Well, let's start with the end first:
Last week against the spread: 6-9-1
Last week straight up: 8-8
Season against the spread: 24-21-3
Season straight up: 31-17
So ... yeah, last week was awful. Week two wasn't much better, but last week was one of the worst weeks I've had picking games. To give a comparison, last year this was my total record at the time that my school schedule became so busy that I stopped blogging my picks entirely: 99-73-4 against the spread, 122-53-1 straight up. Needless to say, I've got some work to do before I can get back to a record like that.
My strategy is typically to stick with my preseason picks through the first 3-4 weeks when making picks. The biggest mistake people tend to make in picking games is to over adjust to one week's information. That said, a week like last week (and, honestly, it being coupled with my week 2 performance) makes me wonder if I was just terribly off in my preseason picks. So, before the picks this week, let's take a look, division by division, to try to glean some information from the first three weeks of the season.
AFC East
My preseason pick: New England win the division, the rest are awful
Right now: New England and Miami are tied at 3-0, the NY Jets are 2-1, and even Buffalo has a win
What we've learned: Brady is missing his receivers more than even I had anticipated, and Gronkowski is still out (thank goodness I also drafted Antonio Gates). Miami is the million dollar question here: are they good, or have they been lucky? Well, they beat a Cleveland team in week one that may not be good, but is also not a team that will roll over like we might have thought. They followed that up by beating an Indy team we thought would be pretty bad, but that team just drubbed the 49ers (who I thought was going to win it all). So perhaps Indy is good, making that Miami win over Indy look better? And the, the biggest of the big wins, was the victory over Atlanta. We'll learn much more about them in the next two weeks (New Orleans and Baltimore) but their offensive and defensive stats are middle of the pack. The Jets? They are only +5 in scoring differential and barely beat the Bills and the awful Tampa Bay Bucs for their two wins. I'm not as worried about them.
AFC North
My preseason pick: Cincinnati to win the division, Baltimore to win 10 games, Pittsburgh to fall below .500 and Cleveland to be Cleveland
Right now: Cincinnati and Baltimore are both 2-1, Cleveland is being Cleveland, and Pittsburgh is even worse than I thought
What we've learned: I feel pretty comfortable with this division picks so far. Cleveland will be a tough out, and accordingly it's possible that Pittsburgh slips to last place in the division this year, but Cincinnati and Baltimore are both flawed teams, but clearly better than the rest.
AFC South
My preseason pick: Houston to run away with the division, Indy and Tennessee to be .500, Jacksonville to be terrible
Right now: Houston isn't running away with anything, but is 2-1, Indy and Tennessee are also 2-1, and Jacksonville is terrible
What we've learned: Houston's offense is not that potent, at least not right now. Indy is an enigma: they should be taking some major steps back from last year, and through two games it looked like they had. Two home games against the bad Dolphins (a loss) and the much worse Raiders (a narrow win) made the Colts at .500 seem to be a spot on pick. But, as mentioned above, the Colts killing San Francisco, coupled with Miami moving on to beat Atlanta, leaves open some major questions. Simply put: we don't know what we have with the Colts right now. .500 seems to be the bottom end of their potential now rather than the most likely outcome. The top end? It could be the playoffs... if Miami is as good as they have been so far, and if San Francisco is as good as we thought they would be. Tennessee, on the other hand, is pretty much right where I thought they'd be with wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a loss to Houston. Somewhat disconcerting: Houston is currently -12 in point differential, while the Titans are +4 and Indy is +20. I think that will shake out a bit in upcoming weeks, but Indy has at least given me pause. The Texans and Colts don't play until week 9, so we may not get any real info about the outcome of this division until then.
AFC West
My preseason pick: Denver to run away with the division, the Chiefs to make the playoffs with double digit wins, San Diego to be slightly below average, and Oakland to be terrible
Right now: Denver looks like a juggernaut, the Chiefs look like they'll make the playoffs, San Diego looks slightly below average, and the Raiders are on pace to be terrible, but not Jacksonville level terrible
What we've learned: This division is pretty much where I thought they'd be. So, for the AFC, I'm 2 for 4 with division picks. Although this is a good time to note that the AFC, which I had pegged to be the much weaker conference, has dominated the NFC so far this year.
NFC East
My preseason pick: I had the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Redskins in that order, saying that was the toughest division for me to pick. I rationalized that this was because all four teams were good.
Right now: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, NY Giants ...
What we've learned: Well, all are in the running for the division ... only it's because everyone is pretty awful in the division. I was right about the Redskins falling off (they are 0-3) but I was pretty wrong about the Giants (I had them at 10-6, but they are also 0-3). Also, I expected Chip Kelly's impact to last longer than the first half against Washington, but that seems to have been the extent of it.
NFC North
My preseason pick: Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota
Right now: Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota
What we've learned: starting at the bottom, I look to have been pretty right about Minnesota's smoke and mirrors act going up in smoke this year. My pick of 5-11 for them might have been a tad generous even. Green Bay has lost twice, but to two teams I had pegged for the playoffs (San Francisco and Cincinnati). Detroit is 2-1, but with wins over Washington and Minnesota. If the Bears beat Detroit this week I'll feel all in all pretty good about my picks here. Even if they don't, I think I'll be ok.
NFC South
My preseason pick: New Orleans and Atlanta at 11-5, Carolina and Tampa at 7-9
Right now: New Orleans is 3-0, Atlanta and Carolina are 1-2, and Tampa is looking awful at 0-3
What we've learned: Again, starting at the bottom, we've learned that Greg Schiano will probably not make it another year in the NFL. Carolina beating the Giants last week saved Ron Rivera his job. Atlanta starting 1-2 makes me feel pretty good about my pick of New Orleans winning the division. All in all, I think what we've learned is that the gap between the top and bottom of this division is as wide as ever.
NFC West
My preseason pick: San Fran with the best record in the league, Seattle making the playoffs, Arizona at .500 and St. Louis in last
Right now: Seattle looks like the juggernaut, San Fran is .500 (through four weeks ... Thursday night football sucks), Arizona, then St. Louis (again, Thursday night football sucks)
What we've learned: We don't know what San Fran is. Seattle looks tough. The other teams may not be that good.
So, with that review, on to the picks for week 4:
Thursday Night
San Francisco (-3.5) over St. Louis - this one was easy to pick for me: if the 49ers blew this their year might be done. It still might be, but this was a gimme
Sunday early games
Chicago (+2) over Detroit - Please note: I had a chance to go to this game and passed. I think that's good for me and for all 5 Lions fans.
Baltimore (-3) over Buffalo - hate taking road favorites, but Baltimore's D looks like it's back to good, and Buffalo doesn't seem to be able stick to what it said it wanted to do: run the ball.
Cincinnati (-4) over Cleveland - last week was Cleveland's "we aren't dead yet" statement. This week they run into a team that needs this win if they want to top Baltimore for the division. Again, a road favorite.
Kansas City (-4) over NY Giants - I hate this pick and I have no confidence in it. But after the show the Giants put up last week against Carolina how in the world can you pick them?
Pittsburgh (-3) over Minnesota - listen, Pittsburgh is bad, but Minnesota is worse. I think the Steelers D, even as broken as it may be, can key in on stopping Peterson, and then can take advantage of Mr. Sam Steele.
Arizona (+1) over Tampa Bay - I think that Schiano benching Freeman was simply to save his job ahead of next week's bye week. It's not because Glennon is a better QB. I think Arizona can come east and win the game.
Indianapolis (-10) over Jacksonville - This is not the week we'll find out what Indy is made of; if they can roll up San Fran like they did last week this should be a breeze.
Houston (+3) over Seattle - I'll jump off the Texans bandwagon if they get throttled here, but I think it's too good of a deal to take the Texans plus points at home.
Sunday afternoon late games
Tennessee (-3) over NY Jets - I like what's going on in Tennessee; not so much what's going on in the Meadowlands ... either conference of the Meadowlands.
Denver (-12) over Philadelphia - I just have to say: Oakland backdoor covering last week against Oakland after they let off the gas pedal makes me a little nervous taking them here. But only a little.
Oakland (+4) over Washington - I don't think that Washington should be favored on the road period. That defense is awful, and RGIII still doesn't look right.
Dallas (-1) over San Diego - Someone has to win the NFC East right? Right? I don't like this pick either, but I like Dallas slightly better than San Diego right now, and on an essential pick 'em line, go with your gut.
Sunday night game
Atlanta (-2) over New England - New England's D is much better than people are talking about, but Atlanta's D won't have to worry about the banged up Pats offense. This is a borderline must win game for Atlanta if they want to stay in the division hunt, so I think they can pull it off.
Monday night game
New Orleans (-7) over Miami - here is where we find out if Miami is for real or not. I'm still going to bet "not" one more week
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Friday, September 20, 2013
2013 NFL Week 3 Picks
Quick hits:
Thursday Night
Kansas City (+3.5) over Philadelphia
Sunday Early
Green Bay (-3) over Cincinnati
St. Louis (+4) over Dallas
San Diego (+3) over Tennessee
Minnesota (-8) over Cleveland
Tampa Bay (+9) over New England / Patriots straight up
New Orleans (-8) over Arizona
Detroit (+1) over Washington
New York Giants (-2) over Carolina
Houston (-3) over Baltimore
Sunday Late
Atlanta (+1) over Miami
New York Jets (-1) over Buffalo
San Francisco (-11) over Indianapolis
Seattle (-19) over Jacksonville
Sunday Night
Chicago (-1) over Pittsburgh
Monday Night
Denver (-17) over Oakland
Last week against the spread: 8-7-1
Last week straight up: 10-6
Season against the spread: 18-12-2
Season straight up: 23-9
Thursday Night
Kansas City (+3.5) over Philadelphia
Sunday Early
Green Bay (-3) over Cincinnati
St. Louis (+4) over Dallas
San Diego (+3) over Tennessee
Minnesota (-8) over Cleveland
Tampa Bay (+9) over New England / Patriots straight up
New Orleans (-8) over Arizona
Detroit (+1) over Washington
New York Giants (-2) over Carolina
Houston (-3) over Baltimore
Sunday Late
Atlanta (+1) over Miami
New York Jets (-1) over Buffalo
San Francisco (-11) over Indianapolis
Seattle (-19) over Jacksonville
Sunday Night
Chicago (-1) over Pittsburgh
Monday Night
Denver (-17) over Oakland
Last week against the spread: 8-7-1
Last week straight up: 10-6
Season against the spread: 18-12-2
Season straight up: 23-9
Saturday, September 14, 2013
NFL 2013 Week Two Picks
Today: IU against Bowling Green (we only have so many chances to get back above .500 before we plummet below it for the entirety of the year), Alabama against Texas A&M (my thoughts: if the NCAA only suspended "Johnny Football" for half a game, there is no way they could justify taking Alabama's national title last year for D.J. Fluker getting paid), and then we find out if Notre Dame is half way decent (in which case they will beat Purdue by at least 31) or if they are on their way towards getting Brian Kelly fired (anything less than 31).
Tomorrow: Da Bears, general NFL fun, and then the next to next to last episode of Breaking Bad.
Sounds like a good weekend. On to the picks.
Sunday Early Games:
Atlanta (-7) over St. Louis
The reasoning: this line seems way too high given what we saw in week one. I confirmed by looking at a few online gambling websites, and it seems this line has settled in the -5.5 range rather than -7. Still, I'm sticking to my guns for consistency sake, and that means pulling the lines off ESPN. I'd be ecstatic to get Atlanta -5.5, but I think they are still the smart pick here.They will want to get back on the bike and prove that they are a team to beat in the NFC after losing to their old nemesis in New Orleans last week. St. Louis is tougher than I may have given them credit for, but I'm skeptical that Jarred Cook can continue to be focused enough to produce like he did last week. Without his help, Bradford turn much more mortal. Finally, the St. Louis run game looks like they could still use Steven Jackson, only he's in Atlanta now.
Panthers (-3) over Buffalo
The reasoning:I actually think that the Panther's offense, as neutered as it looked last week against Seattle, is better right now than the Patriots offense. By year's end, if New England gets Amendola, Vereen and Gronkowski back and healthy that shouldn't be the case. But what I heard (on the radio) Thursday night makes me think the Pats are in for a low scoring year period. Buffalo will struggle to run against the Carolina front seven, leaving it all on E.J. Manual. Meanwhile, the Panthers should be able to run well on the Buffalo front seven, and should be able to pass well.
Chicago (-6) over the ViQueens of Minnesota
The reasoning: Christian Ponder on the road is not a good thing. That should enable the Bears to put 8 in the box most of the game to stop Adrian Peterson, which is what Detroit did with success last week. The Bears should also be able to score on a Minnesota defense that suddenly looks its age. I'm just hoping that someone wakes Julius Peppers up before I have to start making "Julius Pepper's corpse" jokes.
Green Bay (-8) over Washington
The reasoning: this line is also high, and I'd be much happier taking it if it was anything under 7. That said, I think Green Bay will cover for much the same reasons I think Atlanta will cover, and I'm not positive that Washington is any better than St. Louis. As I said in my pre-season preview, I just feel like they are a major candidate for regression.
Indianapolis (-1) over Miami
The reasoning: I don't like either of these teams this week, but gun to head I'll pick the Colts to win this week. Miami has no visible running game, and even if Miami is up six with a minute left, Luck seems to have a way of pulling these things out.
Dallas (+3) over Kansas City
The reasoning: it's early in the year, and the Cowboys like to get their fan's hopes up. Also, KC is riding high after last week, but A) that was against the freaking Jaguars, who probably need to be relegated to division 3 football, and B) Alex Smith didn't look like he believed he could throw more than 5 yards down field. Dallas will win, and then KC will be properly rated.
San Diego (+8) over Philadelphia / Philadelphia straight up
The reasoning: you know that the lines are good when there are so many games I don't like. 8 just feels like a really high line for an Eagles team that may or may not have a defense. That's the troubling thing about last week: did they run out of gas or did they let off the gas pedal? I'm not 100% sure, and I tossed and turned over this pick. Ultimately, I trust Atlanta and Green Bay to cover their "too high lines" more than I do Philadelphia right now.
Baltimore (+7) over Cleveland
The reasoning: this simply feels like a bounce back game for Baltimore. And yes I'm excited to be starting their defense against Brandon Weeden. Don't let me down boys!
Tennessee (+11) over Houston / Houston straight up
The reasoning: this would be the third "this line is too large" hedge of the week, along with New England on Thursday (see, didn't that game suck? But I was right) and Philly above. I think Tennessee may be this year's good bad team, and I think they are tough enough to hang in, but not win.
Sunday Late Games:
Arizona (+1) over Detroit
The reasoning: Arizona is much better than Minnesota, and I think they will neutralize Reggie Bush much better. I think they can throw on Detroit as well, and this game is on the west coast.
New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay
The reasoning: I feel good about my New Orleans pick this pre-season already, and I feel pretty good about my Tampa Bay pick as well. If I'm right about both, New Orleans should win by a TD easy.
Jacksonville(+6) over Oakland
The reasoning: Well ... Blaine Gabbert is out with an injury, and Terrell Pryor can't be as good as he looked last week. I think that this will just be a game there is no chance of me watching, or me even caring about, as I have no Jag or Raider on either of my fantasy teams.
Denver (-4) over New York Giants
The Reasoning: I hate to take the team coming west to play east minus the points, but it's a late enough game that it should be ok. I think this will be a high scoring game, but I am a believer in what I saw last week from Denver. They are good to go with their 3 receiver, 1 TE, someone blocking at RB sets. Peyton will find someone open.
Sunday Night Game:
San Fransisco (+1) over Seattle
The reasoning: I seem to be in the minority that believes the 49ers are the better team. Last week saw Seattle getting shut down by Carolina, while San Fran had their way with the Packers. I just think that the niners are the superior team.
Monday Night Game:
Pittsburgh (+8) over Cincinnati / Cincinnati straight up
The reasoning: I hate hedging yet another time, but Pittsburgh's defense can still play, and that alone should keep this game to a TD or less. What's more, what I saw last week was that Cincinnati is undisciplined, and undisciplined teams keep games closer than they should.
This week against the spread: 1-0
This week straight up: 1-0
Season against the spread:11-5-1
Season straight up: 14-3
Tomorrow: Da Bears, general NFL fun, and then the next to next to last episode of Breaking Bad.
Sounds like a good weekend. On to the picks.
Sunday Early Games:
Atlanta (-7) over St. Louis
The reasoning: this line seems way too high given what we saw in week one. I confirmed by looking at a few online gambling websites, and it seems this line has settled in the -5.5 range rather than -7. Still, I'm sticking to my guns for consistency sake, and that means pulling the lines off ESPN. I'd be ecstatic to get Atlanta -5.5, but I think they are still the smart pick here.They will want to get back on the bike and prove that they are a team to beat in the NFC after losing to their old nemesis in New Orleans last week. St. Louis is tougher than I may have given them credit for, but I'm skeptical that Jarred Cook can continue to be focused enough to produce like he did last week. Without his help, Bradford turn much more mortal. Finally, the St. Louis run game looks like they could still use Steven Jackson, only he's in Atlanta now.
Panthers (-3) over Buffalo
The reasoning:I actually think that the Panther's offense, as neutered as it looked last week against Seattle, is better right now than the Patriots offense. By year's end, if New England gets Amendola, Vereen and Gronkowski back and healthy that shouldn't be the case. But what I heard (on the radio) Thursday night makes me think the Pats are in for a low scoring year period. Buffalo will struggle to run against the Carolina front seven, leaving it all on E.J. Manual. Meanwhile, the Panthers should be able to run well on the Buffalo front seven, and should be able to pass well.
Chicago (-6) over the ViQueens of Minnesota
The reasoning: Christian Ponder on the road is not a good thing. That should enable the Bears to put 8 in the box most of the game to stop Adrian Peterson, which is what Detroit did with success last week. The Bears should also be able to score on a Minnesota defense that suddenly looks its age. I'm just hoping that someone wakes Julius Peppers up before I have to start making "Julius Pepper's corpse" jokes.
Green Bay (-8) over Washington
The reasoning: this line is also high, and I'd be much happier taking it if it was anything under 7. That said, I think Green Bay will cover for much the same reasons I think Atlanta will cover, and I'm not positive that Washington is any better than St. Louis. As I said in my pre-season preview, I just feel like they are a major candidate for regression.
Indianapolis (-1) over Miami
The reasoning: I don't like either of these teams this week, but gun to head I'll pick the Colts to win this week. Miami has no visible running game, and even if Miami is up six with a minute left, Luck seems to have a way of pulling these things out.
Dallas (+3) over Kansas City
The reasoning: it's early in the year, and the Cowboys like to get their fan's hopes up. Also, KC is riding high after last week, but A) that was against the freaking Jaguars, who probably need to be relegated to division 3 football, and B) Alex Smith didn't look like he believed he could throw more than 5 yards down field. Dallas will win, and then KC will be properly rated.
San Diego (+8) over Philadelphia / Philadelphia straight up
The reasoning: you know that the lines are good when there are so many games I don't like. 8 just feels like a really high line for an Eagles team that may or may not have a defense. That's the troubling thing about last week: did they run out of gas or did they let off the gas pedal? I'm not 100% sure, and I tossed and turned over this pick. Ultimately, I trust Atlanta and Green Bay to cover their "too high lines" more than I do Philadelphia right now.
Baltimore (+7) over Cleveland
The reasoning: this simply feels like a bounce back game for Baltimore. And yes I'm excited to be starting their defense against Brandon Weeden. Don't let me down boys!
Tennessee (+11) over Houston / Houston straight up
The reasoning: this would be the third "this line is too large" hedge of the week, along with New England on Thursday (see, didn't that game suck? But I was right) and Philly above. I think Tennessee may be this year's good bad team, and I think they are tough enough to hang in, but not win.
Sunday Late Games:
Arizona (+1) over Detroit
The reasoning: Arizona is much better than Minnesota, and I think they will neutralize Reggie Bush much better. I think they can throw on Detroit as well, and this game is on the west coast.
New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay
The reasoning: I feel good about my New Orleans pick this pre-season already, and I feel pretty good about my Tampa Bay pick as well. If I'm right about both, New Orleans should win by a TD easy.
Jacksonville(+6) over Oakland
The reasoning: Well ... Blaine Gabbert is out with an injury, and Terrell Pryor can't be as good as he looked last week. I think that this will just be a game there is no chance of me watching, or me even caring about, as I have no Jag or Raider on either of my fantasy teams.
Denver (-4) over New York Giants
The Reasoning: I hate to take the team coming west to play east minus the points, but it's a late enough game that it should be ok. I think this will be a high scoring game, but I am a believer in what I saw last week from Denver. They are good to go with their 3 receiver, 1 TE, someone blocking at RB sets. Peyton will find someone open.
Sunday Night Game:
San Fransisco (+1) over Seattle
The reasoning: I seem to be in the minority that believes the 49ers are the better team. Last week saw Seattle getting shut down by Carolina, while San Fran had their way with the Packers. I just think that the niners are the superior team.
Monday Night Game:
Pittsburgh (+8) over Cincinnati / Cincinnati straight up
The reasoning: I hate hedging yet another time, but Pittsburgh's defense can still play, and that alone should keep this game to a TD or less. What's more, what I saw last week was that Cincinnati is undisciplined, and undisciplined teams keep games closer than they should.
This week against the spread: 1-0
This week straight up: 1-0
Season against the spread:11-5-1
Season straight up: 14-3
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
NFL QB Rankings ... Plus The POV Thursday Night Pick
A reminder: Thursday night games suck. That was my refrain last year, and it's my refrain this year. They aren't good for the players: they get three off days, rather than the typical six, to heal and recover. They aren't good for the fans: most of us have real world jobs that entail us getting up at a normal time on Friday, making a late game Thursday night an inconvenience if our favorite team is playing. What's more, if you're a huge NFL fan (guilty) then you are already sacrificing Monday morning (due to Sunday night football) AND Tuesday morning (due to Monday night football) to the NFL. The difference is that on Monday and Tuesday you are still a little rested from the weekend. By Friday morning you are generally spent. And, further more, Thursday night football makes you make decisions on picks and your fantasy football lineup much earlier. The only group this benefits are the rich owners, and their boss, Beelzebub ... er, Roger Goodell.
So I'm writing to give the POV "Thursday Night Football Sucks" pick. But before that, Boomer Esiason versus Jay Cutler.
Esiason, who has been an outspoken critic of Cutler's before, said on the Sunday pre-game show that he and his expert friends would take 20 quarterbacks in the NFL ahead of Cutler. Simply put, I wanted to see if I agreed with Esiason (who is far from my favorite talking head ... if Cowher wasn't on the CBS pre-game there would be no reason to even think of changing over to their program). Before this exercise my gut was telling me that Boomer was way off base, and that Cutler would easily be inside the top 20. Is he? Consider:
Group One: Guys You'd Absolutely Have Over Jay Cutler, But Who Will Retire Before Him
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Bree
3. Peyton Manning
4. Tom Brady
Group Two: Guys You'd Absolutely Have, And Will Play Longer Than Him
5. Cam Newton
6. Colin Kaepernick
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Russell Wilson
9. Andrew Luck
10. Matt Ryan
Group Three: Guys You'd Probably Take Over Cutler Without Much Thought
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Tony Romo
Group Four: Getting Into Toss Up Territory
14. Matt Stafford
15. Michael Vick
16. Matt Schaub
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Andy Dalton
Group Five: Guys You'd Say No To Today Over Cutler
19. Sam Bradford
20. Terrelle Pryor
21. Carson Palmer
22. Josh Freeman
23. Phil Rivers
24. Alex Smith
25. Ryan Tannehill
26. E.J. Manuel
27. Blaine Gabbert
28. Jake Locker
29. Christian Ponder
30. Geno Smith
31. Brandon Weeden
...
2,100. Rex Grossman
So, with those in no particular order, Cutler by my count is no lower than 19, but probably 14. I may try to rank them in my personal order some time, or maybe not. But I disagree with Boomer. And I hope he liked the Bears beating his Bengals Sunday.
On to the pick
Season against the spread: 10-5-1
Season straight up: 13-3
Thursday Night Football
Jets (+12) over Patriots / Patriots straight up
The reasoning: too many injuries early in the year for the Pats, and the Jets D is sneaky good. I expect that the Pats can overcome this for a win, but I don't think it will be by 2 TDs or 1 TD and 2 FG.
Remember everyone: Thursday night football sucks!
So I'm writing to give the POV "Thursday Night Football Sucks" pick. But before that, Boomer Esiason versus Jay Cutler.
Esiason, who has been an outspoken critic of Cutler's before, said on the Sunday pre-game show that he and his expert friends would take 20 quarterbacks in the NFL ahead of Cutler. Simply put, I wanted to see if I agreed with Esiason (who is far from my favorite talking head ... if Cowher wasn't on the CBS pre-game there would be no reason to even think of changing over to their program). Before this exercise my gut was telling me that Boomer was way off base, and that Cutler would easily be inside the top 20. Is he? Consider:
Group One: Guys You'd Absolutely Have Over Jay Cutler, But Who Will Retire Before Him
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Bree
3. Peyton Manning
4. Tom Brady
Group Two: Guys You'd Absolutely Have, And Will Play Longer Than Him
5. Cam Newton
6. Colin Kaepernick
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Russell Wilson
9. Andrew Luck
10. Matt Ryan
Group Three: Guys You'd Probably Take Over Cutler Without Much Thought
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Tony Romo
Group Four: Getting Into Toss Up Territory
14. Matt Stafford
15. Michael Vick
16. Matt Schaub
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Andy Dalton
Group Five: Guys You'd Say No To Today Over Cutler
19. Sam Bradford
20. Terrelle Pryor
21. Carson Palmer
22. Josh Freeman
23. Phil Rivers
24. Alex Smith
25. Ryan Tannehill
26. E.J. Manuel
27. Blaine Gabbert
28. Jake Locker
29. Christian Ponder
30. Geno Smith
31. Brandon Weeden
...
2,100. Rex Grossman
So, with those in no particular order, Cutler by my count is no lower than 19, but probably 14. I may try to rank them in my personal order some time, or maybe not. But I disagree with Boomer. And I hope he liked the Bears beating his Bengals Sunday.
On to the pick
Season against the spread: 10-5-1
Season straight up: 13-3
Thursday Night Football
Jets (+12) over Patriots / Patriots straight up
The reasoning: too many injuries early in the year for the Pats, and the Jets D is sneaky good. I expect that the Pats can overcome this for a win, but I don't think it will be by 2 TDs or 1 TD and 2 FG.
Remember everyone: Thursday night football sucks!
Sunday, September 8, 2013
The Creation of the Unwinnable Presidency
So here he finds himself, going to the American public this Tuesday night to make the case for taking military action in Syria. The Civil War in Syria, which this July went over 100,000 deaths, has been a non-existent topic in the national debate for much of the time it has been raging on. On August 21st, however, footage began to pour out showing civilians dying, apparently the victims of chemical weapons strikes. The US government quickly began to place the blame on the Syrian leadership, including Syrian President al-Assad. The Syrian government had been collecting chemical weapons for years, and had even (allegedly) used the weapons (admittedly, in much smaller doses) already during this conflict.
Today, in an interview with Charlie Rose, Assad not only denied that he was behind the chemical weapons strikes, but also indicated that the evidence that chemical weapons were used was not irrefutable. Assad's administration, hedging their bets, has also indicated that if the weapons were used it was the rebel forces which used them. Into this mess walks President Obama.
He tried and failed to build an international consensus that taking military action against the Assad regime would be prudent. In fact, he ended up with so little support that he is now going to Congress to get approval to take these measures, although he could very easily take action without Congressional approval should the administration deem it necessary for American security. Once it became obvious that the House of Representatives (at least) would be unlikely to back the military action, Obama was left no other option but to go to the well one more time and take his case to the American people.
We have allowed the creation of an unwinnable Presidency in this country. Setting aside, for the moment, the question of if a military strike in Syria is justifiable (let alone if it would be beneficial), let's look at this equation from a strictly political standpoint. There are a number of possible actions that the USA could take in Syria:
A no win situation through and through. I feel for anyone who takes on this job. I wonder if he ever looks at it and says "only three years left..."? I can't help but imagine he does.
Today, in an interview with Charlie Rose, Assad not only denied that he was behind the chemical weapons strikes, but also indicated that the evidence that chemical weapons were used was not irrefutable. Assad's administration, hedging their bets, has also indicated that if the weapons were used it was the rebel forces which used them. Into this mess walks President Obama.
He tried and failed to build an international consensus that taking military action against the Assad regime would be prudent. In fact, he ended up with so little support that he is now going to Congress to get approval to take these measures, although he could very easily take action without Congressional approval should the administration deem it necessary for American security. Once it became obvious that the House of Representatives (at least) would be unlikely to back the military action, Obama was left no other option but to go to the well one more time and take his case to the American people.
We have allowed the creation of an unwinnable Presidency in this country. Setting aside, for the moment, the question of if a military strike in Syria is justifiable (let alone if it would be beneficial), let's look at this equation from a strictly political standpoint. There are a number of possible actions that the USA could take in Syria:
- Do nothing, stay out of the conflict entirely
- Make small, "behind the scenes" moves designed to influence the outcome of the conflict (ie arm the rebels, send supplies, etc), but make no overt actions
- Denounce the violence on the international stage and take action to damage Syria economically (sanctions, embargo, etc) or militarily (more directly arming the rebels or influencing those supplying Syria with arms not to do so)
- Take limited military action, such as enforcing a no-fly zone (ideally risking no lives on either side from US action)
- Take more involved military action such as cruise missile strikes (risking lives on the Syrian side, including the risk of innocent civilian deaths)
- Take additional military action such as air strikes (risking lives on both sides)
- Engage in a limited "boots on the ground" campaign (perhaps to train the rebels or to secure chemical weapons supplies)
- Engage in a broad "boots on the ground" campaign (highest risk of loss of life on the US side)
A no win situation through and through. I feel for anyone who takes on this job. I wonder if he ever looks at it and says "only three years left..."? I can't help but imagine he does.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
NFL 2013 - Week One Picks
Weekly I'll be posting my picks; a reminder that I pull the projected spread from ESPN.com. As I just posted my season preview, there won't be any commentary here, just the picks. Other weeks may be longer with some thoughts on the various teams and match-ups.
Thursday Night game
Baltimore (+9) over Denver / Denver straight up
Sunday early games:
New England (-10.5) over Buffalo/Jeff Tuel
Chicago (-3) over Cincinnati (okay, one thought: can't pick against the Bears week 1)
Miami (+1) over Cleveland
Detroit (-5) over Minnesota
Oakland (+10.5) over Indianapolis / Indy straight up
New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta
Tampa Bay (-3.5) over NY Jets
Tennessee (+7.5) over Pittsburgh
Seattle (-3.5) over Carolina
Kansas City (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Sunday late games:
Arizona (+4.5) over St. Louis
San Francisco (-4.5) over Green Bay
Sunday night game:
NY Giants (+3) over Dallas
Monday night games:
Philadelphia (+3) over Washington
Houston (-4) over San Diego
Thursday Night game
Baltimore (+9) over Denver / Denver straight up
Sunday early games:
New England (-10.5) over Buffalo/Jeff Tuel
Chicago (-3) over Cincinnati (okay, one thought: can't pick against the Bears week 1)
Miami (+1) over Cleveland
Detroit (-5) over Minnesota
Oakland (+10.5) over Indianapolis / Indy straight up
New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta
Tampa Bay (-3.5) over NY Jets
Tennessee (+7.5) over Pittsburgh
Seattle (-3.5) over Carolina
Kansas City (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Sunday late games:
Arizona (+4.5) over St. Louis
San Francisco (-4.5) over Green Bay
Sunday night game:
NY Giants (+3) over Dallas
Monday night games:
Philadelphia (+3) over Washington
Houston (-4) over San Diego
The POV's Return ... NFL Pick Time - 2013 Edition
It's that magical time of year again. There are lots of things I want to blog about, but only one thing that consistently draws me out of pseudo-retirement to actually do it: the start of the NFL season.
Of course, in light of how hits are being penalized by the league office in pre-season games, perhaps it's time to acknowledge that the NFL has quietly changed it's name: it's now the National Flag-football League. Somewhere, Dick Butkus is crying.
Anyway, here are my predictions, division by division, for the NFL this year. Along the way I'll give some brief thoughts on my rationale for each pick. As a reminder, I didn't take the time to look up each schedule, pick winners, and such, so the suggested records are just my gut for what feels right ... they won't add up correctly. Starting with the AFC first:
AFC EAST
1. New England (10-6)
2. Miami (7-9)
3. NY Jets (6-10)
4. Buffalo (4-12)
Rationale: Well, I expect this division ... how can I put this lightly ... to suck. Big time. If the Pats were in almost any other Division I would firmly expect them to fail to win the division. But I also believe this division is that bad. Consider: Jeff Tuel is due to start for Buffalo at QB (he's an undrafted free agent), Dirty Sanchez is down and out, but Geno Smith hasn't looked any better for the Jets, and Miami has question marks all over the roster. Out of these three over matched teams, if one team had to catch the Pats I would lean towards the Dolphins, but I can't see it happening. Buffalo's record seems a bit low, but I also feel like one of these teams needs to struggle big time. If E.J. Manual can put it together for the Bills it very well may be the Jets, but as long as Jeff Tuel is garnering snaps in upstate New York, I've got to go with them.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati (11-5)
2. Baltimore (10-6)
3. Pittsburgh (7-9)
4. Cleveland (6-10)
Rationale: I'm not sure this division is much better than their AFC East counterparts. Just like in the AFC East there are "dynastic" teams fading to black (New England, meet Baltimore and Pittsburgh), as well as bad teams who will likely continue to be bad (Miami, New York and Buffalo meet Cleveland... although I like Cleveland a bit more than the other three in this grouping). The difference? I don't know where Cincinnati fits in with those paradigms. And that's why I have them pegged to ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... win the AFC North? Wait, that ended up as a question. I need to be more firm with my predictions. Here we go again: I'm picking Cincinnati to win the AFC North? Damn. Oh well, yes I'm making that pick. The real logic behind it is based in the inherent flaws of their three division mates. Baltimore, first off, played insanely over their heads in marching to a championship last year. Flacco played over his head, and earned a big new contract, then lost the main reason he was able to play that well in the playoffs (a suddenly resurgent Boldin, who will likely fade now, but played out of his mind as well). The Raven's D has some pieces to be sure, but it also lost the two biggest leaders on defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). They have Ray Rice, so they stand to make a run at a wild-card, but I don't expect them to be anything close to a juggernaut. As for Pittsburgh, my number two team is poised to take a "number two" on their fan base. There is no running game here, there is an aging and increasingly ineffective defense here, and their is still no offensive line here. Big Ben has two decent WR targets in Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, but he will struggle to get it to them without time, and he's breaking down due to the number of hits he's taken. I think last year was a sign of things to come, at least until they fix the o-line. The injuries to Heath Miller (last year) and Le'Veon Bell (this year) don't help either. Finally, Cleveland. There is some potential there, but Brandon Weeden still feels like a bust waiting to happen to me, and I'm not sure their D is ready to take a leap to the next level. Their upside is a carbon copy of last year's ViQueens team: awesome running game and solid D makes up for crappy QB play. I just don't believe in them being as good as Peterson and the Minny D was last year. And... finally... will all that unknown, we know what Andy Dalton is, we know what AJ Green is, we know what Green-Ellis is, and we know the Cincy D is pretty good. That looks like the rational pick to me.
AFC South
1. Houston (12-4)
2. Tennessee (8-8)
3. Indianapolis (8-8)
4. Jacksonville (2-14)
Rationale: The Colts are due for a major regression to the mean: they were outscored over 16 games last year, played insane in close games, and are now going from a last place schedule to a second place schedule. The Titans will go wherever Chris Johnson takes them, I just don't see him taking them anywhere past .500. The Jags should be awful this year. Houston makes almost too much sense, but I don't see any real competition for them in this division unless Andrew Luck makes a HUGE jump from "potential Peyton Manning" to "actual Peyton Manning." Which could happen ... but it's nowhere near the guarantee the five remaining Colts fans are convincing themselves it is.
AFC West
1. Denver (11-5)
2. Kansas City (10-6)
3. San Diego (7-9)
4. Oakland (3-13)
Rationale: I obviously expect it to be a bad year across the AFC, as I see a great deal of weakness here too. The Broncos will take a step back, but should still be good enough to win their division. The Chiefs should make a jump just based on getting a competent QB and a competent coach. The Charges seem to be sailing aimlessly, pretending that Phillip Rivers is still an elite QB (based on my observations and fantasy football rankings, he's not). And the Raiders are tanking for a top pick next year, which is why they are about to start the Pryor kid from Ohio State.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia (11-5)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (8-8)
4. Washington (7-9)
Rationale: this was the toughest division for me to pick thus far. I could actually talk myself into any of the four teams winning the division, so let's go in reverse order to see how I concluded that last year's worst team would be this year's best team in the NFC East. Washington seems to be a candidate for some regression, and RGIII coming back after an injury is no guarantee to be the RGIII that got things rolling last year. Dallas has all the pieces and talent win going away, but always seems to fall apart when it counts. The Giants are an easy stand by pick, and I nearly went with them, but they also seem to be weaker depth wise than they have been in awhile. That left the Eagles, who have the advantage of a last place schedule, a bunch of talent, and a new offensive scheme which might when them a few games based on the speed and new looks.
NFC North
1. Green Bay (12-4)
2. Chicago (10-6)
3. Detroit (8-8)
4. Minnesota (5-11)
Rationale: By talent alone the Lions should be in 2nd place, but their coach is a nut job who allows his players to be nut jobs, which fails to bring out any discipline in his team. That is why they fail. I expect a big regression from a Minnesota team that played way over their heads last year and is still starting Mr. Sam Steele at QB. The Bears are a mixed bag, but their new MLB looks good, and their O-line may be slowly improving after years of being vomit inducing. The Pack, as much as I hate them, is the class of the division, and should be again this year barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
1. New Orleans (11-5)
2. Atlanta (11-5)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (7-9)
Rationale: The Saints should have one bounce back year in them with Sean Payton at the helm before they need to reboot the program. The Falcon's D is getting up there, and their passing game will probably regress a bit. The Panthers running game is still a question, their only legitimate passing target (Steve Smith) is old, and I'm not sure Ron Rivera is a good enough coach to overcome everything. Tampa's o-line is already beat up, and that spells doom for their passing game and running game.
NFC West
1. San Francisco (13-3)
2. Seattle (11-5)
3. Arizona (8-8)
4. St. Louis (6-10)
Rationale: this was the toughest division last year, and may be again this year. The Cardinal's D was tough last year, and I believe that the new coach (Arians) will get points out of Carson Palmer and Co. The Rams have more questions than any other team in this division, which is why I expect a bit of regression. Both the top teams have major WR questions and young QBs primed for regression ... but they both have tough teams top to bottom, and I'm a believer in Harbaugh after two years of watching him return San Fran to their previous glory. The 49ers are once again the class of the league, and if Kaepernick is even 90% as good as he looked last year ... hell, 80% even ... they will be good for some time to come.
Playoffs - AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Baltimore
6. Kansas City
Rationale: I don't like having five teams return to the playoffs, but I'm thinking the rest of the AFC might very well be that bad. First round would be Cincinnati over Kansas City and Baltimore over New England. That would leave Houston hosting Baltimore, where their "repeat" run would come to an end, and Denver hosting Cincinnati, where I would expect the Broncos to win. Houston, barring major injuries, is your AFC champion in 2013.
Playoffs - NFC
1. San Francisco
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle
Rationale: This would leave two "projected" 10-6 teams (Chicago and the Giants) out of the playoffs, so obviously do think the NFC is a better league. That said, I'm a bit happier two have two newbies in this group. First round would be Seattle over New Orleans and Atlanta over Philadelphia. That would lead to a San Francisco versus Seattle second round, which I see San Francisco winning. Green Bay and Atlanta again would be fun, and I see Green Bay winning this year. Again, the top two seeds advance and I see the top seed moving on to the Super Bowl.
Pre-Season Super Bowl Prediction: San Francisco over Houston
Rationale: Any way you slice it, this is a "chalk" prediction, but I guess I'm thinking this will be a "chalk" year. I think that San Fran has a ton of talent, and that the AFC is weak enough for Houston's talent to finally outweigh their ability to shoot themselves in the foot. At least until the Super Bowl. Outdoors, in NYC (er, New Jersey) in winter? Yeah I'd take the 49ers and their ground game and D in that scenario.
Of course, in light of how hits are being penalized by the league office in pre-season games, perhaps it's time to acknowledge that the NFL has quietly changed it's name: it's now the National Flag-football League. Somewhere, Dick Butkus is crying.
Anyway, here are my predictions, division by division, for the NFL this year. Along the way I'll give some brief thoughts on my rationale for each pick. As a reminder, I didn't take the time to look up each schedule, pick winners, and such, so the suggested records are just my gut for what feels right ... they won't add up correctly. Starting with the AFC first:
AFC EAST
1. New England (10-6)
2. Miami (7-9)
3. NY Jets (6-10)
4. Buffalo (4-12)
Rationale: Well, I expect this division ... how can I put this lightly ... to suck. Big time. If the Pats were in almost any other Division I would firmly expect them to fail to win the division. But I also believe this division is that bad. Consider: Jeff Tuel is due to start for Buffalo at QB (he's an undrafted free agent), Dirty Sanchez is down and out, but Geno Smith hasn't looked any better for the Jets, and Miami has question marks all over the roster. Out of these three over matched teams, if one team had to catch the Pats I would lean towards the Dolphins, but I can't see it happening. Buffalo's record seems a bit low, but I also feel like one of these teams needs to struggle big time. If E.J. Manual can put it together for the Bills it very well may be the Jets, but as long as Jeff Tuel is garnering snaps in upstate New York, I've got to go with them.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati (11-5)
2. Baltimore (10-6)
3. Pittsburgh (7-9)
4. Cleveland (6-10)
Rationale: I'm not sure this division is much better than their AFC East counterparts. Just like in the AFC East there are "dynastic" teams fading to black (New England, meet Baltimore and Pittsburgh), as well as bad teams who will likely continue to be bad (Miami, New York and Buffalo meet Cleveland... although I like Cleveland a bit more than the other three in this grouping). The difference? I don't know where Cincinnati fits in with those paradigms. And that's why I have them pegged to ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... win the AFC North? Wait, that ended up as a question. I need to be more firm with my predictions. Here we go again: I'm picking Cincinnati to win the AFC North? Damn. Oh well, yes I'm making that pick. The real logic behind it is based in the inherent flaws of their three division mates. Baltimore, first off, played insanely over their heads in marching to a championship last year. Flacco played over his head, and earned a big new contract, then lost the main reason he was able to play that well in the playoffs (a suddenly resurgent Boldin, who will likely fade now, but played out of his mind as well). The Raven's D has some pieces to be sure, but it also lost the two biggest leaders on defense (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed). They have Ray Rice, so they stand to make a run at a wild-card, but I don't expect them to be anything close to a juggernaut. As for Pittsburgh, my number two team is poised to take a "number two" on their fan base. There is no running game here, there is an aging and increasingly ineffective defense here, and their is still no offensive line here. Big Ben has two decent WR targets in Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, but he will struggle to get it to them without time, and he's breaking down due to the number of hits he's taken. I think last year was a sign of things to come, at least until they fix the o-line. The injuries to Heath Miller (last year) and Le'Veon Bell (this year) don't help either. Finally, Cleveland. There is some potential there, but Brandon Weeden still feels like a bust waiting to happen to me, and I'm not sure their D is ready to take a leap to the next level. Their upside is a carbon copy of last year's ViQueens team: awesome running game and solid D makes up for crappy QB play. I just don't believe in them being as good as Peterson and the Minny D was last year. And... finally... will all that unknown, we know what Andy Dalton is, we know what AJ Green is, we know what Green-Ellis is, and we know the Cincy D is pretty good. That looks like the rational pick to me.
AFC South
1. Houston (12-4)
2. Tennessee (8-8)
3. Indianapolis (8-8)
4. Jacksonville (2-14)
Rationale: The Colts are due for a major regression to the mean: they were outscored over 16 games last year, played insane in close games, and are now going from a last place schedule to a second place schedule. The Titans will go wherever Chris Johnson takes them, I just don't see him taking them anywhere past .500. The Jags should be awful this year. Houston makes almost too much sense, but I don't see any real competition for them in this division unless Andrew Luck makes a HUGE jump from "potential Peyton Manning" to "actual Peyton Manning." Which could happen ... but it's nowhere near the guarantee the five remaining Colts fans are convincing themselves it is.
AFC West
1. Denver (11-5)
2. Kansas City (10-6)
3. San Diego (7-9)
4. Oakland (3-13)
Rationale: I obviously expect it to be a bad year across the AFC, as I see a great deal of weakness here too. The Broncos will take a step back, but should still be good enough to win their division. The Chiefs should make a jump just based on getting a competent QB and a competent coach. The Charges seem to be sailing aimlessly, pretending that Phillip Rivers is still an elite QB (based on my observations and fantasy football rankings, he's not). And the Raiders are tanking for a top pick next year, which is why they are about to start the Pryor kid from Ohio State.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia (11-5)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (8-8)
4. Washington (7-9)
Rationale: this was the toughest division for me to pick thus far. I could actually talk myself into any of the four teams winning the division, so let's go in reverse order to see how I concluded that last year's worst team would be this year's best team in the NFC East. Washington seems to be a candidate for some regression, and RGIII coming back after an injury is no guarantee to be the RGIII that got things rolling last year. Dallas has all the pieces and talent win going away, but always seems to fall apart when it counts. The Giants are an easy stand by pick, and I nearly went with them, but they also seem to be weaker depth wise than they have been in awhile. That left the Eagles, who have the advantage of a last place schedule, a bunch of talent, and a new offensive scheme which might when them a few games based on the speed and new looks.
NFC North
1. Green Bay (12-4)
2. Chicago (10-6)
3. Detroit (8-8)
4. Minnesota (5-11)
Rationale: By talent alone the Lions should be in 2nd place, but their coach is a nut job who allows his players to be nut jobs, which fails to bring out any discipline in his team. That is why they fail. I expect a big regression from a Minnesota team that played way over their heads last year and is still starting Mr. Sam Steele at QB. The Bears are a mixed bag, but their new MLB looks good, and their O-line may be slowly improving after years of being vomit inducing. The Pack, as much as I hate them, is the class of the division, and should be again this year barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers.
NFC South
1. New Orleans (11-5)
2. Atlanta (11-5)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (7-9)
Rationale: The Saints should have one bounce back year in them with Sean Payton at the helm before they need to reboot the program. The Falcon's D is getting up there, and their passing game will probably regress a bit. The Panthers running game is still a question, their only legitimate passing target (Steve Smith) is old, and I'm not sure Ron Rivera is a good enough coach to overcome everything. Tampa's o-line is already beat up, and that spells doom for their passing game and running game.
NFC West
1. San Francisco (13-3)
2. Seattle (11-5)
3. Arizona (8-8)
4. St. Louis (6-10)
Rationale: this was the toughest division last year, and may be again this year. The Cardinal's D was tough last year, and I believe that the new coach (Arians) will get points out of Carson Palmer and Co. The Rams have more questions than any other team in this division, which is why I expect a bit of regression. Both the top teams have major WR questions and young QBs primed for regression ... but they both have tough teams top to bottom, and I'm a believer in Harbaugh after two years of watching him return San Fran to their previous glory. The 49ers are once again the class of the league, and if Kaepernick is even 90% as good as he looked last year ... hell, 80% even ... they will be good for some time to come.
Playoffs - AFC
1. Houston
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Baltimore
6. Kansas City
Rationale: I don't like having five teams return to the playoffs, but I'm thinking the rest of the AFC might very well be that bad. First round would be Cincinnati over Kansas City and Baltimore over New England. That would leave Houston hosting Baltimore, where their "repeat" run would come to an end, and Denver hosting Cincinnati, where I would expect the Broncos to win. Houston, barring major injuries, is your AFC champion in 2013.
Playoffs - NFC
1. San Francisco
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle
Rationale: This would leave two "projected" 10-6 teams (Chicago and the Giants) out of the playoffs, so obviously do think the NFC is a better league. That said, I'm a bit happier two have two newbies in this group. First round would be Seattle over New Orleans and Atlanta over Philadelphia. That would lead to a San Francisco versus Seattle second round, which I see San Francisco winning. Green Bay and Atlanta again would be fun, and I see Green Bay winning this year. Again, the top two seeds advance and I see the top seed moving on to the Super Bowl.
Pre-Season Super Bowl Prediction: San Francisco over Houston
Rationale: Any way you slice it, this is a "chalk" prediction, but I guess I'm thinking this will be a "chalk" year. I think that San Fran has a ton of talent, and that the AFC is weak enough for Houston's talent to finally outweigh their ability to shoot themselves in the foot. At least until the Super Bowl. Outdoors, in NYC (er, New Jersey) in winter? Yeah I'd take the 49ers and their ground game and D in that scenario.
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