2013 NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional Round

Last week's results:

Houston 19 Cincinnati 13 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Green Bay 24 Minnesota 10 (I won straight up but lost against the spread... damn you Joe Webb!!!)
Baltimore 24 Indianapolis 9 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Seattle 24 Washington 14 (I won against the spread and straight up)

So: 3-1 against the spread, 4-0 straight up.

This week brings four matchups that can best be described as "tasty." Whereas last week we had to suffer through Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis and RGIII's knee, this week we get what should be four great games. However, the AFC lines are SUPER high leading to the terrible situation where I get tempted into hedging a pick by taking the points but picking that team to lose.

Baltimore (+9) over Denver

The rationale: See, that's exactly what happened! It's like I couldn't even avoid it. How can I take the Ravens, plus the points? Here's how: one TD, seven INTs. That's Peyton Manning's career numbers outdoors in the cold in the playoffs. He's had an otherworldly year, and it's not going to be windy or snowy in Denver, but it will be around 10 degrees and dropping throughout the game. However, I don't know that I believe Baltimore can WIN the game outright. They looked great last week, but were playing one of the worst playoff teams in the history of the NFL according to advanced metrics. This week, they go on the road and play the presumptive MVP. Besides, doesn't it feel like Peyton is SUPPOSED to host the AFC title game?

The pick: Denver 24 Baltimore 23 (FG as time expires)

Green Bay (+3) over San Francisco

The rationale: I think the Packers peaked way too early last year, and it bit them in the ass in the playoffs. This year? They were left for dead early, gradually got healthy on defense, and are peaking at the right time. Even scarier? Aaron Rodgers had an incredible year, only nobody noticed because of the years that Peyton, ADP, and RGIII had. Meanwhile, San Francisco's defense has looked positively human since the injury to Justin Smith. The game is in San Fran, where the weather is fine, but this Packers team can light it up. Under the gun, who are you going to pick: Colin Kapernick or Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, I thought so.

The pick: Green Bay 27 San Francisco 20

Seattle (+3) over Atlanta

The rationale: Atlanta looks very poor in all advanced metrics: they can't run, their D isn't good, and their special teams is average at best. Seattle, on the other hand, ranks in the top five in pretty much every advanced metric. The only thing that gives me pause is the injury to Clemons, the DE in Seattle, and how much that will hurt their ability to get up field on the pass rush. Against a pretty good Atlanta passing offense, that could be a huge issue. But Seattle just seems to have that feel this year. They can play you on your terms: make them play high octane, they score 50+; make them go the other way, and they grind out the win. Sans the Clemons injury, this is easy. Even after his knee went out, I still feel pretty good about this.

The pick: Seattle 34 Atlanta 24

New England (-10) over Houston

The rationale: Houston has not looked good since they played my Bears in a knock down, drag out brawl. New England, on the other hand, looks great. They seem to be getting healthy at just the right time, and I agree with Bill Simmons: the brain trust in New England has to know that they may not get another shot at the title. They had to have felt that way last year, and after blowing the Super Bowl to be here again, they have to be hyper focused. Besides, simply put, if Denver wins doesn't it feel like Brady v Manning HAS to happen this year? And don't you want it to? I do. Let's run it back one more time boys.

The pick: New England 35 Houston 17