NFL Week Picks - Week 12 - Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up: 12-2

Season against the spread: 93-63-4
Season straight up: 112-47-1

Things I'm Thankful For: My fiance, my family, and her family who have welcomed me with such open arms. My job, which challenges me, pushes me to the limit daily, but never ceases to fulfill me. The grace of God, which allows a sinner such as myself to feel the love of God. And those things, not in that order. In the sports world, I'm thankful for:
- a return to relevance from the IU Basketball Team (Go Hoosiers!)
- The 7-1 start by the Bears, at least allowing me to enjoy part of a football season with optimism
- Management at Wrigley who seem competent and driven to build a winner the right way
- A Bulls team that won't win it all, but gives its all every night.
- Having had the chance to watch MJ, the undisputed Greatest Of All Time across all sports.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with these picks. This may be the week. But somehow, some way I'm plugging along with an insanely great picks year. I suppose that is a small consolation prize for my awful fantasy football season.

On to the picks:

Thursday (Turkey Day) Games - The one Thursday of the year when NFL on Thursday DOES NOT suck:

Houston (-4) over Detroit - This year has been a major regression to the mean for the Lions. When they get a sane coach they have the talent to be tough.

Dallas (-3) over Washington - I'm with Bill Simmons: this is the game that Dallas wins, making their fans believe, before blowing it a few weeks down the road.

New England (-7) over NY Jets - I'm surprised there isn't more of a rumbling for Rex Ryan's job after this underwhelming year. Missing Gronk hurts, but I think that New England can cover here. I'd prefer the line be -6 or -5.5 however.

Sunday Early Games:

Bears (PK) over Minnesota - My how the might have fallen. The Bears are suddenly EVEN against the Vikes at home? That's what happens when you go out and get punched in the face and don't fight back, which is what happened on Monday night. It's been a long time since I turned a Bears game off as quickly as I did Monday. In fact, it may have never happened in my life. Monday there was a team that wanted to impose its' will on their opponent, and the Bears rolled over and died. If they lose this game the rest of the year becomes a defacto "Lovie's Last Stand."

Raiders (+10) over Cincinnati - I'll take Cincinnati straight up, but ten points is a lot to lay for a Raiders team that can score, even if it cannot win.

Pittsburgh (-1) over Cleveland - They only lost to Baltimore by three, and now they are barely a favorite against Cleveland? Gotta believe they still have enough D to win the game...

Indianapolis (-3) over Buffalo - Big game for the Bills: if they win they have a chance to sneak back into the playoff discussion. But Indy has been tough at home (4-1) and it feels like an "Andrew Luck leads the Colts to the playoffs" headline is more likely.

Denver (-11) over Kansas City - All my Manning hatred aside, right now he has to be the MVP. It is incredible what he's done coming back from the injury, surgeries, and a full year off. And playing outdoors for the first time. Also, it's easier not to hate him when he's not in Indy. Beside, him leaving cut the number of "Colts fans" by 50%. Thanks Peyton: I'm thankful for you taking your talents to the Rocky Mountains.

Seattle (-3) over Miami - I think Miami's goose may be cooked. Seattle is bad on the road, but Miami has looked a bit lost these last few weeks.

Atlanta (-2) over Tampa Bay - And now the betting has over adjusted, giving a 9-1 Falcons team not enough credit after a few weeks of giving them too much credit. I could see Tampa winning this game, but that line is too tasty.

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville - I find myself again taking way too many favorites for my liking, but not really seeing the favorites as giving too much. I'm glad Chris Johnson could resurrect his season in time for my to trade him and get draft picks for next year. Yes, my friends, I've become Jerry Reinsdorf and waived the white flag.

Sunday Late Games:

Baltimore (-1) over San Diego - That doesn't feel right somehow...

EDIT: San Diego (+1) over Baltimore - I'll role with Norv, who has to be thankful that his owner and GM died a few years ago, and that he's been able to get away with propping them up Weekend at Bernie's style. After all, isn't that a more plausible explanation that believing that Chargers management actually thought it was a good idea to keep Norv as the head coach?

New Orleans (+1) over San Francisco - Yes, I'm sticking with this one. I think the 49ers played out of their mind last week, I KNOW that Harbaugh (great coach, sure) is creating a QB controversy by letting Kapernick get the first team reps, and I suspect that a win here puts the Saints back in the playoff discussion. Who Dat?

St. Louis (+1) over Arizona - Add Ken Wisenhunt to the list of probable fires after the year. Of course, Jeff Fisher's decision to go for two last week when it made no sense doesn't exactly give me faith in him. St. Louis seems to be more stable on offense right now, and they just played San Fran to a tie. Interesting that all three late games are one point spreads... you baited me into three straight dogs Vegas. Well done.

Sunday Night Game:

NY Giants (-3) over Green Bay - for the Bear's sake I hope this is right. The Giants have been abysmal lately, but this feels like a game they'd turn it on and win.

Monday Night Game:

Carolina (-1) over Philadelphia - I just think that the Eagles have completely quit on Andy Reid. And I will not be watching this game.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!