MLB 2010 - A Fools Breakdown

Let's be honest: The real world doesn't give me as much time as I used to have. If I ran into a 13 year old version of myself I would tear my predictions apart. Back then I devoured Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News, pouring through stats to determine who was doing what in baseball. Now? I'm just happy that I know that the season started tonight, that the Cubs open tomorrow, and that I know why Tyler Colvin is. With that in mind, take these predictions for what they are: a common man's attempt at breaking it down.

AL East - 1. NY Yankees, 2. Tampa Bay Rays, 3. Boston Red Sox, 4. Baltimore Orioles, 5. Toronto Blue Jays

Why this will happen: New York made some smart moves this offseason (Hello Curtis Granderson) and some moves that boggle the mind (didn't we already try the Javier Vazquez in New York experiment once?), but what we know for sure is that if they stay healthy they are by far the most talented team in the AL. The Rays have so much young talent that it isn't funny, and I think that the Red Sox will wish they had a big bat who is clutch. Baltimore is a year or more away, and Toronto will struggle quite a bit.

One prediction to take to the bank: Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs last year while playing half his games in cavernous Comerica park in Detroit. Yankees stadium, where he will play half his games this year, turned Johnny Damon into a power hitter last year due to the short porch in left. ESPN is projecting Granderson to hit 25 home runs this year. Let's just say that I would take the over here. Way over. Like 35 or more.

AL Central - 1. Minnesota Twins, 2. Chicago White Sox, 3. Cleveland Indians, 4. Detroit Tigers, 5. Kansas City Royals

Why this will happen: Minnesota has the most talent, and they will trade for San Diego closer Heath Bell if their in house options don't fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. The White Sox have a closer who is about to melt down, and lack the punch in the middle of the lineup unless Quinten or Rios bounce back. While their rotation looks good I'm not entirely sold on Jake Peavy in the AL. The Indians have some young talent, but they aren't in the same class as the first two teams. I almost forgot about Detroit, which probably is not a good thing, and the Royals have one ace and one young first baseman ... and then who? If Grienke and Billy Butler are the first and last things people can identify on your team, and if you were thinking about starting Kyle Farnsworth, you may be in trouble.

One prediction to take to the bank: Zach Grienke will see his production fall off after his Cy Young campaign last year. Why? He's on my fantasy baseball team. Also, Fausto Carmona, of Cleveland Indians fame, will have a big bounce back year (15+ wins, sub 4.00 ERA).

AL West - 1. Seattle Mariners, 2. LA Angels, 3. Texas Rangers, 4. Oakland A's

Why this will happen: this division will be close, but the Mariners have the pitching and defense to take advantage of the Angels steps back. I like the team's build, and I think that LA may have lost too many pieces to keep their run of success alive. The Mariners success will be directly tied to how many stints on the DL Cliff Lee and Erick Bedard make. If the two lefties stay healthy(ish), along with King Felix, they will win some games. Texas is another competitor for the division; Oakland is at least a year away.

One prediction to take to the bank: Milton Bradley, with Ken Griffey Jr. to mentor him, will hit .300 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, and be considered to be a revelation. I will continue saying that the Cubs screwed up by not following the Dennis Rodman corollary: only pick up the head case if you have a strong on field leader and a strong coach.

NL East - 1. Philadelphia Phillies, 2. Florida Marlins, 3. Atlanta Braves, 4. New York Mets, 5. Washington Nationals

Why this will happen: Philadelphia is the most talented team in the NL, and perhaps in baseball. Roy Halliday might win 25 games this year if Brad Lidge doesn't blow every save. Florida has a ton of young talent as well (noticing a pattern) and Atlanta will also be in contention for the wild card, but I think Florida might have the horses to make the jump this year. New York is a poorly constructed team playing in a field that kills right handed hitters (bye, bye to that Jason Bay guy). Washington will finally be interesting when they call Strasburg up.

One prediction to take to the bank: Roy Halliday will win the NL CY Young award ... and Phillies fans will spend time wondering why the team didn't keep Cliff Lee too.

NL Central - 1. Chicago Cubs, 2. St. Louis Cardinals, 3. Cincinnati Reds, 4. Milwaukee Brewers, 5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6. Houston Astros

Why this will happen: The Cubs still don't have a leader, but they suddenly have some young position players poised to make the jump: Tyler Colvin, Sterling Castro, even Josh Vitters. The Cards are due some bad luck, and Pujols is slowly but surely breaking down. Also, Chris Carpenter is due for another Tommy John surgery. The Reds and the Brewers are two candidates for a dark horse run at the division title, but I think the Cubs can leg it out. I think the Astros will be really bad, and that Pittsburgh's young talent will surprise by avoiding a last place finish.

One prediction to take to the bank: the over under for number of times I bemoan the Alphonso Soriano contract this year is 50.5. I will go WAY over if Tyler Colvin looks as good this season as he did this spring ... yet has to sit behind Soriano because of how much he's being paid.

NL West - 1. Colorado Rockies, 2. Arizona Diamondbacks, 3. LA Dodgers, 4. SF Giants, 5. San Diego Pirates

Why this will happen: because the Dodgers have gone cheap and the Rockies and D' backs have talent. The Giants have some pitching, but little hitting. San Diego's top moment of the year will be seeing what kind of talent they can get for Heath Bell, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.

One prediction to take to the bank: If Brandon Webb makes 25 starts or more the Diamondbacks will be the number one contender for the division; if he doesn't they will finish third or worse.

AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Rays (Wild Card)
NL Playoff Teams: Phillies, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins (Wild Card)

ALCS - Yankees over Twins
NLCS - Phillies over Cubs
World Series: Phillies over Yankees