It's that magical time of year again. There are lots of things I want to blog about, but only one thing that consistently draws me out of pseudo-retirement to actually do it: the start of the NFL season.
Of course, in light of how hits are being penalized by the league office in pre-season games, perhaps it's time to acknowledge that the NFL has quietly changed it's name: it's now the National Flag-football League. Somewhere, Dick Butkus is crying.
Anyway, here are my predictions, division by division, for the NFL this year. Along the way I'll give some brief thoughts on my rationale for each pick. As a reminder, I didn't take the time to look up each schedule, pick winners, and such, so the suggested records are just my gut for what feels right ... they won't add up correctly. Starting with the AFC first:
AFC EAST
1. New England (10-6)
2. Miami (7-9)
3. NY Jets (6-10)
4. Buffalo (4-12)
Rationale: Well, I expect this division ... how can I put this lightly ... to suck. Big time. If the Pats were in almost any other Division I would firmly expect them to fail to win the division. But I also believe this division is that bad. Consider: Jeff Tuel is due to start for Buffalo at QB (he's an undrafted free agent), Dirty Sanchez is down and out, but Geno Smith hasn't looked any better for the Jets, and Miami has question marks all over the roster. Out of these three over matched teams, if one team had to catch the Pats I would lean towards the Dolphins, but I can't see it happening. Buffalo's record seems a bit low, but I also feel like one of these teams needs to struggle big time. If E.J. Manual can put it together for the Bills it very well may be the Jets, but as long as Jeff Tuel is garnering snaps in upstate New York, I've got to go with them.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati (11-5)
2. Baltimore (10-6)
3. Pittsburgh (7-9)
4. Cleveland (6-10)
Rationale: I'm not sure this division is much better than their AFC East counterparts. Just like in the AFC East there are "dynastic" teams fading to black (New England, meet Baltimore and Pittsburgh), as well as bad teams who will likely continue to be bad (Miami, New York and Buffalo meet Cleveland... although I like Cleveland a bit more than the other three in this grouping). The difference? I don't know where Cincinnati fits in with those paradigms. And that's why I have them pegged to ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... win the AFC North? Wait, that ended up as a question. I need to be more firm with my predictions. Here we go again: I'm picking Cincinnati to win the AFC North? Damn. Oh well, yes I'm making that pick. The real logic behind it is based in the inherent flaws of their three division mates. Baltimore, first off, played insanely over their heads in marching to a championship last year. Flacco played over his head, and earned a big new contract, then lost the main reason he was able to play that well in the playoffs (a suddenly resurgent Boldin, who will likely fade now, but played out of his mind as well). The Raven's D has some pieces to be sure, but it also lost the two biggest leaders on defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). They have Ray Rice, so they stand to make a run at a wild-card, but I don't expect them to be anything close to a juggernaut. As for Pittsburgh, my number two team is poised to take a "number two" on their fan base. There is no running game here, there is an aging and increasingly ineffective defense here, and their is still no offensive line here. Big Ben has two decent WR targets in Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, but he will struggle to get it to them without time, and he's breaking down due to the number of hits he's taken. I think last year was a sign of things to come, at least until they fix the o-line. The injuries to Heath Miller (last year) and Le'Veon Bell (this year) don't help either. Finally, Cleveland. There is some potential there, but Brandon Weeden still feels like a bust waiting to happen to me, and I'm not sure their D is ready to take a leap to the next level. Their upside is a carbon copy of last year's ViQueens team: awesome running game and solid D makes up for crappy QB play. I just don't believe in them being as good as Peterson and the Minny D was last year. And... finally... will all that unknown, we know what Andy Dalton is, we know what AJ Green is, we know what Green-Ellis is, and we know the Cincy D is pretty good. That looks like the rational pick to me.
AFC South
1. Houston (12-4)
2. Tennessee (8-8)
3. Indianapolis (8-8)
4. Jacksonville (2-14)
Rationale: The Colts are due for a major regression to the mean: they were outscored over 16 games last year, played insane in close games, and are now going from a last place schedule to a second place schedule. The Titans will go wherever Chris Johnson takes them, I just don't see him taking them anywhere past .500. The Jags should be awful this year. Houston makes almost too much sense, but I don't see any real competition for them in this division unless Andrew Luck makes a HUGE jump from "potential Peyton Manning" to "actual Peyton Manning." Which could happen ... but it's nowhere near the guarantee the five remaining Colts fans are convincing themselves it is.
AFC West
1. Denver (11-5)
2. Kansas City (10-6)
3. San Diego (7-9)
4. Oakland (3-13)
Rationale: I obviously expect it to be a bad year across the AFC, as I see a great deal of weakness here too. The Broncos will take a step back, but should still be good enough to win their division. The Chiefs should make a jump just based on getting a competent QB and a competent coach. The Charges seem to be sailing aimlessly, pretending that Phillip Rivers is still an elite QB (based on my observations and fantasy football rankings, he's not). And the Raiders are tanking for a top pick next year, which is why they are about to start the Pryor kid from Ohio State.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia (11-5)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (8-8)
4. Washington (7-9)
Rationale: this was the toughest division for me to pick thus far. I could actually talk myself into any of the four teams winning the division, so let's go in reverse order to see how I concluded that last year's worst team would be this year's best team in the NFC East. Washington seems to be a candidate for some regression, and RGIII coming back after an injury is no guarantee to be the RGIII that got things rolling last year. Dallas has all the pieces and talent win going away, but always seems to fall apart when it counts. The Giants are an easy stand by pick, and I nearly went with them, but they also seem to be weaker depth wise than they have been in awhile. That left the Eagles, who have the advantage of a last place schedule, a bunch of talent, and a new offensive scheme which might when them a few games based on the speed and new looks.
NFC North
1. Green Bay (12-4)
2. Chicago (10-6)
3. Detroit (8-8)
4. Minnesota (5-11)
Rationale: By talent alone the Lions should be in 2nd place, but their coach is a nut job who allows his players to be nut jobs, which fails to bring out any discipline in his team. That is why they fail. I expect a big regression from a Minnesota team that played way over their heads last year and is still starting Mr. Sam Steele at QB. The Bears are a mixed bag, but their new MLB looks good, and their O-line may be slowly improving after years of being vomit inducing. The Pack, as much as I hate them, is the class of the division, and should be again this year barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
1. New Orleans (11-5)
2. Atlanta (11-5)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (7-9)
Rationale: The Saints should have one bounce back year in them with Sean Payton at the helm before they need to reboot the program. The Falcon's D is getting up there, and their passing game will probably regress a bit. The Panthers running game is still a question, their only legitimate passing target (Steve Smith) is old, and I'm not sure Ron Rivera is a good enough coach to overcome everything. Tampa's o-line is already beat up, and that spells doom for their passing game and running game.
NFC West
1. San Francisco (13-3)
2. Seattle (11-5)
3. Arizona (8-8)
4. St. Louis (6-10)
Rationale: this was the toughest division last year, and may be again this year. The Cardinal's D was tough last year, and I believe that the new coach (Arians) will get points out of Carson Palmer and Co. The Rams have more questions than any other team in this division, which is why I expect a bit of regression. Both the top teams have major WR questions and young QBs primed for regression ... but they both have tough teams top to bottom, and I'm a believer in Harbaugh after two years of watching him return San Fran to their previous glory. The 49ers are once again the class of the league, and if Kaepernick is even 90% as good as he looked last year ... hell, 80% even ... they will be good for some time to come.
Playoffs - AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Baltimore
6. Kansas City
Rationale: I don't like having five teams return to the playoffs, but I'm thinking the rest of the AFC might very well be that bad. First round would be Cincinnati over Kansas City and Baltimore over New England. That would leave Houston hosting Baltimore, where their "repeat" run would come to an end, and Denver hosting Cincinnati, where I would expect the Broncos to win. Houston, barring major injuries, is your AFC champion in 2013.
Playoffs - NFC
1. San Francisco
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle
Rationale: This would leave two "projected" 10-6 teams (Chicago and the Giants) out of the playoffs, so obviously do think the NFC is a better league. That said, I'm a bit happier two have two newbies in this group. First round would be Seattle over New Orleans and Atlanta over Philadelphia. That would lead to a San Francisco versus Seattle second round, which I see San Francisco winning. Green Bay and Atlanta again would be fun, and I see Green Bay winning this year. Again, the top two seeds advance and I see the top seed moving on to the Super Bowl.
Pre-Season Super Bowl Prediction: San Francisco over Houston
Rationale: Any way you slice it, this is a "chalk" prediction, but I guess I'm thinking this will be a "chalk" year. I think that San Fran has a ton of talent, and that the AFC is weak enough for Houston's talent to finally outweigh their ability to shoot themselves in the foot. At least until the Super Bowl. Outdoors, in NYC (er, New Jersey) in winter? Yeah I'd take the 49ers and their ground game and D in that scenario.
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