Smokin' Jay Doesn't Care ... Should We?

It's pretty rare that the crazy ideas I have for my sports teams comes to pass. I will often talk about moves they should make, and explain the total logic behind why the teams need to do it. I'm passionate about it, and then the team goes in the other direction. On occasion, however, my arm chair quarterbacking aligns perfectly with what the team does. When that happens I can hardly believe it. With the Chicago Bears, in particular, it doesn't happen often. But it did happen on April 3, 2009, when the Chicago Bears made a deal with the Denver Broncos, paying a small fortune in picks, plus esteemed Junior College (Purdue) alum Kyle Orton, in exchange for the Broncos franchise QB.

I had been in a bar with my brother earlier that year arguing that if the Broncos really wanted to get rid of Jay Cutler then the Bears had to make the move to get him. Cutler's numbers thus far had been good, but compared to the junk the Bears had rolled out week ... after week ... after week of my lifetime they looked downright epic. Cutler was coming off of a year in which he threw over 4,500 yards. While the ensuing eight years of NFL football have cheapened that number, it's still a semi-impressive number, and it was even more impressive back then. Cutler played on a team with awful defense, and hadn't been able to win. But the Bears, always seeming to be a quarterback away, would fix that problem for him. They had a great defense, and were only a few years away from playing in the Super Bowl. All they seemed to need was a competent quarterback, and Cutler promised to be much more than that.

The trade was made, and almost immediately upon being announced there was drama. Team leader and future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher gave the most lukewarm welcome to the team imaginable to Cutler, while praising the outgoing Orton. Word leaked that Cutler had refused to return the Broncos' calls for over a week preceding the trade. There was smoke that perhaps the fire of a premadonna burned deep inside Mr. Cutler. But the Bears had a QB, and suddenly they also had a brighter future. Or so we thought. That future didn't come in 2009, Cutler's first year. An injury to Urlacher in the season opener damped spirits, and the team limped to a 7-9 record. I continued my calls to fire Lovie Smith, calls which went unheeded, much like most of my calls for moves by the teams I root for (see above). The 2010 season was a pivotal one for Smith's Bears, after missing the playoffs for three straight years following the 2006 season which culminated in the Super Bowl loss to the Colts*. The Bears pulled together to save Smith by winning the NFC North with an 11-5 record, and winning in the Divisional Round of the playoffs by ousting the Seattle Seahawks. An NFC Championship Game with the Green Bay Packers loomed ... and Cutler "got hurt." Of course he did. Somehow, it appeared that the Bears didn't even have a backup quarterback on the roster, or any player beyond Cutler who had ever played quarterback. Sure, Caleb Hanie was "listed" as a quarterback, but anyone who watched that game knows the Bears were screwed when Cutler "went down**." He just stood there, on the sidelines ... looking like he didn't care ... as the Packers held on to beat the Bears. The would go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

_________________________________________________________________________________

Cutler's career in Chicago since then has been pretty bad overall. His numbers have been intermittently good, and they have been stellar compared with the history of Bears quarterbacks, but the results for the team just haven't been there. All through it, Cutler has pretty much looked like this:

Smokin' Jay Cutler just don't give a ...

The team's defense got old after the 2010 season. Lovie Smith, master of leading an underachieving team, led the team to two more underachieving years, milking out the last two decent years the defense had in 2011 and 2012. The crazy thing is he still almost saved his job in 2012 by getting to 10-6, only to miss the playoffs anyway, in a tie breaker. He was fired, and then came Trestman. That lasted two years, and in came John Fox. Two years into that, and the Bears just finished 3-13. The last time the Bears were that bad? Well, it depends on how you define it, but it's been awhile. The last time they finished with only 3 wins in a full (non-strike) season was 1973, when they went 3-11 (in a 14 game season). The last time they lost 13 games in a season was back in 1969, when they went 1-13 the year before the NFC was even founded. That year was also the last time they had a winning percentage as bad as their .188 winning percentage this last year.

Needless to say, things aren't trending in the right direction. The Bears resigned Cutler before the 2014 season, coming off his best statistical year in year one of the Marc Trestman disaster. It was a huge deal, or at least it was reported to be. Seven Years. $126.7 million dollars. That's $126,700,000. That's a lot of money. Many people have torn into the Bears over signing Cutler to this contract, but let me ask you this: have you ever looked at a list of starting Bears quarterbacks in the last 30 years? No? Well, good news my friend. I'm here to help you. Beyond Cutler, here you go (starting with the most recent non-Cutler starter, going back to the Super Bowl year of 1985):

• Brian Hoyer
• Matt Barkley
• Jimmy Clausen
• Josh McCown
• Jason Campbell
• Caleb Hanie
• Todd Collins (Note: from Collins up on this list are the Quarterbacks who have started for the Bears in place of Cutler. Because he's been injured that much. Another factor to consider.)
• Kyle Orton
• Rex Grossman
• Brian Griese
• Craig Krenzel
• Chad Hutchinson
• Jonathan Quinn
• Kordell Stewart
• Chris Chandler
• Jim Miller
• Henry Burris
• Shane Matthews
• Cade McNown
• Erik Kramer
• Steve Stenstrom
• Moses Moreno
• Rick Mirer
• Dave Krieg
• Steve Walsh
• Jim Harbaugh
• Peter Tom Willis
• Will Furrer
• Mike Tomczak
• Jim McMahon
• Mike Hohensee
• Steve Bradley
• Steve Fuller
• Doug Flutie

That is 34 quarterbacks, beyond Cutler, in 31 years. That, my friends, is terrible. And many of the quarterbacks listed above were terrible. In fact, you probably have never heard of some of them. Beyond that, I probably could have made up a name, slipped it in there, and most Bears fans wouldn't be able to tell. In fact, I might have done that. Or not. But here's another way to look at the Bears' quarterbacking situation over the last 31 years. This is the list of seasons in which the Bears only started one quarterback for all 16 games during that time period:

• 1991 - Jim Harbaugh
• 1995 - Erik Kramer
• 2006 - Rex Grossman
• 2009 - Jay Cutler

And...that's a wrap. Four seasons out of 31. Hold on, I'm curious about something...

• 1986, 1989, 1993-2009, 2012, 2014-2016

That's the list of seasons, since 1985, in which the Green Bay Packers have started only one quarterback for all 16 games. That is 23 of 31 seasons. Of course, I cherry picked the Packers, due to their stability at quarterback between Favre (he accounted for every year in that streak from 1993 until 2007) and Rodgers (every year in that streak since 2007). But it serves to prove the point: the Bears have had really crappy quarterbacks, and have had to shuffle them in and out  to injury and ineffectiveness at a maddening rate. Imagine if there was a major business that shifted managers in and out at that rate. Would we be surprised they had gone 31 years without being the top in their field? Ultimately, that's where the Bears have been. 

_________________________________________________________________________________

And that, finally, brings me to my point on this post (I know, I'm killing all 1.75 of you with my long preambles. But I'm writing again!). My purpose in this postis to ask a simple question, and attempt to give a not so simple answer. Here is the simple question:

Should the Chicago Bears keep Jay Cutler or cut Jay Cutler?

That question is valid because of the structure of that huge aforementioned deal. There was $54 million guaranteed in that contract, but now, with the first three years in the past, there is next to nothing left to hit the cap. If the Bears cut Cutler this year there would be $2,000,000 worth of dead money on the cap this year, and $1,000,000 next year. They would save a total of $30,000,000 beyond that against the cap by cutting him. The contract was one of the rare good moves the Bears have made recently because it got them a few more years to see if Cutler would put all the pieces together, all while giving them a great deal of flexibility to move on with next to no dead money on the cap once they got through three years of the contact. And so, from a financial perspective, it could easily be argued that yes, the Bears should cut him.

But the Bears already project to have just over $54 million in open cap space heading into this offseason. That is the eighth most in the league, and plenty of money to do quite a bit without touching Cutler. Because of that I would argue that, at a minimum, they should hold on to Cutler until the last possible moment, before his roster bonus is set to kick in. That gives them maximum flexibility to make the decision.

But it doesn't tell you what decision they should make. Should the Bears keep Cutler for next year? Ultimately, that comes down to what their other options are, and how they rank vis a vi Cutler. If I were to make a very quick ranking of NFL QBs by tier, this is how I would do it:

• Tier One: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers
• Tier Two: Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson
• Tier Three: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins
• Tier Four: Matt Stafford, Jamis Winston, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Eli Manning
• Tier Five: Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco
• Tier Six: Tyrod Taylor, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, Trevor Siemian
• Tier Seven: Whatever/Whoever starts for the Browns, 49ers, or Rams, along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler

Now, I left Cutler out of there (along with the Matt Barkley/Brian Hoyer pu pu platter). Where would you realistically put him on that list? I feel very confident he's above tiers seven and six. Banged up? He fits in the fifth tier for me, but healthy he easily makes it into the fourth tier for me. And that is where this becomes difficult. The Bears have a tier four/tier five QB on what amounts to a year to year contract, with no long term commitment. They have the money to spend, so it's not like they have to cut him to pay other players. The question becomes can the Bears feasibly get a QB who will be able to play their way into the top three tiers?

Realistically, the best chance they have for that is to draft one. The league is trending younger, overall, and getting a young QB who can become the next Dak Prescott, or even Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins (meaning they would take a few years to get there) is the best direction, if you can pull it off. Teams don't trade franchise quarterbacks, and if they seem like they are about to it's probably a bit of an illusion (in fact, Cutler is exhibit A in that regard!). A name often floated, in the opposite direction, is Tony Romo. But Romo's injury history isn't any better at this point that Cutler's, and his history of winning isn't any better either. Besides that, Romo would cost you more money, plus draft picks Cutler is virtually free to the Bears at this point. Finally, best case scenario, does Romo crack the third tier at this point in his career? History says no. How about paying multiple first round picks for Jimmy Garoppolo? Given how well Matt Cassell and Brian Hoyer (among others) careers have worked out after they left their backup role in New England for other jobs, I'm not willing risk that much if I'm the Bears.

In a weak QB draft, the Bears' best bet might be to bring Cutler back, then, and draft for depth at other positions. Take a swing on a QB in the middle rounds and hope you get lucky. Build the offense around timing routes and Jordan Howard, and focus on improving an already improving offensive line and defense. Until week 17 of the last seasons I hadn't seen the Bears give up on a game. They were notorious for playing tough for a half and then getting outclassed in the second half. They didn't, if I dare say, look that far away. The NFL is designed for quick turnarounds, and Cutler may in fact give the Bears their best chance of that. As long as they don't mortgage their future for that hope, I'm fine with it. And Cutler's unique contract structure makes it so that they can keep him another year... or two ... or three ... or four, without mortgaging anything. And at the end of the day, that's why we should still care about Jay Cutler ... even if Smokin' Jay doesn't ever look like he cares back. 

* As an aside, the Bears Super Bowl loss stings less to me now than it did even a year ago. We can all thank the Cubs for that. Thanks Cubs!

** That, in large part, is what contributes to the deep disdain fans feel for Cutler. He just stands there and doesn't look invested. It is the "Smokin' Jay" persona that spawned so many memes. Come to find out, Cutler really was hurt in the NFC title game, asked to go back in and was told an unequivocal no by medical staff. But he just stood there, didn't look like he was in pain, and didn't look like he cared. Inside, he might have been dying. He might have been in significant pain, and been being eaten up by the fact that his team was so close to the Super Bowl and he couldn't help them. We'll never know. Ultimately, however, it was Lovie Smith who screwed him the most by refusing to rule him out in some misguided attempt to confuse the Packers. When your coach is playing games, mid game, with injuries hoping that throws the opponent off their game ... how did we not fire that man earlier? Please, tell me? It's one of the biggest mysteries of my life. 

Sunday Recap

After watching the full Bears game for only the second time this year, I feel like its time to break down how the team arrived at 7-3. This Bears team seemed poised for a seven win year... total. Now, with six games left, they are already at seven. They are indisputably better than the lions right now, and they seem to have a schedule which makes 11-5 likely and 12-4 possible.

Still, one had to wonder what that means. Having watched this team closely today, I would give the following grades to their various units:

- quarter back - Jay Cutler has proven that he is tough, and capable of making any throw. In the last few games the offense has done better letting Cutler move the pocket, which has benefited the units ability to move the ball. If Cutler can stay upright he's slowly proving the sky is the limit.

- running back - Matt forte is among the top five backs in the league right now, but the team will need to get Marion barber worked in to the offense in order to avoid wearing forte down.

- wide receivers - Roy Williams is an enigma on a unit full of them. Having Earl Bennett back has been a huge help, and Johnny Knox continues to stretch the field. If Williams can stop dropping balls each game this unit might be sufficient.

- tight end and offensive line - I group these together because the team rarely throws downfield to the tight ends. The line is an are of major concern (more so now with the season ending injuries to Williams and Carimi ) but they are doing better with the move the pocket gameplans of late.

- d line - when peppers is on they get the requisite pressure to run lovie's defense. If he were to get hurt?....

-linebackers - urlacher and Briggs continue to be the best lb pair in the NFL. Roach is pretty decent himself.

- defensive backs - Tillman isn't great in coverage but he is physical, can tackle,  and he forces turnovers. The safety issues leave an otherwise good defense vulnerable. 

- special teams - good as Gould continues to be the Gould standard of NFL kickers under 50 yards. The punting game has improved this year, and the return game is still the best in the game.

In the whole,  the team feels like they have the ability, if they stay healthy, to position themselves for a run at the NFC again. They play Green Bay tougher than anyone, and on a cold day in Wisconsin this January anything could happen.... if only we can get there. 

On Life

Periodically I feel driven to write about something based on something I've read. Normally this happens when I'm either: A) royally pissed about something, or B) shocked and numbed by something. Today's treatise happens to be a unique combination of both. I don't promise that this will be deep and thought provoking anymore than I can promise that ever. Sometimes I hit the mark; often times I miss. But I do feel like right now is a good time to share with you some of my personal philosophy, particularly on life in general.

Today I finally got around to reading the excerpt that Sports Illustrated had from Jeff Pearlman's new book on Walter Payton. The book has taken a great deal of heat lately for taking an iconic figure, best known for being an amazing running back and an even better person, and running him through the mud via bringing out all the skeletons in his closet. And it does this a full twelve years after the man passed away tragically, well before his time. I've heard the vehement crack back against Pearlman from the likes of Mike Ditka, Mike Singletary and Brian Urlacher. I've heard the halfhearted defenses from some in the Chicago sports media, promising us that the author was only doing his job as a journalist. And I've talked to a few people about it, seeking out their views on the issue.

I'll be the first to say that it pained me to read through the excerpt. I'll also say up front that I will undoubtedly own the book someday after I run into it for $3.00 at the bargain book store or Amazon.com, mostly because that's where all sports books go, and I have a book buying addiction. But the excerpt mostly got me thinking of the reason why the reaction was so vehemently against Pearlman. Honestly, you are hard pressed to find anyone who will stand up and say "yup, that was Walter, he was suicidal, depressed, hiked up on pain killers, and generally negative in life after the NFL." But why the negative reaction? Ditka, Singletary and the likes almost seem as if they are defending a Saint or a war hero with their adamant rebukes of Pearlman's work. The answer, in fact, may sit firmly in that last thought.

Hero ... can a football superstar truly be a hero? Charles Barkley famously articulated the concept that he was not a "role-model" and that he didn't want to be. What was lost in translation for much of the media who belittled Chuck for "dodging" his status as a defacto role model was that his argument was actually quite sound. "Stop looking to me to raise your child from an NBA game and commercials and step up and do it yourself" was really the gist of Barkley's sentiment. On the flip side, the media is right: Barkley was a role model, whether he liked it or not, because kids will always look up to those they wish to become. Hell, a good many adults will do the same thing. Both sides were right, and both were also wrong. It all depended on your point of view.

And still, what hurts the most about the new revelations about Payton, true or not, is mired in that same controversy. In this case it comes down to one question about Payton: hero or not? Walter the player was brilliant, but he also played right before the dawn of the new media age which would lionize sports stars like Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning. That Payton was an all time great is not in question if you watched the tape, but what made him more than a football icon was the way in which he carefully crafted an image that was supported by all those around him. If the book is right he was a part of a sham marriage for the last decade plus of his life ... but his wife has nary a negative word to say about him. She stood by him until the end. She did not take the opportunity to make it a big deal, to allow it to tear apart Walter's image. If what the book professes is true, many other key players around Payton had the same opportunity ... and passed on taking the man down.

What does that tell us? It's impossible to say for certain, but if I had to guess I'd say that it reveals one simple fact: Walter Payton was bigger than life, and served a greater purpose as an idea than he did as a man. And those around him understood that, and worked hard to protect that image. Mike Singletary famously had a fallout with Payton due to Walter's infidelity ... yet he came back to his side in the end to make peace, counsel his friend as he headed towards death, and now stands up to defend him. Mike Ditka still has his back over a decade after he passed. Something about Payton's legacy is worth defending it ... and these people are defending in an outspoken, forceful way.

And that leads me to the opposite of Payton's death: the sudden and extremely unexpected death of Apple icon Steve Jobs. The man who created Apple, was forced out, then came back to Apple when it was on the scrap heap and built it into a mega power in the media world. The same Jobs who stepped down as CEO barely more than a month ago. Last I checked, we don't even know what happened. The media speculates it was cancer, or something of that ilk, but for all we know it could have been a car crash. Jobs in death is much the same as in life: shrouded in intentional mystery. Jobs is the anti-Payton: there is no image to protect here beyond that of a brilliant business man. You could tell me anything about Jobs personal life at this point from him being a devout Catholic to him routinely flying to Taiwan to solicit prostitution, and I'd probably not be able to argue with you. We don't know him. Many may admire him. But we don't know him.

Jobs legacy will be in the tangible: Apple is now a major world player, and it wouldn't have been without his return. The IPod you use daily is a reminder of him. The IPhone that your friends are falling over themselves to use is a reminder. If you are super geeky, the computer you have is a reminder of him. But very few people will draw on Steve Jobs, the person, for inspiration. Many people, conversely, draw on Walter Payton the person for inspiration. Steve Jobs was a person. Walter Payton became something more: a concept, an idea ... a hero.

It's all summed up in the title of Payton's book: Never Die Easy. It's a simple concept that is illustrated beautifully in the way he ran the football: don't take the easy way out, and if you are going to fail then do so giving it your all. It's a creed you can live by. And when we take an assault to the idea that we have raised up ... to the hero we idolize ... then we react very negatively. That's what your seeing around the nation as Pearlman's book gets its ten seconds of fame before it will undoubtedly fade into nothing, and then eventually into my bookshelves off of the discount rack. We need Payton now more than ever because he is not a man, or the memory of a man, but the memory of something we all can hold on to for strength. And we are not alright with someone trying to wake us up to a simple and extremely beautiful fact: we are all human. It's what gives us life, that imperfection that allows us to fail and allows us to experience joy when we succeed. Walter Payton may or may not have done the things outlined in the book. I don't know, and honestly I don't even care. Because at the end of the day I know that there are two Walter Paytons living inside my mind: the man and the idea. The man may have been flawed, but it doesn't matter because I didn't know him. The idea is the athlete, the greatest of all time, the hero. I know him deeply ... and he will live on inside of me forever.

The Massacre at the Meadowlands

The Massacre at the Meadowlands ... I just got home from work at 11PM EST, turned on the Bears-Giants game ... and holy crap. I guess we found out that the Bears are who we thought they were: a poorly coached, poorly managed team that lost week one (let's be honest here) and were handed a game last week.

Now hear me out, because I know the "you just hate Lovie" chants can't be far behind ...

- Last year our offensive line was ... well ... offensive. We couldn't run the ball or protect our QB all year long. So what did we do to improve it this offseason? Well ... nothing. At all. We brought back the same group of scrubs that we trotted out last year. During the first three weeks of the season it was painfully obvious that if Cutler were to make it through the year upright it would be a miracle. Tonight, from what I can tell, all hell broke loose. Cutler knocked out of the game, Todd Collins knocked out of the game (I'll get back to him in a minute) ... nothing. All because our brilliant management decided the offensive line would magically improve.

- We cut a young QB with upside (Dan LeFevour) to keep an antique version of a clip-board holder (Todd Collins) ... and then we actually played Collins? How is this guy still in the league? He wasn't good back when he could actually stand upright, and now we expect him to QB for us after Cutler goes down? Are you serious? In what world does this make sense?

- Finally, I didn't see the game, so I have to go to my right hand man, the Bowser, for his analysis:

"The Coaching is awful, and I mean bad. This is the most ridiculous game I've ever watched. It's completely pathetic. I want Lovie one on one in a cage match."

This is the breakdown of an individual who: a) knows football, b) loves the Bears, and C) is generally pretty logical about these things. I don't need to rewatch the tape to know that if it struck him this way it was a really poorly coached game. But, friends, it all starts up front, and due to Lovie and Jerry's magic plan of crossing their fingers to fix the o-line we may be in deep junk.

So ... can we fire these pathetic excuses for coaches and front office personnel yet?

Why You Spell Desperation B.E.A.R.S.

Desperation ... not exactly the feeling you want your professional sports franchise to operate under, but that is where we Chicago fans find ourselves all too often. When the Bulls missed out on the likes of Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill and Tim Duncan around the year 2000 they, in desperation, took the dive for Ron Mercer. When the Cubs felt the need to "make a splash" to prove they were a big time power they invested $136 million in Alphonso Soriano. Just out of curiosity ... how did those two situations end up?

Now we have the Bears. Already short draft picks due to the acquisition of Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams, the Bears have evidently decided that they have the money to throw at free agency. In the first 24 hours the markets have been open we have seen the team throw over $40 million dollars, guaranteed, at three players for the 2010 season. Those players (Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor and Brandon Manumaleuna) now represent the supposed hope for our next season. But let's look a little bit deeper and ask if this even makes any sense, or if we are just seeing desperation yet again.

First, consider that this is the Bears we are talking about. This is the same team that was too cheap to bring back Ron Rivera, the same team that was too cheap to fire Lovie Smith this offseason, even though they all but admitted it was time, because he was owed $11.5 million over the next two years. This is the same ownership group that has, time and again, taken then cheap way out. Yet here we are, throwing money at the "problem" like we are the damn Yankees themselves. What gives?

First, this shows how much pressure the entire front office is under to win. If the Bears have yet another disappointing showing they will likely fire the entire front office. Of course, even if they don't they should can everyone; this team lacks leadership or brainpower. That said, this move shows the mindset of the team heading into this year: win, or else.

So can this threesome of free agents do anything to help us accomplish that goal? First, let's look at Manumaleuna. The Bears already have two tight ends who are capable down field receivers, but Manumaleuna doesn't do that; he had only five catches last year. What he brings to Soldier Field is two distinct things: he knows Mike Martz offense from their days in St. Louis together, and he knows how to run block with the best of them. This deal makes a great deal of sense because last year we had nobody who could run block, and it's highly unlikely that Greg Olsen, pretty boy that he is, will ever develop the fortitude to gut it out in the trenches. The addition of Manumaleuna gives the Bears a player who will execute a run-blocking scheme, and help to spring Matt Forte, or Chester Taylor, free.

Secondly, let's look at Taylor. He is 30 years old, which is traditionally a bad age to be a running back. To his benefit, however, Taylor has had a light workload these past few years. He has had one year as the starter, running for over 1,200 yards, and has otherwise excelled as a pass catcher on 3rd down, a good pass blocker, and a tough runner in short bursts. The Taylor signing makes sense because it gives the Bears two backs, along with Forte, who can run the ball as well as catch it. It helps them to control the clock, and it is a high reward, low risk type signing due to the lack of wear and tear on Taylor thus far. At only $12.5 million over four years, Taylor's signing was fiscally responsible and made football sense. This one was a huge win for the team.

Finally, let's look at the biggest fish of them all: Julius Peppers. A contract worth $91.5 million total, over $40 million guaranteed ... a contract worthy of the NFL's elite players only. Is Peppers an elite player then? That would seem to be the question which remains to be answered. He was certainly the biggest name in the free agent market this year, bar none, but he wasn't talked about as reverently as Albert Haynesworth was last year. With Peppers the question has been, and will always be, one word: motivation. When motivated Peppers is a terror on the defensive line along the likes of Jarred Allen and Dwight Freeney. He is not exceptionally strong in the run game, but he is capable of punishing opposing QB's by himself. He will command a double team when he actually tries, making it easier for other players (Alex Brown, Tommy Harris, etc) to get to the QB unimpeded. But will he actually try? A breakdown of his numbers indicate that, with Peppers, the more established he has become the less he has cared:

2002 - 12 sacks in 12 games
2003 - 7 sacks in 16 games
2004 - 11 sacks in 16 games
2005 - 10.5 sacks in 16 games
2006 - 13 sacks in 16 games
2007 - 2.5 sacks in 14 games
2008 - 14.5 sacks in 16 games
2009 - 10.5 sacks in 16 games

When Peppers was playing for a contract, in 2008, he was nearly indestructible. Last year, franchise tagged with a value of over $17 million for one year, it took a teammate calling him out for him to get over the one sack mark. From there he finished strong, but the Panthers season was already for naught. Peppers is a unique talent: a defensive end strong enough to bull rush, but quick enough to run around the end. When motivated he is a terror, but how motivated will Lovie Smith be able to make him? How motivated has Lovie been able to get Tommy Harris and Nathan Vasher since they got their big money extensions? How motivated has Mark Anderson been since he became a hero his rookie year? Motivation is far from Lovie's strength; it is, in fact, his biggest weakness. Lovie couldn't motivate a deer sitting in the middle of the road to get out the way of a speeding semi-truck. Lovie is the un-motivator. Maybe Rod Marinelli, who was supposed to be the defensive line's savior last year, will motivate Peppers as the defensive coordinator. Still, Rod couldn't motivate anyone last year, so I'm hard pressed to believe that's a good fit either.

Maybe this will work out when the Bears, without "financial responsibility" as something to hide behind, fire Lovie and install Bill Cowher as head coach. Cowher could motivate Peppers. Even with Lovie's useless self in the head role this was a good idea because the only way his boring, worthless cover 2 defense works is if the defensive line gets to the QB quickly; Peppers can do that. But I can't help but believe this signing is a carbon copy of the Cubs signing of Soriano: we're paying someone to do something the probably can't or won't do as well in the future. It's a heck of a lot of money to gamble on an unmotivated player motivating himself. I wish they would have just used a quarter of it and canned Lovie when they had the chance.

Almost There...

It's hard to believe that NFL training camps are in full swing, with the start of the regular season about a month away. I, personally, couldn't be any more excited. The NFL is the premiere sport in the USA right now, and the product it presents makes it not even close. The start of the NFL season means a number of things to me: time to draft my fantasy football teams, fall is on the way, time to bust out my Walter Payton and Brian Urlacher Jerseys, time to cherish my rare Sundays off, and time to think about my annual preseason predictions.

I'm not quite there yet (I need to give some more thought to the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC East and the NFC South, among others), but soon, very soon there will be a huge post on this blog breaking down each of the divisions, culminating in my Super Bowl predictions. I've been pretty accurate the last three years, so we'll see if I can keep that up.

As for today, this article by Don Banks of SI.com got me thinking about the Bears in particular. It seems that Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith have decided they are now a pass first team. This makes me cry inside, and makes me a bit upset on the outside. The Bears, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, are teams with a tradition built on running the ball, playing amazing defense, and controlling the clock. Basically, you grind the opponent into submission, and win the game on the line of scrimmage.

It's a beautiful way to play football, one with its roots in the oldest days of the NFL. Adding Jay Cutler gives the Bears an option that they haven't had in my lifetime: the option to throw down field and score quickly. If any of our wide receivers develop into starting quality players (and that's a big if), we will have the ability to put points on the board which we've seemingly always lacked. Greg Olsen and Matt Forte, our starting tight end and running back respectively, are excellent receiving options in their own right, but for Cutler to be truly effective he will need at least one possession receiver to move the chains, and a speed guy to stretch the defense.

Maybe Earl Bennent, Cutler's old college teammate from Vandy, will be the move the chains possession guy. Perhaps Devin Hester, with his game breaking speed, will be the deep threat that takes the safety with him deep. If it works out that way the Bears will have the makings of a potent offense. But the biggest reason they need to stay true to their grind it out, eat up the clock, control time of possession roots has nothing to do with the offense. It is because of the defense.

Two years ago at this time we had an amazing defense. It had just carried us to a Super Bowl appearance, and we were poised to go back. But the defense got old, and quick. Brian Urlacher's back and neck got in the way, Tommy Harris lost his burst and couldn't stay healthy, and the entire defensive line suddenly was incapable of getting to the QB. The way that Lovie's defense (the famed "Tampa 2") works, it is essential that the front four get pressure on the QB by themselves. If the front four can't get the job done the defense must send a blitzing linebacker or safety, leaving a hole in the coverage. In 2005-2006 the front four got pressure, and the Bears had an excellent defense that was capable of winning games without much help from the offense. The past two years, 2007 and 2008, the opposite has been true; the defense can't get the opposing offense off the field.

If the front four can take care of business then the defense will have the chance to be lethal again, but even if that happens the defense is getting older. Charles Tillman, one of our starting cornerbacks, is already out with back surgery. Nathan Vasher, our other starting CB, has seen his level of play slip greatly the past two years. We lack experience at the safety positions without Mike Brown, who couldn't stay on the field when he was here. Our linebackers, headed by Urlacher and Lance Briggs, also has seen better days. Even on the defensive line we see the age, as our top defensive ends, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, aren't getting any younger. We are getting older everywhere, and the best way to keep an old defense fresh is for the offense to control the time of possession.

The long and the short of it is that I disagree with Angelo and Smith's revelation that we need to pass first, then run. Of course, if you know my feelings on these two, you'll note that I don't agree with them too often. At least Angelo had the guts to pull the trigger on the Cutler trade this year; in years past he refused to because we already had "a great QB," no matter who our QB was. Still, Angelo's supposed strength, draft evaluation and execution, has been lacking greatly, while Smith has been exposed as a poor game manager who ran a good defensive coordinator (Ron Rivera) out of town, and then replaced him with a nobody (Bob Babich) who Lovie himself now has to take over for. Add in the nightmare that has been Ron Turner's tenure with the team (second tenure at that), and the decision making of management has to be questioned.

All that said, the future is bright now in Hallas Hall, although not quite as bright as it could have been. Angelo and Smith squandered the prime of one of the NFL's best defenses, and now they must try to make up for lost time. The right thing to do would be to work through this as a multi-year rebuilding process which has been spurred along by the acquisition of Cutler. But Smith and Angelo can't afford to rebuild; if they do they will be watching the fruits of their labor from another team, or from the unemployment line. To that end, if they really want a chance to win, the way to do it is by controlling the clock, allowing the defense the best chance to stay fresh and have an impact. Listening to Smith and Angelo talk about how they "disagree" with the experts who are questioning their talent at WR is an awful lot like listening to them argue that Grossman and Orton were the answers at QB. Nobody likes to admit they have holes in the team, but pretending you don't doesn't change reality, it just gets you into situations where you hold on to the wrong player for the wrong reasons. What Bears' management needs to do is be happy with the pick up of Cutler, but acknowledge that it is a work in progress. They need to game plan to help the defense be all it can be, and find ways to cut down on Matt Forte's touches so that he doesn't burn out in three years. Cutler needs to become an on-field coordinator, which he can be in time, so that Ron Turner's role is limited. If the Bears can do all this then they should be the favorites to win the division. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: I'm ready for some football.