The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2011, Part 2

And then there were eight. The New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts have already had their dreams crushed. Some in shocking ways (the Saints being handled by 7-9 Seattle), some having their heart broken (hello Peyton) and two games that really weren't that engaging (Philly had peaked and KC was not very exciting as a team).

On the whole I went 3-1 against the spread, and 2-2 straight up. So what have we learned, where are we going, and what's the deciding factor going to be in round two of the NFL playoffs?

SATURDAY GAMES

4:30 PM - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

What have we learned?: Baltimore was aptly described by Mike Lombardi as being an offense that tries to do too many things, like a restaurant that tries to serve too many dishes, without doing any of them well. Last week we saw that up close and personal, as any time Baltimore tried to do something on offense that didn't involve the words "Ray" and "Rice" it did not look all that pleasant. That said, Baltimore had a classic game in my opinion: they wore the opposing team down using a style that controlled time of possession. I turned to my friend Ryan at the half and pointed out the difference in number of plays and time of possession, then said that Baltimore would beat KC going away in the second half. They did, but they won't be as capable of doing that in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are more than capable of playing that style of ball as well.

Where are we going?: In all likelihood we are headed for yet another epic slug fest that makes you think back to the football games of yore. Very few games are as entertaining and riveting as Pittsburgh - Baltimore because of three main components: 1) both teams play football the way it is supposed to be played (running the ball, playing defense, hard hitting), 2) neither team likes each other at all, and 3) they have both been genuine Super Bowl contenders more times than not. Their game a few years back when Pittsburgh ended up winning the Super Bowl was the best game of the playoffs that year. These teams are like old, worn boxers at this point: both know each others flaws, both know when to counter punch, and it will likely come down to one play which swings it in the favor of one team. These teams split their season series this year, had identical regular season records, and we should probably feel fortunate we get to see round three again this year, just like in 2009.

The deciding factor: Who has the most play makers capable of making the aforementioned one big play needed to decide this game? This drill is pretty straight forward: Pittsburgh has three on defense (Woodley, Harrison and Polamalu) and another three on offense (Big Ben, Mendenhall, and Mike Wallace). Baltimore has two on defense (the aging quick Ray Lewis and aging quicker Ed Reed), and one on offense (Ray Rice). Simply put, Baltimore doesn't have as many players who are at any moment capable of turning this thing; Pittsburgh has a number of them. Finally, Big Ben is a winning QB in the post season: tough to bring down, capable of extending plays, with great field vision and a belief that he is going to win. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has a great deal of learning to do, and seems to shrink from the big moment.

The pick: Pittsburgh 24 - Baltimore 17 / Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore


8:00PM - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

What have we learned?: Green Bay, up two touchdowns in the first half at Philadelphia last week, let off the gas pedal. Accordingly they narrowly escaped after the Eagles gained traction. Beyond that, we saw yet again that Green Bay has a QB in Aaron Rodgers who can win games, and a defense which is capable of winning over the long haul. We also learned that Atlanta, beyond being beatable at home, can struggle at times when playing against a team who can control the pace of the game. Green Bay can do that, but they can't afford to not finish the Falcons off like they did last week.

Where are we going?: I'm hoping we are going towards the most epic NFC title game of my lifetime at least (Bears v Packers). In breaking this game down we can easily see that Atlanta has the advantage in terms of a balanced attack (courtesy of Michael Turner), but it isn't as if Atlanta is much more experienced in the playoffs than Green Bay under Rodgers. In fact, "Matty Ice" has an 0-1 record in the playoffs, while Aaron Rodgers is 1-1. The Packers defense seems to be a better, and a look at the statistics shows they were fifth in total yards allowed, and second in points allowed. Atlanta, on the other hand, was fifth in points allowed and sixteenth in yards allowed. The long and the short of it is that my brain tells me that Atlanta was by far the best team in the NFC this year, but recent common sense has told me that Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, and that Atlanta was shown for what it is a few weeks back on Monday night football by New Orleans.

The deciding factor: Rodgers or Ryan? Which QB do you think is more capable of winning a big game? This game feels very much like a situation where people aren't even giving Atlanta a chance to win this game. A home team, the number one seed in the conference being only a two point favorite? Vegas is basically saying that Green Bay is the better team, the favorite. That makes me nervous. But I'd take Rodgers in the aforementioned match up. That's the deciding factor for this game.

The pick: Green Bay 37 - Atlanta 27 / Green Bay (+2) over Atlanta



SUNDAY'S GAMES

1:00PM - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10)

What have we learned?: My head is still spinning about Seattle beating New Orleans, but I suppose this validates the "any given Sunday" philosophy. For the second straight week the Seahawks enter play as a double digit underdog. Last week I said that the Seahawks didn't have anything to speak of, and then Marshawn Lynch went nuts, Matt Hasselbeck had an all-career game, and the defense did just enough. So what have we learned? That my terror about betting against a NFC West team which was awful for the season was well founded? I'm going to go with that. Again, this couldn't have come better on paper for my Bears, who just managed to draw a 7-9 team to Soldier Field for the second round of the playoffs. Looks great in theory.

Where are we going?: Towards an ulcer for me? Seattle beat Chicago once already this year, and they have the "nobody believed in us" momentum going strong in their favor. Lovie Smith is a pretty poor coach, but he seems to have the defense and special teams in a order based on the last few weeks of the regular season. The offense, on the other hand, relies on a shoddy offensive line which can't block, which leads to a quarter back who is jumpy at best, and a running game which struggles to gain traction. The Bears had the third worst offense in the NFL this year; only Carolina and Arizona totaled fewer yards. You can't feel good about that. But Seattle was so bad this year....

The deciding factor: If the Bears defense shows up I can't believe that Seattle will be able to score like they did last time. But let's be honest: the deciding factor here is that there is no way I can pick against the Bears, particularly when we are talking about freaking Seattle coming into Soldier Field. That doesn't mean I have to like it, and I think this line is way too high. That only leaves one option...

The pick: Chicago 24 - Seattle 21 / Seattle (+10) over Chicago


4:30PM - New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)

What have we learned?: Peyton Manning is 35, the Colts are beat up, and we may be seeing the great Peyton's transition in the the late Dan Marino phase of his career. That's why we have Pats v Jets: Manning just couldn't make the throws that he needed to last week, or that he would have in the past. Now we get the rubber match of two teams which couldn't be more different. The Jets are loud, brash, trash talking and high profiled, while the Patriots regained their rightful place as the low key, underrated, team of no names. Talk about polar opposites.

Where are we going?: This year these teams played two games: Jets 28 - Pats 14, and Pats 45 Jets 3. Week two the Pats were still forcing the ball to Randy Moss, and they got handled in the nice weather by Mark Sanchez. By week 13 the Pats were spreading the ball around and controlling the game, while the weather had gotten bad and Sanchez's play had gone into the toilet. Really, here's what I think you need to know:

Quarterback A: 3,291 yards, 54.8% completion percentage, 17 TD, 13 INT, 75.3 QB rating
Quarterback B: 3,193 yards, 54.6% completion percentage, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 QB rating

Quarterback A? Mark Sanchez this year. QB B? Rex Grossman in 2006, the year the Bears made the Super Bowl. Let's just say that Jets fans shouldn't be too excited about the Sanchise.

The deciding factor: Brady or Sanchez? I just can't see the Jets competing with the same New England team that I watched shred the Bears and the Jets.

The pick: New England 38 - New York 17 / New England (-9) over New York


Playoff record thus far against the spread: 3-1
Playoff record thus far straight up: 2-2
Combined playoff record thus far: 5-3