In his most recent column Bill Simmons writes about the "Levels of Losing," and his column culminates in a ranking, backwards from 15 to 1, of the most tortured fan bases. Of course, as you might expect, the Chicago Cubs were on there. What I found humorous, after reading the article, was that as I went through the article I found myself hoping, with growing intensity, that the Cubs would be ranked number one. I mean we had to win at this, right?
Well, then I found myself, long around number eight, realizing that we hadn't been named yet, and I had two distinct feelings:
A) "Woohoo! We made it halfway in! Go Cubbies!"
and
B) "I bet the Vikings are going to win because of their last game. I bet he'll find a way to put someone ahead of us. I bet we'll be like number four."
Now, with all due respect to Mr. Simmons ... THAT is the hands down, no doubt indicator of a man with a tortured sports soul. I found myself rooting that the Cubs would win at a list that a) means nothing, and b) means that we suck (but at least validates that we are noble in pulling for the most tortured team), and then I found myself expecting us to lose at that very list. That, my friends, is a cursed franchise, and what it's like to root for one.
Here is a link to Simmons' article; I encourage everyone to check it out, it's a good read. Beyond that, Spring Training is just around the corner ... and the Cubs outfield looks not too shabby :-)
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Good Vs. Evil & The Death Of Football As We Know It
February 2nd an epic event occurs. For the past five seasons a good number of people have been taken in by the story provided by the television show LOST. Now, as the sixth and final season prepares to begin there has been a clear paradigm set up: good versus evil.
On the one side we have Jacob, the man who gives directions to those who lead the group of inhabitants on the island. On the other we have the mysterious “Man in Black,” who finds his loophole back to the island through the deceased John Locke. The war, as we’ve been told, is coming. Strangely enough, LOST isn’t the only place we find this division of good versus evil. In fact, another battle of similar quality will take place February 7th …
The Indianapolis Colts. A franchise stolen from the city of Baltimore, its rightful home, in the middle of the night. A franchise which was failing as recently as the late 1990s, and was on its way to Los Angeles. A franchise which had fans that would not support the team … until a “savior” arrived. Why is it that I despise the Colts so much? To answer that question, one must go back to the 1990s, specifically to the 1995 season … to Jim Harbaugh.
The Colts made an improbable run that year. After over a decade of being inconsequential since being stolen from Baltimore, the Colts made a run to the AFC title game, all on the shoulders of a former Chicago Bears quarterback, Mr. Jim Harbaugh. The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Colts in the championship game that year, and they went on to lose to the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl. But what I remember about that year was that nobody cared about the Colts making that run. It was Indianapolis Pacers time, and nobody had time to pull for the Colts. Nobody cared, and that is why in the late 1990s the Irsay family was more than prepared to rob the city of Indianapolis, much as they had robbed Baltimore, by moving the Colts to Los Angeles. If L.A. hadn’t pulled out you had better believe that the city of Indianapolis would be down to just one major professional sports team right now.
But why would Irsay want to move the team again? Quite simply, the fans are not, and never have been, die hard football fans. They don’t support the team. They didn’t in the 1990s, and still weren’t in the early 2000s, even once “El Savior” Manning arrived. Now they pile into the Oil Dome (did a friend of George W. give money or something? Since when was there oil in any decent quantity in Indiana?), and they wear their blue jerseys, and they say “GO HORSE” and they pretend they give a damn. But they didn’t for the first twenty years the team was in Indianapolis, and if the current plight of the Indianapolis Pacers is any indication, they won’t care again once the team starts losing again.
You see, in the 1990s and early 2000s it was the Pacers that held the hearts of the dimwits who think Indianapolis is a “real metropolis.” The Pacers had Reggie Miller (who, many a Pacers fan swore was every bit as good as his Airness), and they seemed on the verge of winning it all a few times. Furthermore, the Pacers had another big thing going for them. They played basketball, the sport which Indiana loves. The state of Indiana couldn’t really care less about football, which is another reason for the Colts near-demise. Indiana is all about basketball, and always has been unless you live in the northernmost regions of the state, where the Golden Dome used to be king. The catch, however, is that those who lived in the shadow of the dome didn’t have anything other than Chicago to look towards for professional sports. And so the Colts didn’t matter to them, even once they were stolen.
And so the Pacers were the “it” team, and nobody wanted to watch Peyton blow another playoff game, choke away another chance to advance in the playoffs. When the Malice at the Palace occurred, the Pacers chance of amounting to anything in the immediate future was destroyed. Now, not even a decade later, the Pacers are near last in the NBA in attendance, and their owners are losing tons of money. What Colts fans don’t want to acknowledge is that within a decade, this plight will be their own as well … except, if the Pacers are any indication (and they are) no fans will be around who will care.
So, while reflecting on this past, I have come to two conclusions as to why I despise the Colts so. You see, I didn’t always feel this way. I am a Steelers fan after being a Bears fan, but I can genuinely remember cheering for the Colts to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game back in the 1990s. Two things have changed:
1. Peyton Manning is as self centered an athlete as I have had the privilege of following. The man is an
exceptional tactician on the field, and has gotten over the very real inability to win the big game with
flying colors. That said, he is a pompous jerk who has made a career out of blaming his team mates for all
of his failures. Check out this article, written just after the Colts were upset by the Steelers in 2005. Or
look at this video clip of the aforementioned press conference (“I’m trying to be a good teammate here …
let’s just say we had some problems in protection”). Honestly, the man has seemingly never pointed at
himself and said “my bad.” Watch him. He’s always telling his receivers what they did wrong, and never
pointing at himself. Manning is an all time great, and if he wins next week then he will become a certain
top five all time QB, with the inside track on #2 all time behind Montana. But that will never change the
fact that he is a jerk, and most likely a horrible human being.
2. Colts fans. For one, now there are “Colts fans,” whereas in the 1990s there really weren’t very many. My friend Andy is a perfect description of most Colts fans: he just wants to root for a winning team, so he jumped on to the Colts bandwagon. But, on the flip side, Andy has something that most Colts fans don’t: He understands the game of football. He played it. He knows how it works. The VAST majority of Colts fans don’t know the game at all, and just root for the team because it’s popular to do so. I’ve seen how fair-weather they are. I watched, out of the back of my apartment in Bloomington, the year the Steelers upset the Colts. What were Colts fans doing? They were burning their Peyton Manning jerseys. I kid you not. Incidentally, one of my happiest moments as a sports fan was that day, although it is quite obvious that I celebrated too much, because with a second Colts Super Bowl in the following four years on the horizon it appears that those very Colts fans will have the last laugh. Even if they had to rush out to buy another pink Manning Jersey after burning their first one.
So it comes down to this: a self-centered jerk of a QB who is a piss-poor teammate … and a bunch of ignorant fans who are bandwagon jumpers and will move on without blinking when their team sucks again after Manning retires or gets hurt. That is why I cannot stand this team.
And now they play the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. I suppose it is righteous that the Saints will come marching in to Miami. You see, the last time the Colts did this it was my team, the great Chicago Bears, that tried to slay the Indianapolis Ponies. Courtesy of Benedict Arnold Grossman (he of the TAINT which lost the game ((TAINT stands for “Touchdown After Interception))), who was robbed of Super Bowl MVP, Manning managed to back in to a championship, and has become a force of nature ever since. The Bears failed, and have spent the past three years breaking my heart and finding excuses to keep Lovie Smith on as head coach (although we can’t seem to find anyone who wants to coach with him). But, all that aside, the Saints would be my second choice out of the NFC because of one simple reason: they are good people.
I’ve seen what the team did, what the players did, for the city of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina brought so much damage and destruction down. A handful of those players even came to talk to some of our volunteers on a relief trip. Drew Brees, Sean Payton, Deuce McCallister … even Reggie Bush. They have made New Orleans their home, and they play with a fan base that knows true suffering, and even more than that, they play for a fan base that CARES. Four and a half years after Katrina, people around the country have forgotten, but this team hasn’t, and its fans never will. I’ve been there, and I know how much this will mean to them. The Colts, their fans … they could never understand what it’s like to be united with a city, to have the weight of the world on your shoulders. They would never understand.
And so, again, it is good against evil. On the one hand you have Peyton Manning and his cronies, a group that allows themselves to be badmouthed by Manning for the chance he will carry them to the promised land. On the other, the Saints, a team united by a common cause, a bond forged through tragedy, and a purpose stronger than anything Manning could ever imagine.
Even so, we also are seeing the death of football as we knew it. The Bears couldn’t win with a running game, they “had to pass” until Grossman threw it away. Even the Steelers last year had to throw to avoid being taken under by the Cardinals passing attack. In the history of the NFL you won by running the ball and by playing defense. Those two aspects, seemingly, no longer matter. The Saints and the Colts have made it this far by slinging the ball down the field, and there is no doubt that is the way this will end. Still, I have to hope that the righteous will prevail, that the Saints will manage to do what the Bears could not: force Manning into another in a long line of big game defeats. But it is starting to feel like the dark side has won the battle, and like Peyton will get the last laugh. Needless to say, it is a shame that Tom Brady’s knee went down last year, because he was the one who had held Manning back for so long. Help us New Orleans Saints … you’re our only hope.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
The Championships: Do I Know Anything?
Last weekend I spent the better part of an hour, during the Colts - Ravens game, explaining why the Jets were such a bad matchup for the Chargers. I broke them down by each area, and illustrated why the Chargers would be lucky to survive. And yet I picked San Diego to win.
Why, you might ask, would I do such a thing when I knew how bad of a matchup this was? Furthermore, what caused me to pick the Chargers to win by TWO TOUCHDOWNS when I knew all this? The answer, as always, is that I wanted to believe San Diego would win, and win convincingly. I wanted them to win because I needed them to win. They presented the toughest opponent for the hated Colts to play. They represented my best chance to win my fantasy football league, as I have (had) Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson on my team. Somewhere inside of me I needed San Diego to survive, so I picked them to survive by two touchdowns. Then I watched as New York did exactly what I said they would do: dismantle the Chargers, hang in there, and beat them.
And so, for this week, I have decided that the only thing to do is to push onward with my picks. I'm 2-6 this year. A losing playoffs is ensured at this point. But I still have my pride. This weekend we get one game we wanted (New Orleans hosting Minnesota) and one game we didn't (the underdog Jets heading into Indianapolis). The lines in Las Vegas indicate that the Jets are dogs by right around eight points, while the Vikings are dogs by around four and a half points. The New York - Indy line doesn't surprise me much, but I am surprised that New Orleans is favored by that much. Did nobody pay attention to what Minnesota did to Dallas last week?
Anyway, lines aside, here is a breakdown of each of the key areas in these games, and then a pick on who will win. I will break each area down from the team that is the best in that area to the team that is the worst. Each team will get 4 points for an area they are ranked 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd and 1 for 4th.
QBs - Indianapolis, New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Jets
This week we get three top notch, MVP caliber quarterbacks ... and then there is Mark Sanchez. As for the top three, it is a bit difficult to determine who is "number one." The easy answer is Peyton Manning, he of the four MVP awards, the most recent Super Bowl win, and all that jazz. But if you look a bit closer you are reminded that Manning just isn't that good when it comes to playoff time. He struggled mightily in the 2006 playoffs, when he backed in to a championship. He threw two interceptions within six plays last week (although one was called back due to defensive pass interference), and he has a tendency to melt under pressure. All that said, he also has shown a knack these past two years for finding ways to win, and that has to be worth something.
As for Brees and Favre, the tie breaker is twofold: Favre's age, and his penchant in the past for throwing untimely interceptions. He hasn't done it yet this year, but the man is 40 and has made a career out of it. It's gotta happen sometime.
Running Game - NY Jets, Minnesota, New Orleans, Indianapolis
The Jets have two serviceable running backs, and a dominate run blocking offensive line. The Vikings aren't far behind, but Peterson fumbles at inopportune times, and hasn't looked great the second half of the season; he ran for over 100 yards only three times this year, and only once since week 6. New Orleans has a three headed attack (at least) featuring Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell, and has had decent success running the ball. Indianapolis has struggled running the ball all year, and even with Kris Jenkins out this trend should continue.
Passing Game - New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, NY Jets
I separated QBs from the passing game because leadership and calling a game should make that position weigh heavier than the others. from a strictly passing game perspective, nobody does more than New Orleans. They have all types of different formations, hot routes, and more depth than anyone. If Colston or Shockey don't kill you Henderson or Meachem will. Brees is a master at spreading the ball around, and pressure from the front four shouldn't bother him too much with his ability to unload the ball quickly and to audible.
I went back and forth on Indy and Minnesota a few times, but even though the Vikes have roughly the same talent level in their receiving corps (Rice, Berrian, Shiancoe, Taylor, Peterson to Wayne, Collie, Clark, Garcon and Addai), Manning is just better at operating the offense than Favre is. The Jets are just praying that they don't have to throw anything other than off of a play action.
Offensive Line - Minnesota, NY Jets, Indianapolis, New Orleans
None of these teams have a big issue here, so this was a difficult category to break down. Still, it is impossible to overlook what Minnesota's offensive line did with Dallas' vaunted pass rush last week, so they get the top spot. Watching D'Brickashaw Ferguson handle Shawne Merriman last week was also impressive, and the Jets run block better than any of these other teams. Indy doesn't have a great offensive line, but they are in sink with Peyton which counts for a ton. New Orleans has had some injury issues, which puts them at the bottom.
Defense - NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans
Based on last week none of these teams have issues here either, but when you look a bit closer there are some areas that begin to show. The Jets are vulnerable to the run with Jenkins out, but are the cream of this crop. Minnesota, when health, is capable of dominating a game (just as Tony Romo). Indy has a defense based on speed over size, and that leaves them very vulnerable to teams which run right up the gut. New Orleans looked great last week, but has had some issues in the last half of the year. Still, with Jabari Greer healthy last week they looked like a different team.
Special Teams - New Orleans, NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis
Reggie Bush showed last week how much of a game changer he can be, and the Jets (whether lucky or not) have had five straight missed field goals against them. Minnesota has Percy Harvin, and Indianapolis has an old kicker who has replaced an injured old kicker.
Coaching - New Orleans, NY Jets, Indianapolis, Minnesota
There are two tiers here: the haves (New Orleans and New York) and the have nots (Indy and the Viqueens). Sean Payton is the best remaining coach; he does more than any other coach in terms of clock management and adjusting the game plan on the fly. Rex Ryan isn't far behind, and his players believe in him and feed into his passion. These two are far ahead of their counterparts, the cadaver (Jim Caldwell) and the guy you would never leave your children with (Brad Childress). Now, I must say, I have no evidence that Caldwell is actually dead (other than the fact he stands on the sideline, on camera, and doesn't even blink, let alone move). Furthermore, I have no evidence that Childress is sketchy to leave one's children around (other than that beard). But all joking aside, Caldwell wins this battle because while we haven't seen him move, motivate his team, or ... well, do anything, we have seen Brad blow the big one year after year. Coaching genius he is not. If I had to put money on which coach would:
A) - mismanage the clock
B) - waste his team's time outs
C) - challenge a play that clearly has no chance of being overturned
D) - try to pull Brett Favre in the 3rd quarter of the game to save him for next week's Pro Bowl
I would wager on Childress in each instance. God Help Minnesota here.
Karma - New Orleans, New York, Indianapolis, Minnesota
Does Karma exist? Because, if it does, there are some very clearly drawn lines this weekend. New Orleans should get the benefit of the doubt because of Katrina, and let me tell you first hand that this team has done an incredible job helping that community out. They deserve it. Behind them is New York, because the Jets have seemingly been cursed and had all kinds of bad luck for decades. Behind them is Indy, because they THREW A GAME to the Jets, allowing New York to even make the playoffs, and intentionally losing to blow a perfect season. When your fans are booing you, when your QB looks like he wants to strangle you, you just know it isn't good. Furthermore, it just isn't good karma to throw your team under the bus on nearly every play that goes wrong like Mr. Manning does. But the real winner of the karma sweepstakes is Minnesota ... because karma just doesn't like it when you retire, then unretire, then retire again just so that your team will release you, just so you can unretire just to stick it to the franchise and the fan base that loved you for so long.
The Totals: New Orleans (23) New York (22) Minnesota (18) Indianapolis (17)
So ... what does that all mean? It clearly means we are headed to a New Orleans v New York Super Bowl. And, despite the fact that I really tried hard to be unbiased in my analysis, I think it also must mean that I ... undervalued Peyton Manning. That's how I'll word it. So, just remember, I thought New York had more going for it, even though my picks will be the following:
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts
The Jets are not a great matchup for Indy, but are they as bad as they were for San Diego? Well, let's look at the areas we looked at for last week's game:
Running Games:
San Diego was 31st in the league in running offense. The only team that was worse? Indianapolis. The Colts, while averaging 8 yard per game fewer than San Diego, did average .2 yards per carry more. But, still, 3.5 yards per carry isn't that great, and it's not a good way to take advantage of the Jets biggest defensive weakness. New York, on the other hand, was the number one rushing offense in the NFL, at 172.3 yards per game.
As for rushing defense, the Chargers rushing defense ranked 20th in the NFL allowing 117.6 yards per game. The Colts? 24th at 126.5 yards per game allowed. For what it's worth, even after the injury to DT Kris Jenkins the Jets finished 8th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 98.6 yards per game. So far this matchup looks even better for the Jets than last week.
Passing Games:
San Diego was 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game, while the Colts are 2nd. (To a certain Texan who laughed at me when I mentioned the Jets shutting down the Texans, saying they didn't count, I would just like to point out that Houston ranked number one in the NFL in passing offense). The Jets, who can't pass, ranked next to last; only the Browns were worse.
In passing defense, the Jets ranked first by quite a bit, as the following numbers illustrate:
Opponent's Completion Percentage: 51.7% (next best was 54.4%, Colts allowed 63.8% and San Diego 61%)
Passing Yards Allowed: 2,459 yards (next best was 2,948!!!)
Yards Per Attempt: 5.4 (next best was 6.0)
Passing TDs Allowed: 8 ... yes, only 8 in 16 games. (next best was 14)
Opponent QB Rating: 58.8 (next best was 61.1)
So the Jets were the best in each of these areas, and generally by quite a bit.
I don't know what all that means. I do believe in the power of momentum, as well as karma coming around to bite you in the rear. But it is so hard for me to believe that the Colts aren't going to crush the Jets, then crush whoever comes next. They just seem like the team of destiny this year, and if karma was going to bite them wouldn't it have happened last round? It sure seems as if it would have.
I also know what it's like to just not believe in a team and bet against them every week. I picked against the Cardinals every week last year, only getting it right in the Super Bowl. I've picked against the Jets twice, and twice they've proven me wrong. So if I pick the Jets will the lose to spite me? I don't know. But here is what I do know. The Jets will win this game if they do the following:
- Avoid giving up the big play (they are good at this)
- Control time of possession by pounding the run at a weak center of the Colts defensive line (they are good at this)
- Minimize the plays Mark Sanchez has to make, but put him in the position to succeed with play action plays called in favorable down and distance situations (again, they have shown they can be good at this the last few weeks)
- Keep the game close, allowing the pressure to build on Peyton and the Colts (they are experts at this)
- Use exotic blitz schemes to keep Peyton guessing, and to occasionally put him on his back (they can do this)
So close your eyes with me and imagine the following: 4th quarter, Jets up 17 to 13, three minutes left. The Indianapolis crowd has been quieter than normal because they just feel it happening again. The Colts face a 3rd and 9, knowing if they don't convert and have to punt it may be the game because the Jets have been running the ball so effectively. Jim Caldwell blew a stupid time out in the 3rd quarter, and Peyton Manning threw an interception trying to force the ball to Dallas Clark on the last possession. The crowd rises to its feet, Manning steps to the line...
Now you're telling me that just because Manning has become the expert at winning in those situations in the regular season I'm supposed to believe that a lifetime of big game experiences of coming short won't creep into his mind? That those fans won't be on the verge of booing, blaming the Colts for even allowing the Jets to make the playoffs? The number one rule in a horror movie is that you can't allow the villain to survive when you get the chance to off him. Now the Colts are facing that villain, and that villain has all the momentum. I know Colts fans, and I know that they will be prepared for the self destruction in that moment. And I believe that the Jets can get to that moment. What I can't believe is that I talked myself in to this...
THE PICK: Jets 20 - Colts 16
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
This game, for me, is much more simple. Can the Vikings play the game of their lives for a second straight week? Can their defensive line dominate the way they did last week again? Even if they do, will Brees melt under pressure like Romo did? I just don't think that the following things can happen again:
- The aforementioned Vikings defense, which we can't forget gave up 36 points to the freaking Chicago Bears last month in a must win game, playing to perfection for a second straight week
- Brett Favre being error proof again, this time in a dome that is yelling at inopportune times
- Adrian Peterson avoiding the killer fumble again
Above all else, Sean Payton won't make the same coaching errors Wade Phillips did (such as attempting long field goals with inconsistent kickers when field position is the name of the game). Minnesota looked great last week. New Orleans looked like they were on a mission...
THE PICK: Saints 38 Vikings 17
Why, you might ask, would I do such a thing when I knew how bad of a matchup this was? Furthermore, what caused me to pick the Chargers to win by TWO TOUCHDOWNS when I knew all this? The answer, as always, is that I wanted to believe San Diego would win, and win convincingly. I wanted them to win because I needed them to win. They presented the toughest opponent for the hated Colts to play. They represented my best chance to win my fantasy football league, as I have (had) Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson on my team. Somewhere inside of me I needed San Diego to survive, so I picked them to survive by two touchdowns. Then I watched as New York did exactly what I said they would do: dismantle the Chargers, hang in there, and beat them.
And so, for this week, I have decided that the only thing to do is to push onward with my picks. I'm 2-6 this year. A losing playoffs is ensured at this point. But I still have my pride. This weekend we get one game we wanted (New Orleans hosting Minnesota) and one game we didn't (the underdog Jets heading into Indianapolis). The lines in Las Vegas indicate that the Jets are dogs by right around eight points, while the Vikings are dogs by around four and a half points. The New York - Indy line doesn't surprise me much, but I am surprised that New Orleans is favored by that much. Did nobody pay attention to what Minnesota did to Dallas last week?
Anyway, lines aside, here is a breakdown of each of the key areas in these games, and then a pick on who will win. I will break each area down from the team that is the best in that area to the team that is the worst. Each team will get 4 points for an area they are ranked 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd and 1 for 4th.
QBs - Indianapolis, New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Jets
This week we get three top notch, MVP caliber quarterbacks ... and then there is Mark Sanchez. As for the top three, it is a bit difficult to determine who is "number one." The easy answer is Peyton Manning, he of the four MVP awards, the most recent Super Bowl win, and all that jazz. But if you look a bit closer you are reminded that Manning just isn't that good when it comes to playoff time. He struggled mightily in the 2006 playoffs, when he backed in to a championship. He threw two interceptions within six plays last week (although one was called back due to defensive pass interference), and he has a tendency to melt under pressure. All that said, he also has shown a knack these past two years for finding ways to win, and that has to be worth something.
As for Brees and Favre, the tie breaker is twofold: Favre's age, and his penchant in the past for throwing untimely interceptions. He hasn't done it yet this year, but the man is 40 and has made a career out of it. It's gotta happen sometime.
Running Game - NY Jets, Minnesota, New Orleans, Indianapolis
The Jets have two serviceable running backs, and a dominate run blocking offensive line. The Vikings aren't far behind, but Peterson fumbles at inopportune times, and hasn't looked great the second half of the season; he ran for over 100 yards only three times this year, and only once since week 6. New Orleans has a three headed attack (at least) featuring Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell, and has had decent success running the ball. Indianapolis has struggled running the ball all year, and even with Kris Jenkins out this trend should continue.
Passing Game - New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, NY Jets
I separated QBs from the passing game because leadership and calling a game should make that position weigh heavier than the others. from a strictly passing game perspective, nobody does more than New Orleans. They have all types of different formations, hot routes, and more depth than anyone. If Colston or Shockey don't kill you Henderson or Meachem will. Brees is a master at spreading the ball around, and pressure from the front four shouldn't bother him too much with his ability to unload the ball quickly and to audible.
I went back and forth on Indy and Minnesota a few times, but even though the Vikes have roughly the same talent level in their receiving corps (Rice, Berrian, Shiancoe, Taylor, Peterson to Wayne, Collie, Clark, Garcon and Addai), Manning is just better at operating the offense than Favre is. The Jets are just praying that they don't have to throw anything other than off of a play action.
Offensive Line - Minnesota, NY Jets, Indianapolis, New Orleans
None of these teams have a big issue here, so this was a difficult category to break down. Still, it is impossible to overlook what Minnesota's offensive line did with Dallas' vaunted pass rush last week, so they get the top spot. Watching D'Brickashaw Ferguson handle Shawne Merriman last week was also impressive, and the Jets run block better than any of these other teams. Indy doesn't have a great offensive line, but they are in sink with Peyton which counts for a ton. New Orleans has had some injury issues, which puts them at the bottom.
Defense - NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans
Based on last week none of these teams have issues here either, but when you look a bit closer there are some areas that begin to show. The Jets are vulnerable to the run with Jenkins out, but are the cream of this crop. Minnesota, when health, is capable of dominating a game (just as Tony Romo). Indy has a defense based on speed over size, and that leaves them very vulnerable to teams which run right up the gut. New Orleans looked great last week, but has had some issues in the last half of the year. Still, with Jabari Greer healthy last week they looked like a different team.
Special Teams - New Orleans, NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis
Reggie Bush showed last week how much of a game changer he can be, and the Jets (whether lucky or not) have had five straight missed field goals against them. Minnesota has Percy Harvin, and Indianapolis has an old kicker who has replaced an injured old kicker.
Coaching - New Orleans, NY Jets, Indianapolis, Minnesota
There are two tiers here: the haves (New Orleans and New York) and the have nots (Indy and the Viqueens). Sean Payton is the best remaining coach; he does more than any other coach in terms of clock management and adjusting the game plan on the fly. Rex Ryan isn't far behind, and his players believe in him and feed into his passion. These two are far ahead of their counterparts, the cadaver (Jim Caldwell) and the guy you would never leave your children with (Brad Childress). Now, I must say, I have no evidence that Caldwell is actually dead (other than the fact he stands on the sideline, on camera, and doesn't even blink, let alone move). Furthermore, I have no evidence that Childress is sketchy to leave one's children around (other than that beard). But all joking aside, Caldwell wins this battle because while we haven't seen him move, motivate his team, or ... well, do anything, we have seen Brad blow the big one year after year. Coaching genius he is not. If I had to put money on which coach would:
A) - mismanage the clock
B) - waste his team's time outs
C) - challenge a play that clearly has no chance of being overturned
D) - try to pull Brett Favre in the 3rd quarter of the game to save him for next week's Pro Bowl
I would wager on Childress in each instance. God Help Minnesota here.
Karma - New Orleans, New York, Indianapolis, Minnesota
Does Karma exist? Because, if it does, there are some very clearly drawn lines this weekend. New Orleans should get the benefit of the doubt because of Katrina, and let me tell you first hand that this team has done an incredible job helping that community out. They deserve it. Behind them is New York, because the Jets have seemingly been cursed and had all kinds of bad luck for decades. Behind them is Indy, because they THREW A GAME to the Jets, allowing New York to even make the playoffs, and intentionally losing to blow a perfect season. When your fans are booing you, when your QB looks like he wants to strangle you, you just know it isn't good. Furthermore, it just isn't good karma to throw your team under the bus on nearly every play that goes wrong like Mr. Manning does. But the real winner of the karma sweepstakes is Minnesota ... because karma just doesn't like it when you retire, then unretire, then retire again just so that your team will release you, just so you can unretire just to stick it to the franchise and the fan base that loved you for so long.
The Totals: New Orleans (23) New York (22) Minnesota (18) Indianapolis (17)
So ... what does that all mean? It clearly means we are headed to a New Orleans v New York Super Bowl. And, despite the fact that I really tried hard to be unbiased in my analysis, I think it also must mean that I ... undervalued Peyton Manning. That's how I'll word it. So, just remember, I thought New York had more going for it, even though my picks will be the following:
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts
The Jets are not a great matchup for Indy, but are they as bad as they were for San Diego? Well, let's look at the areas we looked at for last week's game:
Running Games:
San Diego was 31st in the league in running offense. The only team that was worse? Indianapolis. The Colts, while averaging 8 yard per game fewer than San Diego, did average .2 yards per carry more. But, still, 3.5 yards per carry isn't that great, and it's not a good way to take advantage of the Jets biggest defensive weakness. New York, on the other hand, was the number one rushing offense in the NFL, at 172.3 yards per game.
As for rushing defense, the Chargers rushing defense ranked 20th in the NFL allowing 117.6 yards per game. The Colts? 24th at 126.5 yards per game allowed. For what it's worth, even after the injury to DT Kris Jenkins the Jets finished 8th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 98.6 yards per game. So far this matchup looks even better for the Jets than last week.
Passing Games:
San Diego was 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game, while the Colts are 2nd. (To a certain Texan who laughed at me when I mentioned the Jets shutting down the Texans, saying they didn't count, I would just like to point out that Houston ranked number one in the NFL in passing offense
In passing defense, the Jets ranked first by quite a bit, as the following numbers illustrate:
Opponent's Completion Percentage: 51.7% (next best was 54.4%, Colts allowed 63.8% and San Diego 61%)
Passing Yards Allowed: 2,459 yards (next best was 2,948!!!)
Yards Per Attempt: 5.4 (next best was 6.0)
Passing TDs Allowed: 8 ... yes, only 8 in 16 games. (next best was 14)
Opponent QB Rating: 58.8 (next best was 61.1)
So the Jets were the best in each of these areas, and generally by quite a bit.
I don't know what all that means. I do believe in the power of momentum, as well as karma coming around to bite you in the rear. But it is so hard for me to believe that the Colts aren't going to crush the Jets, then crush whoever comes next. They just seem like the team of destiny this year, and if karma was going to bite them wouldn't it have happened last round? It sure seems as if it would have.
I also know what it's like to just not believe in a team and bet against them every week. I picked against the Cardinals every week last year, only getting it right in the Super Bowl. I've picked against the Jets twice, and twice they've proven me wrong. So if I pick the Jets will the lose to spite me? I don't know. But here is what I do know. The Jets will win this game if they do the following:
- Avoid giving up the big play (they are good at this)
- Control time of possession by pounding the run at a weak center of the Colts defensive line (they are good at this)
- Minimize the plays Mark Sanchez has to make, but put him in the position to succeed with play action plays called in favorable down and distance situations (again, they have shown they can be good at this the last few weeks)
- Keep the game close, allowing the pressure to build on Peyton and the Colts (they are experts at this)
- Use exotic blitz schemes to keep Peyton guessing, and to occasionally put him on his back (they can do this)
So close your eyes with me and imagine the following: 4th quarter, Jets up 17 to 13, three minutes left. The Indianapolis crowd has been quieter than normal because they just feel it happening again. The Colts face a 3rd and 9, knowing if they don't convert and have to punt it may be the game because the Jets have been running the ball so effectively. Jim Caldwell blew a stupid time out in the 3rd quarter, and Peyton Manning threw an interception trying to force the ball to Dallas Clark on the last possession. The crowd rises to its feet, Manning steps to the line...
Now you're telling me that just because Manning has become the expert at winning in those situations in the regular season I'm supposed to believe that a lifetime of big game experiences of coming short won't creep into his mind? That those fans won't be on the verge of booing, blaming the Colts for even allowing the Jets to make the playoffs? The number one rule in a horror movie is that you can't allow the villain to survive when you get the chance to off him. Now the Colts are facing that villain, and that villain has all the momentum. I know Colts fans, and I know that they will be prepared for the self destruction in that moment. And I believe that the Jets can get to that moment. What I can't believe is that I talked myself in to this...
THE PICK: Jets 20 - Colts 16
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
This game, for me, is much more simple. Can the Vikings play the game of their lives for a second straight week? Can their defensive line dominate the way they did last week again? Even if they do, will Brees melt under pressure like Romo did? I just don't think that the following things can happen again:
- The aforementioned Vikings defense, which we can't forget gave up 36 points to the freaking Chicago Bears last month in a must win game, playing to perfection for a second straight week
- Brett Favre being error proof again, this time in a dome that is yelling at inopportune times
- Adrian Peterson avoiding the killer fumble again
Above all else, Sean Payton won't make the same coaching errors Wade Phillips did (such as attempting long field goals with inconsistent kickers when field position is the name of the game). Minnesota looked great last week. New Orleans looked like they were on a mission...
THE PICK: Saints 38 Vikings 17
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
The Book of Eli
For a long time I have enjoyed going to the movies. I have gone, traditionally, at least once a month, and I generally see a wide variety of films. I like to be kept up to the minute on which films will be "Oscar contenders" and which films will fly under the radar, yet be worth owning when they come out on DVD. But something strange has happened in the past few months: much like updating this blog, I haven't had the time to go to the cinema. Life has gotten in the way. But, in the midst of my vacation, I was able to find my way into a nice, new Cinemark in Denton, Texas. The movie of choice was "The Book of Eli."
I wanted to see this movie because of Denzel Washington. I've always thought that Washington was a good actor who generally got himself typecast into these nice, neat roles without much range. As his career has progressed he began doing more movies which pressed the issue, none more successfully than "Training Day," which is a great watch. "Eli" seemed to be in a similar mold; ten years ago I would have had a hard time envisioning Denzel in a futuristic, apocalypse tale. Yet here he was, and I settled in to evaluate the show.
Washington, for his part, does well in this movie. Stylistically he often allows his looks, mixed with the grave surroundings, to convey the depth of the situation. His dialogue, early on, is almost nonexistent, and even once he begins to talk he says very little. Not a great deal is disclosed about how the world became the way it is, but leaving it to the imagination was exceptionally effective in this regard. And, once the fighting begins, Washington's trainings in the martial arts really showed.
The supporting cast, featuring Gary Oldman as the villain and Mila Kunis as the young Solara, did a serviceable job. Oldman succeeds in making you want to go after him, while Kunis continues to spread her wings and grow from her past role in "That 70s Show." As Kunis builds her relationship with Washington, and Oldman and his gangs chase them, a strict dichotomy emerges between good and evil.
Ultimately, the movie presents as your typical post-apocalyptic action flick, but it ends up delivering much more. The movie carries on at a great pace, and surprises you many times with its twists and turns. It's ending leaves much to be thought about, and if you are one to contemplate things in a big picture way then this movie is one you will enjoy.
FROM MY POINT OF VIEW: 3 1/2 out of 5
I wanted to see this movie because of Denzel Washington. I've always thought that Washington was a good actor who generally got himself typecast into these nice, neat roles without much range. As his career has progressed he began doing more movies which pressed the issue, none more successfully than "Training Day," which is a great watch. "Eli" seemed to be in a similar mold; ten years ago I would have had a hard time envisioning Denzel in a futuristic, apocalypse tale. Yet here he was, and I settled in to evaluate the show.
Washington, for his part, does well in this movie. Stylistically he often allows his looks, mixed with the grave surroundings, to convey the depth of the situation. His dialogue, early on, is almost nonexistent, and even once he begins to talk he says very little. Not a great deal is disclosed about how the world became the way it is, but leaving it to the imagination was exceptionally effective in this regard. And, once the fighting begins, Washington's trainings in the martial arts really showed.
The supporting cast, featuring Gary Oldman as the villain and Mila Kunis as the young Solara, did a serviceable job. Oldman succeeds in making you want to go after him, while Kunis continues to spread her wings and grow from her past role in "That 70s Show." As Kunis builds her relationship with Washington, and Oldman and his gangs chase them, a strict dichotomy emerges between good and evil.
Ultimately, the movie presents as your typical post-apocalyptic action flick, but it ends up delivering much more. The movie carries on at a great pace, and surprises you many times with its twists and turns. It's ending leaves much to be thought about, and if you are one to contemplate things in a big picture way then this movie is one you will enjoy.
FROM MY POINT OF VIEW: 3 1/2 out of 5
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
NFL - Divisional Round Picks
Oh and four. Just think about that. I've been picking NFL playoff games for over a decade now, and I've never gone 0-4 picking games in the NFL playoff. So, how did it happen? What did I learn?
Glad you asked:
- I was right about two road teams winning, but wrong about which teams it would be
- The Cards continue to beat me up, as I have now picked against them five straight playoff games, and they have proven me wrong four times
- The Cowboys may be really good
- You still need to run the ball to win in the playoffs
That last point was driven home in three of the four games. So, without as much detail as last week, here are this weeks picks.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
One thing I am sure of is that this will be a high scoring game, with lots of passing. The Saints finished the year losing their last three games, but it's tradition now to pick against the Cards in the playoffs. You're welcome Arizona fans (all three of you):
Saints 40 - Cardinals 32
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Three times this decade the Colts were the number one seed and rested their starters. Three times they lost their first game. They will be rusty, and Baltimore has a defense to help them get up early, and a running game to put the Colts away. But in a year that I went 0-4 in the first round, I just don't feel the good fortune of a Colts loss. In fact, this feels like the Ravens holding on to a 6 point lead, giving Manning the ball with 2 minutes left, and then watching him win the game, succeeding where he has failed so many times before. Man, I hate the Colts. Here's to hoping I get this one wrong:
Colts 24 - Ravens 23
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
I will be in Dallas for this game; the team, of course, will be in Minnesota. I can see this game going either way. If the Minnesota offensive line can't contain the Dallas front seven any better than Philly did last week this may not be much of a game. Still, Minnesota can run, which is something Philly clearly could not do. In another matchup of uninspiring coaches, I see this game coming down to who is more mistake prone. Sadly, it's Minnesota, with Favre's penchant for throwing when he shouldn't, and Peterson's habit of fumbling. I'd really rather both these teams lose:
Cowboys 34 - ViQueens 30
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
The Jets D is scary good against the pass, and the Chargers offense is scary bad when running. Not a good matchup on paper. But again and again I come back to the Chargers as the most logical team to win it all. I hope I'm not jinxing them:
Chargers 27 - Jets 13
Glad you asked:
- I was right about two road teams winning, but wrong about which teams it would be
- The Cards continue to beat me up, as I have now picked against them five straight playoff games, and they have proven me wrong four times
- The Cowboys may be really good
- You still need to run the ball to win in the playoffs
That last point was driven home in three of the four games. So, without as much detail as last week, here are this weeks picks.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
One thing I am sure of is that this will be a high scoring game, with lots of passing. The Saints finished the year losing their last three games, but it's tradition now to pick against the Cards in the playoffs. You're welcome Arizona fans (all three of you):
Saints 40 - Cardinals 32
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Three times this decade the Colts were the number one seed and rested their starters. Three times they lost their first game. They will be rusty, and Baltimore has a defense to help them get up early, and a running game to put the Colts away. But in a year that I went 0-4 in the first round, I just don't feel the good fortune of a Colts loss. In fact, this feels like the Ravens holding on to a 6 point lead, giving Manning the ball with 2 minutes left, and then watching him win the game, succeeding where he has failed so many times before. Man, I hate the Colts. Here's to hoping I get this one wrong:
Colts 24 - Ravens 23
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
I will be in Dallas for this game; the team, of course, will be in Minnesota. I can see this game going either way. If the Minnesota offensive line can't contain the Dallas front seven any better than Philly did last week this may not be much of a game. Still, Minnesota can run, which is something Philly clearly could not do. In another matchup of uninspiring coaches, I see this game coming down to who is more mistake prone. Sadly, it's Minnesota, with Favre's penchant for throwing when he shouldn't, and Peterson's habit of fumbling. I'd really rather both these teams lose:
Cowboys 34 - ViQueens 30
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
The Jets D is scary good against the pass, and the Chargers offense is scary bad when running. Not a good matchup on paper. But again and again I come back to the Chargers as the most logical team to win it all. I hope I'm not jinxing them:
Chargers 27 - Jets 13
Friday, January 8, 2010
Life is busy ...
... but not too busy for my epic comeback into the world of blogging! What could possibly bring me back to this forum, ending my impromptu retirement (which, by the way, was brought on by large quantities of work)? Well, of course it has to be the NFL playoffs.
I didn't do spectacular with my preseason picks this year (R.I.P. Bears, because not only did you fail to make the playoffs, but by bringing back Lovie Smith's catatonic body you may officially be dead to me), but I also didn't do awful ... I think. Let's review my playoff predictions at the start of the year:
"So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York"
So, how did I do? Well, lets just say I could have done better. In the AFC I was right about three of four divisional champions, missing on Pittsburgh (but then again, who didn't?). I was right about Baltimore as an AFC Wild Card team, and just missed on Houston (thanks for laying down Cincinnati...). So, in the long hall I was four for six in the AFC, missing on Pittsburgh and Houston, who were, instead, Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Not bad.
I didn't do nearly as well in the NFC, as I swung and missed big time on the Bears. My long debate at the start of the year between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota was resolved incorrectly, as Favre stayed healthy, and Cutler was possessed by the soul of Rex Grossman. Or something along those lines.
Anywho, I was correct about only one division winner in the NFC (New Orleans baby!), and one Wild Card team (Green Bay). I also was correct in stating that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, although their week 17 collapse kept me from being correct about not only their winning their division, but also their seed in the playoffs. I missed on San Francisco, Chicago, and the New York Giants.
So, on the whole, not awful. In a league where over half the teams which make the playoffs usually have missed it the year before my seven for twelve isn't all that bad. Now, on to the Wild Card Round:
NY JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
This game is not only tough to decipher (I could legitimately see it going either way), but it also is as boring a matchup as I can imagine. Seriously, who cares about this game? I know I don't. And I can't imagine you do either. Still, it has to be played, so here are a few things to consider:
-Mark Sanchez, a rookie QB who had a passer rating around 63, who threw many more INTs that TDs this year, is leading his team ON THE ROAD against a pretty tough defense.
- The Bengals have dealt with loss all year (from defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, to Chris Henry) and everyone seems to think they are going to be a one and done after last weeks lay down effort against the Jets.
- Both teams can run the ball with some semblance of effectiveness.
- Both teams have defenses in the top third of the NFL (although the Jets run defense isn't as good as it was at the start of the year with Kris Jenkins out).
So, what does it all mean? It means this game will probably be a good one to avoid watching. It means if you have to bet on this game, then take the Bengals minus the points, as the line has continued to shift towards the Jets. And it means that the Bengals will win, because they will stack the line and make Mark Sanchez beat them. Here's a hint: he won't.
FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 23 - NY Jets 13
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS
This game looks like it should be a shoot out. I'm still not sure what to make about the Eagles laying a huge egg in week 17. It's not like they had nothing to play for; if they had won they would have been the 2 seed and gotten a bye week. Still, one game does not a season make, and this game will most likely not be a repeat of week 17's yawner.
In this game we have two troubled QBs (Romo and McNabb, both of whom are frowned upon by their own fan base for various reasons), with young, dynamic WRs (Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson) and able pass catching TEs (Jason Witten and Bret Celek). Both teams can rush the passer, although Dallas is better at it right now. Both teams feature defenses that can be thrown on. Both teams have coaches (Wade Phillips and Andy Reid) who struggle to manage the clock, time outs, or ... well, anything. The biggest difference between these two teams? The Eagles cannot run the ball to save their lives (trust me, I had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy on various fantasy teams this year), while the Cowboys have a variety of backs who are capable of picking up yardage. Furthermore, Dallas won both of the matchups between these teams this year.
So, pick Dallas, right? As easy as this seems, it was only last week that everyone was on the Eagles bandwagon as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think this team fades that easily. They are dangerous, even without the run, because they can throw the ball down field. They can't control the clock to save their lives (and, even if they could, Andy Reid wouldn't know how to manage it), but I'm not sure they'll have to. I like Philly here; certainly to cover the spread, but also to win the game. Oh, and let's just say I also like the over on points...
FINAL SCORE: Philadelphia 38 - Dallas 31
BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This game, much like the Dallas - Philadelphia game, has a number of wrinkles to it. So let's break it down, position by position:
- QB: This is a no contest; Brady is still the winningest active QB in the NFL, he still has the aura around him, and this year, for the first time in quite some time, he has something to prove. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an exceptionally strong arm, but as the year went on Baltimore seemed to neuter him, holding him back more and more.
- RB: Another no contest, although not quite as definitively as it may look upon first glance. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain in the backfield, Baltimore is clearly has the superior stable of running backs. That said, New England always seems to find a way to mix and match its collection of backs for optimal production. Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk may not stand alone against Ray Rice, but they don't have to. Baltimore wins the nod here, but it's not as lopsided as some may lead you to believe.
- WR: This was a no contest in favor of the Pats until Wes Welker went down week 17 with a bunch of torn ligaments in his knee. Now, it's closer to a draw, but Moss is still better (when motivated) than the solid veteran Derrick Mason, and Julian Edelman has done a solid Welker impersonation a few times this year. This area gives a slight advantage to the Patriots.
- TE: Todd Heap is slightly better than Ben Watson. Thus, the Ravens are slightly better than the Pats.
- OL: It depends on if the Ravens left tackle is healthy and stays in the game. If he does, the advantage goes to a Baltimore team that has the luxury of playing Michael Oher on the right side. If he's not, it moves to a draw.
- Defenses: Neither defense is what it used to be, but both still have their moments. The Ravens have more big name players, but the Pats were sneaky good this year. In that regard, it's a draw.
- Special Teams: the Patriots have the much more experienced, much better kicker. 'Nuff said.
- Coaches: I still believe in Belichick.
So, it all adds up to a game that should be close, should be interesting, and could go either way.
FINAL SCORE: New England 27 - Baltimore 19
GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Really, the most important factor of this game is that I picked against the Cardinals four times in last year's playoffs and only one the Super Bowl. This game should be a shoot out, with two high powered passing offenses. But, simply put, I think Green Bay is rolling, and is more than capable of putting up points to match Arizona, but they are also a better defensive team, and a better running team. If it's close Arizona has the more reliable kicker (although he is hurt), but I'm not sure it will be that close.
FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 34 - Arizona 24
I didn't do spectacular with my preseason picks this year (R.I.P. Bears, because not only did you fail to make the playoffs, but by bringing back Lovie Smith's catatonic body you may officially be dead to me), but I also didn't do awful ... I think. Let's review my playoff predictions at the start of the year:
"So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York"
So, how did I do? Well, lets just say I could have done better. In the AFC I was right about three of four divisional champions, missing on Pittsburgh (but then again, who didn't?). I was right about Baltimore as an AFC Wild Card team, and just missed on Houston (thanks for laying down Cincinnati...). So, in the long hall I was four for six in the AFC, missing on Pittsburgh and Houston, who were, instead, Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Not bad.
I didn't do nearly as well in the NFC, as I swung and missed big time on the Bears. My long debate at the start of the year between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota was resolved incorrectly, as Favre stayed healthy, and Cutler was possessed by the soul of Rex Grossman. Or something along those lines.
Anywho, I was correct about only one division winner in the NFC (New Orleans baby!), and one Wild Card team (Green Bay). I also was correct in stating that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, although their week 17 collapse kept me from being correct about not only their winning their division, but also their seed in the playoffs. I missed on San Francisco, Chicago, and the New York Giants.
So, on the whole, not awful. In a league where over half the teams which make the playoffs usually have missed it the year before my seven for twelve isn't all that bad. Now, on to the Wild Card Round:
NY JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
This game is not only tough to decipher (I could legitimately see it going either way), but it also is as boring a matchup as I can imagine. Seriously, who cares about this game? I know I don't. And I can't imagine you do either. Still, it has to be played, so here are a few things to consider:
-Mark Sanchez, a rookie QB who had a passer rating around 63, who threw many more INTs that TDs this year, is leading his team ON THE ROAD against a pretty tough defense.
- The Bengals have dealt with loss all year (from defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, to Chris Henry) and everyone seems to think they are going to be a one and done after last weeks lay down effort against the Jets.
- Both teams can run the ball with some semblance of effectiveness.
- Both teams have defenses in the top third of the NFL (although the Jets run defense isn't as good as it was at the start of the year with Kris Jenkins out).
So, what does it all mean? It means this game will probably be a good one to avoid watching. It means if you have to bet on this game, then take the Bengals minus the points, as the line has continued to shift towards the Jets. And it means that the Bengals will win, because they will stack the line and make Mark Sanchez beat them. Here's a hint: he won't.
FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 23 - NY Jets 13
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS
This game looks like it should be a shoot out. I'm still not sure what to make about the Eagles laying a huge egg in week 17. It's not like they had nothing to play for; if they had won they would have been the 2 seed and gotten a bye week. Still, one game does not a season make, and this game will most likely not be a repeat of week 17's yawner.
In this game we have two troubled QBs (Romo and McNabb, both of whom are frowned upon by their own fan base for various reasons), with young, dynamic WRs (Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson) and able pass catching TEs (Jason Witten and Bret Celek). Both teams can rush the passer, although Dallas is better at it right now. Both teams feature defenses that can be thrown on. Both teams have coaches (Wade Phillips and Andy Reid) who struggle to manage the clock, time outs, or ... well, anything. The biggest difference between these two teams? The Eagles cannot run the ball to save their lives (trust me, I had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy on various fantasy teams this year), while the Cowboys have a variety of backs who are capable of picking up yardage. Furthermore, Dallas won both of the matchups between these teams this year.
So, pick Dallas, right? As easy as this seems, it was only last week that everyone was on the Eagles bandwagon as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think this team fades that easily. They are dangerous, even without the run, because they can throw the ball down field. They can't control the clock to save their lives (and, even if they could, Andy Reid wouldn't know how to manage it), but I'm not sure they'll have to. I like Philly here; certainly to cover the spread, but also to win the game. Oh, and let's just say I also like the over on points...
FINAL SCORE: Philadelphia 38 - Dallas 31
BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This game, much like the Dallas - Philadelphia game, has a number of wrinkles to it. So let's break it down, position by position:
- QB: This is a no contest; Brady is still the winningest active QB in the NFL, he still has the aura around him, and this year, for the first time in quite some time, he has something to prove. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an exceptionally strong arm, but as the year went on Baltimore seemed to neuter him, holding him back more and more.
- RB: Another no contest, although not quite as definitively as it may look upon first glance. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain in the backfield, Baltimore is clearly has the superior stable of running backs. That said, New England always seems to find a way to mix and match its collection of backs for optimal production. Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk may not stand alone against Ray Rice, but they don't have to. Baltimore wins the nod here, but it's not as lopsided as some may lead you to believe.
- WR: This was a no contest in favor of the Pats until Wes Welker went down week 17 with a bunch of torn ligaments in his knee. Now, it's closer to a draw, but Moss is still better (when motivated) than the solid veteran Derrick Mason, and Julian Edelman has done a solid Welker impersonation a few times this year. This area gives a slight advantage to the Patriots.
- TE: Todd Heap is slightly better than Ben Watson. Thus, the Ravens are slightly better than the Pats.
- OL: It depends on if the Ravens left tackle is healthy and stays in the game. If he does, the advantage goes to a Baltimore team that has the luxury of playing Michael Oher on the right side. If he's not, it moves to a draw.
- Defenses: Neither defense is what it used to be, but both still have their moments. The Ravens have more big name players, but the Pats were sneaky good this year. In that regard, it's a draw.
- Special Teams: the Patriots have the much more experienced, much better kicker. 'Nuff said.
- Coaches: I still believe in Belichick.
So, it all adds up to a game that should be close, should be interesting, and could go either way.
FINAL SCORE: New England 27 - Baltimore 19
GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Really, the most important factor of this game is that I picked against the Cardinals four times in last year's playoffs and only one the Super Bowl. This game should be a shoot out, with two high powered passing offenses. But, simply put, I think Green Bay is rolling, and is more than capable of putting up points to match Arizona, but they are also a better defensive team, and a better running team. If it's close Arizona has the more reliable kicker (although he is hurt), but I'm not sure it will be that close.
FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 34 - Arizona 24
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