MLB 2010 - A Fools Breakdown

Let's be honest: The real world doesn't give me as much time as I used to have. If I ran into a 13 year old version of myself I would tear my predictions apart. Back then I devoured Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News, pouring through stats to determine who was doing what in baseball. Now? I'm just happy that I know that the season started tonight, that the Cubs open tomorrow, and that I know why Tyler Colvin is. With that in mind, take these predictions for what they are: a common man's attempt at breaking it down.

AL East - 1. NY Yankees, 2. Tampa Bay Rays, 3. Boston Red Sox, 4. Baltimore Orioles, 5. Toronto Blue Jays

Why this will happen: New York made some smart moves this offseason (Hello Curtis Granderson) and some moves that boggle the mind (didn't we already try the Javier Vazquez in New York experiment once?), but what we know for sure is that if they stay healthy they are by far the most talented team in the AL. The Rays have so much young talent that it isn't funny, and I think that the Red Sox will wish they had a big bat who is clutch. Baltimore is a year or more away, and Toronto will struggle quite a bit.

One prediction to take to the bank: Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs last year while playing half his games in cavernous Comerica park in Detroit. Yankees stadium, where he will play half his games this year, turned Johnny Damon into a power hitter last year due to the short porch in left. ESPN is projecting Granderson to hit 25 home runs this year. Let's just say that I would take the over here. Way over. Like 35 or more.

AL Central - 1. Minnesota Twins, 2. Chicago White Sox, 3. Cleveland Indians, 4. Detroit Tigers, 5. Kansas City Royals

Why this will happen: Minnesota has the most talent, and they will trade for San Diego closer Heath Bell if their in house options don't fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. The White Sox have a closer who is about to melt down, and lack the punch in the middle of the lineup unless Quinten or Rios bounce back. While their rotation looks good I'm not entirely sold on Jake Peavy in the AL. The Indians have some young talent, but they aren't in the same class as the first two teams. I almost forgot about Detroit, which probably is not a good thing, and the Royals have one ace and one young first baseman ... and then who? If Grienke and Billy Butler are the first and last things people can identify on your team, and if you were thinking about starting Kyle Farnsworth, you may be in trouble.

One prediction to take to the bank: Zach Grienke will see his production fall off after his Cy Young campaign last year. Why? He's on my fantasy baseball team. Also, Fausto Carmona, of Cleveland Indians fame, will have a big bounce back year (15+ wins, sub 4.00 ERA).

AL West - 1. Seattle Mariners, 2. LA Angels, 3. Texas Rangers, 4. Oakland A's

Why this will happen: this division will be close, but the Mariners have the pitching and defense to take advantage of the Angels steps back. I like the team's build, and I think that LA may have lost too many pieces to keep their run of success alive. The Mariners success will be directly tied to how many stints on the DL Cliff Lee and Erick Bedard make. If the two lefties stay healthy(ish), along with King Felix, they will win some games. Texas is another competitor for the division; Oakland is at least a year away.

One prediction to take to the bank: Milton Bradley, with Ken Griffey Jr. to mentor him, will hit .300 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, and be considered to be a revelation. I will continue saying that the Cubs screwed up by not following the Dennis Rodman corollary: only pick up the head case if you have a strong on field leader and a strong coach.

NL East - 1. Philadelphia Phillies, 2. Florida Marlins, 3. Atlanta Braves, 4. New York Mets, 5. Washington Nationals

Why this will happen: Philadelphia is the most talented team in the NL, and perhaps in baseball. Roy Halliday might win 25 games this year if Brad Lidge doesn't blow every save. Florida has a ton of young talent as well (noticing a pattern) and Atlanta will also be in contention for the wild card, but I think Florida might have the horses to make the jump this year. New York is a poorly constructed team playing in a field that kills right handed hitters (bye, bye to that Jason Bay guy). Washington will finally be interesting when they call Strasburg up.

One prediction to take to the bank: Roy Halliday will win the NL CY Young award ... and Phillies fans will spend time wondering why the team didn't keep Cliff Lee too.

NL Central - 1. Chicago Cubs, 2. St. Louis Cardinals, 3. Cincinnati Reds, 4. Milwaukee Brewers, 5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6. Houston Astros

Why this will happen: The Cubs still don't have a leader, but they suddenly have some young position players poised to make the jump: Tyler Colvin, Sterling Castro, even Josh Vitters. The Cards are due some bad luck, and Pujols is slowly but surely breaking down. Also, Chris Carpenter is due for another Tommy John surgery. The Reds and the Brewers are two candidates for a dark horse run at the division title, but I think the Cubs can leg it out. I think the Astros will be really bad, and that Pittsburgh's young talent will surprise by avoiding a last place finish.

One prediction to take to the bank: the over under for number of times I bemoan the Alphonso Soriano contract this year is 50.5. I will go WAY over if Tyler Colvin looks as good this season as he did this spring ... yet has to sit behind Soriano because of how much he's being paid.

NL West - 1. Colorado Rockies, 2. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3. LA Dodgers, 4. SF Giants, 5. San Diego Pirates

Why this will happen: because the Dodgers have gone cheap and the Rockies and D' backs have talent. The Giants have some pitching, but little hitting. San Diego's top moment of the year will be seeing what kind of talent they can get for Heath Bell, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.

One prediction to take to the bank: If Brandon Webb makes 25 starts or more the Diamondbacks will be the number one contender for the division; if he doesn't they will finish third or worse.

AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Rays (Wild Card)
NL Playoff Teams: Phillies, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins (Wild Card)

ALCS - Yankees over Twins
NLCS - Phillies over Cubs
World Series: Phillies over Yankees

Deadwood ... How Many F-Bombs Can You Handle?

The HBO series "Deadwood" brings an awful lot to the table. I'm not going to lie to you: the money I spent on all three seasons was well worth it, and I deeply enjoyed nearly every minute. That said, there are some major cons to this show, so we'll break the series down "pro-con" style:

The Pros:

-Exceptional acting carries this show throughout.

• Timothy Olyphant does a solid job as the lead "good guy" of the series, playing Seth Bullock. Coming from Montana, the Bullock character gives us the traditional "I was once a law-man, but now I'd like to just make my money thank you" character that makes many of these westerns move. Of course it goes without saying that Bullock's vow of abstinence regarding the law worked about as well as Wyatt Earp's did for him in Tombstone. In Bullock the viewer finds a character with which to identify, for he is a man who is simply trying to make it in life. He often finds himself tied up in things which he wishes to avoid, and by the end of the run he is fully immersed in the politics of this most unpolitical of towns.
• As good as Olyphant is, Ian McShane steals the show with his presentation of saloon owner Al Swearengen. This is probably the best character actings I've seen in a television show, and McShane owns the role. Swearengen is, predictably, the bad guy as the curtain raises on the shows first season. He is vulgar, he is vindictive, and he is a murderer without remorse. In short, he is the man you love to hate. Still, McShane sells the character so well that before very long you find yourself quietly rooting for Swearengen to succeed. Halfway through the series there is a story arch which involves Swearengen trying (in vain for some time) to pass a kidney stone. The man is incapacitated, and the show suffers for his absence: you end up rooting for him to survive and recover as soon as possible. Quite simply, this show could not have, would not have succeeded without McShane's Swearengen.
  
• And beyond these two lead actors there is a strong stable of excellent performances. Robin Weigert is introduced early as Calamity Jane, and she sells the part so well that you might be shocked to find out that she is actually a very attractive woman (I know I was). Dayton Callie does an exceptional job with the role of Charlie Utter as well, starting off as a likable sidekick to Keith Carradine's excellent portrayal of Wild Bill Hickock, then developing into a character who made the scenes he was in better just by his presence. Other characters, including E.B. Farnum (William Sanderson), Cy Tolliver (Powers Boothe), Trixie (Paula Malcomson) and Ulma Garret (Molly Parker) add depth to the show, and even "bit players" such as Dan Dority (W. Earl Brown) and Johnny Burns (Sean Bridgers) play the parts exceptionally well.
  

- The story arch keeps you guessing at all times, and they are not afraid to utilize a surprise death or attempted murder to remind you that you are in the "wild west" and that you should never expect the day to go as planned.

- The episodes run smoothly, with excellent dialogue and imagery, and they seem to be much shorter than their 50 minute (give or take) run time.

The Cons

- The vulgarity of this show will almost certainly force some people into not even giving it a try. The show's writers wanted to use modern vulgarity with the same frequency that 1870s vulgarity was used in Deadwood because they wanted the viewer to understand what a frontier town was really like. That ended up with the show averaging a reported 1.56 F-bombs per minute over its entire run, including 43 in the first hour of the show alone. As with many things in life, mother may have been right: if you speak in vulgar ways people may not give you the light of day to see how smart you really may be. With this show, the reality is that you have to fight through the first bit of vulgarity to see that the story is compelling, and that the vulgarity can be tuned into the larger picture.

- The abrupt end of this show is probably the biggest con for me. Three seasons, then canceled. No resolution of any real value to the end of the series. On the one hand, you can imagine what arch the characters would have continued to follow. On the other hand, like Teddy KGB, I am so unsatisfied.

In the end, however, this show is well worth the view. The acting alone makes it a masterpiece of sorts, particularly McShane's work. The vulgarity and abrupt end are only minor blips on the radar:

From My Point of View: 8 out of 10

Too Good To Pass Up

Seriously, just click here and tell me that the fact that things like this keep coming up isn't a really bad sign for the GOP. Karma isn't kind fellas...