Wow! It's been nearly two months (two months tomorrow, in fact) since I posted here. Let's just say that I've been really busy, and life has gotten in the way. But let's also say that I'll try to do better. We are at the half way point of the NFL season, so it seems like a good time to see how absolutely awful my preseason NFL picks were. So what we'll do is look at my predictions for how the divisions would finish on September 1st, and then see where they are today. Then I'll do some revisionist history, and tell you where I went wrong, and how I see it playing out now. Also, just a reminder that it's not good to make outlandish statements after one week of the NFL season, particularly when you only get to watch a game or two. Without any further ado, here we go:
AFC EAST:
Then: New England (13-3), Miami (9-7), Buffalo (8-8), NY Jets (6-10)
Now: New England (6-2), NY Jets (4-4), Miami (3-5), Buffalo (3-5)
Comments: Not a bad start for me, as New England clearly seems to be the class of the division, and I could easily see Miami finishing second in this division. I wrote back in September that if the Jets were lucky they'd get a Mirer level rookie year from Sanchez, and that seems to be about right. I was wrong about Buffalo, and if nothing else has been driven into my soul about the NFL this year it is this: if you don't have an offensive line, your team is going to suck. Somehow Buffalo is still 3-5, but they are really kind of bad. Thus far I'll take this division as a win.
NEW PREDICTION: New England (12-4), Miami (8-8), NY Jets (7-9) Buffalo (5-11)
AFC North:
Then: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (11-5), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (5-11)
Now: Pittsburgh (6-2), Cincinnati (6-2), Baltimore (4-4), Cleveland (1-7)
Comments: Ok, so I cheated and put Pittsburgh in 1st place now, even though Cincinnati actually beat them and is in first. But Pittsburgh is going to win this weekend, and that will be that, so they will be in first place. I promise. Beyond that, this division doesn't look too far off. Baltimore's defense got really old overnight, and I wasn't thinking that would happen, so that explains my being off there a bit. I wrote of Cincinnati at the time that "(t)he Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner." That's great analysis if you ask me. By the way, it just so happens that Palmer is healthy, Ocho isn't finished, and Ced Benson is still a punk ... but an extremely talented punk who actually can run the ball. They still have an incompetent owner, but the pieces have begun to gel together. Still, after Pittsburgh beats them this week (come on Steelers!) they will be relegated to Wild Card status. Which is still impressive. Baltimore might be able to make a bit of a run, but they won't be contenders like they were last year. Cleveland? Turns out I thought they were way too good by estimating five wins, or that Mangini was even mediocre. They are really bad; so bad that when the Bears beat them 30-6 nobody was excited because they knew it should have been sixty to six.
NEW PREDICTION: Pittsburgh (12-4), Cincinnati (10-6), Baltimore (9-7), Cleveland (2-14)
AFC SOUTH:
Then: Indianapolis (10-6), Houston (9-7), Tennessee (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8)
Now: Indianapolis (8-0), Houston (5-4), Jacksonville (4-4), Tennessee (2-6)
Comments: Boy did I almost nail this one right on the head. In fact, after Indy fades in the 2nd half (which I think is almost assuredly going to happen due to their injuries) it will make it look even better. My logic was around the table sound, and I could see the Titans going on a 9-1 or 8-2 run from their 0-6 start, making 9-7 a distinct possibility. If Houston could have taken advantage of Indy trying to hand them that game last week then I would have been on cloud 9 here. Still, let's say Indy continues to win games they shouldn't ... this will play out like this:
NEW PREDICTION: Indianapolis (13-3)*, Houston (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8), Tennessee (7-9)
*Let's just say that if I was a gambling man I'd be foaming at the mouth thinking about betting against Indianapolis in the playoffs this year. Their entire D is banged up, they have no running game, and a ton of inexperience in the passing game. And I'll admit it: Peyton Manning has jumped into the pantheon level of QBs, and he is good enough to carry a team. But this team is really bad other than him, Freeney, Wayne and Clark. And four top players isn't enough in the NFL.
AFC West:
Then: San Diego (11-5), Kansas City (7-9), Denver (7-9), Oakland (5-11)
Now: Denver (6-2), San Diego (5-3), Oakland (2-6), Kansas City (1-7)
Comments: Here is my first big "swing and a miss," at least at first glance. The AFC West has taught me a number of things. First, having talent around you and competent people coaching you is more important that being a great QB. For exhibit A, look at Kyle Orton. For exhibit B, look at Matt Cassel. I had both KC and Denver at 7-9 based on their QB for the most part. Cassell looked like the better bet heading into the year, even as I was saying that "Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver." But KC has almost no talent around Cassel, and Denver is loaded with talent on offense. My huge miss on KC aside, I was pretty close, and think it'll shake out this way:
NEW PREDICTION: San Diego (11-5), Denver (10-6), KC (3-13), Oakland (3-13)
NFC East:
Then: Philadelphia (12-4), NY Giants (10-6), Dallas (8-8), Washington (6-10)
Now: Dallas (6-2), Philadelphia (5-3), NY Giants (5-4), Washington (2-6)
Comments: I totally underestimated how much of an improvement jettisoning T.O. would make. Romo looks free, Miles Austin came out of semi-nowhere to become the next big thing, and they managed to play coaching Russian Roulette with Wade Phillips and Andy Reid and watched Andy be the one who wet himself first. The Giants are who I thought they were, so that's nice at least. Honestly, the Eagles aren't far behind what I thought they were, so that's not too bad. Washington is even worse. The question comes down to this: do I think Dallas will choke now, or in the playoffs? Umm....
NEW PREDICTION: Dallas (11-5), Philadelphia (11-5), NY Giants (10-6), Washington (3-13)
NFC North:
Then: Chicago (13-3), Green Bay (11-5), Minnesota (9-7), Detroit (3-13)
Now: **sigh** Minnesota (7-1), Green Bay (4-4), The 2nd Greatest Franchise In NFL History Who Can't Seem To Have The Fortitutde To Fire The Entire Worthless Management Staff (4-5), Detroit (1-7)
Comments: The sports Gods hate me. I'll write an entire post about the stupid Bears sometime soon. Other than that, all that is relevant is to say that I underestimated how much having a competent QB would improve the Vikqueens.
NEW PREDICTION: Minnesota (12-4), Green Bay (8-8), Lovie's Catatonic Corpse (6-10), Detroit (3-13)
NFC South:
Then: New Orleans (11-5), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (8-8), Tampa Bay (5-11)
Now: New Orleans (8-0), Atlanta (5-3), Carolina (3-5), Tampa Bay (1-7)
Comments: Boy, that looks pretty good, doesn't it? My logic seems to have been sound, and so there really isn't too much to say, except that the Saints look even better than I thought they would be. I had the Falcons missing the Wild Card back in early September back when I thought that the NFC North was going to give Brett Favre a fight; now that it's apparent nobody wants to get in the way of his comeback tour ... let's just say I have second thoughts.
NEW PREDICTION: New Orleans (14-2), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (7-9), Tampa Bay (3-13)
NFC West:
Then: San Fransisco (9-7), Seattle (7-9), Arizona (7-9), St. Louis (5-11)
Now: Arizona (5-3), San Fransisco (4-5), Seattle (3-5), St. Louis (1-7)
Comments: The Cards have shown more resilience than I expected, but the division is just as boring as I envisioned. Congrats to Mike Singletary on the ugliest win I've ever heard of last night. That's all.
NEW PREDICTION: Arizona (9-7), San Fransisco (8-8), Seattle (7-9), St. Louis (2-14)
As for the playoffs, I had the following teams in at that time, in order from top seed to bottom seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York
If I had to redo that now it would look like this:
AFC: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver
NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, Atlanta
Rather than do match-ups, let's just say that I feel strongly that Indy would lose to New England, Pittsburgh for sure, San Diego probably, and Cincinnati possibly. They will most likely be the top seed, but I don't see it working out for them. I'm still saying the AFC champs will be the Pats, with the runner up being Pittsburgh. If it plays out with the seeds I've predicted here, the winner of the round two game with New England hosting Pittsburgh will be your AFC champion.
As for the NFC, it appears to go through a dome or a warm weather city. Talk about taking a step towards flag football. That said, it's got to be either New Orleans or Minnesota, and right now my pick would be New Orleans; barring an injury to Brees they seem to be unstoppable. So, at the midway point, my prediction would be:
NEW ENGLAND 38 - NEW ORLEANS 35
The exciting thing? We get to see Pats-Colts this weekend (I'll take the Pats +3), and the Pats-Saints in a few weeks. Even with the Bears failing to show up this year, it's still got potential to be a great NFL season.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
NFL - Opening Weekend Quick Hits
Boy it didn't take long to make my Super Bowl prediction look highly unlikely did it? ...
- With today's news that MLB Brian Urlacher will miss the rest of the season after dislocating his wrist, as well as with the other injuries suffered by our defense (most notably Pisa Tinoisamoa), it's hard to see things ending nearly as well as they could have this year. The team was up to all of the typical Lovie brain farts: faking a punt on 4th and 11 deep in their own territory (which, all things considered, might be the defining dumb moment of Lovie's tenure), calling for a screen pass inside the ten yard line, challenging your own stupid call on the fake punt (which wasted another time out)... the list goes on and on.
The single most infuriating thing about the game was watching Lovie once again sit there like Forrest Gump, seemingly not even caring that his season was going up in flames all around him. He stood there, watching Culter pretend to be Rex Grossman, watching his receivers not finish running their routes, watching his long snapper call for a fake punt audible ... he stood there and didn't even move. I don't need him to throw a chair onto the field or choke a player. I understand that the new thing for coaches to do is just observe. But even Phil Jackson, the Zen Master, would have been yelling and tearing his team a new one.
Someone has to hold people accountable. Someone needs to tell Jay Cutler "listen son, you're my quarterback, but you've got to stop forcing those throws." Someone needed to tell Desmond Clark "if you stop mid-route again you're done for the day." Someone needed to tell Greg Olsen "stop being scared of being hit and catch the ball." The only person who looked upset yesterday was Virginia McCaskey, and she's gotta be in her 80s. An even halfway decent coach would have done something, but not Lovie. He stood there, like a bump on a log, and watched an extremely important game go up in flames.
- To be clear, no the season is not over. It never is after one game. But the injuries to the defense are going to make it tough for us to get the job done. Lovie and Ron Turner seem to be in love with the idea of tossing the ball down the field, which is not good news for the defense either. Our front four did a great job of getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers, but our secondary looked like toast. Now we have to go without the one person who makes all the defensive calls. The other one, Mike Brown, is no longer there, so Urlacher was it.
Furthermore, with the love for passing down field we are on the verge of forgetting the running game. I've seen this before, back when Rex Grossman was the new hit in Chicago, and we just started airing it out left and right. It lost us a Super Bowl.
- In the other games, the Colts struggled to beat a bad Jacksonville team, which didn't surprise me too much. The Bengals and the Broncos both looked awful on offense, another non-surprise. In both of these instances the common logic prevailed. Indianapolis is going to struggle because they don't have a second wide receiver to complement Reggie Wayne. Anthony Gonzalez is out two to six weeks now, but he lost Peyton's all important "trust" this preseason by dropping too many balls. The Indy defense looked good, but you have to remember that they were going against two rookie tackles making their first starts. Against any team with a pulse Indy would have lost yesterday, but that is the difference between the good teams and the bad: the good teams find a way to win.
In Cincinnati, however, we were seeing two very bad teams go against one another. Kyle Orton looked every bit as weak armed as I remembered him being, and Carson Palmer looked washed up on the other sideline. That this game would end on such a fluke play (click here if you didn't see it) was pretty fitting. Let's just say that I'm fairly confident both of these teams will be closer to ten losses than ten wins.
- San Francisco began its march to the NFC west crown by defeating last year's NFC champs, and doing so in the ugly manner you would expect from a Mike Singletary team. I loved this hire for San Francisco; you go from a number of coaches who just couldn't connect with the players to one who was one of the best ever, and who's intensity can never be questioned. Singletary will get a ton out of this team even though there isn't a whole lot of talent there. It's amazing what a good coach can do.
- From Arizona's perspective, however, the Super Bowl curse is already showing its effects. Warner looked a bit slower than last year, the ground game still struggled, and they just couldn't come up with the big plays they did last year. Let's not forget that Arizona was only 9-7 last year (the same record the Bears had), and just happened to play in a weak division, then get hot at the right time. Arizona also will be closer to ten losses than to ten wins this year.
- It's far too early to revise my predictions; I'd like to wait until at least the quarter mark, if not mid season to do that. But let's just say that I'll be hoping that New England blows the Bills out tonight. It'd be nice to have one pick look even remotely possible after week one.
- With today's news that MLB Brian Urlacher will miss the rest of the season after dislocating his wrist, as well as with the other injuries suffered by our defense (most notably Pisa Tinoisamoa), it's hard to see things ending nearly as well as they could have this year. The team was up to all of the typical Lovie brain farts: faking a punt on 4th and 11 deep in their own territory (which, all things considered, might be the defining dumb moment of Lovie's tenure), calling for a screen pass inside the ten yard line, challenging your own stupid call on the fake punt (which wasted another time out)... the list goes on and on.
The single most infuriating thing about the game was watching Lovie once again sit there like Forrest Gump, seemingly not even caring that his season was going up in flames all around him. He stood there, watching Culter pretend to be Rex Grossman, watching his receivers not finish running their routes, watching his long snapper call for a fake punt audible ... he stood there and didn't even move. I don't need him to throw a chair onto the field or choke a player. I understand that the new thing for coaches to do is just observe. But even Phil Jackson, the Zen Master, would have been yelling and tearing his team a new one.
Someone has to hold people accountable. Someone needs to tell Jay Cutler "listen son, you're my quarterback, but you've got to stop forcing those throws." Someone needed to tell Desmond Clark "if you stop mid-route again you're done for the day." Someone needed to tell Greg Olsen "stop being scared of being hit and catch the ball." The only person who looked upset yesterday was Virginia McCaskey, and she's gotta be in her 80s. An even halfway decent coach would have done something, but not Lovie. He stood there, like a bump on a log, and watched an extremely important game go up in flames.
- To be clear, no the season is not over. It never is after one game. But the injuries to the defense are going to make it tough for us to get the job done. Lovie and Ron Turner seem to be in love with the idea of tossing the ball down the field, which is not good news for the defense either. Our front four did a great job of getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers, but our secondary looked like toast. Now we have to go without the one person who makes all the defensive calls. The other one, Mike Brown, is no longer there, so Urlacher was it.
Furthermore, with the love for passing down field we are on the verge of forgetting the running game. I've seen this before, back when Rex Grossman was the new hit in Chicago, and we just started airing it out left and right. It lost us a Super Bowl.
- In the other games, the Colts struggled to beat a bad Jacksonville team, which didn't surprise me too much. The Bengals and the Broncos both looked awful on offense, another non-surprise. In both of these instances the common logic prevailed. Indianapolis is going to struggle because they don't have a second wide receiver to complement Reggie Wayne. Anthony Gonzalez is out two to six weeks now, but he lost Peyton's all important "trust" this preseason by dropping too many balls. The Indy defense looked good, but you have to remember that they were going against two rookie tackles making their first starts. Against any team with a pulse Indy would have lost yesterday, but that is the difference between the good teams and the bad: the good teams find a way to win.
In Cincinnati, however, we were seeing two very bad teams go against one another. Kyle Orton looked every bit as weak armed as I remembered him being, and Carson Palmer looked washed up on the other sideline. That this game would end on such a fluke play (click here if you didn't see it) was pretty fitting. Let's just say that I'm fairly confident both of these teams will be closer to ten losses than ten wins.
- San Francisco began its march to the NFC west crown by defeating last year's NFC champs, and doing so in the ugly manner you would expect from a Mike Singletary team. I loved this hire for San Francisco; you go from a number of coaches who just couldn't connect with the players to one who was one of the best ever, and who's intensity can never be questioned. Singletary will get a ton out of this team even though there isn't a whole lot of talent there. It's amazing what a good coach can do.
- From Arizona's perspective, however, the Super Bowl curse is already showing its effects. Warner looked a bit slower than last year, the ground game still struggled, and they just couldn't come up with the big plays they did last year. Let's not forget that Arizona was only 9-7 last year (the same record the Bears had), and just happened to play in a weak division, then get hot at the right time. Arizona also will be closer to ten losses than to ten wins this year.
- It's far too early to revise my predictions; I'd like to wait until at least the quarter mark, if not mid season to do that. But let's just say that I'll be hoping that New England blows the Bills out tonight. It'd be nice to have one pick look even remotely possible after week one.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
The Greatest There Ever Was
This weekend, ever so quietly, the G.O.A.T. made his final journey into basketball immortality. How strange is it, after all these years, that the final step of Michael Jordan's illustrious basketball career would be so soundly overshadowed by the start of the NFL season? A man who, for the better part of a decade starting in the late 1980s, dominated the sports world as completely and thoroughly as anyone ever has, and he was overshadowed by the start of a different league's season.
I think that the way MJ's HOF induction was covered tells us a number of things. The first thing is that many people still are unsure how to come to grips with Jordan. His name is far more famous than any other name in this world. But at this point he has become a bit of an enigma to the masses. He had the greatest stretch of any professional athlete, regardless of sport, and that time included a retirement (1988-1998). He dominated an entire era both on the individual level, as well as the team level; six NBA championships, five MVP awards, countless scoring titles, All-NBA defensive team honors as well as Defensive Player of the Year awards ... you name it, Jordan did it.
But the same things that made fans love (or hate) Jordan during his prime are the very things that leave so many wondering what to make of him now. His competitive drive, so legendary, was what drove him to levels no other man had achieved. But that same drive is now what leads to articles like this being written about how much of a bitter man he has become. Or books, like Michael Leahy's brilliant account of MJ's time with the Washington Wizards, to be written. Look, I'm a huge Michael Jordan fan, but I'm also a realist. The very things that made my childhood idol such a success are the very things that drive people away from him. I'm not the least bit surprised that he spent a portion of his acceptance speech taking shots at his High School coach (who cut him from the varsity team), or Isiah Thomas, or Jerry Krause. It was, no matter how little you might want to admit it, those people who drove Michael to the heights he reached. They all, in their own way, belittled the man who would become the greatest ever. But much as Michael used them to drive himself to higher levels, he now needs them to confirm to himself that he was worthwhile.
Being the king of the world may be lonely, but having once been the king, and now just being able to look back on it wistfully must be much worse. Michael Jordan used his demons and his competitive drive to push himself to the top. Those same aspects of him now leave him unable to come to grips with his own humanity. We often idolize people, ignoring their flaws, but when we start to embrace them, flaws and all, there can be important lessons to be learned. With Michael the lesson is obvious: always be aware of your own mortality, and know that everything has to end.
I think that the way MJ's HOF induction was covered tells us a number of things. The first thing is that many people still are unsure how to come to grips with Jordan. His name is far more famous than any other name in this world. But at this point he has become a bit of an enigma to the masses. He had the greatest stretch of any professional athlete, regardless of sport, and that time included a retirement (1988-1998). He dominated an entire era both on the individual level, as well as the team level; six NBA championships, five MVP awards, countless scoring titles, All-NBA defensive team honors as well as Defensive Player of the Year awards ... you name it, Jordan did it.
But the same things that made fans love (or hate) Jordan during his prime are the very things that leave so many wondering what to make of him now. His competitive drive, so legendary, was what drove him to levels no other man had achieved. But that same drive is now what leads to articles like this being written about how much of a bitter man he has become. Or books, like Michael Leahy's brilliant account of MJ's time with the Washington Wizards, to be written. Look, I'm a huge Michael Jordan fan, but I'm also a realist. The very things that made my childhood idol such a success are the very things that drive people away from him. I'm not the least bit surprised that he spent a portion of his acceptance speech taking shots at his High School coach (who cut him from the varsity team), or Isiah Thomas, or Jerry Krause. It was, no matter how little you might want to admit it, those people who drove Michael to the heights he reached. They all, in their own way, belittled the man who would become the greatest ever. But much as Michael used them to drive himself to higher levels, he now needs them to confirm to himself that he was worthwhile.
Being the king of the world may be lonely, but having once been the king, and now just being able to look back on it wistfully must be much worse. Michael Jordan used his demons and his competitive drive to push himself to the top. Those same aspects of him now leave him unable to come to grips with his own humanity. We often idolize people, ignoring their flaws, but when we start to embrace them, flaws and all, there can be important lessons to be learned. With Michael the lesson is obvious: always be aware of your own mortality, and know that everything has to end.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Time Will Pass So Quickly
Just sitting here, writing this post, thinking about these things ... just doing this brings goosebumps up and down my arms. I can't really put a finger on it, but I can FEEL emotion welling up inside of me. So many things are rushing through my mind, and it is hard for me to really know where to begin with this story. And so, I suppose, I'll start with the title and move forward from there.
On February 28, 1999 my Grandfather passed away. I was in Jr. High School at the time, and he and I were rather close. It hurt quite a bit, but the timing was as right, as the timing of those things can be. His passing gave me an impromptu jolt forward, from childhood to a bit of adulthood, and it framed quite a bit of my thinking through the next few years. Since the day of his funeral I have carried the same card in my wallet. It's from his funeral, and has a poem on it, as things of that nature often do. A portion of the poem which I often have focused in on read "Time will pass so quickly, but time will heal the wounds." Throughout many tough times in my life I have meditated on these words as hope for the future and moving forward.
If my Grandfather's death was impact moment number one in my childhood, the first moment which violently moved me towards adulthood, then the second moment occurred September 11, 2001. Sitting in a class room in my High School, taking a standardized test, we had no idea what had just befallen our country. If this were to happen even today I have no doubt that someone in that class would have received a text message, or a facebook update, or a twitter about the goings on. Even in the classroom. But in 2001 I didn't even have a cell phone yet, and those who did were not yet brazen enough to carry them into a class, at least not on.
So we sat, totally unaware of the world shifting under our feet, for a few hours while we took
tests that we had to take to be able to graduate. The last moments, as it would be, of our childhood were slipping away, and we had no idea. The world was changing, and the paradigm that had worked since the fall of the USSR, the same basic idea that had encompassed our world view for all of our lives, was almost instantly gone. When Mr. Cook walked into the room with a such a serious look on his face I knew something was up. He told us that we would remember sitting in that class, that day, the same way our parents remembered where they were when JFK was killed, and our Grandparents when Pearl Harbor was bombed. The weight started to pound down on me, but in a calm, strong, articulate manner he managed to convey what had happened. And I jumped forward yet again.
Perhaps it was preordained from birth that I would get into politics, but I have a sneaking suspicion that 9/11 cemented my direction. I finished my remaining years of High School
continuing to distance myself from much of what I had held dear, and moving out towards ... something. I wasn't sure then, and I would be lying if I told you that I was any more sure right now. I got involved with Student Government, and we pushed through a number of goals that others had tried and failed to achieve. I was Senior Class President, but by the time I graduated I had burned most of the bridges I had with my various social groups. I moved towards Indiana University with a sense of cautious optimism.
I settled on Political Science as my major while sitting with my roommate to be in a room without air conditioning in Bloomington, in mid-July. It was hot, I was wearing hair down to my shoulders, and had not shaved in about two months. It was my first time to Bloomington in nearly a decade (I never visited, just applied, was accepted, and accepted their acceptance). And I was reading through all the various majors which were offered, and trying to settle on something to tell my "advisor" in the morning. A big state school, particularly a Liberal-Arts one such as IU, gives you every option under the sun. I settled on Political Science for the outward reason that I had always loved History, and wanted something I'd love, yet I also wanted something that would challenge me to grow. And so the die was cast: I would study Political Science.
I suspect that inwardly I was still feeling the aftershocks of 9/11. I had no idea what focus I would have within the department, and I actually had no idea what the department could offer. I signed up for one Political Science class (Intro to US Politics), which I figured would be nice and easy since I had taken AP Government in High School. I wasn't genuinely moved within my major until, on a whim, I signed up for Y109 my second semester. Introduction to International Relations was the name of the class. A portion of my third jump forward was about to occur, although I had no way of knowing at the time.
You see, my freshman year in High School I saw George W. Bush take office by beating Al Gore. I still, to this day, will be honest and tell you I would have voted for Bush whole heartedly if given the chance. My freshman year at IU I again saw Bush win office, this time by beating Kerry. I was voting now, for the first time, and I was genuinely conflicted by my choice. On the one had you had Bush, who was the devil I knew, and who, to that point, had one big strike against him in my book: he had totally, systematically mismanaged the occupation of Iraq. My initial support for the War in Iraq is a story for another day; still, by 2004 I knew that it wasn't going well, and I had determined that Bush was, above all else, not a great Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces. On the other hand you had John F. Kerry, who was nothing if not a worthless joke of candidate. I couldn't envision Kerry as President. I weighed the devil I knew against the devil I didn't, was convinced that in Indiana it wouldn't matter anyway ... and swung with Kerry as a "protest vote."
To be honest, even with everything that befell the Bush Administration since that point I STILL feel dirty about having voted for Kerry. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with that vote. But 9/11 had changed me so much in such a small period of time: I began to delve in to international relations, and I focused on the Middle East. First with Kuwait, and a study of a "close" American ally in the Middle East. Then, after being given a research internship, with the Middle East Northern Tier. Again, the following year, with the Persian Gulf region. And, finally, culminating with a study of diplomacy in the nuclear age, and an Honors Thesis on the Iranian nuclear issue.
My time at IU was quickly shaped by 9/11, even if I didn't realize it at the time. Political Science wasn't even a fleeting thought in my mind on that day, yet by the time that six years had passed
I had become knowledgeable on the Middle East, international relations, diplomacy, and nuclear weapons. The world changed that day, and I changed that day, and those changes really do closely parallel one another. There are other things that played integral roles on how I ended up here too, most significantly the reality that Hurricane Katrina brought every American about how unprepared we were 
to deal with our own problems even as we tried to fix the world's. But, sitting here today, I can honestly say that there are at least dozens of other things I may have ended up doing had those planes not hit the towers, or the Pentagon, or the field in Pennsylvania. It is mind blowing that I can sit here and say that eight years have passed. EIGHT YEARS! On the one hand, it still feels like yesterday to be honest. But, quite on the other, it seems like an eternity has passed. It seems like ancient history, or at least history of the World War II variety where we are still seeing the outcomes but the impact itself seems so long ago.
And now I work with kids, in residential placement, trying to make the world a better place quite literally one life at a time. And, again, I wonder how I got here. This certainly isn't where I thought I would be if you had asked me three years ago. I still can't believe I've been out of school for over a year. On some levels I feel like a failure because I'm not doing what I was "supposed" to do, but on other levels I feel like a success exactly because of that reason. Is grad school a real option for me? I know some people who were born and bred for it. I worked with them at school; hell, I LIVED with them at school. I don't talk to any of them anymore, for a variety of reasons, but I know that I'm not built like them. One thing that I have learned about myself is that no matter how academic I make it, no matter how intellectual I try to keep things, I still feel them too much to truly keep it separate. I work with these kids because this is tangible, and I can see my successes and my failures up close and personal. I'm not sure that I could ever see the results like that in the academic or government settings, and for that reason, perhaps above all others, I can honestly s
ay I'm not sure where I'm going. But today, at least, I know where I've been, and where it has taken me.
I'm still not sure what to make of the world we've been left with following 9/11. Sometimes I feel like Frodo does in The Lord of the Rings: "I wish the ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened." I think we all feel that way from time to time in life, when we get down, when bad things befall us. It is not Frodo's quote we need to remember, however, but instead Gandalf's response: "So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us." Time has passed so quickly, but I can say that, even if time has not quite healed the many wounds that life has left with me, I have also lived a lifetime in the past eight years. Only time will tell what the next eight may bring.
On February 28, 1999 my Grandfather passed away. I was in Jr. High School at the time, and he and I were rather close. It hurt quite a bit, but the timing was as right, as the timing of those things can be. His passing gave me an impromptu jolt forward, from childhood to a bit of adulthood, and it framed quite a bit of my thinking through the next few years. Since the day of his funeral I have carried the same card in my wallet. It's from his funeral, and has a poem on it, as things of that nature often do. A portion of the poem which I often have focused in on read "Time will pass so quickly, but time will heal the wounds." Throughout many tough times in my life I have meditated on these words as hope for the future and moving forward.
If my Grandfather's death was impact moment number one in my childhood, the first moment which violently moved me towards adulthood, then the second moment occurred September 11, 2001. Sitting in a class room in my High School, taking a standardized test, we had no idea what had just befallen our country. If this were to happen even today I have no doubt that someone in that class would have received a text message, or a facebook update, or a twitter about the goings on. Even in the classroom. But in 2001 I didn't even have a cell phone yet, and those who did were not yet brazen enough to carry them into a class, at least not on.
So we sat, totally unaware of the world shifting under our feet, for a few hours while we took
tests that we had to take to be able to graduate. The last moments, as it would be, of our childhood were slipping away, and we had no idea. The world was changing, and the paradigm that had worked since the fall of the USSR, the same basic idea that had encompassed our world view for all of our lives, was almost instantly gone. When Mr. Cook walked into the room with a such a serious look on his face I knew something was up. He told us that we would remember sitting in that class, that day, the same way our parents remembered where they were when JFK was killed, and our Grandparents when Pearl Harbor was bombed. The weight started to pound down on me, but in a calm, strong, articulate manner he managed to convey what had happened. And I jumped forward yet again.Perhaps it was preordained from birth that I would get into politics, but I have a sneaking suspicion that 9/11 cemented my direction. I finished my remaining years of High School
continuing to distance myself from much of what I had held dear, and moving out towards ... something. I wasn't sure then, and I would be lying if I told you that I was any more sure right now. I got involved with Student Government, and we pushed through a number of goals that others had tried and failed to achieve. I was Senior Class President, but by the time I graduated I had burned most of the bridges I had with my various social groups. I moved towards Indiana University with a sense of cautious optimism.I settled on Political Science as my major while sitting with my roommate to be in a room without air conditioning in Bloomington, in mid-July. It was hot, I was wearing hair down to my shoulders, and had not shaved in about two months. It was my first time to Bloomington in nearly a decade (I never visited, just applied, was accepted, and accepted their acceptance). And I was reading through all the various majors which were offered, and trying to settle on something to tell my "advisor" in the morning. A big state school, particularly a Liberal-Arts one such as IU, gives you every option under the sun. I settled on Political Science for the outward reason that I had always loved History, and wanted something I'd love, yet I also wanted something that would challenge me to grow. And so the die was cast: I would study Political Science.
I suspect that inwardly I was still feeling the aftershocks of 9/11. I had no idea what focus I would have within the department, and I actually had no idea what the department could offer. I signed up for one Political Science class (Intro to US Politics), which I figured would be nice and easy since I had taken AP Government in High School. I wasn't genuinely moved within my major until, on a whim, I signed up for Y109 my second semester. Introduction to International Relations was the name of the class. A portion of my third jump forward was about to occur, although I had no way of knowing at the time.
You see, my freshman year in High School I saw George W. Bush take office by beating Al Gore. I still, to this day, will be honest and tell you I would have voted for Bush whole heartedly if given the chance. My freshman year at IU I again saw Bush win office, this time by beating Kerry. I was voting now, for the first time, and I was genuinely conflicted by my choice. On the one had you had Bush, who was the devil I knew, and who, to that point, had one big strike against him in my book: he had totally, systematically mismanaged the occupation of Iraq. My initial support for the War in Iraq is a story for another day; still, by 2004 I knew that it wasn't going well, and I had determined that Bush was, above all else, not a great Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces. On the other hand you had John F. Kerry, who was nothing if not a worthless joke of candidate. I couldn't envision Kerry as President. I weighed the devil I knew against the devil I didn't, was convinced that in Indiana it wouldn't matter anyway ... and swung with Kerry as a "protest vote."
To be honest, even with everything that befell the Bush Administration since that point I STILL feel dirty about having voted for Kerry. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with that vote. But 9/11 had changed me so much in such a small period of time: I began to delve in to international relations, and I focused on the Middle East. First with Kuwait, and a study of a "close" American ally in the Middle East. Then, after being given a research internship, with the Middle East Northern Tier. Again, the following year, with the Persian Gulf region. And, finally, culminating with a study of diplomacy in the nuclear age, and an Honors Thesis on the Iranian nuclear issue.
My time at IU was quickly shaped by 9/11, even if I didn't realize it at the time. Political Science wasn't even a fleeting thought in my mind on that day, yet by the time that six years had passed
I had become knowledgeable on the Middle East, international relations, diplomacy, and nuclear weapons. The world changed that day, and I changed that day, and those changes really do closely parallel one another. There are other things that played integral roles on how I ended up here too, most significantly the reality that Hurricane Katrina brought every American about how unprepared we were 
to deal with our own problems even as we tried to fix the world's. But, sitting here today, I can honestly say that there are at least dozens of other things I may have ended up doing had those planes not hit the towers, or the Pentagon, or the field in Pennsylvania. It is mind blowing that I can sit here and say that eight years have passed. EIGHT YEARS! On the one hand, it still feels like yesterday to be honest. But, quite on the other, it seems like an eternity has passed. It seems like ancient history, or at least history of the World War II variety where we are still seeing the outcomes but the impact itself seems so long ago.And now I work with kids, in residential placement, trying to make the world a better place quite literally one life at a time. And, again, I wonder how I got here. This certainly isn't where I thought I would be if you had asked me three years ago. I still can't believe I've been out of school for over a year. On some levels I feel like a failure because I'm not doing what I was "supposed" to do, but on other levels I feel like a success exactly because of that reason. Is grad school a real option for me? I know some people who were born and bred for it. I worked with them at school; hell, I LIVED with them at school. I don't talk to any of them anymore, for a variety of reasons, but I know that I'm not built like them. One thing that I have learned about myself is that no matter how academic I make it, no matter how intellectual I try to keep things, I still feel them too much to truly keep it separate. I work with these kids because this is tangible, and I can see my successes and my failures up close and personal. I'm not sure that I could ever see the results like that in the academic or government settings, and for that reason, perhaps above all others, I can honestly s
ay I'm not sure where I'm going. But today, at least, I know where I've been, and where it has taken me.I'm still not sure what to make of the world we've been left with following 9/11. Sometimes I feel like Frodo does in The Lord of the Rings: "I wish the ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened." I think we all feel that way from time to time in life, when we get down, when bad things befall us. It is not Frodo's quote we need to remember, however, but instead Gandalf's response: "So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us." Time has passed so quickly, but I can say that, even if time has not quite healed the many wounds that life has left with me, I have also lived a lifetime in the past eight years. Only time will tell what the next eight may bring.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
While We Were Sleeping
The debate here in the US has been focused on health care. Health care this, health care that. Is Obama a socialist? He was during the election at least, but now he's also a fascist? Not only is the anti-Obama movement in this country angry, but now it's also totally nonsensical. Congress goes on its Summer break, and at town hall after town hall people are going crazy over the proposed legislation.
Thankfully I'm not here to write about health care. Honestly, who cares? The system is broken; the proposed changes would leave the system still broken. The reality is that many of the people who are so vibrantly opposed to the legislation are opposed just because they oppose change. The conservative movement in this country has totally ceased to have any original ideas, and instead they just oppose change in any form.
Outside of the US the world has continued to turn, and in Iran things continue to happen. Now months since the Iranian Presidential election the ramifications of that fixed process continue to play out. Today the New York Times reports that the offices of the leading Iranian opposition members were raided. In the minds of nearly all Americans, I would suppose, the Iranian election has played itself out already. To believe that, however, would be to not fully appreciate the depth of what is going on in and around Tehran.
In a way it is very American for us to be so focused on something that is highly unlikely to happen (significant health care reform) while ignoring something that is far more likely to have a direct impact on our nation's foreign policy and national security (the power struggle going on in Iran). We have always been a nation with deep isolationist roots, a truly reluctant super power when considered from the ground (everyday citizens) up. It is only natural, therefore, that many Americans, if not most, would focus on battling for or against change in the form of health care legislation while choosing to ignore the boiling volcano in the Middle East. But health care reform, not matter how drastic, doesn't have the potential to lead us into a deadly conflict. The Iranian political system does, and that is why it bears watching.
Thankfully I'm not here to write about health care. Honestly, who cares? The system is broken; the proposed changes would leave the system still broken. The reality is that many of the people who are so vibrantly opposed to the legislation are opposed just because they oppose change. The conservative movement in this country has totally ceased to have any original ideas, and instead they just oppose change in any form.
Outside of the US the world has continued to turn, and in Iran things continue to happen. Now months since the Iranian Presidential election the ramifications of that fixed process continue to play out. Today the New York Times reports that the offices of the leading Iranian opposition members were raided. In the minds of nearly all Americans, I would suppose, the Iranian election has played itself out already. To believe that, however, would be to not fully appreciate the depth of what is going on in and around Tehran.
Former President Katahmi is still calling for the opposition movement to rise up and not stand for the fixed results. He is calling the movements and actions of the current government "totalitarian" and "fascist." Katahmi is the most prominent and vocal member of the opposition, and his speaking out continues a pattern of prominent members of the Iranian political elite challenging the authority of the Supreme Leader. All this while the IAEA admits that its talks with Iran are at a stalemate, and while Ahmadinejad is again saying he is "open" to the idea of negotiating with the UNSC 5 plus Germany.
In a way it is very American for us to be so focused on something that is highly unlikely to happen (significant health care reform) while ignoring something that is far more likely to have a direct impact on our nation's foreign policy and national security (the power struggle going on in Iran). We have always been a nation with deep isolationist roots, a truly reluctant super power when considered from the ground (everyday citizens) up. It is only natural, therefore, that many Americans, if not most, would focus on battling for or against change in the form of health care legislation while choosing to ignore the boiling volcano in the Middle East. But health care reform, not matter how drastic, doesn't have the potential to lead us into a deadly conflict. The Iranian political system does, and that is why it bears watching.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
The Links
I've been meaning to write about these various issues. But, as is often the case, life gets in the way. So I'll do the next best thing here: pass the articles on to you directly! Lots of politics here, with a little MLB on the side:
- This article takes a good look at Ted Kennedy's legislative career, and the things he left unfinished.
- The New York Times presents a view here on how climate change will become (if it hasn't already) integral to our national security.
- Politico here presents an article on the Democrats worries over Obama's war strategies.
- SI.com gives us an article on the struggles which small market teams are experiencing now with the economy down.
- And, finally, this article from awhile ago explores McCain's rational for opposing the nomination of Sotomayor.
- This article takes a good look at Ted Kennedy's legislative career, and the things he left unfinished.
- The New York Times presents a view here on how climate change will become (if it hasn't already) integral to our national security.
- Politico here presents an article on the Democrats worries over Obama's war strategies.
- SI.com gives us an article on the struggles which small market teams are experiencing now with the economy down.
- And, finally, this article from awhile ago explores McCain's rational for opposing the nomination of Sotomayor.
A Dave Matthews Band Breakdown
So I'm going to see Dave Matthews Band a third time this year. The first two, which I wrote about on here, were a Friday/Saturday pair of shows in Noblesville, IN. On September 26th a little more than a half dozen of us will make the trek to Chicago and the Tinley Park Amphitheater to see him again. Tinley Park is the site where I first saw DMB three years ago. Since then my travels have brought me to him four times at Noblesville, and once in Bloomington, where he played with Tim Reynolds.
Going to Tinley with me will be a group of the usual suspects, but it will also be my brother's first Dave show. In honor of that, and in honor of my third time this season, I present my list of the ten best DMB songs. When going over the one hundred plus songs that make up the Dave Matthews Band catalogue I settled on the following rules:
- No songs off of any solo album could qualify. In practical terms that means that Some Devil, Dave's solo album, could not be considered.
- No covers could be on the list. This means that DMB's cover of All Along the Watchtower, which is one of my favorite songs, does not qualify.
- A song should be good on the studio album release, but should be equally good, if not better, live. This rule is important because DMB has been and always will be a band that is in its essence live. Really, you can't pass judgement on them until you've seen them live.
So, without further delay, here are my top ten favorite songs by Dave Matthews Band:
10. Why I Am / Funny The Way It Is
A tie? Yes, a tie. It's lame to have a top ten list that consists of eleven songs, but I haven't had enough time with either of these songs to determine which is actually better. They are both off of the new release, Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King (buy it now!), and they are both spectacular in their own ways. "Why I Am" is an upbeat song with powerful drive, an open celebration of late DMB saxophonist LeRoy Moore's life. "Funny" is the rare DMB single that shines through. Tim Reynolds guitar solo is wonderful, the song has a powerful meaning, and all around it delivers the goods. As a tie breaker I considered both of these songs live, and the crowd was at 100% intensity for both. So, yes, a tie. I guess it's a top eleven list after all.
9. Dreaming Tree
This song, off of DMB's third studio release Before These Crowded Streets, is hauntingly beautiful and equally powerful. The soft music drives through the song, giving a soft number an incredible intensity. The lyrics are moving and insightful: "standing here the old man said to me 'long before these crowded streets, here stood my dreaming tree.' Below it he would sit for hours at a time; now progress takes away what forever took to find." When I saw Dave and Tim live at Assembly Hall for the Obama benefit they played this, and it blew me away. They rarely play this song live, but seeing Dave and Tim do it, seeing the crowd's reaction when they realized what the song was ... it was enough to secure that this song is something special.
8. Rhyme and Reason
Off of DMB's first studio release, Under The Table and Dreaming, this song is one I have not seen live yet, but you can bet I'm looking forward to hearing it. Watching it live on The Central Park Concert DVD gives you an idea of the power behind this song. This clip, from a concert 9/11/99, is a good example of this. I love the way this song starts off slow, then builds into an explosion, then slowly fades away.
7. Tripping Billies
This song was the first that Boyd Tinsley was brought in to play violin for, and the rest, as they say, was history. Released on Two Things, and then again with the second studio release Crash, "Billies" is a long time DMB staple which is very popular live for a good number of reasons. First, the song is just plain fun, and has great energy to dance to, sing to, and enjoy the moment with your friends. Second, Boyd just kills on the violin solos on this one. The song is great on the album, but this is a great example of a song that gets taken to a whole different level when seen live.
6. Two Step
This was the final encore of the final night this year, and it made up for a concert that had been a bit of a let down to that point (although, upon further review of the set list, it was only a let down because the night before had been so mind-numbingly awesome). Another song off of Crash, this song is another that starts slowly, builds intensity, and then just explodes. With "Two Step," however, it is the brass line that just kills. That's the thing about DMB: every time you think one part of the band outshines another a song will come along to change your perception. This song has always been one of my favorites off of the albums, but live it is other-worldly. An easy inclusion on to this list. (If you want to see what I'm talking about check out this clip from the show I was at this year.)
5. Ants Marching
Off of Under The Table, this song was a single when it came out, but had been played by the band for some time before the actual studio release (much like "Billies"). Ants is a staple of a live show with DMB; they may not always play it, but when they do you know that they feel the crowd is totally with them. I saw it as the final number before the encore at Tinley Park during that first show, and it was amazing. The violin solo here is perhaps my favorite Boyd solo, and the drums just drive throughout (although, with Carter, that is almost always the case). Seeing this song live is quite the experience, and it is also an amazing studio song. In the world of DMB that's the rare double feature.
4. # 41
Sometimes you don't name the songs, you just label them by the order you wrote them in. "41" is an amazing song off of Crash that often gets fifteen to twenty minutes of the band just jamming with each other live. It has some great lyrics, but the real treat is just listening to the band play as one for what seems like a pristine eternity after the lyrics have finished.
3. Satellite
If there was a song that made me fall in love with DMB this song would be it. I remember when this song was a radio single; it alone led me to purchase the album it was off of (Under The Table again), and so it alone led me to become the fan I have become. The soft guitar intro just floats, and the song follows through with a beautiful melody. I have seen this song live a number of times, including Tinley Park, twice at Verizon and with Dave and Tim at Assembly, but it never gets old. It is always, hands down, a treat to see and hear.
2. Alligator Pie
A disclaimer in the interest of full disclosure: I spent the better part of my college years at IU working in Hurricane Katrina relief. This song is about New Orleans following Katrina. On that level it is quite the emotional song for me. But beyond that, this song showcases every aspect that makes this band an all-time great. The drums drive throughout, the guitar is amazing, Boyd nails the violin, and Stefan rocks the bass ... just an all time effort. Check it out here live at the Beacon theater; Dave explains a bit about the song. I saw this song both nights this year, and the crowd was totally into it. This song is, perhaps, the best song they've written in a years. With my emotional attachment to it there is only one song that could top it...
1. Bartender
When I was a Junior or Senior in High School (can't really remember which) I was attending Youth Group one night, and our Pastor announced we would be taking communion. After he blessed the bread and juice (we are Methodist after all) a song began to play through the sound system. This wasn't out of the ordinary, but the song itself was something inspired. As big of a DMB fan as I am I had no idea the song was by them until I heard Dave's voice. And so, the first time I ever heard the song Bartender I took communion to it.
Bartender is much more than a song to me. It is my inspiration through the perils I face. It is my comfort during times of great trials. Seeing it live is always like a religious experience. No song can give me goosebumps the instant that the opening brass kicks in. I saw it live at Tinley Park that first year, and at once knew that the show would be a success no matter what happened. I saw it again at Noblesville two years ago, and felt the weight of the world lift off my shoulders. Dave and Tim played it in Assembly Hall as my time at IU wrapped up, and it seemed right. They opened with it the first night at Noblesville this year, and at that moment we all knew it was going to be a night that would never, ever, ever be topped. Bartender is not just my favorite song by Dave Matthews Band (by the way, it's off of Busted Stuff). Bartender is my favorite song of all time, period. When the time comes, and the good Lord lifts me up and takes me far from here, this is the song I want played at my funeral. Oh, if I go before I'm old...
Going to Tinley with me will be a group of the usual suspects, but it will also be my brother's first Dave show. In honor of that, and in honor of my third time this season, I present my list of the ten best DMB songs. When going over the one hundred plus songs that make up the Dave Matthews Band catalogue I settled on the following rules:
- No songs off of any solo album could qualify. In practical terms that means that Some Devil, Dave's solo album, could not be considered.
- No covers could be on the list. This means that DMB's cover of All Along the Watchtower, which is one of my favorite songs, does not qualify.
- A song should be good on the studio album release, but should be equally good, if not better, live. This rule is important because DMB has been and always will be a band that is in its essence live. Really, you can't pass judgement on them until you've seen them live.
So, without further delay, here are my top ten favorite songs by Dave Matthews Band:
10. Why I Am / Funny The Way It Is
A tie? Yes, a tie. It's lame to have a top ten list that consists of eleven songs, but I haven't had enough time with either of these songs to determine which is actually better. They are both off of the new release, Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King (buy it now!), and they are both spectacular in their own ways. "Why I Am" is an upbeat song with powerful drive, an open celebration of late DMB saxophonist LeRoy Moore's life. "Funny" is the rare DMB single that shines through. Tim Reynolds guitar solo is wonderful, the song has a powerful meaning, and all around it delivers the goods. As a tie breaker I considered both of these songs live, and the crowd was at 100% intensity for both. So, yes, a tie. I guess it's a top eleven list after all.
9. Dreaming Tree
This song, off of DMB's third studio release Before These Crowded Streets, is hauntingly beautiful and equally powerful. The soft music drives through the song, giving a soft number an incredible intensity. The lyrics are moving and insightful: "standing here the old man said to me 'long before these crowded streets, here stood my dreaming tree.' Below it he would sit for hours at a time; now progress takes away what forever took to find." When I saw Dave and Tim live at Assembly Hall for the Obama benefit they played this, and it blew me away. They rarely play this song live, but seeing Dave and Tim do it, seeing the crowd's reaction when they realized what the song was ... it was enough to secure that this song is something special.
8. Rhyme and Reason
Off of DMB's first studio release, Under The Table and Dreaming, this song is one I have not seen live yet, but you can bet I'm looking forward to hearing it. Watching it live on The Central Park Concert DVD gives you an idea of the power behind this song. This clip, from a concert 9/11/99, is a good example of this. I love the way this song starts off slow, then builds into an explosion, then slowly fades away.
7. Tripping Billies
This song was the first that Boyd Tinsley was brought in to play violin for, and the rest, as they say, was history. Released on Two Things, and then again with the second studio release Crash, "Billies" is a long time DMB staple which is very popular live for a good number of reasons. First, the song is just plain fun, and has great energy to dance to, sing to, and enjoy the moment with your friends. Second, Boyd just kills on the violin solos on this one. The song is great on the album, but this is a great example of a song that gets taken to a whole different level when seen live.
6. Two Step
This was the final encore of the final night this year, and it made up for a concert that had been a bit of a let down to that point (although, upon further review of the set list, it was only a let down because the night before had been so mind-numbingly awesome). Another song off of Crash, this song is another that starts slowly, builds intensity, and then just explodes. With "Two Step," however, it is the brass line that just kills. That's the thing about DMB: every time you think one part of the band outshines another a song will come along to change your perception. This song has always been one of my favorites off of the albums, but live it is other-worldly. An easy inclusion on to this list. (If you want to see what I'm talking about check out this clip from the show I was at this year.)
5. Ants Marching
Off of Under The Table, this song was a single when it came out, but had been played by the band for some time before the actual studio release (much like "Billies"). Ants is a staple of a live show with DMB; they may not always play it, but when they do you know that they feel the crowd is totally with them. I saw it as the final number before the encore at Tinley Park during that first show, and it was amazing. The violin solo here is perhaps my favorite Boyd solo, and the drums just drive throughout (although, with Carter, that is almost always the case). Seeing this song live is quite the experience, and it is also an amazing studio song. In the world of DMB that's the rare double feature.
4. # 41
Sometimes you don't name the songs, you just label them by the order you wrote them in. "41" is an amazing song off of Crash that often gets fifteen to twenty minutes of the band just jamming with each other live. It has some great lyrics, but the real treat is just listening to the band play as one for what seems like a pristine eternity after the lyrics have finished.
3. Satellite
If there was a song that made me fall in love with DMB this song would be it. I remember when this song was a radio single; it alone led me to purchase the album it was off of (Under The Table again), and so it alone led me to become the fan I have become. The soft guitar intro just floats, and the song follows through with a beautiful melody. I have seen this song live a number of times, including Tinley Park, twice at Verizon and with Dave and Tim at Assembly, but it never gets old. It is always, hands down, a treat to see and hear.
2. Alligator Pie
A disclaimer in the interest of full disclosure: I spent the better part of my college years at IU working in Hurricane Katrina relief. This song is about New Orleans following Katrina. On that level it is quite the emotional song for me. But beyond that, this song showcases every aspect that makes this band an all-time great. The drums drive throughout, the guitar is amazing, Boyd nails the violin, and Stefan rocks the bass ... just an all time effort. Check it out here live at the Beacon theater; Dave explains a bit about the song. I saw this song both nights this year, and the crowd was totally into it. This song is, perhaps, the best song they've written in a years. With my emotional attachment to it there is only one song that could top it...
1. Bartender
When I was a Junior or Senior in High School (can't really remember which) I was attending Youth Group one night, and our Pastor announced we would be taking communion. After he blessed the bread and juice (we are Methodist after all) a song began to play through the sound system. This wasn't out of the ordinary, but the song itself was something inspired. As big of a DMB fan as I am I had no idea the song was by them until I heard Dave's voice. And so, the first time I ever heard the song Bartender I took communion to it.
Bartender is much more than a song to me. It is my inspiration through the perils I face. It is my comfort during times of great trials. Seeing it live is always like a religious experience. No song can give me goosebumps the instant that the opening brass kicks in. I saw it live at Tinley Park that first year, and at once knew that the show would be a success no matter what happened. I saw it again at Noblesville two years ago, and felt the weight of the world lift off my shoulders. Dave and Tim played it in Assembly Hall as my time at IU wrapped up, and it seemed right. They opened with it the first night at Noblesville this year, and at that moment we all knew it was going to be a night that would never, ever, ever be topped. Bartender is not just my favorite song by Dave Matthews Band (by the way, it's off of Busted Stuff). Bartender is my favorite song of all time, period. When the time comes, and the good Lord lifts me up and takes me far from here, this is the song I want played at my funeral. Oh, if I go before I'm old...
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
2009 - A Complex NFL Breakdown
I like to shamelessly remind everyone of my NFL predicting prowess, of how I've nailed at least one Super Bowl team in each of the past three years, and four of six in those three years over all, but the dirty truth? This stuff is a crap shoot, and no matter how many times I go over these lists, no matter how much I analyze and rethink the divisions they rarely feel right to me.
The NFL has become the king sport in America today. Baseball might have been our national pastime, but following the heartbreak of the strike in 1994 MLB is no longer king. Even the resurgence of baseball has ended up giving the sports fan more heartbreak than joy. As steroids have torn through the fabric of baseball we now have an entire generation of records, Hall of Fame "caliber" players, and even World Series titles which have about the same amount of credibility as Rod Blagojevich. Basketball reached its brief apex through the 1980s, with the help of Bird and Magic, and culminated in the 1990s, with the most marketable person ever heading their sport in Michael Jordan (who goes into the Hall of Fame this month if you haven't been following
ESPN). By the year 2000, however, the NBA had been inundated with a form of basketball more correctly referred to by one of my readers as "gangter-ball," and the lifestyles the players were presenting did little to dispel that impression.
Thus, through my lifetime the NFL has become king of all. It presents the best product, with the best distribution (Sundays suddenly become a defacto vacation). I'm psyched for the start of the NFL season; it feels like a long lost friend coming back again to have a beer with you. Like a long lost lover's passionate kiss. I could go on, but I think you probably get the point. My fantasy football drafts (yes, plural) are this Sunday back to back. I am thoroughly and nauseatingly prepared for both. I even bought my new Bears hat for the year, as well as my Jay Cutler jersey. Yes, you can say I have bought into the Cutler era faster than any sports era in Chicago sports.
But through all this I have had an incredibly difficult time pinning my predictions down. I've changed them every time I've sat down to look at them. There is only one division winner I'd say I'm 100% sure of, and only two others that I feel reasonably certain of. Other than those three (all in the AFC by the way) I can see this going a number of different ways. Still, I've got to try. And so this is my attempt to tell the future, starting with the way the divisions will break down, and the going through the playoffs, culminating in my Super Bowl pick. The last three years my picks for the Super Bowl were as follows:
2006 - Colts over Bears (I wish I had gotten this one wrong, not right)
2007 - Pats over Bears (Ended up Giants over Pats)
2008 - Steelers over Cowboys (Ended up as Steelers over Cardinals)
So two of the past three winners right, and four of the past six teams right. On the flip side, my NFC teams the past two years haven't even made the playoffs. And, once again, the NFC is tougher for me to pick than the AFC. So we'll see how I do. I'll pick rough records of finish for each team, but just a reminder: I take way too much time doing this to begin with, so I have not gone through each team's schedule to see if these records are all possible. I'm just tossing out numbers that feel right. Without further ado:
AFC East:
1. New England (13-3) - Brady is back, and he has more tools than ever. Moss and Welker are still his wide receivers, and he has a plethora of talented running backs at his disposal as well. The defense is getting younger, getting faster, and the addition of Derrick Burgess will greatly benefit the pass rush. This team has all the tools, and shouldn't have any issues securing the division crown, and little issue locking down the number one seed in the AFC. The Hoody just doesn't blow opportunities like this one.
2. Miami (9-7) - Miami is due to fall back to Earth after taking advantage of a last place schedule and the Brady injury last year. Chad Pennington, while efficient, isn't the greatest QB ever, and the Pats showed last year that the Wildcat can be stopped when game planned for. With a first place schedule this year the Dolphins could be in for a greater fall than this, but I believe in the next two teams even less.
3. Buffalo (8-8) - The offensive line is questionable, Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games because he likes to smoke Mary Jane, and T.O. is old. All these things suggest that Trent Edwards will have a hard time getting the offense over the hump. If Owens has another year left (an increasingly big if) then perhaps they can leapfrog Miami here. Otherwise I feel more comfortable with them here.
4. NY Jets (6-10) - The Jets will be taking a step back this year but a step forward for the future. Developing Sanchez is a good idea, and they have a good running game. They are a little thin at WR, but Sanchez is young and will probably struggle. If they are lucky he can have a Rick Mirer level rookie year (which, many forget, was the gold standard before Peyton Manning's rookie year), but I don't see him pulling a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh (12-4) - The Steelers had the toughest schedule in the NFL last year and survived, winning it all. I'm almost as sure about this pick as I was about the Pats winning the East, but the Steelers will have a bit more competition for the division crown. Still, with Big Ben, Hines and Santonio, Fast Willie, Mwelde and the potential of Mendenhal out of the backfield this team should be potent on offense. And the defense, of course, will knock your socks off. And you helmet. Possibly your jock as well. Mike Tomlin is one of the best young coaches in the NFL, and he fits the city and team perfectly.
2. Baltimore (11-5) - It's very dangerous picking two teams who made the playoffs the year before to both do well again, but Baltimore's defense is so dangerous that I can't help it. They were the second best team in the NFL last year, after the Steelers, and I can't see them regressing. If anything they should be better this year, with Ray Rice taking on more of the duties at RB and Joe Flacco getting another year of experience at QB. The two games between the Steelers and Ravens this year should be much watch TV for any true football fan.
3. Cincinnati (7-9) - The Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner.
4. Cleveland (5-11) - Brady Quinn ... Derric Anderson ... does it matter? Braylon Edwards will drop whatever he throws to them anyway. Jamal Lewis is done at RB, but they do have a few young prospects there. It'll just take more than one year for Mangini to turn the Browns into the mediocre team he turned the Jets into.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis (10-6) - Last year I correctly predicted that the Colts streak of division titles would end, and this year I was prepared to predict that their streak of playoff appearances would end. A few things changed, however, and now I find myself putting them here. It has more to do with this divisions talent level, as well as major question marks on the other teams. The teams in this division should beat each other up to the point where it will be tough to win more than ten games or so. As much as I would love to see Peyton Manning begin transitioning into the portion of his career where he can be nothing but a stat hungry jerk (which, well, he is), I think he's got one more division title in him. That said, I will say it loud an clear for all the Colts fans out there: this team is closer to missing the playoffs than it is to a Super Bowl appearance. Take it to the bank.
2. Houston (9-7) - The Texans, if QB Matt Schaub is healthy, have a potent offense and a rapidly improving defense. Steve Slaton was a revelation at RB last year, and he is ready and able to make the jump to top ten talent at the position this year. Andre Johnson is the best WR in the league, and TE Owen Daniels and WR Kevin Walter are great secondary options. This team might end up surprising a number of people this year.
3. Tennessee (9-7) - Kerry Collins ... Vince Young ... no WR to speak of ... and they lost their best player (DT Albert Hanesworth) to free agency. Yes, as good as they looked last year, I see a step back this year. Collins is old, has nobody to throw to, and they will have to pass more this year with the defense likely regressing a bit.
4. Jacksonville (8-8) - This division will be tight, and all four teams might be in contention as late as weeks 15 and 16 this year. The Jags will see improvements from Jones-Drew and Garrard, but they still feel like the low man on the totem pole to me.
AFC West:
1. San Diego (11-5) - If only Norv Turner wasn't the coach here I'd feel a lot better, because there is a ton to like. LaDanian Tomlinson seems primed for one last gasp of superstardom. Phillip Rivers is a superstar. Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson, as well as Darren Sproles, are all world talents and game breakers. The defense has a ton of talent, and Ron Rivera is calling plays now (which Bears fans can tell you is a great thing). This team might underachieve during the regular season, but once again you don't want to face them in the playoffs. They are so talented. Just ask Colts fans.
2. Kansas City (7-9) - Cassel will have to prove he isn't a one year wonder who was throwing to Moss and Welker, and Larry Johnson will have to prove he has something left in the tank. This team has a number of up and coming players, but it'll take it more than one year to gel.
3. Denver (7-9) - Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver. If Knowshon Moreno is ever healthy they will be a little better, but Brandon Marshall may be a lost cause. The defense, also, will need more than one year to go from a joke to respectable.
4. Oakland (5-11) - If you can't tell I don't have much hopes for the AFC west. Oakland has a QB in JaMarcus Russell who may never make "the jump." They have a cast of nobodies at WR, and a potentially great RB in Darren McFadden. If Oakland has a good defense they would be wise to run, run, run (they have depth too with Fargas and Bush). But they need to get the head coach to stop punching his assistants. It's bad for team chemistry.
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia (12-4) - The Eagles have a deep group at the skill positions, with options at RB and WR. McNabb should be able to put together another good year, and the defense, while it will miss the late Jim Johnson quite a bit, should still be able to come up with big plenty of big plays. The pick up of Michael Vick was an example of a high risk - high reward play: if Vick is able to play a role in the offense it is likely he will help the team score, but on the flip side he may be more of a distraction than a boon to the team. Johnson's death is the biggest reason not to like the Eagles this year, but McNabb now has more options than ever before. They are the pick in the tough NFC East.
2. NY Giants (10-6) - Eli Manning just received the most outrageous contract in quite some time, and he still has nobody to throw to. I may be proven wrong, but right now his career quarter back rating is worse than Jon Kitna's. I just don't see throwing all that money on a player who, at the time of his Super Bowl performance, had the same QB numbers as Rex Grossman. Furthermore, if you look at his numbers last year with Plaxico Burress and then without it becomes obvious: without Plaxico Eli is very average. The Giants still have a good defense and a good running game. If they play it smart they can still make the playoffs, but if they try to pretend Eli is anything other than an average QB they will be in trouble.
3. Dallas (8-8) - Dallas burned me last year, and all the issues with the defense and WR core this preseason haven't endeared me to them. Romo is good, and they have a number of good backs, but Wade Phillips is still the coach, and Jerry Jones is still dictator. They might be a game or two better than this, but then again they might be a game or two worse.
4. Washington (6-10) - It's doubtful that any team in this division finishes with this poor of a record, but the Redskins are the odds on favorites to do it if one of them does. Jason Campbell, by all reports, is a mess. Jim Zorn is waiting to be fired. Clinton Portis is getting older, as is Santana Moss. Plus, when was the last time that the big ticket free agent actually paid off? If you guessed Reggie White I'd have to agree with you.
NFC North:
1. Chicago (13-3) - Yes, I just said 13-3. Have you watched the Bears in the preseason? I know it's just "doesn't even count" football, but seriously, how can you not love this team? Cutler looks sharp, is making smart throws, and can hit a laser beam throw down field without blinking on the run with two three hundred pound linemen bearing down on him. Forte might catch 90 balls out of the backfield, and is looking great with the defense unable to put 8 men in the box every play. Our defense looks rejuvenated. Before I watched some games this was a three team race in my mind; after watching them I'd sold on the Bears. I am prepared to buy three more Bears jerseys so I can just rotate seven each week. Right now I have Walter Payton, Brian Urlacher, Devin Hester and Jay Cutler. I'd like to add Mike Singletary for sure. Other suggestions?
2. Green Bay (11-5) - The Packers have one of footballs top ten QBs in Aaron Rodgers, a good
running game, great receivers, and the switch to the 3-4 defense is reportedly going amazingly well. All they needed was a little extra motivation ... you know, something to really piss them off ... something to make all of them feel betrayed, and to unite their fans behind Rodgers and move past that other guy. What could do that? Hmm.........
3. Minnesota (9-7) - ... I know! Brett Favre could continue towards his goal of breaking MJ's record for most un-retirements! I mean, seriously, at least Jordan waited a year and a half to unretire during his shortest stint. I thought the Vikes were contenders, but I just can't see this Favre thing ending well. Too much bad karma. Plus, the Williams boys could be lost for four games, which would put their defense in the tank. I'm just excited for when Favre retires again
this offseason so he can join Mike Holmgren wherever Mike is coaching next year.
4. Detroit (3-13) - I sense a three game improvement from last year Lions fans!
NFC South:
1. New Orleans (11-5) - This division is also tough, but the Saints have perhaps the leagues second most potent offense, and it could be the most potent if Reggie Bush ever becomes anything other than the answer to the question "who is the most hated QB shoving RB at Notre Dame." The defense, under the tutelage of Greg Williams, should be improved. And don't forget that Brees put up those insane numbers last year with his number one receiver, Marques Colston, out most of the year.
2. Atlanta (10-6) - Atlanta had a very easy schedule last year, and has a hard one this year. Michael Turner will almost certainly regress a bit, but the addition of Tony Gonzalez at TE should help cover that. If everything goes well they should be in contention for a Wild Card spot, but I think they'll end up falling just short.
3. Carolina (8-8) - Deangelo Williams will not come close to last year, and Jonathan Stewart is already hurt. I feel bad for Steve Smith since Jake Delhomme is throwing him the ball. Delhomme was shot before he laid the biggest egg ever in the playoffs last year. The defense should be alright, but in this division, playing a first place schedule, they are in for a regression.
4. Tampa Bay (5-11) - Let's just say that change isn't always easy. And let's also say that I loved Byron Leftwich when he was at Marshall and leave it at that.
NFC West:
1. San Fransico (9-7) - That's all the better you should have to be to win this division, and I'm drinking the Mike Singletary Kool-Aid. Defense + running the ball + discipline = winning football. Shaun Hill is a competent QB to boot.
2. Seattle (7-9) - They are due for a bounce back if, and this is a big if, Matt Hasselbeck has something, anything left in the tank. But this division, bad as it is, won't be won by this team. I wonder if Chris Berman will pick them to win the NFC again...
3. Arizona (7-9) - Let's just say that I'm also skeptical that Kurt Warner can stay healthy for another 16 game season. Let's also throw in there that this defense isn't as good as it looked in the playoffs. And, just for fun, let's remember that Super Bowl losers almost never make the playoffs the next year. Even New England missed it last year.
4. St. Louis (5-11) - I hear Football Outsiders telling me they are the most likely team to see a huge win increase this year. But that's assuming that Marc Bulger didn't die a few years back. I think he might have. St. Louis may need a new QB, and until that is resolved they are in trouble.
So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York
Which would give us the following first round matchups:
AFC - San Diego over Houston, Baltimore over Indianapolis
NFC - New Orleans over New York, Green Bay over San Francisco
And the following second round matchups:
AFC - New England over Baltimore, Pittsburgh over San Diego
NFC - Chicago over Green Bay, Philadelphia over New Orleans
And the following championship game matchups:
AFC - New England over Pittsburgh
NFC - Chicago over Philadelphia
And the following Super Bowl result:
New England 24 - Chicago 27
You're darn right I just picked the Bears to win it all. With a QB on board for the first time since
Sid Luckman, doesn't it just feel right? Man am I ready for some football...
The NFL has become the king sport in America today. Baseball might have been our national pastime, but following the heartbreak of the strike in 1994 MLB is no longer king. Even the resurgence of baseball has ended up giving the sports fan more heartbreak than joy. As steroids have torn through the fabric of baseball we now have an entire generation of records, Hall of Fame "caliber" players, and even World Series titles which have about the same amount of credibility as Rod Blagojevich. Basketball reached its brief apex through the 1980s, with the help of Bird and Magic, and culminated in the 1990s, with the most marketable person ever heading their sport in Michael Jordan (who goes into the Hall of Fame this month if you haven't been following
ESPN). By the year 2000, however, the NBA had been inundated with a form of basketball more correctly referred to by one of my readers as "gangter-ball," and the lifestyles the players were presenting did little to dispel that impression.Thus, through my lifetime the NFL has become king of all. It presents the best product, with the best distribution (Sundays suddenly become a defacto vacation). I'm psyched for the start of the NFL season; it feels like a long lost friend coming back again to have a beer with you. Like a long lost lover's passionate kiss. I could go on, but I think you probably get the point. My fantasy football drafts (yes, plural) are this Sunday back to back. I am thoroughly and nauseatingly prepared for both. I even bought my new Bears hat for the year, as well as my Jay Cutler jersey. Yes, you can say I have bought into the Cutler era faster than any sports era in Chicago sports.
But through all this I have had an incredibly difficult time pinning my predictions down. I've changed them every time I've sat down to look at them. There is only one division winner I'd say I'm 100% sure of, and only two others that I feel reasonably certain of. Other than those three (all in the AFC by the way) I can see this going a number of different ways. Still, I've got to try. And so this is my attempt to tell the future, starting with the way the divisions will break down, and the going through the playoffs, culminating in my Super Bowl pick. The last three years my picks for the Super Bowl were as follows:
2006 - Colts over Bears (I wish I had gotten this one wrong, not right)
2007 - Pats over Bears (Ended up Giants over Pats)
2008 - Steelers over Cowboys (Ended up as Steelers over Cardinals)
So two of the past three winners right, and four of the past six teams right. On the flip side, my NFC teams the past two years haven't even made the playoffs. And, once again, the NFC is tougher for me to pick than the AFC. So we'll see how I do. I'll pick rough records of finish for each team, but just a reminder: I take way too much time doing this to begin with, so I have not gone through each team's schedule to see if these records are all possible. I'm just tossing out numbers that feel right. Without further ado:
AFC East:
1. New England (13-3) - Brady is back, and he has more tools than ever. Moss and Welker are still his wide receivers, and he has a plethora of talented running backs at his disposal as well. The defense is getting younger, getting faster, and the addition of Derrick Burgess will greatly benefit the pass rush. This team has all the tools, and shouldn't have any issues securing the division crown, and little issue locking down the number one seed in the AFC. The Hoody just doesn't blow opportunities like this one.
2. Miami (9-7) - Miami is due to fall back to Earth after taking advantage of a last place schedule and the Brady injury last year. Chad Pennington, while efficient, isn't the greatest QB ever, and the Pats showed last year that the Wildcat can be stopped when game planned for. With a first place schedule this year the Dolphins could be in for a greater fall than this, but I believe in the next two teams even less.
3. Buffalo (8-8) - The offensive line is questionable, Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games because he likes to smoke Mary Jane, and T.O. is old. All these things suggest that Trent Edwards will have a hard time getting the offense over the hump. If Owens has another year left (an increasingly big if) then perhaps they can leapfrog Miami here. Otherwise I feel more comfortable with them here.
4. NY Jets (6-10) - The Jets will be taking a step back this year but a step forward for the future. Developing Sanchez is a good idea, and they have a good running game. They are a little thin at WR, but Sanchez is young and will probably struggle. If they are lucky he can have a Rick Mirer level rookie year (which, many forget, was the gold standard before Peyton Manning's rookie year), but I don't see him pulling a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh (12-4) - The Steelers had the toughest schedule in the NFL last year and survived, winning it all. I'm almost as sure about this pick as I was about the Pats winning the East, but the Steelers will have a bit more competition for the division crown. Still, with Big Ben, Hines and Santonio, Fast Willie, Mwelde and the potential of Mendenhal out of the backfield this team should be potent on offense. And the defense, of course, will knock your socks off. And you helmet. Possibly your jock as well. Mike Tomlin is one of the best young coaches in the NFL, and he fits the city and team perfectly.
2. Baltimore (11-5) - It's very dangerous picking two teams who made the playoffs the year before to both do well again, but Baltimore's defense is so dangerous that I can't help it. They were the second best team in the NFL last year, after the Steelers, and I can't see them regressing. If anything they should be better this year, with Ray Rice taking on more of the duties at RB and Joe Flacco getting another year of experience at QB. The two games between the Steelers and Ravens this year should be much watch TV for any true football fan.
3. Cincinnati (7-9) - The Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner.
4. Cleveland (5-11) - Brady Quinn ... Derric Anderson ... does it matter? Braylon Edwards will drop whatever he throws to them anyway. Jamal Lewis is done at RB, but they do have a few young prospects there. It'll just take more than one year for Mangini to turn the Browns into the mediocre team he turned the Jets into.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis (10-6) - Last year I correctly predicted that the Colts streak of division titles would end, and this year I was prepared to predict that their streak of playoff appearances would end. A few things changed, however, and now I find myself putting them here. It has more to do with this divisions talent level, as well as major question marks on the other teams. The teams in this division should beat each other up to the point where it will be tough to win more than ten games or so. As much as I would love to see Peyton Manning begin transitioning into the portion of his career where he can be nothing but a stat hungry jerk (which, well, he is), I think he's got one more division title in him. That said, I will say it loud an clear for all the Colts fans out there: this team is closer to missing the playoffs than it is to a Super Bowl appearance. Take it to the bank.
2. Houston (9-7) - The Texans, if QB Matt Schaub is healthy, have a potent offense and a rapidly improving defense. Steve Slaton was a revelation at RB last year, and he is ready and able to make the jump to top ten talent at the position this year. Andre Johnson is the best WR in the league, and TE Owen Daniels and WR Kevin Walter are great secondary options. This team might end up surprising a number of people this year.
3. Tennessee (9-7) - Kerry Collins ... Vince Young ... no WR to speak of ... and they lost their best player (DT Albert Hanesworth) to free agency. Yes, as good as they looked last year, I see a step back this year. Collins is old, has nobody to throw to, and they will have to pass more this year with the defense likely regressing a bit.
4. Jacksonville (8-8) - This division will be tight, and all four teams might be in contention as late as weeks 15 and 16 this year. The Jags will see improvements from Jones-Drew and Garrard, but they still feel like the low man on the totem pole to me.
AFC West:
1. San Diego (11-5) - If only Norv Turner wasn't the coach here I'd feel a lot better, because there is a ton to like. LaDanian Tomlinson seems primed for one last gasp of superstardom. Phillip Rivers is a superstar. Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson, as well as Darren Sproles, are all world talents and game breakers. The defense has a ton of talent, and Ron Rivera is calling plays now (which Bears fans can tell you is a great thing). This team might underachieve during the regular season, but once again you don't want to face them in the playoffs. They are so talented. Just ask Colts fans.
2. Kansas City (7-9) - Cassel will have to prove he isn't a one year wonder who was throwing to Moss and Welker, and Larry Johnson will have to prove he has something left in the tank. This team has a number of up and coming players, but it'll take it more than one year to gel.
3. Denver (7-9) - Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver. If Knowshon Moreno is ever healthy they will be a little better, but Brandon Marshall may be a lost cause. The defense, also, will need more than one year to go from a joke to respectable.
4. Oakland (5-11) - If you can't tell I don't have much hopes for the AFC west. Oakland has a QB in JaMarcus Russell who may never make "the jump." They have a cast of nobodies at WR, and a potentially great RB in Darren McFadden. If Oakland has a good defense they would be wise to run, run, run (they have depth too with Fargas and Bush). But they need to get the head coach to stop punching his assistants. It's bad for team chemistry.
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia (12-4) - The Eagles have a deep group at the skill positions, with options at RB and WR. McNabb should be able to put together another good year, and the defense, while it will miss the late Jim Johnson quite a bit, should still be able to come up with big plenty of big plays. The pick up of Michael Vick was an example of a high risk - high reward play: if Vick is able to play a role in the offense it is likely he will help the team score, but on the flip side he may be more of a distraction than a boon to the team. Johnson's death is the biggest reason not to like the Eagles this year, but McNabb now has more options than ever before. They are the pick in the tough NFC East.
2. NY Giants (10-6) - Eli Manning just received the most outrageous contract in quite some time, and he still has nobody to throw to. I may be proven wrong, but right now his career quarter back rating is worse than Jon Kitna's. I just don't see throwing all that money on a player who, at the time of his Super Bowl performance, had the same QB numbers as Rex Grossman. Furthermore, if you look at his numbers last year with Plaxico Burress and then without it becomes obvious: without Plaxico Eli is very average. The Giants still have a good defense and a good running game. If they play it smart they can still make the playoffs, but if they try to pretend Eli is anything other than an average QB they will be in trouble.3. Dallas (8-8) - Dallas burned me last year, and all the issues with the defense and WR core this preseason haven't endeared me to them. Romo is good, and they have a number of good backs, but Wade Phillips is still the coach, and Jerry Jones is still dictator. They might be a game or two better than this, but then again they might be a game or two worse.
4. Washington (6-10) - It's doubtful that any team in this division finishes with this poor of a record, but the Redskins are the odds on favorites to do it if one of them does. Jason Campbell, by all reports, is a mess. Jim Zorn is waiting to be fired. Clinton Portis is getting older, as is Santana Moss. Plus, when was the last time that the big ticket free agent actually paid off? If you guessed Reggie White I'd have to agree with you.
NFC North:
1. Chicago (13-3) - Yes, I just said 13-3. Have you watched the Bears in the preseason? I know it's just "doesn't even count" football, but seriously, how can you not love this team? Cutler looks sharp, is making smart throws, and can hit a laser beam throw down field without blinking on the run with two three hundred pound linemen bearing down on him. Forte might catch 90 balls out of the backfield, and is looking great with the defense unable to put 8 men in the box every play. Our defense looks rejuvenated. Before I watched some games this was a three team race in my mind; after watching them I'd sold on the Bears. I am prepared to buy three more Bears jerseys so I can just rotate seven each week. Right now I have Walter Payton, Brian Urlacher, Devin Hester and Jay Cutler. I'd like to add Mike Singletary for sure. Other suggestions?
2. Green Bay (11-5) - The Packers have one of footballs top ten QBs in Aaron Rodgers, a good
running game, great receivers, and the switch to the 3-4 defense is reportedly going amazingly well. All they needed was a little extra motivation ... you know, something to really piss them off ... something to make all of them feel betrayed, and to unite their fans behind Rodgers and move past that other guy. What could do that? Hmm.........3. Minnesota (9-7) - ... I know! Brett Favre could continue towards his goal of breaking MJ's record for most un-retirements! I mean, seriously, at least Jordan waited a year and a half to unretire during his shortest stint. I thought the Vikes were contenders, but I just can't see this Favre thing ending well. Too much bad karma. Plus, the Williams boys could be lost for four games, which would put their defense in the tank. I'm just excited for when Favre retires again
this offseason so he can join Mike Holmgren wherever Mike is coaching next year.4. Detroit (3-13) - I sense a three game improvement from last year Lions fans!
NFC South:
1. New Orleans (11-5) - This division is also tough, but the Saints have perhaps the leagues second most potent offense, and it could be the most potent if Reggie Bush ever becomes anything other than the answer to the question "who is the most hated QB shoving RB at Notre Dame." The defense, under the tutelage of Greg Williams, should be improved. And don't forget that Brees put up those insane numbers last year with his number one receiver, Marques Colston, out most of the year.
2. Atlanta (10-6) - Atlanta had a very easy schedule last year, and has a hard one this year. Michael Turner will almost certainly regress a bit, but the addition of Tony Gonzalez at TE should help cover that. If everything goes well they should be in contention for a Wild Card spot, but I think they'll end up falling just short.
3. Carolina (8-8) - Deangelo Williams will not come close to last year, and Jonathan Stewart is already hurt. I feel bad for Steve Smith since Jake Delhomme is throwing him the ball. Delhomme was shot before he laid the biggest egg ever in the playoffs last year. The defense should be alright, but in this division, playing a first place schedule, they are in for a regression.
4. Tampa Bay (5-11) - Let's just say that change isn't always easy. And let's also say that I loved Byron Leftwich when he was at Marshall and leave it at that.
NFC West:
1. San Fransico (9-7) - That's all the better you should have to be to win this division, and I'm drinking the Mike Singletary Kool-Aid. Defense + running the ball + discipline = winning football. Shaun Hill is a competent QB to boot.
2. Seattle (7-9) - They are due for a bounce back if, and this is a big if, Matt Hasselbeck has something, anything left in the tank. But this division, bad as it is, won't be won by this team. I wonder if Chris Berman will pick them to win the NFC again...
3. Arizona (7-9) - Let's just say that I'm also skeptical that Kurt Warner can stay healthy for another 16 game season. Let's also throw in there that this defense isn't as good as it looked in the playoffs. And, just for fun, let's remember that Super Bowl losers almost never make the playoffs the next year. Even New England missed it last year.
4. St. Louis (5-11) - I hear Football Outsiders telling me they are the most likely team to see a huge win increase this year. But that's assuming that Marc Bulger didn't die a few years back. I think he might have. St. Louis may need a new QB, and until that is resolved they are in trouble.
So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York
Which would give us the following first round matchups:
AFC - San Diego over Houston, Baltimore over Indianapolis
NFC - New Orleans over New York, Green Bay over San Francisco
And the following second round matchups:
AFC - New England over Baltimore, Pittsburgh over San Diego
NFC - Chicago over Green Bay, Philadelphia over New Orleans
And the following championship game matchups:
AFC - New England over Pittsburgh
NFC - Chicago over Philadelphia
And the following Super Bowl result:
New England 24 - Chicago 27
You're darn right I just picked the Bears to win it all. With a QB on board for the first time since
Sid Luckman, doesn't it just feel right? Man am I ready for some football...
Saturday, August 22, 2009
The Problem? It's Not Just This Year.
It's been two weeks since I've posted. Life's been getting rather hectic, between work and an impending move, but hopefully I'll be writing more again. I certainly have plenty of things to write about. The NFL season is coming up, my fantasy football draft is just around the corner (just ranked my top 200 last night), I've seen a couple of thought provoking movies, and it's time to look at the next ten players on my NBA's 50 Greatest list.
All that said, today I'm going to look at the Chicago Cubs. Following their post All-Star break surge, it was looking as if the team had found a pulse and was going to stay in contention. That surge, and that feeling, however, ended up being little more than a mirage. The other day I left my brother a voicemail simply stating "the Cubs are dead and gone. I attended their funeral today, and they are buried, in the ground, and I preformed the last rites. It's time for football now."
That sentiment has been looking even more correct as, in the past two days, the Cubs have continued to lose and the Cardinals, Rockies, Giants and other Wild Card "contenders" have continued to win. My boss told me two days ago that he couldn't believe that I, of all people, had given up hope. But it doesn't take much common sense to realize that this year is not the year. We would need a Rockies like streak of winning 24 of 25 (or something in that neighborhood) to pull this off, and this team just doesn't seem to have any consistency of that nature in it.
I'm ok with the fact we didn't put it together this year. In fact, it makes some sense. Last year we had a 97 win team, the best team in the NL during the regular season, but when we came to the post season we had an epic collapse. As you might have expected Jim Hendry's reaction was to panic, and he over compensated, shuffling our bullpen yet again, dealing DeRosa, and signing Milton Bradley. Those moves did not pay dividends this year, particularly the additions of Kevin Gregg as closer, Bradley as our right fielder, and the gaping hole at 2nd left in DeRosa's wake.
What I am not sure that Cubs fans realize is that this is not just contained to this year. Even yesterday's news that the Cubs have finally sold to the Ricketts family can't change the fact that this franchise is in serious trouble in the long term. This team was built to win, and win now, and its' window of opportunity is closing fast. Furthermore, there is very little flexibility in the near future for the roster to be improved. To fully understand the issues facing the Cubbies you have to look at the whole picture, position by position (all contract information comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts):
First Base: Derrick Lee is under contract for only one more year, 2010, at $13,000,000. After a very slow start to the year Lee picked it up and almost single handily kept the team in contention while seemingly everyone else was injured. The danger here is that Lee is getting older, and the temptation will be to sign him to an extension this off season because he had a decent year and in a clubhouse leader. The Cubs have to resist that temptation and allow Lee to play out his contract, unless he is willing to take a substantial paycut, which is unlikely. Lee is good, but he isn't a superstar and he is being paid like one due to his 2005 season which was an aberration.
Second Base: Who plays here? Jeff Baker has done alright since being acquired, but he is probably not a long term answer. Aaron Miles has been a complete and total bust, and is still under contract for another $2.7 million next year. The Cubs should just cut him and take their losses, unless some team is dumb enough to trade for him. Beyond those two the Cubs have both Mike Fontenot, who can't hit above .230 consistently, and Andres Blanco, who can't even hit that. Neither of these two will be eligible for arbitration during the off season which helps a bit from a salary standpoint. Baker might be eligible depending on how much time he ends up with in the big leagues this year. At any rate, none of these four seem to be the answer.
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez is under contact through 2010 with a player option for 2011 and a team option for 2012. With the health issues he had this year it is hard to envision Ramirez declining the option for 2011, but if he has a good year next year, and if the economy is better, he very well might. Ramirez is an All-Star player, and probably the best expensive position player on the roster, but he seems to be injured pretty frequently, and the Cubs have no options behind him who can both hit and field. His salary is roughly $15 million a year, which is a fair price when he's healthy.
Shortstop: Ryan Theriot will be eligible for arbitration this year, which will almost assuredly take his salary from the half a million he made this year into the two to three million dollar range. At that price he's still a decent bargain. So the Cubs are set at shortstop as well as third, when healthy.
Catcher: Giovanni Soto has one more year without being up for arbitration, so his salary should be quite reasonable next year, depending on which Soto shows up for 2010: the All-Star slugger of 2008 or the injured catcher who struggled to hit his weight in 2009. Koyie Hill will be close to arbitration, but shouldn't make much even if he qualifies. He's not that good. If Soto does not return to his 2008 form next year the club could be looking for a new catcher by 2011.
Left Field: Alphonso Soriano, as I explored in this previous post, is almost assuredly on the down hill slide of his career. He heated up ever so briefly following the All Star break, but as our highest paid player he is a total bust. What makes that worse is that we are on the hook for him through 2014, and the contract is back loaded (as so many which were signed while the team was up for sale were). The long and the short of it is that we owe Soriano $18,000,000 a year from 2010 through 2014. Nobody will want to take his contract on, but even if they do he has a full no trade clause. He can't play defense, he can't hit much anymore, he can't run much anymore ... on the short list of worst contracts in the history of baseball, Soranio's is a contender for the top spot.
Center Field: Kosuke Fukudome has another of the back loaded contracts given during the "for sale" era. He made only $6 million in 2008, but then made $11.5 million this year, and will make $13 million in 2010 and $13.5 million in 2011. Fukudome seems to be a good guy, and he gives top effort, but when we are telling ourselves "at least he's been better this year" we can't forget that "better" still leaves us with a .270 hitter at best. He's not worth the money, plain and simple, and he also has a no-trade clause so we can't easily deal him (although, once again, it's not likely anyone would want him). Additionally, his best position is right field, which he can't play for the foreseeable future due to our next player on the list.
Right Field: I still stand by this signing to a point. We needed another big bat, and Bradley's did make the most sense for the team. I don't know anyone who could have, or did, project the massive fall off in his power and ability to hit left handed, but he has come around and will finish the year with decent numbers. His contract is another one that is massively back loaded; he made only $5 million this year, but will make $9 million in 2010 and then $10 million in 2011. If there are some fluky injury issues at the end of this year the 2011 year becomes a club option for $12 million with a $2 million buy out if they choose not to pick the option up, but unless Milton tears an ACL arguing with an umpire soon it's not likely that will happen. But, hey, at least he doesn't have a no-trade clause!
Pitchers: Carlos Zambrano leads the way with a contract that will pay him more than $17 million a year for every year through 2012. There is a vesting player option in 2013, which shifts around a bit depending on his finish in the Cy Young standings in 2011 and 2012. Of all the Cubs big contacts this one is probably the most fair according to market value. Beyond Zambrano you have Ryan Dempster, who's back loaded contract goes from $9 million this year to $12.5 million next, $13.5 million the year after, and $14 million in 2012 if he exercises his player option. Ted Lilly will be a free agent after next year, the final year of his four year $40 million dollar contract which was also massively back loaded ($5 million in 2007, $12 million in 2010). Lilly also has a no-trade clause, but much like Dempster and Zambrano, it is unlikely we'd trade him. Rich Harden will be a free agent after this year, and the market will determine if he is on the Cubs radar at all, although he has pitched very well as of late. Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall, and Tom Gorzelanny will all be back competing for a spot (or two, depending on Harden) in the rotation. Samardzija is under contract through 2011 with options for 2012 and 2013, while Marshall and Gorzelanny should be arbitration eligible. As for the bullpen, Gregg should be a free agent, and hopefully won't be back. Marmol will be eligible for arbitration and should see a pay raise (although not as much as he might have had he replicated the last two years this year). Angel Guzman also could be arbitration eligible and in line for a pay raise, and John Grabow will be a free agent, making the deal for he and Gorzelanny look even more questionable.
The point of all of this is to illustrate that this club is likely to get worse in the next few years, not better. This is especially likely next year. The back loaded contracts, which were a necessary evil as the Tribune Co., and then Sam Zell drug their feet to sell the team, are coming home to roost. We have a number of players on no trade clauses, and very few of our big salaries are movable even in the best of circumstances. Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley will be our starting outfield next year, with only Bradley having much hope of being significantly better. Lee and Lilly are in contract years, and only Lilly should be considered for an off season extension. Ramirez will be back, but is an injury concern. Harden will probably be allowed to walk, and probably should be. Grabow could be brought back if the price is right, but Gregg should be shown the door as soon as he's done blowing his last save this year. Aaron Miles needs to go one way or the other.
"Wait 'til next year" has long been a rallying cry for the followers of the Chicago Cubs, but in this instance we might be better served saying "wait for a few more years ... or maybe more." We are getting old, and getting more expensive. The Soriano contract will continue to cripple us from a financial standpoint, as well as limiting our flexibility on the field. What do you do with a "superstar" who can't hit or field, but whom you also owe a ton of money over the next five years? Maybe Soranio turns it around next year, and our lineup rejuvenates into a top five lineup. Our pitching staff, if healthy, should be fine, but we also need a closer (although perhaps Guzman could do the job, or Marmol if he rediscovers his ability to throw strikes). One thing is for sure: Hendry and Piniella will have their hands full this winter ... but they also will have their hands tied.
All that said, today I'm going to look at the Chicago Cubs. Following their post All-Star break surge, it was looking as if the team had found a pulse and was going to stay in contention. That surge, and that feeling, however, ended up being little more than a mirage. The other day I left my brother a voicemail simply stating "the Cubs are dead and gone. I attended their funeral today, and they are buried, in the ground, and I preformed the last rites. It's time for football now."
That sentiment has been looking even more correct as, in the past two days, the Cubs have continued to lose and the Cardinals, Rockies, Giants and other Wild Card "contenders" have continued to win. My boss told me two days ago that he couldn't believe that I, of all people, had given up hope. But it doesn't take much common sense to realize that this year is not the year. We would need a Rockies like streak of winning 24 of 25 (or something in that neighborhood) to pull this off, and this team just doesn't seem to have any consistency of that nature in it.
I'm ok with the fact we didn't put it together this year. In fact, it makes some sense. Last year we had a 97 win team, the best team in the NL during the regular season, but when we came to the post season we had an epic collapse. As you might have expected Jim Hendry's reaction was to panic, and he over compensated, shuffling our bullpen yet again, dealing DeRosa, and signing Milton Bradley. Those moves did not pay dividends this year, particularly the additions of Kevin Gregg as closer, Bradley as our right fielder, and the gaping hole at 2nd left in DeRosa's wake.
What I am not sure that Cubs fans realize is that this is not just contained to this year. Even yesterday's news that the Cubs have finally sold to the Ricketts family can't change the fact that this franchise is in serious trouble in the long term. This team was built to win, and win now, and its' window of opportunity is closing fast. Furthermore, there is very little flexibility in the near future for the roster to be improved. To fully understand the issues facing the Cubbies you have to look at the whole picture, position by position (all contract information comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts):
First Base: Derrick Lee is under contract for only one more year, 2010, at $13,000,000. After a very slow start to the year Lee picked it up and almost single handily kept the team in contention while seemingly everyone else was injured. The danger here is that Lee is getting older, and the temptation will be to sign him to an extension this off season because he had a decent year and in a clubhouse leader. The Cubs have to resist that temptation and allow Lee to play out his contract, unless he is willing to take a substantial paycut, which is unlikely. Lee is good, but he isn't a superstar and he is being paid like one due to his 2005 season which was an aberration.
Second Base: Who plays here? Jeff Baker has done alright since being acquired, but he is probably not a long term answer. Aaron Miles has been a complete and total bust, and is still under contract for another $2.7 million next year. The Cubs should just cut him and take their losses, unless some team is dumb enough to trade for him. Beyond those two the Cubs have both Mike Fontenot, who can't hit above .230 consistently, and Andres Blanco, who can't even hit that. Neither of these two will be eligible for arbitration during the off season which helps a bit from a salary standpoint. Baker might be eligible depending on how much time he ends up with in the big leagues this year. At any rate, none of these four seem to be the answer.
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez is under contact through 2010 with a player option for 2011 and a team option for 2012. With the health issues he had this year it is hard to envision Ramirez declining the option for 2011, but if he has a good year next year, and if the economy is better, he very well might. Ramirez is an All-Star player, and probably the best expensive position player on the roster, but he seems to be injured pretty frequently, and the Cubs have no options behind him who can both hit and field. His salary is roughly $15 million a year, which is a fair price when he's healthy.
Shortstop: Ryan Theriot will be eligible for arbitration this year, which will almost assuredly take his salary from the half a million he made this year into the two to three million dollar range. At that price he's still a decent bargain. So the Cubs are set at shortstop as well as third, when healthy.
Catcher: Giovanni Soto has one more year without being up for arbitration, so his salary should be quite reasonable next year, depending on which Soto shows up for 2010: the All-Star slugger of 2008 or the injured catcher who struggled to hit his weight in 2009. Koyie Hill will be close to arbitration, but shouldn't make much even if he qualifies. He's not that good. If Soto does not return to his 2008 form next year the club could be looking for a new catcher by 2011.
Left Field: Alphonso Soriano, as I explored in this previous post, is almost assuredly on the down hill slide of his career. He heated up ever so briefly following the All Star break, but as our highest paid player he is a total bust. What makes that worse is that we are on the hook for him through 2014, and the contract is back loaded (as so many which were signed while the team was up for sale were). The long and the short of it is that we owe Soriano $18,000,000 a year from 2010 through 2014. Nobody will want to take his contract on, but even if they do he has a full no trade clause. He can't play defense, he can't hit much anymore, he can't run much anymore ... on the short list of worst contracts in the history of baseball, Soranio's is a contender for the top spot.
Center Field: Kosuke Fukudome has another of the back loaded contracts given during the "for sale" era. He made only $6 million in 2008, but then made $11.5 million this year, and will make $13 million in 2010 and $13.5 million in 2011. Fukudome seems to be a good guy, and he gives top effort, but when we are telling ourselves "at least he's been better this year" we can't forget that "better" still leaves us with a .270 hitter at best. He's not worth the money, plain and simple, and he also has a no-trade clause so we can't easily deal him (although, once again, it's not likely anyone would want him). Additionally, his best position is right field, which he can't play for the foreseeable future due to our next player on the list.
Right Field: I still stand by this signing to a point. We needed another big bat, and Bradley's did make the most sense for the team. I don't know anyone who could have, or did, project the massive fall off in his power and ability to hit left handed, but he has come around and will finish the year with decent numbers. His contract is another one that is massively back loaded; he made only $5 million this year, but will make $9 million in 2010 and then $10 million in 2011. If there are some fluky injury issues at the end of this year the 2011 year becomes a club option for $12 million with a $2 million buy out if they choose not to pick the option up, but unless Milton tears an ACL arguing with an umpire soon it's not likely that will happen. But, hey, at least he doesn't have a no-trade clause!
Pitchers: Carlos Zambrano leads the way with a contract that will pay him more than $17 million a year for every year through 2012. There is a vesting player option in 2013, which shifts around a bit depending on his finish in the Cy Young standings in 2011 and 2012. Of all the Cubs big contacts this one is probably the most fair according to market value. Beyond Zambrano you have Ryan Dempster, who's back loaded contract goes from $9 million this year to $12.5 million next, $13.5 million the year after, and $14 million in 2012 if he exercises his player option. Ted Lilly will be a free agent after next year, the final year of his four year $40 million dollar contract which was also massively back loaded ($5 million in 2007, $12 million in 2010). Lilly also has a no-trade clause, but much like Dempster and Zambrano, it is unlikely we'd trade him. Rich Harden will be a free agent after this year, and the market will determine if he is on the Cubs radar at all, although he has pitched very well as of late. Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall, and Tom Gorzelanny will all be back competing for a spot (or two, depending on Harden) in the rotation. Samardzija is under contract through 2011 with options for 2012 and 2013, while Marshall and Gorzelanny should be arbitration eligible. As for the bullpen, Gregg should be a free agent, and hopefully won't be back. Marmol will be eligible for arbitration and should see a pay raise (although not as much as he might have had he replicated the last two years this year). Angel Guzman also could be arbitration eligible and in line for a pay raise, and John Grabow will be a free agent, making the deal for he and Gorzelanny look even more questionable.
The point of all of this is to illustrate that this club is likely to get worse in the next few years, not better. This is especially likely next year. The back loaded contracts, which were a necessary evil as the Tribune Co., and then Sam Zell drug their feet to sell the team, are coming home to roost. We have a number of players on no trade clauses, and very few of our big salaries are movable even in the best of circumstances. Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley will be our starting outfield next year, with only Bradley having much hope of being significantly better. Lee and Lilly are in contract years, and only Lilly should be considered for an off season extension. Ramirez will be back, but is an injury concern. Harden will probably be allowed to walk, and probably should be. Grabow could be brought back if the price is right, but Gregg should be shown the door as soon as he's done blowing his last save this year. Aaron Miles needs to go one way or the other.
"Wait 'til next year" has long been a rallying cry for the followers of the Chicago Cubs, but in this instance we might be better served saying "wait for a few more years ... or maybe more." We are getting old, and getting more expensive. The Soriano contract will continue to cripple us from a financial standpoint, as well as limiting our flexibility on the field. What do you do with a "superstar" who can't hit or field, but whom you also owe a ton of money over the next five years? Maybe Soranio turns it around next year, and our lineup rejuvenates into a top five lineup. Our pitching staff, if healthy, should be fine, but we also need a closer (although perhaps Guzman could do the job, or Marmol if he rediscovers his ability to throw strikes). One thing is for sure: Hendry and Piniella will have their hands full this winter ... but they also will have their hands tied.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Almost There...
It's hard to believe that NFL training camps are in full swing, with the start of the regular season about a month away. I, personally, couldn't be any more excited. The NFL is the premiere sport in the USA right now, and the product it presents makes it not even close. The start of the NFL season means a number of things to me: time to draft my fantasy football teams, fall is on the way, time to bust out my Walter Payton and Brian Urlacher Jerseys, time to cherish my rare Sundays off, and time to think about my annual preseason predictions.I'm not quite there yet (I need to give some more thought to the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC East and the NFC South, among others), but soon, very soon there will be a huge post on this blog breaking down each of the divisions, culminating in my Super Bowl predictions. I've been pretty accurate the last three years, so we'll see if I can keep that up.
As for today, this article by Don Banks of SI.com got me thinking about the Bears in particular. It seems that Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith have decided they are now a pass first team. This makes me cry inside, and makes me a bit upset on the outside. The Bears, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, are teams with a tradition built on running the ball, playing amazing defense, and controlling the clock. Basically, you grind the opponent into submission, and win the game on the line of scrimmage.
It's a beautiful way to play football, one with its roots in the oldest days of the NFL. Adding Jay
Cutler gives the Bears an option that they haven't had in my lifetime: the option to throw down field and score quickly. If any of our wide receivers develop into starting quality players (and that's a big if), we will have the ability to put points on the board which we've seemingly always lacked. Greg Olsen and Matt Forte, our starting tight end and running back respectively, are excellent receiving options in their own right, but for Cutler to be truly effective he will need at least one possession receiver to move the chains, and a speed guy to stretch the defense.Maybe Earl Bennent, Cutler's old college teammate from Vandy, will be the move the chains possession guy. Perhaps Devin Hester, with his game breaking speed, will be the deep threat that takes the safety with him deep. If it works out that way the Bears will have the makings of a potent offense. But the biggest reason they need to stay true to their grind it out, eat up the clock, control time of possession roots has nothing to do with the offense. It is because of the defense.
Two years ago at this time we had an amazing defense. It had just carried us to a Super Bowl appearance, and we were poised to go back. But the defense got old, and quick. Brian Urlacher's back and neck got in the way, Tommy Harris lost his burst and couldn't stay healthy, and the entire defensive line suddenly was incapable of getting to the QB. The way that Lovie's defense (the famed "Tampa 2") works, it is essential that the front four get pressure on the QB by themselves. If the front four can't get the job done the defense must send a blitzing linebacker or
safety, leaving a hole in the coverage. In 2005-2006 the front four got pressure, and the Bears had an excellent defense that was capable of winning games without much help from the offense. The past two years, 2007 and 2008, the opposite has been true; the defense can't get the opposing offense off the field.If the front four can take care of business then the defense will have the chance to be lethal again, but even if that happens the defense is getting older. Charles Tillman, one of our starting cornerbacks, is already out with back surgery. Nathan Vasher, our other starting CB, has seen his level of play slip greatly the past two years. We lack experience at the safety positions without Mike Brown, who couldn't stay on the field when he was here. Our linebackers, headed by Urlacher and Lance Briggs, also has seen better days. Even on the defensive line we see the age, as our top defensive ends, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, aren't getting any younger. We are getting older everywhere, and the best way to keep an old defense fresh is for the offense to control the time of possession.
The long and the short of it is that I disagree with Angelo and Smith's revelation that we need to
pass first, then run. Of course, if you know my feelings on these two, you'll note that I don't agree with them too often. At least Angelo had the guts to pull the trigger on the Cutler trade this year; in years past he refused to because we already had "a great QB," no matter who our QB was. Still, Angelo's supposed strength, draft evaluation and execution, has been lacking greatly, while Smith has been exposed as a poor game manager who ran a good defensive coordinator (Ron Rivera) out of town, and then replaced him with a nobody (Bob Babich) who Lovie himself now has to take over for. Add in the nightmare that has been Ron Turner's tenure with the team (second tenure at that), and the decision making of management has to be questioned.All that said, the future is bright now in Hallas Hall, although not quite as bright as it could have been. Angelo and Smith squandered the prime of one of the NFL's best defenses, and now they must try to make up for lost time. The right thing to do would be to work through this as a multi-year rebuilding process which has been spurred along by the acquisition of Cutler. But Smith and Angelo can't afford to rebuild; if they do they will be watching the fruits of their labor from another team, or from the unemployment line. To that end, if they really want a chance to win, the way to do it is by controlling the clock, allowing the defense the best chance to stay fresh and have an impact. Listening to Smith and Angelo talk about how they "disagree" with the experts
who are questioning their talent at WR is an awful lot like listening to them argue that Grossman and Orton were the answers at QB. Nobody likes to admit they have holes in the team, but pretending you don't doesn't change reality, it just gets you into situations where you hold on to the wrong player for the wrong reasons. What Bears' management needs to do is be happy with the pick up of Cutler, but acknowledge that it is a work in progress. They need to game plan to help the defense be all it can be, and find ways to cut down on Matt Forte's touches so that he doesn't burn out in three years. Cutler needs to become an on-field coordinator, which he can be in time, so that Ron Turner's role is limited. If the Bears can do all this then they should be the favorites to win the division. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: I'm ready for some football.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
My Mind Is Blown...
What a weekend. After Friday night's show, which rocked from the opening with "Bartender" all the way through the final encore of "All Along The Watchtower," now I can die in peace. Dave Matthews Band put on a show Friday that has to be among the best they've ever done. The crowd was electric from the opening chords, and the intensity never waned, even when the new songs were busted out. This concert solidified my opinion that Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King is on par with the first three albums DMB put out. New songs, old songs, it didn't matter: the band was going at full throttle, and they delivered the goods. While Saturday night's show was a bit of a letdown (but, honestly, how do you follow a night like Friday?), the whole production was amazing, and well worth the money. Now, onto a few articles that are well worth the read:
- This article is about Rickey Henderson's Hall of Fame speech. Interesting to see how he practiced and practiced to get this right. That kind of dedication is why Henderson was among the best ever.
- A good read here about Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland Atheletics, and the man behind Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball." Beane and the A's have fallen on hard times as of late, but they still run as a model franchise for mid-market teams to emulate. Still, I can't really envision a movie covering this topic. Even with Brad Pitt in the lead it seems as if it would be a bit dry at best, and a distortion of the book at the worst.
- Eugene Robinson is an excellent opinion writer for The Washington Post, one of two remaining powerhouse newspapers in America. Here, he articulately and accurately confronts the GOP over the joke of their "opposition" to the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor. Well done, Mr. Robinson, well done.
- Howard Bryant writes in detail about the tragedy of David Ortiz testing positive for PEDs in 2003. Bryant's view makes one wonder what really happened; is Ortiz an innocent who got tripped up by something from GNC, or is he really just another in the long line of hypocrites in sports? Only time will tell.
- This article is about Rickey Henderson's Hall of Fame speech. Interesting to see how he practiced and practiced to get this right. That kind of dedication is why Henderson was among the best ever.
- A good read here about Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland Atheletics, and the man behind Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball." Beane and the A's have fallen on hard times as of late, but they still run as a model franchise for mid-market teams to emulate. Still, I can't really envision a movie covering this topic. Even with Brad Pitt in the lead it seems as if it would be a bit dry at best, and a distortion of the book at the worst.
- Eugene Robinson is an excellent opinion writer for The Washington Post, one of two remaining powerhouse newspapers in America. Here, he articulately and accurately confronts the GOP over the joke of their "opposition" to the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor. Well done, Mr. Robinson, well done.
- Howard Bryant writes in detail about the tragedy of David Ortiz testing positive for PEDs in 2003. Bryant's view makes one wonder what really happened; is Ortiz an innocent who got tripped up by something from GNC, or is he really just another in the long line of hypocrites in sports? Only time will tell.
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