Last week's results:
Houston 19 Cincinnati 13 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Green Bay 24 Minnesota 10 (I won straight up but lost against the spread... damn you Joe Webb!!!)
Baltimore 24 Indianapolis 9 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Seattle 24 Washington 14 (I won against the spread and straight up)
So: 3-1 against the spread, 4-0 straight up.
This week brings four matchups that can best be described as "tasty." Whereas last week we had to suffer through Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis and RGIII's knee, this week we get what should be four great games. However, the AFC lines are SUPER high leading to the terrible situation where I get tempted into hedging a pick by taking the points but picking that team to lose.
Baltimore (+9) over Denver
The rationale: See, that's exactly what happened! It's like I couldn't even avoid it. How can I take the Ravens, plus the points? Here's how: one TD, seven INTs. That's Peyton Manning's career numbers outdoors in the cold in the playoffs. He's had an otherworldly year, and it's not going to be windy or snowy in Denver, but it will be around 10 degrees and dropping throughout the game. However, I don't know that I believe Baltimore can WIN the game outright. They looked great last week, but were playing one of the worst playoff teams in the history of the NFL according to advanced metrics. This week, they go on the road and play the presumptive MVP. Besides, doesn't it feel like Peyton is SUPPOSED to host the AFC title game?
The pick: Denver 24 Baltimore 23 (FG as time expires)
Green Bay (+3) over San Francisco
The rationale: I think the Packers peaked way too early last year, and it bit them in the ass in the playoffs. This year? They were left for dead early, gradually got healthy on defense, and are peaking at the right time. Even scarier? Aaron Rodgers had an incredible year, only nobody noticed because of the years that Peyton, ADP, and RGIII had. Meanwhile, San Francisco's defense has looked positively human since the injury to Justin Smith. The game is in San Fran, where the weather is fine, but this Packers team can light it up. Under the gun, who are you going to pick: Colin Kapernick or Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, I thought so.
The pick: Green Bay 27 San Francisco 20
Seattle (+3) over Atlanta
The rationale: Atlanta looks very poor in all advanced metrics: they can't run, their D isn't good, and their special teams is average at best. Seattle, on the other hand, ranks in the top five in pretty much every advanced metric. The only thing that gives me pause is the injury to Clemons, the DE in Seattle, and how much that will hurt their ability to get up field on the pass rush. Against a pretty good Atlanta passing offense, that could be a huge issue. But Seattle just seems to have that feel this year. They can play you on your terms: make them play high octane, they score 50+; make them go the other way, and they grind out the win. Sans the Clemons injury, this is easy. Even after his knee went out, I still feel pretty good about this.
The pick: Seattle 34 Atlanta 24
New England (-10) over Houston
The rationale: Houston has not looked good since they played my Bears in a knock down, drag out brawl. New England, on the other hand, looks great. They seem to be getting healthy at just the right time, and I agree with Bill Simmons: the brain trust in New England has to know that they may not get another shot at the title. They had to have felt that way last year, and after blowing the Super Bowl to be here again, they have to be hyper focused. Besides, simply put, if Denver wins doesn't it feel like Brady v Manning HAS to happen this year? And don't you want it to? I do. Let's run it back one more time boys.
The pick: New England 35 Houston 17
Showing posts with label 2012 NFL Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 NFL Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Saturday, January 5, 2013
2013 NFL Playoff Picks - Wildcard Round
Well, with a month off, I'm back for the playoff picks. The drive for 11-0 is on again. Hopefully I make it past the first game. Again, I will pick against the spread, but indicate also who I think will win and by what score.
Houston (-4) over Cincinnati
The rationale: I know that Houston hit the last quarter of the year with some pretty significant struggles. I know that Cincinnati's defense was incredibly tough down the stretch. But here's the deal: the Texans might actually benefit from losing the bye week, as it will give them no time to think about the end of year struggles. After blowing the game to Indy last week they went right into game planning for Cincinnati. I have to believe that somewhere in there is the team that started 11-1, and showed the ability to score with the best and defend with the best. That, plus the fact that the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, make me lean towards Houston covering the spread.
The Pick: Houston 24 Cincinnati 17
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay
The rationale: Green Bay could be in trouble this game under the philosophy that they let a team in the playoffs they had a chance to eliminate last week. In two games against the Pack this year Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards. If he has that kind of production Saturday night the Pack may be in trouble. I can't overstate how much I'll be rooting for the the ViQueens in this game, and I think they'll give a good game. That said, in football you have to give the advantage to the team with the elite quarterback. And, in this game, the elite QB is not Mr. Samantha Steele.
The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 23
Baltimore (-7) over Indianapolis
The rationale: the Colts periphery numbers spell this out. The Colts scored 30 fewer points than their opponents this year, yet won 11 of 16 games. The Colts went 9-1 in games decided by less than a TD, a stat which always regresses back to the mean. The Colts are young, inexperienced, and the "feel good story." The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years. Perhaps Indy keeps it close, but it would be a major upset if the Ravens did not advance.
The Pick: Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 17
Seattle (-3) over Washington
The rationale: in a year like this, it seems like Seattle has something going for it at the right time. Russell Wilson is the lesser known of three rookie QBs in the playoffs, but if things go the way I think they will he will be the last one standing after Sunday.
The Pick: Seattle 27 Washington 20
Houston (-4) over Cincinnati
The rationale: I know that Houston hit the last quarter of the year with some pretty significant struggles. I know that Cincinnati's defense was incredibly tough down the stretch. But here's the deal: the Texans might actually benefit from losing the bye week, as it will give them no time to think about the end of year struggles. After blowing the game to Indy last week they went right into game planning for Cincinnati. I have to believe that somewhere in there is the team that started 11-1, and showed the ability to score with the best and defend with the best. That, plus the fact that the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, make me lean towards Houston covering the spread.
The Pick: Houston 24 Cincinnati 17
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay
The rationale: Green Bay could be in trouble this game under the philosophy that they let a team in the playoffs they had a chance to eliminate last week. In two games against the Pack this year Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards. If he has that kind of production Saturday night the Pack may be in trouble. I can't overstate how much I'll be rooting for the the ViQueens in this game, and I think they'll give a good game. That said, in football you have to give the advantage to the team with the elite quarterback. And, in this game, the elite QB is not Mr. Samantha Steele.
The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 23
Baltimore (-7) over Indianapolis
The rationale: the Colts periphery numbers spell this out. The Colts scored 30 fewer points than their opponents this year, yet won 11 of 16 games. The Colts went 9-1 in games decided by less than a TD, a stat which always regresses back to the mean. The Colts are young, inexperienced, and the "feel good story." The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years. Perhaps Indy keeps it close, but it would be a major upset if the Ravens did not advance.
The Pick: Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 17
Seattle (-3) over Washington
The rationale: in a year like this, it seems like Seattle has something going for it at the right time. Russell Wilson is the lesser known of three rookie QBs in the playoffs, but if things go the way I think they will he will be the last one standing after Sunday.
The Pick: Seattle 27 Washington 20
Sunday, December 2, 2012
NFL WEEK PICKS - WEEK 13
My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone involved with the situation in Kansas City. Particularly, due to my line of work, my thoughts go out to the coach, GM and other Chiefs staff who witnessed Javon take his own life. Cris Carter just made a good point about NFL personnel needing to become even better crisis managers. As someone who has gone through a number of trainings on suicide prevention and crisis management, I know that it is important, but can be easier said than done.
Last week against the spread: 6-10
Last week straight up: 10-6
Season against the spread: 99-73-4
Season straight up: 122-53-1
So last week was a rough week for the picks. Even a late rally didn't help the series of bad picks that Sunday morning brought. We'll see if we can get back on the horse.
Thursday Night
Atlanta (+3.5) over New Orleans
Sunday Early
Buffalo (-6) over Jacksonville
Chicago (-3) over Seattle
Indianapolis (+7) over Detroit
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay - Green Bay straight up
Houston (-7) over Tennessee
Kansas City (+5) over Carolina
San Francisco (-8) over St. Louis
New England (-8) over Miami
NY Jets (-6) over Arizona
Sunday Late
Tampa (+10) over Denver - Denver straight up
Oakland (+1) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over San Diego
Pittsburgh (+10) over Baltimore - Baltimore straight up
Sunday Night
Philadelphia (+11) over Dallas - Dallas straight up
Monday Night
NY Giants (-3) over Washington
Last week against the spread: 6-10
Last week straight up: 10-6
Season against the spread: 99-73-4
Season straight up: 122-53-1
So last week was a rough week for the picks. Even a late rally didn't help the series of bad picks that Sunday morning brought. We'll see if we can get back on the horse.
Thursday Night
Atlanta (+3.5) over New Orleans
Sunday Early
Buffalo (-6) over Jacksonville
Chicago (-3) over Seattle
Indianapolis (+7) over Detroit
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay - Green Bay straight up
Houston (-7) over Tennessee
Kansas City (+5) over Carolina
San Francisco (-8) over St. Louis
New England (-8) over Miami
NY Jets (-6) over Arizona
Sunday Late
Tampa (+10) over Denver - Denver straight up
Oakland (+1) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over San Diego
Pittsburgh (+10) over Baltimore - Baltimore straight up
Sunday Night
Philadelphia (+11) over Dallas - Dallas straight up
Monday Night
NY Giants (-3) over Washington
Thursday, November 22, 2012
NFL Week Picks - Week 12 - Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up: 12-2
Season against the spread: 93-63-4
Season straight up: 112-47-1
Things I'm Thankful For: My fiance, my family, and her family who have welcomed me with such open arms. My job, which challenges me, pushes me to the limit daily, but never ceases to fulfill me. The grace of God, which allows a sinner such as myself to feel the love of God. And those things, not in that order. In the sports world, I'm thankful for:
- a return to relevance from the IU Basketball Team (Go Hoosiers!)
- The 7-1 start by the Bears, at least allowing me to enjoy part of a football season with optimism
- Management at Wrigley who seem competent and driven to build a winner the right way
- A Bulls team that won't win it all, but gives its all every night.
- Having had the chance to watch MJ, the undisputed Greatest Of All Time across all sports.
I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with these picks. This may be the week. But somehow, some way I'm plugging along with an insanely great picks year. I suppose that is a small consolation prize for my awful fantasy football season.
On to the picks:
Thursday (Turkey Day) Games - The one Thursday of the year when NFL on Thursday DOES NOT suck:
Houston (-4) over Detroit - This year has been a major regression to the mean for the Lions. When they get a sane coach they have the talent to be tough.
Dallas (-3) over Washington - I'm with Bill Simmons: this is the game that Dallas wins, making their fans believe, before blowing it a few weeks down the road.
New England (-7) over NY Jets - I'm surprised there isn't more of a rumbling for Rex Ryan's job after this underwhelming year. Missing Gronk hurts, but I think that New England can cover here. I'd prefer the line be -6 or -5.5 however.
Sunday Early Games:
Bears (PK) over Minnesota - My how the might have fallen. The Bears are suddenly EVEN against the Vikes at home? That's what happens when you go out and get punched in the face and don't fight back, which is what happened on Monday night. It's been a long time since I turned a Bears game off as quickly as I did Monday. In fact, it may have never happened in my life. Monday there was a team that wanted to impose its' will on their opponent, and the Bears rolled over and died. If they lose this game the rest of the year becomes a defacto "Lovie's Last Stand."
Raiders (+10) over Cincinnati - I'll take Cincinnati straight up, but ten points is a lot to lay for a Raiders team that can score, even if it cannot win.
Pittsburgh (-1) over Cleveland - They only lost to Baltimore by three, and now they are barely a favorite against Cleveland? Gotta believe they still have enough D to win the game...
Indianapolis (-3) over Buffalo - Big game for the Bills: if they win they have a chance to sneak back into the playoff discussion. But Indy has been tough at home (4-1) and it feels like an "Andrew Luck leads the Colts to the playoffs" headline is more likely.
Denver (-11) over Kansas City - All my Manning hatred aside, right now he has to be the MVP. It is incredible what he's done coming back from the injury, surgeries, and a full year off. And playing outdoors for the first time. Also, it's easier not to hate him when he's not in Indy. Beside, him leaving cut the number of "Colts fans" by 50%. Thanks Peyton: I'm thankful for you taking your talents to the Rocky Mountains.
Seattle (-3) over Miami - I think Miami's goose may be cooked. Seattle is bad on the road, but Miami has looked a bit lost these last few weeks.
Atlanta (-2) over Tampa Bay - And now the betting has over adjusted, giving a 9-1 Falcons team not enough credit after a few weeks of giving them too much credit. I could see Tampa winning this game, but that line is too tasty.
Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville - I find myself again taking way too many favorites for my liking, but not really seeing the favorites as giving too much. I'm glad Chris Johnson could resurrect his season in time for my to trade him and get draft picks for next year. Yes, my friends, I've become Jerry Reinsdorf and waived the white flag.
Sunday Late Games:
Baltimore (-1) over San Diego - That doesn't feel right somehow...
EDIT: San Diego (+1) over Baltimore - I'll role with Norv, who has to be thankful that his owner and GM died a few years ago, and that he's been able to get away with propping them up Weekend at Bernie's style. After all, isn't that a more plausible explanation that believing that Chargers management actually thought it was a good idea to keep Norv as the head coach?
New Orleans (+1) over San Francisco - Yes, I'm sticking with this one. I think the 49ers played out of their mind last week, I KNOW that Harbaugh (great coach, sure) is creating a QB controversy by letting Kapernick get the first team reps, and I suspect that a win here puts the Saints back in the playoff discussion. Who Dat?
St. Louis (+1) over Arizona - Add Ken Wisenhunt to the list of probable fires after the year. Of course, Jeff Fisher's decision to go for two last week when it made no sense doesn't exactly give me faith in him. St. Louis seems to be more stable on offense right now, and they just played San Fran to a tie. Interesting that all three late games are one point spreads... you baited me into three straight dogs Vegas. Well done.
Sunday Night Game:
NY Giants (-3) over Green Bay - for the Bear's sake I hope this is right. The Giants have been abysmal lately, but this feels like a game they'd turn it on and win.
Monday Night Game:
Carolina (-1) over Philadelphia - I just think that the Eagles have completely quit on Andy Reid. And I will not be watching this game.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!
Last week straight up: 12-2
Season against the spread: 93-63-4
Season straight up: 112-47-1
Things I'm Thankful For: My fiance, my family, and her family who have welcomed me with such open arms. My job, which challenges me, pushes me to the limit daily, but never ceases to fulfill me. The grace of God, which allows a sinner such as myself to feel the love of God. And those things, not in that order. In the sports world, I'm thankful for:
- a return to relevance from the IU Basketball Team (Go Hoosiers!)
- The 7-1 start by the Bears, at least allowing me to enjoy part of a football season with optimism
- Management at Wrigley who seem competent and driven to build a winner the right way
- A Bulls team that won't win it all, but gives its all every night.
- Having had the chance to watch MJ, the undisputed Greatest Of All Time across all sports.
I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with these picks. This may be the week. But somehow, some way I'm plugging along with an insanely great picks year. I suppose that is a small consolation prize for my awful fantasy football season.
On to the picks:
Thursday (Turkey Day) Games - The one Thursday of the year when NFL on Thursday DOES NOT suck:
Houston (-4) over Detroit - This year has been a major regression to the mean for the Lions. When they get a sane coach they have the talent to be tough.
Dallas (-3) over Washington - I'm with Bill Simmons: this is the game that Dallas wins, making their fans believe, before blowing it a few weeks down the road.
New England (-7) over NY Jets - I'm surprised there isn't more of a rumbling for Rex Ryan's job after this underwhelming year. Missing Gronk hurts, but I think that New England can cover here. I'd prefer the line be -6 or -5.5 however.
Sunday Early Games:
Bears (PK) over Minnesota - My how the might have fallen. The Bears are suddenly EVEN against the Vikes at home? That's what happens when you go out and get punched in the face and don't fight back, which is what happened on Monday night. It's been a long time since I turned a Bears game off as quickly as I did Monday. In fact, it may have never happened in my life. Monday there was a team that wanted to impose its' will on their opponent, and the Bears rolled over and died. If they lose this game the rest of the year becomes a defacto "Lovie's Last Stand."
Raiders (+10) over Cincinnati - I'll take Cincinnati straight up, but ten points is a lot to lay for a Raiders team that can score, even if it cannot win.
Pittsburgh (-1) over Cleveland - They only lost to Baltimore by three, and now they are barely a favorite against Cleveland? Gotta believe they still have enough D to win the game...
Indianapolis (-3) over Buffalo - Big game for the Bills: if they win they have a chance to sneak back into the playoff discussion. But Indy has been tough at home (4-1) and it feels like an "Andrew Luck leads the Colts to the playoffs" headline is more likely.
Denver (-11) over Kansas City - All my Manning hatred aside, right now he has to be the MVP. It is incredible what he's done coming back from the injury, surgeries, and a full year off. And playing outdoors for the first time. Also, it's easier not to hate him when he's not in Indy. Beside, him leaving cut the number of "Colts fans" by 50%. Thanks Peyton: I'm thankful for you taking your talents to the Rocky Mountains.
Seattle (-3) over Miami - I think Miami's goose may be cooked. Seattle is bad on the road, but Miami has looked a bit lost these last few weeks.
Atlanta (-2) over Tampa Bay - And now the betting has over adjusted, giving a 9-1 Falcons team not enough credit after a few weeks of giving them too much credit. I could see Tampa winning this game, but that line is too tasty.
Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville - I find myself again taking way too many favorites for my liking, but not really seeing the favorites as giving too much. I'm glad Chris Johnson could resurrect his season in time for my to trade him and get draft picks for next year. Yes, my friends, I've become Jerry Reinsdorf and waived the white flag.
Sunday Late Games:
Baltimore (-1) over San Diego - That doesn't feel right somehow...
EDIT: San Diego (+1) over Baltimore - I'll role with Norv, who has to be thankful that his owner and GM died a few years ago, and that he's been able to get away with propping them up Weekend at Bernie's style. After all, isn't that a more plausible explanation that believing that Chargers management actually thought it was a good idea to keep Norv as the head coach?
New Orleans (+1) over San Francisco - Yes, I'm sticking with this one. I think the 49ers played out of their mind last week, I KNOW that Harbaugh (great coach, sure) is creating a QB controversy by letting Kapernick get the first team reps, and I suspect that a win here puts the Saints back in the playoff discussion. Who Dat?
St. Louis (+1) over Arizona - Add Ken Wisenhunt to the list of probable fires after the year. Of course, Jeff Fisher's decision to go for two last week when it made no sense doesn't exactly give me faith in him. St. Louis seems to be more stable on offense right now, and they just played San Fran to a tie. Interesting that all three late games are one point spreads... you baited me into three straight dogs Vegas. Well done.
Sunday Night Game:
NY Giants (-3) over Green Bay - for the Bear's sake I hope this is right. The Giants have been abysmal lately, but this feels like a game they'd turn it on and win.
Monday Night Game:
Carolina (-1) over Philadelphia - I just think that the Eagles have completely quit on Andy Reid. And I will not be watching this game.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!
Sunday, November 18, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 11
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 11-2-1
Season against the spread: 84-59-3
Season straight up: 100-45-1
Thursday night:
Buffalo (-1.5) over Miami - Miami's overrated right now
Sunday early:
Atlanta (-10) over Arizona - I picked the first loss right; I sense a bounce back
Dallas (-8) over Cleveland - This line is too high, but I can't take Cleveland ...
Green Bay (-3) over Detroit - I think Green Bay may win big here...
Cincinnati (-3) over Kansas City - The Bengals are a good bad team, the Chiefs a bad bad team.
NY Jets (+4) over St. Louis - if the Jets lose this one talk starts of Rex Ryan's job.
Washington (-4) over Philadelphia - only question left in Philly is if Andy Reid will survive the year
Tampa Bay (+1) over Carolina - Bucs are sneaky good right now
Houston (-16) over Jacksonville - I believe in the Texans...
Sunday late:
New Orleans (-5) over Oakland - back on the Saints bandwagon; playoffs aren't likely, but they have righted the ship
San Diego (+9) over Denver - Denver to win straight up, but the Norv's have to keep it close, right?
New England (-10) over Indianapolis - Luck isn't Manning yet, and the Colts pass D sucks...
Sunday night:
Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore - Even without Big Ben the Steelers look like they have the D to keep it close
Monday night:
Chicago (+7) over San Francisco - that hit on Cutler was cheap, and the officials helped blow that game. That said, please know that the incompetent offense is YET AGAIN a reason why Lovie needs to be let go. Two concussed QBs mean this line shouldn't be this big.
Last week straight up: 11-2-1
Season against the spread: 84-59-3
Season straight up: 100-45-1
Thursday night:
Buffalo (-1.5) over Miami - Miami's overrated right now
Sunday early:
Atlanta (-10) over Arizona - I picked the first loss right; I sense a bounce back
Dallas (-8) over Cleveland - This line is too high, but I can't take Cleveland ...
Green Bay (-3) over Detroit - I think Green Bay may win big here...
Cincinnati (-3) over Kansas City - The Bengals are a good bad team, the Chiefs a bad bad team.
NY Jets (+4) over St. Louis - if the Jets lose this one talk starts of Rex Ryan's job.
Washington (-4) over Philadelphia - only question left in Philly is if Andy Reid will survive the year
Tampa Bay (+1) over Carolina - Bucs are sneaky good right now
Houston (-16) over Jacksonville - I believe in the Texans...
Sunday late:
New Orleans (-5) over Oakland - back on the Saints bandwagon; playoffs aren't likely, but they have righted the ship
San Diego (+9) over Denver - Denver to win straight up, but the Norv's have to keep it close, right?
New England (-10) over Indianapolis - Luck isn't Manning yet, and the Colts pass D sucks...
Sunday night:
Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore - Even without Big Ben the Steelers look like they have the D to keep it close
Monday night:
Chicago (+7) over San Francisco - that hit on Cutler was cheap, and the officials helped blow that game. That said, please know that the incompetent offense is YET AGAIN a reason why Lovie needs to be let go. Two concussed QBs mean this line shouldn't be this big.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 10
Due to a nasty cold that's kept me on my back for four days, only quick picks this week. The lines seemed much more difficult to pick this week, so perhaps Vegas is adjusting. Either way, I wouldn't take these to the bank with my cold holding me back.
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 75-54-3
Season straight up: 89-43
Thursday Night:
Colts (-3.5) over Jags
Sunday Early:
Giants (-4) over Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6) over Miami
Minnesota (+3) over Detroit
New England (-13) over Buffalo
New Orleans (+1) over Atlanta
Tampa (-3) over San Diego
Denver (-4) over Carolina
Baltimore (-9) over Oakland
Sunday Late:
Seattle (-6) over NY Jets
Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-13) over St. Louis
Sunday Night:
Chicago (-1) over Houston
Monday Night:
Pittsburgh (-13) over Kansas City
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 75-54-3
Season straight up: 89-43
Thursday Night:
Colts (-3.5) over Jags
Sunday Early:
Giants (-4) over Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6) over Miami
Minnesota (+3) over Detroit
New England (-13) over Buffalo
New Orleans (+1) over Atlanta
Tampa (-3) over San Diego
Denver (-4) over Carolina
Baltimore (-9) over Oakland
Sunday Late:
Seattle (-6) over NY Jets
Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-13) over St. Louis
Sunday Night:
Chicago (-1) over Houston
Monday Night:
Pittsburgh (-13) over Kansas City
Saturday, November 3, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 9 PLUS The Presidential Election
The NFL season hits the midway point, and usually I'd do a retrospective on the preseason picks, tout what I was right on, explain away what I was not so right on, but this year we have an election next Tuesday. And, I think I speak for everyone when I say: THANK GOD the endless barrage of campaign commercials, emails and news releases is about to be over. Republican, Democrat, or anywhere in between I don't know how anyone can feel anything but disgusted with this process after this year.
That said, this week I'll strive to intertwine my football picks with some insight about the presidential election, and then a straightforward pick. First, let's look at how I'm doing through 8 weeks with my picks:
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 13-1
Season against the spread: 66-49-3
Season straight up: 79-39
In short, I continue to have my best year both against the spread and straight up. You'd expect to do better straight up than against the spread, if only because Vegas would be losing big if it was as easy (or easier) to pick winners against the spread as straight up. That said, the lines have seemed much easier to pick this year than in years past. On to this week's picks:
Thursday Night Game:
Chiefs (+7.5) over San Diego (Chargers straight up)
Okay, we already know that I split on this one because the game happened. Have I mentioned that Thursday night football absolutely, positively sucks yet? Seriously, can we get rid of the NFL "braintrust" who thought this was a good idea yet? My logic behind the (failed) decision to take KC plus the points? As bad as KC is, Norv Turner has a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. He is an awful coach, and I don't even feel a little bit bad about losing the pick against the spread. I can't ever take the Norv Turners as more than a TD favorite.
As far as the Presidential Election goes, Missouri, the "Bell-weather" state, is no longer a swing state. I was there earlier this year, and let me tell you, that state is as reliably Republican as California is Democrat. It's so conservative that there is an outside chance that Akin wins the Senate election after having an honest conversation about how he believes a woman's body can reject semen when being raped if it's "true rape." Yeah, that happened this year, and believe it or not, thanks to a moron hailing from my state it wasn't even the most ridiculous rape comment of the election by a Republican Candidate.
Sunday Early Games
Denver (-4) over Cincinnati
Now here's two states that are actual swing states. Before I discuss Colorado and Ohio, let's look at these teams. On the one hand we have a Bengals team that has been hot then cold. They have appeared easy to score on, but intermittently able to score with the best of them. On the other side of the field we have a Broncos team that has lost to the Falcons, the Texans and the Patriots. You know, three of the best teams in the NFL (we think).
As for the states of Colorado and Ohio, both states are heavily in play right now. Romney and Obama are both directing major resources to both states, and Ohio is likely to be the state that keeps us up the longest waiting for the votes to trickle in. If Romney doesn't take Colorado Obama will be on his way to a big victory. The odds on pick here is that Romney takes Colorado by a slim margin, but that Obama takes Ohio by 2-3%. If Obama does take Ohio the road becomes very difficult for Romney, and as such you'll see major hail mary attempts in that state (more on that to come)
Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland
I have a hunch that this will be a bounce back game for the beat up Ravens, although it should be mentioned that Weeden has been better than expected. Continuing with Ohio, I find it interesting that Romney is running ads about Chrysler taking jobs overseas, which Chrysler execs are quick to discount. That's the type of Hail Mary ads you should be happy to be avoiding if you live in a non-swing state that's being (comparatively) ignored. Don't get me wrong, we are getting plenty of ads here in Hoosier land, but nothing compared with what's blasting Ohio.
Green Bay (-10) over Arizona
Wisconsin is supposedly a swing state. It's not. The dirty secret is that Paul Ryan isn't nearly as popular across the state as Romney would like you to believe. He's a Congressman; therefore, he needs to be popular in a small part of the state. He's not a Senator or Governor. Expect Obama to take Wisconsin by 4-5% and Romney to take Arizona going away. Oh, the game? I see a fifth straight loss for the Cardinals, and the Pack continuing to come on.
Chicago (-3.5) over Tennessee
I can't believe this spread is this low. But, again, after doing everything they could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last week and falling just short, the Bears may be who we have known them to be through the Lovie era: a maddeningly inconsistent team on offense buttressed by a all world defense and special teams. I hope that Cutler isn't hurt, but I suspect he is. Winning this game is essential given the remaining 8 games on the schedule, none of which could be considered a gimmy. As for the election, Illinois is solid blue, Tennessee solid red.
Indianapolis (+3) over Miami
The winner of this game is solidly in the drivers seat for a playoff appearance. While Miami has the far superior defense, I'll take Luck at home getting points. As for the election, the state of Indiana inexplicably went blue in 2008, which was pretty much the only shock of the night for me. Let's just say that I won't be shocked again: the state is back to being it's crazy conservative self. When you look at the stretch of blue you'll see on election night from the north east, through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, Indiana will stand out.
Florida? The bane of the 2000 election will be less exciting this time. Due to a continued jobs and housing crisis you can put this state in Romney's ledger pretty easy. If Florida doesn't swing to Romney by 4-5% you can expect a long night for him. If, however, Florida does go to the GOP candidate quickly and decisively it might be an indicator that state polls have been off for the last few months. Florida should go to Romney, but how easily and quickly it does will go a long way to telling us what kind of night it will be.
Washington (-3) over Carolina
Remember last year when Cam Newton was the next big thing? Now the only reason you hear about him in the news is to debate if it's racist to compare him to Vince Young. Reality is RGIII is the hot new thing, and I think Washington takes this game going away. Obama's biggest win of the night will almost certainly be in the District of Columbia. North Carolina, much like Indiana, will go back to the right after a brief flirtation with the left in the last election.
Detroit (-5) over Jacksonville
This game should be an easy win for Detroit, who needs to find some offensive rhythm and maintain it for a few weeks. We've already covered Florida in the election, so a quick look at Michigan. Will the prodigal son, Romney, come back to take the state? In a word, no.
Houston (-10) over Buffalo
I don't like any lines that are in the double digits this year, but I also think Houston is good and Buffalo is not. I can only hope for a huge game from CJ Spiller for my fantasy team. In the election TX is dead red and NY all blue, so I'll simply say that all those on the East coast are in my prayers.
Sunday Late Games
Oakland (-1) over Tampa
Florida, as we've covered, is for Romney. For the purposes of this game, consider only that the loss of Nicks at guard for the Bucs will hurt the running game quite a bit. This line seems too low, so I'll go with the home team. I do feel like I'm taking too many favorites.
Minnesota (+4) over Seattle
Seattle is 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road. This game is in Seattle. I'll take the Vikings to cover and a final score of Seattle 27 Minnesota 24. As for the election, both these states will go blue, in spite of Romney's campaign suddenly talking about Minnesota being in play.
Pittsburgh (+3) over NY Giants
I'd feel better about this if it wasn't for the emotion of the Giants playing in the Meadowlands. But I think that this is the game where Pittsburgh either announces itself as the contender they've been for years, or starts to quietly fade away. Big Ben is playing great and they need a signature win. As mentioned before, PA will go blue, don't listen to what Romney/Ryan are saying.
Sunday Night Game
Atlanta (+4) over Dallas
As I speak, Notre Dame is trying an improbable comeback. For this game, let me say that Atlanta will lose, and probably more than once. Picking the game they'll drop is the big challenge. This spread reflects too much money on Dallas. I like Atlanta to cover going away. Just like Romney wins going away in Georgia and Dallas.
Monday Night Game
Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans
As much as I hate to admit it, this is the game Philly needs and New Orleans is cursed as can be this year. The penultimate game of the Michael Vick era, and it happens in New Orleans on the Monday night after Hurricane Sandy decimates the East coast. I like the points, and this gives me four dogs in a row to end. Also, Louisiana goes to Romney easy.
The Presidential Election
Obama 281 to Romney 257
That's my prediction for the final score. How did I get there? Well, here's how the election will break down friends:
Alabama - Romney - 9
Alaska - Romney - 3
Arizona - Romney - 11
Arkansas - Romney - 6
California - Obama - 55
Colorado - Romney - 9
Connecticut - Obama - 7
Delaware - Obama - 3
D.C. - Obama - 3
Florida - Romney - 29
Georgia - Romney - 16
Hawaii - Obama - 4
Idaho - Romney - 4
Illinois - Obama - 20
Indiana - Romney - 11
Iowa - Obama - 6
Kansas - Romney - 6
Kentucky - Romney - 8
Louisiana - Romney - 8
Maine - Obama - 4
Maryland - Obama - 10
Massachusetts - Obama - 11
Michigan - Obama - 16
Minnesota - Obama - 10
Mississippi - Romney - 6
Missouri - Romney - 10
Montana - Romney - 3
Nebraska - Romney - 5
Nevada - Obama - 6
New Hampshire - Obama - 4
New Jersey - Obama - 14
New Mexico - Obama - 5
New York - Obama - 29
North Carolina - Romney - 15
North Dakota - Romney - 3
Ohio - Obama - 18
Oklahoma - Romney - 7
Oregon - Obama - 7
Pennsylvania - Obama - 20
Rhode Island - Obama - 4
South Carolina - Romney - 9
South Dakota - Romney - 3
Tennessee - Romney -11
Texas - Romney - 38
Utah - Romney - 6
Vermont - Obama - 3
Virginia - Romney - 13
Washington - Obama - 12
West Virginia - Romney - 5
Wisconsin - Obama - 10
Wyoming - Romney - 3
Even if Romney takes Florida, Colorado and Virginia Obama will win the election. I want to stress that I think Florida will go to Romney, but Colorado and Virginia are both toss ups in the definition of the word. Other "swing states" are much more leaning towards Obama. In other words, Obama is the odds on favorites. Enjoy your election drinking games. I'll break it down the night of if I'm so inspired. If not, at least when I make my picks next week there will be no more adds to annoy us.
That said, this week I'll strive to intertwine my football picks with some insight about the presidential election, and then a straightforward pick. First, let's look at how I'm doing through 8 weeks with my picks:
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 13-1
Season against the spread: 66-49-3
Season straight up: 79-39
In short, I continue to have my best year both against the spread and straight up. You'd expect to do better straight up than against the spread, if only because Vegas would be losing big if it was as easy (or easier) to pick winners against the spread as straight up. That said, the lines have seemed much easier to pick this year than in years past. On to this week's picks:
Thursday Night Game:
Chiefs (+7.5) over San Diego (Chargers straight up)
Okay, we already know that I split on this one because the game happened. Have I mentioned that Thursday night football absolutely, positively sucks yet? Seriously, can we get rid of the NFL "braintrust" who thought this was a good idea yet? My logic behind the (failed) decision to take KC plus the points? As bad as KC is, Norv Turner has a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. He is an awful coach, and I don't even feel a little bit bad about losing the pick against the spread. I can't ever take the Norv Turners as more than a TD favorite.
As far as the Presidential Election goes, Missouri, the "Bell-weather" state, is no longer a swing state. I was there earlier this year, and let me tell you, that state is as reliably Republican as California is Democrat. It's so conservative that there is an outside chance that Akin wins the Senate election after having an honest conversation about how he believes a woman's body can reject semen when being raped if it's "true rape." Yeah, that happened this year, and believe it or not, thanks to a moron hailing from my state it wasn't even the most ridiculous rape comment of the election by a Republican Candidate.
Sunday Early Games
Denver (-4) over Cincinnati
Now here's two states that are actual swing states. Before I discuss Colorado and Ohio, let's look at these teams. On the one hand we have a Bengals team that has been hot then cold. They have appeared easy to score on, but intermittently able to score with the best of them. On the other side of the field we have a Broncos team that has lost to the Falcons, the Texans and the Patriots. You know, three of the best teams in the NFL (we think).
As for the states of Colorado and Ohio, both states are heavily in play right now. Romney and Obama are both directing major resources to both states, and Ohio is likely to be the state that keeps us up the longest waiting for the votes to trickle in. If Romney doesn't take Colorado Obama will be on his way to a big victory. The odds on pick here is that Romney takes Colorado by a slim margin, but that Obama takes Ohio by 2-3%. If Obama does take Ohio the road becomes very difficult for Romney, and as such you'll see major hail mary attempts in that state (more on that to come)
Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland
I have a hunch that this will be a bounce back game for the beat up Ravens, although it should be mentioned that Weeden has been better than expected. Continuing with Ohio, I find it interesting that Romney is running ads about Chrysler taking jobs overseas, which Chrysler execs are quick to discount. That's the type of Hail Mary ads you should be happy to be avoiding if you live in a non-swing state that's being (comparatively) ignored. Don't get me wrong, we are getting plenty of ads here in Hoosier land, but nothing compared with what's blasting Ohio.
Green Bay (-10) over Arizona
Wisconsin is supposedly a swing state. It's not. The dirty secret is that Paul Ryan isn't nearly as popular across the state as Romney would like you to believe. He's a Congressman; therefore, he needs to be popular in a small part of the state. He's not a Senator or Governor. Expect Obama to take Wisconsin by 4-5% and Romney to take Arizona going away. Oh, the game? I see a fifth straight loss for the Cardinals, and the Pack continuing to come on.
Chicago (-3.5) over Tennessee
I can't believe this spread is this low. But, again, after doing everything they could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last week and falling just short, the Bears may be who we have known them to be through the Lovie era: a maddeningly inconsistent team on offense buttressed by a all world defense and special teams. I hope that Cutler isn't hurt, but I suspect he is. Winning this game is essential given the remaining 8 games on the schedule, none of which could be considered a gimmy. As for the election, Illinois is solid blue, Tennessee solid red.
Indianapolis (+3) over Miami
The winner of this game is solidly in the drivers seat for a playoff appearance. While Miami has the far superior defense, I'll take Luck at home getting points. As for the election, the state of Indiana inexplicably went blue in 2008, which was pretty much the only shock of the night for me. Let's just say that I won't be shocked again: the state is back to being it's crazy conservative self. When you look at the stretch of blue you'll see on election night from the north east, through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, Indiana will stand out.
Florida? The bane of the 2000 election will be less exciting this time. Due to a continued jobs and housing crisis you can put this state in Romney's ledger pretty easy. If Florida doesn't swing to Romney by 4-5% you can expect a long night for him. If, however, Florida does go to the GOP candidate quickly and decisively it might be an indicator that state polls have been off for the last few months. Florida should go to Romney, but how easily and quickly it does will go a long way to telling us what kind of night it will be.
Washington (-3) over Carolina
Remember last year when Cam Newton was the next big thing? Now the only reason you hear about him in the news is to debate if it's racist to compare him to Vince Young. Reality is RGIII is the hot new thing, and I think Washington takes this game going away. Obama's biggest win of the night will almost certainly be in the District of Columbia. North Carolina, much like Indiana, will go back to the right after a brief flirtation with the left in the last election.
Detroit (-5) over Jacksonville
This game should be an easy win for Detroit, who needs to find some offensive rhythm and maintain it for a few weeks. We've already covered Florida in the election, so a quick look at Michigan. Will the prodigal son, Romney, come back to take the state? In a word, no.
Houston (-10) over Buffalo
I don't like any lines that are in the double digits this year, but I also think Houston is good and Buffalo is not. I can only hope for a huge game from CJ Spiller for my fantasy team. In the election TX is dead red and NY all blue, so I'll simply say that all those on the East coast are in my prayers.
Sunday Late Games
Oakland (-1) over Tampa
Florida, as we've covered, is for Romney. For the purposes of this game, consider only that the loss of Nicks at guard for the Bucs will hurt the running game quite a bit. This line seems too low, so I'll go with the home team. I do feel like I'm taking too many favorites.
Minnesota (+4) over Seattle
Seattle is 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road. This game is in Seattle. I'll take the Vikings to cover and a final score of Seattle 27 Minnesota 24. As for the election, both these states will go blue, in spite of Romney's campaign suddenly talking about Minnesota being in play.
Pittsburgh (+3) over NY Giants
I'd feel better about this if it wasn't for the emotion of the Giants playing in the Meadowlands. But I think that this is the game where Pittsburgh either announces itself as the contender they've been for years, or starts to quietly fade away. Big Ben is playing great and they need a signature win. As mentioned before, PA will go blue, don't listen to what Romney/Ryan are saying.
Sunday Night Game
Atlanta (+4) over Dallas
As I speak, Notre Dame is trying an improbable comeback. For this game, let me say that Atlanta will lose, and probably more than once. Picking the game they'll drop is the big challenge. This spread reflects too much money on Dallas. I like Atlanta to cover going away. Just like Romney wins going away in Georgia and Dallas.
Monday Night Game
Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans
As much as I hate to admit it, this is the game Philly needs and New Orleans is cursed as can be this year. The penultimate game of the Michael Vick era, and it happens in New Orleans on the Monday night after Hurricane Sandy decimates the East coast. I like the points, and this gives me four dogs in a row to end. Also, Louisiana goes to Romney easy.
The Presidential Election
Obama 281 to Romney 257
That's my prediction for the final score. How did I get there? Well, here's how the election will break down friends:
Alabama - Romney - 9
Alaska - Romney - 3
Arizona - Romney - 11
Arkansas - Romney - 6
California - Obama - 55
Colorado - Romney - 9
Connecticut - Obama - 7
Delaware - Obama - 3
D.C. - Obama - 3
Florida - Romney - 29
Georgia - Romney - 16
Hawaii - Obama - 4
Idaho - Romney - 4
Illinois - Obama - 20
Indiana - Romney - 11
Iowa - Obama - 6
Kansas - Romney - 6
Kentucky - Romney - 8
Louisiana - Romney - 8
Maine - Obama - 4
Maryland - Obama - 10
Massachusetts - Obama - 11
Michigan - Obama - 16
Minnesota - Obama - 10
Mississippi - Romney - 6
Missouri - Romney - 10
Montana - Romney - 3
Nebraska - Romney - 5
Nevada - Obama - 6
New Hampshire - Obama - 4
New Jersey - Obama - 14
New Mexico - Obama - 5
New York - Obama - 29
North Carolina - Romney - 15
North Dakota - Romney - 3
Ohio - Obama - 18
Oklahoma - Romney - 7
Oregon - Obama - 7
Pennsylvania - Obama - 20
Rhode Island - Obama - 4
South Carolina - Romney - 9
South Dakota - Romney - 3
Tennessee - Romney -11
Texas - Romney - 38
Utah - Romney - 6
Vermont - Obama - 3
Virginia - Romney - 13
Washington - Obama - 12
West Virginia - Romney - 5
Wisconsin - Obama - 10
Wyoming - Romney - 3
Even if Romney takes Florida, Colorado and Virginia Obama will win the election. I want to stress that I think Florida will go to Romney, but Colorado and Virginia are both toss ups in the definition of the word. Other "swing states" are much more leaning towards Obama. In other words, Obama is the odds on favorites. Enjoy your election drinking games. I'll break it down the night of if I'm so inspired. If not, at least when I make my picks next week there will be no more adds to annoy us.
Friday, October 26, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 8
Again, due to time, quick picks:
Thursday Night:
Tampa (+5) over Minnesota
Sunday Early:
Chicago (-9) over Carolina
San Diego (-3) over Cleveland
Detroit (-1) over Seattle
Green Bay (-15) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (+4) over Tennessee
St. Louis (+7) over New England (New England straight up)
Miami (+1) over the Jets
Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) over Washington
Sunday Late:
Oakland (+2) over Kansas City
Giants (-1) over Cowboys
Sunday Night:
New Orleans (+6) over Denver
Monday Night:
San Fran (-7) over Arizona
Last week against the spread: 10-2-1
Last week straight up: 11-2
Season against the spread: 57-44-3
Season straight up: 66-38
As always, Thursday Night Football sucks.
Thursday Night:
Tampa (+5) over Minnesota
Sunday Early:
Chicago (-9) over Carolina
San Diego (-3) over Cleveland
Detroit (-1) over Seattle
Green Bay (-15) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (+4) over Tennessee
St. Louis (+7) over New England (New England straight up)
Miami (+1) over the Jets
Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) over Washington
Sunday Late:
Oakland (+2) over Kansas City
Giants (-1) over Cowboys
Sunday Night:
New Orleans (+6) over Denver
Monday Night:
San Fran (-7) over Arizona
Last week against the spread: 10-2-1
Last week straight up: 11-2
Season against the spread: 57-44-3
Season straight up: 66-38
As always, Thursday Night Football sucks.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week Six
Last week against the spread: 8-6
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 42-33-2
Season straight up: 49-28
Another solid week last week, finishing ahead against the spread and a solid 10-4 straight up. Eerily, as I look back to my week six picks last year, I started by posting my record, which was as follows:
"Last week against the spread: 9-4
Last week straight up: 10-3
Season against the spread: 38-37-2
Season straight up: 52-25"
So, at this point in the year I am doing much better against the spread and slightly worse straight up. That said, 21 games above .500 straight up isn't bad, and I'll always take nine games up on the spread every five weeks. This week I'm looking to build momentum, but during a dangerous week. Why is this week dangerous, you might ask? In fact, I'll answer this as if my millions (read: three) of readers were asking it aloud:
Question: Mike, why is this week dangerous?
Answer: Thanks millions (read: three) of faithful readers! I'll tell you why it's a dangerous week for me. You see, my fantasy football team has already decided it's not interested in commemorating Aaron Rodgers final season with my team by going for a fourth straight third place finish. Instead, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. To wit, my fiancee moved me up to the number six pick, the worst possible place to draft in our twelve team league this year. Then, Chris Johnson was the only option sitting at number six worth drafting (side note: I was unaware at the time that last year's "down" year for Chris Johnson was actually a great year compared to what he was going to bring to the table this year. In hindsight, I could have drafted Curtis Enis and probably been better off because at least I could cut Enis. But I digress). I followed that up by having Steven Jackson fall to me, then Larry Fitzgerald, then Brandon Lloyd. My draft plan was completely screwed up and the players I wanted kept getting taken right ahead of my pick. I took a plethora of 2nd tier running backs and wide receivers, needing to only hit on one or two to have a great team. I then hit on C.J. Spiller then watched him get injured and now am watching him get stuck in a running back by committee. Needless to say I'm 2-3, scoring nowhere near enough points to fathom making the playoff redraft, and I'm ready to sell off my team for draft picks next year. The problem with this? Nobody in my league wants to trade yet. So that's one reason why this week is dangerous: I'm checked out of fantasy football, so I'm not really paying attention to the other teams. The other reason is much simpler: the Bears are on a bye week, and I work all day Sunday, so I have nothing to draw me in this week.
So, with the challenge of fantasy apathy, a Bears' bye week, and a marathon double shift on Sunday, consider yourself warned: all the signs are there for a picks regression. Still, I'll try.
ON TO THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(New Orleans, Carolina and Jacksonville join Chicago on the bye ... that alone should make gambling more difficult with three stay away teams on the sideline)
Thursday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-5) over Tennessee - My thoughts: Pittsburgh has a running game again, and was able to beat a (supposedly) good Eagles team last week. Tennessee doesn't look good. The sad thing? I'll end up starting Chris Johnson again this week because I have no other good options.
Sunday Day Games
Atlanta (-9) over Oakland - My thoughts: Atlanta should be able to score on Oakland, and Palmer is liable to be down three, pressing, and throw a game ending TAINT (Touchdown After Interception). Or Atlanta might just kill them. Either way, this line would have to be 10+ for me to take the points and Oakland.
Cincinnati (-1) over Cleveland - My thoughts: This is free money, right? Even if Cincinnati is the "good bad team" this year, we also are sure that Cleveland is one of the "bad bad teams" right? Is Andy Dalton currently abducted by aliens? A.J. Green? How does this line makes sense?
St. Louis (+4) over Miami - My thoughts: I'm not sure if St. Louis is the best "good bad team" or the worst "bad good team" but I think I'll take more than three for them against a Miami team due for regression after last week.
Jets (-3) over Indianapolis - My thoughts: The Jets held it together against Houston; I think that Indy had their emotional win last week, and this becomes a defacto must win for Rex and the Jets. This feels like the game the Jets win that starts the "are the Jets going to be ok" talk. You know, the one that comes right before the next lopsided loss restarting the "should Tebow replace Sanchez" talk.
Philadelphia (-5) over Detroit - My thoughts: this game is like a movable object going up against a stoppable force. Andy Reid is a terrible coach. Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach. We will leave this game either thinking that the Eagles are frauds and not very good, or that the Lions are done. I hate giving points when Andy Reid is involved, but Detroit has looked bad, and Philly's defense is actually pretty good.
Tampa Bay (-3) over Kansas City - My thoughts: YUCK! That's my main thought about this game. My second thought would be when a home team is -3 that means Vegas thinks the game is even. The final thought: if you have to make a pick in this game, go against Romeo on the road.
Baltimore (-4) over Dallas - My thoughts: The Raven's disappointing game last week brings this line down way too far. I saw what can be done to Dallas when my Bears did it to them. Baltimore may have some flaws, but that team can do the same to Dallas
Sunday Late Games
Buffalo (+5) over Arizona - My thoughts: Buffalo has looked AWFUL the last two weeks. But Arizona continues to look worse and worse on offense; they have no running game, and no QB to throw the ball to Fitzgerald (remember, he's on my fantasy team so I know this). I'd stay away from this game entirely, but gun to head I'd take the points on the thoughts of a rebound game for Buffalo. (NOTE: After making this pick I found out Dave Wannstedt is the Bills defensive coordinator. That explains how their defense gave up over 1,200 yards in the last two games and nearly 100 points. Needless to say, I might take this game back if I could, but since I already wrote it I'll just hedge saying ARIZONA STRAIGHT UP. Also, how the hell is Dave Wannstedt still getting coaching jobs in football? Would you hire him to coach a pee-wee league team?)
New England (-4) over Seattle - My thoughts: this line seems low, and I like the way that New England is playing. Tough defense, tough running game, a little Brady sprinkled in ... holy crap, did I just time warp back to 2003?
San Francisco (-5) over NY Giants - My thoughts: revenge for the NFC title game. Also, San Fran is playing well, and the Giants just let Brandon Weeden roll 27 points up on them.
Minnesota (+2) over Washington - My thoughts: if Cousins is the QB this is a no brainer: take the points. If RGIII is healthy this becomes more of a tough question.
Sunday Night Game
Houston (-4) over Green Bay - My thoughts: a "season may be on the line early" type game for the Pack. Do you realize they are very close to being 1-4, and that the only team they showed up against was my Bears? Do you realize that if Houston wins this game we'll have the talking heads on ESPN talking all week about how Houston is Super Bowl bound, and the Packers are on life support? Do you realize that I'm a Bears fan, and that the Colts playing the Packers is the only possible scenario where I would root for the Colts ... so I celebrated the Packers' late choke last week? Do you realize I'm answering the "my thoughts" segment with only questions at this point?
Monday Night Game
Denver (+1) over San Diego - My thoughts: A week ago, San Diego was 3-1 and starting to get "the Chargers just MIGHT run away with this division" buzz. I'm amazed how many people forget that Norv Turner is still (inexplicably) coaching this team. Manning wins, both teams come out 3-3, and the buzz goes to "when will Norv get fired?" again. The world will feel more right at that point.
Enjoy football for me everyone, I'll be working. As always, Thursday night football SUCKS.
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 42-33-2
Season straight up: 49-28
Another solid week last week, finishing ahead against the spread and a solid 10-4 straight up. Eerily, as I look back to my week six picks last year, I started by posting my record, which was as follows:
"Last week against the spread: 9-4
Last week straight up: 10-3
Season against the spread: 38-37-2
Season straight up: 52-25"
So, at this point in the year I am doing much better against the spread and slightly worse straight up. That said, 21 games above .500 straight up isn't bad, and I'll always take nine games up on the spread every five weeks. This week I'm looking to build momentum, but during a dangerous week. Why is this week dangerous, you might ask? In fact, I'll answer this as if my millions (read: three) of readers were asking it aloud:
Question: Mike, why is this week dangerous?
Answer: Thanks millions (read: three) of faithful readers! I'll tell you why it's a dangerous week for me. You see, my fantasy football team has already decided it's not interested in commemorating Aaron Rodgers final season with my team by going for a fourth straight third place finish. Instead, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. To wit, my fiancee moved me up to the number six pick, the worst possible place to draft in our twelve team league this year. Then, Chris Johnson was the only option sitting at number six worth drafting (side note: I was unaware at the time that last year's "down" year for Chris Johnson was actually a great year compared to what he was going to bring to the table this year. In hindsight, I could have drafted Curtis Enis and probably been better off because at least I could cut Enis. But I digress). I followed that up by having Steven Jackson fall to me, then Larry Fitzgerald, then Brandon Lloyd. My draft plan was completely screwed up and the players I wanted kept getting taken right ahead of my pick. I took a plethora of 2nd tier running backs and wide receivers, needing to only hit on one or two to have a great team. I then hit on C.J. Spiller then watched him get injured and now am watching him get stuck in a running back by committee. Needless to say I'm 2-3, scoring nowhere near enough points to fathom making the playoff redraft, and I'm ready to sell off my team for draft picks next year. The problem with this? Nobody in my league wants to trade yet. So that's one reason why this week is dangerous: I'm checked out of fantasy football, so I'm not really paying attention to the other teams. The other reason is much simpler: the Bears are on a bye week, and I work all day Sunday, so I have nothing to draw me in this week.
So, with the challenge of fantasy apathy, a Bears' bye week, and a marathon double shift on Sunday, consider yourself warned: all the signs are there for a picks regression. Still, I'll try.
ON TO THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(New Orleans, Carolina and Jacksonville join Chicago on the bye ... that alone should make gambling more difficult with three stay away teams on the sideline)
Thursday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-5) over Tennessee - My thoughts: Pittsburgh has a running game again, and was able to beat a (supposedly) good Eagles team last week. Tennessee doesn't look good. The sad thing? I'll end up starting Chris Johnson again this week because I have no other good options.
Sunday Day Games
Atlanta (-9) over Oakland - My thoughts: Atlanta should be able to score on Oakland, and Palmer is liable to be down three, pressing, and throw a game ending TAINT (Touchdown After Interception). Or Atlanta might just kill them. Either way, this line would have to be 10+ for me to take the points and Oakland.
Cincinnati (-1) over Cleveland - My thoughts: This is free money, right? Even if Cincinnati is the "good bad team" this year, we also are sure that Cleveland is one of the "bad bad teams" right? Is Andy Dalton currently abducted by aliens? A.J. Green? How does this line makes sense?
St. Louis (+4) over Miami - My thoughts: I'm not sure if St. Louis is the best "good bad team" or the worst "bad good team" but I think I'll take more than three for them against a Miami team due for regression after last week.
Jets (-3) over Indianapolis - My thoughts: The Jets held it together against Houston; I think that Indy had their emotional win last week, and this becomes a defacto must win for Rex and the Jets. This feels like the game the Jets win that starts the "are the Jets going to be ok" talk. You know, the one that comes right before the next lopsided loss restarting the "should Tebow replace Sanchez" talk.
Philadelphia (-5) over Detroit - My thoughts: this game is like a movable object going up against a stoppable force. Andy Reid is a terrible coach. Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach. We will leave this game either thinking that the Eagles are frauds and not very good, or that the Lions are done. I hate giving points when Andy Reid is involved, but Detroit has looked bad, and Philly's defense is actually pretty good.
Tampa Bay (-3) over Kansas City - My thoughts: YUCK! That's my main thought about this game. My second thought would be when a home team is -3 that means Vegas thinks the game is even. The final thought: if you have to make a pick in this game, go against Romeo on the road.
Baltimore (-4) over Dallas - My thoughts: The Raven's disappointing game last week brings this line down way too far. I saw what can be done to Dallas when my Bears did it to them. Baltimore may have some flaws, but that team can do the same to Dallas
Sunday Late Games
Buffalo (+5) over Arizona - My thoughts: Buffalo has looked AWFUL the last two weeks. But Arizona continues to look worse and worse on offense; they have no running game, and no QB to throw the ball to Fitzgerald (remember, he's on my fantasy team so I know this). I'd stay away from this game entirely, but gun to head I'd take the points on the thoughts of a rebound game for Buffalo. (NOTE: After making this pick I found out Dave Wannstedt is the Bills defensive coordinator. That explains how their defense gave up over 1,200 yards in the last two games and nearly 100 points. Needless to say, I might take this game back if I could, but since I already wrote it I'll just hedge saying ARIZONA STRAIGHT UP. Also, how the hell is Dave Wannstedt still getting coaching jobs in football? Would you hire him to coach a pee-wee league team?)
New England (-4) over Seattle - My thoughts: this line seems low, and I like the way that New England is playing. Tough defense, tough running game, a little Brady sprinkled in ... holy crap, did I just time warp back to 2003?
San Francisco (-5) over NY Giants - My thoughts: revenge for the NFC title game. Also, San Fran is playing well, and the Giants just let Brandon Weeden roll 27 points up on them.
Minnesota (+2) over Washington - My thoughts: if Cousins is the QB this is a no brainer: take the points. If RGIII is healthy this becomes more of a tough question.
Sunday Night Game
Houston (-4) over Green Bay - My thoughts: a "season may be on the line early" type game for the Pack. Do you realize they are very close to being 1-4, and that the only team they showed up against was my Bears? Do you realize that if Houston wins this game we'll have the talking heads on ESPN talking all week about how Houston is Super Bowl bound, and the Packers are on life support? Do you realize that I'm a Bears fan, and that the Colts playing the Packers is the only possible scenario where I would root for the Colts ... so I celebrated the Packers' late choke last week? Do you realize I'm answering the "my thoughts" segment with only questions at this point?
Monday Night Game
Denver (+1) over San Diego - My thoughts: A week ago, San Diego was 3-1 and starting to get "the Chargers just MIGHT run away with this division" buzz. I'm amazed how many people forget that Norv Turner is still (inexplicably) coaching this team. Manning wins, both teams come out 3-3, and the buzz goes to "when will Norv get fired?" again. The world will feel more right at that point.
Enjoy football for me everyone, I'll be working. As always, Thursday night football SUCKS.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
2012 NFL Picks Week 5 - In Brief
Most of my writing time went to the debate tonight; here's the picks for the week.
Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 14-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I had to count this three times)
Season against the spread: 34-27-2
Season straight up: 39-24
Thursday Night:
St Louis (+1) over Arizona
Sunday Early Games
Cincinnati (-3) over Miami
Green Bay (-7) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-6) over Kansas City
NY Giants (-8) over Cleveland
Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia
Atlanta (-3) over Washington
Sunday Late Games
Seattle (+3) over Carolina
Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville
Tennessee (+6) over Minnesota
New England (-7) over Denver
San Francisco (-10) over Buffalo
Sunday Night Game
San Diego (+4) over New Orleans
Monday Night
Jets (+9) over Houston (Houston straight up)
Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 14-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I had to count this three times)
Season against the spread: 34-27-2
Season straight up: 39-24
Thursday Night:
St Louis (+1) over Arizona
Sunday Early Games
Cincinnati (-3) over Miami
Green Bay (-7) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-6) over Kansas City
NY Giants (-8) over Cleveland
Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia
Atlanta (-3) over Washington
Sunday Late Games
Seattle (+3) over Carolina
Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville
Tennessee (+6) over Minnesota
New England (-7) over Denver
San Francisco (-10) over Buffalo
Sunday Night Game
San Diego (+4) over New Orleans
Monday Night
Jets (+9) over Houston (Houston straight up)
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
2012 NFL Picks Week 4 ***Plus Presidential Polls***
Well, the combination of a poor performance by the Bears offense (albeit with another great defensive/special teams performance), plus my fantasy team continuing to crap the bed from a team that looked great on paper to one that can't function (thanks to my boss, a life long Bills fan for jinxing CJ Spiller for me), plus the awful officiating culminating in the officials blowing the Sunday and Monday night games ... yeah, I'm borderline out on the NFL until the real officials are back. Which, incidentally, looks like it might be soon. Or not. Really, who the hell knows? (If you didn't take the time to follow those links, ESPN right now says "Deal between NFL, Refs very close" while Sports Illustrated says "NFL, Referees still not close to a deal." I LOVE headlines and the 24 hour a day news cycle.)
So, with that said, I thought I'd take a look at the shocking reality that is becoming this presidential election cycle. If you've read my political breakdowns here before, you know that I looked at the Republican Primary season from a "who is most likely to win" schema. I will view the general election the same way. That said, some general pointers from history indicate that:
- Presidents with economies in recession don't win re-election.
- A President with an economy this poor hasn't won re-election since FDR
- Barack Obama is the President.
Pretty simple, right? The economy has continued an uber slow recovery, barely creeping along at times. The housing market continues to be in shambles. The Congress hasn't accomplished a thing since the midterm elections split the House and the Senate in 2010. Historically, this election would look like 1976, 1980, or 1992. In each of those elections a weak incumbent, hamstrung by issues, faded quickly and ended up being defeated. 1980 (Reagan over Carter) and 1992 (Clinton over H.W. Bush) are particularly pertinent examples. To wit:
- With Carter, the nation's unemployment rate sat at 7.5% when he took office in 1977. It went steadily down, getting under 6% through much of 1979, but in 1980, an election year, the rate went back up into the 7.2-7.8% rate. Carter also faced a major crisis in the Middle East (the Iranian Hostage situation) and high energy (read: GAS) costs. Keep in mind: unemployment actually exploded under Reagan's first term , eventually going over 10% for ten concurrent months between September 1982 and June of 1983. It started declining at that point, however, and by November of 1984 (election time) the rate was at a much more comfortable 7.4%. You know, .1% less than it was when high unemployment helped to undo Carter in 1980. The message, as always? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Whereas unemployment was heading in the wrong direction for Carter, Reagan could argue that things were headed in the right direction. Incidentally, they were proven "right" as unemployment continued to plummet during Ronnie's 2nd term, down to sub 6% his entire last year.
- With Bush, he took over a stable economy that held under 6% unemployment his entire first year. But then those evil economic forces started to creep in and the unemployment rate slowly started creeping up. By 1992 the rate climbed back over 7% (October 1991 to be exact) and stayed over 7% throughout 1992. Although H.W.'s foreign policy was generally (and honestly still is) something to be commended, the economic difficulty brought in Clinton, who saw unemployment rates that Reagan could only dream of, seeing 42 straight months under 5% (and even some months under 4%) to end out his term. During the "Dubya" administration rates held fairly steady, until the end where rates made it to 7% by the time he left office.
Now, if rates over 7% indicate a candidate's doom, Obama's rates above 8% (after three years sitting between 9-10%) should spell certain doom. Of course, if it were that easy, Mitt Romney should be celebrating right now. Right? After all, both Reagan and Clinton were able to breath pretty easy. However, look at the polls right now, and you find a different reality. Every set of polling data that comes out looks better and better for Obama, worse and worse for Romney. Today's Quinnipiac poll shockingly shows Obama up by DOUBLE DIGITS in three major swing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. And while this poll shows the largest margins of all polls, it continues the absolute trend among polls moving towards Obama. I won't take the time to break them all down here, but this link gives you a break down of each and every reputable poll. The question, simply put, isn't IF Obama is in the lead, but HOW MUCH is Obama in the lead. Honestly, the more this continues trend this way the more the question becomes: does Romney even have a punchers chance?
So, why is Obama bucking history? I'm not sure I have the answer, but I do know this: Romney needs an unbelievable debate performance, starting next Wednesday, to have even a wing and a prayer of salvaging this thing. Needless to say, I'll try to clear out my schedule to live blog the debate next week. It sure as hell interests me more than the NFL's crappy replacement officials and my awful fantasy football team.
On to the picks:
Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
Last week straight up:8-8
Season against the spread: 25-21-2
Season straight up: 25-23
Thursday Night Game
Baltimore (-13) over Cleveland - Moral of the story: I fully believe Baltimore can blow this line and win by one or two ... but I still can't bet on Cleveland.
Sunday Early Games
Atlanta (-8) over Carolina - Moral of the story: after last week's game against San Diego, is this line high enough?
New England (-5) over Buffalo - no (good) RBs healthy in Buffalo, New England can't lose three in a row... can they?
Minnesota (+5) over Detroit - Moral of the story: I just have a hunch, particularly if Stafford is out.
San Diego (-1) over Kansas City - Moral of the story: I still don't believe in Romeo.
St. Louis (+3) over Seattle - Moral of the story: Bad karma for last week's replacement ref job over Green Bay.
San Francisco (-5) over NY Jets - Moral of the story: Revis out for the year is a huge blow. No offense, struggling defense, and I bet San Fran comes to play.
Tennessee (+13) over Houston - Moral of the story: Houston continues to play like a Super Bowl contender, but this line just feels to high. I'll take Houston to win the game, however.
Sunday Late Games
Denver (-7) over Oakland - Moral of the story: Oakland is confusing me, but I think Peyton is due for a semi-Peyton game.
Arizona (-6) over Miami - Moral of the story: Fool me once, shame on Arizona. Fool me three times (and counting) ...
Cincinnati (-3) over Jacksonville - Moral of the story: I am not glad I ended up with Chris Johnson instead of MJD on my fantasy roster.
Green Bay (-8) over New Orleans - Moral of the story: Good karma for the game on Monday.
Washington (+3) over Tampa Bay - Moral of the story: RGIII can move the pocket; Josh Freeman can't seem to get things done. That said, I need to watch this closely because with all the injuries in Washington I might be missing the bus here.
Sunday Night Game
NY Giants (+1) over Philadelphia - Moral of the story: I'm getting close to out on Philly
Monday Night Game
Chicago (+4) over Dallas - Moral of the story: Both offensive lines are ... offensive. I think the extra time off helps Chicago, and I want this very badly for my Uncle.
Until next time, Thursday night football sucks. Replacement refs suck more!
So, with that said, I thought I'd take a look at the shocking reality that is becoming this presidential election cycle. If you've read my political breakdowns here before, you know that I looked at the Republican Primary season from a "who is most likely to win" schema. I will view the general election the same way. That said, some general pointers from history indicate that:
- Presidents with economies in recession don't win re-election.
- A President with an economy this poor hasn't won re-election since FDR
- Barack Obama is the President.
Pretty simple, right? The economy has continued an uber slow recovery, barely creeping along at times. The housing market continues to be in shambles. The Congress hasn't accomplished a thing since the midterm elections split the House and the Senate in 2010. Historically, this election would look like 1976, 1980, or 1992. In each of those elections a weak incumbent, hamstrung by issues, faded quickly and ended up being defeated. 1980 (Reagan over Carter) and 1992 (Clinton over H.W. Bush) are particularly pertinent examples. To wit:
- With Carter, the nation's unemployment rate sat at 7.5% when he took office in 1977. It went steadily down, getting under 6% through much of 1979, but in 1980, an election year, the rate went back up into the 7.2-7.8% rate. Carter also faced a major crisis in the Middle East (the Iranian Hostage situation) and high energy (read: GAS) costs. Keep in mind: unemployment actually exploded under Reagan's first term , eventually going over 10% for ten concurrent months between September 1982 and June of 1983. It started declining at that point, however, and by November of 1984 (election time) the rate was at a much more comfortable 7.4%. You know, .1% less than it was when high unemployment helped to undo Carter in 1980. The message, as always? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Whereas unemployment was heading in the wrong direction for Carter, Reagan could argue that things were headed in the right direction. Incidentally, they were proven "right" as unemployment continued to plummet during Ronnie's 2nd term, down to sub 6% his entire last year.
- With Bush, he took over a stable economy that held under 6% unemployment his entire first year. But then those evil economic forces started to creep in and the unemployment rate slowly started creeping up. By 1992 the rate climbed back over 7% (October 1991 to be exact) and stayed over 7% throughout 1992. Although H.W.'s foreign policy was generally (and honestly still is) something to be commended, the economic difficulty brought in Clinton, who saw unemployment rates that Reagan could only dream of, seeing 42 straight months under 5% (and even some months under 4%) to end out his term. During the "Dubya" administration rates held fairly steady, until the end where rates made it to 7% by the time he left office.
Now, if rates over 7% indicate a candidate's doom, Obama's rates above 8% (after three years sitting between 9-10%) should spell certain doom. Of course, if it were that easy, Mitt Romney should be celebrating right now. Right? After all, both Reagan and Clinton were able to breath pretty easy. However, look at the polls right now, and you find a different reality. Every set of polling data that comes out looks better and better for Obama, worse and worse for Romney. Today's Quinnipiac poll shockingly shows Obama up by DOUBLE DIGITS in three major swing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. And while this poll shows the largest margins of all polls, it continues the absolute trend among polls moving towards Obama. I won't take the time to break them all down here, but this link gives you a break down of each and every reputable poll. The question, simply put, isn't IF Obama is in the lead, but HOW MUCH is Obama in the lead. Honestly, the more this continues trend this way the more the question becomes: does Romney even have a punchers chance?
So, why is Obama bucking history? I'm not sure I have the answer, but I do know this: Romney needs an unbelievable debate performance, starting next Wednesday, to have even a wing and a prayer of salvaging this thing. Needless to say, I'll try to clear out my schedule to live blog the debate next week. It sure as hell interests me more than the NFL's crappy replacement officials and my awful fantasy football team.
On to the picks:
Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
Last week straight up:8-8
Season against the spread: 25-21-2
Season straight up: 25-23
Thursday Night Game
Baltimore (-13) over Cleveland - Moral of the story: I fully believe Baltimore can blow this line and win by one or two ... but I still can't bet on Cleveland.
Sunday Early Games
Atlanta (-8) over Carolina - Moral of the story: after last week's game against San Diego, is this line high enough?
New England (-5) over Buffalo - no (good) RBs healthy in Buffalo, New England can't lose three in a row... can they?
Minnesota (+5) over Detroit - Moral of the story: I just have a hunch, particularly if Stafford is out.
San Diego (-1) over Kansas City - Moral of the story: I still don't believe in Romeo.
St. Louis (+3) over Seattle - Moral of the story: Bad karma for last week's replacement ref job over Green Bay.
San Francisco (-5) over NY Jets - Moral of the story: Revis out for the year is a huge blow. No offense, struggling defense, and I bet San Fran comes to play.
Tennessee (+13) over Houston - Moral of the story: Houston continues to play like a Super Bowl contender, but this line just feels to high. I'll take Houston to win the game, however.
Sunday Late Games
Denver (-7) over Oakland - Moral of the story: Oakland is confusing me, but I think Peyton is due for a semi-Peyton game.
Arizona (-6) over Miami - Moral of the story: Fool me once, shame on Arizona. Fool me three times (and counting) ...
Cincinnati (-3) over Jacksonville - Moral of the story: I am not glad I ended up with Chris Johnson instead of MJD on my fantasy roster.
Green Bay (-8) over New Orleans - Moral of the story: Good karma for the game on Monday.
Washington (+3) over Tampa Bay - Moral of the story: RGIII can move the pocket; Josh Freeman can't seem to get things done. That said, I need to watch this closely because with all the injuries in Washington I might be missing the bus here.
Sunday Night Game
NY Giants (+1) over Philadelphia - Moral of the story: I'm getting close to out on Philly
Monday Night Game
Chicago (+4) over Dallas - Moral of the story: Both offensive lines are ... offensive. I think the extra time off helps Chicago, and I want this very badly for my Uncle.
Until next time, Thursday night football sucks. Replacement refs suck more!
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
2012 NFL Picks Week 3
Sometimes I am very glad that I don't bet copious amounts of money on the NFL. Last week was one of those times. After two weeks, one eighth of the way through the season, almost everything I thought I knew at the season's onset is being called into questions. The AFC East is a bunch of 1-1 teams, with each team having one game where it looked like a potential division champion and one game looking like a scrub. Arizona, one of my picks to be the laughing stock of the league, is 2-0 with a victory over New England, my preseason pick to win it all. Above all else, my Bears proved emphatically that Lovie still has not learned to game plan, or at least that he has no idea how to go after the Packers.
Looking at this another way, consider the following:
- six teams are 2-0; of those teams, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Houston and maybe San Diego can be expected, while Arizona couldn't have been.
- 20 teams (including the entirety of the NFC North and AFC East are 1-1, most of them looking great one week and awful the next.
- The remaining six teams are 0-2; of those teams New Orleans might be the biggest surprise, but Kansas City has certainly surprised me with their level of stink (roped in by Romeo Crennel again!)
Twenty teams doing a Jekyll/Hyde act ... I suppose that explains a bit of why I have no idea who to pick this week. However...
9-6-1 against the spread. That was my record last week, which shocked me (again, I struggled with the late games). 9-7 straight up. In a week that felt totally hectic, my picks weren't actually that bad. So what to make of all of it? I have a few thoughts on the NFL right now:
1. The replacement officials have added a degree of variability to the product on the field. The Rams-Redskins game was the most blatantly physical game in the better part of a decade. The Falcons-Broncos game showed the same thing: teams are looking for ways to take advantage of the rules. Mike Lombari was on the Score (670 AM Chicago) this week and stated that he hasn't seen one instance of the illegal contact call made this year. This rule, remember, was the "Peyton Manning Rule," instituted after Bill Polian whined to the NFL about the Patriots playing physical defense on the Colts WRs. Essentially, you can't contact a receiver at all after 5 yards ... except the first two games of this year when, apparently, you can. The officials have yet to completely blow a game, at least as near as I can tell (and please understand that I've only seen one game this year so far: Bears V Colts). But the impact of the officials is vastly changing the way teams are playing.
2. The regression of the big three is fully in progress. Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were heads and shoulders above all others in the league. This year all three are playing much more human. Take it from me (starting Rodgers on my fantasy team): this is very real. It has also led to those three starting the year 2-4. If I had given you that bet at the start of the year you would have said they'd have more than two wins.
3. With all the young QBs starting in the league right now teams don't have the consistency they might have had with a veteran hand at the helm. Couple that with some atrocious offensive lines (Chicago and Pittsburgh) and you have a huge number of teams that will look all world one week, and worth of the top pick in the draft the next.
If I had to do a power ranking of the NFL teams, grouped by where I see them fitting into the big scheme, it would look this way:
Top Pick Here We Come! (The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes)
32. Oakland (0-2) - After making Ryan Tannehill look like Joe Montana, I believe Oakland is that bad.
31. Cleveland (0-2) - I still don't believe in Brandon Weeden.
30. Kansas City (0-2) - And that's how my AFC West pick loses me after two games. ROMEO!!!!!
29. Jacksonville (0-2) - I still don't believe in Blaine Gabbert.
28. Tennessee (0-2) - Their offensive line is downright offensive, leading to Chris Johnson getting 24 yards on 19 carries, leading to my fantasy team completely being a nightmare. Thanks Tennessee offensive line.
27. Miami (1-1) - AND I still don't believe in Ryan Tannehill
26. Arizona (2-0) - Yeah, I still don't believe. Also, I might be a bit upset that Larry Fitzgerald had 4 yards receiving last week. Yes, he's on my fantasy team.
The Best of the Bad Teams (good enough to rope you in, bad enough to blow a game when you bet on them)
25. Minnesota (1-1) - Ponder is probably the second best QB on the roster, yet he starts.
24. Indianapolis (1-1) - Luck will be up and down this year, but looks like he has the tools. Again, however, a porous offensive line.
The Team That Might Just Be Screwed This Year (as if bounty gate didn't already prove that)
23. New Orleans (0-2) - This just seems like the type of year where everything that can go wrong will go wrong. If I was Drew Brees I'd take out insurance against a significant injury.
The Complete Enigmas (teams that could go either way, and have huge question marks)
22. Carolina (1-1) - Is there a running game in Carolina?
21. St. Louis (1-1) - Is Sam Bradford a franchise QB?
20. Buffalo (1-1) - Is there talent here, or is it just an illusion? What is Ryan Fitzpatrick?
19. Seattle (1-1) - Should Russell Wilson really be starting over Matt Flynn?
18. Washington (1-1) - Can this offense adapt and gain complexity?
17. Cincinnati (1-1) - Can the Bengals play with the big boys? They sure looked bad against Baltimore.
16. Tampa Bay (1-1) - Are the Bucs 10-6 quality (2010) or as bad as last year? Can Schiano coach with the big boys?
15. Detroit (1-1) - Can a team win without any semblance of a running game? Also, can a team survive a coach who struggles with emotional control?
14. Dallas (1-1) - Can their offensive line block like they did against the Giants, or will they be as porous as they were in Seattle?
13. Chicago (1-1) - Will Lovie ever be able to game plan for a better team? Can the offensive line ever learn to block? Will they stay health? At what point will Urlacher punch Lovie for wasting his prime with stupid offensive schemes? And, above all else, is Cutler a leader?
12. NY Jets (1-1) - Good Sanchez? Bad Sanchez? Wither Tebow Christ?
11. Pittsburgh (1-1) - Again, porous offensive line, aging defense, no running game... can this team win with great coaching and Big Ben?
10. Denver (1-1) - Can Peyton stay healthy? Can he throw deep down field? How will he do now that his remaining 14 games are outdoors?
The Teams With The Talent To Win (should be factor because...)
9. San Diego (2-0) - They've had talent for awhile... but they still have Norv...
8. Baltimore (1-1) - They might have a more dynamic offense ... but are they getting old, and is Flacco consistent enough?
7. Green Bay (1-1) - they still have Rodgers ... but has he peaked?
6. Philadelphia (2-0) - they are talented ... but barely beat the Browns...
5. NY Giants (1-1) - They won it all last year ... but are off to an unimpressive start.
4. Atlanta (2-0) - They should have a clear run to the division title ... but is Matt Ryan ready to make the leap?
3. New England (1-1) - They have more defense this year ... but is Brady getting over the hill?
2. Houston (2-0) - They have offense and defense and have looked as good as they should.
1. San Francisco (2-0) - They look locked in and ready to go. Period.
With all that as the background, on to the picks:
- Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
- Last week straight up: 9-7
- Season against the spread: 16-15-1
- Season straight up: 17-15
Thursday Night
Giants (+3) over Carolina - This line seems off to me, so I'll take the Giants + the points in a game that ESPN is telling me is a toss up. Also, I just want to reiterate how absolutely stupid Thursday night football games are. On my list of reasons why Roger Goodell is the worst commissioner this side of Gary Bettman, this is somewhere on the top ten.
Sunday Early Games
Bears (-8) over St. Louis - I am giving Lovie one more chance: I'll be able to watch this one and I have some faith that the problem is just that Green Bay has some combination of his and Cutler's number. But if they don't look great in this game it might be time for the year's first "why can't we fire Lovie, this guy sucks" blog rants.
Buffalo (-3) over Cleveland - Assuming that the Bills actual level of performance fall somewhere between their week one debacle against the Jets and last week's evisceration of the Chiefs, this line seems right.
Tampa Bay (+8) over Dallas (Dallas straight up) - I think Dallas will bounce back to win, but I get the feeling that Tampa will be a tough out. Of course, if Dallas loses my uncle will get a week of "what's wrong with the Cowboys" sports radio... which is nice.
Detroit (-4) over Tennessee - I've exited the Titans bandwagon. I just hope that the Lions porous defense can resurrect Chris Johnson's corpse for my fantasy team's well being.
Indianapolis (-3) over Jacksonville - Really this comes down to a simple formula in my mind: Luck > Gabbert.
Jets (-3) over Miami - This just feels like the Jets bouncing back to establish their place as one of the better teams that isn't really that good. Miami, on the other hand? I'll just say that Rex Ryan might give up his defensive genius card if he can't take advantage of Tannehill.
San Francisco (-8) over Minnesota - As you can see from my power rankings, I'm in on the 49ers.
New Orleans (-9) over Kansas City - A stoppable force meets a moveable object! I think coach Brees can find a way against Coach Romeo. Just saying.
Cincinnati (+3) over Washington - Just a hunch here, but this game is the perfect line and could go either way.
Sunday Late Games
Philadelpia (+4) over Arizona- This HAS to be where the wheels come off for Arizona, right? RIGHT?
Atlanta (+3) over San Diego - Norv Turner can't start 3-0... right?
Houston (-3) over Denver - Until Peyton Manning proves he can throw the ball 50+ yards in the air I've got questions. Houston should be able to cover the spread on the road here. This should be the game of the day, however.
Pittsburgh(+5) over Oakland - Based on my power rankings I shouldn't think about this. So I won't.
Sunday Night Game
New England (+3) over Baltimore - If New England hadn't inexplicably crapped the bed last week this is Patriots -3. I'll take the points, but this game should tell us a great deal about both teams.
Monday Night Game
Green Bay (-4) over Seattle - I can't root for Green Bay (unlike my brother), and I'm always hoping for the epic "Rodgers throws for six TDs, 700 yards, and the Packers STILL Lose"... but I need to see something from Mr. Rodgers right about now for my fantasy season. I think he does it here.
Looking at this another way, consider the following:
- six teams are 2-0; of those teams, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Houston and maybe San Diego can be expected, while Arizona couldn't have been.
- 20 teams (including the entirety of the NFC North and AFC East are 1-1, most of them looking great one week and awful the next.
- The remaining six teams are 0-2; of those teams New Orleans might be the biggest surprise, but Kansas City has certainly surprised me with their level of stink (roped in by Romeo Crennel again!)
Twenty teams doing a Jekyll/Hyde act ... I suppose that explains a bit of why I have no idea who to pick this week. However...
9-6-1 against the spread. That was my record last week, which shocked me (again, I struggled with the late games). 9-7 straight up. In a week that felt totally hectic, my picks weren't actually that bad. So what to make of all of it? I have a few thoughts on the NFL right now:
1. The replacement officials have added a degree of variability to the product on the field. The Rams-Redskins game was the most blatantly physical game in the better part of a decade. The Falcons-Broncos game showed the same thing: teams are looking for ways to take advantage of the rules. Mike Lombari was on the Score (670 AM Chicago) this week and stated that he hasn't seen one instance of the illegal contact call made this year. This rule, remember, was the "Peyton Manning Rule," instituted after Bill Polian whined to the NFL about the Patriots playing physical defense on the Colts WRs. Essentially, you can't contact a receiver at all after 5 yards ... except the first two games of this year when, apparently, you can. The officials have yet to completely blow a game, at least as near as I can tell (and please understand that I've only seen one game this year so far: Bears V Colts). But the impact of the officials is vastly changing the way teams are playing.
2. The regression of the big three is fully in progress. Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were heads and shoulders above all others in the league. This year all three are playing much more human. Take it from me (starting Rodgers on my fantasy team): this is very real. It has also led to those three starting the year 2-4. If I had given you that bet at the start of the year you would have said they'd have more than two wins.
3. With all the young QBs starting in the league right now teams don't have the consistency they might have had with a veteran hand at the helm. Couple that with some atrocious offensive lines (Chicago and Pittsburgh) and you have a huge number of teams that will look all world one week, and worth of the top pick in the draft the next.
If I had to do a power ranking of the NFL teams, grouped by where I see them fitting into the big scheme, it would look this way:
Top Pick Here We Come! (The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes)
32. Oakland (0-2) - After making Ryan Tannehill look like Joe Montana, I believe Oakland is that bad.
31. Cleveland (0-2) - I still don't believe in Brandon Weeden.
30. Kansas City (0-2) - And that's how my AFC West pick loses me after two games. ROMEO!!!!!
29. Jacksonville (0-2) - I still don't believe in Blaine Gabbert.
28. Tennessee (0-2) - Their offensive line is downright offensive, leading to Chris Johnson getting 24 yards on 19 carries, leading to my fantasy team completely being a nightmare. Thanks Tennessee offensive line.
27. Miami (1-1) - AND I still don't believe in Ryan Tannehill
26. Arizona (2-0) - Yeah, I still don't believe. Also, I might be a bit upset that Larry Fitzgerald had 4 yards receiving last week. Yes, he's on my fantasy team.
The Best of the Bad Teams (good enough to rope you in, bad enough to blow a game when you bet on them)
25. Minnesota (1-1) - Ponder is probably the second best QB on the roster, yet he starts.
24. Indianapolis (1-1) - Luck will be up and down this year, but looks like he has the tools. Again, however, a porous offensive line.
The Team That Might Just Be Screwed This Year (as if bounty gate didn't already prove that)
23. New Orleans (0-2) - This just seems like the type of year where everything that can go wrong will go wrong. If I was Drew Brees I'd take out insurance against a significant injury.
The Complete Enigmas (teams that could go either way, and have huge question marks)
22. Carolina (1-1) - Is there a running game in Carolina?
21. St. Louis (1-1) - Is Sam Bradford a franchise QB?
20. Buffalo (1-1) - Is there talent here, or is it just an illusion? What is Ryan Fitzpatrick?
19. Seattle (1-1) - Should Russell Wilson really be starting over Matt Flynn?
18. Washington (1-1) - Can this offense adapt and gain complexity?
17. Cincinnati (1-1) - Can the Bengals play with the big boys? They sure looked bad against Baltimore.
16. Tampa Bay (1-1) - Are the Bucs 10-6 quality (2010) or as bad as last year? Can Schiano coach with the big boys?
15. Detroit (1-1) - Can a team win without any semblance of a running game? Also, can a team survive a coach who struggles with emotional control?
14. Dallas (1-1) - Can their offensive line block like they did against the Giants, or will they be as porous as they were in Seattle?
13. Chicago (1-1) - Will Lovie ever be able to game plan for a better team? Can the offensive line ever learn to block? Will they stay health? At what point will Urlacher punch Lovie for wasting his prime with stupid offensive schemes? And, above all else, is Cutler a leader?
12. NY Jets (1-1) - Good Sanchez? Bad Sanchez? Wither Tebow Christ?
11. Pittsburgh (1-1) - Again, porous offensive line, aging defense, no running game... can this team win with great coaching and Big Ben?
10. Denver (1-1) - Can Peyton stay healthy? Can he throw deep down field? How will he do now that his remaining 14 games are outdoors?
The Teams With The Talent To Win (should be factor because...)
9. San Diego (2-0) - They've had talent for awhile... but they still have Norv...
8. Baltimore (1-1) - They might have a more dynamic offense ... but are they getting old, and is Flacco consistent enough?
7. Green Bay (1-1) - they still have Rodgers ... but has he peaked?
6. Philadelphia (2-0) - they are talented ... but barely beat the Browns...
5. NY Giants (1-1) - They won it all last year ... but are off to an unimpressive start.
4. Atlanta (2-0) - They should have a clear run to the division title ... but is Matt Ryan ready to make the leap?
3. New England (1-1) - They have more defense this year ... but is Brady getting over the hill?
2. Houston (2-0) - They have offense and defense and have looked as good as they should.
1. San Francisco (2-0) - They look locked in and ready to go. Period.
With all that as the background, on to the picks:
- Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
- Last week straight up: 9-7
- Season against the spread: 16-15-1
- Season straight up: 17-15
Thursday Night
Giants (+3) over Carolina - This line seems off to me, so I'll take the Giants + the points in a game that ESPN is telling me is a toss up. Also, I just want to reiterate how absolutely stupid Thursday night football games are. On my list of reasons why Roger Goodell is the worst commissioner this side of Gary Bettman, this is somewhere on the top ten.
Sunday Early Games
Bears (-8) over St. Louis - I am giving Lovie one more chance: I'll be able to watch this one and I have some faith that the problem is just that Green Bay has some combination of his and Cutler's number. But if they don't look great in this game it might be time for the year's first "why can't we fire Lovie, this guy sucks" blog rants.
Buffalo (-3) over Cleveland - Assuming that the Bills actual level of performance fall somewhere between their week one debacle against the Jets and last week's evisceration of the Chiefs, this line seems right.
Tampa Bay (+8) over Dallas (Dallas straight up) - I think Dallas will bounce back to win, but I get the feeling that Tampa will be a tough out. Of course, if Dallas loses my uncle will get a week of "what's wrong with the Cowboys" sports radio... which is nice.
Detroit (-4) over Tennessee - I've exited the Titans bandwagon. I just hope that the Lions porous defense can resurrect Chris Johnson's corpse for my fantasy team's well being.
Indianapolis (-3) over Jacksonville - Really this comes down to a simple formula in my mind: Luck > Gabbert.
Jets (-3) over Miami - This just feels like the Jets bouncing back to establish their place as one of the better teams that isn't really that good. Miami, on the other hand? I'll just say that Rex Ryan might give up his defensive genius card if he can't take advantage of Tannehill.
San Francisco (-8) over Minnesota - As you can see from my power rankings, I'm in on the 49ers.
New Orleans (-9) over Kansas City - A stoppable force meets a moveable object! I think coach Brees can find a way against Coach Romeo. Just saying.
Cincinnati (+3) over Washington - Just a hunch here, but this game is the perfect line and could go either way.
Sunday Late Games
Philadelpia (+4) over Arizona- This HAS to be where the wheels come off for Arizona, right? RIGHT?
Atlanta (+3) over San Diego - Norv Turner can't start 3-0... right?
Houston (-3) over Denver - Until Peyton Manning proves he can throw the ball 50+ yards in the air I've got questions. Houston should be able to cover the spread on the road here. This should be the game of the day, however.
Pittsburgh(+5) over Oakland - Based on my power rankings I shouldn't think about this. So I won't.
Sunday Night Game
New England (+3) over Baltimore - If New England hadn't inexplicably crapped the bed last week this is Patriots -3. I'll take the points, but this game should tell us a great deal about both teams.
Monday Night Game
Green Bay (-4) over Seattle - I can't root for Green Bay (unlike my brother), and I'm always hoping for the epic "Rodgers throws for six TDs, 700 yards, and the Packers STILL Lose"... but I need to see something from Mr. Rodgers right about now for my fantasy season. I think he does it here.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
2012 NFL Picks Week 2
This week I will miss every football game due to work (Thursday and Sunday) and Class (Monday). I am officially tired of doing 80+ hours of work, school and practicum every week. I made it to the half way point of my 3rd of 32 weeks before announcing it on a blog. I think that's a victory.
Anyway, a reminder that I pull the lines right from ESPN.com on the scoreboard page. Before I dive into the week 2 picks, last week I went:
- 7 and 9 against the spread
- 8 and 8 straight up.
Not the best start, but something manageable to build on for the rest of the year.
On to this week's picks:
- Chicago (+6) over Green Bay (Chicago straight up) - Cutler to Green Bay secondary: "enjoy Brandon Marshall: try playing physical with him." I'm generally not in favor of too much trash talking when the opponent has owned your jock (literally, I think the Packers have owned Jay's jock since he came over from Denver). I'm going to take this as not so quiet confidence rather than being overzealous. Either way, I'll be at work all night so I'll have to get updates via the cell phone. HUGE bummer. Thursday night NFL games are stupid.
Sunday early games
- Bills (-3) over Chiefs - I'm already regretting my preseason predictions for both of these teams. A special thanks Chan Gailey and Romeo Crennel for only taking one week to remind me why they are bad coaches. Are the Jets and the Falcons that good, or were these teams that bad? Either way, I'll drink the CJ Spiller Kool-Aid for one week at least... while I start him on my fantasy team.
- Cincinnati (-7) over Cleveland - One week after Baltimore showed the Bengals how they play football in the big boys league they get Brandon Weeden (he of the 5.1 QB rating). It's like comfort food, right? The logic here is simple: Cincinnati can't be as bad as they looked last week, but Cleveland easily can.
- Indianapolis (+2) over Minnesota - I think Andrew Luck will be motivated after all the RG3 talk he's hearing this week. Minnesota has a good pass rush, and Peterson looked fine last week, but Luck has the ability and will put it all together a number of weeks this year. I believe this may be one of them.
- Oakland (-3) over Miami - Yes, I think Ryan Tannehill his that bad. Look up Kyle Boller for my favorite comparison. Still, with the whole "west coast team coming east" thing it would make me feel a whole lot better if this line were under the field goal line.
- New England (-14) over Arizona - Check please!
- Tampa (+9) over NY Giants (Giants straight up) - I didn't do so hot with my hedges last week, but I'll try to hedge the Giants again and see if I have any more luck. I liked what I read about the Bucs defense last week, and I didn't like what I saw out of the Giants against Dallas.
- Ravens (+3) over Philadelphia - Did nearly losing to the Weeden disaster wake Philly up? No matter what, that Ravens offense looked even better than advertised on Monday night. Give me the points.
- Carolina (+3) over New Orleans - I tried to hedge last week with the Saints, but I fear that this may be one of those years where everything that can go wrong will go wrong for my friends in New Orleans.
- Houston (-8) over Jacksonville - is Houston ready to make the jump? If they are, this should be an easy line for them to cover.
Sunday Late Games
- Rams (+3) over Washington - I think Jeff Fisher will have a game plan to stop RGIII and the Baylor offense that Washington ran effectively against New Orleans last week.
- Dallas (-3) over Seattle - I don't know why this line isn't higher. I know that given the home field advantage this really makes Dallas a six point favorite, but doesn't it feel like it should be higher after what we saw last week for both of these teams?
- Jets (+6) over Pittsburgh - it was only one week, but until the Jets show they aren't that good, or the Steelers prove they aren't too old, I've got to take the points for the road dog here.
- Tennessee (+6) over San Diego (Charger straight up) - a second hedge, but one I don't feel much of anything about. How's that for saying "I wouldn't bet on this game if you gave me your money to do it"?
Sunday Night Football
- San Francisco (-7) over Detroit - The Lions barely escaped last week against the Rams. Meanwhile, the 49ers thumped Green Bay convincingly. Furthermore, Harbaugh is the hot head to pick in the coaching matchup. Again, I wish I wasn't working all day Sunday so I could live blog the handshake here.
Monday Night Football
- Atlanta (-3) over Denver - I'll give Atlanta the benefit of the doubt here, but Michael Turner looked washed up last week, and Peyton looked like the Peyton of pre-neck surgery. This really is a toss up in my mind, which is why the line is where it is.
Enjoy football everyone! Please, do it for me :-)
Anyway, a reminder that I pull the lines right from ESPN.com on the scoreboard page. Before I dive into the week 2 picks, last week I went:
- 7 and 9 against the spread
- 8 and 8 straight up.
Not the best start, but something manageable to build on for the rest of the year.
On to this week's picks:
- Chicago (+6) over Green Bay (Chicago straight up) - Cutler to Green Bay secondary: "enjoy Brandon Marshall: try playing physical with him." I'm generally not in favor of too much trash talking when the opponent has owned your jock (literally, I think the Packers have owned Jay's jock since he came over from Denver). I'm going to take this as not so quiet confidence rather than being overzealous. Either way, I'll be at work all night so I'll have to get updates via the cell phone. HUGE bummer. Thursday night NFL games are stupid.
Sunday early games
- Bills (-3) over Chiefs - I'm already regretting my preseason predictions for both of these teams. A special thanks Chan Gailey and Romeo Crennel for only taking one week to remind me why they are bad coaches. Are the Jets and the Falcons that good, or were these teams that bad? Either way, I'll drink the CJ Spiller Kool-Aid for one week at least... while I start him on my fantasy team.
- Cincinnati (-7) over Cleveland - One week after Baltimore showed the Bengals how they play football in the big boys league they get Brandon Weeden (he of the 5.1 QB rating). It's like comfort food, right? The logic here is simple: Cincinnati can't be as bad as they looked last week, but Cleveland easily can.
- Indianapolis (+2) over Minnesota - I think Andrew Luck will be motivated after all the RG3 talk he's hearing this week. Minnesota has a good pass rush, and Peterson looked fine last week, but Luck has the ability and will put it all together a number of weeks this year. I believe this may be one of them.
- Oakland (-3) over Miami - Yes, I think Ryan Tannehill his that bad. Look up Kyle Boller for my favorite comparison. Still, with the whole "west coast team coming east" thing it would make me feel a whole lot better if this line were under the field goal line.
- New England (-14) over Arizona - Check please!
- Tampa (+9) over NY Giants (Giants straight up) - I didn't do so hot with my hedges last week, but I'll try to hedge the Giants again and see if I have any more luck. I liked what I read about the Bucs defense last week, and I didn't like what I saw out of the Giants against Dallas.
- Ravens (+3) over Philadelphia - Did nearly losing to the Weeden disaster wake Philly up? No matter what, that Ravens offense looked even better than advertised on Monday night. Give me the points.
- Carolina (+3) over New Orleans - I tried to hedge last week with the Saints, but I fear that this may be one of those years where everything that can go wrong will go wrong for my friends in New Orleans.
- Houston (-8) over Jacksonville - is Houston ready to make the jump? If they are, this should be an easy line for them to cover.
Sunday Late Games
- Rams (+3) over Washington - I think Jeff Fisher will have a game plan to stop RGIII and the Baylor offense that Washington ran effectively against New Orleans last week.
- Dallas (-3) over Seattle - I don't know why this line isn't higher. I know that given the home field advantage this really makes Dallas a six point favorite, but doesn't it feel like it should be higher after what we saw last week for both of these teams?
- Jets (+6) over Pittsburgh - it was only one week, but until the Jets show they aren't that good, or the Steelers prove they aren't too old, I've got to take the points for the road dog here.
- Tennessee (+6) over San Diego (Charger straight up) - a second hedge, but one I don't feel much of anything about. How's that for saying "I wouldn't bet on this game if you gave me your money to do it"?
Sunday Night Football
- San Francisco (-7) over Detroit - The Lions barely escaped last week against the Rams. Meanwhile, the 49ers thumped Green Bay convincingly. Furthermore, Harbaugh is the hot head to pick in the coaching matchup. Again, I wish I wasn't working all day Sunday so I could live blog the handshake here.
Monday Night Football
- Atlanta (-3) over Denver - I'll give Atlanta the benefit of the doubt here, but Michael Turner looked washed up last week, and Peyton looked like the Peyton of pre-neck surgery. This really is a toss up in my mind, which is why the line is where it is.
Enjoy football everyone! Please, do it for me :-)
Monday, September 3, 2012
2012 NFL Week One Picks
Here are the week one picks:
1. Dallas (+4) over New York (New York straight up)
2. Chicago (-9) over Indianapolis
3. Philadelphia (-9) over Cleveland
4. St. Louis (+9) over Detroit (St. Louis to win)
5. New England (-6) over Tennessee
6. Atlanta (-3) over Kansas City
7. Minnesota (-4) over Jacksonville
8. Washington (+9) over New Orleans (New Orleans straight up)
9. Buffalo (+3) over NY Jets (Buffalo to win)
10. Miami (+11) over Houston (Houston straight up)
11. Green Bay (-5.5) over San Francisco
12. Seattle (-3) over Arizona
13. Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
14. Pittsburgh (+1) over Denver (Pittsburgh to win)
15. Cincinnati (+6) over Baltimore (Baltimore straight up)
16. San Diego (-1) over Oakland
1. Dallas (+4) over New York (New York straight up)
2. Chicago (-9) over Indianapolis
3. Philadelphia (-9) over Cleveland
4. St. Louis (+9) over Detroit (St. Louis to win)
5. New England (-6) over Tennessee
6. Atlanta (-3) over Kansas City
7. Minnesota (-4) over Jacksonville
8. Washington (+9) over New Orleans (New Orleans straight up)
9. Buffalo (+3) over NY Jets (Buffalo to win)
10. Miami (+11) over Houston (Houston straight up)
11. Green Bay (-5.5) over San Francisco
12. Seattle (-3) over Arizona
13. Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
14. Pittsburgh (+1) over Denver (Pittsburgh to win)
15. Cincinnati (+6) over Baltimore (Baltimore straight up)
16. San Diego (-1) over Oakland
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