The NFL has become the king sport in America today. Baseball might have been our national pastime, but following the heartbreak of the strike in 1994 MLB is no longer king. Even the resurgence of baseball has ended up giving the sports fan more heartbreak than joy. As steroids have torn through the fabric of baseball we now have an entire generation of records, Hall of Fame "caliber" players, and even World Series titles which have about the same amount of credibility as Rod Blagojevich. Basketball reached its brief apex through the 1980s, with the help of Bird and Magic, and culminated in the 1990s, with the most marketable person ever heading their sport in Michael Jordan (who goes into the Hall of Fame this month if you haven't been following
ESPN). By the year 2000, however, the NBA had been inundated with a form of basketball more correctly referred to by one of my readers as "gangter-ball," and the lifestyles the players were presenting did little to dispel that impression.Thus, through my lifetime the NFL has become king of all. It presents the best product, with the best distribution (Sundays suddenly become a defacto vacation). I'm psyched for the start of the NFL season; it feels like a long lost friend coming back again to have a beer with you. Like a long lost lover's passionate kiss. I could go on, but I think you probably get the point. My fantasy football drafts (yes, plural) are this Sunday back to back. I am thoroughly and nauseatingly prepared for both. I even bought my new Bears hat for the year, as well as my Jay Cutler jersey. Yes, you can say I have bought into the Cutler era faster than any sports era in Chicago sports.
But through all this I have had an incredibly difficult time pinning my predictions down. I've changed them every time I've sat down to look at them. There is only one division winner I'd say I'm 100% sure of, and only two others that I feel reasonably certain of. Other than those three (all in the AFC by the way) I can see this going a number of different ways. Still, I've got to try. And so this is my attempt to tell the future, starting with the way the divisions will break down, and the going through the playoffs, culminating in my Super Bowl pick. The last three years my picks for the Super Bowl were as follows:
2006 - Colts over Bears (I wish I had gotten this one wrong, not right)
2007 - Pats over Bears (Ended up Giants over Pats)
2008 - Steelers over Cowboys (Ended up as Steelers over Cardinals)
So two of the past three winners right, and four of the past six teams right. On the flip side, my NFC teams the past two years haven't even made the playoffs. And, once again, the NFC is tougher for me to pick than the AFC. So we'll see how I do. I'll pick rough records of finish for each team, but just a reminder: I take way too much time doing this to begin with, so I have not gone through each team's schedule to see if these records are all possible. I'm just tossing out numbers that feel right. Without further ado:
AFC East:
1. New England (13-3) - Brady is back, and he has more tools than ever. Moss and Welker are still his wide receivers, and he has a plethora of talented running backs at his disposal as well. The defense is getting younger, getting faster, and the addition of Derrick Burgess will greatly benefit the pass rush. This team has all the tools, and shouldn't have any issues securing the division crown, and little issue locking down the number one seed in the AFC. The Hoody just doesn't blow opportunities like this one.
2. Miami (9-7) - Miami is due to fall back to Earth after taking advantage of a last place schedule and the Brady injury last year. Chad Pennington, while efficient, isn't the greatest QB ever, and the Pats showed last year that the Wildcat can be stopped when game planned for. With a first place schedule this year the Dolphins could be in for a greater fall than this, but I believe in the next two teams even less.
3. Buffalo (8-8) - The offensive line is questionable, Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three games because he likes to smoke Mary Jane, and T.O. is old. All these things suggest that Trent Edwards will have a hard time getting the offense over the hump. If Owens has another year left (an increasingly big if) then perhaps they can leapfrog Miami here. Otherwise I feel more comfortable with them here.
4. NY Jets (6-10) - The Jets will be taking a step back this year but a step forward for the future. Developing Sanchez is a good idea, and they have a good running game. They are a little thin at WR, but Sanchez is young and will probably struggle. If they are lucky he can have a Rick Mirer level rookie year (which, many forget, was the gold standard before Peyton Manning's rookie year), but I don't see him pulling a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
AFC North:
1. Pittsburgh (12-4) - The Steelers had the toughest schedule in the NFL last year and survived, winning it all. I'm almost as sure about this pick as I was about the Pats winning the East, but the Steelers will have a bit more competition for the division crown. Still, with Big Ben, Hines and Santonio, Fast Willie, Mwelde and the potential of Mendenhal out of the backfield this team should be potent on offense. And the defense, of course, will knock your socks off. And you helmet. Possibly your jock as well. Mike Tomlin is one of the best young coaches in the NFL, and he fits the city and team perfectly.
2. Baltimore (11-5) - It's very dangerous picking two teams who made the playoffs the year before to both do well again, but Baltimore's defense is so dangerous that I can't help it. They were the second best team in the NFL last year, after the Steelers, and I can't see them regressing. If anything they should be better this year, with Ray Rice taking on more of the duties at RB and Joe Flacco getting another year of experience at QB. The two games between the Steelers and Ravens this year should be much watch TV for any true football fan.
3. Cincinnati (7-9) - The Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner.
4. Cleveland (5-11) - Brady Quinn ... Derric Anderson ... does it matter? Braylon Edwards will drop whatever he throws to them anyway. Jamal Lewis is done at RB, but they do have a few young prospects there. It'll just take more than one year for Mangini to turn the Browns into the mediocre team he turned the Jets into.
AFC South:
1. Indianapolis (10-6) - Last year I correctly predicted that the Colts streak of division titles would end, and this year I was prepared to predict that their streak of playoff appearances would end. A few things changed, however, and now I find myself putting them here. It has more to do with this divisions talent level, as well as major question marks on the other teams. The teams in this division should beat each other up to the point where it will be tough to win more than ten games or so. As much as I would love to see Peyton Manning begin transitioning into the portion of his career where he can be nothing but a stat hungry jerk (which, well, he is), I think he's got one more division title in him. That said, I will say it loud an clear for all the Colts fans out there: this team is closer to missing the playoffs than it is to a Super Bowl appearance. Take it to the bank.
2. Houston (9-7) - The Texans, if QB Matt Schaub is healthy, have a potent offense and a rapidly improving defense. Steve Slaton was a revelation at RB last year, and he is ready and able to make the jump to top ten talent at the position this year. Andre Johnson is the best WR in the league, and TE Owen Daniels and WR Kevin Walter are great secondary options. This team might end up surprising a number of people this year.
3. Tennessee (9-7) - Kerry Collins ... Vince Young ... no WR to speak of ... and they lost their best player (DT Albert Hanesworth) to free agency. Yes, as good as they looked last year, I see a step back this year. Collins is old, has nobody to throw to, and they will have to pass more this year with the defense likely regressing a bit.
4. Jacksonville (8-8) - This division will be tight, and all four teams might be in contention as late as weeks 15 and 16 this year. The Jags will see improvements from Jones-Drew and Garrard, but they still feel like the low man on the totem pole to me.
AFC West:
1. San Diego (11-5) - If only Norv Turner wasn't the coach here I'd feel a lot better, because there is a ton to like. LaDanian Tomlinson seems primed for one last gasp of superstardom. Phillip Rivers is a superstar. Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson, as well as Darren Sproles, are all world talents and game breakers. The defense has a ton of talent, and Ron Rivera is calling plays now (which Bears fans can tell you is a great thing). This team might underachieve during the regular season, but once again you don't want to face them in the playoffs. They are so talented. Just ask Colts fans.
2. Kansas City (7-9) - Cassel will have to prove he isn't a one year wonder who was throwing to Moss and Welker, and Larry Johnson will have to prove he has something left in the tank. This team has a number of up and coming players, but it'll take it more than one year to gel.
3. Denver (7-9) - Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver. If Knowshon Moreno is ever healthy they will be a little better, but Brandon Marshall may be a lost cause. The defense, also, will need more than one year to go from a joke to respectable.
4. Oakland (5-11) - If you can't tell I don't have much hopes for the AFC west. Oakland has a QB in JaMarcus Russell who may never make "the jump." They have a cast of nobodies at WR, and a potentially great RB in Darren McFadden. If Oakland has a good defense they would be wise to run, run, run (they have depth too with Fargas and Bush). But they need to get the head coach to stop punching his assistants. It's bad for team chemistry.
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia (12-4) - The Eagles have a deep group at the skill positions, with options at RB and WR. McNabb should be able to put together another good year, and the defense, while it will miss the late Jim Johnson quite a bit, should still be able to come up with big plenty of big plays. The pick up of Michael Vick was an example of a high risk - high reward play: if Vick is able to play a role in the offense it is likely he will help the team score, but on the flip side he may be more of a distraction than a boon to the team. Johnson's death is the biggest reason not to like the Eagles this year, but McNabb now has more options than ever before. They are the pick in the tough NFC East.
2. NY Giants (10-6) - Eli Manning just received the most outrageous contract in quite some time, and he still has nobody to throw to. I may be proven wrong, but right now his career quarter back rating is worse than Jon Kitna's. I just don't see throwing all that money on a player who, at the time of his Super Bowl performance, had the same QB numbers as Rex Grossman. Furthermore, if you look at his numbers last year with Plaxico Burress and then without it becomes obvious: without Plaxico Eli is very average. The Giants still have a good defense and a good running game. If they play it smart they can still make the playoffs, but if they try to pretend Eli is anything other than an average QB they will be in trouble.3. Dallas (8-8) - Dallas burned me last year, and all the issues with the defense and WR core this preseason haven't endeared me to them. Romo is good, and they have a number of good backs, but Wade Phillips is still the coach, and Jerry Jones is still dictator. They might be a game or two better than this, but then again they might be a game or two worse.
4. Washington (6-10) - It's doubtful that any team in this division finishes with this poor of a record, but the Redskins are the odds on favorites to do it if one of them does. Jason Campbell, by all reports, is a mess. Jim Zorn is waiting to be fired. Clinton Portis is getting older, as is Santana Moss. Plus, when was the last time that the big ticket free agent actually paid off? If you guessed Reggie White I'd have to agree with you.
NFC North:
1. Chicago (13-3) - Yes, I just said 13-3. Have you watched the Bears in the preseason? I know it's just "doesn't even count" football, but seriously, how can you not love this team? Cutler looks sharp, is making smart throws, and can hit a laser beam throw down field without blinking on the run with two three hundred pound linemen bearing down on him. Forte might catch 90 balls out of the backfield, and is looking great with the defense unable to put 8 men in the box every play. Our defense looks rejuvenated. Before I watched some games this was a three team race in my mind; after watching them I'd sold on the Bears. I am prepared to buy three more Bears jerseys so I can just rotate seven each week. Right now I have Walter Payton, Brian Urlacher, Devin Hester and Jay Cutler. I'd like to add Mike Singletary for sure. Other suggestions?
2. Green Bay (11-5) - The Packers have one of footballs top ten QBs in Aaron Rodgers, a good
running game, great receivers, and the switch to the 3-4 defense is reportedly going amazingly well. All they needed was a little extra motivation ... you know, something to really piss them off ... something to make all of them feel betrayed, and to unite their fans behind Rodgers and move past that other guy. What could do that? Hmm.........3. Minnesota (9-7) - ... I know! Brett Favre could continue towards his goal of breaking MJ's record for most un-retirements! I mean, seriously, at least Jordan waited a year and a half to unretire during his shortest stint. I thought the Vikes were contenders, but I just can't see this Favre thing ending well. Too much bad karma. Plus, the Williams boys could be lost for four games, which would put their defense in the tank. I'm just excited for when Favre retires again
this offseason so he can join Mike Holmgren wherever Mike is coaching next year.4. Detroit (3-13) - I sense a three game improvement from last year Lions fans!
NFC South:
1. New Orleans (11-5) - This division is also tough, but the Saints have perhaps the leagues second most potent offense, and it could be the most potent if Reggie Bush ever becomes anything other than the answer to the question "who is the most hated QB shoving RB at Notre Dame." The defense, under the tutelage of Greg Williams, should be improved. And don't forget that Brees put up those insane numbers last year with his number one receiver, Marques Colston, out most of the year.
2. Atlanta (10-6) - Atlanta had a very easy schedule last year, and has a hard one this year. Michael Turner will almost certainly regress a bit, but the addition of Tony Gonzalez at TE should help cover that. If everything goes well they should be in contention for a Wild Card spot, but I think they'll end up falling just short.
3. Carolina (8-8) - Deangelo Williams will not come close to last year, and Jonathan Stewart is already hurt. I feel bad for Steve Smith since Jake Delhomme is throwing him the ball. Delhomme was shot before he laid the biggest egg ever in the playoffs last year. The defense should be alright, but in this division, playing a first place schedule, they are in for a regression.
4. Tampa Bay (5-11) - Let's just say that change isn't always easy. And let's also say that I loved Byron Leftwich when he was at Marshall and leave it at that.
NFC West:
1. San Fransico (9-7) - That's all the better you should have to be to win this division, and I'm drinking the Mike Singletary Kool-Aid. Defense + running the ball + discipline = winning football. Shaun Hill is a competent QB to boot.
2. Seattle (7-9) - They are due for a bounce back if, and this is a big if, Matt Hasselbeck has something, anything left in the tank. But this division, bad as it is, won't be won by this team. I wonder if Chris Berman will pick them to win the NFC again...
3. Arizona (7-9) - Let's just say that I'm also skeptical that Kurt Warner can stay healthy for another 16 game season. Let's also throw in there that this defense isn't as good as it looked in the playoffs. And, just for fun, let's remember that Super Bowl losers almost never make the playoffs the next year. Even New England missed it last year.
4. St. Louis (5-11) - I hear Football Outsiders telling me they are the most likely team to see a huge win increase this year. But that's assuming that Marc Bulger didn't die a few years back. I think he might have. St. Louis may need a new QB, and until that is resolved they are in trouble.
So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York
Which would give us the following first round matchups:
AFC - San Diego over Houston, Baltimore over Indianapolis
NFC - New Orleans over New York, Green Bay over San Francisco
And the following second round matchups:
AFC - New England over Baltimore, Pittsburgh over San Diego
NFC - Chicago over Green Bay, Philadelphia over New Orleans
And the following championship game matchups:
AFC - New England over Pittsburgh
NFC - Chicago over Philadelphia
And the following Super Bowl result:
New England 24 - Chicago 27
You're darn right I just picked the Bears to win it all. With a QB on board for the first time since
Sid Luckman, doesn't it just feel right? Man am I ready for some football...
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