On Tragedy

As mentioned in my picks post, the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday experienced a great deal of trauma. This, occurring in the midst of a season that was already trying in a good many ways. When Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel went in to work Saturday morning I'm sure that reality was bearing down on them. The type of reality that weighs heavily on a team with one win through eleven games. The type of reality that comes up when your fans start a "save Kansas City" movement that has more members than people who show up for your games. The type of reality that increases each week when you realize that the end result of this year will be your employer moving on without you.

By mid morning, however, I'm sure that these concerns, worries and thoughts were far from the minds of Pioli and Crennel. These two men, who inspired a great deal of vitriol from a good many persons in the greater Kansas City area, suddenly had real things to deal with. In watching a member of their team, a subordinate, kill himself on company property in front of them, these men were unexpectedly driven into a complex area.

We know that Jovan Belcher took his own life shortly after thanking these men for everything they had done for him. We know that he did this after taking his girlfriends life earlier that morning. What we don't know is why Belcher did this, or if there was even any rationale behind it. The reality is, we may never know. For the majority of us, the lack of resolution will not impede anything, as this story will fade into the news cycle. For those involved with this tragedy, however, the questions will stick forever.

I should acknowledge that this tragedy wasn't even the only NFL related trauma yesterday, as a staffer was found dead at the Cleveland Browns' facility as well. But the common thread between the two, the taking of one's life, is over shadowed by the murder involved in the Kansas City case. One of my favorite writers, Bill Simmons, stated on his twitter handle that the NFL was making a mistake by even playing the game today in Kansas City. For once, Mr. Simmons and I disagree.

I think that thus far the Chiefs have found a remarkable ability to handle everything well. This flies directly in the face of a disastrous year full of mismanagement by the Chiefs staff. The team consulted with the NFL, who initially left some of the decision to them. The team met and decided as a group they wanted to play. Crennel decided he wanted to coach. The team held a moment of silence before the game, most importantly, to remember the victims of domestic violence.

The Chiefs find themselves between a rock and a hard place in this one, for sure. First, should they have played? Having had a very (very) brief existence as an athlete in High School I can say that the effort of coming together as a team has the ability to help heal. Particularly for these men, hurt and damaged by what transpired, doing what they know is essential. To that end, as a professional who endured a tragedy, I know how hard it is to weather. I also know that the longer you wait to return to "normal" the more painful it is. The magnitude of this tragedy will stay with most of these men for their lives. But delaying the return to the life they know would do nothing but create more difficulty and more pain.

Secondly, should Crennel have coached the team? By the same logic I presented above, finding a way to return to normal can help to give room to breath. Crennel, by all accounts, is a good man (albeit not a great head coach). He most likely will carry what he saw with him the rest of his life. If he is anything like those of us who have dealt with a tragedy like this, he will always wonder "what if?". Finding a way to return his life to a semblance of normalcy, if only for a bit, will help him to deal with the very raw pain.

Finally, this is an opportunity to draw together as a fan base, and the tough choice would have been how to do it. If you are a teammate of Belcher, you knew the man and, by all accounts liked the man. If he had simply (for lack of a better word) taken his own life, this would be complex. With the murder-suicide angle, it becomes an impossible road to navigate of complex emotions. I guarantee that there are those in the Chiefs organization who desire a way to acknowledge their teammate. I know how tough the decision to handle the moment of silence must have been. I am thankful that they settled on the right option.

And so, in the end, this moment will pass, and quickly. The year will end, and Pioli and Crennel will be let go. Perhaps with more grace now, and more appreciation from the fans who have wanted them gone, but they will be let go nonetheless. The Chiefs will move on to their next group of management, and try to build a team to compete. The investigation will happen into the murder, and it will be closed. And, so crucial to consider in all of this, a little 3 month old will grow up wondering why. Thank goodness the Chiefs players, and the NFL at large, are already moving to provide for her, because her life has been put on a different track long before she had any control over the direction it was heading.

Tragedy strikes each of us differently. Some have the ability to use the tragedy to remind them of the good times they've had, and then feel joy. Some wonder why, and move on while battling for answers they will never get. Some get stuck in the tragedy, refuse to move past it, and exist in the depths of despair, constantly grieving. Tragedy, grief, and sorrow are complicated things indeed. I wish the best to those dealing with the aftershocks of these tragedies in Kansas City and Cleveland, as well as those dealing with countless other difficulties around the globe. I hope that all involved can find peace.

NFL WEEK PICKS - WEEK 13

My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone involved with the situation in Kansas City. Particularly, due to my line of work, my thoughts go out to the coach, GM and other Chiefs staff who witnessed Javon take his own life. Cris Carter just made a good point about NFL personnel needing to become even better crisis managers. As someone who has gone through a number of trainings on suicide prevention and crisis management, I know that it is important, but can be easier said than done.

Last week against the spread: 6-10
Last week straight up: 10-6

Season against the spread: 99-73-4
Season straight up: 122-53-1

So last week was a rough week for the picks. Even a late rally didn't help the series of bad picks that Sunday morning brought. We'll see if we can get back on the horse.

Thursday Night

Atlanta (+3.5) over New Orleans

Sunday Early

Buffalo (-6) over Jacksonville
Chicago (-3) over Seattle
Indianapolis (+7) over Detroit
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay - Green Bay straight up
Houston (-7) over Tennessee
Kansas City (+5) over Carolina
San Francisco (-8) over St. Louis
New England (-8) over Miami
NY Jets (-6) over Arizona

Sunday Late
Tampa (+10) over Denver - Denver straight up
Oakland (+1) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over San Diego
Pittsburgh (+10) over Baltimore - Baltimore straight up

Sunday Night
 Philadelphia (+11) over Dallas - Dallas straight up

Monday Night
NY Giants (-3) over Washington

NFL Week Picks - Week 12 - Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up: 12-2

Season against the spread: 93-63-4
Season straight up: 112-47-1

Things I'm Thankful For: My fiance, my family, and her family who have welcomed me with such open arms. My job, which challenges me, pushes me to the limit daily, but never ceases to fulfill me. The grace of God, which allows a sinner such as myself to feel the love of God. And those things, not in that order. In the sports world, I'm thankful for:
- a return to relevance from the IU Basketball Team (Go Hoosiers!)
- The 7-1 start by the Bears, at least allowing me to enjoy part of a football season with optimism
- Management at Wrigley who seem competent and driven to build a winner the right way
- A Bulls team that won't win it all, but gives its all every night.
- Having had the chance to watch MJ, the undisputed Greatest Of All Time across all sports.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with these picks. This may be the week. But somehow, some way I'm plugging along with an insanely great picks year. I suppose that is a small consolation prize for my awful fantasy football season.

On to the picks:

Thursday (Turkey Day) Games - The one Thursday of the year when NFL on Thursday DOES NOT suck:

Houston (-4) over Detroit - This year has been a major regression to the mean for the Lions. When they get a sane coach they have the talent to be tough.

Dallas (-3) over Washington - I'm with Bill Simmons: this is the game that Dallas wins, making their fans believe, before blowing it a few weeks down the road.

New England (-7) over NY Jets - I'm surprised there isn't more of a rumbling for Rex Ryan's job after this underwhelming year. Missing Gronk hurts, but I think that New England can cover here. I'd prefer the line be -6 or -5.5 however.

Sunday Early Games:

Bears (PK) over Minnesota - My how the might have fallen. The Bears are suddenly EVEN against the Vikes at home? That's what happens when you go out and get punched in the face and don't fight back, which is what happened on Monday night. It's been a long time since I turned a Bears game off as quickly as I did Monday. In fact, it may have never happened in my life. Monday there was a team that wanted to impose its' will on their opponent, and the Bears rolled over and died. If they lose this game the rest of the year becomes a defacto "Lovie's Last Stand."

Raiders (+10) over Cincinnati - I'll take Cincinnati straight up, but ten points is a lot to lay for a Raiders team that can score, even if it cannot win.

Pittsburgh (-1) over Cleveland - They only lost to Baltimore by three, and now they are barely a favorite against Cleveland? Gotta believe they still have enough D to win the game...

Indianapolis (-3) over Buffalo - Big game for the Bills: if they win they have a chance to sneak back into the playoff discussion. But Indy has been tough at home (4-1) and it feels like an "Andrew Luck leads the Colts to the playoffs" headline is more likely.

Denver (-11) over Kansas City - All my Manning hatred aside, right now he has to be the MVP. It is incredible what he's done coming back from the injury, surgeries, and a full year off. And playing outdoors for the first time. Also, it's easier not to hate him when he's not in Indy. Beside, him leaving cut the number of "Colts fans" by 50%. Thanks Peyton: I'm thankful for you taking your talents to the Rocky Mountains.

Seattle (-3) over Miami - I think Miami's goose may be cooked. Seattle is bad on the road, but Miami has looked a bit lost these last few weeks.

Atlanta (-2) over Tampa Bay - And now the betting has over adjusted, giving a 9-1 Falcons team not enough credit after a few weeks of giving them too much credit. I could see Tampa winning this game, but that line is too tasty.

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville - I find myself again taking way too many favorites for my liking, but not really seeing the favorites as giving too much. I'm glad Chris Johnson could resurrect his season in time for my to trade him and get draft picks for next year. Yes, my friends, I've become Jerry Reinsdorf and waived the white flag.

Sunday Late Games:

Baltimore (-1) over San Diego - That doesn't feel right somehow...

EDIT: San Diego (+1) over Baltimore - I'll role with Norv, who has to be thankful that his owner and GM died a few years ago, and that he's been able to get away with propping them up Weekend at Bernie's style. After all, isn't that a more plausible explanation that believing that Chargers management actually thought it was a good idea to keep Norv as the head coach?

New Orleans (+1) over San Francisco - Yes, I'm sticking with this one. I think the 49ers played out of their mind last week, I KNOW that Harbaugh (great coach, sure) is creating a QB controversy by letting Kapernick get the first team reps, and I suspect that a win here puts the Saints back in the playoff discussion. Who Dat?

St. Louis (+1) over Arizona - Add Ken Wisenhunt to the list of probable fires after the year. Of course, Jeff Fisher's decision to go for two last week when it made no sense doesn't exactly give me faith in him. St. Louis seems to be more stable on offense right now, and they just played San Fran to a tie. Interesting that all three late games are one point spreads... you baited me into three straight dogs Vegas. Well done.

Sunday Night Game:

NY Giants (-3) over Green Bay - for the Bear's sake I hope this is right. The Giants have been abysmal lately, but this feels like a game they'd turn it on and win.

Monday Night Game:

Carolina (-1) over Philadelphia - I just think that the Eagles have completely quit on Andy Reid. And I will not be watching this game.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 11

Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 11-2-1

Season against the spread: 84-59-3
Season straight up: 100-45-1

Thursday night:

Buffalo (-1.5) over Miami - Miami's overrated right now

Sunday early:
Atlanta (-10) over Arizona - I picked the first loss right; I sense a bounce back
Dallas (-8) over Cleveland - This line is too high, but I can't take Cleveland ...
Green Bay (-3) over Detroit - I think Green Bay may win big here...
Cincinnati (-3) over Kansas City - The Bengals are a good bad team, the Chiefs a bad bad team.
NY Jets (+4) over St. Louis - if the Jets lose this one talk starts of Rex Ryan's job.
Washington (-4) over Philadelphia - only question left in Philly is if Andy Reid will survive the year
Tampa Bay (+1) over Carolina - Bucs are sneaky good right now
Houston (-16) over Jacksonville - I believe in the Texans...

Sunday late:
New Orleans (-5) over Oakland - back on the Saints bandwagon; playoffs aren't likely, but they have righted the ship
San Diego (+9) over Denver - Denver to win straight up, but the Norv's have to keep it close, right?
New England (-10) over Indianapolis - Luck isn't Manning yet, and the Colts pass D sucks...

Sunday night:
Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore - Even without Big Ben the Steelers look like they have the D to keep it close

Monday night:
Chicago (+7) over San Francisco - that hit on Cutler was cheap, and the officials helped blow that game. That said, please know that the incompetent offense is YET AGAIN a reason why Lovie needs to be let go. Two concussed QBs mean this line shouldn't be this big.

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 10

Due to a nasty cold that's kept me on my back for four days, only quick picks this week. The lines seemed much more difficult to pick this week, so perhaps Vegas is adjusting. Either way, I wouldn't take these to the bank with my cold holding me back.

Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 10-4

Season against the spread: 75-54-3
Season straight up: 89-43

Thursday Night:

Colts (-3.5) over Jags

Sunday Early:

Giants (-4) over Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6) over Miami
Minnesota (+3) over Detroit
New England (-13) over Buffalo
New Orleans (+1) over Atlanta
Tampa (-3) over San Diego
Denver (-4) over Carolina
Baltimore (-9) over Oakland

Sunday Late:
Seattle (-6) over NY Jets
Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-13) over St. Louis

Sunday Night:
Chicago (-1) over Houston

Monday Night:
Pittsburgh (-13) over Kansas City

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 9 PLUS The Presidential Election

The NFL season hits the midway point, and usually I'd do a retrospective on the preseason picks, tout what I was right on, explain away what I was not so right on, but this year we have an election next Tuesday. And, I think I speak for everyone when I say: THANK GOD the endless barrage of campaign commercials, emails and news releases is about to be over. Republican, Democrat, or anywhere in between I don't know how anyone can feel anything but disgusted with this process after this year.

That said, this week I'll strive to intertwine my football picks with some insight about the presidential election, and then a straightforward pick. First, let's look at how I'm doing through 8 weeks with my picks:

Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 13-1

Season against the spread: 66-49-3
Season straight up: 79-39

In short, I continue to have my best year both against the spread and straight up. You'd expect to do better straight up than against the spread, if only because Vegas would be losing big if it was as easy (or easier) to pick winners against the spread as straight up. That said, the lines have seemed much easier to pick this year than in years past. On to this week's picks:

Thursday Night Game:

Chiefs (+7.5) over San Diego (Chargers straight up)

Okay, we already know that I split on this one because the game happened. Have I mentioned that Thursday night football absolutely, positively sucks yet? Seriously, can we get rid of the NFL "braintrust" who thought this was a good idea yet? My logic behind the (failed) decision to take KC plus the points? As bad as KC is, Norv Turner has a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. He is an awful coach, and I don't even feel a little bit bad about losing the pick against the spread. I can't ever take the Norv Turners as more than a TD favorite.

As far as the Presidential Election goes, Missouri, the "Bell-weather" state, is no longer a swing state. I was there earlier this year, and let me tell you, that state is as reliably Republican as California is Democrat. It's so conservative that there is an outside chance that Akin wins the Senate election after having an honest conversation about how he believes a woman's body can reject semen when being raped if it's "true rape." Yeah, that happened this year, and believe it or not, thanks to a moron hailing from my state it wasn't even the most ridiculous rape comment of the election by a Republican Candidate. 

Sunday Early Games

Denver (-4) over Cincinnati 

Now here's two states that are actual swing states. Before I discuss Colorado and Ohio, let's look at these teams. On the one hand we have a Bengals team that has been hot then cold. They have appeared easy to score on, but intermittently able to score with the best of them. On the other side of the field we have a Broncos team that has lost to the Falcons, the Texans and the Patriots. You know, three of the best teams in the NFL (we think).

As for the states of Colorado and Ohio, both states are heavily in play right now. Romney and Obama are both directing major resources to both states, and Ohio is likely to be the state that keeps us up the longest waiting for the votes to trickle in. If Romney doesn't take Colorado Obama will be on his way to a big victory. The odds on pick here is that Romney takes Colorado by a slim margin, but that Obama takes Ohio by 2-3%. If Obama does take Ohio the road becomes very difficult for Romney, and as such you'll see major hail mary attempts in that state (more on that to come)

Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland

I have a hunch that this will be a bounce back game for the beat up Ravens, although it should be mentioned that Weeden has been better than expected. Continuing with Ohio, I find it interesting that Romney is running ads about Chrysler taking  jobs overseas, which Chrysler execs are quick to discount. That's the type of Hail Mary ads you should be happy to be avoiding if you live in a non-swing state that's being (comparatively) ignored. Don't get me wrong, we are getting plenty of ads here in Hoosier land, but nothing compared with what's blasting Ohio.

Green Bay (-10) over Arizona

Wisconsin is supposedly a swing state. It's not. The dirty secret is that Paul Ryan isn't nearly as popular across the state as Romney would like you to believe. He's a Congressman; therefore, he needs to be popular in a small part of the state. He's not a Senator or Governor. Expect Obama to take Wisconsin by 4-5% and Romney to take Arizona going away. Oh, the game? I see a fifth straight loss for the Cardinals, and the Pack continuing to come on.

Chicago (-3.5) over Tennessee

I can't believe this spread is this low. But, again, after doing everything they could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last week and falling just short, the Bears may be who we have known them to be through the Lovie era: a maddeningly inconsistent team on offense buttressed by a all world defense and special teams. I hope that Cutler isn't hurt, but I suspect he is. Winning this game is essential given the remaining 8 games on the schedule, none of which could be considered a gimmy. As for the election, Illinois is solid blue, Tennessee solid red.

Indianapolis (+3) over Miami

The winner of this game is solidly in the drivers seat for a playoff appearance. While Miami has the far superior defense, I'll take Luck at home getting points. As for the election, the state of Indiana inexplicably went blue in 2008, which was pretty much the only shock of the night for me. Let's just say that I won't be shocked again: the state is back to being it's crazy conservative self. When you look at the stretch of blue you'll see on election night from the north east, through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, Indiana will stand out.

Florida? The bane of the 2000 election will be less exciting this time. Due to a continued jobs and housing crisis you can put this state in Romney's ledger pretty easy. If Florida doesn't swing to Romney by 4-5% you can expect a long night for him. If, however, Florida does go to the GOP candidate quickly and decisively it might be an indicator that state polls have been off for the last few months. Florida should go to Romney, but how easily and quickly it does will go a long way to telling us what kind of night it will be.

Washington (-3) over Carolina

Remember last year when Cam Newton was the next big thing? Now the only reason you hear about him in the news is to debate if it's racist to compare him to Vince Young. Reality is RGIII is the hot new thing, and I think Washington takes this game going away. Obama's biggest win of the night will almost certainly be in the District of Columbia. North Carolina, much like Indiana, will go back to the right after a brief flirtation with the left in the last election.

Detroit (-5) over Jacksonville

This game should be an easy win for Detroit, who needs to find some offensive rhythm and maintain it for a few weeks. We've already covered Florida in the election, so a quick look at Michigan. Will the prodigal son, Romney, come back to take the state? In a word, no.

Houston (-10) over Buffalo

I don't like any lines that are in the double digits this year, but I also think Houston is good and Buffalo is not. I can only hope for a huge game from CJ Spiller for my fantasy team. In the election TX is dead red and NY all blue, so I'll simply say that all those on the East coast are in my prayers.

Sunday Late Games

Oakland (-1) over Tampa

Florida, as we've covered, is for Romney. For the purposes of this game, consider only that the loss of Nicks at guard for the Bucs will hurt the running game quite a bit. This line seems too low, so I'll go with the home team. I do feel like I'm taking too many favorites.

Minnesota (+4) over Seattle

Seattle is 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road. This game is in Seattle. I'll take the Vikings to cover and a final score of Seattle 27 Minnesota 24. As for the election, both these states will go blue, in spite of Romney's campaign suddenly talking about Minnesota being in play.

Pittsburgh (+3) over NY Giants

I'd feel better about this if it wasn't for the emotion of the Giants playing in the Meadowlands. But I think that this is the game where Pittsburgh either announces itself as the contender they've been for years, or starts to quietly fade away. Big Ben is playing great and they need a signature win. As mentioned before, PA will go blue, don't listen to what Romney/Ryan are saying.

Sunday Night Game

Atlanta (+4) over Dallas

As I speak, Notre Dame is trying an improbable comeback. For this game, let me say that Atlanta will lose, and probably more than once. Picking the game they'll drop is the big  challenge. This spread reflects too much money on Dallas. I like Atlanta to cover going away. Just like Romney wins going away in Georgia and Dallas.

Monday Night Game

Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans

As much as I hate to admit it, this is the game Philly needs and New Orleans is cursed as can be this year. The penultimate game of the Michael Vick era, and it happens in New Orleans on the Monday night after Hurricane Sandy decimates the East coast. I like the points, and this gives me four dogs in a row to end. Also, Louisiana goes to Romney easy.

The Presidential Election

Obama 281 to Romney 257

That's my prediction for the final score. How did I get there? Well, here's how the election will break down friends:

Alabama - Romney - 9
Alaska - Romney - 3
Arizona - Romney - 11
Arkansas - Romney - 6
California - Obama - 55
Colorado - Romney - 9
Connecticut - Obama - 7
Delaware - Obama - 3
D.C. - Obama - 3
Florida - Romney - 29
Georgia - Romney - 16
Hawaii - Obama - 4
Idaho - Romney - 4
Illinois - Obama - 20
Indiana - Romney -  11
Iowa - Obama - 6
Kansas - Romney - 6
Kentucky - Romney - 8
Louisiana - Romney - 8
Maine - Obama - 4
Maryland - Obama - 10
Massachusetts - Obama - 11
Michigan - Obama - 16
Minnesota - Obama - 10
Mississippi - Romney - 6
Missouri - Romney - 10
Montana - Romney - 3
Nebraska - Romney - 5
Nevada - Obama - 6
New Hampshire - Obama - 4
New Jersey -  Obama - 14
New Mexico - Obama - 5
New York - Obama - 29
North Carolina - Romney - 15
North Dakota - Romney - 3
Ohio - Obama - 18
Oklahoma - Romney - 7
Oregon - Obama - 7
Pennsylvania - Obama - 20
Rhode Island - Obama - 4
South Carolina - Romney - 9
South Dakota - Romney - 3
Tennessee - Romney -11
Texas - Romney - 38
Utah - Romney - 6
Vermont - Obama - 3
Virginia - Romney - 13
Washington - Obama - 12
West Virginia - Romney - 5
Wisconsin - Obama - 10
Wyoming - Romney - 3


Even if Romney takes Florida, Colorado and Virginia Obama will win the election. I want to stress that I think Florida will go to Romney, but Colorado and Virginia are both toss ups in the definition of the word. Other "swing states" are much more leaning towards Obama. In other words, Obama is the odds on favorites. Enjoy your election drinking games. I'll break it down the night of if I'm so inspired. If not, at least when I make my picks next week there will be no more adds to annoy us.

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 8

Again, due to time, quick picks:

Thursday Night:

Tampa (+5) over Minnesota

Sunday Early:

Chicago (-9) over Carolina
San Diego (-3) over Cleveland
Detroit (-1) over Seattle
Green Bay (-15) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (+4) over Tennessee
St. Louis (+7) over New England (New England straight up)
Miami (+1) over the Jets
Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) over Washington

Sunday Late:

Oakland (+2) over Kansas City
Giants (-1) over Cowboys

Sunday Night:
New Orleans (+6) over Denver

Monday Night:

San Fran (-7) over Arizona

Last week against the spread: 10-2-1
Last week straight up: 11-2

Season against the spread: 57-44-3
Season straight up: 66-38

As always, Thursday Night Football sucks.

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 7

Due to an inordinate amount of paper writing I have to do this weekend, only the picks and none of the witty commentary this week:

Last Week Against The Spread: 5-9 (YUCK!)
Last Week Straight Up:6-8 (Yuck!)

Season Against the Spread:  47-42-2
Season Straight Up: 55-36

Thursday Night Game

Seattle (+8) over San Francisco (49ers straight up)

Sunday Early Games

Buffalo (-3) over Tennessee
Indianapolis (-1) over Cleveland
Green Bay (-6) over St. Louis
Arizona (+7) over Minnesota (Minnesota Straight Up)
Redskins (+6) over NY Giants (Giants straight up)
New Orleans (-1) over Tampa Bay
Dallas (-1) over Carolina
Houston (-7) over Baltimore

Sunday Late Games

Jacksonville (+4) over Oakland
Jets (+11) over New England (Patriots Straight Up)

Sunday Night Game

Pittsburgh (-1) over Cincinnati

Monday Night Game

Chicago (-7) over Detroit  (Ditka (-100) over Jim Schwartz' punk @$$ :-)

As always, Thursday Night Football SUCKS!

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week Six

Last week against the spread: 8-6
Last week straight up: 10-4

Season against the spread: 42-33-2
Season straight up: 49-28

Another solid week last week, finishing ahead against the spread and a solid 10-4 straight up. Eerily, as I look back to my week six picks last year, I started by posting my record, which was as follows:

"Last week against the spread: 9-4
Last week straight up: 10-3
Season against the spread: 38-37-2
Season straight up: 52-25"

So, at this point in the year I am doing much better against the spread and slightly worse straight up. That said, 21 games above .500 straight up isn't bad, and I'll always take nine games up on the spread every five weeks. This week I'm looking to build momentum, but during a dangerous week. Why is this week dangerous, you might ask? In fact, I'll answer this as if my millions (read: three) of readers were asking it aloud:

Question: Mike, why is this week dangerous?

Answer: Thanks millions (read: three) of faithful readers! I'll tell you why it's a dangerous week for me. You see, my fantasy football team has already decided it's not interested in commemorating Aaron Rodgers final season with my team by going for a fourth straight third place finish. Instead, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. To wit, my fiancee moved me up to the number six pick, the worst possible place to draft in our twelve team league this year. Then, Chris Johnson was the only option sitting at number six worth drafting (side note: I was unaware at the time that last year's "down" year for Chris Johnson was actually a great year compared to what he was going to bring to the table this year. In hindsight, I could have drafted Curtis Enis and probably been better off because at least I could cut Enis. But I digress). I followed that up by having Steven Jackson fall to me, then Larry Fitzgerald, then Brandon Lloyd. My draft plan was completely screwed up and the players I wanted kept getting taken right ahead of my pick. I took a plethora of 2nd tier running backs and wide receivers, needing to only hit on one or two to have a great team. I then hit on C.J. Spiller then watched him get injured and now am watching him get stuck in a running back by committee. Needless to say I'm 2-3, scoring nowhere near enough points to fathom making the playoff redraft, and I'm ready to sell off my team for draft picks next year. The problem with this? Nobody in my league wants to trade yet. So that's one reason why this week is dangerous: I'm checked out of fantasy football, so I'm not really paying attention to the other teams. The other reason is much simpler: the Bears are on a bye week, and I work all day Sunday, so I have nothing to draw me in this week.

So, with the challenge of fantasy apathy, a Bears' bye week, and a marathon double shift on Sunday, consider yourself warned: all the signs are there for a picks regression. Still, I'll try.

ON TO THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(New Orleans, Carolina and Jacksonville join Chicago on the bye ... that alone should make gambling more difficult with three stay away teams on the sideline)

Thursday Night Game

Pittsburgh (-5) over Tennessee - My thoughts: Pittsburgh has a running game again, and was able to beat a (supposedly) good Eagles team last week. Tennessee doesn't look good. The sad thing? I'll end up starting Chris Johnson again this week because I have no other good options.

Sunday Day Games

Atlanta (-9) over Oakland - My thoughts: Atlanta should be able to score on Oakland, and Palmer is liable to be down three, pressing, and throw a game ending TAINT (Touchdown After Interception). Or Atlanta might just kill them. Either way, this line would have to be 10+ for me to take the points and Oakland.

Cincinnati (-1) over Cleveland - My thoughts: This is free money, right? Even if Cincinnati is the "good bad team" this year, we also are sure that Cleveland is one of the "bad bad teams" right? Is Andy Dalton currently abducted by aliens? A.J. Green? How does this line makes sense?

St. Louis (+4) over Miami - My thoughts: I'm not sure if St. Louis is the best "good bad team" or the worst "bad good team" but I think I'll take more than three for them against a Miami team due for regression after last week.

Jets (-3) over Indianapolis - My thoughts: The Jets held it together against Houston; I think that Indy had their emotional win last week, and this becomes a defacto must win for Rex and the Jets. This feels like the game the Jets win that starts the "are the Jets going to be ok" talk. You know, the one that comes right before the next lopsided loss restarting the "should Tebow replace Sanchez" talk.

Philadelphia (-5) over Detroit - My thoughts: this game is like a movable object going up against a stoppable force. Andy Reid is a terrible coach. Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach. We will leave this game either thinking that the Eagles are frauds and not very good, or that the Lions are done. I hate giving points when Andy Reid is involved, but Detroit has looked bad, and Philly's defense is actually pretty good.

Tampa Bay (-3) over Kansas City - My thoughts: YUCK! That's my main thought about this game. My second thought would be when a home team is -3 that means Vegas thinks the game is even. The final thought: if you have to make a pick in this game, go against Romeo on the road.

Baltimore (-4) over Dallas - My thoughts: The Raven's disappointing game last week brings this line down way too far. I saw what can be done to Dallas when my Bears did it to them. Baltimore may have some flaws, but that team can do the same to Dallas

Sunday Late Games

Buffalo (+5) over Arizona - My thoughts: Buffalo has looked AWFUL the last two weeks. But Arizona continues to look worse and worse on offense; they have no running game, and no QB to throw the ball to Fitzgerald (remember, he's on my fantasy team so I know this). I'd stay away from this game entirely, but gun to head I'd take the points on the thoughts of a rebound game for Buffalo. (NOTE: After making this pick I found out Dave Wannstedt is the Bills defensive coordinator. That explains how their defense gave up over 1,200 yards in the last two games and nearly 100 points. Needless to say, I might take this game back if I could, but since I already wrote it I'll just hedge saying ARIZONA STRAIGHT UP. Also, how the hell is Dave Wannstedt still getting coaching jobs in football? Would you hire him to coach a pee-wee league team?)

New England (-4) over Seattle - My thoughts: this line seems low, and I like the way that New England is playing. Tough defense, tough running game, a little Brady sprinkled in ... holy crap, did I just time warp back to 2003?

San Francisco (-5) over NY Giants - My thoughts: revenge for the NFC title game. Also, San Fran is playing well, and the Giants just let Brandon Weeden roll 27 points up on them.

Minnesota (+2) over Washington - My thoughts: if Cousins is the QB this is a no brainer: take the points. If RGIII is healthy this becomes more of a tough question.

Sunday Night Game

Houston (-4) over Green Bay - My thoughts: a "season may be on the line early" type game for the Pack. Do you realize they are very close to being 1-4, and that the only team they showed up against was my Bears? Do you realize that if Houston wins this game we'll have the talking heads on ESPN talking all week about how Houston is Super Bowl bound, and the Packers are on life support? Do you realize that I'm a Bears fan, and that the Colts playing the Packers is the only possible scenario where I would root for the Colts ... so I celebrated the Packers' late choke last week? Do you realize I'm answering the "my thoughts" segment with only questions at this point?

Monday Night Game

Denver (+1) over San Diego - My thoughts: A week ago, San Diego was 3-1 and starting to get "the Chargers just MIGHT run away with this division" buzz. I'm amazed how many people forget that Norv Turner is still (inexplicably) coaching this team. Manning wins, both teams come out  3-3, and the buzz goes to "when will Norv get fired?" again. The world will feel more right at that point.


Enjoy football for me everyone, I'll be working. As always, Thursday night football SUCKS.

2012 NFL Picks Week 5 - In Brief

Most of my writing time went to the debate tonight; here's the picks for the week.

Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 14-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I had to count this three times)

Season against the spread: 34-27-2
Season straight up: 39-24

Thursday Night:

St Louis (+1) over Arizona

Sunday Early Games

Cincinnati (-3) over Miami
Green Bay (-7) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-6) over Kansas City
NY Giants (-8) over Cleveland
Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia
Atlanta (-3) over Washington

Sunday Late Games

Seattle (+3) over Carolina
Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville
Tennessee (+6) over Minnesota
New England (-7) over Denver
San Francisco (-10) over Buffalo

Sunday Night Game

San Diego (+4) over New Orleans

Monday Night

Jets (+9) over Houston (Houston straight up)

The First Presidential Debate: A Running Diary

Well, with an interesting presidential election looming (see my previous picks column for a break down of why it's interesting), how could I not do a live blog with my blow by blow reaction? After watching some pre-debate coverage on Fox News and MSNBC I finally settled on CNN to watch the debate, largely due to Wolf Blitzer's awesome beard. Man do I miss Tim Russert.

As always, I write the time stamp and what my thoughts are. Tonight's debate was supposed to focus on domestic politics, and we'll see how well Jim Lehr does holding to that. The general consensus seems to be that Romney needs to do a great job and win this debate going away to get the momentum he's been searching for. The Democrats seem to be saying that they believe the race is too close to call in spite of polling momentum going their way. Not bad to play dead and hope that increases your chance to see voter turnout up. Personally, I think that this debate hinges on if Romney can attack Obama without seeming like he's attacking Obama. Romney is the superior debater historically, but he can be knocked off kilter when his opponent manages to counter his rebuttals and attack lines while moving the point of conversation. Without further delay, here we go:

8:57pm - Little mentioned but potentially huge fact: Obama hasn't debated since 2008, whereas Romney debated somewhere north of 20 times in the Republican Primary alone. At least it felt that way. Fact check...Wikipedia says twenty on the head.

9:01pm - I feel like there should be A) Gambling odds for inane things like "over under 45.5 times the phrase 'middle class' is mentioned tonight" and B) a drinking game where you drink every time something like that is said. Wolf Blitzer tells me that Obama won the coin toss to go first, and Romney gets to go last. Doesn't it feel like Obama should have deferred to the last response? Is that even allowed? Actually, who am I kidding: as a Bears fan Obama probably is going to wait to get to the podium, look around confused, then call a time out.

9:04pm - Obama in the blue tie, Romney in red. I feel like if I was in this debate I'd wear the other guy's color just to screw with them. Economy starts with a question on jobs... and we're off. Romney is writing notes on Obama wishing Michele a happy 20th anniversary.  One minute in and Obama is still setting up his answer. He ended up settling on setting up the paradigm that Romney thinks it's all about tax cuts, and whereas he described a diversified approach centered on education.

9:07pm - Romney hit well with joke about Obama spending his anniversary with him, then goes right into multiple stories from American people. Strong start by Romney, quickly describing a dichotomy between not only he and Obama, but quickly countering Obama's claim that his approach is top down. Still, after two minutes he didn't really get into any policy specifics. He did, however, hit Obama by claiming his approach is "trickle down" government. Did he just hit Reagan's legacy?

9:10pm - Obama counters by talking more about education. Seems dangerously close to pandering to the hall (at a University) rather than going for the viewers at home. He then transitions into talking about tax code, then energy. Obama's attempt seems to be to go after Romney on the tax issue while saying "I'm the authority on education and energy." First mention of the deficit tonight. First hit on Romney's tax plan from Obama.

9:12pm - Romney gives a rebuttal that says that high income people will not get a break under him... then uses Biden's terminology that the middle class is "crushed" twice. Anyone want to be that there will be a commercial showing Romney and Biden back to back saying the middle class is being "crushed" soon?

9:15pm - So Romney was asked to ask the president a question, then went on a multi-minute rant. He did say "by the way, I like coal." I want Obama to say "I love lamp" pretty bad here. At any rate, Romney went way long and didn't ask a question. It sounds to me like Romney is describing a tax plan that does little but shuffle the chips around at best: cut taxes, eliminate exemptions, deficit gone? Doesn't add up. Obama counters by saying that he did what he said he would: cut taxes for the middle class. Obama's going intellectual with his response, which makes him sound like Kerry/Gore ... not the contrast he wants.

9:18pm - Romney says that Obama is misrepresenting ... but doesn't explain how. Then he calls Obama a liar without saying it directly. Romney promises he will not under any circumstances raise taxes on middle income families. Obama comes right back at Romney saying he ran on a tax plan for eighteen months, and now is saying his "big bold idea is never mind." He then comes back with "it's math. It's arithmetic."  I really get the feel, only eighteen minutes in, that these guys don't really like each other. Obama brings up Clinton first, and tells the American people he wants to go back to the tax rates that encouraged Clinton era growth.

9:22pm - Obama goes for a Trump joke that seems to miss. At the present time Romney doesn't look nearly as comfortable as Obama. Jim Lehr tries to get things back on track and Romney talks over him quite a bit. Romney hits Obama on his tax plan hurting small businesses more; he also mentions Bowls-Simpson first. Obama goes right back at the tax issue, speaking right to the American people.

9:25pm - Obama ties Romney's approach to Bush directly for the first time. He then directly ties his approach to Clinton. So there you have it: A third Bush term, or a fourth Clinton term. I'm glad we could simplify this. Lehr still has not gotten them off the first subject, he tries again, and Romney talks over it again. Romney keeps saying "that's not my plan" and then says his plan is not like anything that's been done before.

9:27pm - we finally move to the second segment, this one on the deficit. Romney articulates three options to cut the deficit. Romney than says that he likes Big Bird, but will stop the subsidy for PBS. Basically, he'll cut taxes to grow the economy, then cut programs. Obama's responds by going back to Bush and illustrating the state of the deficit and how it got here. A major strength here, and Obama gets on his wheel horse. I'm not sure how he can own an issue that he's struggled so much with, but he does. Obama does great explaining his balanced approach and then contrasting Romney as unbalanced.

9:32pm - Finally we get some back and forth ... might see the gloves come off a bit. Romney says that he has his own plan and it's not Simpson-Bowls, but that Obama should have grabbed on to Simpson Bowls. If I remember correctly the House shot that plan down. Romney slams taxes again "you raise taxes, you kill jobs." Obama looks annoyed, not a great thing for him. Romney states emphatically that he has ruled out increasing revenue entirely. Romney keeps talking over Lehr.

9:35pm - Obama now goes after the oil industry tax rates. I'm confused: what happened to the talk about the deficit. Use of Exon Mobile as a straw man by Obama here. Obama says he wants to do the same thing with closing loopholes that Romney says he wants to do, only he can actually say what he wants to do, not just that he will do it. Obama's first use of an "everyday American" story to four by Romney.

9:37pm - Twix break... mmmm..... Twix ....

9:39pm - Romney confronts Obama for lying a second time (again, without saying it directly). Obama is the first person to mention Reagan. We've moved on to Social Security. Obama goes to his grandmother to set up his argument. I'm shocked that Obama says "you don't need a major structural change to make sure social security is there for the future." Absolutely shocked.

9:43pm - Romney goes right after Obama on the Medicare cuts, saying he'd put the money right back in. Well, not exactly right after: he was on different chain of thinking then suddenly remembered he was supposed to be against "Obamacare" and switched course. Obama tries to get some footing by going after Romney's voucher program, but he stumbles out of the corner trying to establish this point. Obama then embraces the "Obamacare" term and illustrates why a repeal would increase cost on seniors.

9:48pm - Neither candidate has had an "ah ha" moment yet. I'd be inclined to say Romney is winning on logic, but Obama is winning in terms of presentation. Romney seems edgy and aggressive. In terms of speaking time Obama has opened a small lead over Romney. In other news, I kinda wish this was a foreign policy debate. I'm starting to think that I should start work on my NFL picks this week.

9:53pm - "Does anybody out there think that the problem we've had was due to too much regulation on wall street?" Obama scores there. Romney comes swinging back. I'm on to salt water taffy.

9:58pm - Moving to health care. First time we've heard the term Affordable Care Act. Romney opens up by talking about the cost of health care, then says that "Obamacare" is adding to cost. For the record, "Obamacare" hasn't had a negative impact on my company's bottom line. Interesting the Romney never smiles with his teeth. He just looks tight and uncomfortable.

10:00pm - Obama goes in to the positives of the ACA. Lehr is trying to hold the line, but failing. Can we send him out to pasture? I miss Tim Russert. Text in from my mother noting that Romney's been too aggressive. Obama looks much more comfortable on stage than Romney.

10:07pm - Romney blatantly lies about his "plan" by stating his plan covers pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26. He says these were already staples of the private market. If he thinks that he's out to lunch. He's also all but saying "death panel" repeatedly.

10:10pm - Obama goes through a number of things that Romney has promised tonight but outlines how he hasn't said anything about how he's going to do it. Romney barrels over Jim Lehr to get a response he didn't have the right to according to debate rules.

10:14pm - Jim Lehr has been pretty much worthless tonight. Now we are on to the role of government. Obama's first response is to keep American's safe and to create frameworks to help people to succeed. He then illustrates how past instances of the government investing have led to dividends.

10:17pm - Romney goes back to the constitution, thereby not answering the question. Obama continues to stretch out his time advantage. Now talking about student loans.

10:22pm - And here comes the blow on Romney's statement that people should just borrow from their parents to go to school. Obama's not scoring well on this topic, and Romney AGAIN calls Obama a liar without doing so directly. The lack of political acumen shocks me. Romney goes after the green energy campaigns again. It's amazing to me that he could be so short sighted on energy.

10:25pm - Getting close to the wrap up point, and Lehr did such a poor job that they missed an entire topic. He finishes up on partisan gridlock. Romney gives a pretty nondescript answer. Obama has a tougher standard with this question to hit. He responds that he will meet with anyone as long as the goal is helping further the opportunities of the American people. Obama manages to get a Bin Laden references in as well. He finishes up with nearly a  minute advantage in speaking time, but it felt like Romney was the person refusing to stop talking most of the time tonight. Good job by Obama in that regard.

10:28pm - Obama stumbles out of the gate on his closing statement. He has had a hard time with transitions tonight. He didn't really go anwhere, but Romney goes right to the core and hits his talking points without any issue. A strong finish by Romney, who wanted to go last exactly for this reason.

Final Verdict: Romney did a great job staying on topic and Obama never took him out of his comfort zone. From a standpoint of actual academic topics the debate was nearly a draw, with perhaps a slight edge to Romney. Obama didn't really go after Romney much at all, nothing about any of the major attack points. Obama clearly looked more comfortable however, and if JFK v Nixon tells us anything, its that the person who looks more presidential sometimes takes a big advantage.

2012 NFL Picks Week 4 ***Plus Presidential Polls***

Well, the combination of a poor performance by the Bears offense (albeit with another great defensive/special teams performance), plus my fantasy team continuing to crap the bed from a team that looked great on paper to one that can't function (thanks to my boss, a life long Bills fan for jinxing CJ Spiller for me), plus the awful officiating culminating in the officials blowing the Sunday and Monday night games ... yeah, I'm borderline out on the NFL until the real officials are back. Which, incidentally, looks like it might be soon. Or not. Really, who the hell knows?  (If you didn't take the time to follow those links, ESPN right now says "Deal between NFL, Refs very close" while Sports Illustrated says "NFL, Referees still not close to a deal." I LOVE headlines and the 24 hour a day news cycle.)

So, with that said, I thought I'd take a look at the shocking reality that is becoming this presidential election cycle. If you've read my political breakdowns here before, you know that I looked at the Republican Primary season from a "who is most likely to win" schema. I will view the general election the same way. That said, some general pointers from history indicate that:

- Presidents with economies in recession don't win re-election.
- A President with an economy this poor hasn't won re-election since FDR
- Barack Obama is the President.

Pretty simple, right? The economy has continued an uber slow recovery, barely creeping along at times. The housing market continues to be in shambles. The Congress hasn't accomplished a thing since the midterm elections split the House and the Senate in 2010. Historically, this election would look like 1976, 1980, or 1992. In each of those elections a weak incumbent, hamstrung by issues, faded quickly and ended up being defeated. 1980 (Reagan over Carter) and 1992 (Clinton over H.W. Bush) are particularly pertinent examples. To wit:

- With Carter, the nation's unemployment rate sat at 7.5% when he took office in 1977. It went steadily down, getting under 6% through much of 1979, but in 1980, an election year, the rate went back up into the 7.2-7.8% rate. Carter also faced a major crisis in the Middle East (the Iranian Hostage situation) and high energy (read: GAS) costs. Keep in mind: unemployment actually exploded under Reagan's first term , eventually going over 10% for ten concurrent months between September 1982 and June of 1983. It started declining at that point, however, and by November of 1984 (election time) the rate was at a much more comfortable 7.4%. You know, .1% less than it was when high unemployment helped to undo Carter in 1980. The message, as always? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Whereas unemployment was heading in the wrong direction for Carter, Reagan could argue that things were headed in the right direction. Incidentally, they were proven "right" as unemployment continued to plummet during Ronnie's 2nd term, down to sub 6% his entire last year. 

- With Bush, he took over a stable economy that held under 6% unemployment his entire first year. But then those evil economic forces started to creep in and the unemployment rate slowly started creeping up. By 1992 the rate climbed back over 7% (October 1991 to be exact) and stayed over 7% throughout 1992. Although H.W.'s foreign policy was generally (and honestly still is) something to be commended, the economic difficulty brought in Clinton, who saw unemployment rates that Reagan could only dream of, seeing 42 straight months under 5% (and even some months under 4%) to end out his term. During the "Dubya" administration rates held fairly steady, until the end where rates made it to 7% by the time he left office.

Now, if rates over 7% indicate a candidate's doom, Obama's rates above 8% (after three years sitting between 9-10%) should spell certain doom. Of course, if it were that easy, Mitt Romney should be celebrating right now. Right? After all, both Reagan and Clinton were able to breath pretty easy. However, look at the polls right now, and you find a different reality. Every set of polling data that comes out looks better and better for Obama, worse and worse for Romney. Today's Quinnipiac poll shockingly shows Obama up by DOUBLE DIGITS in three major swing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. And while this poll shows the largest margins of all polls, it continues the absolute trend among polls moving towards Obama. I won't take the time to break them all down here, but this link gives you a break down of each and every reputable poll. The question, simply put, isn't IF Obama is in the lead, but HOW MUCH is Obama in the lead. Honestly, the more this continues trend this way the more the question becomes: does Romney even have a punchers chance?

So, why is Obama bucking history? I'm not sure I have the answer, but I do know this: Romney needs an unbelievable debate performance, starting next Wednesday, to have even a wing and a prayer of salvaging this thing. Needless to say, I'll try to clear out my schedule to live blog the debate next week. It sure as hell interests me more than the NFL's crappy replacement officials and my awful fantasy football team.

On to the picks:

Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
Last week straight up:8-8

Season against the spread: 25-21-2
Season straight up: 25-23

Thursday Night Game

Baltimore (-13) over Cleveland - Moral of the story: I fully believe Baltimore can blow this line and win by one or two ... but I still can't bet on Cleveland.

Sunday Early Games

Atlanta (-8) over Carolina - Moral of the story: after last week's game against San Diego, is this line high enough?

New England (-5) over Buffalo - no (good) RBs healthy in Buffalo, New England can't lose three in a row... can they?

Minnesota (+5) over Detroit - Moral of the story: I just have a hunch, particularly if Stafford is out.

San Diego (-1) over Kansas City - Moral of the story: I still don't believe in Romeo.

St. Louis (+3) over Seattle - Moral of the story: Bad karma for last week's replacement ref job over Green Bay.

San Francisco (-5) over NY Jets - Moral of the story: Revis out for the year is a huge blow. No offense, struggling defense, and I bet San Fran comes to play.

Tennessee (+13) over Houston - Moral of the story: Houston continues to play like a Super Bowl contender, but this line just feels to high. I'll take Houston to win the game, however.

Sunday Late Games

Denver (-7) over Oakland - Moral of the story: Oakland is confusing me, but I think Peyton is due for a semi-Peyton game.

Arizona (-6) over Miami - Moral of the story: Fool me once, shame on Arizona. Fool me three times (and counting) ...

Cincinnati (-3) over Jacksonville - Moral of the story: I am not glad I ended up with Chris Johnson instead of MJD on my fantasy roster.

Green Bay (-8) over New Orleans - Moral of the story: Good karma for the game on Monday.

Washington (+3) over Tampa Bay - Moral of the story: RGIII can move the pocket; Josh Freeman can't seem to get things done. That said, I need to watch this closely because with all the injuries in Washington I might be missing the bus here.

Sunday Night Game

NY Giants (+1) over Philadelphia - Moral of the story: I'm getting close to out on Philly

Monday Night Game

Chicago (+4) over Dallas - Moral of the story: Both offensive lines are ... offensive. I think the extra time off helps Chicago, and I want this very badly for my Uncle.

Until next time, Thursday night football sucks. Replacement refs suck more!

Losing The Fire: The P.O.V. Review of "Away From The World"

Growing up listening to Dave Matthews Band I wore my copy of Under the Table and Dreaming out. Listening to the album on my walkman, I grew to appreciate the complexity of the music, the use of the sax and violin, and the driving, pushing music mixed in with slower songs. The album flowed, and it was just enjoyable.

The second album the band released (Crash; although Remember Two Things technically precedes both albums) had a bit more edge, but still produced the mix of larger scale songs and slower tracks. By 1998's Before These Crowded Streets I was all in on Dave Matthews Band. While that album took me the better part of a decade to truly appreciate, there is no doubt that the complexities that permeate the first two albums continued through the third installment.

By the release of Everyday, (following the benching of The Lillywhite Sessions; eventually released in slightly watered down form as Busted Stuff) the band seemed to be searching for a different direction. Everyday's pop centric feel was a stark departure from the first three albums, and Stand Up's highly political feel seemed much smaller scale than what the band had been capable of. While most fans agree that 2009's Big Whiskey and the Groo-Grux King was an inspired effort, even this return to glory of sort left true fans longing for something.

But what? As the band "took off" the summer of 2011 to focus on developing a new album most fans took the news to be what it appeared to be on the surface: the band had ground out 20 years of seemingly endless touring, and so they deserved a year off. Yet, between the lines cracks were showing: many members of the band seemed to questioning taking time off. In Charlottesville, VA, in the penultimate show of the 2010 tour Dave himself dropped perhaps the biggest piece of information to that end. That night, in the midst of perhaps the best two night stand the band had put together since the early 2000s, Dave discussed the Band's decision to take a year off. He reflected on on the death of founding band member and close friend Leroi Moore, and then stated that he sometimes wondered "what the hell" he was doing by taking a year off. As a member of that sold out arena that night I can tell you that the general feeling from the crowd was pretty much the same.

In that moment you could see the starts of the ambivalence that Dave feels towards his career at the present time. Throughout the subsequent "off" year (composed of four "Caravans" where the band played three night stands in New Jersey, Chicago, New York (four nights, counting the hurricane), and the Gorge) showed a great deal of energy from Dave, giving hope to the idea that time off, plus some creative studio time, was going to help build on Big Whiskey's momentum and lead to a Renaissance of sorts for the band. Coupled with the news that Steve Lillywhite, the producer of the first three albums as well as much of the material which ended up surviving The Lillywhite Sessions to make the Busted Stuff cut, would be producing the album, expectations were sky high for the new album.

And it was under that set of expectations that the 2012 summer tour began. All outward indication was that the band had missed touring the country (Stefan even indicated that he disliked the caravan set up so much that it wouldn't happen again). A smaller, more compact summer tour schedule was released, which was a bit of a head scratcher, but made some sense given the equally surprising announcement that the album wouldn't be released until September, after the summer tour. Perhaps the band was still working on material, wanted to road test some of it, and was planning on using a lighter schedule to help put the finishing touches on the new album.

The first new song confirmed to be on the album was "Mercy," which made its' debut on the Jimmy Falon show staring President Obama. The song felt eerily like a souped up, slower version of the same political sentiment that got the band into trouble with 2005's Stand Up, but it was just one song, and it was one song played without the band backing Dave up. The second track released, "Gaucho," was dropped in typical DMB fashion: a free release to members of the fan association on the evening of the first summer tour show. The song continued with the political theme, but involved the full band to create a great sound behind the struggling chorus lines. Still, if one had to surmise Dave's central thesis after two songs, it could be pretty easily drawn from the two songs released as being "Obama hasn't followed through, the world is going to hell, we've got to do this ourselves or else our kids won't believe in the possibility for change."

The quality musicianship behind "Gaucho" hid this overall lack of driving lyrics well, but the ensuing debuts of "If Only" and "The Riff" served only to misdirect it. The band felt like it was being kept with a muzzle on it at times throughout these songs. It was almost the opposite of the way that Big Whiskey managed to make the band the dramatic center of the group again. Coupled with the confirmation that "Sweet," a song which I saw the debut of at the Chicago caravan the year before, was going to be on the album, and suddenly we were roughly halfway through an unreleased album. Taking stock of it I came to the conclusion that this album would most likely not resonate with me right now, but would be much more meaningful in ten years. I came to this conclusion because much of the material seemed to center lyrically on a depressed melancholy mood wondering if the world was going to hell, what that would mean for one's children, and how to keep the spark alive in one's marriage.

There was even precedent for this: as mentioned above, it took me until my college years to fully appreciate the lyrical depth found in Before These Crowded Streets; whereas I initially thought the album lacked compared to the first two, I now hold the opinion that it is probably the group's crowing achievement. And so I prepared to digest the rest of the album through this schema, expecting to be underwhelmed by the album.

Meanwhile, I saw the group seven times throughout the summer, mostly coming away impressed by the shows. The first show, in Cleveland, was not great, but was salvaged by a Halloween/Tripping Billies encore. This encore would become a semi-staple of the summer tour, perhaps an indicator that the group (which had generally buried Halloween) was trying to make fans happy. Conversely, it could also be an indicator that the group was running cold and needed to bust out songs they usually saved for special occasions to drive up fan reaction. The show in Virginia Beach wasn't bad, and the two night stops in Noblesville and East Troy both lived up to their high standards. The final show, in Detroit, used the same ending of Halloween and Billies to drive up the crowd energy which had been somewhat lacking. Through seven shows I'm still not sure what to make of the group, but it seems like they were having to work harder to make average crowds happy (Cleveland, VA Beach and Detroit) but were able to play like they used to in front of crowds they felt safe with (Noblesville, East Troy).

And then, finally, the album was released. Not surprisingly, the music of the album was restrained, but great when it was allowed to shine ("Belly, Belly Nice," "Broken Things" and "Drunken Soldier" in particular shine through). Surprisingly, however, the lyrics were even worse than the first five songs would have suggested. Sluggish, feeling half baked, the lyrics often seemed to lack the full development you'd expect of a finished album. Many songs have choruses which lack depth, and even songs (like "Drunken Soldier") which seem to be on the verge of traditional DMB big scale lyrical genius end up falling short.

So what does it all mean? I firmly believe, particularly after reading and listening to a number of interviews with Dave it is painfully evident that the lead man of the band is not sure he wants to continuing doing this. The anticipation over a fall tour which looks more and more like it won't happen only serves to drive this point home: new album, with it's strength in the playing of the band, and there is no pending tour. Matthews lyrics are completely lacking, and the band feels muzzled and incapable of overcoming the lacking lyrics. Is it really a surprise that the members of the band who seem most invested in continuing to create more music (Carter, Stefan, and probably Rashawn Ross) are being held back by the front man who's name and voice is the central part of the band?

Compare this to Pearl Jam, with lead singer Eddie Vedder, who manage to continue to pump out new music and reinvent themselves through the years. Whereas Eddie continues to find new ways to express old sentiments, as well as new subjects to explore, Dave Matthews seems mired in... happiness. When you look at the songs that bring the best out of Dave's lyrical development, there is typically two inspiring forces doing the driving. The first is angst: whether of lost love, drug abuse, or confusion over life in general, angst is a central and dark passenger on many classic DMB tracks. The second force, big scale political/spiritual issues has led to the other classic DMB tracks. But now, with a wife, three children, and a comfortable lifestyle, Dave lacks the angst necessary and seems uninterested by tackling the bigger issues.

Sure, he'll take on Obama's failings and the issues with American politics, but he's doing so in a small scale, "Mercy" sort of way. Even his bigger picture attempts, such as the verses in "Gaucho" which paint a beautiful picture of human cultural/political development, he comes to a chorus which simply implores that we "gotta do much more than believe if we really wanna change things." Compare this with the burning drive in "Last Stop" or the melancholic summary of human development in "Dreaming Tree" and you find that "Gaucho" is loaded with potential, yet is impotent due to lacking lyrics.

And, honestly, Dave Matthews deserves this. Great music generally stems from the angst experienced by the musicians or witnessed by them. Dave hit the nail on the head in the pop single "Funny the Way it is" off of Big Whiskey when he mused that "somebody's broken heart becomes your favorite song." When Dave wrote songs about his broken heart, or about his lack of certainty over why we exist, or about where society is going wrong, or why there is war in the Middle East and even humanizing Christ, we could all relate. These were songs the average person could put on and say "yeah, I get it." The vast majority of people can relate to falling on their knees begging someone, anyone to help them make sense of it all, and fearing their own mortality ("When I was young I never think about it, now I can't get it out of my mind"). Now? Dave writes lyrics about things he thinks he should write things about. He's trying to write about broken hearts, but more through the schema of marriage rather than the angst of not having anyone. He writes about his son growing up, but doesn't seem to have a voice to lend to it. He still tries to tackle political issues, but seems to be throwing his hands up and saying "well, I don't know what to do, but I know it's not this, and I'm just not happy with it." He touches on the uncertainty our existence, but the gets lazy with the lyrics (again, "Drunken Soldier").

In sum, Dave Matthews lacks the fire he did when he was younger. This summer he seemed happy to rest on his reputation by busting out all the rarely played epic favorites he knew would fire the crowd up. I wonder now if the band didn't do that because they understood that their mini-renaissance in Big Whiskey was driven by an angst (following Leroi Moore's death) that they couldn't keep going. Dave is happy, comfortable, and tired of the pressure of touring and developing new songs. I think he doesn't want to go there anymore because his angst, the great energy behind the group's high points, is far behind him. Whereas Pearl Jam has managed to reinvent themselves through the years, Dave Matthews Band still is what it always was. The recipe just doesn't work as well when you try to mix it without the fire.

Album Breakdown:

1. Broken Things - 3.5/5
2. Belly Belly - 3/5
3. Mercy - 2/5
4. Gaucho - 3/5
5. Sweet - 3/5
6. The Riff - 3.5/5
7. Belly Full - 4/5
8. If Only - 3.5/5
9. Rooftop - 3/5
10. Snow Outside - 3.5/5
11. Drunken Soldier - 4.5/5

Total: 3.3/5 album rating

2012 NFL Picks Week 3

Sometimes I am very glad that I don't bet copious amounts of money on the NFL. Last week was one of those times. After two weeks, one eighth of the way through the season, almost everything I thought I knew at the season's onset is being called into questions. The AFC East is a bunch of 1-1 teams, with each team having one game where it looked like a potential division champion and one game looking like a scrub. Arizona, one of my picks to be the laughing stock of the league, is 2-0 with a victory over New England, my preseason pick to win it all. Above all else, my Bears proved emphatically that Lovie still has not learned to game plan, or at least that he has no idea how to go after the Packers.

Looking at this another way, consider the following:

- six teams are 2-0; of those teams, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Houston and maybe San Diego can be expected, while Arizona couldn't have been.
- 20 teams (including the entirety of the NFC North and AFC East are 1-1, most of them looking great one week and awful the next.
- The remaining six teams are 0-2; of those teams New Orleans might be the biggest surprise, but Kansas City has certainly surprised me with their level of stink (roped in by Romeo Crennel again!)

Twenty teams doing a Jekyll/Hyde act ... I suppose that explains a bit of why I have no idea who to pick this week. However...

9-6-1 against the spread. That was my record last week, which shocked me (again, I struggled with the late games). 9-7 straight up. In a week that felt totally hectic, my picks weren't actually that bad. So what to make of all of it? I have a few thoughts on the NFL right now:

1. The replacement officials have added a degree of variability to the product on the field. The Rams-Redskins game was the most blatantly physical game in the better part of a decade. The Falcons-Broncos game showed the same thing: teams are looking for ways to take advantage of the rules. Mike Lombari was on the Score (670 AM Chicago) this week and stated that he hasn't seen one instance of the illegal contact call made this year. This rule, remember, was the "Peyton Manning Rule," instituted after Bill Polian whined to the NFL about the Patriots playing physical defense on the Colts WRs. Essentially, you can't contact a receiver at all after 5 yards ... except the first two games of this year when, apparently, you can. The officials have yet to completely blow a game, at least as near as I can tell (and please understand that I've only seen one game this year so far: Bears V Colts). But the impact of the officials is vastly changing the way teams are playing.

2. The regression of the big three is fully in progress. Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were heads and shoulders above all others in the league. This year all three are playing much more human. Take it from me (starting Rodgers on my fantasy team): this is very real. It has also led to those three starting the year 2-4. If I had given you that bet at the start of the year you would have said they'd have more than two wins.

3. With all the young QBs starting in the league right now teams don't have the consistency they might have had with a veteran hand at the helm. Couple that with some atrocious offensive lines (Chicago and Pittsburgh) and you have a huge number of teams that will look all world one week, and worth of the top pick in the draft the next.

If I had to do a power ranking of the NFL teams, grouped by where I see them fitting into the big scheme, it would look this way:

Top Pick Here We Come! (The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes)

32. Oakland (0-2) - After making Ryan Tannehill look like Joe Montana, I believe Oakland is that bad.
31. Cleveland (0-2) - I still don't believe in Brandon Weeden.
30. Kansas City (0-2) - And that's how my AFC West pick loses me after two games. ROMEO!!!!!
29. Jacksonville (0-2) - I still don't believe in Blaine Gabbert.
28. Tennessee (0-2) - Their offensive line is downright offensive, leading to Chris Johnson getting 24 yards on 19 carries, leading to my fantasy team completely being a nightmare. Thanks Tennessee offensive line.
27. Miami (1-1) - AND I still don't believe in Ryan Tannehill
26. Arizona (2-0) - Yeah, I still don't believe. Also, I might be a bit upset that Larry Fitzgerald had 4 yards receiving last week. Yes, he's on my fantasy team.

The Best of the Bad Teams (good enough to rope you in, bad enough to blow a game when you bet on them)

25. Minnesota (1-1) - Ponder is probably the second best QB on the roster, yet he starts.
24. Indianapolis (1-1) - Luck will be up and down this year, but looks like he has the tools. Again, however, a porous offensive line.

The Team That Might Just Be Screwed This Year (as if bounty gate didn't already prove that)

23. New Orleans (0-2) - This just seems like the type of year where everything that can go wrong will go wrong. If I was Drew Brees I'd take out insurance against a significant injury.

The Complete Enigmas (teams that could go either way, and have huge question marks)

22. Carolina (1-1) - Is there a running game in Carolina?
21. St. Louis (1-1) - Is Sam Bradford a franchise QB?
20. Buffalo (1-1) - Is there talent here, or is it just an illusion? What is Ryan Fitzpatrick?
19. Seattle (1-1) - Should Russell Wilson really be starting over Matt Flynn?
18. Washington (1-1) - Can this offense adapt and gain complexity?
17. Cincinnati (1-1) - Can the Bengals play with the big boys? They sure looked bad against Baltimore.
16. Tampa Bay (1-1) - Are the Bucs 10-6 quality (2010) or as bad as last year? Can Schiano coach with the big boys?
15. Detroit (1-1) - Can a team win without any semblance of a running game? Also, can a team survive a coach who struggles with emotional control?
14. Dallas (1-1) - Can their offensive line block like they did against the Giants, or will they be as porous as they were in Seattle?
13. Chicago (1-1) - Will Lovie ever be able to game plan for a better team? Can the offensive line ever learn to block? Will they stay health? At what point will Urlacher punch Lovie for wasting his prime with stupid offensive schemes? And, above all else, is Cutler a leader?
12. NY Jets (1-1) - Good Sanchez? Bad Sanchez? Wither Tebow Christ?
11. Pittsburgh (1-1) - Again, porous offensive line, aging defense, no running game... can this team win with great coaching and Big Ben?
10. Denver (1-1) - Can Peyton stay healthy? Can he throw deep down field? How will he do now that his remaining 14 games are outdoors?

The Teams With The Talent To Win (should be factor because...)

9. San Diego (2-0) - They've had talent for awhile... but they still have Norv...
8. Baltimore (1-1) - They might have a more dynamic offense ... but are they getting old, and is Flacco consistent enough?
7. Green Bay (1-1) - they still have Rodgers ... but has he peaked?
6. Philadelphia (2-0) - they are talented ... but barely beat the Browns...
5. NY Giants (1-1) - They won it all last year ... but are off to an unimpressive start.
4. Atlanta (2-0) - They should have a clear run to the division title ... but is Matt Ryan ready to make the leap?
3. New England (1-1) - They have more defense this year ... but is Brady getting over the hill?
2. Houston (2-0) - They have offense and defense and have looked as good as they should.
1. San Francisco (2-0) - They look locked in and ready to go. Period.

With all that as the background, on to the picks:

- Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
- Last week straight up: 9-7
- Season against the spread: 16-15-1
- Season straight up: 17-15

Thursday Night

Giants (+3) over Carolina - This line seems off to me, so I'll take the Giants + the points in a game that ESPN is telling me is a toss up. Also, I just want to reiterate how absolutely stupid Thursday night football games are. On my list of reasons why Roger Goodell is the worst commissioner this side of Gary Bettman, this is somewhere on the top ten.

Sunday Early Games

Bears (-8) over St. Louis - I am giving Lovie one more chance: I'll be able to watch this one and I have some faith that the problem is just that Green Bay has some combination of his and Cutler's number. But if they don't look great in this game it might be time for the year's first "why can't we fire Lovie, this guy sucks" blog rants.

Buffalo (-3) over Cleveland - Assuming that the Bills actual level of performance fall somewhere between their week one debacle against the Jets and last week's evisceration of the Chiefs, this line seems right.

Tampa Bay (+8) over Dallas (Dallas straight up) - I think Dallas will bounce back to win, but I get the feeling that Tampa will be a tough out. Of course, if Dallas loses my uncle will get a week of "what's wrong with the Cowboys" sports radio... which is nice.

Detroit (-4) over Tennessee - I've exited the Titans bandwagon. I just hope that the Lions porous defense can resurrect Chris Johnson's corpse for my fantasy team's well being.

Indianapolis (-3) over Jacksonville - Really this comes down to a simple formula in my mind: Luck > Gabbert.

Jets (-3) over Miami - This just feels like the Jets bouncing back to establish their place as one of the better teams that isn't really that good. Miami, on the other hand? I'll just say that Rex Ryan might give up his defensive genius card if he can't take advantage of Tannehill.

San Francisco (-8) over Minnesota - As you can see from my power rankings, I'm in on the 49ers.

New Orleans (-9) over Kansas City - A stoppable force meets a moveable object! I think coach Brees can find a way against Coach Romeo. Just saying.

Cincinnati (+3) over Washington - Just a hunch here, but this game is the perfect line and could go either way.

Sunday Late Games

Philadelpia (+4) over Arizona- This  HAS to be where the wheels come off for Arizona, right? RIGHT?

Atlanta (+3) over San Diego - Norv Turner can't start 3-0... right?

Houston (-3) over Denver - Until Peyton Manning proves he can throw the ball 50+ yards in the air I've got questions. Houston should be able to cover the spread on the road here. This should be the game of the day, however.

Pittsburgh(+5) over Oakland - Based on my power rankings I shouldn't think about this. So I won't.

Sunday Night Game

New England (+3) over Baltimore - If New England hadn't inexplicably crapped the bed last week this is Patriots -3. I'll take the points, but this game should tell us a great deal about both teams.

Monday Night Game

Green Bay (-4) over Seattle - I can't root for Green Bay (unlike my brother), and I'm always hoping for the epic "Rodgers throws for six TDs, 700 yards, and the Packers STILL Lose"... but I need to see something from Mr. Rodgers right about now for my fantasy season. I think he does it here.

2012 NFL Picks Week 2

This week I will miss every football game due to work (Thursday and Sunday) and Class (Monday). I am officially tired of doing 80+ hours of work, school and practicum every week. I made it to the half way point of my 3rd of 32 weeks before announcing it on a blog. I think that's a victory.

Anyway, a reminder that I pull the lines right from ESPN.com on the scoreboard page. Before I dive into the week 2 picks, last week I went:
- 7 and 9 against the spread
- 8 and 8 straight up.

Not the best start, but something manageable to build on for the rest of the year.

On to this week's picks:

-  Chicago (+6) over Green Bay (Chicago straight up) - Cutler to Green Bay secondary: "enjoy Brandon Marshall: try playing physical with him." I'm generally not in favor of too much trash talking when the opponent has owned your jock (literally, I think the Packers have owned Jay's jock since he came over from Denver). I'm going to take this as not so quiet confidence rather than being overzealous. Either way, I'll be at work all night so I'll have to get updates via the cell phone. HUGE bummer. Thursday night NFL games are stupid.

Sunday early games

- Bills (-3) over Chiefs - I'm already regretting my preseason predictions for both of these teams. A special thanks Chan Gailey and Romeo Crennel for only taking one week to remind me why they are bad coaches. Are the Jets and the Falcons that good, or were these teams that bad? Either way, I'll drink the CJ Spiller Kool-Aid for one week at least... while I start him on my fantasy team.

- Cincinnati (-7) over Cleveland - One week after Baltimore showed the Bengals how they play football in the big boys league they get Brandon Weeden (he of the 5.1 QB rating). It's like comfort food, right? The logic here is simple: Cincinnati can't be as bad as they looked last week, but Cleveland easily can.

- Indianapolis (+2) over Minnesota - I think Andrew Luck will be motivated after all the RG3 talk he's hearing this week. Minnesota has a good pass rush, and Peterson looked fine last week, but Luck has the ability and will put it all together a number of weeks this year. I believe this may be one of them.

- Oakland (-3) over Miami - Yes, I think Ryan Tannehill his that bad. Look up Kyle Boller for my favorite comparison. Still, with the whole "west coast team coming east" thing it would make me feel a whole lot better if this line were under the field goal line.

-  New England (-14) over Arizona - Check please!

- Tampa (+9) over NY Giants (Giants straight up) - I didn't do so hot with my hedges last week, but I'll try to hedge the Giants again and see if I have any more luck. I liked what I read about the Bucs defense last week, and I didn't like what I saw out of the Giants against Dallas.

- Ravens (+3) over Philadelphia - Did nearly losing to the Weeden disaster wake Philly up? No matter what, that Ravens offense looked even better than advertised on Monday night. Give me the points.

- Carolina (+3) over New Orleans - I tried to hedge last week with the Saints, but I fear that this may be one of those years where everything that can go wrong will go wrong for my friends in New Orleans.

- Houston (-8) over Jacksonville - is Houston ready to make the jump? If they are, this should be an easy line for them to cover.

Sunday Late Games

- Rams (+3) over Washington - I think Jeff Fisher will have a game plan to stop RGIII and the Baylor offense that Washington ran effectively against New Orleans last week.

- Dallas (-3) over Seattle - I don't know why this line isn't higher. I know that given the home field advantage this really makes Dallas a six point favorite, but doesn't it feel like it should be higher after what we saw last week for both of these teams? 

- Jets (+6) over Pittsburgh - it was only one week, but until the Jets show they aren't that good, or the Steelers prove they aren't too old, I've got to take the points for the road dog here.

- Tennessee (+6) over San Diego (Charger straight up) - a second hedge, but one I don't feel much of anything about. How's that for saying "I wouldn't bet on this game if you gave me your money to do it"?

Sunday Night Football

- San Francisco (-7) over Detroit - The Lions barely escaped last week against the Rams. Meanwhile, the 49ers thumped Green Bay convincingly. Furthermore, Harbaugh is the hot head to pick in the coaching matchup. Again, I wish I wasn't working all day Sunday so I could live blog the handshake here.

Monday Night Football

- Atlanta (-3) over Denver - I'll give Atlanta the benefit of the doubt here, but Michael Turner looked washed up last week, and Peyton looked like the Peyton of pre-neck surgery. This really is a toss up in my mind, which is why the line is where it is.

Enjoy football everyone! Please, do it for me :-)

2012 NFL Week One Picks

Here are the week one picks:

1. Dallas (+4) over New York (New York straight up)
2. Chicago (-9) over Indianapolis
3. Philadelphia (-9) over Cleveland
4. St. Louis (+9) over Detroit (St. Louis to win)
5. New England (-6) over Tennessee
6. Atlanta (-3) over Kansas City
7. Minnesota (-4) over Jacksonville
8. Washington (+9) over New Orleans (New Orleans straight up)
9. Buffalo (+3) over NY Jets (Buffalo to win)
10. Miami (+11) over Houston (Houston straight up)
11. Green Bay (-5.5) over San Francisco
12. Seattle (-3) over Arizona
13. Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
14. Pittsburgh (+1) over Denver (Pittsburgh to win)
15. Cincinnati (+6) over Baltimore (Baltimore straight up)
16. San Diego (-1) over Oakland

The P.O.V. NFL 2012 Preview

And here we are, once again, ready for some football. Even watching Alabama tear Michigan apart couldn't change one fact, one reality: the NFL is king. And, at the present time, no sport (professional or "amateur") can even lay siege to the crown. Concussion worries, official lockout, player safety concerns at an all time high... none of it matters. Fantasy football, 60 inch home TVs with HD, gambling... it all points to the NFL as king.

Before we dive in, in case you are curious about previous years, here are links to my 2011, 2010, and 2009 (In the 2009 article you'll find a recap of the 2008, 2007 and 2006 preseason super bowl predictions from my previous blog as well).

Last year I picked the Pats correctly to win the AFC, and in 2010 I picked the Steelers correctly to win the AFC. In 2009 I failed to pick anyone correctly for the Super Bowl (blame that one on the Jay Cutler honeymoon phase of my life), but in 2008 I picked the Steelers correctly to win it all. In 2007 I picked the Pats correctly to win the AFC, and then, in 2006, I had picked the Colts to beat the Bears in the super bowl (still wish I could take that one back). Long story short, I've managed to correctly pick at least one Super Bowl contender in five of six years. Looking closer, however, and I can safely place much of the responsibility for that great record on the fact that I've ridden the Pats and Steelers hard each year. This year? Well, you'll just have to see if I'm still riding those teams, or if I'm going to go outside of the box for the AFC (the NFC, mind you, I'm only 1 for 6 on in the last six years, and zero for my last five).

As a final disclaimer, I don't take the time to research who plays who to determine exact records. The records below, in fact, couldn't actually happen (probably anyway) as they probably don't add up. On to the picks:





AFC East

1. New England (12-4)
2. Buffalo (9-7)
3. NY Jets (7-9)
4. Miami (6-10)


The reasoning: New England has the NFL's most high octane passing game and just added a deep target for the first time since Randy Moss was breaking records in their 16-0* year. They also added a great deal of depth to the defense, which should help given that their team was one of the worst on defense last year. The big reason to pick New England here is that, in light of their defeat last year in the Super Bowl, you can expect Brady and company to be hyper focused on winning it all. Brady is still one ring short of being able to open the Brady V Montana book for greatest of all time, and after watching what happened to Manning I'm sure Tom realizes tomorrow is not guaranteed to anyone. The rest of the division depends heavily on what you believe about quarter back play and defense. I believe that Fitzpatrick is a much better QB than Sanchez/Tebow (Sanchbow? Tebez?) or Tannehill (usually not a good sign when your rookie QB couldn't complete passes with accuracy in college). In fact, the only reason that I'm not placing the Jets dead last in this division is because I really think Tannehill will be that bad. I also believe the Bills defense will be improved, while the Jets continues to back slide (Revis is the only thing holding them together). Long story short, this division is still the Patriots to lose, and I don't think they will.

AFC North

1. Baltimore (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh (9-7)
3. Cincinnati (7-9)
4. Cleveland (3-13)

The reasoning: first, after picking Cleveland to make the playoffs last year (I plea concussion on that one), I had to put them back down. I don't believe drafting modern era Chris Wienke was the right move, let alone starting him, and I just could see it being another long year in Cleveland (besides, when was the last time something went well for Cleveland sports fans). Beyond Cleveland, the division is a bit of a toss up for me. Baltimore's defense is aging and the loss of Terrell Suggs will hurt quite a bit. But Pittsburgh's defense is equally old and the Pittsburgh offense is minus their starting running back and their offensive line is in shambles (for, by my count, year ten in a row). I believe in Big Ben much more than Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh's receivers are, on paper, better than Baltimore's are. Still, something just tells me that the Steelers are in for a down year, and that Baltimore will do just enough to put it together to win the division. As for the Bengals, I don't believe in their coach, and I think that a regression back makes sense for this team. Moving forward, however, this division may be Cincinnati's to lose as the Ravens and Steelers continue to age.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans (11-5)
2. Tennessee Titans (10-6)
3. Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)

The reasoning: Houston always finds a way to play back towards the pack and I don't see that ending this year. I expect a big bounce back year for Chris Johnson in Tennessee, and Jake Locker has all the tools to become a quality starting QB in the NFL. I think that Luck will have a more successful rookie year than Peyton did, but much of that is due to the change in NFL rules since 1998. As for the Jags, I'm not sure I like much of anything coming out of Jacksonville this year. I would say there is an outside chance that the Colts could make a run at this division, but I still can't buy into the Rookie QB leading a ten game turn around angle. So, for now, this is the best stab at it.

AFC West

1. Kansas City (11-5)
2. San Diego (8-8)
3. Denver (8-8)
4. Oakland (6-10)

The reasoning: This division is an entire toss up and I could easily see any of these four teams ending the year in first. The Chiefs promise to have a tough running game and solid defense, leaving their biggest question mark at QB with Matt Cassel. The Chargers have the most talent of any team in the division, but they also have a history of underachieving greatly and they have Norv Turner inexplicably still entrenched as their head coach. Denver has the biggest question mark of all in Peyton Manning's health. Oakland seems to be mired in an era of "whatever can go wrong will go wrong." In other words, I could see this division end in the exact opposite way I've predicted here and I wouldn't be surprised. But, for now, I see Kansas City and their easier schedule moving up to first.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia (12-4)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (7-9)
4. Washington (6-10)

The reasoning: The year after the "Dream Team" fell apart in Philly I see some rebound with a defense that looked great at the end of last year and an offense that is capable of scoring in bunches. The Giants always tend to trend backwards after a great year, and I see that staying consistent this year. All the injuries in Dallas already bode for a long year for the team and Washington should make some strides with a QB under center more talented than Grossman, but I still see them bringing up the rear in this division.

NFC North

1. Chicago (13-3)
2. Green Bay (10-6)
3. Detroit (9-7)
4. Minnesota (5-11)

The reasoning: the biggest concern that I have about picking my Bears to finish first is Urlacher's bulky knee. I have a hard time believing that he will be able to play at anything close to 100% this year, and, as we've seen in the past, Urlacher tends to be the key to a successful defense in Chicago. The Bears have the talent to overcome, but only if Lovie is actually willing to run a defense outside of his Tampa 2 (history indicates he probably won't). That said, the Bears should have by far the most dynamic offense in my life time, if not team history. And, if recent NFL history has shown us anything its that you can skimp on defense if your offense can move the ball. As for Green Bay, I see some regression for them, particularly with no running game or defense to speak of. I see the same for Detroit, and (spoiler) I see this as a lull that leads to their coach getting fired when it carries into next year. Minnesota, playing with three playoff caliber teams in their division, will be lucky to get to five or six wins.

NFC South

1. Atlanta (12-4)
2. New Orleans (10-6)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (6-10)

The reasoning: With New Orleans hamstrung by suspensions I see the door opening for the Falcons to make the jump, so to speak, into the upper half of the NFC title contenders. I still see New Orleans, led by Drew Brees, making a push for a good record. I think that Cam Newton will struggle more than people expect in year two (given his final eight games last year) and I think that there is plenty of work to do in Tampa before the Bucs are ready to compete for the division.

NFC West

1. San Francisco (10-6)
2. St. Louis (9-7)
3. Seattle (7-9)
4. Arizona (4-12)

The reasoning: I'm still not sold on this division as being anything other than a cakewalk for out of division foes, but I suppose that San Francisco's defensive advantage and coaching advantage gives them the edge here. I think St. Louis will see a big bounce back from Sam Bradford, and Jeff Fisher tends to be able to take even poor teams into the average category. From there on out Seattle is starting a rookie third round pick, and Arizona is in shambles.

AFC Playoffs (in order of seed)

1. New England
2. Houston
3. Baltimore
4. Kansas City
5. Tennessee
6. Buffalo

NFC Playoffs (in order seed)

1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. San Francisco
5. Green Bay
6. New Orleans

First Round:

1. Baltimore over Buffalo
2. Tennessee over Kansas City
3. Atlanta over New Orleans
4. Green Bay over San Francisco

Second Round:

1. New England over Tennessee
2. Baltimore over Houston
3. Chicago over Green Bay
4. Atlanta over Philadelphia

Championship Games:

1. New England over Baltimore
2. Chicago over Atlanta

Super Bowl:

New England over Chicago    

And there you have it: the 2012 NFL Preview. I went back to the well with the Patriots as my pick, as well as with Chicago as my pick for the third time in seven years. If it ends up being Pats and Bears right now you have to go with the Pats given their experience and their huge coaching advantage. But, if history is any indicator, there will be far more turnover among playoff teams than shown here. No matter what, it should be a fun time.