Paradise? What is it, and how will we know when we get there? Those are the questions that will be answered tomorrow, in concurrent games. Last week I inverted myself from week one, but still went 5-3 over all, bringing my post season record to 10-6. Let's just say that I'd be making money this postseason ... if gambling were legal. Last week: 2-2 against the spread, 3-1 on the money line. I was perfect heading into Sunday, but Seattle couldn't cover when Chicago decided they wanted to show who was boss, and ... what the heck happened with New England? Wow. So here we are: Championship Sunday. The Bears and the Steelers are hosting their respective title games. Are the sports Gods finally giving me what I deserve, or are they about to stick it to me worse than any time since Bears V Colts?
SUNDAY'S GAMES
3:00 PM EST - Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears
The Sports Gods Hate Me: Green Bay has a ton of speed, a ton of talent, and they can rush the passer better than anyone. The Bears, you may or may not have heard, can't block a blind kid on roller skates. Green Bay has the better QB, the better receivers, the better defense ... they should have this game wrapped up if you are listening to the media, all of whom proclaimed the Packers as the golden team at the start of the year. And ... um ... did you see what they did to Atlanta last week? Crap... Oh yeah, and we also had a chance to eliminate them from the playoffs week 17 and didn't, so we are playing them because we didn't finish them off when we had the chance. That's usually not a good sign.
I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Bears - Saints had a similar feel in 2006: the Bears were given a bad rap heading in due to an inconsistent offense, and they were facing the up and coming dynamite offense in the league. Furthermore, Green Bay shouldn't be able to light it up on Soldier Field's actual football surface like they did on the fast track indoors. The irony of this matchup is that Green Bay, our oldest rival, one of the few teams who know that football is meant to be played like men, out doors, has a team that fits better in a dome. Additional irony? The Bears might fall into that category as well. But for this game it should help the Bears more than hurt them, as it should slow the receivers and pass rush that the Pack used so effectively last week.
Look at this line: the Bears and Pack split the regular season, including a final game that was win or else for Green Bay in which the Bears shut out the Packers offense for 48 MINUTES. But, as I told Bowser last Saturday while Green Bay was decapitating Atlanta: "no way Green Bay isn't the favorite in this game." Still, I'm shocked the line is this high.
The Breakdown: Green Bay has the advantage on the offensive side of the ball by far (the only area you could even give to Chicago would be the running game, if Martz decides to use it). Still, I got the feeling that Chicago tried to beat Green Bay week 17 without using its' offense at all. I think they came in to the game and said "let's see if we can be the Pack, on their field, using our defense and special teams alone." And you know what: we almost did it. On the defensive side of the ball Green Bay was fifth in total yards allow, while Lovie's "Bend and hope you don't break" defense ranked ninth. In points allowed per game the Pack was 2nd (15 flat per game) while the Bears were 4th (17.9 per game). Our special teams are vastly superior to Green Bays, and that will help to determine field position. This is a game that can be had, so long as the Bears do not make critical mistakes. Last week Cutler had two throws where the Seahawks player flat out dropped the interception. Green Bay won't do that; Williams and Woodson are ball hawks in the truest sense of the word, and Matthews, A.J. Hawk and Collins will kill you if you have indecision. Chicago can win this game ... if Jay Cutler can play like Aaron Rogers and not like the ghost of Sexy Rexy has taken over.
How I jinxed the team: I might have told my parents that I would find a way to be in Dallas in two weeks if the circumstances were right. Probably shouldn't have said that.
A final word: How crazy is it that the Bears might actually have the coaching advantage in this game? Mike McCarthy is one of the worst game managers in the league; he calls stupid time outs, doesn't understand the flow of the game, and generally is a bone head. Lovie isn't great, but I feel like he's a tiny bit better here. Still, this game is going to come down to who wants it more, and who forces the other team to make the big mistake.
The Pick: Bears +4 over Green Bay / Chicago 27 - Green Bay 24 (OT)
(That's right, overtime baby. In the word's of then Senator, now President Obama, from Bears - Saints: "It's been a great ride, but the fairy tale ends Sunday at Soldier field." I hope that sentiment rings true this week).
6:30 PM EST - NY Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
The Sports Gods Hate Me: I've picked against the Jets two straight weeks, and they've won two straight weeks. Their coach and players have been talking crap, but somehow not getting bad karma for it. Every game is the most important, personal, monumental game in Rex Ryan's life somehow. Mark Sanchez, easily one of the ten worst starting QBs in the NFL today, somehow has won four road playoff games in two year, tying him for the most all time. Pittsburgh also has no offensive line ... at all ... and boatloads of bad karma with the Big Ben. Plus, New York has now taken down the top two QBs of the past decade by most measures (Manning and Brady). Only Big Ben stands in their way of the trifecta of AFC QBs.
I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Pittsburgh is better coached, has the better QB, the better WRs, and the better defense. Pittsburgh is playing at home, Pittsburgh knows how to win big games. And, as they showed last week, they know how to take a stomach punch (down two TDs to Baltimore at the half) and rebound. They make big plays. Plus my "Deranek - 88" Steelers jersey won them the game last week. It's good luck.
Look at this line: I'm a bit nervous that it's -4 for the Steelers; that means the money and public sentiment is coming down pretty strongly on the Pittsburgh side of the equation. I would have felt quite a bit more comfortable if it was -3, particularly since the Jets already beat Pittsburgh once this year.
The Breakdown: Of course, that defeat was against a Pittsburgh team that was more beat up, and it still barely happened. Pittsburgh has the better defense and the QB you'd want doing a two minute drive with this game on the line. At the end of the day it is just so hard for me to comprehend the Jets, with a QB who can't make throws half the time, winning three straight road games to make it to the Super Bowl. And then there is this: only one team in the history of the NFL has made it to the Super Bowl as a #6 seed. The Jets and Packers are the six seeds in their respective conferences. Is this really going to happen? I can't see it happening at all; Pittsburgh has played sneaky tough all year, and they were my preseason AFC champion. 'Nuff said.
How I jinxed the team: Like I said: Steelers #88 Jersey with Deranek on the back. Great Christmas gift. Not good in the Karma department. Also, if I pick Pittsburgh here I am basically begging the Jets to become this year's version of the Arizona Cardinals: beat my picks three straight weeks into the Super Bowl. Maybe they are peaking at the right time.
A final word: If Rex Ryan manages to get a team QB'd by Mark "Sexy Rexy Clone" Sanchez into the Super Bowl, he would own one of the greatest feats in the history of the NFL. He really has put his best foot forward by taking all the pressure off his team with his crazy antics. It really show that Buddy used to give him a kick in the ass when he was younger. It's amazing to think that this Jets team, which destroyed New England last week, was only able to get by Indianapolis by a foot. (Actually, let's just move this paragraph up to the "how I jinxed the team" category. Damn you Wes Welker).
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-4) over NY Jets / Pittsburgh 20 - New York 13
(Final side note: taking Pittsburgh minus the points is not easy; this game could end up by a field goal very easily. But come on, the dream is still alive, and deeper in the year than at any point in my lifetime. Two tickets to paradise?)
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2011, Part 2
And then there were eight. The New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts have already had their dreams crushed. Some in shocking ways (the Saints being handled by 7-9 Seattle), some having their heart broken (hello Peyton) and two games that really weren't that engaging (Philly had peaked and KC was not very exciting as a team).
On the whole I went 3-1 against the spread, and 2-2 straight up. So what have we learned, where are we going, and what's the deciding factor going to be in round two of the NFL playoffs?
SATURDAY GAMES
4:30 PM - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
What have we learned?: Baltimore was aptly described by Mike Lombardi as being an offense that tries to do too many things, like a restaurant that tries to serve too many dishes, without doing any of them well. Last week we saw that up close and personal, as any time Baltimore tried to do something on offense that didn't involve the words "Ray" and "Rice" it did not look all that pleasant. That said, Baltimore had a classic game in my opinion: they wore the opposing team down using a style that controlled time of possession. I turned to my friend Ryan at the half and pointed out the difference in number of plays and time of possession, then said that Baltimore would beat KC going away in the second half. They did, but they won't be as capable of doing that in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are more than capable of playing that style of ball as well.
Where are we going?: In all likelihood we are headed for yet another epic slug fest that makes you think back to the football games of yore. Very few games are as entertaining and riveting as Pittsburgh - Baltimore because of three main components: 1) both teams play football the way it is supposed to be played (running the ball, playing defense, hard hitting), 2) neither team likes each other at all, and 3) they have both been genuine Super Bowl contenders more times than not. Their game a few years back when Pittsburgh ended up winning the Super Bowl was the best game of the playoffs that year. These teams are like old, worn boxers at this point: both know each others flaws, both know when to counter punch, and it will likely come down to one play which swings it in the favor of one team. These teams split their season series this year, had identical regular season records, and we should probably feel fortunate we get to see round three again this year, just like in 2009.
The deciding factor: Who has the most play makers capable of making the aforementioned one big play needed to decide this game? This drill is pretty straight forward: Pittsburgh has three on defense (Woodley, Harrison and Polamalu) and another three on offense (Big Ben, Mendenhall, and Mike Wallace). Baltimore has two on defense (the aging quick Ray Lewis and aging quicker Ed Reed), and one on offense (Ray Rice). Simply put, Baltimore doesn't have as many players who are at any moment capable of turning this thing; Pittsburgh has a number of them. Finally, Big Ben is a winning QB in the post season: tough to bring down, capable of extending plays, with great field vision and a belief that he is going to win. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has a great deal of learning to do, and seems to shrink from the big moment.
The pick: Pittsburgh 24 - Baltimore 17 / Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore
8:00PM - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
What have we learned?: Green Bay, up two touchdowns in the first half at Philadelphia last week, let off the gas pedal. Accordingly they narrowly escaped after the Eagles gained traction. Beyond that, we saw yet again that Green Bay has a QB in Aaron Rodgers who can win games, and a defense which is capable of winning over the long haul. We also learned that Atlanta, beyond being beatable at home, can struggle at times when playing against a team who can control the pace of the game. Green Bay can do that, but they can't afford to not finish the Falcons off like they did last week.
Where are we going?: I'm hoping we are going towards the most epic NFC title game of my lifetime at least (Bears v Packers). In breaking this game down we can easily see that Atlanta has the advantage in terms of a balanced attack (courtesy of Michael Turner), but it isn't as if Atlanta is much more experienced in the playoffs than Green Bay under Rodgers. In fact, "Matty Ice" has an 0-1 record in the playoffs, while Aaron Rodgers is 1-1. The Packers defense seems to be a better, and a look at the statistics shows they were fifth in total yards allowed, and second in points allowed. Atlanta, on the other hand, was fifth in points allowed and sixteenth in yards allowed. The long and the short of it is that my brain tells me that Atlanta was by far the best team in the NFC this year, but recent common sense has told me that Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, and that Atlanta was shown for what it is a few weeks back on Monday night football by New Orleans.
The deciding factor: Rodgers or Ryan? Which QB do you think is more capable of winning a big game? This game feels very much like a situation where people aren't even giving Atlanta a chance to win this game. A home team, the number one seed in the conference being only a two point favorite? Vegas is basically saying that Green Bay is the better team, the favorite. That makes me nervous. But I'd take Rodgers in the aforementioned match up. That's the deciding factor for this game.
The pick: Green Bay 37 - Atlanta 27 / Green Bay (+2) over Atlanta
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10)
What have we learned?: My head is still spinning about Seattle beating New Orleans, but I suppose this validates the "any given Sunday" philosophy. For the second straight week the Seahawks enter play as a double digit underdog. Last week I said that the Seahawks didn't have anything to speak of, and then Marshawn Lynch went nuts, Matt Hasselbeck had an all-career game, and the defense did just enough. So what have we learned? That my terror about betting against a NFC West team which was awful for the season was well founded? I'm going to go with that. Again, this couldn't have come better on paper for my Bears, who just managed to draw a 7-9 team to Soldier Field for the second round of the playoffs. Looks great in theory.
Where are we going?: Towards an ulcer for me? Seattle beat Chicago once already this year, and they have the "nobody believed in us" momentum going strong in their favor. Lovie Smith is a pretty poor coach, but he seems to have the defense and special teams in a order based on the last few weeks of the regular season. The offense, on the other hand, relies on a shoddy offensive line which can't block, which leads to a quarter back who is jumpy at best, and a running game which struggles to gain traction. The Bears had the third worst offense in the NFL this year; only Carolina and Arizona totaled fewer yards. You can't feel good about that. But Seattle was so bad this year....
The deciding factor: If the Bears defense shows up I can't believe that Seattle will be able to score like they did last time. But let's be honest: the deciding factor here is that there is no way I can pick against the Bears, particularly when we are talking about freaking Seattle coming into Soldier Field. That doesn't mean I have to like it, and I think this line is way too high. That only leaves one option...
The pick: Chicago 24 - Seattle 21 / Seattle (+10) over Chicago
4:30PM - New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)
What have we learned?: Peyton Manning is 35, the Colts are beat up, and we may be seeing the great Peyton's transition in the the late Dan Marino phase of his career. That's why we have Pats v Jets: Manning just couldn't make the throws that he needed to last week, or that he would have in the past. Now we get the rubber match of two teams which couldn't be more different. The Jets are loud, brash, trash talking and high profiled, while the Patriots regained their rightful place as the low key, underrated, team of no names. Talk about polar opposites.
Where are we going?: This year these teams played two games: Jets 28 - Pats 14, and Pats 45 Jets 3. Week two the Pats were still forcing the ball to Randy Moss, and they got handled in the nice weather by Mark Sanchez. By week 13 the Pats were spreading the ball around and controlling the game, while the weather had gotten bad and Sanchez's play had gone into the toilet. Really, here's what I think you need to know:
Quarterback A: 3,291 yards, 54.8% completion percentage, 17 TD, 13 INT, 75.3 QB rating
Quarterback B: 3,193 yards, 54.6% completion percentage, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 QB rating
Quarterback A? Mark Sanchez this year. QB B? Rex Grossman in 2006, the year the Bears made the Super Bowl. Let's just say that Jets fans shouldn't be too excited about the Sanchise.
The deciding factor: Brady or Sanchez? I just can't see the Jets competing with the same New England team that I watched shred the Bears and the Jets.
The pick: New England 38 - New York 17 / New England (-9) over New York
Playoff record thus far against the spread: 3-1
Playoff record thus far straight up: 2-2
Combined playoff record thus far: 5-3
On the whole I went 3-1 against the spread, and 2-2 straight up. So what have we learned, where are we going, and what's the deciding factor going to be in round two of the NFL playoffs?
SATURDAY GAMES
4:30 PM - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
What have we learned?: Baltimore was aptly described by Mike Lombardi as being an offense that tries to do too many things, like a restaurant that tries to serve too many dishes, without doing any of them well. Last week we saw that up close and personal, as any time Baltimore tried to do something on offense that didn't involve the words "Ray" and "Rice" it did not look all that pleasant. That said, Baltimore had a classic game in my opinion: they wore the opposing team down using a style that controlled time of possession. I turned to my friend Ryan at the half and pointed out the difference in number of plays and time of possession, then said that Baltimore would beat KC going away in the second half. They did, but they won't be as capable of doing that in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are more than capable of playing that style of ball as well.
Where are we going?: In all likelihood we are headed for yet another epic slug fest that makes you think back to the football games of yore. Very few games are as entertaining and riveting as Pittsburgh - Baltimore because of three main components: 1) both teams play football the way it is supposed to be played (running the ball, playing defense, hard hitting), 2) neither team likes each other at all, and 3) they have both been genuine Super Bowl contenders more times than not. Their game a few years back when Pittsburgh ended up winning the Super Bowl was the best game of the playoffs that year. These teams are like old, worn boxers at this point: both know each others flaws, both know when to counter punch, and it will likely come down to one play which swings it in the favor of one team. These teams split their season series this year, had identical regular season records, and we should probably feel fortunate we get to see round three again this year, just like in 2009.
The deciding factor: Who has the most play makers capable of making the aforementioned one big play needed to decide this game? This drill is pretty straight forward: Pittsburgh has three on defense (Woodley, Harrison and Polamalu) and another three on offense (Big Ben, Mendenhall, and Mike Wallace). Baltimore has two on defense (the aging quick Ray Lewis and aging quicker Ed Reed), and one on offense (Ray Rice). Simply put, Baltimore doesn't have as many players who are at any moment capable of turning this thing; Pittsburgh has a number of them. Finally, Big Ben is a winning QB in the post season: tough to bring down, capable of extending plays, with great field vision and a belief that he is going to win. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has a great deal of learning to do, and seems to shrink from the big moment.
The pick: Pittsburgh 24 - Baltimore 17 / Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore
8:00PM - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
What have we learned?: Green Bay, up two touchdowns in the first half at Philadelphia last week, let off the gas pedal. Accordingly they narrowly escaped after the Eagles gained traction. Beyond that, we saw yet again that Green Bay has a QB in Aaron Rodgers who can win games, and a defense which is capable of winning over the long haul. We also learned that Atlanta, beyond being beatable at home, can struggle at times when playing against a team who can control the pace of the game. Green Bay can do that, but they can't afford to not finish the Falcons off like they did last week.
Where are we going?: I'm hoping we are going towards the most epic NFC title game of my lifetime at least (Bears v Packers). In breaking this game down we can easily see that Atlanta has the advantage in terms of a balanced attack (courtesy of Michael Turner), but it isn't as if Atlanta is much more experienced in the playoffs than Green Bay under Rodgers. In fact, "Matty Ice" has an 0-1 record in the playoffs, while Aaron Rodgers is 1-1. The Packers defense seems to be a better, and a look at the statistics shows they were fifth in total yards allowed, and second in points allowed. Atlanta, on the other hand, was fifth in points allowed and sixteenth in yards allowed. The long and the short of it is that my brain tells me that Atlanta was by far the best team in the NFC this year, but recent common sense has told me that Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, and that Atlanta was shown for what it is a few weeks back on Monday night football by New Orleans.
The deciding factor: Rodgers or Ryan? Which QB do you think is more capable of winning a big game? This game feels very much like a situation where people aren't even giving Atlanta a chance to win this game. A home team, the number one seed in the conference being only a two point favorite? Vegas is basically saying that Green Bay is the better team, the favorite. That makes me nervous. But I'd take Rodgers in the aforementioned match up. That's the deciding factor for this game.
The pick: Green Bay 37 - Atlanta 27 / Green Bay (+2) over Atlanta
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10)
What have we learned?: My head is still spinning about Seattle beating New Orleans, but I suppose this validates the "any given Sunday" philosophy. For the second straight week the Seahawks enter play as a double digit underdog. Last week I said that the Seahawks didn't have anything to speak of, and then Marshawn Lynch went nuts, Matt Hasselbeck had an all-career game, and the defense did just enough. So what have we learned? That my terror about betting against a NFC West team which was awful for the season was well founded? I'm going to go with that. Again, this couldn't have come better on paper for my Bears, who just managed to draw a 7-9 team to Soldier Field for the second round of the playoffs. Looks great in theory.
Where are we going?: Towards an ulcer for me? Seattle beat Chicago once already this year, and they have the "nobody believed in us" momentum going strong in their favor. Lovie Smith is a pretty poor coach, but he seems to have the defense and special teams in a order based on the last few weeks of the regular season. The offense, on the other hand, relies on a shoddy offensive line which can't block, which leads to a quarter back who is jumpy at best, and a running game which struggles to gain traction. The Bears had the third worst offense in the NFL this year; only Carolina and Arizona totaled fewer yards. You can't feel good about that. But Seattle was so bad this year....
The deciding factor: If the Bears defense shows up I can't believe that Seattle will be able to score like they did last time. But let's be honest: the deciding factor here is that there is no way I can pick against the Bears, particularly when we are talking about freaking Seattle coming into Soldier Field. That doesn't mean I have to like it, and I think this line is way too high. That only leaves one option...
The pick: Chicago 24 - Seattle 21 / Seattle (+10) over Chicago
4:30PM - New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)
What have we learned?: Peyton Manning is 35, the Colts are beat up, and we may be seeing the great Peyton's transition in the the late Dan Marino phase of his career. That's why we have Pats v Jets: Manning just couldn't make the throws that he needed to last week, or that he would have in the past. Now we get the rubber match of two teams which couldn't be more different. The Jets are loud, brash, trash talking and high profiled, while the Patriots regained their rightful place as the low key, underrated, team of no names. Talk about polar opposites.
Where are we going?: This year these teams played two games: Jets 28 - Pats 14, and Pats 45 Jets 3. Week two the Pats were still forcing the ball to Randy Moss, and they got handled in the nice weather by Mark Sanchez. By week 13 the Pats were spreading the ball around and controlling the game, while the weather had gotten bad and Sanchez's play had gone into the toilet. Really, here's what I think you need to know:
Quarterback A: 3,291 yards, 54.8% completion percentage, 17 TD, 13 INT, 75.3 QB rating
Quarterback B: 3,193 yards, 54.6% completion percentage, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 QB rating
Quarterback A? Mark Sanchez this year. QB B? Rex Grossman in 2006, the year the Bears made the Super Bowl. Let's just say that Jets fans shouldn't be too excited about the Sanchise.
The deciding factor: Brady or Sanchez? I just can't see the Jets competing with the same New England team that I watched shred the Bears and the Jets.
The pick: New England 38 - New York 17 / New England (-9) over New York
Playoff record thus far against the spread: 3-1
Playoff record thus far straight up: 2-2
Combined playoff record thus far: 5-3
Saturday, January 8, 2011
The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2011, Part 1
And now, finally, it's here. My favorite time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and pretend that I can actually breakdown the matchups and games in the NFL playoffs with any degree of certainty. In the next week I need to determine where I will watch the Bears playoff game without jinxing them, but for this week all there is to do is throw my picks out there, explain the logic, and see if it sticks. As always, the dream of a perfect postseason picking NFL games haunts me, dating back to my 8-0 start in 1998's playoffs, which came to a crashing end by picking both Championship Games incorrectly.This year I am adding the spread as an additional amount of fun, with the lines taken from ESPN.com the day I wrote the post. Without further delay:
SATURDAY'S GAMES
4:30 PM - New Orleans Saints (-11) v Seattle Seahawks
Background: In the game that nobody in their right mind cares about, we find the defending Super Bowl Champions (thank you Tracy Porter), and the first team to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record. This game features a team that we know can win, in New Orleans, against a team that just proved it can't win half of its games. Accordingly, we also have the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history, with the Seahawks, your NFL West champions, being given eleven points at home. On paper there is no way that Seattle can compete in this game. Then again, I'm the same guy who said the same thing about the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals two years back, jumped on the well publicized "they are the worst playoff team ever" bandwagon, and then bet against them all throughout the NFC playoffs, watching them win every time. I may not be over this yet, but I also feel comfortable in saying that these Seahawks have ended the debate about the worst playoff team ever. They have the conch.
The Logic: New Orleans is the far better team. They can blitz, they can pass the ball all day long, and it's unlikely that the loud crowd at Qwest Field will shake them if Peyton Manning having the ball late in the Super Bowl didn't. That said, New Orleans just lost their top two running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas) for the rest of the year. That leaves them with scat back Reggie Bush and ... drum roll please ... Seahawks cast off Julius Jones. Seattle, on the other hand, has a washed up Matt Hasselbeck (or JC Superstar stand in Charlie Whitehurst) at QB, no real running game, no real passing game, and their only real advantage comes back to their loud crowd. On any given Sunday one team can beat another; we've seen that time and again. Think about a pretty poor NY Giants team getting hot, making it to the Super Bowl after upsetting Brett Favre at home, and then shocking the best football team of my lifetime (New England). The point? Anything can happen. I'm just not willing to bet it will this time. The spread makes it more interesting, because an 11 point spread basically means that if you pick the Saints they will need to win by two touchdowns or three scores (1 TD, 2 FG). This line is perfect for a backdoor cover by Seattle: down two touchdowns with two minutes left, Seattle drives the length of the field and scores a touchdown with no time left to lose the game but cover the spread. Still, it seems more likely to me that New Orleans will blow the Seahawks out than that Seattle will make it a game. The final bit of information? New Orleans 34 - Seattle 19: the score of the game earlier this year when these teams locked horns.
The Pick: New Orleans 31 - Seattle 17 / New Orleans (-11) over Seattle
8:00PM - New York Jets v Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Background: The Colts helped to let the Jets into the playoffs last year by laying down in Week 16, passing on the chance for a perfect season, and jinxing themselves for the rest of the year. The Jets came into Indy in the AFC title game, and played very tough for a half before Peyton Manning figured out how to crack their defense. This year the Jets were a trendy preseason pick, and while they did not meet the lofty regular season expectations, here they are again. The Colts underachieved as well, as Peyton proved to be human when dealing with a talent level comparable to his peers. Still, in the last few weeks we've seen the Jets defense look poor (against Chicago) and Indianapolis find ways to slide by. This is, bar none, the marquee matchup of the first round.
The Logic: Vegas believes these teams to be essentially equals, as they have given the Colts the customary home team spread of -3. The Jets are not running the ball as well as last year (Tomlinson instead of Thomas Jones doesn't look so great now), and Mark Sanchez was a pretty poor QB when you get down to the numbers. Revis has been injured most of the year, and the defense is having a hard time getting to the QB. On almost every level it is tough to see where the Jets are a real threat. On the flip side, the Colts have struggled to run the ball all year before the past four weeks. Manning has been much more turnover prone this year, a throw back to his early years, and their defense continues to have very little to brag about other than their defensive ends on pass rushing down. Earlier this year I mentioned that the Colts were like Michael Meyers: they aren't down until someone cuts their head off. This Jets team doesn't have the offense to hang with Manning, and it doesn't have the defense to contain Manning. I might be missing something (namely the fact that the Colts were 6-6 only four weeks ago), but I just can't see a Jets team that my Bears dealt with going into Indy, with their piped in crowd noise, and beating Manning. That said, this game may be close enough that I can see Manning, down six, driving down the field to win the game on the last drive. You know what that means? Split the difference.
The Pick: Indianapolis 24 - New York Jets 23 / NY Jets (+3) over Indianapolis
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Baltimore Ravens (-3) v Kansas City Chiefs
The Background: Kansas City pretty much handled the AFC West this year ... only they didn't handle the West itself, just the rest of their schedule. My preseason AFC West pick, Oakland, went 6-0 against the division, while KC went 2-4. That said, the Chiefs did go 7-1 at home (only losing in week 17 against Oakland, with the 3rd seed on the line), which means that the home field advantage at Arrowhead is still alive and well. Before his appendectomy Matt Cassel was doing great, throwing TDs and not throwing INTs. After his appendectomy, not so much. The Chiefs do have a great running game, led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a big play WR in Dywane Bowe. Baltimore, who has traditionally had a dominate defense, brought up the end of the top third this year, finishing tenth in total yards allowed, but they were 21st against the pass and fifth against the run. The moral of the story when KC has the ball is that Matt Cassel will have to play like he was through the mid part of the year for the team to win, because it is unlikely that Charles and Jones will be able to run through Baltimore's defense. On the flip side, Baltimore's offense ranked in the bottom third in the NFL, coming in 22nd in total offense, including 20th in passing offense and 14th in running offense. The Chiefs defense ranked 14th overall, including 17th against the pass and 14th against the run. The most mind numbing part of this exercise? San Diego finished the year first in the NFL in offensive yards and first overall in fewest yards allowed, yet they aren't in the playoffs. And still, Norv has a job. How?
The Logic: This game comes down to gut instinct, and at the end of the day I think that Baltimore is more than capable of winning this game, and I'm not sure Matt Cassel is capable of doing the same. Charlie Weis is leaving, which always makes for an awkward situation, and I did not like the way that KC ended the year, being throttled at home in an important game by Oakland. Baltimore, on the other hand, went into New England last year and won a game in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has the playoff reps, Cassel doesn't. I just don't see KC winning this game.
The Pick: Baltimore 23 - Kansas City 17 / Baltimore (-3) over Kansas City
4:30PM - Green Bay v Philadelphia (-3)
The Background: Michael Vick versus Aaron Rodgers on the one year anniversary of Kurt Warner versus Aaron Rodgers. Translation: who needs defense? That, on the surface, should be the story of this game. Philadelphia has not had a great defense this year, and Michael Vick appeared to be human again, reminding a number of us of his weakness as a QB in the past few weeks. The Eagles offense is dynamic, but if Vick is anything less than healthy he will have a hard time dealing with a much improved Packers defense. Additionally, Green Bay has the advantage of having played back to back playoff games in week 16 and 17, winning against both the Giants and then the Bears.
The Logic: Mike Vick is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is back from his concussion(s), and is the most dynamic QB in the league in terms of racking up yardage. The Packers don't have a running game, but that won't bite them in this game, as the Eagles don't like to use a running game anyway. This game, in the best case scenario, should be a shootout. But Green Bay is playing at a high level, while Philadelphia seems to have peaked a few weeks too early. This game, also, seems pretty simple: Green Bay is just the better team.
The Pick: Green Bay 38 - Philadelphia 31 / Green Bay (+3) over Philadelphia
So, to review, I'm taking New Orleans, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Green Bay. Three road teams, one home team. Additionally, I'm taking New Orleans -11, New York +3, Baltimore -3, and Green Bay +3, which amounts to two favorites and two dogs. And then next week we get the big boys: Pats, Steelers, Falcons and Bears. I love the playoffs.
SATURDAY'S GAMES
4:30 PM - New Orleans Saints (-11) v Seattle Seahawks
Background: In the game that nobody in their right mind cares about, we find the defending Super Bowl Champions (thank you Tracy Porter), and the first team to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record. This game features a team that we know can win, in New Orleans, against a team that just proved it can't win half of its games. Accordingly, we also have the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history, with the Seahawks, your NFL West champions, being given eleven points at home. On paper there is no way that Seattle can compete in this game. Then again, I'm the same guy who said the same thing about the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals two years back, jumped on the well publicized "they are the worst playoff team ever" bandwagon, and then bet against them all throughout the NFC playoffs, watching them win every time. I may not be over this yet, but I also feel comfortable in saying that these Seahawks have ended the debate about the worst playoff team ever. They have the conch.
The Logic: New Orleans is the far better team. They can blitz, they can pass the ball all day long, and it's unlikely that the loud crowd at Qwest Field will shake them if Peyton Manning having the ball late in the Super Bowl didn't. That said, New Orleans just lost their top two running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas) for the rest of the year. That leaves them with scat back Reggie Bush and ... drum roll please ... Seahawks cast off Julius Jones. Seattle, on the other hand, has a washed up Matt Hasselbeck (or JC Superstar stand in Charlie Whitehurst) at QB, no real running game, no real passing game, and their only real advantage comes back to their loud crowd. On any given Sunday one team can beat another; we've seen that time and again. Think about a pretty poor NY Giants team getting hot, making it to the Super Bowl after upsetting Brett Favre at home, and then shocking the best football team of my lifetime (New England). The point? Anything can happen. I'm just not willing to bet it will this time. The spread makes it more interesting, because an 11 point spread basically means that if you pick the Saints they will need to win by two touchdowns or three scores (1 TD, 2 FG). This line is perfect for a backdoor cover by Seattle: down two touchdowns with two minutes left, Seattle drives the length of the field and scores a touchdown with no time left to lose the game but cover the spread. Still, it seems more likely to me that New Orleans will blow the Seahawks out than that Seattle will make it a game. The final bit of information? New Orleans 34 - Seattle 19: the score of the game earlier this year when these teams locked horns.
The Pick: New Orleans 31 - Seattle 17 / New Orleans (-11) over Seattle
8:00PM - New York Jets v Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Background: The Colts helped to let the Jets into the playoffs last year by laying down in Week 16, passing on the chance for a perfect season, and jinxing themselves for the rest of the year. The Jets came into Indy in the AFC title game, and played very tough for a half before Peyton Manning figured out how to crack their defense. This year the Jets were a trendy preseason pick, and while they did not meet the lofty regular season expectations, here they are again. The Colts underachieved as well, as Peyton proved to be human when dealing with a talent level comparable to his peers. Still, in the last few weeks we've seen the Jets defense look poor (against Chicago) and Indianapolis find ways to slide by. This is, bar none, the marquee matchup of the first round.
The Logic: Vegas believes these teams to be essentially equals, as they have given the Colts the customary home team spread of -3. The Jets are not running the ball as well as last year (Tomlinson instead of Thomas Jones doesn't look so great now), and Mark Sanchez was a pretty poor QB when you get down to the numbers. Revis has been injured most of the year, and the defense is having a hard time getting to the QB. On almost every level it is tough to see where the Jets are a real threat. On the flip side, the Colts have struggled to run the ball all year before the past four weeks. Manning has been much more turnover prone this year, a throw back to his early years, and their defense continues to have very little to brag about other than their defensive ends on pass rushing down. Earlier this year I mentioned that the Colts were like Michael Meyers: they aren't down until someone cuts their head off. This Jets team doesn't have the offense to hang with Manning, and it doesn't have the defense to contain Manning. I might be missing something (namely the fact that the Colts were 6-6 only four weeks ago), but I just can't see a Jets team that my Bears dealt with going into Indy, with their piped in crowd noise, and beating Manning. That said, this game may be close enough that I can see Manning, down six, driving down the field to win the game on the last drive. You know what that means? Split the difference.
The Pick: Indianapolis 24 - New York Jets 23 / NY Jets (+3) over Indianapolis
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Baltimore Ravens (-3) v Kansas City Chiefs
The Background: Kansas City pretty much handled the AFC West this year ... only they didn't handle the West itself, just the rest of their schedule. My preseason AFC West pick, Oakland, went 6-0 against the division, while KC went 2-4. That said, the Chiefs did go 7-1 at home (only losing in week 17 against Oakland, with the 3rd seed on the line), which means that the home field advantage at Arrowhead is still alive and well. Before his appendectomy Matt Cassel was doing great, throwing TDs and not throwing INTs. After his appendectomy, not so much. The Chiefs do have a great running game, led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a big play WR in Dywane Bowe. Baltimore, who has traditionally had a dominate defense, brought up the end of the top third this year, finishing tenth in total yards allowed, but they were 21st against the pass and fifth against the run. The moral of the story when KC has the ball is that Matt Cassel will have to play like he was through the mid part of the year for the team to win, because it is unlikely that Charles and Jones will be able to run through Baltimore's defense. On the flip side, Baltimore's offense ranked in the bottom third in the NFL, coming in 22nd in total offense, including 20th in passing offense and 14th in running offense. The Chiefs defense ranked 14th overall, including 17th against the pass and 14th against the run. The most mind numbing part of this exercise? San Diego finished the year first in the NFL in offensive yards and first overall in fewest yards allowed, yet they aren't in the playoffs. And still, Norv has a job. How?
The Logic: This game comes down to gut instinct, and at the end of the day I think that Baltimore is more than capable of winning this game, and I'm not sure Matt Cassel is capable of doing the same. Charlie Weis is leaving, which always makes for an awkward situation, and I did not like the way that KC ended the year, being throttled at home in an important game by Oakland. Baltimore, on the other hand, went into New England last year and won a game in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has the playoff reps, Cassel doesn't. I just don't see KC winning this game.
The Pick: Baltimore 23 - Kansas City 17 / Baltimore (-3) over Kansas City
4:30PM - Green Bay v Philadelphia (-3)
The Background: Michael Vick versus Aaron Rodgers on the one year anniversary of Kurt Warner versus Aaron Rodgers. Translation: who needs defense? That, on the surface, should be the story of this game. Philadelphia has not had a great defense this year, and Michael Vick appeared to be human again, reminding a number of us of his weakness as a QB in the past few weeks. The Eagles offense is dynamic, but if Vick is anything less than healthy he will have a hard time dealing with a much improved Packers defense. Additionally, Green Bay has the advantage of having played back to back playoff games in week 16 and 17, winning against both the Giants and then the Bears.
The Logic: Mike Vick is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is back from his concussion(s), and is the most dynamic QB in the league in terms of racking up yardage. The Packers don't have a running game, but that won't bite them in this game, as the Eagles don't like to use a running game anyway. This game, in the best case scenario, should be a shootout. But Green Bay is playing at a high level, while Philadelphia seems to have peaked a few weeks too early. This game, also, seems pretty simple: Green Bay is just the better team.
The Pick: Green Bay 38 - Philadelphia 31 / Green Bay (+3) over Philadelphia
So, to review, I'm taking New Orleans, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Green Bay. Three road teams, one home team. Additionally, I'm taking New Orleans -11, New York +3, Baltimore -3, and Green Bay +3, which amounts to two favorites and two dogs. And then next week we get the big boys: Pats, Steelers, Falcons and Bears. I love the playoffs.
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