Saturday, March 6, 2010

Why You Spell Desperation B.E.A.R.S.

Desperation ... not exactly the feeling you want your professional sports franchise to operate under, but that is where we Chicago fans find ourselves all too often. When the Bulls missed out on the likes of Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill and Tim Duncan around the year 2000 they, in desperation, took the dive for Ron Mercer. When the Cubs felt the need to "make a splash" to prove they were a big time power they invested $136 million in Alphonso Soriano. Just out of curiosity ... how did those two situations end up?

Now we have the Bears. Already short draft picks due to the acquisition of Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams, the Bears have evidently decided that they have the money to throw at free agency. In the first 24 hours the markets have been open we have seen the team throw over $40 million dollars, guaranteed, at three players for the 2010 season. Those players (Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor and Brandon Manumaleuna) now represent the supposed hope for our next season. But let's look a little bit deeper and ask if this even makes any sense, or if we are just seeing desperation yet again.

First, consider that this is the Bears we are talking about. This is the same team that was too cheap to bring back Ron Rivera, the same team that was too cheap to fire Lovie Smith this offseason, even though they all but admitted it was time, because he was owed $11.5 million over the next two years. This is the same ownership group that has, time and again, taken then cheap way out. Yet here we are, throwing money at the "problem" like we are the damn Yankees themselves. What gives?

First, this shows how much pressure the entire front office is under to win. If the Bears have yet another disappointing showing they will likely fire the entire front office. Of course, even if they don't they should can everyone; this team lacks leadership or brainpower. That said, this move shows the mindset of the team heading into this year: win, or else.

So can this threesome of free agents do anything to help us accomplish that goal? First, let's look at Manumaleuna. The Bears already have two tight ends who are capable down field receivers, but Manumaleuna doesn't do that; he had only five catches last year. What he brings to Soldier Field is two distinct things: he knows Mike Martz offense from their days in St. Louis together, and he knows how to run block with the best of them. This deal makes a great deal of sense because last year we had nobody who could run block, and it's highly unlikely that Greg Olsen, pretty boy that he is, will ever develop the fortitude to gut it out in the trenches. The addition of Manumaleuna gives the Bears a player who will execute a run-blocking scheme, and help to spring Matt Forte, or Chester Taylor, free.

Secondly, let's look at Taylor. He is 30 years old, which is traditionally a bad age to be a running back. To his benefit, however, Taylor has had a light workload these past few years. He has had one year as the starter, running for over 1,200 yards, and has otherwise excelled as a pass catcher on 3rd down, a good pass blocker, and a tough runner in short bursts. The Taylor signing makes sense because it gives the Bears two backs, along with Forte, who can run the ball as well as catch it. It helps them to control the clock, and it is a high reward, low risk type signing due to the lack of wear and tear on Taylor thus far. At only $12.5 million over four years, Taylor's signing was fiscally responsible and made football sense. This one was a huge win for the team.

Finally, let's look at the biggest fish of them all: Julius Peppers. A contract worth $91.5 million total, over $40 million guaranteed ... a contract worthy of the NFL's elite players only. Is Peppers an elite player then? That would seem to be the question which remains to be answered. He was certainly the biggest name in the free agent market this year, bar none, but he wasn't talked about as reverently as Albert Haynesworth was last year. With Peppers the question has been, and will always be, one word: motivation. When motivated Peppers is a terror on the defensive line along the likes of Jarred Allen and Dwight Freeney. He is not exceptionally strong in the run game, but he is capable of punishing opposing QB's by himself. He will command a double team when he actually tries, making it easier for other players (Alex Brown, Tommy Harris, etc) to get to the QB unimpeded. But will he actually try? A breakdown of his numbers indicate that, with Peppers, the more established he has become the less he has cared:

2002 - 12 sacks in 12 games
2003 - 7 sacks in 16 games
2004 - 11 sacks in 16 games
2005 - 10.5 sacks in 16 games
2006 - 13 sacks in 16 games
2007 - 2.5 sacks in 14 games
2008 - 14.5 sacks in 16 games
2009 - 10.5 sacks in 16 games

When Peppers was playing for a contract, in 2008, he was nearly indestructible. Last year, franchise tagged with a value of over $17 million for one year, it took a teammate calling him out for him to get over the one sack mark. From there he finished strong, but the Panthers season was already for naught. Peppers is a unique talent: a defensive end strong enough to bull rush, but quick enough to run around the end. When motivated he is a terror, but how motivated will Lovie Smith be able to make him? How motivated has Lovie been able to get Tommy Harris and Nathan Vasher since they got their big money extensions? How motivated has Mark Anderson been since he became a hero his rookie year? Motivation is far from Lovie's strength; it is, in fact, his biggest weakness. Lovie couldn't motivate a deer sitting in the middle of the road to get out the way of a speeding semi-truck. Lovie is the un-motivator. Maybe Rod Marinelli, who was supposed to be the defensive line's savior last year, will motivate Peppers as the defensive coordinator. Still, Rod couldn't motivate anyone last year, so I'm hard pressed to believe that's a good fit either.

Maybe this will work out when the Bears, without "financial responsibility" as something to hide behind, fire Lovie and install Bill Cowher as head coach. Cowher could motivate Peppers. Even with Lovie's useless self in the head role this was a good idea because the only way his boring, worthless cover 2 defense works is if the defensive line gets to the QB quickly; Peppers can do that. But I can't help but believe this signing is a carbon copy of the Cubs signing of Soriano: we're paying someone to do something the probably can't or won't do as well in the future. It's a heck of a lot of money to gamble on an unmotivated player motivating himself. I wish they would have just used a quarter of it and canned Lovie when they had the chance.

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