The Problem? It's Not Just This Year.

It's been two weeks since I've posted. Life's been getting rather hectic, between work and an impending move, but hopefully I'll be writing more again. I certainly have plenty of things to write about. The NFL season is coming up, my fantasy football draft is just around the corner (just ranked my top 200 last night), I've seen a couple of thought provoking movies, and it's time to look at the next ten players on my NBA's 50 Greatest list.

All that said, today I'm going to look at the Chicago Cubs. Following their post All-Star break surge, it was looking as if the team had found a pulse and was going to stay in contention. That surge, and that feeling, however, ended up being little more than a mirage. The other day I left my brother a voicemail simply stating "the Cubs are dead and gone. I attended their funeral today, and they are buried, in the ground, and I preformed the last rites. It's time for football now."

That sentiment has been looking even more correct as, in the past two days, the Cubs have continued to lose and the Cardinals, Rockies, Giants and other Wild Card "contenders" have continued to win. My boss told me two days ago that he couldn't believe that I, of all people, had given up hope. But it doesn't take much common sense to realize that this year is not the year. We would need a Rockies like streak of winning 24 of 25 (or something in that neighborhood) to pull this off, and this team just doesn't seem to have any consistency of that nature in it.

I'm ok with the fact we didn't put it together this year. In fact, it makes some sense. Last year we had a 97 win team, the best team in the NL during the regular season, but when we came to the post season we had an epic collapse. As you might have expected Jim Hendry's reaction was to panic, and he over compensated, shuffling our bullpen yet again, dealing DeRosa, and signing Milton Bradley. Those moves did not pay dividends this year, particularly the additions of Kevin Gregg as closer, Bradley as our right fielder, and the gaping hole at 2nd left in DeRosa's wake.

What I am not sure that Cubs fans realize is that this is not just contained to this year. Even yesterday's news that the Cubs have finally sold to the Ricketts family can't change the fact that this franchise is in serious trouble in the long term. This team was built to win, and win now, and its' window of opportunity is closing fast. Furthermore, there is very little flexibility in the near future for the roster to be improved. To fully understand the issues facing the Cubbies you have to look at the whole picture, position by position (all contract information comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts):

First Base: Derrick Lee is under contract for only one more year, 2010, at $13,000,000. After a very slow start to the year Lee picked it up and almost single handily kept the team in contention while seemingly everyone else was injured. The danger here is that Lee is getting older, and the temptation will be to sign him to an extension this off season because he had a decent year and in a clubhouse leader. The Cubs have to resist that temptation and allow Lee to play out his contract, unless he is willing to take a substantial paycut, which is unlikely. Lee is good, but he isn't a superstar and he is being paid like one due to his 2005 season which was an aberration.

Second Base: Who plays here? Jeff Baker has done alright since being acquired, but he is probably not a long term answer. Aaron Miles has been a complete and total bust, and is still under contract for another $2.7 million next year. The Cubs should just cut him and take their losses, unless some team is dumb enough to trade for him. Beyond those two the Cubs have both Mike Fontenot, who can't hit above .230 consistently, and Andres Blanco, who can't even hit that. Neither of these two will be eligible for arbitration during the off season which helps a bit from a salary standpoint. Baker might be eligible depending on how much time he ends up with in the big leagues this year. At any rate, none of these four seem to be the answer.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez is under contact through 2010 with a player option for 2011 and a team option for 2012. With the health issues he had this year it is hard to envision Ramirez declining the option for 2011, but if he has a good year next year, and if the economy is better, he very well might. Ramirez is an All-Star player, and probably the best expensive position player on the roster, but he seems to be injured pretty frequently, and the Cubs have no options behind him who can both hit and field. His salary is roughly $15 million a year, which is a fair price when he's healthy.

Shortstop: Ryan Theriot will be eligible for arbitration this year, which will almost assuredly take his salary from the half a million he made this year into the two to three million dollar range. At that price he's still a decent bargain. So the Cubs are set at shortstop as well as third, when healthy.

Catcher: Giovanni Soto has one more year without being up for arbitration, so his salary should be quite reasonable next year, depending on which Soto shows up for 2010: the All-Star slugger of 2008 or the injured catcher who struggled to hit his weight in 2009. Koyie Hill will be close to arbitration, but shouldn't make much even if he qualifies. He's not that good. If Soto does not return to his 2008 form next year the club could be looking for a new catcher by 2011.

Left Field: Alphonso Soriano, as I explored in this previous post, is almost assuredly on the down hill slide of his career. He heated up ever so briefly following the All Star break, but as our highest paid player he is a total bust. What makes that worse is that we are on the hook for him through 2014, and the contract is back loaded (as so many which were signed while the team was up for sale were). The long and the short of it is that we owe Soriano $18,000,000 a year from 2010 through 2014. Nobody will want to take his contract on, but even if they do he has a full no trade clause. He can't play defense, he can't hit much anymore, he can't run much anymore ... on the short list of worst contracts in the history of baseball, Soranio's is a contender for the top spot.

Center Field: Kosuke Fukudome has another of the back loaded contracts given during the "for sale" era. He made only $6 million in 2008, but then made $11.5 million this year, and will make $13 million in 2010 and $13.5 million in 2011. Fukudome seems to be a good guy, and he gives top effort, but when we are telling ourselves "at least he's been better this year" we can't forget that "better" still leaves us with a .270 hitter at best. He's not worth the money, plain and simple, and he also has a no-trade clause so we can't easily deal him (although, once again, it's not likely anyone would want him). Additionally, his best position is right field, which he can't play for the foreseeable future due to our next player on the list.

Right Field: I still stand by this signing to a point. We needed another big bat, and Bradley's did make the most sense for the team. I don't know anyone who could have, or did, project the massive fall off in his power and ability to hit left handed, but he has come around and will finish the year with decent numbers. His contract is another one that is massively back loaded; he made only $5 million this year, but will make $9 million in 2010 and then $10 million in 2011. If there are some fluky injury issues at the end of this year the 2011 year becomes a club option for $12 million with a $2 million buy out if they choose not to pick the option up, but unless Milton tears an ACL arguing with an umpire soon it's not likely that will happen. But, hey, at least he doesn't have a no-trade clause!

Pitchers: Carlos Zambrano leads the way with a contract that will pay him more than $17 million a year for every year through 2012. There is a vesting player option in 2013, which shifts around a bit depending on his finish in the Cy Young standings in 2011 and 2012. Of all the Cubs big contacts this one is probably the most fair according to market value. Beyond Zambrano you have Ryan Dempster, who's back loaded contract goes from $9 million this year to $12.5 million next, $13.5 million the year after, and $14 million in 2012 if he exercises his player option. Ted Lilly will be a free agent after next year, the final year of his four year $40 million dollar contract which was also massively back loaded ($5 million in 2007, $12 million in 2010). Lilly also has a no-trade clause, but much like Dempster and Zambrano, it is unlikely we'd trade him. Rich Harden will be a free agent after this year, and the market will determine if he is on the Cubs radar at all, although he has pitched very well as of late. Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall, and Tom Gorzelanny will all be back competing for a spot (or two, depending on Harden) in the rotation. Samardzija is under contract through 2011 with options for 2012 and 2013, while Marshall and Gorzelanny should be arbitration eligible. As for the bullpen, Gregg should be a free agent, and hopefully won't be back. Marmol will be eligible for arbitration and should see a pay raise (although not as much as he might have had he replicated the last two years this year). Angel Guzman also could be arbitration eligible and in line for a pay raise, and John Grabow will be a free agent, making the deal for he and Gorzelanny look even more questionable.

The point of all of this is to illustrate that this club is likely to get worse in the next few years, not better. This is especially likely next year. The back loaded contracts, which were a necessary evil as the Tribune Co., and then Sam Zell drug their feet to sell the team, are coming home to roost. We have a number of players on no trade clauses, and very few of our big salaries are movable even in the best of circumstances. Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley will be our starting outfield next year, with only Bradley having much hope of being significantly better. Lee and Lilly are in contract years, and only Lilly should be considered for an off season extension. Ramirez will be back, but is an injury concern. Harden will probably be allowed to walk, and probably should be. Grabow could be brought back if the price is right, but Gregg should be shown the door as soon as he's done blowing his last save this year. Aaron Miles needs to go one way or the other.

"Wait 'til next year" has long been a rallying cry for the followers of the Chicago Cubs, but in this instance we might be better served saying "wait for a few more years ... or maybe more." We are getting old, and getting more expensive. The Soriano contract will continue to cripple us from a financial standpoint, as well as limiting our flexibility on the field. What do you do with a "superstar" who can't hit or field, but whom you also owe a ton of money over the next five years? Maybe Soranio turns it around next year, and our lineup rejuvenates into a top five lineup. Our pitching staff, if healthy, should be fine, but we also need a closer (although perhaps Guzman could do the job, or Marmol if he rediscovers his ability to throw strikes). One thing is for sure: Hendry and Piniella will have their hands full this winter ... but they also will have their hands tied.

Almost There...

It's hard to believe that NFL training camps are in full swing, with the start of the regular season about a month away. I, personally, couldn't be any more excited. The NFL is the premiere sport in the USA right now, and the product it presents makes it not even close. The start of the NFL season means a number of things to me: time to draft my fantasy football teams, fall is on the way, time to bust out my Walter Payton and Brian Urlacher Jerseys, time to cherish my rare Sundays off, and time to think about my annual preseason predictions.

I'm not quite there yet (I need to give some more thought to the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC East and the NFC South, among others), but soon, very soon there will be a huge post on this blog breaking down each of the divisions, culminating in my Super Bowl predictions. I've been pretty accurate the last three years, so we'll see if I can keep that up.

As for today, this article by Don Banks of SI.com got me thinking about the Bears in particular. It seems that Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith have decided they are now a pass first team. This makes me cry inside, and makes me a bit upset on the outside. The Bears, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, are teams with a tradition built on running the ball, playing amazing defense, and controlling the clock. Basically, you grind the opponent into submission, and win the game on the line of scrimmage.

It's a beautiful way to play football, one with its roots in the oldest days of the NFL. Adding Jay Cutler gives the Bears an option that they haven't had in my lifetime: the option to throw down field and score quickly. If any of our wide receivers develop into starting quality players (and that's a big if), we will have the ability to put points on the board which we've seemingly always lacked. Greg Olsen and Matt Forte, our starting tight end and running back respectively, are excellent receiving options in their own right, but for Cutler to be truly effective he will need at least one possession receiver to move the chains, and a speed guy to stretch the defense.

Maybe Earl Bennent, Cutler's old college teammate from Vandy, will be the move the chains possession guy. Perhaps Devin Hester, with his game breaking speed, will be the deep threat that takes the safety with him deep. If it works out that way the Bears will have the makings of a potent offense. But the biggest reason they need to stay true to their grind it out, eat up the clock, control time of possession roots has nothing to do with the offense. It is because of the defense.

Two years ago at this time we had an amazing defense. It had just carried us to a Super Bowl appearance, and we were poised to go back. But the defense got old, and quick. Brian Urlacher's back and neck got in the way, Tommy Harris lost his burst and couldn't stay healthy, and the entire defensive line suddenly was incapable of getting to the QB. The way that Lovie's defense (the famed "Tampa 2") works, it is essential that the front four get pressure on the QB by themselves. If the front four can't get the job done the defense must send a blitzing linebacker or safety, leaving a hole in the coverage. In 2005-2006 the front four got pressure, and the Bears had an excellent defense that was capable of winning games without much help from the offense. The past two years, 2007 and 2008, the opposite has been true; the defense can't get the opposing offense off the field.

If the front four can take care of business then the defense will have the chance to be lethal again, but even if that happens the defense is getting older. Charles Tillman, one of our starting cornerbacks, is already out with back surgery. Nathan Vasher, our other starting CB, has seen his level of play slip greatly the past two years. We lack experience at the safety positions without Mike Brown, who couldn't stay on the field when he was here. Our linebackers, headed by Urlacher and Lance Briggs, also has seen better days. Even on the defensive line we see the age, as our top defensive ends, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, aren't getting any younger. We are getting older everywhere, and the best way to keep an old defense fresh is for the offense to control the time of possession.

The long and the short of it is that I disagree with Angelo and Smith's revelation that we need to pass first, then run. Of course, if you know my feelings on these two, you'll note that I don't agree with them too often. At least Angelo had the guts to pull the trigger on the Cutler trade this year; in years past he refused to because we already had "a great QB," no matter who our QB was. Still, Angelo's supposed strength, draft evaluation and execution, has been lacking greatly, while Smith has been exposed as a poor game manager who ran a good defensive coordinator (Ron Rivera) out of town, and then replaced him with a nobody (Bob Babich) who Lovie himself now has to take over for. Add in the nightmare that has been Ron Turner's tenure with the team (second tenure at that), and the decision making of management has to be questioned.

All that said, the future is bright now in Hallas Hall, although not quite as bright as it could have been. Angelo and Smith squandered the prime of one of the NFL's best defenses, and now they must try to make up for lost time. The right thing to do would be to work through this as a multi-year rebuilding process which has been spurred along by the acquisition of Cutler. But Smith and Angelo can't afford to rebuild; if they do they will be watching the fruits of their labor from another team, or from the unemployment line. To that end, if they really want a chance to win, the way to do it is by controlling the clock, allowing the defense the best chance to stay fresh and have an impact. Listening to Smith and Angelo talk about how they "disagree" with the experts who are questioning their talent at WR is an awful lot like listening to them argue that Grossman and Orton were the answers at QB. Nobody likes to admit they have holes in the team, but pretending you don't doesn't change reality, it just gets you into situations where you hold on to the wrong player for the wrong reasons. What Bears' management needs to do is be happy with the pick up of Cutler, but acknowledge that it is a work in progress. They need to game plan to help the defense be all it can be, and find ways to cut down on Matt Forte's touches so that he doesn't burn out in three years. Cutler needs to become an on-field coordinator, which he can be in time, so that Ron Turner's role is limited. If the Bears can do all this then they should be the favorites to win the division. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: I'm ready for some football.

My Mind Is Blown...

What a weekend. After Friday night's show, which rocked from the opening with "Bartender" all the way through the final encore of "All Along The Watchtower," now I can die in peace. Dave Matthews Band put on a show Friday that has to be among the best they've ever done. The crowd was electric from the opening chords, and the intensity never waned, even when the new songs were busted out. This concert solidified my opinion that Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King is on par with the first three albums DMB put out. New songs, old songs, it didn't matter: the band was going at full throttle, and they delivered the goods. While Saturday night's show was a bit of a letdown (but, honestly, how do you follow a night like Friday?), the whole production was amazing, and well worth the money. Now, onto a few articles that are well worth the read:

- This article is about Rickey Henderson's Hall of Fame speech. Interesting to see how he practiced and practiced to get this right. That kind of dedication is why Henderson was among the best ever.

- A good read here about Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland Atheletics, and the man behind Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball." Beane and the A's have fallen on hard times as of late, but they still run as a model franchise for mid-market teams to emulate. Still, I can't really envision a movie covering this topic. Even with Brad Pitt in the lead it seems as if it would be a bit dry at best, and a distortion of the book at the worst.

- Eugene Robinson is an excellent opinion writer for The Washington Post, one of two remaining powerhouse newspapers in America. Here, he articulately and accurately confronts the GOP over the joke of their "opposition" to the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor. Well done, Mr. Robinson, well done.

- Howard Bryant writes in detail about the tragedy of David Ortiz testing positive for PEDs in 2003. Bryant's view makes one wonder what really happened; is Ortiz an innocent who got tripped up by something from GNC, or is he really just another in the long line of hypocrites in sports? Only time will tell.