The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2011, Part 1

And now, finally, it's here. My favorite time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and pretend that I can actually breakdown the matchups and games in the NFL playoffs with any degree of certainty. In the next week I need to determine where I will watch the Bears playoff game without jinxing them, but for this week all there is to do is throw my picks out there, explain the logic, and see if it sticks. As always, the dream of a perfect postseason picking NFL games haunts me, dating back to my 8-0 start in 1998's playoffs, which came to a crashing end by picking both Championship Games incorrectly.This year I am adding the spread as an additional amount of fun, with the lines taken from ESPN.com the day I wrote the post. Without further delay:

SATURDAY'S GAMES

4:30 PM - New Orleans Saints (-11) v Seattle Seahawks

Background: In the game that nobody in their right mind cares about, we find the defending Super Bowl Champions (thank you Tracy Porter), and the first team to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record. This game features a team that we know can win, in New Orleans, against a team that just proved it can't win half of its games. Accordingly, we also have the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history, with the Seahawks, your NFL West champions, being given eleven points at home. On paper there is no way that Seattle can compete in this game. Then again, I'm the same guy who said the same thing about the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals two years back, jumped on the well publicized "they are the worst playoff team ever" bandwagon, and then bet against them all throughout the NFC playoffs, watching them win every time. I may not be over this yet, but I also feel comfortable in saying that these Seahawks have ended the debate about the worst playoff team ever. They have the conch.

The Logic: New Orleans is the far better team. They can blitz, they can pass the ball all day long, and it's unlikely that the loud crowd at Qwest Field will shake them if Peyton Manning having the ball late in the Super Bowl didn't. That said, New Orleans just lost their top two running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas) for the rest of the year. That leaves them with scat back Reggie Bush and ... drum roll please ... Seahawks cast off Julius Jones. Seattle, on the other hand, has a washed up Matt Hasselbeck (or JC Superstar stand in Charlie Whitehurst) at QB, no real running game, no real passing game, and their only real advantage comes back to their loud crowd. On any given Sunday one team can beat another; we've seen that time and again. Think about a pretty poor NY Giants team getting hot, making it to the Super Bowl after upsetting Brett Favre at home, and then shocking the best football team of my lifetime (New England). The point? Anything can happen. I'm just not willing to bet it will this time. The spread makes it more interesting, because an 11 point spread basically means that if you pick the Saints they will need to win by two touchdowns or three scores (1 TD, 2 FG). This line is perfect for a backdoor cover by Seattle: down two touchdowns with two minutes left, Seattle drives the length of the field and scores a touchdown with no time left to lose the game but cover the spread. Still, it seems more likely to me that New Orleans will blow the Seahawks out than that Seattle will make it a game. The final bit of information? New Orleans 34 - Seattle 19: the score of the game earlier this year when these teams locked horns.

The Pick: New Orleans 31 - Seattle 17 / New Orleans (-11) over Seattle


8:00PM - New York Jets v Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Background: The Colts helped to let the Jets into the playoffs last year by laying down in Week 16, passing on the chance for a perfect season, and jinxing themselves for the rest of the year. The Jets came into Indy in the AFC title game, and played very tough for a half before Peyton Manning figured out how to crack their defense. This year the Jets were a trendy preseason pick, and while they did not meet the lofty regular season expectations, here they are again. The Colts underachieved as well, as Peyton proved to be human when dealing with a talent level comparable to his peers. Still, in the last few weeks we've seen the Jets defense look poor (against Chicago) and Indianapolis find ways to slide by. This is, bar none, the marquee matchup of the first round.


The Logic: Vegas believes these teams to be essentially equals, as they have given the Colts the customary home team spread of -3. The Jets are not running the ball as well as last year (Tomlinson instead of Thomas Jones doesn't look so great now), and Mark Sanchez was a pretty poor QB when you get down to the numbers. Revis has been injured most of the year, and the defense is having a hard time getting to the QB. On almost every level it is tough to see where the Jets are a real threat. On the flip side, the Colts have struggled to run the ball all year before the past four weeks. Manning has been much more turnover prone this year, a throw back to his early years, and their defense continues to have very little to brag about other than their defensive ends on pass rushing down. Earlier this year I mentioned that the Colts were like Michael Meyers: they aren't down until someone cuts their head off. This Jets team doesn't have the offense to hang with Manning, and it doesn't have the defense to contain Manning. I might be missing something (namely the fact that the Colts were 6-6 only four weeks ago), but I just can't see a Jets team that my Bears dealt with going into Indy, with their piped in crowd noise, and beating Manning. That said, this game may be close enough that I can see Manning, down six, driving down the field to win the game on the last drive. You know what that means? Split the difference.

The Pick: Indianapolis 24 - New York Jets 23 / NY Jets (+3) over Indianapolis


SUNDAY'S GAMES

1:00PM - Baltimore Ravens (-3) v Kansas City Chiefs

The Background: Kansas City pretty much handled the AFC West this year ... only they didn't handle the West itself, just the rest of their schedule. My preseason AFC West pick, Oakland, went 6-0 against the division, while KC went 2-4. That said, the Chiefs did go 7-1 at home (only losing in week 17 against Oakland, with the 3rd seed on the line), which means that the home field advantage at Arrowhead is still alive and well. Before his appendectomy Matt Cassel was doing great, throwing TDs and not throwing INTs. After his appendectomy, not so much. The Chiefs do have a great running game, led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a big play WR in Dywane Bowe. Baltimore, who has traditionally had a dominate defense, brought up the end of the top third this year, finishing tenth in total yards allowed, but they were 21st against the pass and fifth against the run. The moral of the story when KC has the ball is that Matt Cassel will have to play like he was through the mid part of the year for the team to win, because it is unlikely that Charles and Jones will be able to run through Baltimore's defense. On the flip side, Baltimore's offense ranked in the bottom third in the NFL, coming in 22nd in total offense, including 20th in passing offense and 14th in running offense. The Chiefs defense ranked 14th overall, including 17th against the pass and 14th against the run. The most mind numbing part of this exercise? San Diego finished the year first in the NFL in offensive yards and first overall in fewest yards allowed, yet they aren't in the playoffs. And still, Norv has a job. How?

The Logic: This game comes down to gut instinct, and at the end of the day I think that Baltimore is more than capable of winning this game, and I'm not sure Matt Cassel is capable of doing the same. Charlie Weis is leaving, which always makes for an awkward situation, and I did not like the way that KC ended the year, being throttled at home in an important game by Oakland. Baltimore, on the other hand, went into New England last year and won a game in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has the playoff reps, Cassel doesn't. I just don't see KC winning this game.

The Pick: Baltimore 23 - Kansas City 17 / Baltimore (-3) over Kansas City

4:30PM - Green Bay v Philadelphia (-3)

The Background: Michael Vick versus Aaron Rodgers on the one year anniversary of Kurt Warner versus Aaron Rodgers. Translation: who needs defense? That, on the surface, should be the story of this game. Philadelphia has not had a great defense this year, and Michael Vick appeared to be human again, reminding a number of us of his weakness as a QB in the past few weeks. The Eagles offense is dynamic, but if Vick is anything less than healthy he will have a hard time dealing with a much improved Packers defense. Additionally, Green Bay has the advantage of having played back to back playoff games in week 16 and 17, winning against both the Giants and then the Bears.

The Logic: Mike Vick is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is back from his concussion(s), and is the most dynamic QB in the league in terms of racking up yardage. The Packers don't have a running game, but that won't bite them in this game, as the Eagles don't like to use a running game anyway. This game, in the best case scenario, should be a shootout. But Green Bay is playing at a high level, while Philadelphia seems to have peaked a few weeks too early. This game, also, seems pretty simple: Green Bay is just the better team.

The Pick: Green Bay 38 - Philadelphia 31 / Green Bay (+3) over Philadelphia


So, to review, I'm taking New Orleans, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Green Bay. Three road teams, one home team. Additionally, I'm taking New Orleans -11, New York +3, Baltimore -3, and Green Bay +3, which amounts to two favorites and two dogs. And then next week we get the big boys: Pats, Steelers, Falcons and Bears. I love the playoffs.