Two Tickets To Paradise?

Paradise? What is it, and how will we know when we get there? Those are the questions that will be answered tomorrow, in concurrent games. Last week I inverted myself from week one, but still went 5-3 over all, bringing my post season record to 10-6. Let's just say that I'd be making money this postseason ... if gambling were legal. Last week: 2-2 against the spread, 3-1 on the money line. I was perfect heading into Sunday, but Seattle couldn't cover when Chicago decided they wanted to show who was boss, and ... what the heck happened with New England? Wow. So here we are: Championship Sunday. The Bears and the Steelers are hosting their respective title games. Are the sports Gods finally giving me what I deserve, or are they about to stick it to me worse than any time since Bears V Colts?


SUNDAY'S GAMES

3:00 PM EST - Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears

The Sports Gods Hate Me: Green Bay has a ton of speed, a ton of talent, and they can rush the passer better than anyone. The Bears, you may or may not have heard, can't block a blind kid on roller skates. Green Bay has the better QB, the better receivers, the better defense ... they should have this game wrapped up if you are listening to the media, all of whom proclaimed the Packers as the golden team at the start of the year. And ... um ... did you see what they did to Atlanta last week? Crap... Oh yeah, and we also had a chance to eliminate them from the playoffs week 17 and didn't, so we are playing them because we didn't finish them off when we had the chance. That's usually not a good sign.

I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Bears - Saints had a similar feel in 2006: the Bears were given a bad rap heading in due to an inconsistent offense, and they were facing the up and coming dynamite offense in the league. Furthermore, Green Bay shouldn't be able to light it up on Soldier Field's actual football surface like they did on the fast track indoors. The irony of this matchup is that Green Bay, our oldest rival, one of the few teams who know that football is meant to be played like men, out doors, has a team that fits better in a dome. Additional irony? The Bears might fall into that category as well. But for this game it should help the Bears more than hurt them, as it should slow the receivers and pass rush that the Pack used so effectively last week.


Look at this line: the Bears and Pack split the regular season, including a final game that was win or else for Green Bay in which the Bears shut out the Packers offense for 48 MINUTES. But, as I told Bowser last Saturday while Green Bay was decapitating Atlanta: "no way Green Bay isn't the favorite in this game." Still, I'm shocked the line is this high.

The Breakdown: Green Bay has the advantage on the offensive side of the ball by far (the only area you could even give to Chicago would be the running game, if Martz decides to use it). Still, I got the feeling that Chicago tried to beat Green Bay week 17 without using its' offense at all. I think they came in to the game and said "let's see if we can be the Pack, on their field, using our defense and special teams alone." And you know what: we almost did it. On the defensive side of the ball Green Bay was fifth in total yards allow, while Lovie's "Bend and hope you don't break" defense ranked ninth. In points allowed per game the Pack was 2nd (15 flat per game) while the Bears were 4th (17.9 per game). Our special teams are vastly superior to Green Bays, and that will help to determine field position. This is a game that can be had, so long as the Bears do not make critical mistakes. Last week Cutler had two throws where the Seahawks player flat out dropped the interception. Green Bay won't do that; Williams and Woodson are ball hawks in the truest sense of the word, and Matthews, A.J. Hawk and Collins will kill you if you have indecision. Chicago can win this game ... if Jay Cutler can play like Aaron Rogers and not like the ghost of Sexy Rexy has taken over.

How I jinxed the team: I might have told my parents that I would find a way to be in Dallas in two weeks if the circumstances were right. Probably shouldn't have said that.

A final word: How crazy is it that the Bears might actually have the coaching advantage in this game? Mike McCarthy is one of the worst game managers in the league; he calls stupid time outs, doesn't understand the flow of the game, and generally is a bone head. Lovie isn't great, but I feel like he's a tiny bit better here. Still, this game is going to come down to who wants it more, and who forces the other team to make the big mistake.

The Pick: Bears +4 over Green Bay / Chicago 27 - Green Bay 24 (OT)

(That's right, overtime baby. In the word's of then Senator, now President Obama, from Bears - Saints: "It's been a great ride, but the fairy tale ends Sunday at Soldier field." I hope that sentiment rings true this week).

6:30 PM EST - NY Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

The Sports Gods Hate Me: I've picked against the Jets two straight weeks, and they've won two straight weeks. Their coach and players have been talking crap, but somehow not getting bad karma for it. Every game is the most important, personal, monumental game in Rex Ryan's life somehow. Mark Sanchez, easily one of the ten worst starting QBs in the NFL today, somehow has won four road playoff games in two year, tying him for the most all time. Pittsburgh also has no offensive line ... at all ... and boatloads of bad karma with the Big Ben. Plus, New York has now taken down the top two QBs of the past decade by most measures (Manning and Brady). Only Big Ben stands in their way of the trifecta of AFC QBs.

I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Pittsburgh is better coached, has the better QB, the better WRs, and the better defense. Pittsburgh is playing at home, Pittsburgh knows how to win big games. And, as they showed last week, they know how to take a stomach punch (down two TDs to Baltimore at the half) and rebound. They make big plays. Plus my "Deranek - 88" Steelers jersey won them the game last week. It's good luck.


Look at this line: I'm a bit nervous that it's -4 for the Steelers; that means the money and public sentiment is coming down pretty strongly on the Pittsburgh side of the equation. I would have felt quite a bit more comfortable if it was -3, particularly since the Jets already beat Pittsburgh once this year.

The Breakdown: Of course, that defeat was against a Pittsburgh team that was more beat up, and it still barely happened. Pittsburgh has the better defense and the QB you'd want doing a two minute drive with this game on the line. At the end of the day it is just so hard for me to comprehend the Jets, with a QB who can't make throws half the time, winning three straight road games to make it to the Super Bowl. And then there is this: only one team in the history of the NFL has made it to the Super Bowl as a #6 seed. The Jets and Packers are the six seeds in their respective conferences. Is this really going to happen? I can't see it happening at all; Pittsburgh has played sneaky tough all year, and they were my preseason AFC champion. 'Nuff said.

How I jinxed the team: Like I said: Steelers #88 Jersey with Deranek on the back. Great Christmas gift. Not good in the Karma department. Also, if I pick Pittsburgh here I am basically begging the Jets to become this year's version of the Arizona Cardinals: beat my picks three straight weeks into the Super Bowl. Maybe they are peaking at the right time.

A final word: If Rex Ryan manages to get a team QB'd by Mark "Sexy Rexy Clone" Sanchez into the Super Bowl, he would own one of the greatest feats in the history of the NFL. He really has put his best foot forward by taking all the pressure off his team with his crazy antics. It really show that Buddy used to give him a kick in the ass when he was younger. It's amazing to think that this Jets team, which destroyed New England last week, was only able to get by Indianapolis by a foot. (Actually, let's just move this paragraph up to the "how I jinxed the team" category. Damn you Wes Welker).

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-4) over NY Jets / Pittsburgh 20 - New York 13

(Final side note: taking Pittsburgh minus the points is not easy; this game could end up by a field goal very easily. But come on, the dream is still alive, and deeper in the year than at any point in my lifetime. Two tickets to paradise?)