** All statistics in this post are courtesy of Basketballreference.com **
I have often wondered about the NBA's list of the 50 greatest players. It was released in October of 1996, and included Shaquille O'Neal (the having played four seasons in the NBA), but didn't include Dominique Wilkins, among the most prolific scorers of my young life. Wilkins and Shaq at that point had the same number of NBA titles: zero. Wilkins was an 8 time All-Star, Shaq was a 4 time All-Star. Shaq was unquestionably on his way to a great career, but Wilkins had already had a great career.
In hindsight, the NBA got it right: Shaq is now a 14 time All-Star, a four time NBA champion, a 3 time NBA Finals MVP, and earned a league MVP for his 1999-2000 season. Wilkins was out of the league during the 1995-1996 season, but came back to play a forgettable year for the Spurs in 1996-1997, and an even more forgettable one for the Magic the following year. Still, the fact that Wilkins wasn't on the list bothered me, and still does to this day: how could a man who averaged 25 points per game, who was as iconic as any secondary star of the era, not be on this list?
And so today I will being to break down my list of the 50 greatest as they stand today. I am going to count down from the honorable mentions, then 50 through to number one in my opinion. Yes this means I will be ranking them. I will use statistics in some instances, but also opinion and gut feelings as well. And I will, hopefully once and for all, put to rest the myth that Reggie Miller is an all time great worthy of enshrinement in the NBA's Hall of Fame. So, without further ado, here is the first installment of my new 50 greatest list.
Five who might crack the list someday:
5. Yao Ming - Yao is something the league has rarely, perhaps never seen. At 7'5" he is a giant even by basketball standards (he is listed at 7'6" in some places). He has a soft shooting touch, shooting 83% from the free throw line for his career. He was the number one pick in the draft in 2002, and since then he has made all seven NBA All-Star teams (even if it was in part to the foreign vote). His career numbers thus far even place him on par with some of the NBA's greatest centers of all time: 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.9 BPG. If he were to continue this level of production for another five to eight years he would undoubtedly be on par with a Ewing, Schayes or Thurmond. The question, however, is if he will remain healthy enough. Since playing at least 80 games in each of his first three seasons Yao has been injury prone. He played between 48 and 57 games in years four through six, and while he played in 77 games last year, he suffered a severe foot injury in the playoffs. Health seems to be the biggest obstacle (along with the Chinese national team) in the way of Yao ascending this list.
4. Carmelo Anthony - The number 3 pick in the 2003 NBA draft, 'Melo will forever be tied to two people: LeBron and Darko. He has been a bit on the immature side since leaving Syracuse after only one year, but in college he won a national title, and in the pros he has shown some ability to become a team player and a deadly scorer. Through six years he is averaging 24.2 PPG, 6.1 RPB, 3.1 APG, as well as a little over 1 SPG. If Carmelo continues to improve as a teammate, and if he continues to have talent around him in Denver, he may be able to ascend to the top of the Western Conference as Duncan and Bryant age. He certainly has the skill set to make this list in the future.
3. Dwayne Wade - What a draft 2003 was: LeBron, Carmelo, and Wade. To this point Wade has the only NBA championship of the three, and his stat line is on par with the greatest of all time: 25.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 6.7 ASP, 1.8 SPG and just under 1 BPG. He shoots an impressive 48% from the field, and has the ability to create his own shot better than almost anyone in the league. As with Yao, however, he has had injury issues, and his style of play will do nothing but continue those concerns. If Wade can stay healthy, as he did last year whey he played in a career high 79 games while putting up a stat line of 30 - 5 - 7.5, then he will easily make this list in five to ten years.
2. Chris Paul - CP3 is less accomplished than Wade, but he is a rarer commodity: a small guard who can dominate the game by himself. The only thing we've seen close to him is Isiah Thomas, and it's because of that he is number two on this list. Four years into his career Paul makes triple doubles at six feet tall, he drops 30 points, he's capable of 20 assists, and he plays defense that makes him a total nightmare. With a statline of 19.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 9.9 APG and 2.4 SPG he is on his way, but what makes it even more impressive is how rapidly he is improving. His three point shooting and selection are rapidly improving, and along with that last year Paul hit over 50% from the field, all while averaging a stat line of 22.8 - 5.5 - 11 - 2.77. If he keeps his production near that level for another five years he will shoot up this list.
1. Dirk Nowitzki - Dirk's statline and unique skill set has him on the absolute verge of this list. He doesn't crack the top 61 because he doesn't have a ring, and he's not quite to the iconic level necessary to carry a spot without a ring. He has eight All-Star appearances, an MVP and a finals appearance to his credit. His stat line (22.7 - 8.6 - 2.7) is good, and he averages around 1 block/ 1 steal per game. His defense will never be the best, but it's very rare to have a seven footer knock down threes with 38% accuracy. If Dirk gets his ring or plays at this level for another four years he'll be hard to keep out.
4 who won't crack the list - why Reggie doesn't fit:
Reggie Miller ... is he even a Hall of Famer? He certainly doesn't crack the list of the 50 greatest, but here I'd like to make a broader point about his HoF candidacy: he doesn't belong. Look at the following six stat lines:
Player A) 20.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.21 SPG, 9 All-Star appearances
Player B) 21 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.24 SPG, 6 All-Star appearances
Player C) 18.2 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, 1.08 SPG, 5 All-Star appearances
Player D) 16.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.5 APG, .89 SPG, 6 All-Star appearances
Player E) 17.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.53 SPG, 1 All-Star appearance
Player F) 18.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.1 APG, .96 SPG, 3 All-Star appearances
Now, these six stat lines look pretty similar, but they begin to come into more focus if we add the following numbers:
Player A) 1 NBA championship as a "star"
Player B) 1 NBA championship as a "role player"
Player C) 0 NBA championships
Player D) 2 NBA championships as a "star" and in the HoF
Player E) 0 NBA championships, in the HoF
Player F) 1 NBA championship as a "role player"
So who are the elite six here? In order: Ray Allen, Mitch Richmond, Reggie Miller, Joe Dumars, Calvin Murphy and Glen Rice.
Allen and Dumars had big roles in championship teams, and Allen's numbers are far and away better than Reggie's. The player who Miller most closely aligns with statistically is player B, Mitch Richmond, who actually had better numbers than Miller. Richmond isn't a HoF caliber player. Neither is Miller. Players B through F aren't on this list; we'll discuss Ray Allen later.
1 player who defies logic:
Robert Horry ... what gives with this man? His stat line (7 - 4.8 - 2.1) is that of a role player, which he was. He also was solid on the defensive end, averaging close to one steal and block per game. But, outside of MJ, who in the past twenty years has hit more big shots that Horry? Horry also has an astounding SEVEN (!) NBA championship rings. Statistically there is no way that Horry makes this list, but I would be shocked if he didn't make the HoF. He kept finding a way to be a huge part, a crunch time player, on team after team that won the title.
Next time I'll look at numbers 61-51: those who just missed the cut.
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