NFL Week 11 Picks

Indianapolis (-3) over Tennessee 

Chicago (-3) over Baltimore

NY Jets (-2) over Buffalo

Cleveland (+6) over Cincinnati 

Philadelphia (-5) over Washington

Detroit (-3) over Pittsburgh

Atlanta (+1) over Tampa Bay

Arizona (-9) over Jacksonville

Oakland (+9) over Houston - Houston straight up

San Diego (-2) over Miami

New Orleans (-3) over San Francisco 

NY Giants (-4) over Green Bay

Seattle (-13) over Minnesota 

Kansas City (+10) over Denver - Denver straight up

New England (+3) over Carolina 

Last week against the spread: 7-7

Last week straight up: 8-6

Season against the spread: 58-76-7

Season straight up: 87-60

Week 10 NFL Picks

Yuck. I normally don't look at my picks mid week, and I usually can't remember who I picked, but last week I was curious for some reason so I checked my picks after the first slate of games Sunday. And... yuck. The result: 1-6 against the spread after the early games. I then went 1-3 in the afternoon games, and finished up with 0-1-1 in the Sunday/Monday night games. Drum roll please:

Last week against the spread: 2-10-1
Last week straight up: 5-8
Season against the spread: 51-69-7
Season straight up: 79-54

Well ... that wasn't very good. At least the Bears beat my brother's Packers. Of course, he exacted revenge on me by beating my by 30 points in our fantasy football matchup ... when I would have outscored anyone else in the league by 20 points. Anyway, the picks:

Thursday Night Game

Washington (-1) over Minnesota - Well, we're off to a great start here...

Sunday early games

Cincinnati (-1.5) over Baltimore - I'm tired of saying "Baltimore has to turn it on now to salvage their season." Now that I'm picking against them the can actually do that.

Seattle (-6) over Atlanta - I took the Falcons plus nine last week against the Panthers and they couldn't cover that.

Chicago (PK) over Detroit - "Don't stop ... believing"

Philadelphia (+1) over Green Bay - Letter from my brother to his man Brett: "please come back ... we need you now more than ever. Did you see what those mean old Bears did to Aaron? He's just not built like you are. We need you Brett. Hell I need you. I can't even function without you. Please?"

Tennessee (-13) over Jacksonville - The Jaguars screw me every week. I take the points, they get blown out. I lay the points, they play just close enough. Screw you Jacksonville.

NY Giants (-7.5) over Oakland - If Eli can't pass on the Raiders the week after Nick freaking Foles threw seven TDs against them like they were a Madden defense set on "Rookie Mode" ...

Indianapolis (-9.5) over St. Louis - The Colts can't possibly lose this year, right? They were supposed to regress, but they are unbeatable. (Note: jinx is in effect).

Sunday Late Games

Pittsburgh (-3) over Buffalo - why not?

San Francisco (-6.5) over Carolina - I think this is the week that we start to realize that San Francisco hasn't lost to anyone other than Seattle and Indy.

Arizona (-2.5) over Houston - Am I crazy for liking Case Keenum?

Denver (-7) over San Diego - Let's go Peyton, Let's GO!

Sunday Night Game

New Orleans (-7) over Dallas - I hope the Saints win the NFC if the Bears can't ... er, when the Bears can't.

Monday Night Game 

Tampa Bay (+3) over the Miami Incognitos - Hard to believe people are even a little surprised that stuff like this goes on in NFL locker rooms. Sad to see that the other Dolphins are coming out in favor of the bully.

Week 9 NFL Picks

Last week I just threw the picks out there in a matter of moments. The weeks prior I gave the picks serious thought and had a terrible record. Did the shotgun approach to the picks last week help?

Last week against the spread: 7-6
Last week straight up: 10-3

Well, at least it stopped the bleeding. This week I'll give it more time, but I need to learn some lessons from last week: gut instincts work well.

Thursday Night Game:

Cincinnati (-3) over Miami - Thursday night football sucks, and may be the work of El Diablo. Also, Miami has now lost four straight games, and Cincinnati just destroyed the Jets. All things equal this should be a pretty easy game to pick. But, again, Thursday night football = awful idea, possibly of diabolic intent.

Sunday Early Game:

Kansas City (-3) over Buffalo - Cleveland's tough game with Jason Campbell at the helm tells me all I need to know about KC's long term prospects. But they should manage to win this game.

Dallas (-12) over Minnesota - I'm sending this one out to Leslie Frazier's inner dialogue: "Put me out of my misery. I'd do it for you, would you do it for me?" So my two thoughts on this game are: Dallas needs this win after their collapse last week, and I imagine Leslie Frazier likes Soul Asylum.

St. Louis (+3) over Tennessee - I feel like Tennessee may be an insy bit better, but I don't really know what to make of St. Louis. Bradford gets knocked out for the season and then they play Seattle super tough. I guess I'll grab the points and hope for the best.

New Orleans (-7) over NY Jets - Doesn't it feel like New Orleans should be able to win by more than a TD after watching the Jets not even show up against the Bengals last week?

San Diego (-1) over Washington - I'm sending this one out to Mike Shanahan's inner dialogue: "It seems no one can help me now, I'm in too deep, there's no way out. This time I have really led myself astray." So my two thoughts for this game are: I can't believe the Bears blew that game against this awful Washington team, and I imagine Mike Shanahan has no idea who Soul Asylum is, but he's on a Runaway Train to the unemployment line (see what I did there?).

Atlanta (+9) over Carolina - Wait that doesn't look even remotely right. The Falcons were this close to the Super Bowl last year, and now they can get nine points against Carolina. I need to delve deeper. The Falcons have lost five games; only last week against the Cardinals did they lose by more than nine points. The Panthers have won four games; in all four wins they have won by more than nine points... but they also got drubbed by the same Cardinals team that just drubbed the Falcons. I will go with Atlanta here under the premise that I need to listen to my gut... but if Carolina kills Atlanta I need to consider that Carolina might actually be sneaky good.

Sunday Late Games:

Oakland (-1) over Philadelphia - I don't ask for much, but can either Foles or Vick stay upright enough to not completely kill McCoy's value the same way Doug Martin and C.J. Spiller's value has gone in the tank this year?

Seattle (-17) over Tampa Bay - This is a large spread but Tampa Bay is a really bad team. I'm just hoping for garbage time yards (and a TD?) for Vincent Jackson.

Baltimore (-3) over Cleveland - Coming off the bye week the Ravens need to get things righted if they aren't going to have the embarrassing Super Bowl Champ to missing the playoff fall.

New England (-7) over Pittsburgh- and just like that ... I'm off the Steeler's bandwagon.

Sunday Night Game:

Indianapolis (-3) over Houston - My AFC champion pick of the Texans isn't looking so hot right now. My pick for the Colts to miss the playoffs at 8-8 isn't looking any better.

Monday Night Game:

Green Bay (-12) over Chicago - I want to take the Bears here, but our defense is so bad that I think that even if we score 40 they can score 53. To make this game interesting I'm going to start three Bears on my fantasy team this week. I hope the Bears beat the Pack, but I think at the end of this game I'll be crushed (since my Bears will lose) while I expect my brother to be ecstatic (since his Packers will win). Either way, go McCown, Forte and Marshall!

Season against the spread: 55-59-6
Season straight up: 74-46

Week 8 Picks

This week got away from me...

Panthers (-7) over Tampa
Detroit (-3) over Dallas
Kansas City (-9) over Cleveland
New England (-7) over Miami
New Orleans (-12) over Buffalo
NY Giants (+5) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-16) over Jacksonville
NY Jets (+7) over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh (-1) over Oakland
Denver (-13) over Washington
Atlanta (+1) over Arizona
Green Bay (-10) over Minnesota
Seattle (-13) over St. Louis

Last week against the spread: 6-9
Last week straight up: 7-8
Season against the spread: 48-53-6 (gap ... widening...)
Season straight up: 64-43

Different … But Back to Good? The POV Breakdown of Matchbox Twenty’s North

As promised, here is the first non-football post in awhile. This one was written some time ago (based on the word document time stamp it would have been 03/17/2013 ... but who's counting), but I think it's still a decent review of a good album.

1996 was a great year. The economy was on the upswing. The polarization of politics, while clearly beginning to take on its current form, was nothing compared to today (oh for the days of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America,” rather than Rand Paul’s “Hypocrisy For America”). And, of course, the Chicago Bulls were back in action, having completed a 72-10 year which culminated with their fourth NBA championship. That year also saw the release of a new band’s first album, Yourself or Someone Like You. The band, then known as Matchbox 20, had something on their side that made them seem different from much of the pop/rock scene in the mid 1990s. A friend of mine at the time, Matt, was able to put his finger on it sometime later. That something they had was angst, and it permeated the entire album.

It really shouldn’t be a major surprise that Yourself became such a popular album, anymore than it should be a surprise that the album resonated with persons in their teens and twenties during the 1996 through 2000 period that it was at its height. The album was written, in large part, by Rob Thomas, the band’s front man. Thomas was 24 at the time of the album’s release, and, by most accounts, was fairly angst filled in a relative way. A high school drop out, he was raised by his mother after his father pretty much dropped out of his life following a divorce. Thomas’s relationships weren't anything to write home about, and he focused his energy and efforts on becoming a rock star. All of this makes Thomas an every man in most respects. What set him apart was his unique ability to write songs.

Yourself began with the song “Real World,” which became a hit single off the album. This song is something of a chorus to most 24 year old's who are simply struggling to get by, and it resonated on the Top 40 charts. “Long Day,” the first official single off the album, getting rock play, was more of the same. Throughout the other singles (“3 A.M.”, “Push”, and “Back 2 Good”) a common theme is unearthed. The songs paint a picture of an individual, or individuals, who are struggling to figure something out. Whether it’s the real world continuing to hassle them, the exasperation at the end of the day, or the confusion and struggle of finding a meaningful romantic relationship, the hits off of Yourself spoke to young persons coming of age. Digging deeper into the album, and the angst gets deeper, and the feelings illuminate. Perhaps the two best songs on the album, “Kody” and “Hang”, paint this picture brilliantly. And, in the end, Matt’s breakdown still stands: Thomas sounds angry through many of the songs, and listening to the lyrics you can understand why. After five singles, Yourself or Someone Like You not only became one of the surprise contenders for the best album of the 1990s, but it also established Matchbox 20 as a force to be reckoned with.

The slow roll out of the album (released in 1996, picking up momentum in 1997, and blooming fully in 1998) afforded the band years to work on their second album without it really feeling like it took years. Thomas also nailed a mega hit in his collaboration with Carlos Santana, as “Smooth” won Thomas three Grammy Awards. By 2000 there was a good deal of build up for the Sophomore effort by the band. Now known as Matchbox Twenty, Mad Season became that 2^nd album. The first song was a great indicator of the change that had occurred in Thomas’s life in the years between 1996 and 2000; entitled “Angry,” the lyrics state “it’s good that I’m not angry anymore.” If only that was the truth. Mad Season lacked the edge of the band’s first effort, and it showed.

Of course, Thomas continued to be the lead writer, and his life had changed considerably since 1996. Now married, and happily so, Thomas was 28 and much seemed much more comfortable in life. That comfort showed in the lyrics and mood of the album. The first single, “Bent,” had a bit of the attitude found on Yourself, but the rest of the album felt very different. Whereas the first album could be described as a unique blend of rock, pop and alternative, the second album felt much more straight pop. Thomas’s skills in writing a catchy song continued to be highlighted, but the album left something to be desired for many fans. The radio play for the album also paled in comparison to Yourself.

The group came together much quicker for their third effort, More Than You Think You Are. The album played with more edge than Mad Season, but seemed to lack in the lyrical department compared with both predecessors. The group then went their separate ways for awhile, and Thomas released Something to Be as a solo effort. More than anything, Something made clear that Rob Thomas was a pop writer of great skill. When the group reunited for a greatest hits compilation (which included a few new tracks) Exile on Mainstream they went on tour. It was then that I first went to see Matchbox Twenty live, in 2008.

I expected something rather lacking, as it seemed to me that every step along the way the band had lost a bit of what had made its’ first effort great. Instead, I was blown away by the energy that Thomas brought to the stage, and by how well the band played together. I thoroughly enjoyed the show, and was hopeful that the tour would bring energy to the band’s creative development, perhaps leading to a new album. More than that, I was hopeful that if there was another album, it would be worthy of being held up alongside Yourself. Instead, the band again took “time away” and Thomas released a second solo effort, Cradlesong. Honestly, I’m not even sure if I knew that he released that album before I started researching the group for the post. At the least, I can say that I, for the first time, didn’t go out and buy a new Matchbox Twenty/Rob Thomas album. And the group subsequently faded from my field of vision.

As I said when I reviewed the most recent Dave Matthews Band Album, Away From The World, I am a big believer that angst drives powerful music. My favorite Billy Joel songs seem to have been written at a time in his life when he was pretty unhappy. One album, written when he was … ahem … “seeing” Christie Brinkley, seemed to be written when Joel was particularly happy. That album, An Innocent Man happens to be one of Joel’s best selling albums. It also happens to suck. (Side note: how in the hell did Billy Joel end up … “seeing” … both Elle Macpherson and Christie Brinkley?) One day, while surfing the web I noticed that Matchbox Twenty had a new album, North, coming out in 2012. After getting it, I put it in …

… and was pleasantly surprised. The album features twelve songs, with a wide variety of feel. The first song, “Parade,” starts the album with good energy. More than anything, the bridge of the song has a 1990s Top 40 feel, giving the song a feel of a song that could have held its’ own on Yourself or Someone Like You, sort of a combination of “Real World” and “Long Day”. The next song, “She’s So Mean,” was the first single off the album, and felt a bit like a popped up version of “Girl Like That.” But the real strength of this album was how the band seemed to integrate parts of prior albums that worked with new takes on pop music. “Overjoyed,” the third song on the album and the second single released, took the slow pop approach that the group first displayed on Mad Season and shined it up a bit. Then, after three songs that can easily be compared to prior work, the band placed the song “Put Your Hands Up,” which is a bit more unique. One can almost imagine the group listening to the radio, hearing the most recent dance club pop song, and saying “I bet we can do that.” This song is a great illustration of Thomas’s ability to write pop music for whatever the occasion requires.

Track five, “Our Song,” brings my mind to some songs the Goo Goo Dolls have written in recent years, only it’s far better than anything the Goo Goo Dolls have done. It has a manic feel, pushing through the chorus time and again. The group then presents the song “I Will,” which slows the pace down and simply showcases Thomas’s voice. With simple piano and guitar plucking guiding him along, the song also serves as a bit of an intermission to the album. The next track, “English Town,” fits as the group’s attempt at a big, dark beast of a song. The transitions between the soft verse with haunting piano and the powerful choruses are like night and day. The song also feels a bit like a unique cross between a song like “Kody” and “Rest Stop.”

After the darker presentation of “English Town” the album then moves on to a simple, short, poppy song in “How Long.” The ninth track, “Radio,” plays well and takes the listener back to the time when listening to the radio was the way to find out about new music, rather than downloading the songs on iTunes or shuffling through Pandora. “The Way,” the first track without Thomas on the vocals, has the feel of an 80s song, and does the job of feeling out of place, yet somehow right. At this point, ten songs in, and without a weak link, the band only needs a solid finisher to round off the album.

The eleventh track, “Like Sugar” feels like a song off of their third album, which naturally makes it one of the weaker songs on the album. But the listener will quickly forget about this when the end track, “Sleeping at the Wheel” comes on. This song has a unique feel, almost a merging of “Leave” and “Hang.” In reality, the song provides an emphatic answer to the angst of Yourself or Someone Like You. It is the mature Matchbox Twenty (and, really, Thomas) answering the confusion and anger of youth with the resolute answer of adulthood:

And now these hands are tied
I can't help thinking
That I was in a daze, I was losing my place
I was screaming out at everything

In February 2013, the day before Valentine’s day, I went to see Matchbox Twenty a second time. My fiancé (UPDATE: she's now my wife!) got us tickets for Christmas, and so we went to a much smaller venue than the first time I saw them and settled in. As we waited for the group to take the stage, I overheard that the next day was Rob Thomas’s birthday. His 41^st birthday. And I realized that, for me, he had been pretty much stuck in my mind. In 1996. When the first album was written he was 24, angst filled, and unsure about where he was headed. Now, at 40, he writes this most recent album, and life is different. And what is he, and what is the band? Thomas is one of the best pop writers alive today, and Matchbox Twenty is one vehicle which he uses to get that music out. During the show, after playing “Real World” Thomas announced “we’re going to stay in 1996 for the next few songs” and the crowd, predictably, went nuts. We all wanted to stay in 1996 as well. But the band wasn’t going to play Yourself or Someone Like You front to back, and a unique thing happened: the biggest crowd responses were for the songs off the first album, but the songs off of North seemed to register next in terms of popularity (with the possible exception of “Bent” and, perhaps, “Bed of Lies”). And, so, having taken it all it, I can give the following assessment of the album:

North is not Yourself or Someone Like You. It is different, and it illustrates Thomas’s ability to write a variety of pop songs and styles. But it is comfortable to a Matchbox Twenty fan, and it plays well front to back. And, in a way, it might be seen as an excellent merging of a more mature Matchbox Twenty with their angst filled past. Thomas (and company) may not be angry anymore, but they may have also reached their musical apex. And they still put on one hell of a show.

Album Breakdown:

                                  Parade – 5/5

                   She’s So Mean – 4/5

                   Overjoyed – 3/5

                   Our Song – 3.5/5

                    I Will – 4.5/5

                   English Town – 4.5/5

                 How Long – 3.5/5

                  Radio – 3.5/5

1               The Way – 3/5

1                Like Sugar – 3/5

                Sleeping At The Wheel – 5/5

Total: 3.8/5 album rating

NFL Week 7 Picks - Quick Hits Edition

I'm back with the quick hits, but just to give an idea of the posts I have in my head, I do plan on doing some music reviews, some book reviews, and perhaps even a break down of how the Republicans decided to take a stand that was guaranteed to lose them ground in the polls ... then backed down before getting anything for the stand when they started to lose ground in the polls. If politics were poker, Obama just called the House Republican's bluff, and the got caught with nothing.

Anyway, on to the picks (as always, screw you Thursday Night Football ... you suck):

Thursday Night Game

Seattle (-5) over Arizona - Seattle should cover this, but Arizona's defense is sneaky good. Imagine if they had a QB with a pulse...

Sunday Early Games

Chicago (-1) over Washington - I'm as down on the Bears as can be: we can't rush the passer, we don't run consistently, Rex Cutler ... er, Jay Cutler ... is a turnover waiting to happen. But Washington's been really really bad this year. Much like last week, we better win this game if we have a prayer of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (+9) over Atlanta - is whoever set this line aware of what's been happening in Atlanta the last few weeks? Does Atlanta even have a wide receiver on their active roster?

Cincinnati (+3) over Detroit - hey look, two undisciplined teams. If there was a line to bet on Suh getting fined by the end of this game, I would be on the yes.

Miami (-9) over Buffalo - This line seems high even with the Buffalo QB situation. But I'm hoping it will coax a shocking turnaround game out of CJ Spiller if I pick against the Bills.

New England (-4) over NY Jets - That last Brady drive last week was a thing of beauty to behold if you are even a small NFL fan. My wife (who enjoys football) was blown away. An all time great doing all time great things.

Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas - A chance for my pick of Philly to win the division to take a major step in the right direction.

St. Louis (+7) over Carolina - It seems like the Carolina Cam's have figured a thing or two out, but Minnesota is really bad. It seems like the St. Louis Bradford's have done the same, but Houston's self-combustion last week may have had more to do with that. I have a hard time believing either of these teams should be favored by a full TD against anyone but the Giants and the Jags. Okay, maybe the ViQueens as well.

San Diego (-9) over Jacksonville - covering the spread against Denver last week brings this line down to less than ten point? I don't gamble,but I like this line enough that if I did I would jump on it. Also, when you have to think "I could really use a big game from Chad Henne here" and got really excited to pick up Case Keenum when it was announced he was starting this week for the Texans... yeah, your fantasy season might be over.

Sunday Late Games

San Francisco (-4) over Tennessee - San Fran has a chance to quietly become an under the radar team. People seem to have forgotten about them, but they are 4-2...

Cleveland (+12) over Green Bay - Green Bay is without two of their three wide receivers, going against a tough defense and a team that has proven to be a tough out. And they are laying 12? I believe that Brandon Weeden will blow this game late, so I'll take Green Bay straight up, but that's a big line for the Pack to cover.

Kansas City (-7) over Houston - I might have picked up Keenum, but I am not starting him against this KC defense.

Pittsburgh (-1) over Baltimore - After this game there will quietly be rumbles that maybe the Steelers are back. People would be better to focus on how over paid Flacco is, and how crazy of a run that was for the Ravens last year.

Sunday Night Game

Denver (-7) over Indianapolis - I encourage you to read all of Jim Irsay's comments on Peyton Manning. That man is a moron. I should write a post sometime about my gradual appreciation of Peyton Manning, but one thing that's always been true is the MJ adage "don't tug on super man's cape." Irsay is an idiot. I'm really glad he's not running my team. He needs to have someone censor him.

Monday Night Game

Minnesota (+4) over the NY Giants - This game is awful.

Last week against the spread: 3-9-3 (that's probably the worst I've ever done. No comment)
Last week straight up: 10-5 (So it was just a bad week against the spread. Well done Vegas)
Season against the spread: 42-44-6 (Woof.)
Season straight up: 57-35 (that feels better)

NFL Week Six Picks - When Thursday Night Football Goes From Sucking To Being Un'Bear'able

Here we are again, only it's that much worse. Thursday night is my late night, so I never get to watch the spectacle that is the Thursday Night Football (how many players can we hurt) Game of the Week. Normally, that's a good thing. Tonight is the one night a year that it isn't. My Bears, fresh off of two losses (one expected (Saints) and one disappointing (El Lions)) get to play in the Thursday Night Football (Roger Goodell and the Owners are money grubbing sycophants) Game of the Week.

A few notes on my Bears before we delve into the picks for this week:
- Jay Cutler has lost himself about ten million dollars per year off his next contract at this point. He continues to be sloppy with the ball, makes stupid throws, and seems to have no sense of where the pressure is coming from. That's not to demonize him: he's still a top 15 to top 20 QB in the world, and he's far better than our other options. That's just to say that he hasn't taken the jump, and seems extremely unlikely to at this point in his career. And that ten mil a year? I figure his best case scenario was that he looks great in a new offense, limits his mistakes, and can easily land a deal that averages 20 million per year (if Flacco can do it so can Jay). His start to the year opened up that discussion. The last two games have halted that discussion.
- To directly quote Hub Arkush, "I think it will surprise you that the Bears are tied for number six in the NFL in yards per carry, and are in the top half in total rushing yards in the NFL." Well, yes Hub that does surprise me. But facts are facts. The Bears, again to follow Hub's reasoning, need to be smarter about when to run and how to run. They do well moving to the outside on stretch plays, do well on delay draws that force the secondary to think pass, and they under utilize Michael Bush. Let's run on the Giants tonight boys.
- Brandon Marshall needs to get open more often, but if we can keep going to Jeffrey and Bennett (Martellus, not that pass dropping joke Earl) then he will eventually get open.
- I think it's time to put the DJ Williams experiment to rest and give Jon Bostic a chance in the middle.
- All the injuries to the D-Line mean our defense will likely be increasingly toothless moving forward. If Julius Peppers doesn't  have a major resurgence soon he won't be playing in Chicago next year.
- I still think the most likely outcome of this year for the Bears is 9-7 or 10-6, missing the playoffs, and then cleaning house (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman gone on D, Cutler gone on offense). They don't want to invest in an aging team that has the upside of a first round playoff exit. Nor should they. Look to the Northside of Chicago gentlemen. That's how to work on rebuilding a team.

On to the picks:

Thursday Night Football (Really, Really Sucks) Game of the Week

Chicago (-8) over the NY Giants - Thursday night football games tend to be really screwy, so I feel approximately 1000% less confident in this pick than I would if it was your standard 1pm EST start time. That said, the Bears must show the ability to handle a team like the Giants if they want to have a shot at the playoffs moving forward.

Sunday Early Games

Cincinnati (-8) over Buffalo - I am really tempted to take the Bills, but not with them starting who knows who at QB, not with Spiller still injured (thanks for that help Fantasy Gods), not with Steve Johnson in the witness protection program (wait, he's not in witness protection? Where is he?), and not with the Bengals realizing what their future was last week with their grind it out win over the New England Bradys.

Cleveland (+1) over Detroit - there is strange momentum coming out of Cleveland right now, and this pick is made expecting Calvin Johnson to miss the game, which will enable the front seven of the Browns to really target on Reggie Bush. If Johnson plays, then I think that the Lions will win.

Oakland (+10) over Kansas City - and so I ask myself, is Oakland closer to Tennessee, Dallas and Philadelphia than it is to the NY Giants and the Jags? Strangely I think so. Why does that matter? Because the first three teams all would have covered a ten point spread in their games with KC, whereas the last two would not have. I think KC wins straight up, but I think Oakland covers.

Minnesota (-1) over Carolina - How is Ron Rivera still the head coach in Carolina? How is it possible that the Vikings have three QBs who were unquestioned starters week one last year (Ponder, Cassel and Freeman) but still don't have any QBs? How is it possible that I've typed this many words about this game?

Pittsburgh (+2) over the NY Jets - The Steelers are rested after a bye week, and the Jets have to be coming down from an emotional high after murdering the Falcon's season on Monday night. The Steelers have to win sometime, right?

Philadelphia (-2) over Tampa Bay - Tampa's D should actually keep the Chip Kelly offense (vastly overrated as it may be) in check. But the Tampa offense is starting Mike Glennon. I don't ask for much, but could Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy both have big games here? Thanks.

Green Bay (-2) over Baltimore - I don't know what to make of either of these teams, but this game should tell us something. Flacco is vastly overpaid, of that I'm sure (and I have been sure of that since he signed that contract). I'm not starting the Ravens D this week just to be safe.

Houston (-9) over St. Louis - I mean, the Rams were the cure for what ailed the 49ers, right?

Sunday Late Games

Denver (-27) over Jacksonville - boy that game between Denver and Dallas was a ton of fun: to watch, for my fantasy teams (starting Manning in one and Romo in the other) and for my Uncle (watching the CowGirls throw it away after playing over their heads for the entire game). I think this one will be fun for my fantasy team still.

Seattle (-15) over Tennessee - I actually wrote down the Titans until I remembered that a) Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting for them, and b) Seattle was probably pretty motivated after blowing that game to Indy last week.

New Orleans (+3) over New England - I don't see any way that the Pats keep up with the Saints, although if they do I hope it is because of a huge return by Rob Gronkowski (yes, again, on my fantasy team).

Arizona (+12) over San Francisco - I'll take the 49ers straight up, but their offense has not looked near good enough for me to want to take them minus twelve.

Sunday Night Game

Dallas (-6) over Washington - after playing Denver this game should feel much better for the Romo's.

Monday Night Game
Colts (+3) over San Diego - I'm tired of picking against the Colts and losing. I'll still be rooting against the Colts. In other words: time to begin hedging bets.

Last week against the spread: 8-6 (started strong, ended weak)
Last week straight up: 9-5
Season against the spread: 39-35-3
Season straight up: 47-30

Until next time: Thursday Night Football is an evil creation by money hungry selfish owners ... and it sucks.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Well, let's start, once again, with the end of the post at the start:

Last week against the spread: 7-8
Last week straight up: 7-8
Season against the spread: 31-29-3
Season straight up: 38-25

So ... yeah, all that breakdown stuff didn't really help out too much. Looking at last weeks games, here were the big eye openers:

- Baltimore losing to Buffalo and Cincinnati losing to Cleveland makes me wonder big time about the toughness of the AFC North. A quarter of the way through the year and we are sitting here with Baltimore and Cincinnati tied at 2-2 with Cleveland.
- Pittsburgh losing to Minnesota makes me wonder if they wouldn't be better off tanking the rest of the year to get a high pick. Trading Big Ben for something right now would also be a strong move ... if the Steelers management can stomach rebuilding. There are plenty of years of evidence that this isn't the route they will take. Keep in mind this is a franchise that has had exactly three coaches since 1969 (Noll, Cowher and Tomlin). They like to have consistency, and they like to keep their team in some level of playoff contention every year. In fact, consider the teams record each year since hiring Noll:

• 1969: 1-13 (the start of the Noll years)
• 1970: 5-9
• 1971: 6-8
• 1972: 11-3 (Playoffs)
• 1973: 10-4 (Playoffs)
• 1974: 10-3-1 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1975: 12-2 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1976: 10-4 (Playoffs)
• 1977: 9-5 (Playoffs)
• 1978: 14-2 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1979: 12-4 (Won Super Bowl)
• 1980: 9-7
• 1981: 8-8
• 1982: 6-3 (Playoffs)
• 1983: 10-6 (Playoffs)
• 1984: 9-7 (Playoffs)
• 1985: 7-9
• 1986: 6-10
• 1987: 8-7
• 1988: 5-11
• 1989: 9-7
• 1990: 9-7
• 1991: 7-9 (Noll's Last Year)
• 1992: 11-5 (Playoffs) (Cowher's 1st Year)
• 1993: 9-7 (Playoffs)
• 1994: 12-4 (Playoffs)
• 1995: 11-5 (Lost Super Bowl)
• 1996: 10-6 (Playoffs)
• 1997: 11-5 (Playoffs)
• 1998: 7-9 
• 1999: 6-10
• 2000: 9-7
• 2001: 13-3 (Playoffs)
• 2002: 10-5-1 (Playoffs)
• 2003: 6-10
• 2004: 15-1 (Playoffs)
• 2005: 11-5 (Won Super Bowl)
• 2006: 8-8 (Cowher's Last Year)
• 2007: 10-6 (Playoffs) (Tomlin's First Year)
• 2008: 12-4 (Won Super Bowl)
• 2009: 9-7
• 2010: 12-4 (Lost Super Bowl) (Year Gregg Came Out As Packers Fan)
• 2011: 12-4 (Playoffs)
• 2012: 8-8

- Okay, now that I typed all that out, what does it tell us about the Steelers? First, this 0-4 start has them in line for some historically bad football by Pittsburgh standards. 1969 bad. Noll's first year bad. Since that 1-13 year in year one of the Noll regime, the Steelers have had four years with double digit losses: 1986 (ten losses), 1988 (eleven losses), 1999 (ten losses) and 2003 (ten losses). At the rate they are going this year (and, the way they should keep going if they want a good chance at rebuilding quickly) they will blow past 11 losses. Compare that with the twenty one years that they have had double digit wins in that same period, and ... wait a minute, why in the hell am I Bears fan again?!?!?!? Sorry, that just came out. I'll try to stay focused. So, point one is that this year is historic for this franchise that has made the playoffs twenty six times since 1970. Point two is that Mike Tomlin is almost assuredly safer in his job than any other coach this side of New England. It would be one of the biggest shocks in modern sports if they let him go given their history of standing by coaches through down periods. The third point: can you imagine a coach with as mediocre a record as Noll had in the 1980s lasting longer than 3 years in today's NFL? Yeah, I can't either. 

- Another team that would benefit from tanking for a high pick: the NY Giants. You've gotta figure that Coughlin is safe with his two Super Bowl rings ... but he doesn't coach in Pittsburgh. 

- Somehow New England is 4-0. And New Orleans exposed the Dolphins as being a potential "good-bad team candidate" for this year. 

So, with these things in mind, on to the picks:

Thursday Night Game

Buffalo (+4) over Cleveland - First, THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SUCKS. Seriously, is there any redeeming quality to this money grab? While you are giving that some thought, read this article about a new book coming out, remind yourself that the NFL ownership is likely to drive the league to ruin over the next 20 years due to concussion and injury issues they've tried to sweep under the rug, and then ask yourself what it means that we (myself very much included) love the NFL so much. Thursday Night Football is an example of the brazen lack of concern for the players health on behalf of the owners. Also, these teams are scary similar: underrated Ds, disappointing running games, huge question marks that are capable of big games at QB, rookie head coaches. Idea: can we combine the teams together and split home games 50/50 between Buffalo and Cleveland? Who says no to that first? (Hint: not the three remaining Bills fans). 

Sunday Early Games

New Orleans (-1) over Chicago - Um ... did anyone watch the Jay Cutler melt down against Detroit? Yeah ... this Saints D is much better than Detroit's D, and the Saints offense would be the best in the league if Peyton wasn't doing historically silly things in Denver. I'm fully prepared to watch my Bears get taken to the wood shed Sunday. 

New England (+1) over Cincinnati - Brady is getting in rhythm with his WRs and will get Gronk and Amendola back someday soon. Cincinnati losing last week to Cleveland makes me unsure what to do with them. 

Green Bay (-8) over Detroit - this line is way too high, but the Pack has had two weeks to plan for this game, and they need this win to not fall dangerously behind in the division. 

Kansas City (-3) over Tennessee - with Locker out I'll go with KC ... but they've got to lose sometime right? Their D is fierce, Charles is insane right now, but Alex Smith looks like a rich man's Trent Dilfer. That can't last forever, right? Right?

Seattle (-3) over Indianapolis - I just hope the Colts lose. That's my only thought on this one. 

St. Louis (-13) over Jacksonville - this line is insane. St. Louis is not a good team, and yet they are favored by nearly two TDs. This shouldn't happen in the NFL. And yet, until the Jags prove they can score, I cannot pick them. Next week they play Denver. I would take Denver -35. 

Baltimore (+3) over Miami - I think the Saints showed cracks in the Dolphins attack, and I think Baltimore is going to be an up and down team this year... and this is the week for the up. Also, I could use a good week from Joe Flacco in fantasy football ... you know, if you're listening Joe. 

Philadelphia (+1) over NY Giants - well, since I picked both these teams to win 10 games or more, seeing them at a combined 1-7 through four weeks is a bit disheartening. For the Eagles to have any shot of rebounding to win the division (also my pick) they have to win here. The Giants have been just bad enough to make me believe that can happen. 

Sunday Late Games

Arizona (+2) over Carolina - Carolina shouldn't be favored on the road unless they are playing Jacksonville.

Denver (-9) over Dallas - Peyton is playing better than ever. How is this possible? One answer: Steroids. Second answer: he's an android. 

Sunday Night Game

San Francisco (-6) over Houston - both these teams really need this game. I think Houston is starting to lose confidence in Schaub, so I'll lean towards San Fran. 

Sunday "Whoops, the A's made the playoffs so we have to start this at nearly midnight in the East" game

San Diego (-4) over Oakland - I won't be staying up for this one

Monday Night Game

Atlanta (-11) over NY Jets - this is a good line. I've gotta believe the Falcons want a statement game after a 1-3 start. 

NFL Week 4 Picks

Well, let's start with the end first:

Last week against the spread: 6-9-1
Last week straight up: 8-8
Season against the spread: 24-21-3
Season straight up: 31-17

So ... yeah, last week was awful. Week two wasn't much better, but last week was one of the worst weeks I've had picking games. To give a comparison, last year this was my total record at the time that my school schedule became so busy that I stopped blogging my picks entirely: 99-73-4 against the spread, 122-53-1 straight up. Needless to say, I've got some work to do before I can get back to a record like that.

My strategy is typically to stick with my preseason picks through the first 3-4 weeks when making picks. The biggest mistake people tend to make in picking games is to over adjust to one week's information. That said, a week like last week (and, honestly, it being coupled with my week 2 performance) makes me wonder if I was just terribly off in my preseason picks. So, before the picks this week, let's take a look, division by division, to try to glean some information from the first three weeks of the season.

AFC East
My preseason pick: New England win the division, the rest are awful
Right now: New England and Miami are tied at 3-0, the NY Jets are 2-1, and even Buffalo has a win

What we've learned: Brady is missing his receivers more than even I had anticipated, and Gronkowski is still out (thank goodness I also drafted Antonio Gates). Miami is the million dollar question here: are they good, or have they been lucky? Well, they beat a Cleveland team in week one that may not be good, but is also not a team that will roll over like we might have thought. They followed that up by beating an Indy team we thought would be pretty bad, but that team just drubbed the 49ers (who I thought was going to win it all). So perhaps Indy is good, making that Miami win over Indy look better? And the, the biggest of the big wins, was the victory over Atlanta. We'll learn much more about them in the next two weeks (New Orleans and Baltimore) but their offensive and defensive stats are middle of the pack. The Jets? They are only +5 in scoring differential and barely beat the Bills and the awful Tampa Bay Bucs for their two wins. I'm not as worried about them.

AFC North
My preseason pick: Cincinnati to win the division, Baltimore to win 10 games, Pittsburgh to fall below .500 and Cleveland to be Cleveland
Right now: Cincinnati and Baltimore are both 2-1, Cleveland is being Cleveland, and Pittsburgh is even worse than I thought

What we've learned: I feel pretty comfortable with this division picks so far. Cleveland will be a tough out, and accordingly it's possible that Pittsburgh slips to last place in the division this year, but Cincinnati and Baltimore are both flawed teams, but clearly better than the rest.

AFC South
My preseason pick: Houston to run away with the division, Indy and Tennessee to be .500, Jacksonville to be terrible
Right now: Houston isn't running away with anything, but is 2-1, Indy and Tennessee are also 2-1, and Jacksonville is terrible

What we've learned: Houston's offense is not that potent, at least not right now. Indy is an enigma: they should be taking some major steps back from last year, and through two games it looked like they had. Two home games against the bad Dolphins (a loss) and the much worse Raiders (a narrow win) made the Colts at .500 seem to be a spot on pick. But, as mentioned above, the Colts killing San Francisco, coupled with Miami moving on to beat Atlanta, leaves open some major questions. Simply put: we don't know what we have with the Colts right now. .500 seems to be the bottom end of their potential now rather than the most likely outcome. The top end? It could be the playoffs... if Miami is as good as they have been so far, and if San Francisco is as good as we thought they would be. Tennessee, on the other hand, is pretty much right where I thought they'd be with wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a loss to Houston. Somewhat disconcerting: Houston is currently -12 in point differential, while the Titans are +4 and Indy is +20. I think that will shake out a bit in upcoming weeks, but Indy has at least given me pause. The Texans and Colts don't play until week 9, so we may not get any real info about the outcome of this division until then.

AFC West
My preseason pick: Denver to run away with the division, the Chiefs to make the playoffs with double digit wins, San Diego to be slightly below average, and Oakland to be terrible
Right now: Denver looks like a juggernaut, the Chiefs look like they'll make the playoffs, San Diego looks slightly below average, and the Raiders are on pace to be terrible, but not Jacksonville level terrible

What we've learned: This division is pretty much where I thought they'd be. So, for the AFC, I'm 2 for 4 with division picks. Although this is a good time to note that the AFC, which I had pegged to be the much weaker conference, has dominated the NFC so far this year.

NFC East
My preseason pick: I had the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Redskins in that order, saying that was the toughest division for me to pick. I rationalized that this was because all four teams were good.
Right now: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, NY Giants ...

What we've learned: Well, all are in the running for the division ... only it's because everyone is pretty awful in the division. I was right about the Redskins falling off (they are 0-3) but I was pretty wrong about the Giants (I had them at 10-6, but they are also 0-3). Also, I expected Chip Kelly's impact to last longer than the first half against Washington, but that seems to have been the extent of it.

NFC North
My preseason pick: Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota
Right now: Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota

What we've learned: starting at the bottom, I look to have been pretty right about Minnesota's smoke and mirrors act going up in smoke this year. My pick of 5-11 for them might have been a tad generous even. Green Bay has lost twice, but to two teams I had pegged for the playoffs (San Francisco and Cincinnati). Detroit is 2-1, but with wins over Washington and Minnesota. If the Bears beat Detroit this week I'll feel all in all pretty good about my picks here. Even if they don't, I think I'll be ok.

NFC South
My preseason pick: New Orleans and Atlanta at 11-5, Carolina and Tampa at 7-9
Right now: New Orleans is 3-0, Atlanta and Carolina are 1-2, and Tampa is looking awful at 0-3

What we've learned: Again, starting at the bottom, we've learned that Greg Schiano will probably not make it another year in the NFL. Carolina beating the Giants last week saved Ron Rivera his job. Atlanta starting 1-2 makes me feel pretty good about my pick of New Orleans winning the division. All in all, I think what we've learned is that the gap between the top and bottom of this division is as wide as ever.

NFC West
My preseason pick: San Fran with the best record in the league, Seattle making the playoffs, Arizona at .500 and St. Louis in last
Right now: Seattle looks like the juggernaut, San Fran is .500 (through four weeks ... Thursday night football sucks), Arizona, then St. Louis (again, Thursday night football sucks)

What we've learned: We don't know what San Fran is. Seattle looks tough. The other teams may not be that good.

So, with that review, on to the picks for week 4:

Thursday Night

San Francisco (-3.5) over St. Louis - this one was easy to pick for me: if the 49ers blew this their year might be done. It still might be, but this was a gimme

Sunday early games

Chicago (+2) over Detroit - Please note: I had a chance to go to this game and passed. I think that's good for me and for all 5 Lions fans.

Baltimore (-3) over Buffalo - hate taking road favorites, but Baltimore's D looks like it's back to good, and Buffalo doesn't seem to be able stick to what it said it wanted to do: run the ball.

Cincinnati (-4) over Cleveland - last week was Cleveland's "we aren't dead yet" statement. This week they run into a team that needs this win if they want to top Baltimore for the division. Again, a road favorite.

Kansas City (-4) over NY Giants - I hate this pick and I have no confidence in it. But after the show the Giants put up last week against Carolina how in the world can you pick them?

Pittsburgh (-3) over Minnesota - listen, Pittsburgh is bad, but Minnesota is worse. I think the Steelers D, even as broken as it may be, can key in on stopping Peterson, and then can take advantage of Mr. Sam Steele.

Arizona (+1) over Tampa Bay - I think that Schiano benching Freeman was simply to save his job ahead of next week's bye week. It's not because Glennon is a better QB. I think Arizona can come east and win the game.

Indianapolis (-10) over Jacksonville - This is not the week we'll find out what Indy is made of; if they can roll up San Fran like they did last week this should be a breeze.

Houston (+3) over Seattle - I'll jump off the Texans bandwagon if they get throttled here, but I think it's too good of a deal to take the Texans plus points at home.

Sunday afternoon late games

Tennessee (-3) over NY Jets - I like what's going on in Tennessee; not so much what's going on in the Meadowlands ... either conference of the Meadowlands.

Denver (-12) over Philadelphia - I just have to say: Oakland backdoor covering last week against Oakland after they let off the gas pedal makes me a little nervous taking them here. But only a little.

Oakland (+4) over Washington - I don't think that Washington should be favored on the road period. That defense is awful, and RGIII still doesn't look right.

Dallas (-1) over San Diego - Someone has to win the NFC East right? Right? I don't like this pick either, but I like Dallas slightly better than San Diego right now, and on an essential pick 'em line, go with your gut.

Sunday night game

Atlanta (-2) over New England - New England's D is much better than people are talking about, but Atlanta's D won't have to worry about the banged up Pats offense. This is a borderline must win game for Atlanta if they want to stay in the division hunt, so I think they can pull it off.

Monday night game

New Orleans (-7) over Miami - here is where we find out if Miami is for real or not. I'm still going to bet "not" one more week

2013 NFL Week 3 Picks

Quick hits:

Thursday Night

Kansas City (+3.5) over Philadelphia

Sunday Early

Green Bay (-3) over Cincinnati
St. Louis (+4) over Dallas
San Diego (+3) over Tennessee
Minnesota (-8) over Cleveland
Tampa Bay (+9) over New England / Patriots straight up
New Orleans (-8) over Arizona
Detroit (+1) over Washington
New York Giants (-2) over Carolina
Houston (-3) over Baltimore

Sunday Late

Atlanta (+1) over Miami
New York Jets (-1) over Buffalo
San Francisco (-11) over Indianapolis
Seattle (-19) over Jacksonville

Sunday Night

Chicago (-1) over Pittsburgh

Monday Night

Denver (-17) over Oakland

Last week against the spread: 8-7-1
Last week straight up: 10-6
Season against the spread: 18-12-2
Season straight up: 23-9

NFL 2013 Week Two Picks

Today: IU against Bowling Green (we only have so many chances to get back above .500 before we plummet below it for the entirety of the year), Alabama against Texas A&M (my thoughts: if the NCAA only suspended "Johnny Football" for half a game, there is no way they could justify taking Alabama's national title last year for D.J. Fluker getting paid), and then we find out if Notre Dame is half way decent (in which case they will beat Purdue by at least 31) or if they are on their way towards getting Brian Kelly fired (anything less than 31).

Tomorrow: Da Bears, general NFL fun, and then the next to next to last episode of Breaking Bad.

Sounds like a good weekend. On to the picks.

Sunday Early Games:

Atlanta (-7) over St. Louis

The reasoning: this line seems way too high given what we saw in week one. I confirmed by looking at a few online gambling websites, and it seems this line has settled in the -5.5 range rather than -7. Still, I'm sticking to my guns for consistency sake, and that means pulling the lines off ESPN. I'd be ecstatic to get Atlanta -5.5, but I think they are still the smart pick here.They will want to get back on the bike and prove that they are a team to beat in the NFC after losing to their old nemesis in New Orleans last week. St. Louis is tougher than I may have given them credit for, but I'm skeptical that Jarred Cook can continue to be focused enough to produce like he did last week. Without his help, Bradford turn much more mortal. Finally, the St. Louis run game looks like they could still use Steven Jackson, only he's in Atlanta now.

Panthers (-3) over Buffalo

The reasoning:I actually think that the Panther's offense, as neutered as it looked last week against Seattle, is better right now than the Patriots offense. By year's end, if New England gets Amendola, Vereen and Gronkowski back and healthy that shouldn't be the case. But what I heard (on the radio) Thursday night makes me think the Pats are in for a low scoring year period. Buffalo will struggle to run against the Carolina front seven, leaving it all on E.J. Manual. Meanwhile, the Panthers should be able to run well on the Buffalo front seven, and should be able to pass well.

Chicago (-6) over the ViQueens of Minnesota

The reasoning: Christian Ponder on the road is not a good thing. That should enable the Bears to put 8 in the box most of the game to stop Adrian Peterson, which is what Detroit did with success last week. The Bears should also be able to score on a Minnesota defense that suddenly looks its age. I'm just hoping that someone wakes Julius Peppers  up before I have to start making "Julius Pepper's corpse" jokes.

Green Bay (-8) over Washington

The reasoning: this line is also high, and I'd be much happier taking it if it was anything under 7. That said, I think Green Bay will cover for much the same reasons I think Atlanta will cover, and I'm not positive that Washington is any better than St. Louis. As I said in my pre-season preview, I just feel like they are a major candidate for regression.

Indianapolis (-1) over Miami

The reasoning: I don't like either of these teams this week, but gun to head I'll pick the Colts to win this week. Miami has no visible running game, and even if Miami is up six with a minute left, Luck seems to have a way of pulling these things out.

Dallas (+3) over Kansas City

The reasoning: it's early in the year, and the Cowboys like to get their fan's hopes up. Also, KC is riding high after last week, but A) that was against the freaking Jaguars, who probably need to be relegated to division 3 football, and B) Alex Smith didn't look like he believed he could throw more than 5 yards down field. Dallas will win, and then KC will be properly rated.

San Diego (+8) over Philadelphia / Philadelphia straight up

The reasoning: you know that the lines are good when there are so many games I don't like. 8 just feels like a really high line for an Eagles team that may or may not have a defense. That's the troubling thing about last week: did they run out of gas or did they let off the gas pedal? I'm not 100% sure, and I tossed and turned over this pick. Ultimately, I trust Atlanta and Green Bay to cover their "too high lines" more than I do Philadelphia right now.

Baltimore (+7) over Cleveland

The reasoning: this simply feels like a bounce back game for Baltimore. And yes I'm excited to be starting their defense against Brandon Weeden. Don't let me down boys!

Tennessee (+11) over Houston  / Houston straight up

The reasoning: this would be the third "this line is too large" hedge of the week, along with New England on Thursday (see, didn't that game suck? But I was right) and Philly above. I think Tennessee may be this year's good bad team, and I think they are tough enough to hang in, but not win.

Sunday Late Games:

Arizona (+1) over Detroit

The reasoning: Arizona is much better than Minnesota, and I think they will neutralize Reggie Bush much better. I think they can throw on Detroit as well, and this game is on the west coast.

New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay

The reasoning: I feel good about my New Orleans pick this pre-season already, and I feel pretty good about my Tampa Bay pick as well. If I'm right about both, New Orleans should win by a TD easy.

Jacksonville(+6) over Oakland

The reasoning: Well ... Blaine Gabbert is out with an injury, and Terrell Pryor can't be as good as he looked last week. I think that this will just be a game there is no chance of me watching, or me even caring about, as I have no Jag or Raider on either of my fantasy teams.

Denver (-4) over New York Giants

The Reasoning: I hate to take the team coming west to play east minus the points, but it's a late enough game that it should be ok. I think this will be a high scoring game, but I am a believer in what I saw last week from Denver. They are good to go with their 3 receiver, 1 TE, someone blocking at RB sets. Peyton will find someone open.

Sunday Night Game:

San Fransisco (+1) over Seattle

The reasoning: I seem to be in the minority that believes the 49ers are the better team. Last week saw Seattle getting shut down by Carolina, while San Fran had their way with the Packers. I just think that the niners are the superior team.

Monday Night Game:

Pittsburgh (+8) over Cincinnati / Cincinnati straight up

The reasoning: I hate hedging yet another time, but Pittsburgh's defense can still play, and that alone should keep this game to a TD or less. What's more, what I saw last week was that Cincinnati is undisciplined, and undisciplined teams keep games closer than they should.

This week against the spread: 1-0
This week straight up: 1-0
Season against the spread:11-5-1
Season straight up: 14-3

NFL QB Rankings ... Plus The POV Thursday Night Pick

A reminder: Thursday night games suck. That was my refrain last year, and it's my refrain this year. They aren't good for the players: they get three off days, rather than the typical six, to heal and recover. They aren't good for the fans: most of us have real world jobs that entail us getting up at a normal time on Friday, making a late game Thursday night an inconvenience if our favorite team is playing. What's more, if you're a huge NFL fan (guilty) then you are already sacrificing Monday morning (due to Sunday night football) AND Tuesday morning (due to Monday night football) to the NFL. The difference is that on Monday and Tuesday you are still a little rested from the weekend. By Friday morning you are generally spent. And, further more, Thursday night football makes you make decisions on picks and your fantasy football lineup much earlier. The only group this benefits are the rich owners, and their boss, Beelzebub ... er, Roger Goodell.

 So I'm writing to give the POV "Thursday Night Football Sucks" pick. But before that, Boomer Esiason versus Jay Cutler.

Esiason, who has been an outspoken critic of Cutler's before, said on the Sunday pre-game show that he and his expert friends would take 20 quarterbacks in the NFL ahead of Cutler. Simply put, I wanted to see if I agreed with Esiason (who is far from my favorite talking head ... if Cowher wasn't on the CBS pre-game there would be no reason to even think of changing over to their program). Before this exercise my gut was telling me that Boomer was way off base, and that Cutler would easily be inside the top 20. Is he? Consider:

Group One: Guys You'd Absolutely Have Over Jay Cutler, But Who Will Retire Before Him
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Bree
3. Peyton Manning
4. Tom Brady

Group Two: Guys You'd Absolutely Have, And Will Play Longer Than Him
5. Cam Newton
6. Colin Kaepernick
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Russell Wilson
9. Andrew Luck
10. Matt Ryan

Group Three: Guys You'd Probably Take Over Cutler Without Much Thought
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Tony Romo

Group Four: Getting Into Toss Up Territory 
14. Matt Stafford
15. Michael Vick
16. Matt Schaub
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Andy Dalton

Group Five: Guys You'd Say No To Today Over Cutler
19. Sam Bradford
20. Terrelle Pryor
21. Carson Palmer
22. Josh Freeman
23. Phil Rivers
24. Alex Smith
25. Ryan Tannehill
26. E.J. Manuel
27. Blaine Gabbert
28. Jake Locker
29. Christian Ponder
30. Geno Smith
31. Brandon Weeden
...
2,100. Rex Grossman

So, with those in no particular order, Cutler by my count is no lower than 19, but probably 14. I may try to rank them in my personal order some time, or maybe not. But I disagree with Boomer. And I hope he liked the Bears beating his Bengals Sunday.

On to the pick

Season against the spread: 10-5-1
Season straight up: 13-3

Thursday Night Football

Jets (+12) over Patriots / Patriots straight up

The reasoning: too many injuries early in the year for the Pats, and the Jets D is sneaky good. I expect that the Pats can overcome this for a win, but I don't think it will be by 2 TDs or 1 TD and 2 FG.

Remember everyone: Thursday night football sucks! 

The Creation of the Unwinnable Presidency

So here he finds himself, going to the American public this Tuesday night to make the case for taking military action in Syria. The Civil War in Syria, which this July went over 100,000 deaths, has been a non-existent topic in the national debate for much of the time it has been raging on. On August 21st, however, footage began to pour out showing civilians dying, apparently the victims of chemical weapons strikes. The US government quickly began to place the blame on the Syrian leadership, including Syrian President al-Assad. The Syrian government had been collecting chemical weapons for years, and had even (allegedly) used the weapons (admittedly, in much smaller doses) already during this conflict.

Today, in an interview with Charlie Rose, Assad not only denied that he was behind the chemical weapons strikes, but also indicated that the evidence that chemical weapons were used was not irrefutable. Assad's administration, hedging their bets, has also indicated that if the weapons were used it was the rebel forces which used them. Into this mess walks President Obama.

He tried and failed to build an international consensus that taking military action against the Assad regime would be prudent. In fact, he ended up with so little support that he is now going to Congress to get approval to take these measures, although he could very easily take action without Congressional approval should the administration deem it necessary for American security. Once it became obvious that the House of Representatives (at least) would be unlikely to back the military action, Obama was left no other option but to go to the well one more time and take his case to the American people.

We have allowed the creation of an unwinnable Presidency in this country. Setting aside, for the moment, the question of if a military strike in Syria is justifiable (let alone if it would be beneficial), let's look at this equation from a strictly political standpoint. There are a number of possible actions that the USA could take in Syria:

1. Do nothing, stay out of the conflict entirely
2. Make small, "behind the scenes" moves designed to influence the outcome of the conflict (ie arm the rebels, send supplies, etc), but make no overt actions
3. Denounce the violence on the international stage and take action to damage Syria economically (sanctions, embargo, etc) or militarily (more directly arming the rebels or influencing those supplying Syria with arms not to do so)
4. Take limited military action, such as enforcing a no-fly zone (ideally risking no lives on either side from US action)
5. Take more involved military action such as cruise missile strikes (risking lives on the Syrian side, including the risk of innocent civilian deaths)
6. Take additional military action such as air strikes (risking lives on both sides)
7. Engage in a limited "boots on the ground" campaign (perhaps to train the rebels or to secure chemical weapons supplies)
8. Engage in a broad "boots on the ground" campaign (highest risk of loss of life on the US side)

All of these actions carry with them a certain amount of risk, even doing nothing (case in point: Nazi Germany). At the present time the USA is pretty firmly sitting in option three, but is looking to take steps to move towards option five or six. Now, for the political no-win situation the President finds himself in. Suppose that Obama looked at the information indicating that their were chemical weapons used, and did nothing. Why, he's a do-nothing President who is soft on terrorism and doesn't stand up for innocent victims of a dictator. Suppose that he make the case for limited military action. Why, now he's a President who only takes half-measures and who is putting the US into situations where we shouldn't be. It's easy to see how he found himself here: "Dubya" used every bit of international trust when it comes to these things, and China and Russia gain a great deal by creating a "powerless" super-power. Make no mistake, the Republicans will decry Obama now for wanting to take military action, but in 2014 will turn around and either a) criticize him for not doing enough, or b) for doing too much.

A no win situation through and through. I feel for anyone who takes on this job. I wonder if he ever looks at it and says "only three years left..."? I can't help but imagine he does. 

NFL 2013 - Week One Picks

Weekly I'll be posting my picks; a reminder that I pull the projected spread from ESPN.com. As I just posted my season preview, there won't be any commentary here, just the picks. Other weeks may be longer with some thoughts on the various teams and match-ups.

Thursday Night game
Baltimore (+9) over Denver / Denver straight up

Sunday early games:
New England (-10.5) over Buffalo/Jeff Tuel
Chicago (-3) over Cincinnati (okay, one thought: can't pick against the Bears week 1)
Miami (+1) over Cleveland
Detroit (-5) over Minnesota
Oakland (+10.5) over Indianapolis / Indy straight up
New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta
Tampa Bay (-3.5) over NY Jets
Tennessee (+7.5) over Pittsburgh
Seattle (-3.5) over Carolina
Kansas City (-3.5) over Jacksonville

Sunday late games:
Arizona (+4.5) over St. Louis
San Francisco (-4.5) over Green Bay

Sunday night game:
NY Giants (+3) over Dallas

Monday night games:
Philadelphia (+3) over Washington
Houston (-4) over San Diego 

The POV's Return ... NFL Pick Time - 2013 Edition

It's that magical time of year again. There are lots of things I want to blog about, but only one thing that consistently draws me out of pseudo-retirement to actually do it: the start of the NFL season.

Of course, in light of how hits are being penalized by the league office in pre-season games, perhaps it's time to acknowledge that the NFL has quietly changed it's name: it's now the National Flag-football League. Somewhere, Dick Butkus is crying.

Anyway, here are my predictions, division by division, for the NFL this year. Along the way I'll give some brief thoughts on my rationale for each pick. As a reminder, I didn't take the time to look up each schedule, pick winners, and such, so the suggested records are just my gut for what feels right ... they won't add up correctly. Starting with the AFC first:

AFC EAST
1. New England (10-6)
2. Miami (7-9)
3. NY Jets (6-10)
4. Buffalo (4-12)

Rationale: Well, I expect this division ... how can I put this lightly ... to suck. Big time. If the Pats were in almost any other Division I would firmly expect them to fail to win the division. But I also believe this division is that bad. Consider: Jeff Tuel is due to start for Buffalo at QB (he's an undrafted free agent), Dirty Sanchez is down and out, but Geno Smith hasn't looked any better for the Jets, and Miami has question marks all over the roster. Out of these three over matched teams, if one team had to catch the Pats I would lean towards the Dolphins, but I can't see it happening. Buffalo's record seems a bit low, but I also feel like one of these teams needs to struggle big time. If E.J. Manual can put it together for the Bills it very well may be the Jets, but as long as Jeff Tuel is garnering snaps in upstate New York, I've got to go with them.

AFC NORTH
1.  Cincinnati (11-5)
2.  Baltimore (10-6)
3. Pittsburgh (7-9)
4. Cleveland (6-10)

Rationale: I'm not sure this division is much better than their AFC East counterparts. Just like in the AFC East there are "dynastic" teams fading to black (New England, meet Baltimore and Pittsburgh), as well as bad teams who will likely continue to be bad (Miami, New York and Buffalo meet Cleveland... although I like Cleveland a bit more than the other three in this grouping). The difference? I don't know where Cincinnati fits in with those paradigms. And that's why I have them pegged to ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... win the AFC North? Wait, that ended up as a question. I need to be more firm with my predictions. Here we go again: I'm picking Cincinnati to win the AFC North? Damn. Oh well, yes I'm making that pick. The real logic behind it is based in the inherent flaws of their three division mates. Baltimore, first off, played insanely over their heads in marching to a championship last year. Flacco played over his head, and earned a big new contract, then lost the main reason he was able to play that well in the playoffs (a suddenly resurgent Boldin, who will likely fade now, but played out of his mind as well). The Raven's D has some pieces to be sure, but it also lost the two biggest leaders on defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). They have Ray Rice, so they stand to make a run at a wild-card, but I don't expect them to be anything close to a juggernaut. As for Pittsburgh, my number two team is poised to take a "number two" on their fan base. There is no running game here, there is an aging and increasingly ineffective defense here, and their is still no offensive line here. Big Ben has two decent WR targets in Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, but he will struggle to get it to them without time, and he's breaking down due to the number of hits he's taken. I think last year was a sign of things to come, at least until they fix the o-line. The injuries to Heath Miller (last year) and Le'Veon Bell (this year) don't help either. Finally, Cleveland. There is some potential there, but Brandon Weeden still feels like a bust waiting to happen to me, and I'm not sure their D is ready to take a leap to the next level. Their upside is a carbon copy of last year's ViQueens team: awesome running game and solid D makes up for crappy QB play. I just don't believe in them being as good as Peterson and the Minny D was last year. And... finally... will all that unknown, we know what Andy Dalton is, we know what AJ Green is, we know what Green-Ellis is, and we know the Cincy D is pretty good. That looks like the rational pick to me.

AFC South
1. Houston (12-4)
2. Tennessee (8-8)
3. Indianapolis (8-8)
4. Jacksonville (2-14)

Rationale: The Colts are due for a major regression to the mean: they were outscored over 16 games last year, played insane in close games, and are now going from a last place schedule to a second place schedule. The Titans will go wherever Chris Johnson takes them, I just don't see him taking them anywhere past .500. The Jags should be awful this year. Houston makes almost too much sense, but I don't see any real competition for them in this division unless Andrew Luck makes a HUGE jump from "potential Peyton Manning" to "actual Peyton Manning." Which could happen ... but it's nowhere near the guarantee the five remaining Colts fans are convincing themselves it is.

AFC West
1. Denver (11-5)
2. Kansas City (10-6)
3. San Diego (7-9)
4. Oakland (3-13)

Rationale: I obviously expect it to be a bad year across the AFC, as I see a great deal of weakness here too. The Broncos will take a step back, but should still be good enough to win their division. The Chiefs should make a jump just based on getting a competent QB and a competent coach. The Charges seem to be sailing aimlessly, pretending that Phillip Rivers is still an elite QB (based on my observations and fantasy football rankings, he's not). And the Raiders are tanking for a top pick next year, which is why they are about to start the Pryor kid from Ohio State.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia (11-5)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (8-8)
4. Washington (7-9)

Rationale: this was the toughest division for me to pick thus far. I could actually talk myself into any of the four teams winning the division, so let's go in reverse order to see how I concluded that last year's worst team would be this year's best team in the NFC East. Washington seems to be a candidate for some regression, and RGIII coming back after an injury is no guarantee to be the RGIII that got things rolling last year. Dallas has all the pieces and talent win going away, but always seems to fall apart when it counts. The Giants are an easy stand by pick, and I nearly went with them, but they also seem to be weaker depth wise than they have been in awhile. That left the Eagles, who have the advantage of a last place schedule, a bunch of talent, and a new offensive scheme which might when them a few games based on the speed and new looks.

NFC North
1. Green Bay (12-4)
2. Chicago (10-6)
3. Detroit (8-8)
4. Minnesota (5-11)

Rationale: By talent alone the Lions should be in 2nd place, but their coach is a nut job who allows his players to be nut jobs, which fails to bring out any discipline in his team. That is why they fail. I expect a big regression from a Minnesota team that played way over their heads last year and is still starting Mr. Sam Steele at QB. The Bears are a mixed bag, but their new MLB looks good, and their O-line may be slowly improving after years of being vomit inducing. The Pack, as much as I hate them, is the class of the division, and should be again this year barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers.

NFC South
1. New Orleans (11-5)
2. Atlanta (11-5)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (7-9)

Rationale: The Saints should have one bounce back year in them with Sean Payton at the helm before they need to reboot the program. The Falcon's D is getting up there, and their passing game will probably regress a bit. The Panthers running game is still a question, their only legitimate passing target (Steve Smith) is old, and I'm not sure Ron Rivera is a good enough coach to overcome everything. Tampa's o-line is already beat up, and that spells doom for their passing game and running game.

NFC West
1. San Francisco (13-3)
2. Seattle (11-5)
3. Arizona (8-8)
4. St. Louis (6-10)

Rationale: this was the toughest division last year, and may be again this year. The Cardinal's D was tough last year, and I believe that the new coach (Arians) will get points out of Carson Palmer and Co. The Rams have more questions than any other team in this division, which is why I expect a bit of regression. Both the top teams have major WR questions and young QBs primed for regression ... but they both have tough teams top to bottom, and I'm a believer in Harbaugh after two years of watching him return San Fran to their previous glory. The 49ers are once again the class of the league, and if Kaepernick is even 90% as good as he looked last year ... hell, 80% even ... they will be good for some time to come.

Playoffs - AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Baltimore
6. Kansas City

Rationale: I don't like having five teams return to the playoffs, but I'm thinking the rest of the AFC might very well be that bad. First round would be Cincinnati over Kansas City and Baltimore over New England. That would leave Houston hosting Baltimore, where their "repeat" run would come to an end, and Denver hosting Cincinnati, where I would expect the Broncos to win. Houston, barring major injuries, is your AFC champion in 2013.

Playoffs - NFC
1. San Francisco
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle

Rationale: This would leave two "projected" 10-6 teams (Chicago and the Giants) out of the playoffs, so obviously do think the NFC is a better league. That said, I'm a bit happier two have two newbies in this group. First round would be Seattle over New Orleans and Atlanta over Philadelphia. That would lead to a San Francisco versus Seattle second round, which I see San Francisco winning. Green Bay and Atlanta again would be fun, and I see Green Bay winning this year. Again, the top two seeds advance and I see the top seed moving on to the Super Bowl.

Pre-Season Super Bowl Prediction: San Francisco over Houston

Rationale: Any way you slice it, this is a "chalk" prediction, but I guess I'm thinking this will be a "chalk" year. I think that San Fran has a ton of talent, and that the AFC is weak enough for Houston's talent to finally outweigh their ability to shoot themselves in the foot. At least until the Super Bowl. Outdoors, in NYC (er, New Jersey) in winter? Yeah I'd take the 49ers and their ground game and D in that scenario.

2013 NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional Round

Last week's results:

Houston 19 Cincinnati 13 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Green Bay 24 Minnesota 10 (I won straight up but lost against the spread... damn you Joe Webb!!!)
Baltimore 24 Indianapolis 9 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Seattle 24 Washington 14 (I won against the spread and straight up)

So: 3-1 against the spread, 4-0 straight up.

This week brings four matchups that can best be described as "tasty." Whereas last week we had to suffer through Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis and RGIII's knee, this week we get what should be four great games. However, the AFC lines are SUPER high leading to the terrible situation where I get tempted into hedging a pick by taking the points but picking that team to lose.

Baltimore (+9) over Denver

The rationale: See, that's exactly what happened! It's like I couldn't even avoid it. How can I take the Ravens, plus the points? Here's how: one TD, seven INTs. That's Peyton Manning's career numbers outdoors in the cold in the playoffs. He's had an otherworldly year, and it's not going to be windy or snowy in Denver, but it will be around 10 degrees and dropping throughout the game. However, I don't know that I believe Baltimore can WIN the game outright. They looked great last week, but were playing one of the worst playoff teams in the history of the NFL according to advanced metrics. This week, they go on the road and play the presumptive MVP. Besides, doesn't it feel like Peyton is SUPPOSED to host the AFC title game?

The pick: Denver 24 Baltimore 23 (FG as time expires)

Green Bay (+3) over San Francisco

The rationale: I think the Packers peaked way too early last year, and it bit them in the ass in the playoffs. This year? They were left for dead early, gradually got healthy on defense, and are peaking at the right time. Even scarier? Aaron Rodgers had an incredible year, only nobody noticed because of the years that Peyton, ADP, and RGIII had. Meanwhile, San Francisco's defense has looked positively human since the injury to Justin Smith. The game is in San Fran, where the weather is fine, but this Packers team can light it up. Under the gun, who are you going to pick: Colin Kapernick or Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, I thought so.

The pick: Green Bay 27 San Francisco 20

Seattle (+3) over Atlanta

The rationale: Atlanta looks very poor in all advanced metrics: they can't run, their D isn't good, and their special teams is average at best. Seattle, on the other hand, ranks in the top five in pretty much every advanced metric. The only thing that gives me pause is the injury to Clemons, the DE in Seattle, and how much that will hurt their ability to get up field on the pass rush. Against a pretty good Atlanta passing offense, that could be a huge issue. But Seattle just seems to have that feel this year. They can play you on your terms: make them play high octane, they score 50+; make them go the other way, and they grind out the win. Sans the Clemons injury, this is easy. Even after his knee went out, I still feel pretty good about this.

The pick: Seattle 34 Atlanta 24

New England (-10) over Houston

The rationale: Houston has not looked good since they played my Bears in a knock down, drag out brawl. New England, on the other hand, looks great. They seem to be getting healthy at just the right time, and I agree with Bill Simmons: the brain trust in New England has to know that they may not get another shot at the title. They had to have felt that way last year, and after blowing the Super Bowl to be here again, they have to be hyper focused. Besides, simply put, if Denver wins doesn't it feel like Brady v Manning HAS to happen this year? And don't you want it to? I do. Let's run it back one more time boys.

The pick: New England 35 Houston 17

2013 NFL Playoff Picks - Wildcard Round

Well, with a month off, I'm back for the playoff picks. The drive for 11-0 is on again. Hopefully I make it past the first game. Again, I will pick against the spread, but indicate also who I think will win and by what score.

Houston (-4) over Cincinnati

The rationale: I know that Houston hit the last quarter of the year with some pretty significant struggles. I know that Cincinnati's defense was incredibly tough down the stretch. But here's the deal: the Texans might actually benefit from losing the bye week, as it will give them no time to think about the end of year struggles. After blowing the game to Indy last week they went right into game planning for Cincinnati. I have to believe that somewhere in there is the team that started 11-1, and showed the ability to score with the best and defend with the best. That, plus the fact that the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, make me lean towards Houston covering the spread.

The Pick: Houston 24 Cincinnati 17

Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay

The rationale: Green Bay could be in trouble this game under the philosophy that they let a team in the playoffs they had a chance to eliminate last week. In two games against the Pack this year Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards. If he has that kind of production Saturday night the Pack may be in trouble. I can't overstate how much I'll be rooting for the the ViQueens in this game, and I think they'll give a good game. That said, in football you have to give the advantage to the team with the elite quarterback. And, in this game, the elite QB is not Mr. Samantha Steele.

The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 23

Baltimore (-7) over Indianapolis

The rationale: the Colts periphery numbers spell this out. The Colts scored 30 fewer points than their opponents this year, yet won 11 of 16 games. The Colts went 9-1 in games decided by less than a TD, a stat which always regresses back to the mean. The Colts are young, inexperienced, and the "feel good story." The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years. Perhaps Indy keeps it close, but it would be a major upset if the Ravens did not advance.

The Pick: Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 17


 Seattle (-3) over Washington

The rationale: in a year like this, it seems like Seattle has something going for it at the right time. Russell Wilson is the lesser known of three rookie QBs in the playoffs, but if things go the way I think they will he will be the last one standing after Sunday.

The Pick: Seattle 27 Washington 20