Almost There...

It's hard to believe that NFL training camps are in full swing, with the start of the regular season about a month away. I, personally, couldn't be any more excited. The NFL is the premiere sport in the USA right now, and the product it presents makes it not even close. The start of the NFL season means a number of things to me: time to draft my fantasy football teams, fall is on the way, time to bust out my Walter Payton and Brian Urlacher Jerseys, time to cherish my rare Sundays off, and time to think about my annual preseason predictions.

I'm not quite there yet (I need to give some more thought to the NFC West, the AFC South, the NFC East and the NFC South, among others), but soon, very soon there will be a huge post on this blog breaking down each of the divisions, culminating in my Super Bowl predictions. I've been pretty accurate the last three years, so we'll see if I can keep that up.

As for today, this article by Don Banks of SI.com got me thinking about the Bears in particular. It seems that Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith have decided they are now a pass first team. This makes me cry inside, and makes me a bit upset on the outside. The Bears, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, are teams with a tradition built on running the ball, playing amazing defense, and controlling the clock. Basically, you grind the opponent into submission, and win the game on the line of scrimmage.

It's a beautiful way to play football, one with its roots in the oldest days of the NFL. Adding Jay Cutler gives the Bears an option that they haven't had in my lifetime: the option to throw down field and score quickly. If any of our wide receivers develop into starting quality players (and that's a big if), we will have the ability to put points on the board which we've seemingly always lacked. Greg Olsen and Matt Forte, our starting tight end and running back respectively, are excellent receiving options in their own right, but for Cutler to be truly effective he will need at least one possession receiver to move the chains, and a speed guy to stretch the defense.

Maybe Earl Bennent, Cutler's old college teammate from Vandy, will be the move the chains possession guy. Perhaps Devin Hester, with his game breaking speed, will be the deep threat that takes the safety with him deep. If it works out that way the Bears will have the makings of a potent offense. But the biggest reason they need to stay true to their grind it out, eat up the clock, control time of possession roots has nothing to do with the offense. It is because of the defense.

Two years ago at this time we had an amazing defense. It had just carried us to a Super Bowl appearance, and we were poised to go back. But the defense got old, and quick. Brian Urlacher's back and neck got in the way, Tommy Harris lost his burst and couldn't stay healthy, and the entire defensive line suddenly was incapable of getting to the QB. The way that Lovie's defense (the famed "Tampa 2") works, it is essential that the front four get pressure on the QB by themselves. If the front four can't get the job done the defense must send a blitzing linebacker or safety, leaving a hole in the coverage. In 2005-2006 the front four got pressure, and the Bears had an excellent defense that was capable of winning games without much help from the offense. The past two years, 2007 and 2008, the opposite has been true; the defense can't get the opposing offense off the field.

If the front four can take care of business then the defense will have the chance to be lethal again, but even if that happens the defense is getting older. Charles Tillman, one of our starting cornerbacks, is already out with back surgery. Nathan Vasher, our other starting CB, has seen his level of play slip greatly the past two years. We lack experience at the safety positions without Mike Brown, who couldn't stay on the field when he was here. Our linebackers, headed by Urlacher and Lance Briggs, also has seen better days. Even on the defensive line we see the age, as our top defensive ends, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, aren't getting any younger. We are getting older everywhere, and the best way to keep an old defense fresh is for the offense to control the time of possession.

The long and the short of it is that I disagree with Angelo and Smith's revelation that we need to pass first, then run. Of course, if you know my feelings on these two, you'll note that I don't agree with them too often. At least Angelo had the guts to pull the trigger on the Cutler trade this year; in years past he refused to because we already had "a great QB," no matter who our QB was. Still, Angelo's supposed strength, draft evaluation and execution, has been lacking greatly, while Smith has been exposed as a poor game manager who ran a good defensive coordinator (Ron Rivera) out of town, and then replaced him with a nobody (Bob Babich) who Lovie himself now has to take over for. Add in the nightmare that has been Ron Turner's tenure with the team (second tenure at that), and the decision making of management has to be questioned.

All that said, the future is bright now in Hallas Hall, although not quite as bright as it could have been. Angelo and Smith squandered the prime of one of the NFL's best defenses, and now they must try to make up for lost time. The right thing to do would be to work through this as a multi-year rebuilding process which has been spurred along by the acquisition of Cutler. But Smith and Angelo can't afford to rebuild; if they do they will be watching the fruits of their labor from another team, or from the unemployment line. To that end, if they really want a chance to win, the way to do it is by controlling the clock, allowing the defense the best chance to stay fresh and have an impact. Listening to Smith and Angelo talk about how they "disagree" with the experts who are questioning their talent at WR is an awful lot like listening to them argue that Grossman and Orton were the answers at QB. Nobody likes to admit they have holes in the team, but pretending you don't doesn't change reality, it just gets you into situations where you hold on to the wrong player for the wrong reasons. What Bears' management needs to do is be happy with the pick up of Cutler, but acknowledge that it is a work in progress. They need to game plan to help the defense be all it can be, and find ways to cut down on Matt Forte's touches so that he doesn't burn out in three years. Cutler needs to become an on-field coordinator, which he can be in time, so that Ron Turner's role is limited. If the Bears can do all this then they should be the favorites to win the division. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: I'm ready for some football.