Week 9 NFL Picks

Last week I just threw the picks out there in a matter of moments. The weeks prior I gave the picks serious thought and had a terrible record. Did the shotgun approach to the picks last week help?

Last week against the spread: 7-6
Last week straight up: 10-3

Well, at least it stopped the bleeding. This week I'll give it more time, but I need to learn some lessons from last week: gut instincts work well.

Thursday Night Game:

Cincinnati (-3) over Miami - Thursday night football sucks, and may be the work of El Diablo. Also, Miami has now lost four straight games, and Cincinnati just destroyed the Jets. All things equal this should be a pretty easy game to pick. But, again, Thursday night football = awful idea, possibly of diabolic intent.

Sunday Early Game:

Kansas City (-3) over Buffalo - Cleveland's tough game with Jason Campbell at the helm tells me all I need to know about KC's long term prospects. But they should manage to win this game.

Dallas (-12) over Minnesota - I'm sending this one out to Leslie Frazier's inner dialogue: "Put me out of my misery. I'd do it for you, would you do it for me?" So my two thoughts on this game are: Dallas needs this win after their collapse last week, and I imagine Leslie Frazier likes Soul Asylum.

St. Louis (+3) over Tennessee - I feel like Tennessee may be an insy bit better, but I don't really know what to make of St. Louis. Bradford gets knocked out for the season and then they play Seattle super tough. I guess I'll grab the points and hope for the best.

New Orleans (-7) over NY Jets - Doesn't it feel like New Orleans should be able to win by more than a TD after watching the Jets not even show up against the Bengals last week?

San Diego (-1) over Washington - I'm sending this one out to Mike Shanahan's inner dialogue: "It seems no one can help me now, I'm in too deep, there's no way out. This time I have really led myself astray." So my two thoughts for this game are: I can't believe the Bears blew that game against this awful Washington team, and I imagine Mike Shanahan has no idea who Soul Asylum is, but he's on a Runaway Train to the unemployment line (see what I did there?).

Atlanta (+9) over Carolina - Wait that doesn't look even remotely right. The Falcons were this close to the Super Bowl last year, and now they can get nine points against Carolina. I need to delve deeper. The Falcons have lost five games; only last week against the Cardinals did they lose by more than nine points. The Panthers have won four games; in all four wins they have won by more than nine points... but they also got drubbed by the same Cardinals team that just drubbed the Falcons. I will go with Atlanta here under the premise that I need to listen to my gut... but if Carolina kills Atlanta I need to consider that Carolina might actually be sneaky good.

Sunday Late Games:

Oakland (-1) over Philadelphia - I don't ask for much, but can either Foles or Vick stay upright enough to not completely kill McCoy's value the same way Doug Martin and C.J. Spiller's value has gone in the tank this year?

Seattle (-17) over Tampa Bay - This is a large spread but Tampa Bay is a really bad team. I'm just hoping for garbage time yards (and a TD?) for Vincent Jackson.

Baltimore (-3) over Cleveland - Coming off the bye week the Ravens need to get things righted if they aren't going to have the embarrassing Super Bowl Champ to missing the playoff fall.

New England (-7) over Pittsburgh- and just like that ... I'm off the Steeler's bandwagon.

Sunday Night Game:

Indianapolis (-3) over Houston - My AFC champion pick of the Texans isn't looking so hot right now. My pick for the Colts to miss the playoffs at 8-8 isn't looking any better.

Monday Night Game:

Green Bay (-12) over Chicago - I want to take the Bears here, but our defense is so bad that I think that even if we score 40 they can score 53. To make this game interesting I'm going to start three Bears on my fantasy team this week. I hope the Bears beat the Pack, but I think at the end of this game I'll be crushed (since my Bears will lose) while I expect my brother to be ecstatic (since his Packers will win). Either way, go McCown, Forte and Marshall!

Season against the spread: 55-59-6
Season straight up: 74-46

Week 8 Picks

This week got away from me...

Panthers (-7) over Tampa
Detroit (-3) over Dallas
Kansas City (-9) over Cleveland
New England (-7) over Miami
New Orleans (-12) over Buffalo
NY Giants (+5) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-16) over Jacksonville
NY Jets (+7) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-1) over Oakland
Denver (-13) over Washington
Atlanta (+1) over Arizona
Green Bay (-10) over Minnesota
Seattle (-13) over St. Louis

Last week against the spread: 6-9
Last week straight up: 7-8
Season against the spread: 48-53-6 (gap ... widening...)
Season straight up: 64-43

Different … But Back to Good? The POV Breakdown of Matchbox Twenty’s North

As promised, here is the first non-football post in awhile. This one was written some time ago (based on the word document time stamp it would have been 03/17/2013 ... but who's counting), but I think it's still a decent review of a good album.

1996 was a great year. The economy was on the upswing. The polarization of politics, while clearly beginning to take on its current form, was nothing compared to today (oh for the days of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America,” rather than Rand Paul’s “Hypocrisy For America”). And, of course, the Chicago Bulls were back in action, having completed a 72-10 year which culminated with their fourth NBA championship. That year also saw the release of a new band’s first album, Yourself or Someone Like You. The band, then known as Matchbox 20, had something on their side that made them seem different from much of the pop/rock scene in the mid 1990s. A friend of mine at the time, Matt, was able to put his finger on it sometime later. That something they had was angst, and it permeated the entire album.

It really shouldn’t be a major surprise that Yourself became such a popular album, anymore than it should be a surprise that the album resonated with persons in their teens and twenties during the 1996 through 2000 period that it was at its height. The album was written, in large part, by Rob Thomas, the band’s front man. Thomas was 24 at the time of the album’s release, and, by most accounts, was fairly angst filled in a relative way. A high school drop out, he was raised by his mother after his father pretty much dropped out of his life following a divorce. Thomas’s relationships weren't anything to write home about, and he focused his energy and efforts on becoming a rock star. All of this makes Thomas an every man in most respects. What set him apart was his unique ability to write songs.

Yourself began with the song “Real World,” which became a hit single off the album. This song is something of a chorus to most 24 year old's who are simply struggling to get by, and it resonated on the Top 40 charts. “Long Day,” the first official single off the album, getting rock play, was more of the same. Throughout the other singles (“3 A.M.”, “Push”, and “Back 2 Good”) a common theme is unearthed. The songs paint a picture of an individual, or individuals, who are struggling to figure something out. Whether it’s the real world continuing to hassle them, the exasperation at the end of the day, or the confusion and struggle of finding a meaningful romantic relationship, the hits off of Yourself spoke to young persons coming of age. Digging deeper into the album, and the angst gets deeper, and the feelings illuminate. Perhaps the two best songs on the album, “Kody” and “Hang”, paint this picture brilliantly. And, in the end, Matt’s breakdown still stands: Thomas sounds angry through many of the songs, and listening to the lyrics you can understand why. After five singles, Yourself or Someone Like You not only became one of the surprise contenders for the best album of the 1990s, but it also established Matchbox 20 as a force to be reckoned with.

The slow roll out of the album (released in 1996, picking up momentum in 1997, and blooming fully in 1998) afforded the band years to work on their second album without it really feeling like it took years. Thomas also nailed a mega hit in his collaboration with Carlos Santana, as “Smooth” won Thomas three Grammy Awards. By 2000 there was a good deal of build up for the Sophomore effort by the band. Now known as Matchbox Twenty, Mad Season became that 2^nd album. The first song was a great indicator of the change that had occurred in Thomas’s life in the years between 1996 and 2000; entitled “Angry,” the lyrics state “it’s good that I’m not angry anymore.” If only that was the truth. Mad Season lacked the edge of the band’s first effort, and it showed.

Of course, Thomas continued to be the lead writer, and his life had changed considerably since 1996. Now married, and happily so, Thomas was 28 and much seemed much more comfortable in life. That comfort showed in the lyrics and mood of the album. The first single, “Bent,” had a bit of the attitude found on Yourself, but the rest of the album felt very different. Whereas the first album could be described as a unique blend of rock, pop and alternative, the second album felt much more straight pop. Thomas’s skills in writing a catchy song continued to be highlighted, but the album left something to be desired for many fans. The radio play for the album also paled in comparison to Yourself.

The group came together much quicker for their third effort, More Than You Think You Are. The album played with more edge than Mad Season, but seemed to lack in the lyrical department compared with both predecessors. The group then went their separate ways for awhile, and Thomas released Something to Be as a solo effort. More than anything, Something made clear that Rob Thomas was a pop writer of great skill. When the group reunited for a greatest hits compilation (which included a few new tracks) Exile on Mainstream they went on tour. It was then that I first went to see Matchbox Twenty live, in 2008.

I expected something rather lacking, as it seemed to me that every step along the way the band had lost a bit of what had made its’ first effort great. Instead, I was blown away by the energy that Thomas brought to the stage, and by how well the band played together. I thoroughly enjoyed the show, and was hopeful that the tour would bring energy to the band’s creative development, perhaps leading to a new album. More than that, I was hopeful that if there was another album, it would be worthy of being held up alongside Yourself. Instead, the band again took “time away” and Thomas released a second solo effort, Cradlesong. Honestly, I’m not even sure if I knew that he released that album before I started researching the group for the post. At the least, I can say that I, for the first time, didn’t go out and buy a new Matchbox Twenty/Rob Thomas album. And the group subsequently faded from my field of vision.

As I said when I reviewed the most recent Dave Matthews Band Album, Away From The World, I am a big believer that angst drives powerful music. My favorite Billy Joel songs seem to have been written at a time in his life when he was pretty unhappy. One album, written when he was … ahem … “seeing” Christie Brinkley, seemed to be written when Joel was particularly happy. That album, An Innocent Man happens to be one of Joel’s best selling albums. It also happens to suck. (Side note: how in the hell did Billy Joel end up … “seeing” … both Elle Macpherson and Christie Brinkley?) One day, while surfing the web I noticed that Matchbox Twenty had a new album, North, coming out in 2012. After getting it, I put it in …

… and was pleasantly surprised. The album features twelve songs, with a wide variety of feel. The first song, “Parade,” starts the album with good energy. More than anything, the bridge of the song has a 1990s Top 40 feel, giving the song a feel of a song that could have held its’ own on Yourself or Someone Like You, sort of a combination of “Real World” and “Long Day”. The next song, “She’s So Mean,” was the first single off the album, and felt a bit like a popped up version of “Girl Like That.” But the real strength of this album was how the band seemed to integrate parts of prior albums that worked with new takes on pop music. “Overjoyed,” the third song on the album and the second single released, took the slow pop approach that the group first displayed on Mad Season and shined it up a bit. Then, after three songs that can easily be compared to prior work, the band placed the song “Put Your Hands Up,” which is a bit more unique. One can almost imagine the group listening to the radio, hearing the most recent dance club pop song, and saying “I bet we can do that.” This song is a great illustration of Thomas’s ability to write pop music for whatever the occasion requires.

Track five, “Our Song,” brings my mind to some songs the Goo Goo Dolls have written in recent years, only it’s far better than anything the Goo Goo Dolls have done. It has a manic feel, pushing through the chorus time and again. The group then presents the song “I Will,” which slows the pace down and simply showcases Thomas’s voice. With simple piano and guitar plucking guiding him along, the song also serves as a bit of an intermission to the album. The next track, “English Town,” fits as the group’s attempt at a big, dark beast of a song. The transitions between the soft verse with haunting piano and the powerful choruses are like night and day. The song also feels a bit like a unique cross between a song like “Kody” and “Rest Stop.”

After the darker presentation of “English Town” the album then moves on to a simple, short, poppy song in “How Long.” The ninth track, “Radio,” plays well and takes the listener back to the time when listening to the radio was the way to find out about new music, rather than downloading the songs on iTunes or shuffling through Pandora. “The Way,” the first track without Thomas on the vocals, has the feel of an 80s song, and does the job of feeling out of place, yet somehow right. At this point, ten songs in, and without a weak link, the band only needs a solid finisher to round off the album.

The eleventh track, “Like Sugar” feels like a song off of their third album, which naturally makes it one of the weaker songs on the album. But the listener will quickly forget about this when the end track, “Sleeping at the Wheel” comes on. This song has a unique feel, almost a merging of “Leave” and “Hang.” In reality, the song provides an emphatic answer to the angst of Yourself or Someone Like You. It is the mature Matchbox Twenty (and, really, Thomas) answering the confusion and anger of youth with the resolute answer of adulthood:

And now these hands are tied
I can't help thinking
That I was in a daze, I was losing my place
I was screaming out at everything

In February 2013, the day before Valentine’s day, I went to see Matchbox Twenty a second time. My fiancé (UPDATE: she's now my wife!) got us tickets for Christmas, and so we went to a much smaller venue than the first time I saw them and settled in. As we waited for the group to take the stage, I overheard that the next day was Rob Thomas’s birthday. His 41^st birthday. And I realized that, for me, he had been pretty much stuck in my mind. In 1996. When the first album was written he was 24, angst filled, and unsure about where he was headed. Now, at 40, he writes this most recent album, and life is different. And what is he, and what is the band? Thomas is one of the best pop writers alive today, and Matchbox Twenty is one vehicle which he uses to get that music out. During the show, after playing “Real World” Thomas announced “we’re going to stay in 1996 for the next few songs” and the crowd, predictably, went nuts. We all wanted to stay in 1996 as well. But the band wasn’t going to play Yourself or Someone Like You front to back, and a unique thing happened: the biggest crowd responses were for the songs off the first album, but the songs off of North seemed to register next in terms of popularity (with the possible exception of “Bent” and, perhaps, “Bed of Lies”). And, so, having taken it all it, I can give the following assessment of the album:

North is not Yourself or Someone Like You. It is different, and it illustrates Thomas’s ability to write a variety of pop songs and styles. But it is comfortable to a Matchbox Twenty fan, and it plays well front to back. And, in a way, it might be seen as an excellent merging of a more mature Matchbox Twenty with their angst filled past. Thomas (and company) may not be angry anymore, but they may have also reached their musical apex. And they still put on one hell of a show.

Album Breakdown:

                                  Parade – 5/5

                   She’s So Mean – 4/5

                   Overjoyed – 3/5

                   Our Song – 3.5/5

                    I Will – 4.5/5

                   English Town – 4.5/5

                 How Long – 3.5/5

                  Radio – 3.5/5

1               The Way – 3/5

1                Like Sugar – 3/5

                Sleeping At The Wheel – 5/5

Total: 3.8/5 album rating

NFL Week 7 Picks - Quick Hits Edition

I'm back with the quick hits, but just to give an idea of the posts I have in my head, I do plan on doing some music reviews, some book reviews, and perhaps even a break down of how the Republicans decided to take a stand that was guaranteed to lose them ground in the polls ... then backed down before getting anything for the stand when they started to lose ground in the polls. If politics were poker, Obama just called the House Republican's bluff, and the got caught with nothing.

Anyway, on to the picks (as always, screw you Thursday Night Football ... you suck):

Thursday Night Game

Seattle (-5) over Arizona - Seattle should cover this, but Arizona's defense is sneaky good. Imagine if they had a QB with a pulse...

Sunday Early Games

Chicago (-1) over Washington - I'm as down on the Bears as can be: we can't rush the passer, we don't run consistently, Rex Cutler ... er, Jay Cutler ... is a turnover waiting to happen. But Washington's been really really bad this year. Much like last week, we better win this game if we have a prayer of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (+9) over Atlanta - is whoever set this line aware of what's been happening in Atlanta the last few weeks? Does Atlanta even have a wide receiver on their active roster?

Cincinnati (+3) over Detroit - hey look, two undisciplined teams. If there was a line to bet on Suh getting fined by the end of this game, I would be on the yes.

Miami (-9) over Buffalo - This line seems high even with the Buffalo QB situation. But I'm hoping it will coax a shocking turnaround game out of CJ Spiller if I pick against the Bills.

New England (-4) over NY Jets - That last Brady drive last week was a thing of beauty to behold if you are even a small NFL fan. My wife (who enjoys football) was blown away. An all time great doing all time great things.

Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas - A chance for my pick of Philly to win the division to take a major step in the right direction.

St. Louis (+7) over Carolina - It seems like the Carolina Cam's have figured a thing or two out, but Minnesota is really bad. It seems like the St. Louis Bradford's have done the same, but Houston's self-combustion last week may have had more to do with that. I have a hard time believing either of these teams should be favored by a full TD against anyone but the Giants and the Jags. Okay, maybe the ViQueens as well.

San Diego (-9) over Jacksonville - covering the spread against Denver last week brings this line down to less than ten point? I don't gamble,but I like this line enough that if I did I would jump on it. Also, when you have to think "I could really use a big game from Chad Henne here" and got really excited to pick up Case Keenum when it was announced he was starting this week for the Texans... yeah, your fantasy season might be over.

Sunday Late Games

San Francisco (-4) over Tennessee - San Fran has a chance to quietly become an under the radar team. People seem to have forgotten about them, but they are 4-2...

Cleveland (+12) over Green Bay - Green Bay is without two of their three wide receivers, going against a tough defense and a team that has proven to be a tough out. And they are laying 12? I believe that Brandon Weeden will blow this game late, so I'll take Green Bay straight up, but that's a big line for the Pack to cover.

Kansas City (-7) over Houston - I might have picked up Keenum, but I am not starting him against this KC defense.

Pittsburgh (-1) over Baltimore - After this game there will quietly be rumbles that maybe the Steelers are back. People would be better to focus on how over paid Flacco is, and how crazy of a run that was for the Ravens last year.

Sunday Night Game

Denver (-7) over Indianapolis - I encourage you to read all of Jim Irsay's comments on Peyton Manning. That man is a moron. I should write a post sometime about my gradual appreciation of Peyton Manning, but one thing that's always been true is the MJ adage "don't tug on super man's cape." Irsay is an idiot. I'm really glad he's not running my team. He needs to have someone censor him.

Monday Night Game

Minnesota (+4) over the NY Giants - This game is awful.

Last week against the spread: 3-9-3 (that's probably the worst I've ever done. No comment)
Last week straight up: 10-5 (So it was just a bad week against the spread. Well done Vegas)
Season against the spread: 42-44-6 (Woof.)
Season straight up: 57-35 (that feels better)

NFL Week Six Picks - When Thursday Night Football Goes From Sucking To Being Un'Bear'able

Here we are again, only it's that much worse. Thursday night is my late night, so I never get to watch the spectacle that is the Thursday Night Football (how many players can we hurt) Game of the Week. Normally, that's a good thing. Tonight is the one night a year that it isn't. My Bears, fresh off of two losses (one expected (Saints) and one disappointing (El Lions)) get to play in the Thursday Night Football (Roger Goodell and the Owners are money grubbing sycophants) Game of the Week.

A few notes on my Bears before we delve into the picks for this week:
- Jay Cutler has lost himself about ten million dollars per year off his next contract at this point. He continues to be sloppy with the ball, makes stupid throws, and seems to have no sense of where the pressure is coming from. That's not to demonize him: he's still a top 15 to top 20 QB in the world, and he's far better than our other options. That's just to say that he hasn't taken the jump, and seems extremely unlikely to at this point in his career. And that ten mil a year? I figure his best case scenario was that he looks great in a new offense, limits his mistakes, and can easily land a deal that averages 20 million per year (if Flacco can do it so can Jay). His start to the year opened up that discussion. The last two games have halted that discussion.
- To directly quote Hub Arkush, "I think it will surprise you that the Bears are tied for number six in the NFL in yards per carry, and are in the top half in total rushing yards in the NFL." Well, yes Hub that does surprise me. But facts are facts. The Bears, again to follow Hub's reasoning, need to be smarter about when to run and how to run. They do well moving to the outside on stretch plays, do well on delay draws that force the secondary to think pass, and they under utilize Michael Bush. Let's run on the Giants tonight boys.
- Brandon Marshall needs to get open more often, but if we can keep going to Jeffrey and Bennett (Martellus, not that pass dropping joke Earl) then he will eventually get open.
- I think it's time to put the DJ Williams experiment to rest and give Jon Bostic a chance in the middle.
- All the injuries to the D-Line mean our defense will likely be increasingly toothless moving forward. If Julius Peppers doesn't  have a major resurgence soon he won't be playing in Chicago next year.
- I still think the most likely outcome of this year for the Bears is 9-7 or 10-6, missing the playoffs, and then cleaning house (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman gone on D, Cutler gone on offense). They don't want to invest in an aging team that has the upside of a first round playoff exit. Nor should they. Look to the Northside of Chicago gentlemen. That's how to work on rebuilding a team.

On to the picks:

Thursday Night Football (Really, Really Sucks) Game of the Week

Chicago (-8) over the NY Giants - Thursday night football games tend to be really screwy, so I feel approximately 1000% less confident in this pick than I would if it was your standard 1pm EST start time. That said, the Bears must show the ability to handle a team like the Giants if they want to have a shot at the playoffs moving forward.

Sunday Early Games

Cincinnati (-8) over Buffalo - I am really tempted to take the Bills, but not with them starting who knows who at QB, not with Spiller still injured (thanks for that help Fantasy Gods), not with Steve Johnson in the witness protection program (wait, he's not in witness protection? Where is he?), and not with the Bengals realizing what their future was last week with their grind it out win over the New England Bradys.

Cleveland (+1) over Detroit - there is strange momentum coming out of Cleveland right now, and this pick is made expecting Calvin Johnson to miss the game, which will enable the front seven of the Browns to really target on Reggie Bush. If Johnson plays, then I think that the Lions will win.

Oakland (+10) over Kansas City - and so I ask myself, is Oakland closer to Tennessee, Dallas and Philadelphia than it is to the NY Giants and the Jags? Strangely I think so. Why does that matter? Because the first three teams all would have covered a ten point spread in their games with KC, whereas the last two would not have. I think KC wins straight up, but I think Oakland covers.

Minnesota (-1) over Carolina - How is Ron Rivera still the head coach in Carolina? How is it possible that the Vikings have three QBs who were unquestioned starters week one last year (Ponder, Cassel and Freeman) but still don't have any QBs? How is it possible that I've typed this many words about this game?

Pittsburgh (+2) over the NY Jets - The Steelers are rested after a bye week, and the Jets have to be coming down from an emotional high after murdering the Falcon's season on Monday night. The Steelers have to win sometime, right?

Philadelphia (-2) over Tampa Bay - Tampa's D should actually keep the Chip Kelly offense (vastly overrated as it may be) in check. But the Tampa offense is starting Mike Glennon. I don't ask for much, but could Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy both have big games here? Thanks.

Green Bay (-2) over Baltimore - I don't know what to make of either of these teams, but this game should tell us something. Flacco is vastly overpaid, of that I'm sure (and I have been sure of that since he signed that contract). I'm not starting the Ravens D this week just to be safe.

Houston (-9) over St. Louis - I mean, the Rams were the cure for what ailed the 49ers, right?

Sunday Late Games

Denver (-27) over Jacksonville - boy that game between Denver and Dallas was a ton of fun: to watch, for my fantasy teams (starting Manning in one and Romo in the other) and for my Uncle (watching the CowGirls throw it away after playing over their heads for the entire game). I think this one will be fun for my fantasy team still.

Seattle (-15) over Tennessee - I actually wrote down the Titans until I remembered that a) Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting for them, and b) Seattle was probably pretty motivated after blowing that game to Indy last week.

New Orleans (+3) over New England - I don't see any way that the Pats keep up with the Saints, although if they do I hope it is because of a huge return by Rob Gronkowski (yes, again, on my fantasy team).

Arizona (+12) over San Francisco - I'll take the 49ers straight up, but their offense has not looked near good enough for me to want to take them minus twelve.

Sunday Night Game

Dallas (-6) over Washington - after playing Denver this game should feel much better for the Romo's.

Monday Night Game
Colts (+3) over San Diego - I'm tired of picking against the Colts and losing. I'll still be rooting against the Colts. In other words: time to begin hedging bets.

Last week against the spread: 8-6 (started strong, ended weak)
Last week straight up: 9-5
Season against the spread: 39-35-3
Season straight up: 47-30

Until next time: Thursday Night Football is an evil creation by money hungry selfish owners ... and it sucks.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Well, let's start, once again, with the end of the post at the start:

Last week against the spread: 7-8
Last week straight up: 7-8
Season against the spread: 31-29-3
Season straight up: 38-25

So ... yeah, all that breakdown stuff didn't really help out too much. Looking at last weeks games, here were the big eye openers:

- Baltimore losing to Buffalo and Cincinnati losing to Cleveland makes me wonder big time about the toughness of the AFC North. A quarter of the way through the year and we are sitting here with Baltimore and Cincinnati tied at 2-2 with Cleveland.
- Pittsburgh losing to Minnesota makes me wonder if they wouldn't be better off tanking the rest of the year to get a high pick. Trading Big Ben for something right now would also be a strong move ... if the Steelers management can stomach rebuilding. There are plenty of years of evidence that this isn't the route they will take. Keep in mind this is a franchise that has had exactly three coaches since 1969 (Noll, Cowher and Tomlin). They like to have consistency, and they like to keep their team in some level of playoff contention every year. In fact, consider the teams record each year since hiring Noll:

• 1969: 1-13 (the start of the Noll years)
• 1970: 5-9
• 1971: 6-8
• 1972: 11-3 (Playoffs)
• 1973: 10-4 (Playoffs)
• 1974: 10-3-1 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1975: 12-2 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1976: 10-4 (Playoffs)
• 1977: 9-5 (Playoffs)
• 1978: 14-2 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1979: 12-4 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1980: 9-7
• 1981: 8-8
• 1982: 6-3 (Playoffs)
• 1983: 10-6 (Playoffs)
• 1984: 9-7 (Playoffs)
• 1985: 7-9
• 1986: 6-10
• 1987: 8-7
• 1988: 5-11
• 1989: 9-7
• 1990: 9-7
• 1991: 7-9 (Noll's Last Year)
• 1992: 11-5 (Playoffs) (Cowher's 1st Year)
• 1993: 9-7 (Playoffs)
• 1994: 12-4 (Playoffs)
• 1995: 11-5 (Lost Super Bowl)
• 1996: 10-6 (Playoffs)
• 1997: 11-5 (Playoffs)
• 1998: 7-9 
• 1999: 6-10
• 2000: 9-7
• 2001: 13-3 (Playoffs)
• 2002: 10-5-1 (Playoffs)
• 2003: 6-10
• 2004: 15-1 (Playoffs)
• 2005: 11-5 (Won Super Bowl)
• 2006: 8-8 (Cowher's Last Year)
• 2007: 10-6 (Playoffs) (Tomlin's First Year)
• 2008: 12-4 (Won Super Bowl)
• 2009: 9-7
• 2010: 12-4 (Lost Super Bowl) (Year Gregg Came Out As Packers Fan)
• 2011: 12-4 (Playoffs)
• 2012: 8-8

- Okay, now that I typed all that out, what does it tell us about the Steelers? First, this 0-4 start has them in line for some historically bad football by Pittsburgh standards. 1969 bad. Noll's first year bad. Since that 1-13 year in year one of the Noll regime, the Steelers have had four years with double digit losses: 1986 (ten losses), 1988 (eleven losses), 1999 (ten losses) and 2003 (ten losses). At the rate they are going this year (and, the way they should keep going if they want a good chance at rebuilding quickly) they will blow past 11 losses. Compare that with the twenty one years that they have had double digit wins in that same period, and ... wait a minute, why in the hell am I Bears fan again?!?!?!? Sorry, that just came out. I'll try to stay focused. So, point one is that this year is historic for this franchise that has made the playoffs twenty six times since 1970. Point two is that Mike Tomlin is almost assuredly safer in his job than any other coach this side of New England. It would be one of the biggest shocks in modern sports if they let him go given their history of standing by coaches through down periods. The third point: can you imagine a coach with as mediocre a record as Noll had in the 1980s lasting longer than 3 years in today's NFL? Yeah, I can't either. 

- Another team that would benefit from tanking for a high pick: the NY Giants. You've gotta figure that Coughlin is safe with his two Super Bowl rings ... but he doesn't coach in Pittsburgh. 

- Somehow New England is 4-0. And New Orleans exposed the Dolphins as being a potential "good-bad team candidate" for this year. 

So, with these things in mind, on to the picks:

Thursday Night Game

Buffalo (+4) over Cleveland - First, THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SUCKS. Seriously, is there any redeeming quality to this money grab? While you are giving that some thought, read this article about a new book coming out, remind yourself that the NFL ownership is likely to drive the league to ruin over the next 20 years due to concussion and injury issues they've tried to sweep under the rug, and then ask yourself what it means that we (myself very much included) love the NFL so much. Thursday Night Football is an example of the brazen lack of concern for the players health on behalf of the owners. Also, these teams are scary similar: underrated Ds, disappointing running games, huge question marks that are capable of big games at QB, rookie head coaches. Idea: can we combine the teams together and split home games 50/50 between Buffalo and Cleveland? Who says no to that first? (Hint: not the three remaining Bills fans). 

Sunday Early Games

New Orleans (-1) over Chicago - Um ... did anyone watch the Jay Cutler melt down against Detroit? Yeah ... this Saints D is much better than Detroit's D, and the Saints offense would be the best in the league if Peyton wasn't doing historically silly things in Denver. I'm fully prepared to watch my Bears get taken to the wood shed Sunday. 

New England (+1) over Cincinnati - Brady is getting in rhythm with his WRs and will get Gronk and Amendola back someday soon. Cincinnati losing last week to Cleveland makes me unsure what to do with them. 

Green Bay (-8) over Detroit - this line is way too high, but the Pack has had two weeks to plan for this game, and they need this win to not fall dangerously behind in the division. 

Kansas City (-3) over Tennessee - with Locker out I'll go with KC ... but they've got to lose sometime right? Their D is fierce, Charles is insane right now, but Alex Smith looks like a rich man's Trent Dilfer. That can't last forever, right? Right?

Seattle (-3) over Indianapolis - I just hope the Colts lose. That's my only thought on this one. 

St. Louis (-13) over Jacksonville - this line is insane. St. Louis is not a good team, and yet they are favored by nearly two TDs. This shouldn't happen in the NFL. And yet, until the Jags prove they can score, I cannot pick them. Next week they play Denver. I would take Denver -35. 

Baltimore (+3) over Miami - I think the Saints showed cracks in the Dolphins attack, and I think Baltimore is going to be an up and down team this year... and this is the week for the up. Also, I could use a good week from Joe Flacco in fantasy football ... you know, if you're listening Joe. 

Philadelphia (+1) over NY Giants - well, since I picked both these teams to win 10 games or more, seeing them at a combined 1-7 through four weeks is a bit disheartening. For the Eagles to have any shot of rebounding to win the division (also my pick) they have to win here. The Giants have been just bad enough to make me believe that can happen. 

Sunday Late Games

Arizona (+2) over Carolina - Carolina shouldn't be favored on the road unless they are playing Jacksonville.

Denver (-9) over Dallas - Peyton is playing better than ever. How is this possible? One answer: Steroids. Second answer: he's an android. 

Sunday Night Game

San Francisco (-6) over Houston - both these teams really need this game. I think Houston is starting to lose confidence in Schaub, so I'll lean towards San Fran. 

Sunday "Whoops, the A's made the playoffs so we have to start this at nearly midnight in the East" game

San Diego (-4) over Oakland - I won't be staying up for this one

Monday Night Game

Atlanta (-11) over NY Jets - this is a good line. I've gotta believe the Falcons want a statement game after a 1-3 start.