Week Seven Lines ... With Some Cubs Mixed In

I have a number of things on my mind that I'd like to write about, but given the time constraints I'll limit myself to a brief view on the state of the Cubs on the eve of the Theo Epstein era, and then get on to the lines.

Epstein comes to the Cubs having established himself as a giant killer. He killed the Yankees (albeit with a huge payroll) and killed the Curse of the Bambino ... twice. He was the GM who oversaw the 2004 and 2007 championships in Boston, and the renovation and rebirth of Fenway as a modern ancient ballpark. He has the name recognition, and he balances a desire to utilize new age statistic analysis with old school scouting techniques. But does Epstein have the chops to tackle the biggest mystery in major professional sports? That question is not the big one you'd think: why haven't the Cubs won the world series since 1908? That question, instead, is this: how is it possible that the Cubs haven't even been in the World Series since 1945?

The Cubs ineptitude is legendary; songs have been written about it, and it has become a part of the city's mystique. Most people know about the 2003 run that ended with three straight losses to the Florida Marlins. ESPN recently did a documentary on the Steve Bartman game, and the phenomena of "scapegoating" when teams lose. As I watched the documentary with my girlfriend, a Tigers fan, I had to explain what it is to be a Cubs fan. I explained Bartman, but also Gonzalez. I explained the sin that Dusty committed by waiting far too long to come out of the dugout to calm Prior down. I explained the sinking feeling, and what it's like to just know that it isn't going to work out for your team because it just can't. But above all else, something took her by surprise: 2003 was the first playoff series win that the Cubs had since 1908. Think about that.

Now, of course, some of that is due to the old set up, when one team went to the World Series from each league, and there was no playoffs. When the NL and AL started their own championship series there were then only two rounds. But it still drives the point home: the Cubs have one playoff series win since 1908, and prior to 2003 they had none. This is the legendary ineptitude that Theo now faces. The Red Sox won playoff series, and even made World Series with semi-regularity. The Cubs just lose.

That said, Epstein is a good move. I don't believe that he is the best move, and I'll be a bit befuddled if Andrew Friedman ends up leaving Tampa for Los Angeles and the Cubs never really looked into him. Given his impressive track record in Tampa, where he's had a payroll no higher than half of the Cubs annual payroll, and often times only 25% or less of the Cubs payroll, I'd like to see what he could do with the Cubs resources. I think that his scouting acumen, coupled with his discipline in signing contracts, would have been a unique fit for the Cubs. But we know what Theo can do with the Cubs resources. At his best he invests those resources heavily in the draft, building a minor league structure that becomes the backbone of major league teams. At his worst, he dumps tons of the money he has floating around into contracts that are too much for far too long. The last guy, Jim Hendry, had the latter skill down pat. He struggled mightily with the former. Who was the last minor league, before Castro, to be drafted by the Cubs and really thrive? That's the damning epitaph on Hendry's Cubs GM tombstone: Prior ... to Castro. As the Cubs aged they had nobody to step in. When injuries happened, nobody was ready to step in. The lack of young talent took what could have been a decade of playoff baseball in Chicago (from 2003 until present time) and instead gave us three distinct playoff seasons (2003, 2007 and 2008), as well as two almost there, but not quite years (2004 and, to a lesser extent, 2009).

This is essential because any year could be the year if things break just right. Hell, 2003 was nearly the year and it almost assuredly would have been if Alex ****ing Gonzalez hadn't handled that routine double play ball the same way my three year old nephew would have. (In case you were wondering, Gonzalez and Baker is where I lay all the blame for 2003). The Red Sox were not the best team in baseball in 2004 ... but they caught fire at the most unlikely of times (game four of the ALCS, down 3-0 to the Yankees) and didn't lose again. The key is that they had made the playoffs that year, and had a team that was good enough. This year, much like the last time they made a run like this, St. Louis has a pretty average team. They backed in to the playoffs, and had a pretty ugly regular season. Still, like the year they beat the Tigers, they may very well win it all. Any team can catch fire over a 15-19 game stretch. The White Sox in 2005 is another example of this fact: they were not that good, but they caught fire. And now they have what the Cubs haven't since 1908.

So the key to the farm system is that it helps to sustain playoff viability over a longer period of time. Even the Yankees, with their history or trading prospects and losing draft picks to get veterans via trade or free agency, have frequently brought up prospects who help. They practically print money, but they know the importance of cheap in house options that can be accessed on short notice. Hendry never got that memo. Epstein has to remember it. He needs to develop a system that will produce a Bucholtz, Lester, and Pedroia, among others. And that will take time. If I was going to hand write an agenda for Theo, it would look like this:

1. Spend at least 50% more on the draft next year than you did this year.
2. Pay someone to make Soriano go away. You'll have to eat $10 million per year to do it, but he won't be blocking your prospects at least.
3. Give Zambrano one last chance. One of two things will happen: he will show he doesn't have what it takes, and you just cut him, or he will look good, and you sell high on him during a contract year. If you try to cut bait now you gain nothing.
4. Trade Marlon Bird for prospects.
5. Let Aramis walk if he really wants to, and take the draft picks. If he chooses to stay, remind him he must be a leader.
6. Offer Carlos Pena arbitration. If he takes it, great: you have a one year stop gap at 1st with decent numbers and a good glove. If he doesn't, great: you get more draft picks.
7. Trade Carlos Marmol tomorrow.
8. Trade Geo Soto the day after tomorrow.
9. Trade Ryan Dempster in July.
10. Remind yourself that on the big league roster you currently have two untouchables (Castro and Garza) and two almost untouchables (Cashner and Barney). Everyone else can go, all in an effort to build towards tomorrow.

Epstein will hopefully avoid falling into the Pujols/Fielder trap by remembering that good 1st basemen who slug are a dime a dozen, and that a long contract to an elite player is wasted capital at this point. Simply put, the team most likely will not do too great in the next few years. That's why I didn't put "Fire Quade" as the top thing to do. Keeping Quade gives an easy scapegoat when the team is 20 games under .500 in June or July, so I can understand the logic in keeping him. If he does get rid of him, he needs to bring Ryne Sandberg in, no questions asked. I'm not a huge Sandberg apologist, but I do know that he is the only person on the market that would have the unconditional patience from the fans necessary to make it through a few losing years before the team is good again. No matter what direction Epstein decides to go, I hope that a multiple year rebuilding plan is a core concept. If it is the team will be able to build the core to make the playoffs 7 or 8 times in a ten year period of time. That will give them the best chance to win their second playoff series since 1908 ... and make their first World Series since 1945 ... and, by default, their best chance to win their first World Series since 1908.

On to the picks:

Last Week Against The Spread: 6-5-2
Last Week Straight Up: 9-4

Season Against The Spread: 44-42-4
Season Straight Up: 61-29

DAY GAMES

Browns (-3) over Seattle - This game is the consummate toss up in my mind. Whitehurst is making his first start, but he looked better than Jackson for Seattle last week. Cleveland has looked lost most of this year, and Hardesty for Hillis is probably a wash, although there is the potential that Hardesty might go off. It feels like this is a game where Seattle has just a little more gumption, but I'll just ride the favorite and be glad I'm not in a market where I'll have to watch either of these games. What's that? I'm working Sunday? Never mind...

Atlanta (+4) over Detroit - I've given this a good deal of thought, but at the end of the day the San Francisco game feels a bit like a turning point for the Lions, and not the good kind. I still believe that they'll make the playoffs as a wild card, but I also think their over hyped start, particularly when coupled with the nature of their close, come from behind wins, indicates a team that will lose a number of more games. Atlanta needs this game a lot more.

Houston (+3) over Tennessee - This was another tough game to pick. I could talk myself into either team here, particularly with my correct view on Houston falling apart the last few weeks. But Houston needs to win this game to keep the upper hand in the division, and I've got to believe that somehow they'll find a way to win. Otherwise, the Titans may win the division going away ... at 9-7.

Denver (+1) over Miami - Miami has a horrible home record, and Denver has Tebow starting in a defacto home game. I may not buy his skills in the big picture, but in the moment he can carry this team to a victory easily.

San Diego (+1) over NY Jets - a lot of close lines that could go either way this week. I'll pick San Diego because the Sanchize continues to prove me (and his countless other doubters) right with each errant throw.

Chicago (-2) over Tampa Bay - Okay Martz. Cutler cussed at you, then you call an offensive game plan that actually makes sense. You've got me buying in for this week, but don't you dare betray my trust.

Carolina (-3) over Washington - Let's just say that I believe Grossman > Beck. And I wasn't exactly a Grossman apologist. In fact, I was the opposite of that. I was a truth teller. Bad Rex!

LATE GAMES

Oakland (-6) over Kansas City - As scary as it is, this only makes sense if Palmer actually starts. That's how bad Boller is.

Pittsburgh (-4) over Arizona - Pittsburgh can't seem to decide if they want to be good, or bad. Arizona knows they are bad. I think the Steelers can cover this line.

Dallas (-14) over St. Louis - The Rams are bad, and now they start A.J. Feely. I can't wait to see how Tony Romo makes me regret this pick.

Green Bay (-10) over Minnesota - How, in the world, is Dallas a heavier favorite than Green Bay? This is a good line.

SUNDAY NIGHT

New Orleans (-14) over Indy - Indy has a great start on the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes. Look for New Orleans to help them continue to work towards another once in a generation QB.

MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore (-9) over Jacksonville - The Ravens handled Houston last week at -8... they should be able to handle Jacksonville at -9.