Here we are again, only it's that much worse. Thursday night is my late night, so I never get to watch the spectacle that is the Thursday Night Football (how many players can we hurt) Game of the Week. Normally, that's a good thing. Tonight is the one night a year that it isn't. My Bears, fresh off of two losses (one expected (Saints) and one disappointing (El Lions)) get to play in the Thursday Night Football (Roger Goodell and the Owners are money grubbing sycophants) Game of the Week.
A few notes on my Bears before we delve into the picks for this week:
- Jay Cutler has lost himself about ten million dollars per year off his next contract at this point. He continues to be sloppy with the ball, makes stupid throws, and seems to have no sense of where the pressure is coming from. That's not to demonize him: he's still a top 15 to top 20 QB in the world, and he's far better than our other options. That's just to say that he hasn't taken the jump, and seems extremely unlikely to at this point in his career. And that ten mil a year? I figure his best case scenario was that he looks great in a new offense, limits his mistakes, and can easily land a deal that averages 20 million per year (if Flacco can do it so can Jay). His start to the year opened up that discussion. The last two games have halted that discussion.
- To directly quote Hub Arkush, "I think it will surprise you that the Bears are tied for number six in the NFL in yards per carry, and are in the top half in total rushing yards in the NFL." Well, yes Hub that does surprise me. But facts are facts. The Bears, again to follow Hub's reasoning, need to be smarter about when to run and how to run. They do well moving to the outside on stretch plays, do well on delay draws that force the secondary to think pass, and they under utilize Michael Bush. Let's run on the Giants tonight boys.
- Brandon Marshall needs to get open more often, but if we can keep going to Jeffrey and Bennett (Martellus, not that pass dropping joke Earl) then he will eventually get open.
- I think it's time to put the DJ Williams experiment to rest and give Jon Bostic a chance in the middle.
- All the injuries to the D-Line mean our defense will likely be increasingly toothless moving forward. If Julius Peppers doesn't have a major resurgence soon he won't be playing in Chicago next year.
- I still think the most likely outcome of this year for the Bears is 9-7 or 10-6, missing the playoffs, and then cleaning house (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman gone on D, Cutler gone on offense). They don't want to invest in an aging team that has the upside of a first round playoff exit. Nor should they. Look to the Northside of Chicago gentlemen. That's how to work on rebuilding a team.
On to the picks:
Thursday Night Football (Really, Really Sucks) Game of the Week
Chicago (-8) over the NY Giants - Thursday night football games tend to be really screwy, so I feel approximately 1000% less confident in this pick than I would if it was your standard 1pm EST start time. That said, the Bears must show the ability to handle a team like the Giants if they want to have a shot at the playoffs moving forward.
Sunday Early Games
Cincinnati (-8) over Buffalo - I am really tempted to take the Bills, but not with them starting who knows who at QB, not with Spiller still injured (thanks for that help Fantasy Gods), not with Steve Johnson in the witness protection program (wait, he's not in witness protection? Where is he?), and not with the Bengals realizing what their future was last week with their grind it out win over the New England Bradys.
Cleveland (+1) over Detroit - there is strange momentum coming out of Cleveland right now, and this pick is made expecting Calvin Johnson to miss the game, which will enable the front seven of the Browns to really target on Reggie Bush. If Johnson plays, then I think that the Lions will win.
Oakland (+10) over Kansas City - and so I ask myself, is Oakland closer to Tennessee, Dallas and Philadelphia than it is to the NY Giants and the Jags? Strangely I think so. Why does that matter? Because the first three teams all would have covered a ten point spread in their games with KC, whereas the last two would not have. I think KC wins straight up, but I think Oakland covers.
Minnesota (-1) over Carolina - How is Ron Rivera still the head coach in Carolina? How is it possible that the Vikings have three QBs who were unquestioned starters week one last year (Ponder, Cassel and Freeman) but still don't have any QBs? How is it possible that I've typed this many words about this game?
Pittsburgh (+2) over the NY Jets - The Steelers are rested after a bye week, and the Jets have to be coming down from an emotional high after murdering the Falcon's season on Monday night. The Steelers have to win sometime, right?
Philadelphia (-2) over Tampa Bay - Tampa's D should actually keep the Chip Kelly offense (vastly overrated as it may be) in check. But the Tampa offense is starting Mike Glennon. I don't ask for much, but could Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy both have big games here? Thanks.
Green Bay (-2) over Baltimore - I don't know what to make of either of these teams, but this game should tell us something. Flacco is vastly overpaid, of that I'm sure (and I have been sure of that since he signed that contract). I'm not starting the Ravens D this week just to be safe.
Houston (-9) over St. Louis - I mean, the Rams were the cure for what ailed the 49ers, right?
Sunday Late Games
Denver (-27) over Jacksonville - boy that game between Denver and Dallas was a ton of fun: to watch, for my fantasy teams (starting Manning in one and Romo in the other) and for my Uncle (watching the CowGirls throw it away after playing over their heads for the entire game). I think this one will be fun for my fantasy team still.
Seattle (-15) over Tennessee - I actually wrote down the Titans until I remembered that a) Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting for them, and b) Seattle was probably pretty motivated after blowing that game to Indy last week.
New Orleans (+3) over New England - I don't see any way that the Pats keep up with the Saints, although if they do I hope it is because of a huge return by Rob Gronkowski (yes, again, on my fantasy team).
Arizona (+12) over San Francisco - I'll take the 49ers straight up, but their offense has not looked near good enough for me to want to take them minus twelve.
Sunday Night Game
Dallas (-6) over Washington - after playing Denver this game should feel much better for the Romo's.
Monday Night Game
Colts (+3) over San Diego - I'm tired of picking against the Colts and losing. I'll still be rooting against the Colts. In other words: time to begin hedging bets.
Last week against the spread: 8-6 (started strong, ended weak)
Last week straight up: 9-5
Season against the spread: 39-35-3
Season straight up: 47-30
Until next time: Thursday Night Football is an evil creation by money hungry selfish owners ... and it sucks.
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