NFL 2010 - The Pre-Season Picks

I'm busy, you're busy, and instead of giving excuses for why it has been almost two months since I blogged, here's my NFL breakdown for 2010:

- A few reminders: I always play it out to the Super Bowl this early, even when I end up looking like a complete moron (see last year's post for the details on that one). Still, I've hit on occasion (had the Steelers winning two years ago, had the Pats winning it three years ago when they went perfect until the big game, and I had Colts over Bears four years ago, a decision that, right as it was, haunts me to this day).
- I like to pick random records that sound right to put by the teams, but I don't take the time to look at the entire schedule and figure out if these records are even possible all together. I have a life. I think.
- Finally, a shout out again to Drew Brees, Tracy Porter, Sean Payton and the rest of the New Orleans Saints ... thanks for saving my sanity by beating the Colts last year. Here's to hoping someone can do it again.

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots (11-5)
2. Miami Dolphins (10-6)
3. New York Jets (7-9)
4. Buffalo Bills (3-13)

Why this will happen: The Pats are still the class of the NFL; they've won three titles in the past decade, gone 16-0 through a regular season, and have a seamless power structure. Brady is now two years removed from his catastrophic knee injury, which all the doctors will tell you is a big deal: it takes two years to fully recover from the injury he had. Still, on a not fully recovered knee, he threw for over 4200 yards with 28 TDs last year. Let's just say that if the Bears had a QB EVER who could do what Brady did last year, in what people are saying was the "beginning of the end" for the man, I would be overjoyed. So, until further notice, I pick Brady and the Pats. As for the rest of the division, Miami has a young QB with more weapons this year, as well as a solid running game, solid offensive line, and solid defense. The NY Jets have all the hype in the world, and 73% of the NFL's big egos. Does anyone other than me remember that the Jets were only 9-7 last year, and needed the Colts and Bengals to lay down in concurrent games to even make the playoffs? Signing Revis was huge, but it still doesn't change the fact that the Jets (and the national media) seem to think this team was a dynamo last year. They weren't. As for the Bills, they are hunting the top pick in the draft, and I am just hoping that Fred Jackson gets more carries than C.J. Spiller, for fantasy purposed.

Why this won't happen: Brady gets hurt, the Pats D can't get to the QB, Mark Sanchez makes "the jump" a year early, LaDanian Tomlinson isn't washed up after all, Chad Henne craps the bed, and Buffalo ... well, they'd still finish last even if all that happened. Sorry Bills fans.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Why this will happen: Pittsburgh will have the number one defense in the league this year if Polamalu stays healthy, and they will be getting Big Ben back with a good many weapons to help him. Rashard Mendenhall will make the jump this year, and even with a porous offensive line the Steelers will reassert themselves as the top team in the AFC North. Baltimore has a good chance to stop this from happening, but big WRs usually struggle when changing teams, and Ed Reed is not healthy, which hurts the defense a great deal. Cincinnati has all kinds of warning flags for me: a QB who has looked progressively more washed up with every year, a RB who has no heart and poor secondary numbers, two big mouthed diva WRs, and a coach who nobody is sure is actually good. They have a good defense, but so do the other two teams, only their offense is much more suspect. Cleveland should be more competitive this year in theory, but Jake Delhomme's Corpse is a rough person to prop up as your starting QB. In fact, just typing his name made me take their projected record from 6-10 to 4-12.

Why this won't happen: Cincinnati's offense explodes with the TO-Ocho connection, Baltimore is the juggernaut people say they are, and Big Ben's life, and subsequently his game, is devastated by the public telling of his sexcapades in the same way Eldrick's was.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
2. Houston Texans (11-5)
3. Tennessee Titans (8-8)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)

Why this will happen: Because God likes to spite me. Also because Peyton Manning is one of the greatest regular season QBs of all time. Also because the Colts have become like a bad horror movie: every time you think they are dead you walk away, fail to finish the deed, then they come back and maul you. Someone needs to cut their head off, but looking at this group I'm not sure anyone is capable of it. The Texans are loaded with talent all over the field, but have shown time and again that they don't have the stones in the fourth quarter (seriously, if I have to watch one more game where the Texans have the Colts down but don't finish them I think I'm going to cry). Houston will be even better with Arian Foster at RB, but I just don't think Matt Schaub has the killer instinct; he plays all the time like Peyton plays in big games. As for Tennessee, Vince Young still does nothing for me, and so even though Chris Johnson is amazing, and even though the Titans went 8-2 down the stretch last year, I don't see them making the jump with Vince. Jacksonville is in a similar boat with David Garrard, only they have a worse D. It's a tough division all around, but all the teams still fear Peyton, which is why he will continue to have his way with them.

Why this won't happen: God looks down and says "Mike, you've lived through the sports fan's equivalent of the Book of Job. You had it good, and were faithful to your teams thanks to Michael Jordan and Bobby Knight. I decided to test you, and so the Jerry's ran MJ out of town, and Miles Brand dispersed with the General. Still you were faithful. So I tested you again, and gave you 2001, 2005 and 2006 with the Bears. I gave you 2003, 2007 and 2008 with the Cubs. I gave you the Hoosiers in the National Title Game. I gave you the Bulls nearly signing Kobe, then LeBron or Wade. I gave you Eric Gordon at Indiana, and I gave you a winning year for IU football. But then I really put the screws down, and I gave you a Red Sox, then Cardinals, the White Sox World Series wins. I gave you Kobe winning multiple rings. I gave you Duke winning national titles, Purdue becoming the top basketball team in the Big Ten, and above all else, I gift wrapped a Super Bowl for Peyton. Through it all you stuck with your teams and your convictions. Now I will give you Peyton abruptly retiring, and the Colts going 1-15."

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Okay, I'm back.

AFC West

1. Oakland Raiders (9-7)
2. San Diego Chargers (8-8)
3. Denver Broncos (7-9)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

Why this will happen: This may look crazy, but stick with me for a moment: Oakland will have a really tough defense, and a decent running game. They have great special teams, and thus the ability to control field position. And now they have a QB who can manage a game, with talent around him (albeit really really RAW talent). If you couple this with how badly San Diego seems to want to blow this division, it makes some sense that another team would jump in. The Chargers seriously approached this offseason saying "I think we'll draft a promising young back (good idea!) but to counter it we'll keep our choke-artist of a kicker, and piss off our cornerstone left tackle and WR so they don't play. That'll help Philip Rivers for sure!" Jason Campbell is easily equal to Kyle Orton, and both looked better than Matt Cassell last year. The Raiders D is better. That's why this weak division will go this way.

Why this won't happen: I just picked the Raiders. Seriously. ANYTHING could be an explanation for why this won't happen. It just makes sense to me.

NFC EAST

1. Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
2. New York Giants (10-6)
3. Washington Redskins (8-8)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)

Why this will happen: This is a tough division, but Dallas has so much firepower that it's hard to imagine them dropping the ball, so to speak. New York will improve because their defense won't be as bad as it was last year. Washington will be middle of the road, and could be better if they didn't have a group of running backs who appear washed up in ever sense of the word. Philly fans may not want to admit it, but McNabb at least was a proven commodity; Kolb is the exact opposite of that. Another interesting thing about this division is the fact that two teams (New York and Washington) have accomplished coaches who you wouldn't mind running your team, while the other two (Dallas and Philly) have god-awful coaches who you would trust to do middle management. Still, talent trumps in the regular season, which is why it'll shake out this way.

Why this won't happen: Wade Phillips outweighs his talent, Washington takes advantage of their schedule to swing a few more wins north and into the playoffs, and the New York Giants win the division. I could see it going that way as well.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
2. Chicago Bears (10-6)
3. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
4. Detroit Lions (6-10)

Why this will happen: Green Bay has an electric offense, but had major defensive struggles last year, and didn't really change much. Talent still trumps, and their ability to light it up will put them in every game. Chicago will win just enough to allow the ownership to extend Lovie, because that's what happens. Minnesota is in for a hard fall because Brett's ankle and heart are neither one game ready; the NFC championship game last year killed him in more ways than one. Detroit will be a tough team next year.

Why this won't happen: Chicago implodes, Green Bay runs their win total up to 13 or 14, Minnesota grits out ten wins on talent alone, and the Lions get to .500. Lovie is gone, Bill Cowher is in.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints (14-2)
2. Carolina Panthers (11-5)
3. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

Why this will happen: New Orleans figured out how to play defense last year, and if they can continue that they will remain an imposing team to play. Brees is as comfortable in the pocket as any QB I've ever seen, and they can run the ball as well. Just boatloads of talent on Bourbon Street. Beyond that, I believe in Matt Moore in Carolina, and their running game is also tough. It's John Fox's last year, and a playoff run will help him solidify his resume for free agency this offseason. Atlanta has talent, but is still too young ... I just don't buy it yet. Tampa is two years away.

Why this won't happen: Since this division was created no team has won it back to back years. That pattern alone tells me that something bad will happen to the Saints.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
2. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
3. St. Louis Rams (5-11)
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-12)

Why this will happen: this division, along with the AFC West, is super weak, but San Fran has set themselves up as a potential power. They can run, they play awesome D, they invested in the offensive line, they have a dynamite talent at WR (Michael Crabtree) and at TE (Vernon Davis). It all comes down to Alex Smith. If he finally makes the jump, so do they. If he is even as good as last year, they are the division winner. If he regresses, they are in trouble. Arizona is going to be a mess one week, then fine the next, at least if you buy Derek Anderson (not sure I do). Seattle is going to be sneaky bad, and St. Louis might just be ready to make the jump from 1 or 2 wins to 4 or 5 wins.

Why this won't happen: Maybe Seattle is a little better, but baring Derek Anderson finally finding accuracy (not likely) or Alex Smith completely falling apart (not probable) I feel the most confident in this pick.

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Houston Texans
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Carolina Panthers
6. New York Giants

Wild Card Weekend

Houston Texans over Oakland Raiders
New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens

Green Bay Packers over New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers over Carolina Panthers

Divisional Weekend

Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers over Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints over Green Bay Packers

Conference Championships Weekend

Pittsburgh Steelers over Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints over San Francisco 49ers

Superbowl

New Orleans Saints over Pittsburgh Steelers


Conclusion

And so, in the end, I think I believe in the Saints, as well as Pittsburgh's defense and ground game. Either way, it's great to have football back!