NFL 2013 Week Two Picks

Today: IU against Bowling Green (we only have so many chances to get back above .500 before we plummet below it for the entirety of the year), Alabama against Texas A&M (my thoughts: if the NCAA only suspended "Johnny Football" for half a game, there is no way they could justify taking Alabama's national title last year for D.J. Fluker getting paid), and then we find out if Notre Dame is half way decent (in which case they will beat Purdue by at least 31) or if they are on their way towards getting Brian Kelly fired (anything less than 31).

Tomorrow: Da Bears, general NFL fun, and then the next to next to last episode of Breaking Bad.

Sounds like a good weekend. On to the picks.

Sunday Early Games:

Atlanta (-7) over St. Louis

The reasoning: this line seems way too high given what we saw in week one. I confirmed by looking at a few online gambling websites, and it seems this line has settled in the -5.5 range rather than -7. Still, I'm sticking to my guns for consistency sake, and that means pulling the lines off ESPN. I'd be ecstatic to get Atlanta -5.5, but I think they are still the smart pick here.They will want to get back on the bike and prove that they are a team to beat in the NFC after losing to their old nemesis in New Orleans last week. St. Louis is tougher than I may have given them credit for, but I'm skeptical that Jarred Cook can continue to be focused enough to produce like he did last week. Without his help, Bradford turn much more mortal. Finally, the St. Louis run game looks like they could still use Steven Jackson, only he's in Atlanta now.

Panthers (-3) over Buffalo

The reasoning:I actually think that the Panther's offense, as neutered as it looked last week against Seattle, is better right now than the Patriots offense. By year's end, if New England gets Amendola, Vereen and Gronkowski back and healthy that shouldn't be the case. But what I heard (on the radio) Thursday night makes me think the Pats are in for a low scoring year period. Buffalo will struggle to run against the Carolina front seven, leaving it all on E.J. Manual. Meanwhile, the Panthers should be able to run well on the Buffalo front seven, and should be able to pass well.

Chicago (-6) over the ViQueens of Minnesota

The reasoning: Christian Ponder on the road is not a good thing. That should enable the Bears to put 8 in the box most of the game to stop Adrian Peterson, which is what Detroit did with success last week. The Bears should also be able to score on a Minnesota defense that suddenly looks its age. I'm just hoping that someone wakes Julius Peppers  up before I have to start making "Julius Pepper's corpse" jokes.

Green Bay (-8) over Washington

The reasoning: this line is also high, and I'd be much happier taking it if it was anything under 7. That said, I think Green Bay will cover for much the same reasons I think Atlanta will cover, and I'm not positive that Washington is any better than St. Louis. As I said in my pre-season preview, I just feel like they are a major candidate for regression.

Indianapolis (-1) over Miami

The reasoning: I don't like either of these teams this week, but gun to head I'll pick the Colts to win this week. Miami has no visible running game, and even if Miami is up six with a minute left, Luck seems to have a way of pulling these things out.

Dallas (+3) over Kansas City

The reasoning: it's early in the year, and the Cowboys like to get their fan's hopes up. Also, KC is riding high after last week, but A) that was against the freaking Jaguars, who probably need to be relegated to division 3 football, and B) Alex Smith didn't look like he believed he could throw more than 5 yards down field. Dallas will win, and then KC will be properly rated.

San Diego (+8) over Philadelphia / Philadelphia straight up

The reasoning: you know that the lines are good when there are so many games I don't like. 8 just feels like a really high line for an Eagles team that may or may not have a defense. That's the troubling thing about last week: did they run out of gas or did they let off the gas pedal? I'm not 100% sure, and I tossed and turned over this pick. Ultimately, I trust Atlanta and Green Bay to cover their "too high lines" more than I do Philadelphia right now.

Baltimore (+7) over Cleveland

The reasoning: this simply feels like a bounce back game for Baltimore. And yes I'm excited to be starting their defense against Brandon Weeden. Don't let me down boys!

Tennessee (+11) over Houston  / Houston straight up

The reasoning: this would be the third "this line is too large" hedge of the week, along with New England on Thursday (see, didn't that game suck? But I was right) and Philly above. I think Tennessee may be this year's good bad team, and I think they are tough enough to hang in, but not win.

Sunday Late Games:

Arizona (+1) over Detroit

The reasoning: Arizona is much better than Minnesota, and I think they will neutralize Reggie Bush much better. I think they can throw on Detroit as well, and this game is on the west coast.

New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay

The reasoning: I feel good about my New Orleans pick this pre-season already, and I feel pretty good about my Tampa Bay pick as well. If I'm right about both, New Orleans should win by a TD easy.

Jacksonville(+6) over Oakland

The reasoning: Well ... Blaine Gabbert is out with an injury, and Terrell Pryor can't be as good as he looked last week. I think that this will just be a game there is no chance of me watching, or me even caring about, as I have no Jag or Raider on either of my fantasy teams.

Denver (-4) over New York Giants

The Reasoning: I hate to take the team coming west to play east minus the points, but it's a late enough game that it should be ok. I think this will be a high scoring game, but I am a believer in what I saw last week from Denver. They are good to go with their 3 receiver, 1 TE, someone blocking at RB sets. Peyton will find someone open.

Sunday Night Game:

San Fransisco (+1) over Seattle

The reasoning: I seem to be in the minority that believes the 49ers are the better team. Last week saw Seattle getting shut down by Carolina, while San Fran had their way with the Packers. I just think that the niners are the superior team.

Monday Night Game:

Pittsburgh (+8) over Cincinnati / Cincinnati straight up

The reasoning: I hate hedging yet another time, but Pittsburgh's defense can still play, and that alone should keep this game to a TD or less. What's more, what I saw last week was that Cincinnati is undisciplined, and undisciplined teams keep games closer than they should.

This week against the spread: 1-0
This week straight up: 1-0
Season against the spread:11-5-1
Season straight up: 14-3