0-4 against the spread ... 2-2 straight up ... last week was the most brutal week of picking playoff games I can ever remember. Every angle I decided on was wrong. It was brutal.
So this week I'm taking a different angle: what do I think will bring the best ratings on Super Bowl Sunday? Does that match up with what can happen? At this point any outcome of these games have to be possible. We've got three teams that talk up their defense left (49ers, Giants, Ravens) and one team that hasn't had a defense all year, but has a potent (the most potent?) offense in the Pats. So, after guaranteeing myself a losing playoff record against the spread with my crap-tastic picks, here's what I'm thinking:
Sunday (3pm) - Baltimore at New England (-9)
My Logic: Tom Brady has yet another chance to cement his legacy as one of the two greatest quarter backs of all time. With three Super Bowl wins he is on the edge of that discussion. With a fourth? It's him and Montana, and nobody else comes close. Today there is a chance (albeit a poor chance) that Manning wins another one and people put his legacy against Brady's again. If it wasn't for my man Tracy Porter two years ago that probably would be where we are at today. But if he wins a fourth? Game, set, match. The Patriots have blown their last two chances to win number four in Tom's career (against the Colts in 2006, when they surely would have beat my Bears) and against the Giants the following year in the Super Bowl. I'm sure you see where I'm going with this but would their be a more iconic way for him to win number four than in Indy, playing...
Sunday (6:30pm) - NY Giants at San Francisco (-3)
My Logic: They New York Giants, and Eli Manning? You know that Brady carries that Super Bowl loss with him always. If they win that game, and complete the perfect season, then he leaps Montana into undisputed Greatest of All Time poll position. Instead, it's left open. Since then he has missed a year thanks to Pollard's hit, had a good come back year, then had arguably the greatest season ever for a QB last year. But doesn't it feel like the Giants have to be the obstacle for Brady to overcome? On the other hand ... beating Montana's team in the Super Bowl would have some appeal as well. In this game, it comes down to this: who do I believe in more? Alex Smith? Eli Manning? I've been telling people for awhile now: Eli has irrational confidence in his ability to win games, make throws, and generally be a elite QB. Funny thing is: he's become an elite QB because of that irrational confidence. Down three with one minute left Alex Smith might be able to win it for you, but even he's not sure. Eli knows he's going to win it for you. You wouldn't take him ahead of Rodgers, Brady, Manning the Older or Big Ben ... but he'd think you would. He'd tell you "you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall," and he'd do it with a straight face. He believes in his ability irrationally ... and that makes him dangerous, and the right pick. Eli wins this game. He goes into his brother's house to face off against his brother's nemesis in a rematch of the game where he kept his brother's chance of going down as the Greatest of All Time alive. And Peyton watches, in his hometown, knowing deep down inside ... he's never playing again. The day after the Super Bowl the Andrew Luck era will start in Indy, an all time great will walk into the sunset, and we will be left to marvel at Eli either having the same resume as his brother (two Super Bowl's, one win) or a superior resume (two Super Bowl wins). I just got goose bumps writing that sentence. That's what tells me it's right.
The Picks:
Patriots (-9) over Baltimore
Patriots 31 - Baltimore 20
Giants (+3) over San Francisco
Giants 27 - San Francisco 24
Now you can go bet on the other teams :-)
Friday, January 20, 2012
Monday, January 16, 2012
The 50 Greatest Players In NBA History - The Bottom Ten
On June 22nd 2009 I ambitiously set out to revise the 50 greatest players in NBA history list. It seemed like a good idea at the time, and so I wrote an introductory blog explaining why I was doing it and, among other things, why Reggie Miller didn't fit in the group. In fact, I might have started that whole project just to explain why Reggie sucks. Who knows? Anyway, on July 10, 2009 I put in my second installment, entitled "The Last 12 Out." Click the link if you need a refresher course on those twelve, the group that just didn't make my cut.
And then ... I kept blogging about other things. I kept the idea in my mind, but Bill Simmons came out with a book which essential did this very thing in 2010, and my computer with the original list from 2009 began to have issues, so I didn't have easy access to the spreadsheet. Or maybe I just didn't go on with the list because, you know, I really just wanted to rip on Reggie. He does suck, after all.
But never fear, sports fans: I am as strong headed as they come, and I don't hesitate to put out an idea, fail to follow through on it for years, then come back to it at a moments notice. Remember my plans to chronicle all the teams in the NFL, MLB and NBA in a power ranking of my favorite to least favorite? I entitled those three posts "The Ultimate Rankings." And don't you worry, I'm sure I'll finish them sometime too ... although I'll undoubtedly have to reconsider them by the time I do. LeBron will probably be retired by then, and Peyton almost certainly will be. At any rate, I'm coming back to the 50 greatest revisited right now, because my mind can't stare at the COA standards for my practicum a minute more. To keep it fair to the initial intent, this is how I felt in 2009, after the 2008-2009 finals (Kobe's fourth title), and prior to Simmons book. I encourage you to look back at the two previous posts under "50 Greatest" to review my bullet proof logic. And now, on to the bottom ten.
50. Allen Iverson - SG - Philadelphia/Denver/Detroit/Memphis
And ... I just lost my uncle. So now there are two of you reading this. His stated dislike of the N.G.A. aside, I did think long and hard about Iverson's career when originally formulating these rankings. I considered his style of play, which was helped by the emphasis on street ball in the ost Jordan (the second time) era. I considered his lack of a championship, and his lack of an average shooting percentage (.425 for his career, a point which I drove home in a Sophomore year of high school speech entitled "Why Michael Jordan is better at 39 in a Wizards Uniform Than any Player in the NBA Period ... and if you don't agree then you SUCK" repeatedly). I considered his general demeanor and his video clips (yes ... click for the "Practice" link ... and for fun, count how many times he says the word).
But here's what I kept coming back to: was there every a player with his stature who was able to put his body through what he did, night in and night out? In the history of the game I can't think of one. His final numbers reflect that of a cold and calculated scorer (26.7ppg, 3.7rpg, 6.2apg), but he also played an insane 41.1 minutes per game over his career. Iverson actually played in over 40 minutes per game 12 straight years, only missing 14 straight because he only averaged 39.4 his second year in the league. That is an insane amount of work for a player of his size. And the final tie breaker, for me, was the one team he carried to the finals to lose to Shaq's Lakers. That team was awful, and that might not be a strong enough word. Matt Geiger. Eric Snow. Aaron Mckie. Outside of an aging Mutombo in the middle, there was nobody worth anything. And Iverson carried them to the finals, and then WON A GAME against Shaq and Kobe. He wasn't a player I'd want on my team, but he was inside the top 50 all time ... I just can't put him any higher than this. And, oh by the way, in the year he took the 76ers to the finals he averaged 46.2 minutes per game over 22 games.
49. Paul Pierce - SF - Boston Celtics
Pierce has done nothing but make this ranking look solid since 2009. He has put in two more quality years as the best player on a good Boston team. While his scoring has decreased slightly, he has now made it twelve straight years scoring at least 18 points per game. His career averages indicate a swing man you could build a winner around (22.1ppg, 6.1rpg, 3.8apg, 1.5spg). Pierce has never been a shut down defender, but he has worked his way into the category of good team defender. He works hard, and he combined with Ray Allen (#58) and Kevin Garnett to bring basketball back to Boston in a meaningful way. He has been a nine time all-star, won the finals MVP in 2008, and made three All-NBA 3rd teams and one All-NBA 2nd team. The biggest argument against him is that he never finished higher than 7th in MVP voting, and only once finished in the top ten. But Pierce is one of the toughest players of his generation, and when I drew up this rankings I assumed he'd win a second title in Boston. While that looks unlikely to happen, he continues to be a top player in the NBA, so I'm okay with leaving him here.
48. Dave Bing - G - Detroit/Washington/Boston
Back to old(er) school players with a Piston who the fans have ranked #126. I'll give Bing the benefit of the doubt for a few reasons. One, he played on some bad Detroit teams, yet found a way to keep the teams competitive. His career averages (20.3ppg, 3.8rpg, 6.0apg) are not mind blowing, but I'm giving Bing credit for his peak (27.1ppg, 4.7rpg, 6.4apg) and for being an Iverson-like player in an era where that player was not likely to be as successful. I'm very happy to admit I was probably way off on this ranking, as looking at peripheral recognition (7 All-Star nods, 3 starts, 3 top ten finishes for MVP but none higher than 3rd) would indicate. But Bing at his apex was enough for me to put him here.
47. Nate Thurmond - C - San Francisco (Golden State)/Chicago/Cleveland
Okay, time for a confession: I've always had a soft spot for Nate Thurmond. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I know that doesn't make any sense given that Nate retired when I was nine years away from being born. But as I began my dive into sports fandom, I became fascinated with Nate, the center who was overshadowed by Wilt, later Kareem. It always seemed (in hindsight) that he was forced to play second or third fiddle, when in most other eras he would have been more appreciated. And maybe that's true. Or maybe it's not, and in that case it is simply possible that as an elementary school child I became fascinated with the concept that this guy was a hell of a center, but not quite good enough to get recognized as an All-Time Great. He finished his career with 15.0ppg, 15.0rpg, and 2.7apg, and was known as a good defender and shot blocker in an era before they counted blocks. He made 7 All-Star teams, played in 5 and started in two. He made five all-defensive teams, and finished in the top ten of MVP voting 3 times (second once!). But, in light of Bing being at 48, I'm starting to think I was off base when I drew up these ratings.
46. Robert Parish - C - Golden State/Boston/Charlotte/Chicago
The other day I was driving home and on the sports radio they were talking about Parish ... I don't know why. I also don't know why, but I imagined I was asked "what teams did he play for" and I knew that if I got that question on who wants to be a millionaire I'd nail it. I loved basketball cards in the early 1990s. At any rate, Parish is a little lower here than most people would have him, but he played in Bird and McHale's shadow. He was a great center though, finishing with career averages of 14.5ppg and 9.1rpg, numbers which were brought down because of his longevity. He played til he was 43 and picked up one last ring with Jordan's Bulls. He made 9 All-Star teams, two All-NBA teams, had two years in the top ten of MVP voting, and was a Hall of Fame center on a Celtics dynasty team. Good enough for me.
45. Kevin McHale - F - Boston
McHale, Simmons has pointed out, had a wider and more effective repertoire of post moves than just about anyone. At his apex he was momentarily on a level near Bird (26.1ppg, 9.9rpg), and he made seven All-Star teams, won the sixth man of the year award twice, and was a six time all-defensive team member (once all-NBA). Besides that, he was a winner, and I give credence to that.
44. Nate Archibald - G - Cincinnati (Kansas City)/New York/Boston/Milwaulkee
"Tiny" was a point guard who led the league in assists and points per game ... in the same year. He was like Iverson on crack: more dynamic scoring, much better passing. His career also petered out quickly due to injuries, age, and ineffectiveness. He made six All-Star teams, had five top ten finishes in the MVP voting, made five All-NBA teams (three first, two second), and was a role player on a Celtics championship team.
43. Jason Kidd - G - Dallas/Phoenix/New Jersey/Dallas
Career averages of 13.2ppg, 6.5rpg, 9.1apg and 2.0spg speak volumes about his versatility, but his ability to reinvent himself as a three point assassin late in his career, his devotion to quality defense, and his ability to run a team transcend those numbers. It's sad to see him now, as washed up as he is, but the poor guy is 38. That also makes me feel old, as I remember when he was drafted. At least he outlasted Mashburn and Jackson. He'll always have that.
42. Dave DeBusschere - G/F - Detroit/New York
Career numbers of 16.1ppg and 11.0rpg for this defensive maniac from the 60s and 70s. 8 All-star appearances, 6 all-defensive teams, and two championships for the Knicks.
41. Walt Frazier - G - New York/Cleveland
It always amuses me to see the teams that some of these legends ended up on. Who really could remember that "Clyde" finished up with parts of three seasons in Cleveland? His career numbers (18.9ppg, 5.9rpg 6.1apg) demonstrate how well rounded he was. Seven All-Star nods (all starts), six all-NBA and seven all-defensive teams show how well regarded he was.
Until 2014 ... Unless the Mayans were right.
And then ... I kept blogging about other things. I kept the idea in my mind, but Bill Simmons came out with a book which essential did this very thing in 2010, and my computer with the original list from 2009 began to have issues, so I didn't have easy access to the spreadsheet. Or maybe I just didn't go on with the list because, you know, I really just wanted to rip on Reggie. He does suck, after all.
But never fear, sports fans: I am as strong headed as they come, and I don't hesitate to put out an idea, fail to follow through on it for years, then come back to it at a moments notice. Remember my plans to chronicle all the teams in the NFL, MLB and NBA in a power ranking of my favorite to least favorite? I entitled those three posts "The Ultimate Rankings." And don't you worry, I'm sure I'll finish them sometime too ... although I'll undoubtedly have to reconsider them by the time I do. LeBron will probably be retired by then, and Peyton almost certainly will be. At any rate, I'm coming back to the 50 greatest revisited right now, because my mind can't stare at the COA standards for my practicum a minute more. To keep it fair to the initial intent, this is how I felt in 2009, after the 2008-2009 finals (Kobe's fourth title), and prior to Simmons book. I encourage you to look back at the two previous posts under "50 Greatest" to review my bullet proof logic. And now, on to the bottom ten.
50. Allen Iverson - SG - Philadelphia/Denver/Detroit/Memphis
And ... I just lost my uncle. So now there are two of you reading this. His stated dislike of the N.G.A. aside, I did think long and hard about Iverson's career when originally formulating these rankings. I considered his style of play, which was helped by the emphasis on street ball in the ost Jordan (the second time) era. I considered his lack of a championship, and his lack of an average shooting percentage (.425 for his career, a point which I drove home in a Sophomore year of high school speech entitled "Why Michael Jordan is better at 39 in a Wizards Uniform Than any Player in the NBA Period ... and if you don't agree then you SUCK" repeatedly). I considered his general demeanor and his video clips (yes ... click for the "Practice" link ... and for fun, count how many times he says the word).
But here's what I kept coming back to: was there every a player with his stature who was able to put his body through what he did, night in and night out? In the history of the game I can't think of one. His final numbers reflect that of a cold and calculated scorer (26.7ppg, 3.7rpg, 6.2apg), but he also played an insane 41.1 minutes per game over his career. Iverson actually played in over 40 minutes per game 12 straight years, only missing 14 straight because he only averaged 39.4 his second year in the league. That is an insane amount of work for a player of his size. And the final tie breaker, for me, was the one team he carried to the finals to lose to Shaq's Lakers. That team was awful, and that might not be a strong enough word. Matt Geiger. Eric Snow. Aaron Mckie. Outside of an aging Mutombo in the middle, there was nobody worth anything. And Iverson carried them to the finals, and then WON A GAME against Shaq and Kobe. He wasn't a player I'd want on my team, but he was inside the top 50 all time ... I just can't put him any higher than this. And, oh by the way, in the year he took the 76ers to the finals he averaged 46.2 minutes per game over 22 games.
49. Paul Pierce - SF - Boston Celtics
Pierce has done nothing but make this ranking look solid since 2009. He has put in two more quality years as the best player on a good Boston team. While his scoring has decreased slightly, he has now made it twelve straight years scoring at least 18 points per game. His career averages indicate a swing man you could build a winner around (22.1ppg, 6.1rpg, 3.8apg, 1.5spg). Pierce has never been a shut down defender, but he has worked his way into the category of good team defender. He works hard, and he combined with Ray Allen (#58) and Kevin Garnett to bring basketball back to Boston in a meaningful way. He has been a nine time all-star, won the finals MVP in 2008, and made three All-NBA 3rd teams and one All-NBA 2nd team. The biggest argument against him is that he never finished higher than 7th in MVP voting, and only once finished in the top ten. But Pierce is one of the toughest players of his generation, and when I drew up this rankings I assumed he'd win a second title in Boston. While that looks unlikely to happen, he continues to be a top player in the NBA, so I'm okay with leaving him here.
48. Dave Bing - G - Detroit/Washington/Boston
Back to old(er) school players with a Piston who the fans have ranked #126. I'll give Bing the benefit of the doubt for a few reasons. One, he played on some bad Detroit teams, yet found a way to keep the teams competitive. His career averages (20.3ppg, 3.8rpg, 6.0apg) are not mind blowing, but I'm giving Bing credit for his peak (27.1ppg, 4.7rpg, 6.4apg) and for being an Iverson-like player in an era where that player was not likely to be as successful. I'm very happy to admit I was probably way off on this ranking, as looking at peripheral recognition (7 All-Star nods, 3 starts, 3 top ten finishes for MVP but none higher than 3rd) would indicate. But Bing at his apex was enough for me to put him here.
47. Nate Thurmond - C - San Francisco (Golden State)/Chicago/Cleveland
Okay, time for a confession: I've always had a soft spot for Nate Thurmond. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I know that doesn't make any sense given that Nate retired when I was nine years away from being born. But as I began my dive into sports fandom, I became fascinated with Nate, the center who was overshadowed by Wilt, later Kareem. It always seemed (in hindsight) that he was forced to play second or third fiddle, when in most other eras he would have been more appreciated. And maybe that's true. Or maybe it's not, and in that case it is simply possible that as an elementary school child I became fascinated with the concept that this guy was a hell of a center, but not quite good enough to get recognized as an All-Time Great. He finished his career with 15.0ppg, 15.0rpg, and 2.7apg, and was known as a good defender and shot blocker in an era before they counted blocks. He made 7 All-Star teams, played in 5 and started in two. He made five all-defensive teams, and finished in the top ten of MVP voting 3 times (second once!). But, in light of Bing being at 48, I'm starting to think I was off base when I drew up these ratings.
46. Robert Parish - C - Golden State/Boston/Charlotte/Chicago
The other day I was driving home and on the sports radio they were talking about Parish ... I don't know why. I also don't know why, but I imagined I was asked "what teams did he play for" and I knew that if I got that question on who wants to be a millionaire I'd nail it. I loved basketball cards in the early 1990s. At any rate, Parish is a little lower here than most people would have him, but he played in Bird and McHale's shadow. He was a great center though, finishing with career averages of 14.5ppg and 9.1rpg, numbers which were brought down because of his longevity. He played til he was 43 and picked up one last ring with Jordan's Bulls. He made 9 All-Star teams, two All-NBA teams, had two years in the top ten of MVP voting, and was a Hall of Fame center on a Celtics dynasty team. Good enough for me.
45. Kevin McHale - F - Boston
McHale, Simmons has pointed out, had a wider and more effective repertoire of post moves than just about anyone. At his apex he was momentarily on a level near Bird (26.1ppg, 9.9rpg), and he made seven All-Star teams, won the sixth man of the year award twice, and was a six time all-defensive team member (once all-NBA). Besides that, he was a winner, and I give credence to that.
44. Nate Archibald - G - Cincinnati (Kansas City)/New York/Boston/Milwaulkee
"Tiny" was a point guard who led the league in assists and points per game ... in the same year. He was like Iverson on crack: more dynamic scoring, much better passing. His career also petered out quickly due to injuries, age, and ineffectiveness. He made six All-Star teams, had five top ten finishes in the MVP voting, made five All-NBA teams (three first, two second), and was a role player on a Celtics championship team.
43. Jason Kidd - G - Dallas/Phoenix/New Jersey/Dallas
Career averages of 13.2ppg, 6.5rpg, 9.1apg and 2.0spg speak volumes about his versatility, but his ability to reinvent himself as a three point assassin late in his career, his devotion to quality defense, and his ability to run a team transcend those numbers. It's sad to see him now, as washed up as he is, but the poor guy is 38. That also makes me feel old, as I remember when he was drafted. At least he outlasted Mashburn and Jackson. He'll always have that.
42. Dave DeBusschere - G/F - Detroit/New York
Career numbers of 16.1ppg and 11.0rpg for this defensive maniac from the 60s and 70s. 8 All-star appearances, 6 all-defensive teams, and two championships for the Knicks.
41. Walt Frazier - G - New York/Cleveland
It always amuses me to see the teams that some of these legends ended up on. Who really could remember that "Clyde" finished up with parts of three seasons in Cleveland? His career numbers (18.9ppg, 5.9rpg 6.1apg) demonstrate how well rounded he was. Seven All-Star nods (all starts), six all-NBA and seven all-defensive teams show how well regarded he was.
Until 2014 ... Unless the Mayans were right.
Friday, January 13, 2012
The pov playoff picks - round two
Submitted via phone due to my crazy work and school schedule:
- Saints (-4) over 49ers
The Saints are too hot; that said, this line is way too high. It should be a pick 'em.
Saints 24 - 49ers 17
- Broncos (+14) over Patriots
The last game was closer than the final score. T.C. will keep it close. How can you doubt him after last week?
Patriots 31 - Broncos 21
- Baltimore (-9) over Houston
I already don't like this pick, but I can't take T.J. Yates in the road in the playoffs against Ray Lewis.
Baltimore 27 - Houston 17
- Green Bay (-9) over NY Giants
I was ready to take the Giants. All week I was ready to do it. But way too many people are on their bandwagon now, and Eli isn't very hood when people expect him to be. Pack rolls.
Green Bay 34 - NY Giants 17
Last week against the spread: 2-2
Last week straight up: 3-1 (I got tebowed)
Monday, January 9, 2012
The National Championship - A Running Diary
'Bama v LSU Redux? Sounds like a great time for a live blog. Remember, this "running diary" will chronicle the National Title game, but will also include a wide variety of quick hits and insights. I hope you enjoy:
8:16pm - Welcome to the POV's live breakdown of the National Championship Game. If this game is half as entertaining, close, and hard fought as the first LSU - Alabama match up was you'll be very pleased with the results of this blog. Otherwise, I might just stop half way through. Either way I do have some bad news: I'm most likely unable to do my fourth annual Super Bowl live blog due to working obligations. In light of this, please accept my apologies, and take this live blog in its' place. If I find a way to not work the Super Bowl, you'll just have to suck it up and get a two for one.
8:19pm - I think the guy singing the national anthem should have started half a key lower. He sounds like he is dying. In other news, IU is number eight in the coaches poll and number seven in the AP. My mind is blown. For the record, I don't think they'll finish the year in the top ten heading into the NCAA tourney, but they did do what they needed to do in a brutal opening to the Big Ten season. Playing three top twenty teams to open conference play is tough, but IU held serve, winning both home games (including against then #2 Ohio State), and losing at Michigan State. They then went on the road and beat Penn State. Now, this might seem like a "well they should have game," but you can never assume anything on the road in the Big Ten.
8:22pm - My playoff picks were off to a great start heading into the Denver - Pittsburgh game ... then I got Tebowed. I don't even know how to express my bewilderment, but consider this: the last three "worst playoff team ever" were the Arizona Cardinals, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos. I picked against all three in their opening round home games. All three one. I am the cooler.
8:25pm - Nick Saban has coached both these teams, in case you didn't know. Furthermore, he has won the national title with both teams. And now he's coaching one against the other. ESPN really wants you to know this because they've mentioned it four times in the ten minutes since I turned on the TV. I don't want you to miss out on that fact. "I wish smiley faces were acceptable for everything" says Jenny. I'm glad she's along for this journey. Musburger is currently giving us a retrospective on the big moments in Super Dome history. Pretty cool.
8:29pm - Coin toss time. I had a laptop chord issue, so I missed who would get the toss. I did catch the mandatory pregame coach interviews. I can't remember the last time we learned something insightful from these things. "Erin Andrews looks good in her purple shirt ... you should mention that" Jenny notes. What shirt?
8:30pm - And now, kickoff. It appears that there will be a home field advantage for LSU, but that shouldn't surprise anyone, as the Super Dome does happen to be located in Louisiana. LSU is receiving the kick, and we are underway. HUGE tackle on the opening kick, and so the tone is set. Jordan Jefferson continues to start for LSU. This is an underrated storyline for the LSU season, as they have gone undefeated to this point despite starting two very different QBs throughout the year. First run up the middle is stuffed; expect lots of defense in this game. A screen picks up some, but a third down will be upcoming. I love watching these defenses, which move quickly and hit hard. Feels like football. Fumble on the third down snap and the Alabama players have to hold back from throwing Jefferson to the ground after the whistle. Three and out for LSU. An insane punt pins Alabama deep. If we assume a defensive struggle, field position will naturally be huge. Alabama controlled field position in the first game and couldn't take advantage. Let's see what LSU can do starting off with good field position today.
8:35pm - Alabama picks up a first down on the first play from scrimmage. Another play action picks up some incremental yardage. Alabama looked to be the better team to me in the first game. They controlled the field position, and they looked more poised. The missed field goals killed them, and ultimately LSU took advantage, but I am in the group that is happy to see a rematch, and I'll go on record as saying that I expect an Alabama victory today. According to sportsbook.com Alabama was a two point favorite heading into this game? Really? I can't believe that. Meanwhile, LSU stops Alabama on third, but the Tide managed to completely flip field position by getting near mid field. The punt is off and goes out of bounds as they punt away.
8:42pm - It appears the Alabama (-2) was an adjusted for the current game situation line. I can't imagine that this game is more than LSU (-2) heading in, since it is technically a neutral field. I've got to remember to look up sports lines prior to game starting, since they want to make them disappear as soon as the ball is kicked off. Six minutes in and we are on our third possession of the game. LSU takes over at the twenty one yard line, but a false start moves them back. That wasn't a great punt, but it shows the respect the Tide has for the LSU return game. Resetting on first and fifteen they go to the shotgun then run in the middle, and pick up a couple. Alabama runs a three four defense, which is rare, it seems, in college football. Jefferson runs the option but falls down after an option that Herbstreet describes accurately as "slow developing." I can't stand Musburger, but Herbie knows his stuff. LSU runs the option again on third and is dropped almost immediately. Another punt forthcoming, and it's another booming punt but Alabama gets a great return. The return man Maze clearly pulls a hamstring on the return then runs out of bounds. Jenny agrees with my assessment, then says "poor kid, he's out for the game." We'll see how good she is from 20 hours away.
8:48pm - My initial thoughts on the upcoming weekend worth of football games, prior to doing any research: I like the Saints over the 49ers, the Pats over T.C. and his Broncos, the Ravens over the Texans, and I'm leaning towards the Giants over the Pack. Call me crazy, but I think the game plan they executed last weekend could beat the Pack this weekend. Either way, if the line is as high as is being first reported (favoring the Pack by as much as 9) I think I'll be taking the points. Alabama now has the ball at the ten and goes to the run, which LSU jumps all over. It is essential that Alabama scores a touch down on this possession, given the way the other game went. Second and goal Alabama audibles, then throws the ball away. The passing game has worked well thus far, but a third and goal from roughly the ten isn't a great spot to be in. Herbie is agreeing with my prior statement about the importance of a TD here. On third down Bama ends up short at the five yard line. Big hit on the Alabama QB. The short yardage kicked for the Tide knocks it through, but, again, the Tigers held them to a field goal.
8:53pm - Jenny is dancing to a discover card commercial ever so slightly. I don't think she notices that I notice. Good times.
8:54pm - A great hit on the ensuing kick return, as I try to determine what the charge on my debit card is. No idea. A great high catch by LSU, and they start to move quick in a semi no-huddle. A first down is picked up, and the tempo feels a bit more manic, but another option read gets him killed. Jefferson resumes with a completion, but another failed third down leads to another great punt. I've determined where the mystery charge came from, so that was at least quick.
9:00pm - Alabama is facing a second and five as Maze returns from the locker room. Alabama picks up a few first downs. With the ball just past the thirty five they run another boot and there is an incredible catch down the sideline by Norwood to end the first quarter. an incredible route that culminated with an insane jump and catch for a gain of 26. At the end of the first quarter Alabama looks more like they are prepared to take the championship mantle than LSU.
9:08pm - The second quarter opens with Alabama narrowly missing a pass inside the ten. Alabama has come out throwing pretty consistently and aggressively, and LSU doesn't look as prepared. The play action has been working really well thus far. A good tuck and run leaves Alabama with a third and three. They run it with their backup running back and get nowhere, putting the team in the same position they were many times last game with a long field goal attempt. Alabama fakes the kick, and it is close. An interesting move by Saban this early in the game. Again, field position is paramount. With the ball at the thirty two you have a forty nine yard field goal, a pooch punt, and a fake/going for it. The spot gives the Tide the first down, and the play goes immediately under review.
9:12pm - The determination was first down by an inch. The ball is now at the twenty eight, and Alabama goes play action again, and the result is an incomplete with a big hit by the linebacker in the flat. LSU is adjusting, ever so slightly. Reports are indicating Maze has returned to the locker room with they hamstring injury. That's a big blow for the Alabama offense, as well as special teams. Now the Tide faces third and seven ... in the shotgun... incomplete over the middle. The fake kick will not result in anything other than an attempt that is seven yards closer. From 42 the kick is blocked. This game feels eerily like the first game at this point: Alabama has momentum, time of possession, but cannot seem to capitalize enough.
9:19pm - I watched the majority of the Meet the Press Republican Primary Debate Saturday, and I have a few quick hit thoughts on the current standings and the upcoming primaries:
- for Romney, you've got to be cautiously excited about where you sit. If you hold strong in New Hampshire you've managed to take the first two states, which is rare in a heavily contested year. If you can then go to South Carolina and actually win (a distinct possibility if Santorum, Perry, Paul and Gingrich split the conservative vote), you've just won the nomination in the first three states most likely. Mitt's strategy at the debates generally show a candidate who is very aware of his position. He's playing defense, trying hard not to trip himself up, and trying to rise above the fray.
- For the rest of the candidates, after an entire season running up to this moment trying to establish the "anti-Mitt" we've ended up with an even more fractured, divided party than ever before. The line of the process, thus far, came from Huntsman when he said that he hoped the party would return to sanity after this cycle.
9:20pm - another false start and then a screen that goes nowhere. Dear Uncle, if you read this far, I promise you that there is tackling going on in this game. Third and seven for LSU ... incomplete. LSU again falters, and Alabama gets the ball right back.
9:26pm - Alabama again doesn't get great position after the punt, and now faces third and six. Another huge hit from the LSU secondary, but 'Bama picks up the first down. LSU is playing the run very well today, but 'Bama continues to move the ball courtesy of a solid passing game. Richardson immediately runs twice for 12 yards to prove my analysis of the LSU running game wrong. The Alabama offensive line is huge; I bet they outweigh the IU line by a solid 200lbs.
9:30pm - A late hit by LSU isn't called. In the NFL that would have been called, but they are letting these teams play. I can see a world in which college football is more "football" like than the NFL in a few years, because with the players not fully developed in strength and speed you can still let them hit without all the major repercussions. Richardson picks up a bunch to continue to prove me wrong. Alabama returns to the passing game, and goes incomplete. At this point Bama has ten first downs to LSU's one ... but much like the first game 'Bama is struggling to score and leaving the door open for the Tigers. Herbie is confused as to why 'Bama continues to pull Richardson when they get into Tigers territory. It does seem odd to pull your Heisman finalist when you get close to scoring.
9:32pm - 3rd and 1 for the Tide, and they are stopped, but again it is a handoff to the backup running back. The replay shows that the back killed himself by stretching the play instead of just diving forward. A 34 yard field goal is dead center and good, so now Bama is up 6-0. "Here we go again" says Musburger. Amen. LSU has four punts in four possessions, and only 26 yards on offense.
9:35pm - Barry Larkin will join Ron Santo in induction to the baseball Hall of Fame this year, it was announced today. I think Larkin was a very good player, sometimes even a great player, but I never feared him when the Cubs played him. To be honest, I feared Carlos Lee more than Barry Larkin. If Larkin is in the Hall of Fame how is Alan Trammel not? It was a lackluster class, and I get that, but that doesn't mean you have to put someone in just for the sake of doing it. Also, in case I haven't stated it here, I'd like the baseball writers, the veterans committee, and everyone associated with holding out until Santo died to put him in to realize that you are, in fact, bad people. The man was a no brainer Hall of Famer. You've put in many questionable players in my lifetime ... Dawson, Rice, and Sutter to name a few ... but he was a no brain absolute Hall of Fame player. I don't know who will be speaking for Santo, but I hope that they stick it to the group that held him out for no good reason.
9:40pm - LSU faces 3rd and 5, after icing their QB with a timeout. Jefferson lines up in the shot gun, then audibles as the clock runs down. He fumbles the snap again, picks it up, and falls short again ... all this after the time out. Les Miles is looking a bit over matched at this point. Herbie points out that Jefferson was looking at the Alabama defense instead of the snap. Another good punt; yet again, the LSU punter has to be the MVP of their team thus far. Alabama has two minutes to move the ball down the field before half, but also has all their timeouts and the college stop the clock after first down rule. From what we've seen so far that is a task that can be accomplished.
9:42pm - Third and two, and Alabama is letting the clock run. They seem happy to have the lead heading into the half. Richardson picks up the first down again, and the QB throws the ball to the flat for no gain. Alabama seems perfectly content to go into half up two field goals. Musburger and Herbstreet seem befuddled by Alabama's removing of Richardson when they get into LSU territory. 2nd and 12 ... completion to the LSU 45. Alabama picks up a few more, then uses their second time out. Twenty One seconds left, and Alabama needs to pick up about twenty more yards to start feeling good about the field goal attempt. A couple of good catches get the Tide down for a 41 yard field goal attempt. The kick is up and good. A huge kick for Alabama to make it a two score game heading in to half time. 9-0 Alabama is a great place to be, and you've got to figure that Saban is happy being up two scores with the ball coming at the start of the second half ... but there is no doubt he'd feel better if they were up 17-0.
9:55pm - A few thoughts during halftime:
- The take away, for me, of the Denver - Pittsburgh game had little to do with the Broncos. It was how old Pittsburgh looked all around. Big Ben will be okay when he recovers, but the offensive line in Pittsburgh continues to be its Achilles heel. How many years in a row will this be the case? We've got to be going on four or five now. Furthermore, the defense looked old and ineffective in trying to stop a very pedestrian Broncos attack. I expect that New England is ready to roll, and will be ready to take it to the Broncos. I expect that Denver expects that they had their fun and will likely go home, although I also expect that they won't talk like that because the one person who undoubtedly believes they will with the Super Bowl is T.C. himself, and he won't want to hear it.
- The Bulls begin a stretch of seven games in nine nights, going three straight, one off, two on, one off, and two on. If they come out of that stretch five and two I'll be happy. The team looks as good as last year, but as we found out, that wasn't quite good enough. Furthermore, the Heat are much better than last year, and certainly much deeper. A flash over to comcast sports net shows the Bulls up fifteen on the Pistons with six and a half left. So far so good.
- I would be completely remiss if I failed to mention that a long time POV reader, lovingly known as "Coach" passed away 12/29/11. Coach was a brilliant mind, and intellectual sparring with him would challenge you to rethink your positions. You always needed to have your facts in order if you were going to debate a topic with him, and his drive to know more always pushed me to do the same. It was indeed his time, and I am happy he is at peace, but no matter how many people read this blog in the ensuing years it will always feel a bit empty now that one of the two charter members who have been reading me since my first post has left us to be with God. As I sat in his memorial service this week I was taken by the many roles this man, my Grandfather, played in my life. I know that I wouldn't have near the diverse interest in things I have now, including sports, music, politics, and astronomy. Rest in peace Coach ... you are missed, will be missed, and will always be a part of all of us.
10:12pm - Alabama has the ball to start the half, and gets it to the thirty two yard line. Another big throw takes the ball inside LSU territory after a pick up of nineteen. A screen goes way down to the twenty two. Maze will be out the remainder of the game, and so Jenny was right in her diagnosis from 20 hours away. Hopefully she'll be happy that I put this in here.
10:15pm - 2nd and ten and a pickup of a few by Hanks leads the Tide to another third down deep in LSU territory. A deflection nearly leads to an INT, but the Tide will have yet another field goal attempt, their fifth of the game thus far. This kick will be from 35 out ... another solid kick right through. Alabama has now doubled their score from the earlier game, but they continue to stall in LSU territory, leaving the door open for LSU.
10:18pm - Two words: Jabba Cupcake.
10:19pm - Okay, I'm back, that just killed me. LSU gets the ball and we see if they were able to make any major adjustments at the half. Jefferson has a wide open receiver and overthrows him. Again, even when they get a break (in this case a free release) they can't execute. Alabama allows the same play to happen again, and for the second time today there is a LSU first down. They attacked the same place, making me think they saw something at the half. As an aside, the officials are letting them play; there have been a number of hard hits, late hits, and other plays that would have been penalties in the NFL games yesterday and today ... no flags. Jefferson is sacked by Upshaw, and now LSU faces 3rd and long again.
10:22pm - 3rd and 14 for Jefferson and the Tigers. He takes a deep drop and runs it, but is forced out of bounds short of midfield, and so LSU prepares to punt again. At some point LSU is going to have to go for the trick play, going deep into the playbook, but this isn't it with ten minutes left in the third quarter. Another deep kick ... penalty flag, right after I look at Jenny with exasperation about the lack of a flag. They call an unnecessary roughness after the Alabama player clearly calls for a fair catch and is hit. The replay confirms that it is, indeed, clearly a fair catch.
10:27pm - The personal foul helps to move the ball out to the twenty five, and Bama again comes out throwing and completes the pass. I'm a little surprised that the Tide keeps throwing, but obviously Saban isn't going to play it conservative after he lost a conservative game last time around. Play action and he overthrows a wide open Hanks down the sideline. Second and ten now, but I continue to be amazed that Alabama is not just throwing, but throwing successfully. They run with Richardson, and lose a yard, so 3rd and 11 comes up. 'Bama has the ball around midfield. The first down throw, second down run, leaves a long play to convert, and the Tide takes a dump off for a few, but a punt will be upcoming. By my top of the head count this is only the second punt of the game for Alabama, and they punted away the last time, and I expect they'll do the same. The gunner misses the ball at the one yard line, and so the ball comes out to the twenty. As a side note, if Musburger says "honey badger" when referencing Mathieu again I might throw my laptop at the TV. It's getting a tad annoying. Or is it "hunting badger?" I can't tell, it just needs to stop.
10:34pm - A shot of Bourbon Street makes me long to be back at Bourbon street. Boatloads of fun down there. Yet another terrible option play loses two for LSU. Jefferson isn't exactly T.C. when running the option. He's not even Eric Crouch. Jefferson steps up in the pocket, tosses the ball out, and it ends up right in the hands of an Alabama player. His back turned to block, which ended up leading to the INT. The player who picked the ball off is injured and Jenny is upset she can't see the play clearly enough, but she speculates there is a broken arm. Commercial break, and if Alabama can actually put the ball in the endzone here they might put this game away already.
10:37pm - Chiefs have hired Romeo Crennel as their head coach. He seemed like a deadbeat in Cleveland, but it was properly asked "what have they done since he left?" The answer, of course, is nothing, and so maybe we shouldn't be too quick to judge Romeo. Still, I never thought he'd get a second chance, as old as he is. Good for him.
10:38pm - Mosely is injured, and the Tide takes the ball, and Richardson is in, but loses a yard. The Tide must feel like they should capitalize on the huge turnover by LSU, and Herbie wonders if Jarret Lee will come in for Jefferson due to his ineffective play. LSU has to hold Alabama to a field goal to avoid the game going to a three score game. Third and Seven from the twenty four yard line ... a wrong route leads to an incomplete pass in the endzone, and Shelley, the kicker, comes in for his sixth field goal attempt. He's good from 23, 34, 41 and 35. He had a 42 yarder blocked, and pushes this 41 yarder right for a miss. A big stop for LSU, and Alabama can't feel like they are out of the woods yet. The LSU defacto home crowd boos Jefferson when he comes back in at QB. They want Lee.
10:42pm - Jefferson in the shotgun, throws a screen for four, then another screen on the opposite side of the field for a loss of four. Jefferson is not exactly inspiring confidence at the present time. LSU is zero for six on third down ... Jefferson is dropped for another sack at the seventeen yard line. The Alabama defense looks like the best in the nation, bar none. LSU has been good today, but they've been able to pass on them. LSU has not been able to do anything yet against 'Bama. A (relatively speaking) poor punt helps 'Bama to get a return into LSU territory to start this next possession. By my count the Tide have had eight possessions, resulting in two punts, two missed field goals, and four made field goals. A hand off goes for twelve to the thirty six after a tough run.
10:46pm - Seventeen first downs for 'Bama to 2 by LSU. More tough running down to the 25, again by the backup. Herbie wonders if the LSU defense is wearing down. Given the time of possession I can't imagine they aren't to a certain degree. At this point the LSU defense has to feel like they need to score twice to win this game, because the offense has 56 total yards. Richardson back in on 2nd and ten ... play action, down to the one yard line, then ruled incomplete. Gibson was the receiver ... good call, as the receiver drops the ball after being hit by the safety. A HUGE drop right there, as it is now 3rd and ten, leading to a timeout by Alabama.
10:49pm - Shelley will come out again after the 'Bama QB avoids a big sack that would have knocked them out of field goal range. A seventh field goal attempt for Alabama. LSU has allowed lots of yards between the 20s, but has held firm. A 44 yard attempt.... right through. He is now 5 of 7, and the young man has a career long field goal in the national championship game. Good for Saban for continuing to roll the same kid out, who we were told looked great in pre game warm ups. Great coaching move, rather than bringing in their "long" field goal kicker for the 40+ yard attempts. He's only 2 for 4 on the 40+ kicks, but his confidence is rising. 15 nothing at this point is a two score game with 22 seconds left in the third quarter. LSU's special team advantage has not been great thus far, and on the kick off 'Bama continues to hold stout.
10:54pm - Jefferson comes back out again, and fires a completion for a pickup of about seven, which takes us to the end of the fourth quarter. "The sands of time running out in New Orleans" Musburger muses.
10:58pm - The 4th quarter opens with an Alabama helmet flying off on the LSU run up the gut for two. 3rd and 1 for LSU who finally picks up a third down, and only their third first down of the game. All Alabama cares about? The clock keeps running, and the first minute of the final quarter is gone. Herbie points out that LSU already looks beaten on the sideline, and it's easy to see that Alabama is hitting much harder. Erin Andrews points out that the LSU coaches are urging the the players to get up and get life in them. Jarrett Lee stands on the sideline staring on the field, wondering how he isn't in the game, and LSU faces 3rd and 3. They can't convert this one, but don't they have to think about going for it at this point on 4th down? You need every down you can, every chance you have, and the game of field position hasn't worked out thus far. 'Bama will take over at the 17.
11:02pm - The underrated part of this story right now is how many AP voters vowed to vote for LSU to be national champion regardless of the outcome of this game. If enough did that it would split the national title for the first time since 2003 I believe. Although, unless LSU has a miraculous comeback I can't imagine how anyone could refuse to vote for Alabama given the way they've dominated them. Alabama hasn't beaten themselves and they have dominated the game.
11:04pm - I don't understand why these games have to start so late; I'm ready to go to bed and we only just started the fourth quarter. If Alabama would grace me with a TD here I might sign off early and go to bed. Bama runs on the first play, and again on 2nd down for minimal gains. Musburger informs us that there has never been a shut out in a BCS bowl game, let alone a BCS championship game. Alabama has yet to allow LSU past mid field. LSU's defense finally gets the play they need for a big sack on 3rd down, forcing a punt from deep inside the Tide's own side of the field. For the first time today they have field position on their side on offense, as 'Bama punts from their own end zone. The punter gets a good punt off, and Mathieu doesn't do anything other than make a risky pick up and give Musburger a chance to say "honey badger" four more times.
11:07pm - LSU takes over with less than ten minutes to go, and picks up five on the ground. Jefferson picks up a few more on a scramble. Third and two is a good quick toss for the first down. The ball is finally at mid field for LSU, and Jefferson avoids the rush and gets the ball down to the 31, moving the ball into Tide territory for the first time today. If LSU scores a TD quickly here we have a game still. Yet again Jefferson runs a terrible option, waiting way too long before pitching.
11:12pm - 2nd and 13 after the busted option, and another false start. Alabama has no penalties thus far, yet another reason why they have simply out executed LSU in every aspect of the game. 2nd and 18 now, Jefferson throws it into the ground. 3rd and 18 now ... Jefferson is hit as he throws, leading to an incomplete. 6:21 left ... LSU has to go for this you'd think. 4th and 18 ... Jefferson is strip sacked and Alabama recovers.
11:17pm - As Alabama moves into "run as much time off the clock as we can" mode, I am just totally impressed with how complete this team played this game. I felt, after the last game, that the better team had not one, and this game makes it seem like I was correct in that assessment. Alabama did not get near the publicity this year, but they have perhaps the best defense I've ever seen in college football. They tackle, they contain, they pressure ... they can do it all. I understand that LSU beat a myriad of good teams throughout the year, starting with a good Oregon team, including this Alabama team, and the rest of their SEC schedule. That does count for something, but Alabama is the better team and the better team will win this. Richardson goes to the endzone to break LSU's back, and the Tide will now be up 22-0. This game was trench warfare for most of the game, but Alabama wore the Tigers down, and now have put them away. Shelley misses the extra point, so the game is 21-0. Uncanny.
11:21pm - My final thoughts for the night are this: it is completely bogus that Michigan, Clemson, VA Tech, and West Virginia played in BCS Bowls, while Boise State, who was much higher in the BCS rankings played against a 6-6 team in a who cares bowl because they missed one field goal. The Broncos were one of the six best teams in college football, and they were robbed by a system that focuses on big conferences, and the money they crave, rather than the football matchups we want to see. I'm glad we got 'Bama - LSU, but we could have also seen Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford, Georgia, Wisconsin, Boise State and one more team (West VA?) play in the other games and I would have been much happier. Boise deserved a shot against a top tier program. Michigan, Clemson, VA Tech and West Virginia didn't earn that same chance. I'm tired of a system which rewards where you play over how you play. It's stupid, it's greedy, and it doesn't accurately determine the best team in the nation. I have no idea if LSU or Alabama could really beat Boise; I think so, but I have no way of knowing. And so, with four minutes left, and the Tide up by three touch downs, I sign off. I know it's not the Super Bowl, but this just may have to do sports fans. Enjoy the new year, and I'll be back by week's ends with my official NFL Playoff picks.
8:16pm - Welcome to the POV's live breakdown of the National Championship Game. If this game is half as entertaining, close, and hard fought as the first LSU - Alabama match up was you'll be very pleased with the results of this blog. Otherwise, I might just stop half way through. Either way I do have some bad news: I'm most likely unable to do my fourth annual Super Bowl live blog due to working obligations. In light of this, please accept my apologies, and take this live blog in its' place. If I find a way to not work the Super Bowl, you'll just have to suck it up and get a two for one.
8:19pm - I think the guy singing the national anthem should have started half a key lower. He sounds like he is dying. In other news, IU is number eight in the coaches poll and number seven in the AP. My mind is blown. For the record, I don't think they'll finish the year in the top ten heading into the NCAA tourney, but they did do what they needed to do in a brutal opening to the Big Ten season. Playing three top twenty teams to open conference play is tough, but IU held serve, winning both home games (including against then #2 Ohio State), and losing at Michigan State. They then went on the road and beat Penn State. Now, this might seem like a "well they should have game," but you can never assume anything on the road in the Big Ten.
8:22pm - My playoff picks were off to a great start heading into the Denver - Pittsburgh game ... then I got Tebowed. I don't even know how to express my bewilderment, but consider this: the last three "worst playoff team ever" were the Arizona Cardinals, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos. I picked against all three in their opening round home games. All three one. I am the cooler.
8:25pm - Nick Saban has coached both these teams, in case you didn't know. Furthermore, he has won the national title with both teams. And now he's coaching one against the other. ESPN really wants you to know this because they've mentioned it four times in the ten minutes since I turned on the TV. I don't want you to miss out on that fact. "I wish smiley faces were acceptable for everything" says Jenny. I'm glad she's along for this journey. Musburger is currently giving us a retrospective on the big moments in Super Dome history. Pretty cool.
8:29pm - Coin toss time. I had a laptop chord issue, so I missed who would get the toss. I did catch the mandatory pregame coach interviews. I can't remember the last time we learned something insightful from these things. "Erin Andrews looks good in her purple shirt ... you should mention that" Jenny notes. What shirt?
8:30pm - And now, kickoff. It appears that there will be a home field advantage for LSU, but that shouldn't surprise anyone, as the Super Dome does happen to be located in Louisiana. LSU is receiving the kick, and we are underway. HUGE tackle on the opening kick, and so the tone is set. Jordan Jefferson continues to start for LSU. This is an underrated storyline for the LSU season, as they have gone undefeated to this point despite starting two very different QBs throughout the year. First run up the middle is stuffed; expect lots of defense in this game. A screen picks up some, but a third down will be upcoming. I love watching these defenses, which move quickly and hit hard. Feels like football. Fumble on the third down snap and the Alabama players have to hold back from throwing Jefferson to the ground after the whistle. Three and out for LSU. An insane punt pins Alabama deep. If we assume a defensive struggle, field position will naturally be huge. Alabama controlled field position in the first game and couldn't take advantage. Let's see what LSU can do starting off with good field position today.
8:35pm - Alabama picks up a first down on the first play from scrimmage. Another play action picks up some incremental yardage. Alabama looked to be the better team to me in the first game. They controlled the field position, and they looked more poised. The missed field goals killed them, and ultimately LSU took advantage, but I am in the group that is happy to see a rematch, and I'll go on record as saying that I expect an Alabama victory today. According to sportsbook.com Alabama was a two point favorite heading into this game? Really? I can't believe that. Meanwhile, LSU stops Alabama on third, but the Tide managed to completely flip field position by getting near mid field. The punt is off and goes out of bounds as they punt away.
8:42pm - It appears the Alabama (-2) was an adjusted for the current game situation line. I can't imagine that this game is more than LSU (-2) heading in, since it is technically a neutral field. I've got to remember to look up sports lines prior to game starting, since they want to make them disappear as soon as the ball is kicked off. Six minutes in and we are on our third possession of the game. LSU takes over at the twenty one yard line, but a false start moves them back. That wasn't a great punt, but it shows the respect the Tide has for the LSU return game. Resetting on first and fifteen they go to the shotgun then run in the middle, and pick up a couple. Alabama runs a three four defense, which is rare, it seems, in college football. Jefferson runs the option but falls down after an option that Herbstreet describes accurately as "slow developing." I can't stand Musburger, but Herbie knows his stuff. LSU runs the option again on third and is dropped almost immediately. Another punt forthcoming, and it's another booming punt but Alabama gets a great return. The return man Maze clearly pulls a hamstring on the return then runs out of bounds. Jenny agrees with my assessment, then says "poor kid, he's out for the game." We'll see how good she is from 20 hours away.
8:48pm - My initial thoughts on the upcoming weekend worth of football games, prior to doing any research: I like the Saints over the 49ers, the Pats over T.C. and his Broncos, the Ravens over the Texans, and I'm leaning towards the Giants over the Pack. Call me crazy, but I think the game plan they executed last weekend could beat the Pack this weekend. Either way, if the line is as high as is being first reported (favoring the Pack by as much as 9) I think I'll be taking the points. Alabama now has the ball at the ten and goes to the run, which LSU jumps all over. It is essential that Alabama scores a touch down on this possession, given the way the other game went. Second and goal Alabama audibles, then throws the ball away. The passing game has worked well thus far, but a third and goal from roughly the ten isn't a great spot to be in. Herbie is agreeing with my prior statement about the importance of a TD here. On third down Bama ends up short at the five yard line. Big hit on the Alabama QB. The short yardage kicked for the Tide knocks it through, but, again, the Tigers held them to a field goal.
8:53pm - Jenny is dancing to a discover card commercial ever so slightly. I don't think she notices that I notice. Good times.
8:54pm - A great hit on the ensuing kick return, as I try to determine what the charge on my debit card is. No idea. A great high catch by LSU, and they start to move quick in a semi no-huddle. A first down is picked up, and the tempo feels a bit more manic, but another option read gets him killed. Jefferson resumes with a completion, but another failed third down leads to another great punt. I've determined where the mystery charge came from, so that was at least quick.
9:00pm - Alabama is facing a second and five as Maze returns from the locker room. Alabama picks up a few first downs. With the ball just past the thirty five they run another boot and there is an incredible catch down the sideline by Norwood to end the first quarter. an incredible route that culminated with an insane jump and catch for a gain of 26. At the end of the first quarter Alabama looks more like they are prepared to take the championship mantle than LSU.
9:08pm - The second quarter opens with Alabama narrowly missing a pass inside the ten. Alabama has come out throwing pretty consistently and aggressively, and LSU doesn't look as prepared. The play action has been working really well thus far. A good tuck and run leaves Alabama with a third and three. They run it with their backup running back and get nowhere, putting the team in the same position they were many times last game with a long field goal attempt. Alabama fakes the kick, and it is close. An interesting move by Saban this early in the game. Again, field position is paramount. With the ball at the thirty two you have a forty nine yard field goal, a pooch punt, and a fake/going for it. The spot gives the Tide the first down, and the play goes immediately under review.
9:12pm - The determination was first down by an inch. The ball is now at the twenty eight, and Alabama goes play action again, and the result is an incomplete with a big hit by the linebacker in the flat. LSU is adjusting, ever so slightly. Reports are indicating Maze has returned to the locker room with they hamstring injury. That's a big blow for the Alabama offense, as well as special teams. Now the Tide faces third and seven ... in the shotgun... incomplete over the middle. The fake kick will not result in anything other than an attempt that is seven yards closer. From 42 the kick is blocked. This game feels eerily like the first game at this point: Alabama has momentum, time of possession, but cannot seem to capitalize enough.
9:19pm - I watched the majority of the Meet the Press Republican Primary Debate Saturday, and I have a few quick hit thoughts on the current standings and the upcoming primaries:
- for Romney, you've got to be cautiously excited about where you sit. If you hold strong in New Hampshire you've managed to take the first two states, which is rare in a heavily contested year. If you can then go to South Carolina and actually win (a distinct possibility if Santorum, Perry, Paul and Gingrich split the conservative vote), you've just won the nomination in the first three states most likely. Mitt's strategy at the debates generally show a candidate who is very aware of his position. He's playing defense, trying hard not to trip himself up, and trying to rise above the fray.
- For the rest of the candidates, after an entire season running up to this moment trying to establish the "anti-Mitt" we've ended up with an even more fractured, divided party than ever before. The line of the process, thus far, came from Huntsman when he said that he hoped the party would return to sanity after this cycle.
9:20pm - another false start and then a screen that goes nowhere. Dear Uncle, if you read this far, I promise you that there is tackling going on in this game. Third and seven for LSU ... incomplete. LSU again falters, and Alabama gets the ball right back.
9:26pm - Alabama again doesn't get great position after the punt, and now faces third and six. Another huge hit from the LSU secondary, but 'Bama picks up the first down. LSU is playing the run very well today, but 'Bama continues to move the ball courtesy of a solid passing game. Richardson immediately runs twice for 12 yards to prove my analysis of the LSU running game wrong. The Alabama offensive line is huge; I bet they outweigh the IU line by a solid 200lbs.
9:30pm - A late hit by LSU isn't called. In the NFL that would have been called, but they are letting these teams play. I can see a world in which college football is more "football" like than the NFL in a few years, because with the players not fully developed in strength and speed you can still let them hit without all the major repercussions. Richardson picks up a bunch to continue to prove me wrong. Alabama returns to the passing game, and goes incomplete. At this point Bama has ten first downs to LSU's one ... but much like the first game 'Bama is struggling to score and leaving the door open for the Tigers. Herbie is confused as to why 'Bama continues to pull Richardson when they get into Tigers territory. It does seem odd to pull your Heisman finalist when you get close to scoring.
9:32pm - 3rd and 1 for the Tide, and they are stopped, but again it is a handoff to the backup running back. The replay shows that the back killed himself by stretching the play instead of just diving forward. A 34 yard field goal is dead center and good, so now Bama is up 6-0. "Here we go again" says Musburger. Amen. LSU has four punts in four possessions, and only 26 yards on offense.
9:35pm - Barry Larkin will join Ron Santo in induction to the baseball Hall of Fame this year, it was announced today. I think Larkin was a very good player, sometimes even a great player, but I never feared him when the Cubs played him. To be honest, I feared Carlos Lee more than Barry Larkin. If Larkin is in the Hall of Fame how is Alan Trammel not? It was a lackluster class, and I get that, but that doesn't mean you have to put someone in just for the sake of doing it. Also, in case I haven't stated it here, I'd like the baseball writers, the veterans committee, and everyone associated with holding out until Santo died to put him in to realize that you are, in fact, bad people. The man was a no brainer Hall of Famer. You've put in many questionable players in my lifetime ... Dawson, Rice, and Sutter to name a few ... but he was a no brain absolute Hall of Fame player. I don't know who will be speaking for Santo, but I hope that they stick it to the group that held him out for no good reason.
9:40pm - LSU faces 3rd and 5, after icing their QB with a timeout. Jefferson lines up in the shot gun, then audibles as the clock runs down. He fumbles the snap again, picks it up, and falls short again ... all this after the time out. Les Miles is looking a bit over matched at this point. Herbie points out that Jefferson was looking at the Alabama defense instead of the snap. Another good punt; yet again, the LSU punter has to be the MVP of their team thus far. Alabama has two minutes to move the ball down the field before half, but also has all their timeouts and the college stop the clock after first down rule. From what we've seen so far that is a task that can be accomplished.
9:42pm - Third and two, and Alabama is letting the clock run. They seem happy to have the lead heading into the half. Richardson picks up the first down again, and the QB throws the ball to the flat for no gain. Alabama seems perfectly content to go into half up two field goals. Musburger and Herbstreet seem befuddled by Alabama's removing of Richardson when they get into LSU territory. 2nd and 12 ... completion to the LSU 45. Alabama picks up a few more, then uses their second time out. Twenty One seconds left, and Alabama needs to pick up about twenty more yards to start feeling good about the field goal attempt. A couple of good catches get the Tide down for a 41 yard field goal attempt. The kick is up and good. A huge kick for Alabama to make it a two score game heading in to half time. 9-0 Alabama is a great place to be, and you've got to figure that Saban is happy being up two scores with the ball coming at the start of the second half ... but there is no doubt he'd feel better if they were up 17-0.
9:55pm - A few thoughts during halftime:
- The take away, for me, of the Denver - Pittsburgh game had little to do with the Broncos. It was how old Pittsburgh looked all around. Big Ben will be okay when he recovers, but the offensive line in Pittsburgh continues to be its Achilles heel. How many years in a row will this be the case? We've got to be going on four or five now. Furthermore, the defense looked old and ineffective in trying to stop a very pedestrian Broncos attack. I expect that New England is ready to roll, and will be ready to take it to the Broncos. I expect that Denver expects that they had their fun and will likely go home, although I also expect that they won't talk like that because the one person who undoubtedly believes they will with the Super Bowl is T.C. himself, and he won't want to hear it.
- The Bulls begin a stretch of seven games in nine nights, going three straight, one off, two on, one off, and two on. If they come out of that stretch five and two I'll be happy. The team looks as good as last year, but as we found out, that wasn't quite good enough. Furthermore, the Heat are much better than last year, and certainly much deeper. A flash over to comcast sports net shows the Bulls up fifteen on the Pistons with six and a half left. So far so good.
- I would be completely remiss if I failed to mention that a long time POV reader, lovingly known as "Coach" passed away 12/29/11. Coach was a brilliant mind, and intellectual sparring with him would challenge you to rethink your positions. You always needed to have your facts in order if you were going to debate a topic with him, and his drive to know more always pushed me to do the same. It was indeed his time, and I am happy he is at peace, but no matter how many people read this blog in the ensuing years it will always feel a bit empty now that one of the two charter members who have been reading me since my first post has left us to be with God. As I sat in his memorial service this week I was taken by the many roles this man, my Grandfather, played in my life. I know that I wouldn't have near the diverse interest in things I have now, including sports, music, politics, and astronomy. Rest in peace Coach ... you are missed, will be missed, and will always be a part of all of us.
10:12pm - Alabama has the ball to start the half, and gets it to the thirty two yard line. Another big throw takes the ball inside LSU territory after a pick up of nineteen. A screen goes way down to the twenty two. Maze will be out the remainder of the game, and so Jenny was right in her diagnosis from 20 hours away. Hopefully she'll be happy that I put this in here.
10:15pm - 2nd and ten and a pickup of a few by Hanks leads the Tide to another third down deep in LSU territory. A deflection nearly leads to an INT, but the Tide will have yet another field goal attempt, their fifth of the game thus far. This kick will be from 35 out ... another solid kick right through. Alabama has now doubled their score from the earlier game, but they continue to stall in LSU territory, leaving the door open for LSU.
10:18pm - Two words: Jabba Cupcake.
10:19pm - Okay, I'm back, that just killed me. LSU gets the ball and we see if they were able to make any major adjustments at the half. Jefferson has a wide open receiver and overthrows him. Again, even when they get a break (in this case a free release) they can't execute. Alabama allows the same play to happen again, and for the second time today there is a LSU first down. They attacked the same place, making me think they saw something at the half. As an aside, the officials are letting them play; there have been a number of hard hits, late hits, and other plays that would have been penalties in the NFL games yesterday and today ... no flags. Jefferson is sacked by Upshaw, and now LSU faces 3rd and long again.
10:22pm - 3rd and 14 for Jefferson and the Tigers. He takes a deep drop and runs it, but is forced out of bounds short of midfield, and so LSU prepares to punt again. At some point LSU is going to have to go for the trick play, going deep into the playbook, but this isn't it with ten minutes left in the third quarter. Another deep kick ... penalty flag, right after I look at Jenny with exasperation about the lack of a flag. They call an unnecessary roughness after the Alabama player clearly calls for a fair catch and is hit. The replay confirms that it is, indeed, clearly a fair catch.
10:27pm - The personal foul helps to move the ball out to the twenty five, and Bama again comes out throwing and completes the pass. I'm a little surprised that the Tide keeps throwing, but obviously Saban isn't going to play it conservative after he lost a conservative game last time around. Play action and he overthrows a wide open Hanks down the sideline. Second and ten now, but I continue to be amazed that Alabama is not just throwing, but throwing successfully. They run with Richardson, and lose a yard, so 3rd and 11 comes up. 'Bama has the ball around midfield. The first down throw, second down run, leaves a long play to convert, and the Tide takes a dump off for a few, but a punt will be upcoming. By my top of the head count this is only the second punt of the game for Alabama, and they punted away the last time, and I expect they'll do the same. The gunner misses the ball at the one yard line, and so the ball comes out to the twenty. As a side note, if Musburger says "honey badger" when referencing Mathieu again I might throw my laptop at the TV. It's getting a tad annoying. Or is it "hunting badger?" I can't tell, it just needs to stop.
10:34pm - A shot of Bourbon Street makes me long to be back at Bourbon street. Boatloads of fun down there. Yet another terrible option play loses two for LSU. Jefferson isn't exactly T.C. when running the option. He's not even Eric Crouch. Jefferson steps up in the pocket, tosses the ball out, and it ends up right in the hands of an Alabama player. His back turned to block, which ended up leading to the INT. The player who picked the ball off is injured and Jenny is upset she can't see the play clearly enough, but she speculates there is a broken arm. Commercial break, and if Alabama can actually put the ball in the endzone here they might put this game away already.
10:37pm - Chiefs have hired Romeo Crennel as their head coach. He seemed like a deadbeat in Cleveland, but it was properly asked "what have they done since he left?" The answer, of course, is nothing, and so maybe we shouldn't be too quick to judge Romeo. Still, I never thought he'd get a second chance, as old as he is. Good for him.
10:38pm - Mosely is injured, and the Tide takes the ball, and Richardson is in, but loses a yard. The Tide must feel like they should capitalize on the huge turnover by LSU, and Herbie wonders if Jarret Lee will come in for Jefferson due to his ineffective play. LSU has to hold Alabama to a field goal to avoid the game going to a three score game. Third and Seven from the twenty four yard line ... a wrong route leads to an incomplete pass in the endzone, and Shelley, the kicker, comes in for his sixth field goal attempt. He's good from 23, 34, 41 and 35. He had a 42 yarder blocked, and pushes this 41 yarder right for a miss. A big stop for LSU, and Alabama can't feel like they are out of the woods yet. The LSU defacto home crowd boos Jefferson when he comes back in at QB. They want Lee.
10:42pm - Jefferson in the shotgun, throws a screen for four, then another screen on the opposite side of the field for a loss of four. Jefferson is not exactly inspiring confidence at the present time. LSU is zero for six on third down ... Jefferson is dropped for another sack at the seventeen yard line. The Alabama defense looks like the best in the nation, bar none. LSU has been good today, but they've been able to pass on them. LSU has not been able to do anything yet against 'Bama. A (relatively speaking) poor punt helps 'Bama to get a return into LSU territory to start this next possession. By my count the Tide have had eight possessions, resulting in two punts, two missed field goals, and four made field goals. A hand off goes for twelve to the thirty six after a tough run.
10:46pm - Seventeen first downs for 'Bama to 2 by LSU. More tough running down to the 25, again by the backup. Herbie wonders if the LSU defense is wearing down. Given the time of possession I can't imagine they aren't to a certain degree. At this point the LSU defense has to feel like they need to score twice to win this game, because the offense has 56 total yards. Richardson back in on 2nd and ten ... play action, down to the one yard line, then ruled incomplete. Gibson was the receiver ... good call, as the receiver drops the ball after being hit by the safety. A HUGE drop right there, as it is now 3rd and ten, leading to a timeout by Alabama.
10:49pm - Shelley will come out again after the 'Bama QB avoids a big sack that would have knocked them out of field goal range. A seventh field goal attempt for Alabama. LSU has allowed lots of yards between the 20s, but has held firm. A 44 yard attempt.... right through. He is now 5 of 7, and the young man has a career long field goal in the national championship game. Good for Saban for continuing to roll the same kid out, who we were told looked great in pre game warm ups. Great coaching move, rather than bringing in their "long" field goal kicker for the 40+ yard attempts. He's only 2 for 4 on the 40+ kicks, but his confidence is rising. 15 nothing at this point is a two score game with 22 seconds left in the third quarter. LSU's special team advantage has not been great thus far, and on the kick off 'Bama continues to hold stout.
10:54pm - Jefferson comes back out again, and fires a completion for a pickup of about seven, which takes us to the end of the fourth quarter. "The sands of time running out in New Orleans" Musburger muses.
10:58pm - The 4th quarter opens with an Alabama helmet flying off on the LSU run up the gut for two. 3rd and 1 for LSU who finally picks up a third down, and only their third first down of the game. All Alabama cares about? The clock keeps running, and the first minute of the final quarter is gone. Herbie points out that LSU already looks beaten on the sideline, and it's easy to see that Alabama is hitting much harder. Erin Andrews points out that the LSU coaches are urging the the players to get up and get life in them. Jarrett Lee stands on the sideline staring on the field, wondering how he isn't in the game, and LSU faces 3rd and 3. They can't convert this one, but don't they have to think about going for it at this point on 4th down? You need every down you can, every chance you have, and the game of field position hasn't worked out thus far. 'Bama will take over at the 17.
11:02pm - The underrated part of this story right now is how many AP voters vowed to vote for LSU to be national champion regardless of the outcome of this game. If enough did that it would split the national title for the first time since 2003 I believe. Although, unless LSU has a miraculous comeback I can't imagine how anyone could refuse to vote for Alabama given the way they've dominated them. Alabama hasn't beaten themselves and they have dominated the game.
11:04pm - I don't understand why these games have to start so late; I'm ready to go to bed and we only just started the fourth quarter. If Alabama would grace me with a TD here I might sign off early and go to bed. Bama runs on the first play, and again on 2nd down for minimal gains. Musburger informs us that there has never been a shut out in a BCS bowl game, let alone a BCS championship game. Alabama has yet to allow LSU past mid field. LSU's defense finally gets the play they need for a big sack on 3rd down, forcing a punt from deep inside the Tide's own side of the field. For the first time today they have field position on their side on offense, as 'Bama punts from their own end zone. The punter gets a good punt off, and Mathieu doesn't do anything other than make a risky pick up and give Musburger a chance to say "honey badger" four more times.
11:07pm - LSU takes over with less than ten minutes to go, and picks up five on the ground. Jefferson picks up a few more on a scramble. Third and two is a good quick toss for the first down. The ball is finally at mid field for LSU, and Jefferson avoids the rush and gets the ball down to the 31, moving the ball into Tide territory for the first time today. If LSU scores a TD quickly here we have a game still. Yet again Jefferson runs a terrible option, waiting way too long before pitching.
11:12pm - 2nd and 13 after the busted option, and another false start. Alabama has no penalties thus far, yet another reason why they have simply out executed LSU in every aspect of the game. 2nd and 18 now, Jefferson throws it into the ground. 3rd and 18 now ... Jefferson is hit as he throws, leading to an incomplete. 6:21 left ... LSU has to go for this you'd think. 4th and 18 ... Jefferson is strip sacked and Alabama recovers.
11:17pm - As Alabama moves into "run as much time off the clock as we can" mode, I am just totally impressed with how complete this team played this game. I felt, after the last game, that the better team had not one, and this game makes it seem like I was correct in that assessment. Alabama did not get near the publicity this year, but they have perhaps the best defense I've ever seen in college football. They tackle, they contain, they pressure ... they can do it all. I understand that LSU beat a myriad of good teams throughout the year, starting with a good Oregon team, including this Alabama team, and the rest of their SEC schedule. That does count for something, but Alabama is the better team and the better team will win this. Richardson goes to the endzone to break LSU's back, and the Tide will now be up 22-0. This game was trench warfare for most of the game, but Alabama wore the Tigers down, and now have put them away. Shelley misses the extra point, so the game is 21-0. Uncanny.
11:21pm - My final thoughts for the night are this: it is completely bogus that Michigan, Clemson, VA Tech, and West Virginia played in BCS Bowls, while Boise State, who was much higher in the BCS rankings played against a 6-6 team in a who cares bowl because they missed one field goal. The Broncos were one of the six best teams in college football, and they were robbed by a system that focuses on big conferences, and the money they crave, rather than the football matchups we want to see. I'm glad we got 'Bama - LSU, but we could have also seen Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford, Georgia, Wisconsin, Boise State and one more team (West VA?) play in the other games and I would have been much happier. Boise deserved a shot against a top tier program. Michigan, Clemson, VA Tech and West Virginia didn't earn that same chance. I'm tired of a system which rewards where you play over how you play. It's stupid, it's greedy, and it doesn't accurately determine the best team in the nation. I have no idea if LSU or Alabama could really beat Boise; I think so, but I have no way of knowing. And so, with four minutes left, and the Tide up by three touch downs, I sign off. I know it's not the Super Bowl, but this just may have to do sports fans. Enjoy the new year, and I'll be back by week's ends with my official NFL Playoff picks.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Iowa: What It Told Us
The Iowa Caucus crowd is always elated to tell you that they, first among all other Americans, get to begin the process of determining a presidential nominee. Heading into yesterday all signs indicated that Ron Paul had a chance, Romney was sitting virtually identical to where he was in 2008, and that Rick Santorum had somehow become the candidate du jour for hardline conservatives everywhere.
Flash forward to the end of a long night, and you'll see that this assessment was pretty accurate:
- Ron Paul took 21.4% of the vote, a marked improvement over the 9.93% he took in Iowa in 2008
- Mitt Romney was a narrow winner of the caucus, even after not really trying here at all this year. The kicker is that Romney took 25.19% of the vote in 2008 ... and 24.6% of the vote in 2012. For all intents and purposes Mitt Romney just so happened to lose percentage votes, but his holding steady was good enough to win (albeit by eight votes apparently)
- Santorum ... I'm still not sure how this happened, but in the past six months the Republican field has anointed the following people (in order) their savior from the evil Mitt: Bachmann, Perry, Christie (never even in the race), Herman freaking Cain, Newt, and now Santorum. I actually might be missing some people in there, but the point remains the same: Santorum had the great advantage of being the last of all the gloves tried on before the game. Inevitably the voters would have to settle on one to play the game with, and Santorum happened to be the one they picked up when the umpire yelled "play ball."
The final take away for me is the incredible division in the Iowa field. Now, this is hardly unprecedented. The caucus process lends itself to this division of candidates. Look at the 2008 Republican field and you see a similar division:
- Huckabee 34.36%
- Romney 25.19%
- Thompson 13.39%
- McCain 13.03%
- Paul 9.93%
Five candidates essentially getting 1/10th of the vote or more. If you compare that with the 2008 Democratic field you'll see the following:
- Obama 37.6%
- Edwards 29.7%
- Clinton 29.4%
A three person race, but another indicator of the way that Iowa likes to split their delegates. A final look, at the 2000 Republican field, shows this:
- George W. Bush - 40.99%
- Steve Forbes - 30.5%
- Alan Keyes - 14.24%
What do you take away from that? Money matters in Iowa, as does organization. McCain, who finished somewhere around 4% that year, had neither.
So for this year's Republican field, the division shouldn't have been unexpected, but the variance between 1st and 5th wasn't much more than the variance between Bush and Forbes:
- Romney - 24.6%
- Santorum - 24.5%
- Paul - 21.4%
- Gingrich - 13.3% (isn't it nice that Newt now owns the distinction of killing his own campaign twice before Iowa?)
- Perry - 10.3%
Only 14 points separate first from fifth. Needless to say, this has the potential to be a divisive year in the Republican field, but the odd thing is that it might not be. Even with this division, the nomination is now, more firmly than ever, Romney's to lose. If he takes care of business in New Hampshire (which, barring a stunning piece of organization from Jon Huntsman, he will), he can claim victory in the first two contests, something which almost never happens in a truly contested nomination process. He then moves to South Carolina, and hopes that Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich (with some help from Ron Paul) split the vote as well as they did in Iowa (Perry may, in fact, drop out after Iowa, which would be the culmination of a precipitous, and entertaining, decline). If that happens, there is a very real chance that Mitt finishes strongly enough in South Carolina that he can be the defacto candidate already (at which point the far right's head explodes). If Huntsman somehow spoils New Hampshire, and if Newt and Perry directly or indirectly throw support to Santorum in South Carolina, however, we could be in for a long, drawn out nomination process. Either way, it appears that the Republican base is going to be awarded a nominee they don't really believe in. Yet another break for Obama.
Flash forward to the end of a long night, and you'll see that this assessment was pretty accurate:
- Ron Paul took 21.4% of the vote, a marked improvement over the 9.93% he took in Iowa in 2008
- Mitt Romney was a narrow winner of the caucus, even after not really trying here at all this year. The kicker is that Romney took 25.19% of the vote in 2008 ... and 24.6% of the vote in 2012. For all intents and purposes Mitt Romney just so happened to lose percentage votes, but his holding steady was good enough to win (albeit by eight votes apparently)
- Santorum ... I'm still not sure how this happened, but in the past six months the Republican field has anointed the following people (in order) their savior from the evil Mitt: Bachmann, Perry, Christie (never even in the race), Herman freaking Cain, Newt, and now Santorum. I actually might be missing some people in there, but the point remains the same: Santorum had the great advantage of being the last of all the gloves tried on before the game. Inevitably the voters would have to settle on one to play the game with, and Santorum happened to be the one they picked up when the umpire yelled "play ball."
The final take away for me is the incredible division in the Iowa field. Now, this is hardly unprecedented. The caucus process lends itself to this division of candidates. Look at the 2008 Republican field and you see a similar division:
- Huckabee 34.36%
- Romney 25.19%
- Thompson 13.39%
- McCain 13.03%
- Paul 9.93%
Five candidates essentially getting 1/10th of the vote or more. If you compare that with the 2008 Democratic field you'll see the following:
- Obama 37.6%
- Edwards 29.7%
- Clinton 29.4%
A three person race, but another indicator of the way that Iowa likes to split their delegates. A final look, at the 2000 Republican field, shows this:
- George W. Bush - 40.99%
- Steve Forbes - 30.5%
- Alan Keyes - 14.24%
What do you take away from that? Money matters in Iowa, as does organization. McCain, who finished somewhere around 4% that year, had neither.
So for this year's Republican field, the division shouldn't have been unexpected, but the variance between 1st and 5th wasn't much more than the variance between Bush and Forbes:
- Romney - 24.6%
- Santorum - 24.5%
- Paul - 21.4%
- Gingrich - 13.3% (isn't it nice that Newt now owns the distinction of killing his own campaign twice before Iowa?)
- Perry - 10.3%
Only 14 points separate first from fifth. Needless to say, this has the potential to be a divisive year in the Republican field, but the odd thing is that it might not be. Even with this division, the nomination is now, more firmly than ever, Romney's to lose. If he takes care of business in New Hampshire (which, barring a stunning piece of organization from Jon Huntsman, he will), he can claim victory in the first two contests, something which almost never happens in a truly contested nomination process. He then moves to South Carolina, and hopes that Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich (with some help from Ron Paul) split the vote as well as they did in Iowa (Perry may, in fact, drop out after Iowa, which would be the culmination of a precipitous, and entertaining, decline). If that happens, there is a very real chance that Mitt finishes strongly enough in South Carolina that he can be the defacto candidate already (at which point the far right's head explodes). If Huntsman somehow spoils New Hampshire, and if Newt and Perry directly or indirectly throw support to Santorum in South Carolina, however, we could be in for a long, drawn out nomination process. Either way, it appears that the Republican base is going to be awarded a nominee they don't really believe in. Yet another break for Obama.
Monday, January 2, 2012
The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2012, Part 1
Now, with the recap behind us, we move on to the real meat of the NFL season. All the fantasy football, all the regular season picks, all the games lead to this moment: playoff football. There is nothing like the NFL playoffs when it comes to picks, nor gambling. Last year I picked each game straight up and with the spread, and I'll do the same this year. The search for the perfect year is on, and right at the start we are given a difficult game in Cincinnati and Houston. Also, ESPN doesn't have lines, so we are moving to footballlocks.com. Without any more delay, here are the picks:
Saturday 4;30pm
Houston (-3) vs Cincinnati
Background: Houston comes into the playoffs stumbling, and one has to wonder if they have had too many major injuries to withstand at this point. Andre Johnson is banged up and a shadow of his former self, but him playing is essential to the Texans having a chance. The luster has also worn off of the T.J. Yates show, and the Texans have lost three in a row. The Bengals, on the other hand, made it into the playoffs after going 3-5 in their final eight. They also lost to the Texans four weeks ago, 20-19. Looking deeper into that game you'll see that Cincinnati led most of the game and that Houston needed a last second TD to win. Looking further, however, will show you that Houston outgained the Bengals 412 to 285, and that it was the four Texans turnovers that kept the game really close.
The Numbers: Houston was 13th in total offensive yards; Cincinnati was 20th. Houston scored 23.8 points per game, good for 10th in the league, while Cincinnati scored 21.5, good for 18th. Houston was 2nd in rushing yards per game, where Cincinnati was 19th. On defense Houston was 2nd in total yards, and Cincinnati was 7th. Against the run Houston was 4th, and Cincinnati was tenth. Houston was fourth in points per game, Cincinnati was ninth (17.4 v 20.2).
The Logic: As banged up as Houston is, limping into the playoffs, they have the real advantage of playing an equally inexperienced playoff team. The Bengals are that team that isn't good, and somehow wins on grit. They seem to do this every few years now a days. Benson isn't a good running back, but he finds a way to grind out yards. Dalton isn't a great QB, but he can manage a game. The defense is solid, but unspectacular. This game could go either way, and Vegas thinks these teams are even. In a coin toss I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the superior running game and defense of Houston.
The Pick: Houston (-3) over Cincinnati / Houston 20 - Cincinnati 13
Saturday 8:00PM
New Orleans (-10.5) vs Detroit
Background: last year the Saints were an 11 point road favorite and lost outright. This year they are a ten and a half point home favorite. They have been hot down the stretch, winning eight in a row. The Lions, meanwhile, are 5-6 in their last 11 after a 5-0 start, and have looked downright human at times. Oh, and they gave up 480 passing yards and 6 TDs to the Packers yesterday, which is expected because Aaron Rodgers has been great all year. What's that? Rodgers didn't really play? Matt Flynn put up those numbers? Oh ... and five weeks ago New Orleans won by two TDs. Hmm...
The Numbers: The Saints were first by a wide margin in total yards; the Lions were fifth. In passing yards the Saints were first, the Lions fourth. The Saints can run a bit (sixth at 132.9 ypg) ... the Lions can't (29th at 95.2 ypg). Both teams have potent offenses that thrive in their home dome environments (Saints 2nd at 34.2 ppg, the Lions 4th at 29.6 ppg). On the other side of the ball, Detroit is 23rd and New Orleans 24th in yards per game. Detroit was 22nd in passing defense, while New Orleans was 30th. New Orleans was 12th against the run, while Detroit was 23rd. Finally, New Orleans held their opponents to 21.2 points per game (good for 13th in the league) while Detroit allowed 24.2 points per game, which placed them 23rd.
The Logic: The Saints are clearly the better team, and I'm hopeful that last year's playoff choke will inspire them to greater things this year. Both teams have potent offenses and porous defenses. It should be mentioned that Detroit is superior in the turnover battle, sitting at +13 (third overall in the NFC) while New Orleans is at -4. I don't expect either team to really stop the other offense much, but I do feel that New Orleans has the better chance of doing that, as the Lions can be painfully one dimensional. I sense a late cover for the Lions, so I'm going to split this pick.
The Pick: Detroit (+10.5) over New Orleans / New Orleans 38 - Detroit 31
Sunday 1:00PM
NY Giants (-3) VS Atlanta
Background: a third straight home favorite, and a second one where Vegas is essentially saying the teams are even. I'm going to go in brief here, by telling you what I think we know about each of these teams. For New York, I think we know that they are more potent passing than running, they have some backbone (as seen in the last two weeks), and their defense can make plays, even if it is a shadow of what it once was. For Atlanta, their running game isn't as good as it used to be, Matt Ryan is good but not yet great, and the defense is solid if unspectacular. Both teams were on the right side of the turnover battle at +5 and +6 respectively. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside; the Giants are an outdoor team built to play inside.
The Numbers: Starting with the defense, the Giants were 25th and the Falcons 18th in points per game. The Giants, however, gave up the 27th most yards per game, while the Falcons were a much more respectable 12th. On offense, the Giants were 8th and the Falcons 10th in yards per game, while in points per game Atlanta was 7th and the Giants were 9th. The most shocking aspect of the numbers game is that Atlanta is middle of the pack in rushing offense (where you'd expect them) but the Giants are dead last. In other words, the weather in New York has the potential to hurt the Giants more than help them.
The Logic: The Giants righted the ship in the last two weeks, but prior to that they were 1-5 in their last six. Atlanta, meanwhile, took care of business down the stretch, losing twice to New Orleans and once to Houston while going 8-3 in their last eleven.
The Pick: Atlanta (+3) over NY Giants / Atlanta 27 - NY Giants 24
Sunday 4:30PM
Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver
Background: Last year the Saints were 11 point favorites on the road, so I'm a bit surprised this line is this low. The shine seems to have come off the T.C. era in Denver already, as Timmy has played very poorly in the last three games. Pittsburgh's defense should be able to dominate the one dimensional Broncos' offensive attack.
The Numbers: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the league both in YPG and PPG. Denver was 24th in PPG and 20th in YPG. On offense, Pittsburgh was 12th and Denver 23rd in YPG, and Pittsburgh was 21st in PPG while Denver was 25th.
The Logic: I have Pittsburgh as one of my conference finalists, and no matter how rough the offense looks, the defense should have a heyday here.
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver / Pittsburgh 24 - Denver 9
So, to recap, baring any injuries this week in practice or other unforeseen calamities, I'll take two favorites (Pittsburgh and Houston) and two dogs (Detroit and Atlanta) against the spread, and the straight up picks are Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Unless something else comes up, enjoy the NFL playoffs next weekend!
Saturday 4;30pm
Houston (-3) vs Cincinnati
Background: Houston comes into the playoffs stumbling, and one has to wonder if they have had too many major injuries to withstand at this point. Andre Johnson is banged up and a shadow of his former self, but him playing is essential to the Texans having a chance. The luster has also worn off of the T.J. Yates show, and the Texans have lost three in a row. The Bengals, on the other hand, made it into the playoffs after going 3-5 in their final eight. They also lost to the Texans four weeks ago, 20-19. Looking deeper into that game you'll see that Cincinnati led most of the game and that Houston needed a last second TD to win. Looking further, however, will show you that Houston outgained the Bengals 412 to 285, and that it was the four Texans turnovers that kept the game really close.
The Numbers: Houston was 13th in total offensive yards; Cincinnati was 20th. Houston scored 23.8 points per game, good for 10th in the league, while Cincinnati scored 21.5, good for 18th. Houston was 2nd in rushing yards per game, where Cincinnati was 19th. On defense Houston was 2nd in total yards, and Cincinnati was 7th. Against the run Houston was 4th, and Cincinnati was tenth. Houston was fourth in points per game, Cincinnati was ninth (17.4 v 20.2).
The Logic: As banged up as Houston is, limping into the playoffs, they have the real advantage of playing an equally inexperienced playoff team. The Bengals are that team that isn't good, and somehow wins on grit. They seem to do this every few years now a days. Benson isn't a good running back, but he finds a way to grind out yards. Dalton isn't a great QB, but he can manage a game. The defense is solid, but unspectacular. This game could go either way, and Vegas thinks these teams are even. In a coin toss I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the superior running game and defense of Houston.
The Pick: Houston (-3) over Cincinnati / Houston 20 - Cincinnati 13
Saturday 8:00PM
New Orleans (-10.5) vs Detroit
Background: last year the Saints were an 11 point road favorite and lost outright. This year they are a ten and a half point home favorite. They have been hot down the stretch, winning eight in a row. The Lions, meanwhile, are 5-6 in their last 11 after a 5-0 start, and have looked downright human at times. Oh, and they gave up 480 passing yards and 6 TDs to the Packers yesterday, which is expected because Aaron Rodgers has been great all year. What's that? Rodgers didn't really play? Matt Flynn put up those numbers? Oh ... and five weeks ago New Orleans won by two TDs. Hmm...
The Numbers: The Saints were first by a wide margin in total yards; the Lions were fifth. In passing yards the Saints were first, the Lions fourth. The Saints can run a bit (sixth at 132.9 ypg) ... the Lions can't (29th at 95.2 ypg). Both teams have potent offenses that thrive in their home dome environments (Saints 2nd at 34.2 ppg, the Lions 4th at 29.6 ppg). On the other side of the ball, Detroit is 23rd and New Orleans 24th in yards per game. Detroit was 22nd in passing defense, while New Orleans was 30th. New Orleans was 12th against the run, while Detroit was 23rd. Finally, New Orleans held their opponents to 21.2 points per game (good for 13th in the league) while Detroit allowed 24.2 points per game, which placed them 23rd.
The Logic: The Saints are clearly the better team, and I'm hopeful that last year's playoff choke will inspire them to greater things this year. Both teams have potent offenses and porous defenses. It should be mentioned that Detroit is superior in the turnover battle, sitting at +13 (third overall in the NFC) while New Orleans is at -4. I don't expect either team to really stop the other offense much, but I do feel that New Orleans has the better chance of doing that, as the Lions can be painfully one dimensional. I sense a late cover for the Lions, so I'm going to split this pick.
The Pick: Detroit (+10.5) over New Orleans / New Orleans 38 - Detroit 31
Sunday 1:00PM
NY Giants (-3) VS Atlanta
Background: a third straight home favorite, and a second one where Vegas is essentially saying the teams are even. I'm going to go in brief here, by telling you what I think we know about each of these teams. For New York, I think we know that they are more potent passing than running, they have some backbone (as seen in the last two weeks), and their defense can make plays, even if it is a shadow of what it once was. For Atlanta, their running game isn't as good as it used to be, Matt Ryan is good but not yet great, and the defense is solid if unspectacular. Both teams were on the right side of the turnover battle at +5 and +6 respectively. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside; the Giants are an outdoor team built to play inside.
The Numbers: Starting with the defense, the Giants were 25th and the Falcons 18th in points per game. The Giants, however, gave up the 27th most yards per game, while the Falcons were a much more respectable 12th. On offense, the Giants were 8th and the Falcons 10th in yards per game, while in points per game Atlanta was 7th and the Giants were 9th. The most shocking aspect of the numbers game is that Atlanta is middle of the pack in rushing offense (where you'd expect them) but the Giants are dead last. In other words, the weather in New York has the potential to hurt the Giants more than help them.
The Logic: The Giants righted the ship in the last two weeks, but prior to that they were 1-5 in their last six. Atlanta, meanwhile, took care of business down the stretch, losing twice to New Orleans and once to Houston while going 8-3 in their last eleven.
The Pick: Atlanta (+3) over NY Giants / Atlanta 27 - NY Giants 24
Sunday 4:30PM
Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver
Background: Last year the Saints were 11 point favorites on the road, so I'm a bit surprised this line is this low. The shine seems to have come off the T.C. era in Denver already, as Timmy has played very poorly in the last three games. Pittsburgh's defense should be able to dominate the one dimensional Broncos' offensive attack.
The Numbers: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the league both in YPG and PPG. Denver was 24th in PPG and 20th in YPG. On offense, Pittsburgh was 12th and Denver 23rd in YPG, and Pittsburgh was 21st in PPG while Denver was 25th.
The Logic: I have Pittsburgh as one of my conference finalists, and no matter how rough the offense looks, the defense should have a heyday here.
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver / Pittsburgh 24 - Denver 9
So, to recap, baring any injuries this week in practice or other unforeseen calamities, I'll take two favorites (Pittsburgh and Houston) and two dogs (Detroit and Atlanta) against the spread, and the straight up picks are Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Unless something else comes up, enjoy the NFL playoffs next weekend!
NFL Recap - How did the POV do?
After starting off strong this NFL season, posting picks weekly (and not doing too shabby at that) I fell off the deep end. A strong combination of life circumstances, work, and school will do that to you. I didn't even do my halfway point recap of the NFL this year. Rough times, indeed. But I will stop by now to recap the NFL season, and to take the opportunity to look forward to my playoff picks. Year after year I search for the perfect playoff picks: 11-0. I've been picking the games since that fated 1998 season (8-0 heading into the conference championship games, only to watch Gary Anderson kill my playoffs), and I've never come as close as I did that year. So hopefully a review of the year that was can help me to examine what is coming up in the next month plus.
AFC East
Preseason prediction:
1. New England - 13-3
2. New York - 10-6
3. Miami - 7-9
4. Buffalo - 5-11
Final Record:
1. New England - 13-3
2. NY Jets - 8-8
3. Miami 6-10
4. Buffalo - 6-10
What I got right: I hit the Pats right on the head, at 13-3. I also got the order the teams finished exactly right, although it took a monumental collapse in Buffalo, coupled with a surge from the Dolphins to accomplish that one.
What I missed: I didn't think that this would be the year that the bottom gave out in New York. I gave them enough of a benefit of the doubt to project ten wins, but I also said things like "I do not believe in Mark Sanchez" and I called this team "a house of cards." If only I'd followed my convictions a bit more I would have predicted this exactly.
AFC North
Preseason Prediction:
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers - 11-5
2. Cleveland Browns - 9-7
3. Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
4. Cincinnati Bengals - 1-15
Final Record:
1. Baltimore - 12-4
2. Pittsburgh - 12-4
3. Cincinnati - 9-7
4. Cleveland - 4-12
What I got right: Pittsburgh made the playoffs. Other than that, not a whole lot.
What I missed: I overvalued Cleveland badly. Their offense fell on harder times rather than improving, their defense was nothing special ... what did I see in this team again? I'm guessing it was their easy schedule. I also discounted Baltimore's ability to integrate veterans, which they did fine, and I completely whiffed on Cincinnati, saying "Cincinnati has a chance to be historically bad." In the extended edition of the blog I would have also mentioned "but I believe that Andy Dalton, combined with A.J. Green, will rejuvenate the Bengals."
AFC South
Preseason Predictions:
1. Houston Texans - 9-7
2. Tennessee Titans - 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts - 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11
Final Records:
1. Houston Texans - 10-6
2. Tennessee Titans - 9-7
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11
4. Indianapolis Colts - 2-14
What I got right: Pretty much everything. I hit the Jags on the head, was close with the Texans and Titans. I hedged my Colts bet, picking 7-9 assuming a Manning return around week 5, but I also noted "if he misses the whole year they may be 3-13." So I'm willing to say that I hit this division pretty much head on.
What I missed: I'll just take this moment to apologize to my father for pining his fantasy season on Peyton's neck. Manning keeps sticking it to me even when he isn't playing.
AFC West:
Preseason Prediction:
1. San Diego - 12-4
2. Oakland - 8-8
3. Denver - 6-10
4. Kansas City - 5-11
Final Record:
1. Denver 8-8
2. San Diego 8-8
3. Oakland 8-8
4. Kansas City 7-9
What I got right: Kansas City did regress to the mean, Oakland did jump to 8-8, and Denver did improve.
What I missed: Norv Turner successfully ruined the most talented team in the division, and somehow isn't fired as of this moment. I also failed to foresee the Broncos turning to Tebow Christ, who, through a vigorous prayer schedule, managed to lead Denver to an improbable comeback and division crown. I can't decide if I'm giddy to be against them in the playoffs or terrified of betting against T.C. I think terrified.
NFC East
Preseason Predictions:
1. Dallas Cowboys - 11-5
2. New York Giants - 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles - 8-8
4. Washington Redskins - 6-10
Final Record:
1. NY Giants - 9-7
2. Philadelphia - 8-8
3. Dallas Cowboys - 8-8
4. Washington - 5-11
What I got right: well, this pretty much says it all. And I quote "Stay with me here: I think Philly is due for a major crash. I don't buy Vick staying healthy or getting as lucky as he did with interceptions last year. Their offensive line makes the Bears' line look good. They have a ton of egos, and a moron backup QB who already labeled them the team of destiny. I see them struggling big time out of the gate and not righting the ship quick enough." I couldn't have hit that one better if I had asked T.C. for the outcome. I also hit the Giants record head on, and narrowly missed on the Redskins.
What I missed: Dallas is star crossed, and I'm starting to think that Jerry Jones must have sold his soul for the early 1990s teams ... or that Jimmy Johnson put a curse on the Cowboys when Jerry forced him out ... or that karma is just piling it on for Emmit Smith holding on just to break Walter's record. Either way, there is only one way left for Jerry to right this ship: trade Romo for T.C. and let the prayer circles begin.
NFC North
Preseason Predictions:
1. Green Bay - 12-4
2. Detroit Lions - 10-6
3. Chicago Bears - 7-9
4. Minnesota Vikings - 6-10
Final Records:
1. Green Bay - 15-1
2. Detroit - 10-6
3. Chicago - 8-8
4. Minnesota - 3-13
What I got right: again, pretty much everything. I hit the Lions on the head and narrowly missed on the Bears. The Vikes were even worse than I predicted, and the Packers were slightly better. Six divisions in and I'm doing pretty well.
What I missed: The Bears would have made the playoffs and probably finished with 11 wins if not for the injuries taking hold. That said, a large part of the reason I picked them to go 7-9 was because they had been so lucky with injuries the year before. I wrote at the time that Lovie didn't feel any pressure because he got a contract extension. I'm so glad we can look forward to another year or two of horrible personnel decisions and inept clock management. Lovie is the friggin gift that keeps on giving.
NFC South
Preseason Predictions:
1. New Orleans - 12-4
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Tampa Bay - 8-8
4. Carolina - 2-14
Final Records:
1. New Orleans 13-3
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Carolina - 6-10
4. Tampa Bay - 4-12
What I got right: the top half of this division, led by a dominate Saints team (I wrote "New Orleans has the experience and the stability I'm looking for") and a solid Falcons team. I also said "Tampa will regress to the mean." Which was correct. I just didn't realize how hard of a fall it would be.
What I missed: The bottom half of the division. "Carolina is going to be a train wreck." (Gulp). "Cam Newton is Vince Young redux." (GULP). I'll probably regret having written that.
NFC West
Preseason Predictions:
1. St. Louis - 8-8
2. Arizona - 7-9
3. Seattle - 4-12
4. San Francisco - 3-13
Final Records:
1. San Francisco - 13-3
2. Arizona 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. St Louis - 2-14
What I got right: I'll take credit for nearly hitting on Arizona. I'll also try to convince you that I had a typo, and meant that San Fran would go 13-3, not 3-13.
What I missed: Mike Singletary really is that bad of a coach. And Jim Harbaugh really is that good. Also, St. Louis sucks. I forgot that "Cardinal" rule.
AFC Playoff picture (listed in order of seed):
Preseason Predictions:
AFC Playoff Teams: New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston, NY Jets, Cleveland (gulp!)
Final Standings: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
What I got right: I hit on New England and Houston, and had Pittsburgh in. So, 3-3, with two head on.
NFC Playoff Picture (listed in order of seed):
Preseason Predictions:
NFC Playoff Teams: New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, Atlanta, Detroit
Final Standings: Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, NY Giants, Atlanta, Detroit
What I got right: I hit on the Packers, Saints, and both the Falcons and Lions as Wild Card teams. If the Cowboys hadn't choked this would have looked real good. 4-2, with four direct hits.
Preseason Super Bowl Pick: Pats over Saints (I strangely feel pretty decent about this right now)
AFC East
Preseason prediction:
1. New England - 13-3
2. New York - 10-6
3. Miami - 7-9
4. Buffalo - 5-11
Final Record:
1. New England - 13-3
2. NY Jets - 8-8
3. Miami 6-10
4. Buffalo - 6-10
What I got right: I hit the Pats right on the head, at 13-3. I also got the order the teams finished exactly right, although it took a monumental collapse in Buffalo, coupled with a surge from the Dolphins to accomplish that one.
What I missed: I didn't think that this would be the year that the bottom gave out in New York. I gave them enough of a benefit of the doubt to project ten wins, but I also said things like "I do not believe in Mark Sanchez" and I called this team "a house of cards." If only I'd followed my convictions a bit more I would have predicted this exactly.
AFC North
Preseason Prediction:
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers - 11-5
2. Cleveland Browns - 9-7
3. Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
4. Cincinnati Bengals - 1-15
Final Record:
1. Baltimore - 12-4
2. Pittsburgh - 12-4
3. Cincinnati - 9-7
4. Cleveland - 4-12
What I got right: Pittsburgh made the playoffs. Other than that, not a whole lot.
What I missed: I overvalued Cleveland badly. Their offense fell on harder times rather than improving, their defense was nothing special ... what did I see in this team again? I'm guessing it was their easy schedule. I also discounted Baltimore's ability to integrate veterans, which they did fine, and I completely whiffed on Cincinnati, saying "Cincinnati has a chance to be historically bad." In the extended edition of the blog I would have also mentioned "but I believe that Andy Dalton, combined with A.J. Green, will rejuvenate the Bengals."
AFC South
Preseason Predictions:
1. Houston Texans - 9-7
2. Tennessee Titans - 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts - 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11
Final Records:
1. Houston Texans - 10-6
2. Tennessee Titans - 9-7
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11
4. Indianapolis Colts - 2-14
What I got right: Pretty much everything. I hit the Jags on the head, was close with the Texans and Titans. I hedged my Colts bet, picking 7-9 assuming a Manning return around week 5, but I also noted "if he misses the whole year they may be 3-13." So I'm willing to say that I hit this division pretty much head on.
What I missed: I'll just take this moment to apologize to my father for pining his fantasy season on Peyton's neck. Manning keeps sticking it to me even when he isn't playing.
AFC West:
Preseason Prediction:
1. San Diego - 12-4
2. Oakland - 8-8
3. Denver - 6-10
4. Kansas City - 5-11
Final Record:
1. Denver 8-8
2. San Diego 8-8
3. Oakland 8-8
4. Kansas City 7-9
What I got right: Kansas City did regress to the mean, Oakland did jump to 8-8, and Denver did improve.
What I missed: Norv Turner successfully ruined the most talented team in the division, and somehow isn't fired as of this moment. I also failed to foresee the Broncos turning to Tebow Christ, who, through a vigorous prayer schedule, managed to lead Denver to an improbable comeback and division crown. I can't decide if I'm giddy to be against them in the playoffs or terrified of betting against T.C. I think terrified.
NFC East
Preseason Predictions:
1. Dallas Cowboys - 11-5
2. New York Giants - 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles - 8-8
4. Washington Redskins - 6-10
Final Record:
1. NY Giants - 9-7
2. Philadelphia - 8-8
3. Dallas Cowboys - 8-8
4. Washington - 5-11
What I got right: well, this pretty much says it all. And I quote "Stay with me here: I think Philly is due for a major crash. I don't buy Vick staying healthy or getting as lucky as he did with interceptions last year. Their offensive line makes the Bears' line look good. They have a ton of egos, and a moron backup QB who already labeled them the team of destiny. I see them struggling big time out of the gate and not righting the ship quick enough." I couldn't have hit that one better if I had asked T.C. for the outcome. I also hit the Giants record head on, and narrowly missed on the Redskins.
What I missed: Dallas is star crossed, and I'm starting to think that Jerry Jones must have sold his soul for the early 1990s teams ... or that Jimmy Johnson put a curse on the Cowboys when Jerry forced him out ... or that karma is just piling it on for Emmit Smith holding on just to break Walter's record. Either way, there is only one way left for Jerry to right this ship: trade Romo for T.C. and let the prayer circles begin.
NFC North
Preseason Predictions:
1. Green Bay - 12-4
2. Detroit Lions - 10-6
3. Chicago Bears - 7-9
4. Minnesota Vikings - 6-10
Final Records:
1. Green Bay - 15-1
2. Detroit - 10-6
3. Chicago - 8-8
4. Minnesota - 3-13
What I got right: again, pretty much everything. I hit the Lions on the head and narrowly missed on the Bears. The Vikes were even worse than I predicted, and the Packers were slightly better. Six divisions in and I'm doing pretty well.
What I missed: The Bears would have made the playoffs and probably finished with 11 wins if not for the injuries taking hold. That said, a large part of the reason I picked them to go 7-9 was because they had been so lucky with injuries the year before. I wrote at the time that Lovie didn't feel any pressure because he got a contract extension. I'm so glad we can look forward to another year or two of horrible personnel decisions and inept clock management. Lovie is the friggin gift that keeps on giving.
NFC South
Preseason Predictions:
1. New Orleans - 12-4
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Tampa Bay - 8-8
4. Carolina - 2-14
Final Records:
1. New Orleans 13-3
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Carolina - 6-10
4. Tampa Bay - 4-12
What I got right: the top half of this division, led by a dominate Saints team (I wrote "New Orleans has the experience and the stability I'm looking for") and a solid Falcons team. I also said "Tampa will regress to the mean." Which was correct. I just didn't realize how hard of a fall it would be.
What I missed: The bottom half of the division. "Carolina is going to be a train wreck." (Gulp). "Cam Newton is Vince Young redux." (GULP). I'll probably regret having written that.
NFC West
Preseason Predictions:
1. St. Louis - 8-8
2. Arizona - 7-9
3. Seattle - 4-12
4. San Francisco - 3-13
Final Records:
1. San Francisco - 13-3
2. Arizona 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. St Louis - 2-14
What I got right: I'll take credit for nearly hitting on Arizona. I'll also try to convince you that I had a typo, and meant that San Fran would go 13-3, not 3-13.
What I missed: Mike Singletary really is that bad of a coach. And Jim Harbaugh really is that good. Also, St. Louis sucks. I forgot that "Cardinal" rule.
AFC Playoff picture (listed in order of seed):
Preseason Predictions:
AFC Playoff Teams: New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston, NY Jets, Cleveland (gulp!)
Final Standings: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
What I got right: I hit on New England and Houston, and had Pittsburgh in. So, 3-3, with two head on.
NFC Playoff Picture (listed in order of seed):
Preseason Predictions:
NFC Playoff Teams: New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, Atlanta, Detroit
Final Standings: Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, NY Giants, Atlanta, Detroit
What I got right: I hit on the Packers, Saints, and both the Falcons and Lions as Wild Card teams. If the Cowboys hadn't choked this would have looked real good. 4-2, with four direct hits.
Preseason Super Bowl Pick: Pats over Saints (I strangely feel pretty decent about this right now)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)