NFL: The Midseason Report

Wow! It's been nearly two months (two months tomorrow, in fact) since I posted here. Let's just say that I've been really busy, and life has gotten in the way. But let's also say that I'll try to do better. We are at the half way point of the NFL season, so it seems like a good time to see how absolutely awful my preseason NFL picks were. So what we'll do is look at my predictions for how the divisions would finish on September 1st, and then see where they are today. Then I'll do some revisionist history, and tell you where I went wrong, and how I see it playing out now. Also, just a reminder that it's not good to make outlandish statements after one week of the NFL season, particularly when you only get to watch a game or two. Without any further ado, here we go:

AFC EAST:

Then: New England (13-3), Miami (9-7), Buffalo (8-8), NY Jets (6-10)

Now: New England (6-2), NY Jets (4-4), Miami (3-5), Buffalo (3-5)

Comments: Not a bad start for me, as New England clearly seems to be the class of the division, and I could easily see Miami finishing second in this division. I wrote back in September that if the Jets were lucky they'd get a Mirer level rookie year from Sanchez, and that seems to be about right. I was wrong about Buffalo, and if nothing else has been driven into my soul about the NFL this year it is this: if you don't have an offensive line, your team is going to suck. Somehow Buffalo is still 3-5, but they are really kind of bad. Thus far I'll take this division as a win.

NEW PREDICTION: New England (12-4), Miami (8-8), NY Jets (7-9) Buffalo (5-11)


AFC North:

Then: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (11-5), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (5-11)

Now: Pittsburgh (6-2), Cincinnati (6-2), Baltimore (4-4), Cleveland (1-7)

Comments: Ok, so I cheated and put Pittsburgh in 1st place now, even though Cincinnati actually beat them and is in first. But Pittsburgh is going to win this weekend, and that will be that, so they will be in first place. I promise. Beyond that, this division doesn't look too far off. Baltimore's defense got really old overnight, and I wasn't thinking that would happen, so that explains my being off there a bit. I wrote of Cincinnati at the time that "(t)he Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner." That's great analysis if you ask me. By the way, it just so happens that Palmer is healthy, Ocho isn't finished, and Ced Benson is still a punk ... but an extremely talented punk who actually can run the ball. They still have an incompetent owner, but the pieces have begun to gel together. Still, after Pittsburgh beats them this week (come on Steelers!) they will be relegated to Wild Card status. Which is still impressive. Baltimore might be able to make a bit of a run, but they won't be contenders like they were last year. Cleveland? Turns out I thought they were way too good by estimating five wins, or that Mangini was even mediocre. They are really bad; so bad that when the Bears beat them 30-6 nobody was excited because they knew it should have been sixty to six.

NEW PREDICTION: Pittsburgh (12-4), Cincinnati (10-6), Baltimore (9-7), Cleveland (2-14)


AFC SOUTH:

Then: Indianapolis (10-6), Houston (9-7), Tennessee (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8)

Now: Indianapolis (8-0), Houston (5-4), Jacksonville (4-4), Tennessee (2-6)

Comments: Boy did I almost nail this one right on the head. In fact, after Indy fades in the 2nd half (which I think is almost assuredly going to happen due to their injuries) it will make it look even better. My logic was around the table sound, and I could see the Titans going on a 9-1 or 8-2 run from their 0-6 start, making 9-7 a distinct possibility. If Houston could have taken advantage of Indy trying to hand them that game last week then I would have been on cloud 9 here. Still, let's say Indy continues to win games they shouldn't ... this will play out like this:

NEW PREDICTION: Indianapolis (13-3)*, Houston (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8), Tennessee (7-9)

*Let's just say that if I was a gambling man I'd be foaming at the mouth thinking about betting against Indianapolis in the playoffs this year. Their entire D is banged up, they have no running game, and a ton of inexperience in the passing game. And I'll admit it: Peyton Manning has jumped into the pantheon level of QBs, and he is good enough to carry a team. But this team is really bad other than him, Freeney, Wayne and Clark. And four top players isn't enough in the NFL.


AFC West:

Then: San Diego (11-5), Kansas City (7-9), Denver (7-9), Oakland (5-11)

Now: Denver (6-2), San Diego (5-3), Oakland (2-6), Kansas City (1-7)

Comments: Here is my first big "swing and a miss," at least at first glance. The AFC West has taught me a number of things. First, having talent around you and competent people coaching you is more important that being a great QB. For exhibit A, look at Kyle Orton. For exhibit B, look at Matt Cassel. I had both KC and Denver at 7-9 based on their QB for the most part. Cassell looked like the better bet heading into the year, even as I was saying that "Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver." But KC has almost no talent around Cassel, and Denver is loaded with talent on offense. My huge miss on KC aside, I was pretty close, and think it'll shake out this way:

NEW PREDICTION: San Diego (11-5), Denver (10-6), KC (3-13), Oakland (3-13)


NFC East:

Then: Philadelphia (12-4), NY Giants (10-6), Dallas (8-8), Washington (6-10)

Now: Dallas (6-2), Philadelphia (5-3), NY Giants (5-4), Washington (2-6)

Comments: I totally underestimated how much of an improvement jettisoning T.O. would make. Romo looks free, Miles Austin came out of semi-nowhere to become the next big thing, and they managed to play coaching Russian Roulette with Wade Phillips and Andy Reid and watched Andy be the one who wet himself first. The Giants are who I thought they were, so that's nice at least. Honestly, the Eagles aren't far behind what I thought they were, so that's not too bad. Washington is even worse. The question comes down to this: do I think Dallas will choke now, or in the playoffs? Umm....


NEW PREDICTION: Dallas (11-5), Philadelphia (11-5), NY Giants (10-6), Washington (3-13)


NFC North:

Then: Chicago (13-3), Green Bay (11-5), Minnesota (9-7), Detroit (3-13)

Now: **sigh** Minnesota (7-1), Green Bay (4-4), The 2nd Greatest Franchise In NFL History Who Can't Seem To Have The Fortitutde To Fire The Entire Worthless Management Staff (4-5), Detroit (1-7)

Comments: The sports Gods hate me. I'll write an entire post about the stupid Bears sometime soon. Other than that, all that is relevant is to say that I underestimated how much having a competent QB would improve the Vikqueens.

NEW PREDICTION: Minnesota (12-4), Green Bay (8-8), Lovie's Catatonic Corpse (6-10), Detroit (3-13)


NFC South:

Then: New Orleans (11-5), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (8-8), Tampa Bay (5-11)

Now: New Orleans (8-0), Atlanta (5-3), Carolina (3-5), Tampa Bay (1-7)

Comments: Boy, that looks pretty good, doesn't it? My logic seems to have been sound, and so there really isn't too much to say, except that the Saints look even better than I thought they would be. I had the Falcons missing the Wild Card back in early September back when I thought that the NFC North was going to give Brett Favre a fight; now that it's apparent nobody wants to get in the way of his comeback tour ... let's just say I have second thoughts.


NEW PREDICTION: New Orleans (14-2), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (7-9), Tampa Bay (3-13)


NFC West:

Then: San Fransisco (9-7), Seattle (7-9), Arizona (7-9), St. Louis (5-11)

Now: Arizona (5-3), San Fransisco (4-5), Seattle (3-5), St. Louis (1-7)

Comments: The Cards have shown more resilience than I expected, but the division is just as boring as I envisioned. Congrats to Mike Singletary on the ugliest win I've ever heard of last night. That's all.


NEW PREDICTION: Arizona (9-7), San Fransisco (8-8), Seattle (7-9), St. Louis (2-14)


As for the playoffs, I had the following teams in at that time, in order from top seed to bottom seed:

AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York

If I had to redo that now it would look like this:

AFC: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver
NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, Atlanta

Rather than do match-ups, let's just say that I feel strongly that Indy would lose to New England, Pittsburgh for sure, San Diego probably, and Cincinnati possibly. They will most likely be the top seed, but I don't see it working out for them. I'm still saying the AFC champs will be the Pats, with the runner up being Pittsburgh. If it plays out with the seeds I've predicted here, the winner of the round two game with New England hosting Pittsburgh will be your AFC champion.

As for the NFC, it appears to go through a dome or a warm weather city. Talk about taking a step towards flag football. That said, it's got to be either New Orleans or Minnesota, and right now my pick would be New Orleans; barring an injury to Brees they seem to be unstoppable. So, at the midway point, my prediction would be:

NEW ENGLAND 38 - NEW ORLEANS 35

The exciting thing? We get to see Pats-Colts this weekend (I'll take the Pats +3), and the Pats-Saints in a few weeks. Even with the Bears failing to show up this year, it's still got potential to be a great NFL season.