NFL Week 4 Picks

Well, let's start with the end first:

Last week against the spread: 6-9-1
Last week straight up: 8-8
Season against the spread: 24-21-3
Season straight up: 31-17

So ... yeah, last week was awful. Week two wasn't much better, but last week was one of the worst weeks I've had picking games. To give a comparison, last year this was my total record at the time that my school schedule became so busy that I stopped blogging my picks entirely: 99-73-4 against the spread, 122-53-1 straight up. Needless to say, I've got some work to do before I can get back to a record like that.

My strategy is typically to stick with my preseason picks through the first 3-4 weeks when making picks. The biggest mistake people tend to make in picking games is to over adjust to one week's information. That said, a week like last week (and, honestly, it being coupled with my week 2 performance) makes me wonder if I was just terribly off in my preseason picks. So, before the picks this week, let's take a look, division by division, to try to glean some information from the first three weeks of the season.

AFC East
My preseason pick: New England win the division, the rest are awful
Right now: New England and Miami are tied at 3-0, the NY Jets are 2-1, and even Buffalo has a win

What we've learned: Brady is missing his receivers more than even I had anticipated, and Gronkowski is still out (thank goodness I also drafted Antonio Gates). Miami is the million dollar question here: are they good, or have they been lucky? Well, they beat a Cleveland team in week one that may not be good, but is also not a team that will roll over like we might have thought. They followed that up by beating an Indy team we thought would be pretty bad, but that team just drubbed the 49ers (who I thought was going to win it all). So perhaps Indy is good, making that Miami win over Indy look better? And the, the biggest of the big wins, was the victory over Atlanta. We'll learn much more about them in the next two weeks (New Orleans and Baltimore) but their offensive and defensive stats are middle of the pack. The Jets? They are only +5 in scoring differential and barely beat the Bills and the awful Tampa Bay Bucs for their two wins. I'm not as worried about them.

AFC North
My preseason pick: Cincinnati to win the division, Baltimore to win 10 games, Pittsburgh to fall below .500 and Cleveland to be Cleveland
Right now: Cincinnati and Baltimore are both 2-1, Cleveland is being Cleveland, and Pittsburgh is even worse than I thought

What we've learned: I feel pretty comfortable with this division picks so far. Cleveland will be a tough out, and accordingly it's possible that Pittsburgh slips to last place in the division this year, but Cincinnati and Baltimore are both flawed teams, but clearly better than the rest.

AFC South
My preseason pick: Houston to run away with the division, Indy and Tennessee to be .500, Jacksonville to be terrible
Right now: Houston isn't running away with anything, but is 2-1, Indy and Tennessee are also 2-1, and Jacksonville is terrible

What we've learned: Houston's offense is not that potent, at least not right now. Indy is an enigma: they should be taking some major steps back from last year, and through two games it looked like they had. Two home games against the bad Dolphins (a loss) and the much worse Raiders (a narrow win) made the Colts at .500 seem to be a spot on pick. But, as mentioned above, the Colts killing San Francisco, coupled with Miami moving on to beat Atlanta, leaves open some major questions. Simply put: we don't know what we have with the Colts right now. .500 seems to be the bottom end of their potential now rather than the most likely outcome. The top end? It could be the playoffs... if Miami is as good as they have been so far, and if San Francisco is as good as we thought they would be. Tennessee, on the other hand, is pretty much right where I thought they'd be with wins over Pittsburgh and San Diego and a loss to Houston. Somewhat disconcerting: Houston is currently -12 in point differential, while the Titans are +4 and Indy is +20. I think that will shake out a bit in upcoming weeks, but Indy has at least given me pause. The Texans and Colts don't play until week 9, so we may not get any real info about the outcome of this division until then.

AFC West
My preseason pick: Denver to run away with the division, the Chiefs to make the playoffs with double digit wins, San Diego to be slightly below average, and Oakland to be terrible
Right now: Denver looks like a juggernaut, the Chiefs look like they'll make the playoffs, San Diego looks slightly below average, and the Raiders are on pace to be terrible, but not Jacksonville level terrible

What we've learned: This division is pretty much where I thought they'd be. So, for the AFC, I'm 2 for 4 with division picks. Although this is a good time to note that the AFC, which I had pegged to be the much weaker conference, has dominated the NFC so far this year.

NFC East
My preseason pick: I had the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Redskins in that order, saying that was the toughest division for me to pick. I rationalized that this was because all four teams were good.
Right now: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, NY Giants ...

What we've learned: Well, all are in the running for the division ... only it's because everyone is pretty awful in the division. I was right about the Redskins falling off (they are 0-3) but I was pretty wrong about the Giants (I had them at 10-6, but they are also 0-3). Also, I expected Chip Kelly's impact to last longer than the first half against Washington, but that seems to have been the extent of it.

NFC North
My preseason pick: Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota
Right now: Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota

What we've learned: starting at the bottom, I look to have been pretty right about Minnesota's smoke and mirrors act going up in smoke this year. My pick of 5-11 for them might have been a tad generous even. Green Bay has lost twice, but to two teams I had pegged for the playoffs (San Francisco and Cincinnati). Detroit is 2-1, but with wins over Washington and Minnesota. If the Bears beat Detroit this week I'll feel all in all pretty good about my picks here. Even if they don't, I think I'll be ok.

NFC South
My preseason pick: New Orleans and Atlanta at 11-5, Carolina and Tampa at 7-9
Right now: New Orleans is 3-0, Atlanta and Carolina are 1-2, and Tampa is looking awful at 0-3

What we've learned: Again, starting at the bottom, we've learned that Greg Schiano will probably not make it another year in the NFL. Carolina beating the Giants last week saved Ron Rivera his job. Atlanta starting 1-2 makes me feel pretty good about my pick of New Orleans winning the division. All in all, I think what we've learned is that the gap between the top and bottom of this division is as wide as ever.

NFC West
My preseason pick: San Fran with the best record in the league, Seattle making the playoffs, Arizona at .500 and St. Louis in last
Right now: Seattle looks like the juggernaut, San Fran is .500 (through four weeks ... Thursday night football sucks), Arizona, then St. Louis (again, Thursday night football sucks)

What we've learned: We don't know what San Fran is. Seattle looks tough. The other teams may not be that good.

So, with that review, on to the picks for week 4:

Thursday Night

San Francisco (-3.5) over St. Louis - this one was easy to pick for me: if the 49ers blew this their year might be done. It still might be, but this was a gimme

Sunday early games

Chicago (+2) over Detroit - Please note: I had a chance to go to this game and passed. I think that's good for me and for all 5 Lions fans.

Baltimore (-3) over Buffalo - hate taking road favorites, but Baltimore's D looks like it's back to good, and Buffalo doesn't seem to be able stick to what it said it wanted to do: run the ball.

Cincinnati (-4) over Cleveland - last week was Cleveland's "we aren't dead yet" statement. This week they run into a team that needs this win if they want to top Baltimore for the division. Again, a road favorite.

Kansas City (-4) over NY Giants - I hate this pick and I have no confidence in it. But after the show the Giants put up last week against Carolina how in the world can you pick them?

Pittsburgh (-3) over Minnesota - listen, Pittsburgh is bad, but Minnesota is worse. I think the Steelers D, even as broken as it may be, can key in on stopping Peterson, and then can take advantage of Mr. Sam Steele.

Arizona (+1) over Tampa Bay - I think that Schiano benching Freeman was simply to save his job ahead of next week's bye week. It's not because Glennon is a better QB. I think Arizona can come east and win the game.

Indianapolis (-10) over Jacksonville - This is not the week we'll find out what Indy is made of; if they can roll up San Fran like they did last week this should be a breeze.

Houston (+3) over Seattle - I'll jump off the Texans bandwagon if they get throttled here, but I think it's too good of a deal to take the Texans plus points at home.

Sunday afternoon late games

Tennessee (-3) over NY Jets - I like what's going on in Tennessee; not so much what's going on in the Meadowlands ... either conference of the Meadowlands.

Denver (-12) over Philadelphia - I just have to say: Oakland backdoor covering last week against Oakland after they let off the gas pedal makes me a little nervous taking them here. But only a little.

Oakland (+4) over Washington - I don't think that Washington should be favored on the road period. That defense is awful, and RGIII still doesn't look right.

Dallas (-1) over San Diego - Someone has to win the NFC East right? Right? I don't like this pick either, but I like Dallas slightly better than San Diego right now, and on an essential pick 'em line, go with your gut.

Sunday night game

Atlanta (-2) over New England - New England's D is much better than people are talking about, but Atlanta's D won't have to worry about the banged up Pats offense. This is a borderline must win game for Atlanta if they want to stay in the division hunt, so I think they can pull it off.

Monday night game

New Orleans (-7) over Miami - here is where we find out if Miami is for real or not. I'm still going to bet "not" one more week