Well, with a month off, I'm back for the playoff picks. The drive for 11-0 is on again. Hopefully I make it past the first game. Again, I will pick against the spread, but indicate also who I think will win and by what score.
Houston (-4) over Cincinnati
The rationale: I know that Houston hit the last quarter of the year with some pretty significant struggles. I know that Cincinnati's defense was incredibly tough down the stretch. But here's the deal: the Texans might actually benefit from losing the bye week, as it will give them no time to think about the end of year struggles. After blowing the game to Indy last week they went right into game planning for Cincinnati. I have to believe that somewhere in there is the team that started 11-1, and showed the ability to score with the best and defend with the best. That, plus the fact that the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, make me lean towards Houston covering the spread.
The Pick: Houston 24 Cincinnati 17
Minnesota (+8) over Green Bay
The rationale: Green Bay could be in trouble this game under the philosophy that they let a team in the playoffs they had a chance to eliminate last week. In two games against the Pack this year Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ran for over 400 yards. If he has that kind of production Saturday night the Pack may be in trouble. I can't overstate how much I'll be rooting for the the ViQueens in this game, and I think they'll give a good game. That said, in football you have to give the advantage to the team with the elite quarterback. And, in this game, the elite QB is not Mr. Samantha Steele.
The Pick: Green Bay 28 Minnesota 23
Baltimore (-7) over Indianapolis
The rationale: the Colts periphery numbers spell this out. The Colts scored 30 fewer points than their opponents this year, yet won 11 of 16 games. The Colts went 9-1 in games decided by less than a TD, a stat which always regresses back to the mean. The Colts are young, inexperienced, and the "feel good story." The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years. Perhaps Indy keeps it close, but it would be a major upset if the Ravens did not advance.
The Pick: Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 17
Seattle (-3) over Washington
The rationale: in a year like this, it seems like Seattle has something going for it at the right time. Russell Wilson is the lesser known of three rookie QBs in the playoffs, but if things go the way I think they will he will be the last one standing after Sunday.
The Pick: Seattle 27 Washington 20
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