Tuesday, June 30, 2009

The Age 33 Fall Off

I just read an article on SI.com by Joe Posnanski in which he and Bill James banter back and forth regarding the way players fall off statistically when they reach 33. This year there are three "superstars" who have seemed to prove this true: Alphonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. This makes all the sense in the world to me, as Soriano has taken his sub-par performances of the past two years, and multiplied them ten fold. Soriano is the unanswerable question in the Cubs lineup. Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports baseball guy) is right when he says the Cubs just need to "get over themselves." Still, the question is what should they do with Soriano.

You can't have a left fielder, making $18,000,000 a year for the next five years, hitting .235 with an OPS of just .733. You just can't. On the flip side, when you are the proud owner of the worst contract in the history of professional sports, it's equally impossible to move him anywhere. I'm not sure what Hendry and Piniella are planning on doing, but I do know we have one heck of a left field platoon waiting to be called upon: Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox will both bring an improved bat to left. Will there defense be gold glove caliber? No, but then again neither is Soriano's. The best thing Soriano brings to the team right now, his cannon of an arm, is canceled out by the awful routes he takes to balls and the lackadaisical manner in which he patrols left. At least Hoffpauir and Fox would give maximum effort. With all this in mind, here are some solutions to the Soriano problem:

1) Send Soriano to the DL with some sort of issue picked from a hat
I really don't care if he "pulls" a hamstring, "strains" his back, or takes a page from Detroit's playbook for the D-Train: just get him to have 15 days of peace while we have 15 days of a real lead off option and hustle.

2) Bench Soriano for a period of time
I'll call this the Jimmy Rollins plan: you take your struggling "superstar" and you keep him a part of the team, but allow him to watch live as the team moves on without him. Ideally he comes back with a new found desire to be a part of the team, and things work out well. Or, in the case of Detroit, he'll just come back with a new haircut.

3) Trade him
I know, this sounds insane. It is insane; insanely impossible. For the Cubs to trade Soriano they would have to A) take next to nothing back in return, and B) Pay the vast majority of his remaining salary. There is always the chance we could pay less in salary if we were willing to take back an awful contract in return, but off the top of my head I can't really think of any equally nauseating contracts. Maybe we could deal him to the Nationals for a player to be named later, agreeing to pay $10,000,000 a year for the next five years. They want "star power" and we need to get rid of our "star" ... who knows.

4) Get him to agree to a buyout
This is even more unlikely, in all probability, but there is precedent in the NBA for a "star" player agreeing to a buyout when it is obvious to him that the other option is rotting on the bench. Perhaps Soriano will feel the same way if Hendry and Piniella come to him and say "look, this was a mistake for all of us, we're gonna have to bench you, because you're hitting like a AA player." Maybe then Soriano's pride (assuming he has some) will kick in and he'll agree to, say, $50,000,000 upfront to go away. This option would require the sale of the club be complete, however.

5) Release him outright
This would be a multi-step dance. You'd place him on irrevocable waivers, and hope and pray some team picks him up. Then you'd make it clear to every team in baseball that he's available for next to nothing and you'd be willing to pick up at least half his remaining contract. Then you'd offer him the buyout. Then you'd just release him and eat the $18,000,000 per year remaining. But at least you'd be done with him.

6) You go "Celtic Pride"
Only in the opposite way: instead of the opposing team's superstar to give your team the best chance to win you are kidnapping your team's "superstar" to give your team the best chance to win. You'd have to take him, preferably, to a non-extradition treaty country where you'd have to live out the rest of your years as fugitives. But, if the Cubs win because of it, you'd be remembered as heroes eventually. And General Hummel would be proud (skip to the 40 second mark).

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