NFL - Week Six Picks

Last Week Against The Spread: 9-4
Last Week Straight Up: 10-3

Season Against The Spread: 38-37-2
Season Straight Up: 52-25

And so, with a great week overall, I'm sitting fairly pretty heading into week six. Still, last week's lines were pretty easy, not requiring a great deal of thinking. The big shockers (Seattle beating the Giants, the 49ers killing the Bucs) were definitive blows to my logic, but the rest fell in line. Accordingly, this week I'll be sticking to my guns, with minor adjustments to my thinking, particularly as it pertains to the 49ers who appear that they may actually be good.

But before I delve into the lines, let me spare a few moments to comment on the state of my Bears. It seems that now, after years of complaining about Lovie Smith, and pointing out how inept he is, the rest of the world is catching up to my opinion. Everywhere you look there are articles breaking down how poor this team is, and how poorly coached it is. From the front office down there appears to be no semblance of a coherent plan. This truly is a situation where completely cleaning house is necessary ... but they unnecessarily extended Lovie after last year, all but guaranteeing that he will get two more years after this one. The Bears' ownership is far too cheap to can a coach with that much guaranteed money left on the contract.

My Lovie Smith stat of the week for last week was this: after four weeks the Bears had taken 19 time outs. One was taken for the traditional purpose of stopping the clock to conserve time. One was taken as a result of losing a challenge (something that Lovie is better than most at ... but I digress). One was taken because the lineman couldn't tie his shoe. The other SIXTEEN were taken by the offense because they couldn't get lined up right. Think about that... sixteen of nineteen time outs... and that's your Lovie Smith stat of the week.

On to the picks:

DAY GAMES

Atlanta (-4) over Carolina - Cam Newton is the prototype for the Bill Walsh quote right now: he's just good enough to lose you the game. Two years from now? If he can keep his head on straight and mature he may be just great enough to win it all for you.

Indianapolis (+7) over Cincinnati - I can't believe that Cincinnati is 3-2, and I also can't believe that they are a seven point favorite. Marvin Lewis is off to a strong start for coach of the year.

San Francisco (+5) over Detroit - this game is right in the Vegas zone, where I don't know which way to go. I'll ultimately take the points, but hedge my bets by saying Detroit will win. So there.

Green Bay (+15) over St. Louis - Can I get a refund on my St. Louis to win the NFC West bet? I was sucked in like a lot of other people. In other news, Aaron Rodgers is incredibly hot right now, and may just salvage my fantasy season. I've had to pardon Drew Brees before for saving a fantasy season; I'm not sure that I can do the same for Rodgers.

Buffalo (+3) over NY Giants - the Giants, at home, are the favorites, so Vegas is saying these teams are even. I'd buy that evaluation, but I like the roll the Bills are on, and the Giants showed last week that they are vulnerable against the pass. If Tavaris could throw on them I bet Fitzpatrick can as well.

Jacksonville (+13) over Pittsburgh - This doesn't look right... even with a line this high.

Pittsburgh (-13) over Jacksonville - I don't like this either. But okay.

Washington (+2) over Philadelphia - how is Philly favored here? Am I missing something. Or, right. Bad Rex.

LATE GAMES

Oakland (-7) over Cleveland - Don't look now ... but the Raaaaiiiiiiidddddeeeeerrrrrsssss are a pretty decent team.

Houston (+8) over Baltimore - If Matt Schaub plays.

Baltimore (-8) over Houston - If Shaub doesn't play.

Baltimore (-8) over Houston - final answer.

Patriots (-7) over Dallas - this seems too easy.

New Orleans (-5) over Tampa - I like the Saints by a TD in this one.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bears (-3) over VikQueens - Woo Hoo! I get to pick the Bears!

MONDAY NIGHT

NY Jets (-7) over Miami - With Henne out this should be higher.