So I sat down to write a paper for class, and here I am. I think we can all agree that it's more important for me to take my time waxing poetic on one of my all time favorite athletes than to be spending time on an examination of the inter-organizational politics that my employer engages in. Right? Besides, it's sunny, 80 degrees, I have a porch swing to sit on with my laptop, and it's Friday.
Kerry Wood really has been with me my entire life as far as being a baseball fan is concerned. My experience as a big sports fan dates back to 1992: I remember watching bits and pieces of the Bulls - Blazers finals and rooting for the Bulls. By 1993 I was watching the playoffs and thoroughly rooting for the Bulls against the Knicks and the Suns, could name the entire starting lineup plus a few subs easily, and started collecting basketball cards. By 1994 I was so head over heels for the NBA that I was actively debating the merits of the Bulls resigning Horace Grant to my grandmother. (Keep in mind, I was eight at the time; incidentally, he signed with the Magic, the first of many times that what I wanted my team to do was not played out by what they actually did). Somewhere in the summer of 1995, with baseball just back from a strike and MJ having just returned to the NBA I watched a Cubs game with my father. It was against the Atlanta Braves, and Greg Maddux was starting for the Braves. It took me a few years to figure out that the jerk who dominated the Cubs used to play for us. It took a few more years for me to be rooting for him when he returned to the Cubs.
By 1997 I was starting to learn baseball the same way I learned the NBA: via the backs of sports cards. The 1998 season was my coming out party as a Cubs fan. That was the Summer of McGwire and Sosa: Sammy hit 20 HRs in June alone, on his way to 66 and the MVP, and Big Mac slammed 70 on his way to a record that was celebrated, briefly, until it was tainted. The moment that won me over to the Cubs, however, was a game pitched by young Kerry Wood against the Houston Astros. His fifth career start. May 6th 1998. Nine innings pitched. One infield single the only hit allowed. No walks. No hit batters. Twenty Strike Outs.
Think about that: Twenty Strike Outs. Even at the young age of 12 I knew what that meant. That was Roger Clemens territory. That was the all time record. That was "holy shit" status. Keep in mind that the Cubs in the mid 1990s, as I became a fan, were a pretty awful group. Wood, along with Sosa's home run hitting, suddenly made us viable. We made the playoffs and weren't really sad when the Braves swept us. We were on the way up, and we had the next great pitcher on our team. Sosa was a fan favorite, but Wood meant so much more because he came from our minor league system, so he was OUR player.
That offseason, I remember sitting in the living room of my grandparents house on a Sunday afternoon when the news broke that Wood would miss the entire 1999 season and would have Tommy John surgery. I was devastated, and, apparently, so were the Cubs: they didn't show up for 1999. Or 2000. Neither did Wood. He started to rebound in 2001. We started to see the promise, but the team continued to be mostly Sosa and Wood. We needed more. 2003 the reinforcements arrived. With Wood a full fledged ace pitcher (striking out 266 batters) we had a big four of sorts: Wood, Mark Prior (the next Doc Gooden), Carlos Zambrano (nobody knew what to make of him but he was really good), and Matt Clement. We made it to the playoffs, and faced Atlanta again. This time we weren't going to be happy to be there.
We took Atlanta out in a classic Cubs ulcer inducing five games. Wood, as was fitting, was the game five starter. We rolled out to three games to one series lead against the Marlins, with Game five set in Florida. I spoke with my old man who was almost giddy about the impending Cubs National League pennant. Keep in mind, the last time the Cubs had even WON the pennant was 1945 (and, of course, the series in 1908), so he was pretty excited. I told him I had a bad feeling that we needed to finish the series in game five, or we would lose. And he looked at me and said "that's stupid: we have Prior and Wood going at home in games six and seven. We'll be fine."
You know that scene in Jurassic Park where Ian Malcolm's character says that he hates being right? Well, I hated being right. The Cubs lost game five, then Bartman and (most importantly) Dusty's incompetence and Alex Gonzalez' inability to field a double play ball led to the game six collapse. Still, game seven was at home, and we had Kerry Wood, Kid K himself, ready to take us to the World Series. It seemed meant to be. Wood allowed the Marlins to jump to a three run lead, and all seemed lost. But then Wood crushed a three run home run ... and there was hope again. Think about that: the pitcher gives up the three runs, then reinvigorates the crowd with a three run blast of his own. New game. I was at my youth group, with the game on the big screen, and ran around the basketball court, full speed, with my hand in a fist in the air as Wood rounded the bases. Game on!
Alas, it was in no way meant to be. Wood collapsed, and so did the Cubs. I watched the final outs from a small black and white TV in my mother's office. Hiding. Crushed. Praying for a miracle that wouldn't come. Knowing fully what it meant to be a Cubs fan. Still, we rationalized: we signed Maddux, improved the team, and would be back the next year. Except we weren't: Wood and Prior spent much of the year hurt, and the team collapsed late. Wood battled through numerous injuries throughout 2004, 2005 and 2006. By the end of the 2006 season it was evident: Prior was done and so was Wood. The Cubs dynamic 1-2 punch was for naught, and the era was over.
But Wood wasn't ready to let it be so. He returned as a reliever, and helped the team to a surprise division title in 2007 and was the All-star closer of the 2008 team that had the best record in the league. Disappointingly in 2007, and shockingly in 2008, the Cubs were swept from the playoffs on both occasions. Wood left for more money with Cleveland in the offseason, and it seemed his run as a Cub may have finished.
But Chicago is in Kerry's heart, and he returned in 2011 to pitch for the Cubs, taking millions upon millions of dollars less than he was offered. He was good last year, but the team wasn't. He was not so good this year, and so on this day he decided to hang it up. The last batter he faced struck out on three pitches. Hardly a perfect bookend to his career, but a bookend nonetheless.
Wood is not a Hall of Fame player. Wood is not even an all time Cubs great, at least not statistically. But he played a major part of four Cubs playoff teams. And more importantly, he became a latter day Mr. Cub, resonating with the fans in a way not seen since Sandberg at least, if not Santo and Banks. Wood said in his press conference that he hopes to stay with the team in some capacity, and I hope and trust that they will find a way to make that happen. Watching his son run out of the dugout to hug him after his strikeout, seeing the standing ovation, made me wish, for the first time this year, that I was at Wrigley. Kid K, no longer a kid, but instead a grizzled veteran, fades into the sunset.
And, again, this is why we love sports. We had the opportunity to watch Kerry Wood grow from the baby faced Texas Phenom who struck out twenty. We saw him start to reach his potential after the first round of injuries. We saw him reinvent himself after the second round of injuries. And we saw him come back home, taking far less to finish where he started. Kerry, thank you for the memories, and for guiding me into become a fan of the Chicago Cubs. I am fortunate to bleed Cubbie Blue in all I do, and you are as responsible for that as anyone. I'll always remember the Kid K poster that hung in my room, showing an on-fire fastball. Sports allow us to dream, and to be young. When you're a child you take that for granted. With a bit more perspective and real world responsibilities, I can honestly say that it is a gift. It'll be different without you Kerry. Thanks for understanding what makes the Cubs, Cubs fans, and Wrigley so special.
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Friday, May 18, 2012
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Week Seven Lines ... With Some Cubs Mixed In
I have a number of things on my mind that I'd like to write about, but given the time constraints I'll limit myself to a brief view on the state of the Cubs on the eve of the Theo Epstein era, and then get on to the lines.
Epstein comes to the Cubs having established himself as a giant killer. He killed the Yankees (albeit with a huge payroll) and killed the Curse of the Bambino ... twice. He was the GM who oversaw the 2004 and 2007 championships in Boston, and the renovation and rebirth of Fenway as a modern ancient ballpark. He has the name recognition, and he balances a desire to utilize new age statistic analysis with old school scouting techniques. But does Epstein have the chops to tackle the biggest mystery in major professional sports? That question is not the big one you'd think: why haven't the Cubs won the world series since 1908? That question, instead, is this: how is it possible that the Cubs haven't even been in the World Series since 1945?
The Cubs ineptitude is legendary; songs have been written about it, and it has become a part of the city's mystique. Most people know about the 2003 run that ended with three straight losses to the Florida Marlins. ESPN recently did a documentary on the Steve Bartman game, and the phenomena of "scapegoating" when teams lose. As I watched the documentary with my girlfriend, a Tigers fan, I had to explain what it is to be a Cubs fan. I explained Bartman, but also Gonzalez. I explained the sin that Dusty committed by waiting far too long to come out of the dugout to calm Prior down. I explained the sinking feeling, and what it's like to just know that it isn't going to work out for your team because it just can't. But above all else, something took her by surprise: 2003 was the first playoff series win that the Cubs had since 1908. Think about that.
Now, of course, some of that is due to the old set up, when one team went to the World Series from each league, and there was no playoffs. When the NL and AL started their own championship series there were then only two rounds. But it still drives the point home: the Cubs have one playoff series win since 1908, and prior to 2003 they had none. This is the legendary ineptitude that Theo now faces. The Red Sox won playoff series, and even made World Series with semi-regularity. The Cubs just lose.
That said, Epstein is a good move. I don't believe that he is the best move, and I'll be a bit befuddled if Andrew Friedman ends up leaving Tampa for Los Angeles and the Cubs never really looked into him. Given his impressive track record in Tampa, where he's had a payroll no higher than half of the Cubs annual payroll, and often times only 25% or less of the Cubs payroll, I'd like to see what he could do with the Cubs resources. I think that his scouting acumen, coupled with his discipline in signing contracts, would have been a unique fit for the Cubs. But we know what Theo can do with the Cubs resources. At his best he invests those resources heavily in the draft, building a minor league structure that becomes the backbone of major league teams. At his worst, he dumps tons of the money he has floating around into contracts that are too much for far too long. The last guy, Jim Hendry, had the latter skill down pat. He struggled mightily with the former. Who was the last minor league, before Castro, to be drafted by the Cubs and really thrive? That's the damning epitaph on Hendry's Cubs GM tombstone: Prior ... to Castro. As the Cubs aged they had nobody to step in. When injuries happened, nobody was ready to step in. The lack of young talent took what could have been a decade of playoff baseball in Chicago (from 2003 until present time) and instead gave us three distinct playoff seasons (2003, 2007 and 2008), as well as two almost there, but not quite years (2004 and, to a lesser extent, 2009).
This is essential because any year could be the year if things break just right. Hell, 2003 was nearly the year and it almost assuredly would have been if Alex ****ing Gonzalez hadn't handled that routine double play ball the same way my three year old nephew would have. (In case you were wondering, Gonzalez and Baker is where I lay all the blame for 2003). The Red Sox were not the best team in baseball in 2004 ... but they caught fire at the most unlikely of times (game four of the ALCS, down 3-0 to the Yankees) and didn't lose again. The key is that they had made the playoffs that year, and had a team that was good enough. This year, much like the last time they made a run like this, St. Louis has a pretty average team. They backed in to the playoffs, and had a pretty ugly regular season. Still, like the year they beat the Tigers, they may very well win it all. Any team can catch fire over a 15-19 game stretch. The White Sox in 2005 is another example of this fact: they were not that good, but they caught fire. And now they have what the Cubs haven't since 1908.
So the key to the farm system is that it helps to sustain playoff viability over a longer period of time. Even the Yankees, with their history or trading prospects and losing draft picks to get veterans via trade or free agency, have frequently brought up prospects who help. They practically print money, but they know the importance of cheap in house options that can be accessed on short notice. Hendry never got that memo. Epstein has to remember it. He needs to develop a system that will produce a Bucholtz, Lester, and Pedroia, among others. And that will take time. If I was going to hand write an agenda for Theo, it would look like this:
1. Spend at least 50% more on the draft next year than you did this year.
2. Pay someone to make Soriano go away. You'll have to eat $10 million per year to do it, but he won't be blocking your prospects at least.
3. Give Zambrano one last chance. One of two things will happen: he will show he doesn't have what it takes, and you just cut him, or he will look good, and you sell high on him during a contract year. If you try to cut bait now you gain nothing.
4. Trade Marlon Bird for prospects.
5. Let Aramis walk if he really wants to, and take the draft picks. If he chooses to stay, remind him he must be a leader.
6. Offer Carlos Pena arbitration. If he takes it, great: you have a one year stop gap at 1st with decent numbers and a good glove. If he doesn't, great: you get more draft picks.
7. Trade Carlos Marmol tomorrow.
8. Trade Geo Soto the day after tomorrow.
9. Trade Ryan Dempster in July.
10. Remind yourself that on the big league roster you currently have two untouchables (Castro and Garza) and two almost untouchables (Cashner and Barney). Everyone else can go, all in an effort to build towards tomorrow.
Epstein will hopefully avoid falling into the Pujols/Fielder trap by remembering that good 1st basemen who slug are a dime a dozen, and that a long contract to an elite player is wasted capital at this point. Simply put, the team most likely will not do too great in the next few years. That's why I didn't put "Fire Quade" as the top thing to do. Keeping Quade gives an easy scapegoat when the team is 20 games under .500 in June or July, so I can understand the logic in keeping him. If he does get rid of him, he needs to bring Ryne Sandberg in, no questions asked. I'm not a huge Sandberg apologist, but I do know that he is the only person on the market that would have the unconditional patience from the fans necessary to make it through a few losing years before the team is good again. No matter what direction Epstein decides to go, I hope that a multiple year rebuilding plan is a core concept. If it is the team will be able to build the core to make the playoffs 7 or 8 times in a ten year period of time. That will give them the best chance to win their second playoff series since 1908 ... and make their first World Series since 1945 ... and, by default, their best chance to win their first World Series since 1908.
On to the picks:
Last Week Against The Spread: 6-5-2
Last Week Straight Up: 9-4
Season Against The Spread: 44-42-4
Season Straight Up: 61-29
DAY GAMES
Browns (-3) over Seattle - This game is the consummate toss up in my mind. Whitehurst is making his first start, but he looked better than Jackson for Seattle last week. Cleveland has looked lost most of this year, and Hardesty for Hillis is probably a wash, although there is the potential that Hardesty might go off. It feels like this is a game where Seattle has just a little more gumption, but I'll just ride the favorite and be glad I'm not in a market where I'll have to watch either of these games. What's that? I'm working Sunday? Never mind...
Atlanta (+4) over Detroit - I've given this a good deal of thought, but at the end of the day the San Francisco game feels a bit like a turning point for the Lions, and not the good kind. I still believe that they'll make the playoffs as a wild card, but I also think their over hyped start, particularly when coupled with the nature of their close, come from behind wins, indicates a team that will lose a number of more games. Atlanta needs this game a lot more.
Houston (+3) over Tennessee - This was another tough game to pick. I could talk myself into either team here, particularly with my correct view on Houston falling apart the last few weeks. But Houston needs to win this game to keep the upper hand in the division, and I've got to believe that somehow they'll find a way to win. Otherwise, the Titans may win the division going away ... at 9-7.
Denver (+1) over Miami - Miami has a horrible home record, and Denver has Tebow starting in a defacto home game. I may not buy his skills in the big picture, but in the moment he can carry this team to a victory easily.
San Diego (+1) over NY Jets - a lot of close lines that could go either way this week. I'll pick San Diego because the Sanchize continues to prove me (and his countless other doubters) right with each errant throw.
Chicago (-2) over Tampa Bay - Okay Martz. Cutler cussed at you, then you call an offensive game plan that actually makes sense. You've got me buying in for this week, but don't you dare betray my trust.
Carolina (-3) over Washington - Let's just say that I believe Grossman > Beck. And I wasn't exactly a Grossman apologist. In fact, I was the opposite of that. I was a truth teller. Bad Rex!
LATE GAMES
Oakland (-6) over Kansas City - As scary as it is, this only makes sense if Palmer actually starts. That's how bad Boller is.
Pittsburgh (-4) over Arizona - Pittsburgh can't seem to decide if they want to be good, or bad. Arizona knows they are bad. I think the Steelers can cover this line.
Dallas (-14) over St. Louis - The Rams are bad, and now they start A.J. Feely. I can't wait to see how Tony Romo makes me regret this pick.
Green Bay (-10) over Minnesota - How, in the world, is Dallas a heavier favorite than Green Bay? This is a good line.
SUNDAY NIGHT
New Orleans (-14) over Indy - Indy has a great start on the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes. Look for New Orleans to help them continue to work towards another once in a generation QB.
MONDAY NIGHT
Baltimore (-9) over Jacksonville - The Ravens handled Houston last week at -8... they should be able to handle Jacksonville at -9.
Epstein comes to the Cubs having established himself as a giant killer. He killed the Yankees (albeit with a huge payroll) and killed the Curse of the Bambino ... twice. He was the GM who oversaw the 2004 and 2007 championships in Boston, and the renovation and rebirth of Fenway as a modern ancient ballpark. He has the name recognition, and he balances a desire to utilize new age statistic analysis with old school scouting techniques. But does Epstein have the chops to tackle the biggest mystery in major professional sports? That question is not the big one you'd think: why haven't the Cubs won the world series since 1908? That question, instead, is this: how is it possible that the Cubs haven't even been in the World Series since 1945?
The Cubs ineptitude is legendary; songs have been written about it, and it has become a part of the city's mystique. Most people know about the 2003 run that ended with three straight losses to the Florida Marlins. ESPN recently did a documentary on the Steve Bartman game, and the phenomena of "scapegoating" when teams lose. As I watched the documentary with my girlfriend, a Tigers fan, I had to explain what it is to be a Cubs fan. I explained Bartman, but also Gonzalez. I explained the sin that Dusty committed by waiting far too long to come out of the dugout to calm Prior down. I explained the sinking feeling, and what it's like to just know that it isn't going to work out for your team because it just can't. But above all else, something took her by surprise: 2003 was the first playoff series win that the Cubs had since 1908. Think about that.
Now, of course, some of that is due to the old set up, when one team went to the World Series from each league, and there was no playoffs. When the NL and AL started their own championship series there were then only two rounds. But it still drives the point home: the Cubs have one playoff series win since 1908, and prior to 2003 they had none. This is the legendary ineptitude that Theo now faces. The Red Sox won playoff series, and even made World Series with semi-regularity. The Cubs just lose.
That said, Epstein is a good move. I don't believe that he is the best move, and I'll be a bit befuddled if Andrew Friedman ends up leaving Tampa for Los Angeles and the Cubs never really looked into him. Given his impressive track record in Tampa, where he's had a payroll no higher than half of the Cubs annual payroll, and often times only 25% or less of the Cubs payroll, I'd like to see what he could do with the Cubs resources. I think that his scouting acumen, coupled with his discipline in signing contracts, would have been a unique fit for the Cubs. But we know what Theo can do with the Cubs resources. At his best he invests those resources heavily in the draft, building a minor league structure that becomes the backbone of major league teams. At his worst, he dumps tons of the money he has floating around into contracts that are too much for far too long. The last guy, Jim Hendry, had the latter skill down pat. He struggled mightily with the former. Who was the last minor league, before Castro, to be drafted by the Cubs and really thrive? That's the damning epitaph on Hendry's Cubs GM tombstone: Prior ... to Castro. As the Cubs aged they had nobody to step in. When injuries happened, nobody was ready to step in. The lack of young talent took what could have been a decade of playoff baseball in Chicago (from 2003 until present time) and instead gave us three distinct playoff seasons (2003, 2007 and 2008), as well as two almost there, but not quite years (2004 and, to a lesser extent, 2009).
This is essential because any year could be the year if things break just right. Hell, 2003 was nearly the year and it almost assuredly would have been if Alex ****ing Gonzalez hadn't handled that routine double play ball the same way my three year old nephew would have. (In case you were wondering, Gonzalez and Baker is where I lay all the blame for 2003). The Red Sox were not the best team in baseball in 2004 ... but they caught fire at the most unlikely of times (game four of the ALCS, down 3-0 to the Yankees) and didn't lose again. The key is that they had made the playoffs that year, and had a team that was good enough. This year, much like the last time they made a run like this, St. Louis has a pretty average team. They backed in to the playoffs, and had a pretty ugly regular season. Still, like the year they beat the Tigers, they may very well win it all. Any team can catch fire over a 15-19 game stretch. The White Sox in 2005 is another example of this fact: they were not that good, but they caught fire. And now they have what the Cubs haven't since 1908.
So the key to the farm system is that it helps to sustain playoff viability over a longer period of time. Even the Yankees, with their history or trading prospects and losing draft picks to get veterans via trade or free agency, have frequently brought up prospects who help. They practically print money, but they know the importance of cheap in house options that can be accessed on short notice. Hendry never got that memo. Epstein has to remember it. He needs to develop a system that will produce a Bucholtz, Lester, and Pedroia, among others. And that will take time. If I was going to hand write an agenda for Theo, it would look like this:
1. Spend at least 50% more on the draft next year than you did this year.
2. Pay someone to make Soriano go away. You'll have to eat $10 million per year to do it, but he won't be blocking your prospects at least.
3. Give Zambrano one last chance. One of two things will happen: he will show he doesn't have what it takes, and you just cut him, or he will look good, and you sell high on him during a contract year. If you try to cut bait now you gain nothing.
4. Trade Marlon Bird for prospects.
5. Let Aramis walk if he really wants to, and take the draft picks. If he chooses to stay, remind him he must be a leader.
6. Offer Carlos Pena arbitration. If he takes it, great: you have a one year stop gap at 1st with decent numbers and a good glove. If he doesn't, great: you get more draft picks.
7. Trade Carlos Marmol tomorrow.
8. Trade Geo Soto the day after tomorrow.
9. Trade Ryan Dempster in July.
10. Remind yourself that on the big league roster you currently have two untouchables (Castro and Garza) and two almost untouchables (Cashner and Barney). Everyone else can go, all in an effort to build towards tomorrow.
Epstein will hopefully avoid falling into the Pujols/Fielder trap by remembering that good 1st basemen who slug are a dime a dozen, and that a long contract to an elite player is wasted capital at this point. Simply put, the team most likely will not do too great in the next few years. That's why I didn't put "Fire Quade" as the top thing to do. Keeping Quade gives an easy scapegoat when the team is 20 games under .500 in June or July, so I can understand the logic in keeping him. If he does get rid of him, he needs to bring Ryne Sandberg in, no questions asked. I'm not a huge Sandberg apologist, but I do know that he is the only person on the market that would have the unconditional patience from the fans necessary to make it through a few losing years before the team is good again. No matter what direction Epstein decides to go, I hope that a multiple year rebuilding plan is a core concept. If it is the team will be able to build the core to make the playoffs 7 or 8 times in a ten year period of time. That will give them the best chance to win their second playoff series since 1908 ... and make their first World Series since 1945 ... and, by default, their best chance to win their first World Series since 1908.
On to the picks:
Last Week Against The Spread: 6-5-2
Last Week Straight Up: 9-4
Season Against The Spread: 44-42-4
Season Straight Up: 61-29
DAY GAMES
Browns (-3) over Seattle - This game is the consummate toss up in my mind. Whitehurst is making his first start, but he looked better than Jackson for Seattle last week. Cleveland has looked lost most of this year, and Hardesty for Hillis is probably a wash, although there is the potential that Hardesty might go off. It feels like this is a game where Seattle has just a little more gumption, but I'll just ride the favorite and be glad I'm not in a market where I'll have to watch either of these games. What's that? I'm working Sunday? Never mind...
Atlanta (+4) over Detroit - I've given this a good deal of thought, but at the end of the day the San Francisco game feels a bit like a turning point for the Lions, and not the good kind. I still believe that they'll make the playoffs as a wild card, but I also think their over hyped start, particularly when coupled with the nature of their close, come from behind wins, indicates a team that will lose a number of more games. Atlanta needs this game a lot more.
Houston (+3) over Tennessee - This was another tough game to pick. I could talk myself into either team here, particularly with my correct view on Houston falling apart the last few weeks. But Houston needs to win this game to keep the upper hand in the division, and I've got to believe that somehow they'll find a way to win. Otherwise, the Titans may win the division going away ... at 9-7.
Denver (+1) over Miami - Miami has a horrible home record, and Denver has Tebow starting in a defacto home game. I may not buy his skills in the big picture, but in the moment he can carry this team to a victory easily.
San Diego (+1) over NY Jets - a lot of close lines that could go either way this week. I'll pick San Diego because the Sanchize continues to prove me (and his countless other doubters) right with each errant throw.
Chicago (-2) over Tampa Bay - Okay Martz. Cutler cussed at you, then you call an offensive game plan that actually makes sense. You've got me buying in for this week, but don't you dare betray my trust.
Carolina (-3) over Washington - Let's just say that I believe Grossman > Beck. And I wasn't exactly a Grossman apologist. In fact, I was the opposite of that. I was a truth teller. Bad Rex!
LATE GAMES
Oakland (-6) over Kansas City - As scary as it is, this only makes sense if Palmer actually starts. That's how bad Boller is.
Pittsburgh (-4) over Arizona - Pittsburgh can't seem to decide if they want to be good, or bad. Arizona knows they are bad. I think the Steelers can cover this line.
Dallas (-14) over St. Louis - The Rams are bad, and now they start A.J. Feely. I can't wait to see how Tony Romo makes me regret this pick.
Green Bay (-10) over Minnesota - How, in the world, is Dallas a heavier favorite than Green Bay? This is a good line.
SUNDAY NIGHT
New Orleans (-14) over Indy - Indy has a great start on the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes. Look for New Orleans to help them continue to work towards another once in a generation QB.
MONDAY NIGHT
Baltimore (-9) over Jacksonville - The Ravens handled Houston last week at -8... they should be able to handle Jacksonville at -9.
Friday, August 19, 2011
The Long National Nightmare
Today, as I was traversing I-94 between Jackson and Kalamazoo, the word came down over the radio. Well, actually it was reported on 670 (the score) but was tipped to them via twitter. Yes, David Kaplan "tweeted" the news that I feared would not happen before next year: Jim Hendry was done as GM of the Chicago Cubs. Setting aside the fact that I suddenly felt old (after all, I knew Kaplan as the voice of WGN's sports central growing up, and now this guy was ... tweeting?), I had a moment of hope pass over me. I immediately called my brother to let him know what was transpiring, leaving him a voicemail that I hope lifted his spirits. Then, as I drove around Michigan I listened to the press conferences and commentary. Let's break them down one by one:
1. Jim Hendry - he did himself well as he went in front of the media. He acknowledged how lucky he was to have the job for nine years while not winning the series. He let the cat out of the bag: he was really fired on July 22nd. Hendry, as one caller noted, almost ruined the entire day. He was humble, respectful, and made you feel bad for him. For a fleeting moment I actually felt bad for the guy and started to think maybe we shouldn't have done this. Then I stopped and thought of the following:
- Soriano - 8 years, $136 million
- Fukudome - 4 years, $48 million
- Bradley - 3 years, $30 million
- Kevin Gregg - traded prospects for him, then let Kerry Wood go
- Allowed the total mishandling of Zambrano after paying him like an ace
- Four top prospects for Matt Garza heading into a year we already weren't going to compete
Really, the list goes on and on. Hendry pointed out that Andy McPhail left him with a team on the edge of winning, and he's correct. And it would be terribly one sided and unfair to ignore some of the good Hendry moments:
- traded Bobby Hill, essentially, for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton and Randal Simon
- signing Ted Lilly was sneaky good; he was much better and coast 1/3 as much as the more heralded Barry Zito (who also signed that offseason)
- signing Marlon Byrd to a flexible deal that increases his value
And there are probably a few others. That doesn't change the fact that Hendry mismanaged this team. He allowed the core of the would be Wood/Prior/Zambrano dynasty to disintegrate in front of our eyes. He held on to Sosa far too long, killing any trade value. He had a habit of sitting on prospects way too long before cashing them in (see Patterson, Corey and Fox, Jake if you have questions). On the whole, we can surmise the following from the Hendry era:
- He was a really nice guy who had a big heart and wanted to see the Cubs win.
- He was capable of making good deals when trading with Pittsburgh
- He was not afraid of spending money
- He did not know how to spend money well
- He was overmatched as a big league GM
Much like Jerry Krause before him, Hendry will undoubtedly resurface as a scout somewhere. And he should. He has some skills. But as GM of one of the top five revenue clubs in the majors? It took our next person far too long to realize what we all already knew: Hendry was not a fit.
2. Tom Ricketts - The owner then took the mic and said many good things. That he wanted a GM with experience. More importantly, with winning experience. That he was going to check in with experienced baseball people around the league to see what they thought. That the Cubs one goal is to win it all. But this move left more questions than answers. Most notably:
- How did it take him this long to get rid of Hendry?
- Why did he allow Hendry to waste another year by hiring Quade, who is comically over matched at the big league level, and will be a one and done manager in his only cup of coffee as the big league boss?
- Why did he allow Hendry to pay the farm for Matt Garza (a good pitcher) when anyone who was awake the last few years knew this team was going nowhere?
- Why did he allow Hendry to execute this year's trading deadline (in which the Cubs largely sat stagnate) when he decided to fire him on July 22nd?
Ricketts now needs to do his best to turn public sentiment back in his favor. There was a great deal of excitement upon the family's purchase of the Cubs, but most people have come to fear that the ownership group isn't that much better than the Tribune Company was. Can I get a "why couldn't we have had Mark Cuban?" Let's just say I'm terrified that he will buy his hometown Pirates someday and turn them into a powerhouse that kicks our tail.
3. Steve Stone - the ... ugh, WHITE SOX (that still makes me sick) ... play by play guy is a staple on The SCORE, and he came on and had some good insight. It's beyond me why the Cubs won't find a way to get him back in the fold. Losing him from TV was rough, but isn't there a way to have him in the front office. Love him or hate him (and the Tribune obviously fell in the latter group), he often foresaw issues before they happened. His baseball acumen is great. I wouldn't say "hire him as GM" but I would find a place in the front office if possible.
At any rate, it's a good day to be a Cubs fan, or at least as good of a day as we've had this year. It doesn't undo the fact that we are in need of cleaning house, and refocusing with a target date of 2014 to be relevant again. While I'm ranting, here are a few suggestions for GM:
1. Andrew Friedman - GM of Tampa Bay
Friedman has shown an uncanny ability to turn former prospects into future prospects before they lose value, and to hold on to players and turn the draft picks acquired when they leave via free agency into a strong minor league system. He will never be able to compete year in and year out with Boston and New York, not with Tampa's payroll. But with the Cubs payroll? I bet he'd do damage.
2. Brian Cashman - GM of New York Yankees
His contract is up, he's a proven winner who generally does okay with big money expenditures. The Cubs payroll certainly isn't the Yankees, but he knows how to spend smart. Let's not forget that he sold high on Soriano way back when. He's not the best, but he knows how to win, and would give the Cubs a sense of legitimacy.
3. Ben Cherington - Assistant GM of Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox also know how to run things. I don't think we'd be able to pry Theo away ... but maybe his to lieutenant?
1. Jim Hendry - he did himself well as he went in front of the media. He acknowledged how lucky he was to have the job for nine years while not winning the series. He let the cat out of the bag: he was really fired on July 22nd. Hendry, as one caller noted, almost ruined the entire day. He was humble, respectful, and made you feel bad for him. For a fleeting moment I actually felt bad for the guy and started to think maybe we shouldn't have done this. Then I stopped and thought of the following:
- Soriano - 8 years, $136 million
- Fukudome - 4 years, $48 million
- Bradley - 3 years, $30 million
- Kevin Gregg - traded prospects for him, then let Kerry Wood go
- Allowed the total mishandling of Zambrano after paying him like an ace
- Four top prospects for Matt Garza heading into a year we already weren't going to compete
Really, the list goes on and on. Hendry pointed out that Andy McPhail left him with a team on the edge of winning, and he's correct. And it would be terribly one sided and unfair to ignore some of the good Hendry moments:
- traded Bobby Hill, essentially, for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton and Randal Simon
- signing Ted Lilly was sneaky good; he was much better and coast 1/3 as much as the more heralded Barry Zito (who also signed that offseason)
- signing Marlon Byrd to a flexible deal that increases his value
And there are probably a few others. That doesn't change the fact that Hendry mismanaged this team. He allowed the core of the would be Wood/Prior/Zambrano dynasty to disintegrate in front of our eyes. He held on to Sosa far too long, killing any trade value. He had a habit of sitting on prospects way too long before cashing them in (see Patterson, Corey and Fox, Jake if you have questions). On the whole, we can surmise the following from the Hendry era:
- He was a really nice guy who had a big heart and wanted to see the Cubs win.
- He was capable of making good deals when trading with Pittsburgh
- He was not afraid of spending money
- He did not know how to spend money well
- He was overmatched as a big league GM
Much like Jerry Krause before him, Hendry will undoubtedly resurface as a scout somewhere. And he should. He has some skills. But as GM of one of the top five revenue clubs in the majors? It took our next person far too long to realize what we all already knew: Hendry was not a fit.
2. Tom Ricketts - The owner then took the mic and said many good things. That he wanted a GM with experience. More importantly, with winning experience. That he was going to check in with experienced baseball people around the league to see what they thought. That the Cubs one goal is to win it all. But this move left more questions than answers. Most notably:
- How did it take him this long to get rid of Hendry?
- Why did he allow Hendry to waste another year by hiring Quade, who is comically over matched at the big league level, and will be a one and done manager in his only cup of coffee as the big league boss?
- Why did he allow Hendry to pay the farm for Matt Garza (a good pitcher) when anyone who was awake the last few years knew this team was going nowhere?
- Why did he allow Hendry to execute this year's trading deadline (in which the Cubs largely sat stagnate) when he decided to fire him on July 22nd?
Ricketts now needs to do his best to turn public sentiment back in his favor. There was a great deal of excitement upon the family's purchase of the Cubs, but most people have come to fear that the ownership group isn't that much better than the Tribune Company was. Can I get a "why couldn't we have had Mark Cuban?" Let's just say I'm terrified that he will buy his hometown Pirates someday and turn them into a powerhouse that kicks our tail.
3. Steve Stone - the ... ugh, WHITE SOX (that still makes me sick) ... play by play guy is a staple on The SCORE, and he came on and had some good insight. It's beyond me why the Cubs won't find a way to get him back in the fold. Losing him from TV was rough, but isn't there a way to have him in the front office. Love him or hate him (and the Tribune obviously fell in the latter group), he often foresaw issues before they happened. His baseball acumen is great. I wouldn't say "hire him as GM" but I would find a place in the front office if possible.
At any rate, it's a good day to be a Cubs fan, or at least as good of a day as we've had this year. It doesn't undo the fact that we are in need of cleaning house, and refocusing with a target date of 2014 to be relevant again. While I'm ranting, here are a few suggestions for GM:
1. Andrew Friedman - GM of Tampa Bay
Friedman has shown an uncanny ability to turn former prospects into future prospects before they lose value, and to hold on to players and turn the draft picks acquired when they leave via free agency into a strong minor league system. He will never be able to compete year in and year out with Boston and New York, not with Tampa's payroll. But with the Cubs payroll? I bet he'd do damage.
2. Brian Cashman - GM of New York Yankees
His contract is up, he's a proven winner who generally does okay with big money expenditures. The Cubs payroll certainly isn't the Yankees, but he knows how to spend smart. Let's not forget that he sold high on Soriano way back when. He's not the best, but he knows how to win, and would give the Cubs a sense of legitimacy.
3. Ben Cherington - Assistant GM of Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox also know how to run things. I don't think we'd be able to pry Theo away ... but maybe his to lieutenant?
Saturday, August 13, 2011
When Winning Isn't Possible
"I kinda hope Zambrano never pitches for us again. That was embarrassing."
When I walked out into the front room this morning, where my phone had sat over night, I saw this text from my brother. I immediately knew that Carlos had either A) gotten lit up for a ton of runs, or B) hit someone. As luck would have it, as I looked things up on my blackberry, it was a weird combination of both ... and more. My brother's reaction was not my immediate reaction. I felt more bad for the guy ... how sick is that ... because he just does not fit in on a losing team. Furthermore, I know that he wants to win as much as anyone. So I responded "poor Carlos ... he just needs to retire. He doesn't handle shitty teams well." These different responses ultimately get to the same point: it's time for Carlos to go. Hell, it's time for the entire team (short of Castro) to go. But, in particular, it's time to fully break away from the last vestiges of the "almost did it" Cubs team of 2003 (Ramirez and Zambrano), as well as the "should have done it, but lacked the fortitude when it mattered" teams of 2007 and 2008 (Soriano, Soto, Marmol). Carlos' melt down is just the most recent example of this fact.
At the end of the day, Carlos Zambrano never came close to reaching his potential. I'm not sure if he got fat, or went a little too crazy, or just wanted it too bad to be able to get it there. I do not doubt that Carlos wanted very much to be the man to get the fourth victory in the World Series for the Cubs. I have no doubt that he loves the city, the team, and the sport a good deal. I also have no doubt that the retirement statement isn't a gimmick, even if he ends up coming back. I believe firmly that Carlos is just about fed up with the state of the Cubs, and that it is hard for him to get up for going into work everyday when he knows his team can't hit with runners in scoring position, can't field worth a damn, and generally only play well when it doesn't matter. And that's not just this year: that's his entire career.
Imagine that every day you go into work, and no matter how hard you do or don't work nothing changes. The company is constantly mired in the past, unable to right its' course for the future, and day after day you are stuck with the reality that nothing you do is going to change that course because management is so incompetent that you don't get any help. They overpay for has beens in the industry. They hang on to the 65 year old who is well past his prime. They refuse to invest in fresh, out of college talent, choosing instead to hire a bunch of temps who are just proficient enough to make management pat themselves on the back. Imagine all that, and tell me that you wouldn't be looking ahead to the next thing. And let's just suppose that you had the talent and ambition to be a Fortune 500 CEO while you were at it, but being stuck in this place made it so that you never were able to flourish. Now you'll be remembered simply as an also-ran. And, now, the kicker: you love this place. It means the world to you, and you want to see it be a power in the field. You can't bear the thought of jumping ship, even when you had the chance a few years back, because you want to succeed HERE not THERE. Now, that ships sailed; you're a tarnished brand because you never were surrounded with the talent needed to succeed, and nobody wants you outside of your own place. Hell, they don't even want you anymore. What do you do?
Contrary to what this sounds like, I am far from a Carlos Zambrano apologist. He's done far too little with far too much, and he was trusted to carry our team forward after the tragedy that was the Kerry Wood/Mark Prior dynasty. Zambrano seemed to have the backbone of a mule, and the skill to go with it. He would be the ace around which our drought ended. But the Cubs never surrounded him with real talent. He's never played along side a Hall of Fame caliber player (unless you decide to count Sammy Sosa). When Wood and Prior went down the Cubs replaced them with journey men (Jason Marquis), over paid veterans who were just good enough to keep the team relevant, but didn't have a chance in the world of helping the team win it all (Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly), or a group of junk ballers who were questionable major league talents at best (Sean Estes, Randy Wells). When, finally, this year the Cubs made a move to try to surround him with real pitching talent (Garza) it was far too little, far too late. Zambrano's ship sailed about two years ago, when Hendry's compounding of stupid moves killed the last breath of hope that the Cubs would be relevant during his reign. My point is this: if Carlos didn't win 25 games a year, he was never going to be able to overcome the short comings of his teammates. And even if he did, he didn't have enough help to win it all. The Cubs almost went out of their way to pay him like an ace, then tell him he wasn't an ace. About the time that Sweet Lou put him in the bullpen this ending was inevitable.
So go ahead and criticize him for not trying. I think you're wrong. I think he tried too hard, and that impacted his performance negatively. Go ahead and accuse him of quitting. I'd say "so what? The rest of his team quit before the season even started, and the GM quit on this team years ago." Go ahead and say he let the team down. True, but the team let him down more. At the end of the day, the truest thing you can say about Carlos Zambrano is that he never wanted to leave the team, a la Greg Maddux. He never wanted to be the circus side show, a la Sammy Sosa. And that all would have been fine if he was as even keeled as Kerry Wood ... but that was never Big Z. All he wanted to do was to win. And that just isn't possible on the North side of Chicago. We have 103 years (and counting) to prove it.
When I walked out into the front room this morning, where my phone had sat over night, I saw this text from my brother. I immediately knew that Carlos had either A) gotten lit up for a ton of runs, or B) hit someone. As luck would have it, as I looked things up on my blackberry, it was a weird combination of both ... and more. My brother's reaction was not my immediate reaction. I felt more bad for the guy ... how sick is that ... because he just does not fit in on a losing team. Furthermore, I know that he wants to win as much as anyone. So I responded "poor Carlos ... he just needs to retire. He doesn't handle shitty teams well." These different responses ultimately get to the same point: it's time for Carlos to go. Hell, it's time for the entire team (short of Castro) to go. But, in particular, it's time to fully break away from the last vestiges of the "almost did it" Cubs team of 2003 (Ramirez and Zambrano), as well as the "should have done it, but lacked the fortitude when it mattered" teams of 2007 and 2008 (Soriano, Soto, Marmol). Carlos' melt down is just the most recent example of this fact.
At the end of the day, Carlos Zambrano never came close to reaching his potential. I'm not sure if he got fat, or went a little too crazy, or just wanted it too bad to be able to get it there. I do not doubt that Carlos wanted very much to be the man to get the fourth victory in the World Series for the Cubs. I have no doubt that he loves the city, the team, and the sport a good deal. I also have no doubt that the retirement statement isn't a gimmick, even if he ends up coming back. I believe firmly that Carlos is just about fed up with the state of the Cubs, and that it is hard for him to get up for going into work everyday when he knows his team can't hit with runners in scoring position, can't field worth a damn, and generally only play well when it doesn't matter. And that's not just this year: that's his entire career.
Imagine that every day you go into work, and no matter how hard you do or don't work nothing changes. The company is constantly mired in the past, unable to right its' course for the future, and day after day you are stuck with the reality that nothing you do is going to change that course because management is so incompetent that you don't get any help. They overpay for has beens in the industry. They hang on to the 65 year old who is well past his prime. They refuse to invest in fresh, out of college talent, choosing instead to hire a bunch of temps who are just proficient enough to make management pat themselves on the back. Imagine all that, and tell me that you wouldn't be looking ahead to the next thing. And let's just suppose that you had the talent and ambition to be a Fortune 500 CEO while you were at it, but being stuck in this place made it so that you never were able to flourish. Now you'll be remembered simply as an also-ran. And, now, the kicker: you love this place. It means the world to you, and you want to see it be a power in the field. You can't bear the thought of jumping ship, even when you had the chance a few years back, because you want to succeed HERE not THERE. Now, that ships sailed; you're a tarnished brand because you never were surrounded with the talent needed to succeed, and nobody wants you outside of your own place. Hell, they don't even want you anymore. What do you do?
Contrary to what this sounds like, I am far from a Carlos Zambrano apologist. He's done far too little with far too much, and he was trusted to carry our team forward after the tragedy that was the Kerry Wood/Mark Prior dynasty. Zambrano seemed to have the backbone of a mule, and the skill to go with it. He would be the ace around which our drought ended. But the Cubs never surrounded him with real talent. He's never played along side a Hall of Fame caliber player (unless you decide to count Sammy Sosa). When Wood and Prior went down the Cubs replaced them with journey men (Jason Marquis), over paid veterans who were just good enough to keep the team relevant, but didn't have a chance in the world of helping the team win it all (Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly), or a group of junk ballers who were questionable major league talents at best (Sean Estes, Randy Wells). When, finally, this year the Cubs made a move to try to surround him with real pitching talent (Garza) it was far too little, far too late. Zambrano's ship sailed about two years ago, when Hendry's compounding of stupid moves killed the last breath of hope that the Cubs would be relevant during his reign. My point is this: if Carlos didn't win 25 games a year, he was never going to be able to overcome the short comings of his teammates. And even if he did, he didn't have enough help to win it all. The Cubs almost went out of their way to pay him like an ace, then tell him he wasn't an ace. About the time that Sweet Lou put him in the bullpen this ending was inevitable.
So go ahead and criticize him for not trying. I think you're wrong. I think he tried too hard, and that impacted his performance negatively. Go ahead and accuse him of quitting. I'd say "so what? The rest of his team quit before the season even started, and the GM quit on this team years ago." Go ahead and say he let the team down. True, but the team let him down more. At the end of the day, the truest thing you can say about Carlos Zambrano is that he never wanted to leave the team, a la Greg Maddux. He never wanted to be the circus side show, a la Sammy Sosa. And that all would have been fine if he was as even keeled as Kerry Wood ... but that was never Big Z. All he wanted to do was to win. And that just isn't possible on the North side of Chicago. We have 103 years (and counting) to prove it.
Friday, April 1, 2011
April Fool's Day
I could go on for thousands of words trying to sum up the feelings of yet another opening day, but ultimately I'd fall short. People who root for other teams don't understand what it's like to bleed Cubbie Blue, nor the religious experience it is to walk into Wrigley Field and imagine, just for a moment, what it will be like that magical day when the drought is over, the curse is broken, and the Cubs win it all. I haven't been able to find one pundit, one expert who thinks this year will end any differently than the last 102 for my Cubs. But something, right now, tells me the experts are wrong. Their is talent on this team, starting first and foremost with a pitching staff that may not have Holiday, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels ... but does have four pitchers who can win 15+, and a young man with plenty of potential in Andrew Cashner. Hitting in the NL, Carlos Pena can easily hit .250 ... with 40 home runs. We have young talent. And it's been quite awhile since we could say that. Plus, Kerry Wood is back in town, which always warms my heart. For today, I believe. I know it's possible that we could outlast the Cards, beat up as they are, and the Brewers, inconsistent as they are ... and the Reds, because Dusty will ruin that pitching staff too. As they said on Bleacher Nation: today I choose to be an April fool. As always, nothing sums up the experience of being a Cubs fan quite like Eddie Vedder's anthem. The team in the video is outdated by a few years, but the sentiment is eternal.
I believe. Do you?
I believe. Do you?
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Ron Santo
I wish life wasn't quite so busy. If it wasn't I would have time to write more, but I felt the need to take a break from my semester paper to share my Ron Santo story.
About ten years ago my father, brother and I went to Chicago in the dead of winter to attend the Cubs Convention. For those of you who have not been to this event, it is all things Cubs, all the time. We listened to panel discussions, we stood in line to meet former and current Cubs, and we ducked out to catch a Bulls game in the post-MJ era; a decision I think we all regretted as soon as the opening tip happened. The Cubs convention held two iconic moments in my mind. The first was standing next to Ernie Banks, Mr. Cub himself, with my father and brother and getting our picture taken. Mr. Banks was kind enough to call us up even though his time was up and we had been told that he had to go. He asked if we wanted autographs; we replied uniformly that it was more meaningful to have the opportunity to shake his hand.
If you ask my brother and father what their iconic memory of that trip was I am sure they'd say meeting Ernie Banks, mixed in with the morons who let us pass them in line because they weren't there to see Mr. Banks ... they were there to see Kyle Farnsworth. But while this memory shines for me, I have a different moment that meant the world to me. As we were sitting in the room waiting for a panel discussion to start, an event that included a great number of Cubs greats, I saw Ron Santo walk in. You have to understand, this was a group that included Ryne Sandburg and other Cubs greats, but Santo stole the show. I noticed him immediately; he as the voice of the Cubs, the man who had taught me more than any other the joy and pain that came with rooting for the Northsiders. I quickly grabbed the calendar that was a door giveaway, and asked my father for a pen. He handed over his fine-ink banker pen, and off I went (all of ten or twelve at the time), dodging through people so that I could get to Ron before he made it to the stage.
I made it to him and said "Mr. Santo, could I have your autograph please?" Ron smiled at me, said "sure kid" and took the pen and calendar out of my hands. I felt like a million bucks as he took the cap off the pen, went to sign it ... and the pen wouldn't write on the calendar. The material wasn't made for a banker pen. My heart sank, as I realized I had just blown my opportunity to get Ron Santo's autograph, and made myself look like a young fool in the process. As I tried to work up the fortitude to turn and walk away (entirely ready to forget the calendar and the pen) I heard Ron say "hey, does anybody have a sharpie so I can sign this calendar for this young man?" I turned in time to see someone pass a sharpie over (lesson learned: sharpies are the best autograph hunting tools to carry), and Ron signed the calendar, handed it to me with a smile, then headed up to the stage. I, in turn, left with much more than an autograph of a player who was retired long before I came around; I left with a lesson on class and kindness.
I think I know where that calendar is right now, but I can't be sure. Life gets in the way, and things come and go. Ron Santo will not fade, however, in my mind, or in the hearts of millions of other Cubs fans around the world. Santo is a rare entity in the sports world: a legend who is revered by many, but largely under-appreciated. That he is not in the Hall of Fame goes a long way towards making that institution a sham. I also have little doubt that the powers that be will put him in the hall shortly; it has long been thought that they'd wait him out, and give him that acknowledgment only after he passed. If and when that happens, I hope that whoever gives his induction speech sends the simplest of messages, one that Ron sent time and again: you guys missed your chance. Ron Santo, through all of his trials, became bigger than most players in one crucial way: he defined a franchise, a passion for the game, and an entire nation of Cubs fans. When his number was retired at Wrigley he reached his absolution; the rest is just peanuts. And now, just like that, he's gone. Quietly, without complaint, which was Ronnie's style. I can't begin to fathom tuning into 720 this spring, summer and fall, and not hearing Ron Santo's ecstatic "yes!" or depressing "Jeez!" Ron taught me all I needed to know about being a sports fan: you stick by your team through thick and thin. You always believe, and never forget that you are blessed each time you walk into the hallowed grounds of Wrigley. Ronnie, I wish I could say this season was for you, that we were gonna win it all in your name. Maybe we will, but I doubt it. What I do know is that Eddie Vedder spoke what you lived: "when the day comes with that last winning run, and I'm crying and covered in beer, I look to the sky and know I was right to think 'someday we'll go all the way.'"
Mr. Santo, thanks for the memories. You will be missed.
About ten years ago my father, brother and I went to Chicago in the dead of winter to attend the Cubs Convention. For those of you who have not been to this event, it is all things Cubs, all the time. We listened to panel discussions, we stood in line to meet former and current Cubs, and we ducked out to catch a Bulls game in the post-MJ era; a decision I think we all regretted as soon as the opening tip happened. The Cubs convention held two iconic moments in my mind. The first was standing next to Ernie Banks, Mr. Cub himself, with my father and brother and getting our picture taken. Mr. Banks was kind enough to call us up even though his time was up and we had been told that he had to go. He asked if we wanted autographs; we replied uniformly that it was more meaningful to have the opportunity to shake his hand.
If you ask my brother and father what their iconic memory of that trip was I am sure they'd say meeting Ernie Banks, mixed in with the morons who let us pass them in line because they weren't there to see Mr. Banks ... they were there to see Kyle Farnsworth. But while this memory shines for me, I have a different moment that meant the world to me. As we were sitting in the room waiting for a panel discussion to start, an event that included a great number of Cubs greats, I saw Ron Santo walk in. You have to understand, this was a group that included Ryne Sandburg and other Cubs greats, but Santo stole the show. I noticed him immediately; he as the voice of the Cubs, the man who had taught me more than any other the joy and pain that came with rooting for the Northsiders. I quickly grabbed the calendar that was a door giveaway, and asked my father for a pen. He handed over his fine-ink banker pen, and off I went (all of ten or twelve at the time), dodging through people so that I could get to Ron before he made it to the stage.
I made it to him and said "Mr. Santo, could I have your autograph please?" Ron smiled at me, said "sure kid" and took the pen and calendar out of my hands. I felt like a million bucks as he took the cap off the pen, went to sign it ... and the pen wouldn't write on the calendar. The material wasn't made for a banker pen. My heart sank, as I realized I had just blown my opportunity to get Ron Santo's autograph, and made myself look like a young fool in the process. As I tried to work up the fortitude to turn and walk away (entirely ready to forget the calendar and the pen) I heard Ron say "hey, does anybody have a sharpie so I can sign this calendar for this young man?" I turned in time to see someone pass a sharpie over (lesson learned: sharpies are the best autograph hunting tools to carry), and Ron signed the calendar, handed it to me with a smile, then headed up to the stage. I, in turn, left with much more than an autograph of a player who was retired long before I came around; I left with a lesson on class and kindness.
I think I know where that calendar is right now, but I can't be sure. Life gets in the way, and things come and go. Ron Santo will not fade, however, in my mind, or in the hearts of millions of other Cubs fans around the world. Santo is a rare entity in the sports world: a legend who is revered by many, but largely under-appreciated. That he is not in the Hall of Fame goes a long way towards making that institution a sham. I also have little doubt that the powers that be will put him in the hall shortly; it has long been thought that they'd wait him out, and give him that acknowledgment only after he passed. If and when that happens, I hope that whoever gives his induction speech sends the simplest of messages, one that Ron sent time and again: you guys missed your chance. Ron Santo, through all of his trials, became bigger than most players in one crucial way: he defined a franchise, a passion for the game, and an entire nation of Cubs fans. When his number was retired at Wrigley he reached his absolution; the rest is just peanuts. And now, just like that, he's gone. Quietly, without complaint, which was Ronnie's style. I can't begin to fathom tuning into 720 this spring, summer and fall, and not hearing Ron Santo's ecstatic "yes!" or depressing "Jeez!" Ron taught me all I needed to know about being a sports fan: you stick by your team through thick and thin. You always believe, and never forget that you are blessed each time you walk into the hallowed grounds of Wrigley. Ronnie, I wish I could say this season was for you, that we were gonna win it all in your name. Maybe we will, but I doubt it. What I do know is that Eddie Vedder spoke what you lived: "when the day comes with that last winning run, and I'm crying and covered in beer, I look to the sky and know I was right to think 'someday we'll go all the way.'"
Mr. Santo, thanks for the memories. You will be missed.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
MLB 2010 - A Fools Breakdown
Let's be honest: The real world doesn't give me as much time as I used to have. If I ran into a 13 year old version of myself I would tear my predictions apart. Back then I devoured Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News, pouring through stats to determine who was doing what in baseball. Now? I'm just happy that I know that the season started tonight, that the Cubs open tomorrow, and that I know why Tyler Colvin is. With that in mind, take these predictions for what they are: a common man's attempt at breaking it down.
AL East - 1. NY Yankees, 2. Tampa Bay Rays, 3. Boston Red Sox, 4. Baltimore Orioles, 5. Toronto Blue Jays
Why this will happen: New York made some smart moves this offseason (Hello Curtis Granderson) and some moves that boggle the mind (didn't we already try the Javier Vazquez in New York experiment once?), but what we know for sure is that if they stay healthy they are by far the most talented team in the AL. The Rays have so much young talent that it isn't funny, and I think that the Red Sox will wish they had a big bat who is clutch. Baltimore is a year or more away, and Toronto will struggle quite a bit.
One prediction to take to the bank: Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs last year while playing half his games in cavernous Comerica park in Detroit. Yankees stadium, where he will play half his games this year, turned Johnny Damon into a power hitter last year due to the short porch in left. ESPN is projecting Granderson to hit 25 home runs this year. Let's just say that I would take the over here. Way over. Like 35 or more.
AL Central - 1. Minnesota Twins, 2. Chicago White Sox, 3. Cleveland Indians, 4. Detroit Tigers, 5. Kansas City Royals
Why this will happen: Minnesota has the most talent, and they will trade for San Diego closer Heath Bell if their in house options don't fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. The White Sox have a closer who is about to melt down, and lack the punch in the middle of the lineup unless Quinten or Rios bounce back. While their rotation looks good I'm not entirely sold on Jake Peavy in the AL. The Indians have some young talent, but they aren't in the same class as the first two teams. I almost forgot about Detroit, which probably is not a good thing, and the Royals have one ace and one young first baseman ... and then who? If Grienke and Billy Butler are the first and last things people can identify on your team, and if you were thinking about starting Kyle Farnsworth, you may be in trouble.
One prediction to take to the bank: Zach Grienke will see his production fall off after his Cy Young campaign last year. Why? He's on my fantasy baseball team. Also, Fausto Carmona, of Cleveland Indians fame, will have a big bounce back year (15+ wins, sub 4.00 ERA).
AL West - 1. Seattle Mariners, 2. LA Angels, 3. Texas Rangers, 4. Oakland A's
Why this will happen: this division will be close, but the Mariners have the pitching and defense to take advantage of the Angels steps back. I like the team's build, and I think that LA may have lost too many pieces to keep their run of success alive. The Mariners success will be directly tied to how many stints on the DL Cliff Lee and Erick Bedard make. If the two lefties stay healthy(ish), along with King Felix, they will win some games. Texas is another competitor for the division; Oakland is at least a year away.
One prediction to take to the bank: Milton Bradley, with Ken Griffey Jr. to mentor him, will hit .300 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, and be considered to be a revelation. I will continue saying that the Cubs screwed up by not following the Dennis Rodman corollary: only pick up the head case if you have a strong on field leader and a strong coach.
NL East - 1. Philadelphia Phillies, 2. Florida Marlins, 3. Atlanta Braves, 4. New York Mets, 5. Washington Nationals
Why this will happen: Philadelphia is the most talented team in the NL, and perhaps in baseball. Roy Halliday might win 25 games this year if Brad Lidge doesn't blow every save. Florida has a ton of young talent as well (noticing a pattern) and Atlanta will also be in contention for the wild card, but I think Florida might have the horses to make the jump this year. New York is a poorly constructed team playing in a field that kills right handed hitters (bye, bye to that Jason Bay guy). Washington will finally be interesting when they call Strasburg up.
One prediction to take to the bank: Roy Halliday will win the NL CY Young award ... and Phillies fans will spend time wondering why the team didn't keep Cliff Lee too.
NL Central - 1. Chicago Cubs, 2. St. Louis Cardinals, 3. Cincinnati Reds, 4. Milwaukee Brewers, 5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6. Houston Astros
Why this will happen: The Cubs still don't have a leader, but they suddenly have some young position players poised to make the jump: Tyler Colvin, Sterling Castro, even Josh Vitters. The Cards are due some bad luck, and Pujols is slowly but surely breaking down. Also, Chris Carpenter is due for another Tommy John surgery. The Reds and the Brewers are two candidates for a dark horse run at the division title, but I think the Cubs can leg it out. I think the Astros will be really bad, and that Pittsburgh's young talent will surprise by avoiding a last place finish.
One prediction to take to the bank: the over under for number of times I bemoan the Alphonso Soriano contract this year is 50.5. I will go WAY over if Tyler Colvin looks as good this season as he did this spring ... yet has to sit behind Soriano because of how much he's being paid.
NL West - 1. Colorado Rockies, 2. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3. LA Dodgers, 4. SF Giants, 5. San Diego Pirates
Why this will happen: because the Dodgers have gone cheap and the Rockies and D' backs have talent. The Giants have some pitching, but little hitting. San Diego's top moment of the year will be seeing what kind of talent they can get for Heath Bell, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.
One prediction to take to the bank: If Brandon Webb makes 25 starts or more the Diamondbacks will be the number one contender for the division; if he doesn't they will finish third or worse.
AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Rays (Wild Card)
NL Playoff Teams: Phillies, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins (Wild Card)
ALCS - Yankees over Twins
NLCS - Phillies over Cubs
World Series: Phillies over Yankees
AL East - 1. NY Yankees, 2. Tampa Bay Rays, 3. Boston Red Sox, 4. Baltimore Orioles, 5. Toronto Blue Jays
Why this will happen: New York made some smart moves this offseason (Hello Curtis Granderson) and some moves that boggle the mind (didn't we already try the Javier Vazquez in New York experiment once?), but what we know for sure is that if they stay healthy they are by far the most talented team in the AL. The Rays have so much young talent that it isn't funny, and I think that the Red Sox will wish they had a big bat who is clutch. Baltimore is a year or more away, and Toronto will struggle quite a bit.
One prediction to take to the bank: Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs last year while playing half his games in cavernous Comerica park in Detroit. Yankees stadium, where he will play half his games this year, turned Johnny Damon into a power hitter last year due to the short porch in left. ESPN is projecting Granderson to hit 25 home runs this year. Let's just say that I would take the over here. Way over. Like 35 or more.
AL Central - 1. Minnesota Twins, 2. Chicago White Sox, 3. Cleveland Indians, 4. Detroit Tigers, 5. Kansas City Royals
Why this will happen: Minnesota has the most talent, and they will trade for San Diego closer Heath Bell if their in house options don't fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. The White Sox have a closer who is about to melt down, and lack the punch in the middle of the lineup unless Quinten or Rios bounce back. While their rotation looks good I'm not entirely sold on Jake Peavy in the AL. The Indians have some young talent, but they aren't in the same class as the first two teams. I almost forgot about Detroit, which probably is not a good thing, and the Royals have one ace and one young first baseman ... and then who? If Grienke and Billy Butler are the first and last things people can identify on your team, and if you were thinking about starting Kyle Farnsworth, you may be in trouble.
One prediction to take to the bank: Zach Grienke will see his production fall off after his Cy Young campaign last year. Why? He's on my fantasy baseball team. Also, Fausto Carmona, of Cleveland Indians fame, will have a big bounce back year (15+ wins, sub 4.00 ERA).
AL West - 1. Seattle Mariners, 2. LA Angels, 3. Texas Rangers, 4. Oakland A's
Why this will happen: this division will be close, but the Mariners have the pitching and defense to take advantage of the Angels steps back. I like the team's build, and I think that LA may have lost too many pieces to keep their run of success alive. The Mariners success will be directly tied to how many stints on the DL Cliff Lee and Erick Bedard make. If the two lefties stay healthy(ish), along with King Felix, they will win some games. Texas is another competitor for the division; Oakland is at least a year away.
One prediction to take to the bank: Milton Bradley, with Ken Griffey Jr. to mentor him, will hit .300 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, and be considered to be a revelation. I will continue saying that the Cubs screwed up by not following the Dennis Rodman corollary: only pick up the head case if you have a strong on field leader and a strong coach.
NL East - 1. Philadelphia Phillies, 2. Florida Marlins, 3. Atlanta Braves, 4. New York Mets, 5. Washington Nationals
Why this will happen: Philadelphia is the most talented team in the NL, and perhaps in baseball. Roy Halliday might win 25 games this year if Brad Lidge doesn't blow every save. Florida has a ton of young talent as well (noticing a pattern) and Atlanta will also be in contention for the wild card, but I think Florida might have the horses to make the jump this year. New York is a poorly constructed team playing in a field that kills right handed hitters (bye, bye to that Jason Bay guy). Washington will finally be interesting when they call Strasburg up.
One prediction to take to the bank: Roy Halliday will win the NL CY Young award ... and Phillies fans will spend time wondering why the team didn't keep Cliff Lee too.
NL Central - 1. Chicago Cubs, 2. St. Louis Cardinals, 3. Cincinnati Reds, 4. Milwaukee Brewers, 5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6. Houston Astros
Why this will happen: The Cubs still don't have a leader, but they suddenly have some young position players poised to make the jump: Tyler Colvin, Sterling Castro, even Josh Vitters. The Cards are due some bad luck, and Pujols is slowly but surely breaking down. Also, Chris Carpenter is due for another Tommy John surgery. The Reds and the Brewers are two candidates for a dark horse run at the division title, but I think the Cubs can leg it out. I think the Astros will be really bad, and that Pittsburgh's young talent will surprise by avoiding a last place finish.
One prediction to take to the bank: the over under for number of times I bemoan the Alphonso Soriano contract this year is 50.5. I will go WAY over if Tyler Colvin looks as good this season as he did this spring ... yet has to sit behind Soriano because of how much he's being paid.
NL West - 1. Colorado Rockies, 2. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3. LA Dodgers, 4. SF Giants, 5. San Diego Pirates
Why this will happen: because the Dodgers have gone cheap and the Rockies and D' backs have talent. The Giants have some pitching, but little hitting. San Diego's top moment of the year will be seeing what kind of talent they can get for Heath Bell, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.
One prediction to take to the bank: If Brandon Webb makes 25 starts or more the Diamondbacks will be the number one contender for the division; if he doesn't they will finish third or worse.
AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Rays (Wild Card)
NL Playoff Teams: Phillies, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins (Wild Card)
ALCS - Yankees over Twins
NLCS - Phillies over Cubs
World Series: Phillies over Yankees
Friday, July 31, 2009
With Condolences To Bill Simmons
What a mess Major League Baseball has gotten itself into. The reign of current commissioner Bud Selig really can't be more of a tragedy, only he's the idiot who got himself into this. With the news today that both of the heroes of the Boston Red Sox 2004 and 2007 championship teams, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, tested positive for PEDs in 2003 ... well let's just say that the hour is getting late, and the wheels are falling off this entire era.It was just the other day I was waxing poetic on Griffey Jr. and I still hope ... heck, maybe even pray at this point ... that he is/was clean. We need someone we can hang our hats on. But with Ortiz (Mr. "anyone who tests positive should be suspended for a year") and Manny (who we all said "he's too dumb to even complete a full steroids cycle" regarding) testing positive, the hit list continues:
- McGwire
- Sosa
- Bonds
- A-Rod
- Manny
- Big Papi
At what point do we stop being surprised? I think I'm already there, personally, but when I loaded up espn.com tonight I still found myself shaking my head. I'm not sure what I was shaking it in. It wasn't surprise, and it wasn't really disappointment either. The Sports Guy writes about people entering what he terms "the Tyson Zone" (scroll almost all the way to the bottom of the page, or just CTRL+F and search for Tyson Zone for Simmons' explanation). Basically, a person in the Tyson Zone is so crazy that no matter what you hear about them it doesn't really surprise you. I'd like to suggest that all of Major League Baseball has entered into the Tyson Zone. I honestly can't say I'd be shocked by anything at this point. You could tell me that Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were using at this point, and my only thought would
probably be "well they weren't using very effectively since they never topped 90 MPH with their fastballs."To be clear, I am not saying Glavine or Maddux used, anymore than I think that Griffey used. In fact, of all the superstars from the steroids era, I'd have to say they are the most pristine. But I am saying that nothing could really surprise me anymore. Baseball has put itself in an awful situation, and I'm not sure what they do with it. George Mitchell and his report has got to be considered a bit of a fraud now; there were tons of Yankees on the list and pretty much no Red Sox. Anybody now believe that Mitchell (a Red Sox insider) was, if not actively trying to distort the truth, at the very least actively not trying to taint his team?
You now have even more of the era tainted, but beyond the statistical taint we now have the biggest moment in baseball in my life tainted. Look, McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, A-Rod, they all have one thing in common: they didn't win a World Series. No champions were directly tainted by a huge superstar. But the 2004 Red Sox, with their improbable comeback from down 0-3 to the "hated" Yankees, as well as ending "The Curse of the Bambino" ... well that team was iconic. That team was the single most memorable baseball team in my lifetime. And now they are the single most tainted aspect of baseball's steroids era.
Sure, the individual records have been tainted for some time, but that we can mentally undo. We can mentally say "Maris is still number one with sixty-one" and "Hank Aaron is tops with 755." We can do this all too easily ... but how do we deal with a team who was tainted in such a drastic
way? I'm not sure, but I'm pretty certain Bill Simmons is going to have reconsider whether he really can die in peace after all. For once I actually have to agree with Ozzie Guillen: get the list out, the whole list, so we can move on. Get the whole list out, just so we can see how deep this goes, and so we can begin to deal with it.And so, on a day when my beloved Cubs traded two promising young right-handers for two lefties (one who is average, and one who is awful), I can't even complain about how we blew the chance to get what we really needed (Freddy Sanchez) from the very team we just let rip us off. No, I'm here no longer wondering how we got here ... I'm just wondering where we go from here on out. I finally do have an answer, however, for the Cubs fan who called in to WGN radio after Sosa's positive test. The caller argued that he was now happy that the Cubs collapsed in 2003, blew a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, and brought all the heartbreak on.
He was happy because, in light of Sosa's positive test, if we won it would have now been empty. At the time I thought "well, there's another Cubs fan justifying us choking." Now I can't help but agree. Having tainted personal records is one thing. Tainting an entire franchise and a couple of World Series titles? My condolences Mr. Simmons...
Thursday, July 23, 2009
The Way It's Supposed To Be
It's a beautiful thing really. When I look at the numbers I can't help but smile, and think to myself "this is how it's supposed to work, how it's supposed to happen." He's swinging away, with a batting average of .211, with ten home runs, with a paltry 27 RBI. He's 39 now, and we've watched him since he was 19. We saw his rise, his era of dominance. We thought "that's how it's supposed to be" when he made his triumphant return home, and then we hurt with him when it didn't work out in fairy tale fashion. Now he's back to his first home, and he's doing it the right way.If you never followed Ken Griffey Jr. closely, if you don't remember him when he was "The Kid" then perhaps this makes little difference to you. But he is, as Princess Leia would tell Ben Kenobi, "our only hope." One by one every epic slugger from his generation has fallen. McGwire won't talk about the past. Sosa can't speak English under pressure, and tested positive in 2003. Bonds' head is three times the size it was when he was
first winning MVPs. A-Rod and Manny fell this year as well, one to the 2003 tests, and the other to his thirst for female fertility drugs. Palmerio, one of the few 3,000 hit, 500 HR men in baseball history tested positive shortly after telling Congress he never had, and never would use steroids. These men fell under the pressure to be the best, the desire to make more money and extend their careers. Somehow, it would seem, Griffey rose above it all.All of this is a moot point if he ends up being tied to PEDs, but I can't believe he will. He drop off was far too steep, far too real for someone who was cheating. Look at Bonds, and his numbers from age 35 on: they are otherworldly. Griffey, the one who was always there, always the next legend, became very human at just the right time. He took the pay cut to go "back home" to Cincinnati, the place he saw his father win it all (it might seem crazy to praise Jr. for taking less when he still made over $100 million, but consider that he could have made twice that on the open market and it does come into focus). And from there on out the wheels fell off.
Griffey hit at least 40 home runs seven times in his big league career, but none of them occurred
after he turned 31. He won 9 Gold Glove awards for his stellar defense in center field, but none after he turned 30. He limped into a few All Star games after 30, but only because the fans wanted him there. Griffey's career breaks drastically into two eras: 1989-1999 and 2000-2009. In the first he was "The Kid," and he was good enough to be named to baseball's All-Century team in 1999. He was epic, an icon. In the second era he was injured constantly; quite frankly, his legs gave out on him. He struggled to stay healthy, and along with his legs went his defensive prowess, his power, his average ... just about everything.He was just never right after leaving Seattle for Cincinnati. He took less to go to his father's
team, but never got the magic, and never won. Last year he finally, after a few years of trade rumors, accepted a trade to the South Side of Chicago, but he hit only 3 home runs in over 40 games there, and was out of the post-season almost before it began. And this off season, when faced with the choice of more money and the weaker NL pitching with the Braves, or going back home, Griffey did what we all long to do. He went home. He went back where there was a fan base that would appreciate him, that would support him, that would embrace him. Even in his current state, Seattle looks at Griffey and sees The Kid, not the old man he has become.And when you think about it, this is how it's supposed to happen, this is how a legend realistically can go out. When you ask a 39 year old to hang it up, end his career, and move into retirement you can't expect it to be pretty. Sports history is peppered with instances of all time greats who can't leave on top. And baseball, in particular, illustrates this trend brilliantly.
Looking at baseball's most sacred fraternity, the 600 home run club, really shows you all you need to know. Bonds and Sosa have joined the 600 home run club, but neither of them are clean, and as such I won't consider them here. When you look at the other 3 members, the big three, then it becomes more apparent:Hank 
Aaron's last year saw him hit .229, Willie Mays hit .211 in his final year, and Babe Ruth hit only .181 on his way out. When seen in this context, Griffey fits in just right, sitting right with Mays at .211. That Griffey was humble enough to take this 
road, a road which, in the steroids era, was most certainly the road less taken ... we were blessed to see this, even if we don't yet appreciate it. He could have juiced, he could have gone the route Bonds did. Both of these men were all time greats without steroids; only one decided that being among the greatest was enough. Griffey could have fallen in with the other sluggers of his era, and he might have hit 800 home runs. Look at his career numbers; if you factor in the quicker recovery time and training benefits into his 2000-2009 stats it isn't that crazy of an idea. But then he wouldn't be an all time great: he'd be a cheat. Appreciate Griffey while you can, because he has done it with class, and there aren't too many like him left.
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