Friday, January 8, 2010

Life is busy ...

... but not too busy for my epic comeback into the world of blogging! What could possibly bring me back to this forum, ending my impromptu retirement (which, by the way, was brought on by large quantities of work)? Well, of course it has to be the NFL playoffs.

I didn't do spectacular with my preseason picks this year (R.I.P. Bears, because not only did you fail to make the playoffs, but by bringing back Lovie Smith's catatonic body you may officially be dead to me), but I also didn't do awful ... I think. Let's review my playoff predictions at the start of the year:

"So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York"


So, how did I do? Well, lets just say I could have done better. In the AFC I was right about three of four divisional champions, missing on Pittsburgh (but then again, who didn't?). I was right about Baltimore as an AFC Wild Card team, and just missed on Houston (thanks for laying down Cincinnati...). So, in the long hall I was four for six in the AFC, missing on Pittsburgh and Houston, who were, instead, Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Not bad.

I didn't do nearly as well in the NFC, as I swung and missed big time on the Bears. My long debate at the start of the year between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota was resolved incorrectly, as Favre stayed healthy, and Cutler was possessed by the soul of Rex Grossman. Or something along those lines.

Anywho, I was correct about only one division winner in the NFC (New Orleans baby!), and one Wild Card team (Green Bay). I also was correct in stating that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, although their week 17 collapse kept me from being correct about not only their winning their division, but also their seed in the playoffs. I missed on San Francisco, Chicago, and the New York Giants.

So, on the whole, not awful. In a league where over half the teams which make the playoffs usually have missed it the year before my seven for twelve isn't all that bad. Now, on to the Wild Card Round:

NY JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

This game is not only tough to decipher (I could legitimately see it going either way), but it also is as boring a matchup as I can imagine. Seriously, who cares about this game? I know I don't. And I can't imagine you do either. Still, it has to be played, so here are a few things to consider:

-Mark Sanchez, a rookie QB who had a passer rating around 63, who threw many more INTs that TDs this year, is leading his team ON THE ROAD against a pretty tough defense.
- The Bengals have dealt with loss all year (from defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, to Chris Henry) and everyone seems to think they are going to be a one and done after last weeks lay down effort against the Jets.
- Both teams can run the ball with some semblance of effectiveness.
- Both teams have defenses in the top third of the NFL (although the Jets run defense isn't as good as it was at the start of the year with Kris Jenkins out).

So, what does it all mean? It means this game will probably be a good one to avoid watching. It means if you have to bet on this game, then take the Bengals minus the points, as the line has continued to shift towards the Jets. And it means that the Bengals will win, because they will stack the line and make Mark Sanchez beat them. Here's a hint: he won't.

FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 23 - NY Jets 13


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS

This game looks like it should be a shoot out. I'm still not sure what to make about the Eagles laying a huge egg in week 17. It's not like they had nothing to play for; if they had won they would have been the 2 seed and gotten a bye week. Still, one game does not a season make, and this game will most likely not be a repeat of week 17's yawner.

In this game we have two troubled QBs (Romo and McNabb, both of whom are frowned upon by their own fan base for various reasons), with young, dynamic WRs (Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson) and able pass catching TEs (Jason Witten and Bret Celek). Both teams can rush the passer, although Dallas is better at it right now. Both teams feature defenses that can be thrown on. Both teams have coaches (Wade Phillips and Andy Reid) who struggle to manage the clock, time outs, or ... well, anything. The biggest difference between these two teams? The Eagles cannot run the ball to save their lives (trust me, I had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy on various fantasy teams this year), while the Cowboys have a variety of backs who are capable of picking up yardage. Furthermore, Dallas won both of the matchups between these teams this year.

So, pick Dallas, right? As easy as this seems, it was only last week that everyone was on the Eagles bandwagon as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think this team fades that easily. They are dangerous, even without the run, because they can throw the ball down field. They can't control the clock to save their lives (and, even if they could, Andy Reid wouldn't know how to manage it), but I'm not sure they'll have to. I like Philly here; certainly to cover the spread, but also to win the game. Oh, and let's just say I also like the over on points...


FINAL SCORE: Philadelphia 38 - Dallas 31


BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS


This game, much like the Dallas - Philadelphia game, has a number of wrinkles to it. So let's break it down, position by position:

- QB: This is a no contest; Brady is still the winningest active QB in the NFL, he still has the aura around him, and this year, for the first time in quite some time, he has something to prove. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an exceptionally strong arm, but as the year went on Baltimore seemed to neuter him, holding him back more and more.

- RB: Another no contest, although not quite as definitively as it may look upon first glance. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain in the backfield, Baltimore is clearly has the superior stable of running backs. That said, New England always seems to find a way to mix and match its collection of backs for optimal production. Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk may not stand alone against Ray Rice, but they don't have to. Baltimore wins the nod here, but it's not as lopsided as some may lead you to believe.

- WR: This was a no contest in favor of the Pats until Wes Welker went down week 17 with a bunch of torn ligaments in his knee. Now, it's closer to a draw, but Moss is still better (when motivated) than the solid veteran Derrick Mason, and Julian Edelman has done a solid Welker impersonation a few times this year. This area gives a slight advantage to the Patriots.

- TE: Todd Heap is slightly better than Ben Watson. Thus, the Ravens are slightly better than the Pats.

- OL: It depends on if the Ravens left tackle is healthy and stays in the game. If he does, the advantage goes to a Baltimore team that has the luxury of playing Michael Oher on the right side. If he's not, it moves to a draw.

- Defenses: Neither defense is what it used to be, but both still have their moments. The Ravens have more big name players, but the Pats were sneaky good this year. In that regard, it's a draw.

- Special Teams: the Patriots have the much more experienced, much better kicker. 'Nuff said.

- Coaches: I still believe in Belichick.

So, it all adds up to a game that should be close, should be interesting, and could go either way.

FINAL SCORE: New England 27 - Baltimore 19


GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

Really, the most important factor of this game is that I picked against the Cardinals four times in last year's playoffs and only one the Super Bowl. This game should be a shoot out, with two high powered passing offenses. But, simply put, I think Green Bay is rolling, and is more than capable of putting up points to match Arizona, but they are also a better defensive team, and a better running team. If it's close Arizona has the more reliable kicker (although he is hurt), but I'm not sure it will be that close.

FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 34 - Arizona 24

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