NFL Week Picks - Week 12 - Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up: 12-2

Season against the spread: 93-63-4
Season straight up: 112-47-1

Things I'm Thankful For: My fiance, my family, and her family who have welcomed me with such open arms. My job, which challenges me, pushes me to the limit daily, but never ceases to fulfill me. The grace of God, which allows a sinner such as myself to feel the love of God. And those things, not in that order. In the sports world, I'm thankful for:
- a return to relevance from the IU Basketball Team (Go Hoosiers!)
- The 7-1 start by the Bears, at least allowing me to enjoy part of a football season with optimism
- Management at Wrigley who seem competent and driven to build a winner the right way
- A Bulls team that won't win it all, but gives its all every night.
- Having had the chance to watch MJ, the undisputed Greatest Of All Time across all sports.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with these picks. This may be the week. But somehow, some way I'm plugging along with an insanely great picks year. I suppose that is a small consolation prize for my awful fantasy football season.

On to the picks:

Thursday (Turkey Day) Games - The one Thursday of the year when NFL on Thursday DOES NOT suck:

Houston (-4) over Detroit - This year has been a major regression to the mean for the Lions. When they get a sane coach they have the talent to be tough.

Dallas (-3) over Washington - I'm with Bill Simmons: this is the game that Dallas wins, making their fans believe, before blowing it a few weeks down the road.

New England (-7) over NY Jets - I'm surprised there isn't more of a rumbling for Rex Ryan's job after this underwhelming year. Missing Gronk hurts, but I think that New England can cover here. I'd prefer the line be -6 or -5.5 however.

Sunday Early Games:

Bears (PK) over Minnesota - My how the might have fallen. The Bears are suddenly EVEN against the Vikes at home? That's what happens when you go out and get punched in the face and don't fight back, which is what happened on Monday night. It's been a long time since I turned a Bears game off as quickly as I did Monday. In fact, it may have never happened in my life. Monday there was a team that wanted to impose its' will on their opponent, and the Bears rolled over and died. If they lose this game the rest of the year becomes a defacto "Lovie's Last Stand."

Raiders (+10) over Cincinnati - I'll take Cincinnati straight up, but ten points is a lot to lay for a Raiders team that can score, even if it cannot win.

Pittsburgh (-1) over Cleveland - They only lost to Baltimore by three, and now they are barely a favorite against Cleveland? Gotta believe they still have enough D to win the game...

Indianapolis (-3) over Buffalo - Big game for the Bills: if they win they have a chance to sneak back into the playoff discussion. But Indy has been tough at home (4-1) and it feels like an "Andrew Luck leads the Colts to the playoffs" headline is more likely.

Denver (-11) over Kansas City - All my Manning hatred aside, right now he has to be the MVP. It is incredible what he's done coming back from the injury, surgeries, and a full year off. And playing outdoors for the first time. Also, it's easier not to hate him when he's not in Indy. Beside, him leaving cut the number of "Colts fans" by 50%. Thanks Peyton: I'm thankful for you taking your talents to the Rocky Mountains.

Seattle (-3) over Miami - I think Miami's goose may be cooked. Seattle is bad on the road, but Miami has looked a bit lost these last few weeks.

Atlanta (-2) over Tampa Bay - And now the betting has over adjusted, giving a 9-1 Falcons team not enough credit after a few weeks of giving them too much credit. I could see Tampa winning this game, but that line is too tasty.

Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville - I find myself again taking way too many favorites for my liking, but not really seeing the favorites as giving too much. I'm glad Chris Johnson could resurrect his season in time for my to trade him and get draft picks for next year. Yes, my friends, I've become Jerry Reinsdorf and waived the white flag.

Sunday Late Games:

Baltimore (-1) over San Diego - That doesn't feel right somehow...

EDIT: San Diego (+1) over Baltimore - I'll role with Norv, who has to be thankful that his owner and GM died a few years ago, and that he's been able to get away with propping them up Weekend at Bernie's style. After all, isn't that a more plausible explanation that believing that Chargers management actually thought it was a good idea to keep Norv as the head coach?

New Orleans (+1) over San Francisco - Yes, I'm sticking with this one. I think the 49ers played out of their mind last week, I KNOW that Harbaugh (great coach, sure) is creating a QB controversy by letting Kapernick get the first team reps, and I suspect that a win here puts the Saints back in the playoff discussion. Who Dat?

St. Louis (+1) over Arizona - Add Ken Wisenhunt to the list of probable fires after the year. Of course, Jeff Fisher's decision to go for two last week when it made no sense doesn't exactly give me faith in him. St. Louis seems to be more stable on offense right now, and they just played San Fran to a tie. Interesting that all three late games are one point spreads... you baited me into three straight dogs Vegas. Well done.

Sunday Night Game:

NY Giants (-3) over Green Bay - for the Bear's sake I hope this is right. The Giants have been abysmal lately, but this feels like a game they'd turn it on and win.

Monday Night Game:

Carolina (-1) over Philadelphia - I just think that the Eagles have completely quit on Andy Reid. And I will not be watching this game.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 11

Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 11-2-1

Season against the spread: 84-59-3
Season straight up: 100-45-1

Thursday night:

Buffalo (-1.5) over Miami - Miami's overrated right now

Sunday early:
Atlanta (-10) over Arizona - I picked the first loss right; I sense a bounce back
Dallas (-8) over Cleveland - This line is too high, but I can't take Cleveland ...
Green Bay (-3) over Detroit - I think Green Bay may win big here...
Cincinnati (-3) over Kansas City - The Bengals are a good bad team, the Chiefs a bad bad team.
NY Jets (+4) over St. Louis - if the Jets lose this one talk starts of Rex Ryan's job.
Washington (-4) over Philadelphia - only question left in Philly is if Andy Reid will survive the year
Tampa Bay (+1) over Carolina - Bucs are sneaky good right now
Houston (-16) over Jacksonville - I believe in the Texans...

Sunday late:
New Orleans (-5) over Oakland - back on the Saints bandwagon; playoffs aren't likely, but they have righted the ship
San Diego (+9) over Denver - Denver to win straight up, but the Norv's have to keep it close, right?
New England (-10) over Indianapolis - Luck isn't Manning yet, and the Colts pass D sucks...

Sunday night:
Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore - Even without Big Ben the Steelers look like they have the D to keep it close

Monday night:
Chicago (+7) over San Francisco - that hit on Cutler was cheap, and the officials helped blow that game. That said, please know that the incompetent offense is YET AGAIN a reason why Lovie needs to be let go. Two concussed QBs mean this line shouldn't be this big.

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 10

Due to a nasty cold that's kept me on my back for four days, only quick picks this week. The lines seemed much more difficult to pick this week, so perhaps Vegas is adjusting. Either way, I wouldn't take these to the bank with my cold holding me back.

Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 10-4

Season against the spread: 75-54-3
Season straight up: 89-43

Thursday Night:

Colts (-3.5) over Jags

Sunday Early:

Giants (-4) over Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6) over Miami
Minnesota (+3) over Detroit
New England (-13) over Buffalo
New Orleans (+1) over Atlanta
Tampa (-3) over San Diego
Denver (-4) over Carolina
Baltimore (-9) over Oakland

Sunday Late:
Seattle (-6) over NY Jets
Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-13) over St. Louis

Sunday Night:
Chicago (-1) over Houston

Monday Night:
Pittsburgh (-13) over Kansas City

2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 9 PLUS The Presidential Election

The NFL season hits the midway point, and usually I'd do a retrospective on the preseason picks, tout what I was right on, explain away what I was not so right on, but this year we have an election next Tuesday. And, I think I speak for everyone when I say: THANK GOD the endless barrage of campaign commercials, emails and news releases is about to be over. Republican, Democrat, or anywhere in between I don't know how anyone can feel anything but disgusted with this process after this year.

That said, this week I'll strive to intertwine my football picks with some insight about the presidential election, and then a straightforward pick. First, let's look at how I'm doing through 8 weeks with my picks:

Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 13-1

Season against the spread: 66-49-3
Season straight up: 79-39

In short, I continue to have my best year both against the spread and straight up. You'd expect to do better straight up than against the spread, if only because Vegas would be losing big if it was as easy (or easier) to pick winners against the spread as straight up. That said, the lines have seemed much easier to pick this year than in years past. On to this week's picks:

Thursday Night Game:

Chiefs (+7.5) over San Diego (Chargers straight up)

Okay, we already know that I split on this one because the game happened. Have I mentioned that Thursday night football absolutely, positively sucks yet? Seriously, can we get rid of the NFL "braintrust" who thought this was a good idea yet? My logic behind the (failed) decision to take KC plus the points? As bad as KC is, Norv Turner has a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. He is an awful coach, and I don't even feel a little bit bad about losing the pick against the spread. I can't ever take the Norv Turners as more than a TD favorite.

As far as the Presidential Election goes, Missouri, the "Bell-weather" state, is no longer a swing state. I was there earlier this year, and let me tell you, that state is as reliably Republican as California is Democrat. It's so conservative that there is an outside chance that Akin wins the Senate election after having an honest conversation about how he believes a woman's body can reject semen when being raped if it's "true rape." Yeah, that happened this year, and believe it or not, thanks to a moron hailing from my state it wasn't even the most ridiculous rape comment of the election by a Republican Candidate. 

Sunday Early Games

Denver (-4) over Cincinnati 

Now here's two states that are actual swing states. Before I discuss Colorado and Ohio, let's look at these teams. On the one hand we have a Bengals team that has been hot then cold. They have appeared easy to score on, but intermittently able to score with the best of them. On the other side of the field we have a Broncos team that has lost to the Falcons, the Texans and the Patriots. You know, three of the best teams in the NFL (we think).

As for the states of Colorado and Ohio, both states are heavily in play right now. Romney and Obama are both directing major resources to both states, and Ohio is likely to be the state that keeps us up the longest waiting for the votes to trickle in. If Romney doesn't take Colorado Obama will be on his way to a big victory. The odds on pick here is that Romney takes Colorado by a slim margin, but that Obama takes Ohio by 2-3%. If Obama does take Ohio the road becomes very difficult for Romney, and as such you'll see major hail mary attempts in that state (more on that to come)

Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland

I have a hunch that this will be a bounce back game for the beat up Ravens, although it should be mentioned that Weeden has been better than expected. Continuing with Ohio, I find it interesting that Romney is running ads about Chrysler taking  jobs overseas, which Chrysler execs are quick to discount. That's the type of Hail Mary ads you should be happy to be avoiding if you live in a non-swing state that's being (comparatively) ignored. Don't get me wrong, we are getting plenty of ads here in Hoosier land, but nothing compared with what's blasting Ohio.

Green Bay (-10) over Arizona

Wisconsin is supposedly a swing state. It's not. The dirty secret is that Paul Ryan isn't nearly as popular across the state as Romney would like you to believe. He's a Congressman; therefore, he needs to be popular in a small part of the state. He's not a Senator or Governor. Expect Obama to take Wisconsin by 4-5% and Romney to take Arizona going away. Oh, the game? I see a fifth straight loss for the Cardinals, and the Pack continuing to come on.

Chicago (-3.5) over Tennessee

I can't believe this spread is this low. But, again, after doing everything they could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last week and falling just short, the Bears may be who we have known them to be through the Lovie era: a maddeningly inconsistent team on offense buttressed by a all world defense and special teams. I hope that Cutler isn't hurt, but I suspect he is. Winning this game is essential given the remaining 8 games on the schedule, none of which could be considered a gimmy. As for the election, Illinois is solid blue, Tennessee solid red.

Indianapolis (+3) over Miami

The winner of this game is solidly in the drivers seat for a playoff appearance. While Miami has the far superior defense, I'll take Luck at home getting points. As for the election, the state of Indiana inexplicably went blue in 2008, which was pretty much the only shock of the night for me. Let's just say that I won't be shocked again: the state is back to being it's crazy conservative self. When you look at the stretch of blue you'll see on election night from the north east, through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, Indiana will stand out.

Florida? The bane of the 2000 election will be less exciting this time. Due to a continued jobs and housing crisis you can put this state in Romney's ledger pretty easy. If Florida doesn't swing to Romney by 4-5% you can expect a long night for him. If, however, Florida does go to the GOP candidate quickly and decisively it might be an indicator that state polls have been off for the last few months. Florida should go to Romney, but how easily and quickly it does will go a long way to telling us what kind of night it will be.

Washington (-3) over Carolina

Remember last year when Cam Newton was the next big thing? Now the only reason you hear about him in the news is to debate if it's racist to compare him to Vince Young. Reality is RGIII is the hot new thing, and I think Washington takes this game going away. Obama's biggest win of the night will almost certainly be in the District of Columbia. North Carolina, much like Indiana, will go back to the right after a brief flirtation with the left in the last election.

Detroit (-5) over Jacksonville

This game should be an easy win for Detroit, who needs to find some offensive rhythm and maintain it for a few weeks. We've already covered Florida in the election, so a quick look at Michigan. Will the prodigal son, Romney, come back to take the state? In a word, no.

Houston (-10) over Buffalo

I don't like any lines that are in the double digits this year, but I also think Houston is good and Buffalo is not. I can only hope for a huge game from CJ Spiller for my fantasy team. In the election TX is dead red and NY all blue, so I'll simply say that all those on the East coast are in my prayers.

Sunday Late Games

Oakland (-1) over Tampa

Florida, as we've covered, is for Romney. For the purposes of this game, consider only that the loss of Nicks at guard for the Bucs will hurt the running game quite a bit. This line seems too low, so I'll go with the home team. I do feel like I'm taking too many favorites.

Minnesota (+4) over Seattle

Seattle is 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road. This game is in Seattle. I'll take the Vikings to cover and a final score of Seattle 27 Minnesota 24. As for the election, both these states will go blue, in spite of Romney's campaign suddenly talking about Minnesota being in play.

Pittsburgh (+3) over NY Giants

I'd feel better about this if it wasn't for the emotion of the Giants playing in the Meadowlands. But I think that this is the game where Pittsburgh either announces itself as the contender they've been for years, or starts to quietly fade away. Big Ben is playing great and they need a signature win. As mentioned before, PA will go blue, don't listen to what Romney/Ryan are saying.

Sunday Night Game

Atlanta (+4) over Dallas

As I speak, Notre Dame is trying an improbable comeback. For this game, let me say that Atlanta will lose, and probably more than once. Picking the game they'll drop is the big  challenge. This spread reflects too much money on Dallas. I like Atlanta to cover going away. Just like Romney wins going away in Georgia and Dallas.

Monday Night Game

Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans

As much as I hate to admit it, this is the game Philly needs and New Orleans is cursed as can be this year. The penultimate game of the Michael Vick era, and it happens in New Orleans on the Monday night after Hurricane Sandy decimates the East coast. I like the points, and this gives me four dogs in a row to end. Also, Louisiana goes to Romney easy.

The Presidential Election

Obama 281 to Romney 257

That's my prediction for the final score. How did I get there? Well, here's how the election will break down friends:

Alabama - Romney - 9
Alaska - Romney - 3
Arizona - Romney - 11
Arkansas - Romney - 6
California - Obama - 55
Colorado - Romney - 9
Connecticut - Obama - 7
Delaware - Obama - 3
D.C. - Obama - 3
Florida - Romney - 29
Georgia - Romney - 16
Hawaii - Obama - 4
Idaho - Romney - 4
Illinois - Obama - 20
Indiana - Romney -  11
Iowa - Obama - 6
Kansas - Romney - 6
Kentucky - Romney - 8
Louisiana - Romney - 8
Maine - Obama - 4
Maryland - Obama - 10
Massachusetts - Obama - 11
Michigan - Obama - 16
Minnesota - Obama - 10
Mississippi - Romney - 6
Missouri - Romney - 10
Montana - Romney - 3
Nebraska - Romney - 5
Nevada - Obama - 6
New Hampshire - Obama - 4
New Jersey -  Obama - 14
New Mexico - Obama - 5
New York - Obama - 29
North Carolina - Romney - 15
North Dakota - Romney - 3
Ohio - Obama - 18
Oklahoma - Romney - 7
Oregon - Obama - 7
Pennsylvania - Obama - 20
Rhode Island - Obama - 4
South Carolina - Romney - 9
South Dakota - Romney - 3
Tennessee - Romney -11
Texas - Romney - 38
Utah - Romney - 6
Vermont - Obama - 3
Virginia - Romney - 13
Washington - Obama - 12
West Virginia - Romney - 5
Wisconsin - Obama - 10
Wyoming - Romney - 3


Even if Romney takes Florida, Colorado and Virginia Obama will win the election. I want to stress that I think Florida will go to Romney, but Colorado and Virginia are both toss ups in the definition of the word. Other "swing states" are much more leaning towards Obama. In other words, Obama is the odds on favorites. Enjoy your election drinking games. I'll break it down the night of if I'm so inspired. If not, at least when I make my picks next week there will be no more adds to annoy us.