0-4 against the spread ... 2-2 straight up ... last week was the most brutal week of picking playoff games I can ever remember. Every angle I decided on was wrong. It was brutal.
So this week I'm taking a different angle: what do I think will bring the best ratings on Super Bowl Sunday? Does that match up with what can happen? At this point any outcome of these games have to be possible. We've got three teams that talk up their defense left (49ers, Giants, Ravens) and one team that hasn't had a defense all year, but has a potent (the most potent?) offense in the Pats. So, after guaranteeing myself a losing playoff record against the spread with my crap-tastic picks, here's what I'm thinking:
Sunday (3pm) - Baltimore at New England (-9)
My Logic: Tom Brady has yet another chance to cement his legacy as one of the two greatest quarter backs of all time. With three Super Bowl wins he is on the edge of that discussion. With a fourth? It's him and Montana, and nobody else comes close. Today there is a chance (albeit a poor chance) that Manning wins another one and people put his legacy against Brady's again. If it wasn't for my man Tracy Porter two years ago that probably would be where we are at today. But if he wins a fourth? Game, set, match. The Patriots have blown their last two chances to win number four in Tom's career (against the Colts in 2006, when they surely would have beat my Bears) and against the Giants the following year in the Super Bowl. I'm sure you see where I'm going with this but would their be a more iconic way for him to win number four than in Indy, playing...
Sunday (6:30pm) - NY Giants at San Francisco (-3)
My Logic: They New York Giants, and Eli Manning? You know that Brady carries that Super Bowl loss with him always. If they win that game, and complete the perfect season, then he leaps Montana into undisputed Greatest of All Time poll position. Instead, it's left open. Since then he has missed a year thanks to Pollard's hit, had a good come back year, then had arguably the greatest season ever for a QB last year. But doesn't it feel like the Giants have to be the obstacle for Brady to overcome? On the other hand ... beating Montana's team in the Super Bowl would have some appeal as well. In this game, it comes down to this: who do I believe in more? Alex Smith? Eli Manning? I've been telling people for awhile now: Eli has irrational confidence in his ability to win games, make throws, and generally be a elite QB. Funny thing is: he's become an elite QB because of that irrational confidence. Down three with one minute left Alex Smith might be able to win it for you, but even he's not sure. Eli knows he's going to win it for you. You wouldn't take him ahead of Rodgers, Brady, Manning the Older or Big Ben ... but he'd think you would. He'd tell you "you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall," and he'd do it with a straight face. He believes in his ability irrationally ... and that makes him dangerous, and the right pick. Eli wins this game. He goes into his brother's house to face off against his brother's nemesis in a rematch of the game where he kept his brother's chance of going down as the Greatest of All Time alive. And Peyton watches, in his hometown, knowing deep down inside ... he's never playing again. The day after the Super Bowl the Andrew Luck era will start in Indy, an all time great will walk into the sunset, and we will be left to marvel at Eli either having the same resume as his brother (two Super Bowl's, one win) or a superior resume (two Super Bowl wins). I just got goose bumps writing that sentence. That's what tells me it's right.
The Picks:
Patriots (-9) over Baltimore
Patriots 31 - Baltimore 20
Giants (+3) over San Francisco
Giants 27 - San Francisco 24
Now you can go bet on the other teams :-)
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