Last week's results:
Houston 19 Cincinnati 13 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Green Bay 24 Minnesota 10 (I won straight up but lost against the spread... damn you Joe Webb!!!)
Baltimore 24 Indianapolis 9 (I won against the spread and straight up)
Seattle 24 Washington 14 (I won against the spread and straight up)
So: 3-1 against the spread, 4-0 straight up.
This week brings four matchups that can best be described as "tasty." Whereas last week we had to suffer through Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis and RGIII's knee, this week we get what should be four great games. However, the AFC lines are SUPER high leading to the terrible situation where I get tempted into hedging a pick by taking the points but picking that team to lose.
Baltimore (+9) over Denver
The rationale: See, that's exactly what happened! It's like I couldn't even avoid it. How can I take the Ravens, plus the points? Here's how: one TD, seven INTs. That's Peyton Manning's career numbers outdoors in the cold in the playoffs. He's had an otherworldly year, and it's not going to be windy or snowy in Denver, but it will be around 10 degrees and dropping throughout the game. However, I don't know that I believe Baltimore can WIN the game outright. They looked great last week, but were playing one of the worst playoff teams in the history of the NFL according to advanced metrics. This week, they go on the road and play the presumptive MVP. Besides, doesn't it feel like Peyton is SUPPOSED to host the AFC title game?
The pick: Denver 24 Baltimore 23 (FG as time expires)
Green Bay (+3) over San Francisco
The rationale: I think the Packers peaked way too early last year, and it bit them in the ass in the playoffs. This year? They were left for dead early, gradually got healthy on defense, and are peaking at the right time. Even scarier? Aaron Rodgers had an incredible year, only nobody noticed because of the years that Peyton, ADP, and RGIII had. Meanwhile, San Francisco's defense has looked positively human since the injury to Justin Smith. The game is in San Fran, where the weather is fine, but this Packers team can light it up. Under the gun, who are you going to pick: Colin Kapernick or Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, I thought so.
The pick: Green Bay 27 San Francisco 20
Seattle (+3) over Atlanta
The rationale: Atlanta looks very poor in all advanced metrics: they can't run, their D isn't good, and their special teams is average at best. Seattle, on the other hand, ranks in the top five in pretty much every advanced metric. The only thing that gives me pause is the injury to Clemons, the DE in Seattle, and how much that will hurt their ability to get up field on the pass rush. Against a pretty good Atlanta passing offense, that could be a huge issue. But Seattle just seems to have that feel this year. They can play you on your terms: make them play high octane, they score 50+; make them go the other way, and they grind out the win. Sans the Clemons injury, this is easy. Even after his knee went out, I still feel pretty good about this.
The pick: Seattle 34 Atlanta 24
New England (-10) over Houston
The rationale: Houston has not looked good since they played my Bears in a knock down, drag out brawl. New England, on the other hand, looks great. They seem to be getting healthy at just the right time, and I agree with Bill Simmons: the brain trust in New England has to know that they may not get another shot at the title. They had to have felt that way last year, and after blowing the Super Bowl to be here again, they have to be hyper focused. Besides, simply put, if Denver wins doesn't it feel like Brady v Manning HAS to happen this year? And don't you want it to? I do. Let's run it back one more time boys.
The pick: New England 35 Houston 17
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Saturday, January 5, 2013
2013 NFL Playoff Picks - Wildcard Round
Well, with a month off, I'm back for the playoff picks. The drive for 11-0 is on again. Hopefully I make it past the first game. Again, I will pick against the spread, but indicate also who I think will win and by what score.
Houston (-4) over Cincinnati
The rationale: I know that Houston hit the last quarter of the year with some pretty significant struggles. I know that Cincinnati's defense was incredibly tough down the stretch. But here's the deal: the Texans might actually benefit from losing the bye week, as it will give them no time to think about the end of year struggles. After blowing the game to Indy last week they went right into game planning for Cincinnati. I have to believe that somewhere in there is the team that started 11-1, and showed the ability to score with the best and defend with the best. That, plus the fact that the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, make me lean towards Houston covering the spread.
The Pick: Houston 24 Cincinnati 17
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay
The rationale: Green Bay could be in trouble this game under the philosophy that they let a team in the playoffs they had a chance to eliminate last week. In two games against the Pack this year Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards. If he has that kind of production Saturday night the Pack may be in trouble. I can't overstate how much I'll be rooting for the the ViQueens in this game, and I think they'll give a good game. That said, in football you have to give the advantage to the team with the elite quarterback. And, in this game, the elite QB is not Mr. Samantha Steele.
The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 23
Baltimore (-7) over Indianapolis
The rationale: the Colts periphery numbers spell this out. The Colts scored 30 fewer points than their opponents this year, yet won 11 of 16 games. The Colts went 9-1 in games decided by less than a TD, a stat which always regresses back to the mean. The Colts are young, inexperienced, and the "feel good story." The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years. Perhaps Indy keeps it close, but it would be a major upset if the Ravens did not advance.
The Pick: Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 17
Seattle (-3) over Washington
The rationale: in a year like this, it seems like Seattle has something going for it at the right time. Russell Wilson is the lesser known of three rookie QBs in the playoffs, but if things go the way I think they will he will be the last one standing after Sunday.
The Pick: Seattle 27 Washington 20
Houston (-4) over Cincinnati
The rationale: I know that Houston hit the last quarter of the year with some pretty significant struggles. I know that Cincinnati's defense was incredibly tough down the stretch. But here's the deal: the Texans might actually benefit from losing the bye week, as it will give them no time to think about the end of year struggles. After blowing the game to Indy last week they went right into game planning for Cincinnati. I have to believe that somewhere in there is the team that started 11-1, and showed the ability to score with the best and defend with the best. That, plus the fact that the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, make me lean towards Houston covering the spread.
The Pick: Houston 24 Cincinnati 17
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay
The rationale: Green Bay could be in trouble this game under the philosophy that they let a team in the playoffs they had a chance to eliminate last week. In two games against the Pack this year Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards. If he has that kind of production Saturday night the Pack may be in trouble. I can't overstate how much I'll be rooting for the the ViQueens in this game, and I think they'll give a good game. That said, in football you have to give the advantage to the team with the elite quarterback. And, in this game, the elite QB is not Mr. Samantha Steele.
The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 23
Baltimore (-7) over Indianapolis
The rationale: the Colts periphery numbers spell this out. The Colts scored 30 fewer points than their opponents this year, yet won 11 of 16 games. The Colts went 9-1 in games decided by less than a TD, a stat which always regresses back to the mean. The Colts are young, inexperienced, and the "feel good story." The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years. Perhaps Indy keeps it close, but it would be a major upset if the Ravens did not advance.
The Pick: Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 17
Seattle (-3) over Washington
The rationale: in a year like this, it seems like Seattle has something going for it at the right time. Russell Wilson is the lesser known of three rookie QBs in the playoffs, but if things go the way I think they will he will be the last one standing after Sunday.
The Pick: Seattle 27 Washington 20
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