Last week against the spread: 7-8
Last week straight up: 7-8
Season against the spread: 31-29-3
Season straight up: 38-25
So ... yeah, all that breakdown stuff didn't really help out too much. Looking at last weeks games, here were the big eye openers:
- Baltimore losing to Buffalo and Cincinnati losing to Cleveland makes me wonder big time about the toughness of the AFC North. A quarter of the way through the year and we are sitting here with Baltimore and Cincinnati tied at 2-2 with Cleveland.
- Pittsburgh losing to Minnesota makes me wonder if they wouldn't be better off tanking the rest of the year to get a high pick. Trading Big Ben for something right now would also be a strong move ... if the Steelers management can stomach rebuilding. There are plenty of years of evidence that this isn't the route they will take. Keep in mind this is a franchise that has had exactly three coaches since 1969 (Noll, Cowher and Tomlin). They like to have consistency, and they like to keep their team in some level of playoff contention every year. In fact, consider the teams record each year since hiring Noll:
- 1969: 1-13 (the start of the Noll years)
- 1970: 5-9
- 1971: 6-8
- 1972: 11-3 (Playoffs)
- 1973: 10-4 (Playoffs)
- 1974: 10-3-1 (Won Super Bowl)
- 1975: 12-2 (Won Super Bowl)
- 1976: 10-4 (Playoffs)
- 1977: 9-5 (Playoffs)
- 1978: 14-2 (Won Super Bowl)
- 1979: 12-4 (Won Super Bowl)
- 1980: 9-7
- 1981: 8-8
- 1982: 6-3 (Playoffs)
- 1983: 10-6 (Playoffs)
- 1984: 9-7 (Playoffs)
- 1985: 7-9
- 1986: 6-10
- 1987: 8-7
- 1988: 5-11
- 1989: 9-7
- 1990: 9-7
- 1991: 7-9 (Noll's Last Year)
- 1992: 11-5 (Playoffs) (Cowher's 1st Year)
- 1993: 9-7 (Playoffs)
- 1994: 12-4 (Playoffs)
- 1995: 11-5 (Lost Super Bowl)
- 1996: 10-6 (Playoffs)
- 1997: 11-5 (Playoffs)
- 1998: 7-9
- 1999: 6-10
- 2000: 9-7
- 2001: 13-3 (Playoffs)
- 2002: 10-5-1 (Playoffs)
- 2003: 6-10
- 2004: 15-1 (Playoffs)
- 2005: 11-5 (Won Super Bowl)
- 2006: 8-8 (Cowher's Last Year)
- 2007: 10-6 (Playoffs) (Tomlin's First Year)
- 2008: 12-4 (Won Super Bowl)
- 2009: 9-7
- 2010: 12-4 (Lost Super Bowl) (Year Gregg Came Out As Packers Fan)
- 2011: 12-4 (Playoffs)
- 2012: 8-8
- Okay, now that I typed all that out, what does it tell us about the Steelers? First, this 0-4 start has them in line for some historically bad football by Pittsburgh standards. 1969 bad. Noll's first year bad. Since that 1-13 year in year one of the Noll regime, the Steelers have had four years with double digit losses: 1986 (ten losses), 1988 (eleven losses), 1999 (ten losses) and 2003 (ten losses). At the rate they are going this year (and, the way they should keep going if they want a good chance at rebuilding quickly) they will blow past 11 losses. Compare that with the twenty one years that they have had double digit wins in that same period, and ... wait a minute, why in the hell am I Bears fan again?!?!?!? Sorry, that just came out. I'll try to stay focused. So, point one is that this year is historic for this franchise that has made the playoffs twenty six times since 1970. Point two is that Mike Tomlin is almost assuredly safer in his job than any other coach this side of New England. It would be one of the biggest shocks in modern sports if they let him go given their history of standing by coaches through down periods. The third point: can you imagine a coach with as mediocre a record as Noll had in the 1980s lasting longer than 3 years in today's NFL? Yeah, I can't either.
- Another team that would benefit from tanking for a high pick: the NY Giants. You've gotta figure that Coughlin is safe with his two Super Bowl rings ... but he doesn't coach in Pittsburgh.
- Somehow New England is 4-0. And New Orleans exposed the Dolphins as being a potential "good-bad team candidate" for this year.
So, with these things in mind, on to the picks:
Thursday Night Game
Buffalo (+4) over Cleveland - First, THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SUCKS. Seriously, is there any redeeming quality to this money grab? While you are giving that some thought, read this article about a new book coming out, remind yourself that the NFL ownership is likely to drive the league to ruin over the next 20 years due to concussion and injury issues they've tried to sweep under the rug, and then ask yourself what it means that we (myself very much included) love the NFL so much. Thursday Night Football is an example of the brazen lack of concern for the players health on behalf of the owners. Also, these teams are scary similar: underrated Ds, disappointing running games, huge question marks that are capable of big games at QB, rookie head coaches. Idea: can we combine the teams together and split home games 50/50 between Buffalo and Cleveland? Who says no to that first? (Hint: not the three remaining Bills fans).
Sunday Early Games
New Orleans (-1) over Chicago - Um ... did anyone watch the Jay Cutler melt down against Detroit? Yeah ... this Saints D is much better than Detroit's D, and the Saints offense would be the best in the league if Peyton wasn't doing historically silly things in Denver. I'm fully prepared to watch my Bears get taken to the wood shed Sunday.
New England (+1) over Cincinnati - Brady is getting in rhythm with his WRs and will get Gronk and Amendola back someday soon. Cincinnati losing last week to Cleveland makes me unsure what to do with them.
Green Bay (-8) over Detroit - this line is way too high, but the Pack has had two weeks to plan for this game, and they need this win to not fall dangerously behind in the division.
Kansas City (-3) over Tennessee - with Locker out I'll go with KC ... but they've got to lose sometime right? Their D is fierce, Charles is insane right now, but Alex Smith looks like a rich man's Trent Dilfer. That can't last forever, right? Right?
Seattle (-3) over Indianapolis - I just hope the Colts lose. That's my only thought on this one.
St. Louis (-13) over Jacksonville - this line is insane. St. Louis is not a good team, and yet they are favored by nearly two TDs. This shouldn't happen in the NFL. And yet, until the Jags prove they can score, I cannot pick them. Next week they play Denver. I would take Denver -35.
Baltimore (+3) over Miami - I think the Saints showed cracks in the Dolphins attack, and I think Baltimore is going to be an up and down team this year... and this is the week for the up. Also, I could use a good week from Joe Flacco in fantasy football ... you know, if you're listening Joe.
Philadelphia (+1) over NY Giants - well, since I picked both these teams to win 10 games or more, seeing them at a combined 1-7 through four weeks is a bit disheartening. For the Eagles to have any shot of rebounding to win the division (also my pick) they have to win here. The Giants have been just bad enough to make me believe that can happen.
Sunday Late Games
Arizona (+2) over Carolina - Carolina shouldn't be favored on the road unless they are playing Jacksonville.
Denver (-9) over Dallas - Peyton is playing better than ever. How is this possible? One answer: Steroids. Second answer: he's an android.
Sunday Night Game
San Francisco (-6) over Houston - both these teams really need this game. I think Houston is starting to lose confidence in Schaub, so I'll lean towards San Fran.
Sunday "Whoops, the A's made the playoffs so we have to start this at nearly midnight in the East" game
San Diego (-4) over Oakland - I won't be staying up for this one
Monday Night Game
Atlanta (-11) over NY Jets - this is a good line. I've gotta believe the Falcons want a statement game after a 1-3 start.
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