Super Bowl Sunday

After taking two weeks to digest the latest stink bomb dropped on my heart by Lovie and company, my breakdown of the Superbowl seems very anticlimactic. Still, here it is. Keep in mind that I enter this game with a 12-8 record (combining picks against the spread and straight up). Time to break it down, spot by spot.

Quarterbacks: The edge is tough to define here. In the one corner you have the hottest QB in the NFL today, Aaron Rodgers. In the other corner, a two time Super Bowl champion, Ben Roethlisberger. Both QBs are adept at making plays on the run, out of the pocket, which is good for both teams since neither offensive line is great. At the end of the day I think Rodgers is more banged up than Big Ben, and he certainly didn't look great in the second half against the Bears. Scoring this like a boxing round: Big Ben 10 - Rodgers 9.

Running Games: Not even close here. Green Bay employs a bunch of overrated nobodies, while Pittsburgh has Mendenhal and Moore, as well as Redmond, who can all do well in their respective areas. This might be a bit closer if Ryan Grant were healthy. Steelers 10 - Packers 8

Wide Receivers: This, again, is close. The Packers have a slight edge in supposed number ones, with Jennings being better than the aging (albeit gritty) Hines Ward. But that leaves an advantage for Pittsburgh in Mike Wallace over the aging (and not gritty) Donald Driver. Pittsburgh has young wide receivers who have done well; Green Bay has unheralded wide receivers who make big catches. This comes down to one name, however: Randel El. Edge goes to Pittsburgh based on the super utility Hoosier. Steelers 10 - Packers 9

Tight Ends: Heath Miller trumps it here, only because Finley is out with an injury. Steelers 10 - Packers 9.

Offensive Lines: Pittsburgh was horribly banged up heading into the Championship game; with Pouncey likely out this goes heavily in Green Bay's favor. Even if their line isn't exactly impenetrable, it's much better than Pittsburgh's. Packers 10 - Steelers 7.

Defensive Line: With Aaron Smith out for Pittsburgh they lose some depth, but Green Bay has been beaten up all year. Pittsburgh has the edge in experience, with the ageless Casey Hampton clogging the middle, and Bret Kiesel's beard doing the work of two men at end. But Green Bay has the impact player here: B.J. Raji. Slight edge to the Pack. Packers 10 - Steelers 9.

Linebackers: Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk are good. But Farrior, Woodley, Harrison and Timmons are other worldly. Pass rushing, dropping into coverage ... Pittsburgh's linebackers as a group are better than Green Bay's linebackers. Steelers 10 - Packers 9.

Secondary: Polamalu being healthy makes this close, but Green Bay has an entire secondary that can make plays. Their corners are just better than Pittsburgh's. Green Bay 10 - Steelers 9

Special Teams: The Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league, but the Steelers have a kicker who doesn't inspire confidence. This is an ugly draw: Steelers 10 - Packers 10.

Coaching: Now we get down to it: I trust Mike Tomlin more than Mike McCarthy. By a long shot. Pittsburgh also has a better overall coaching staff. McCarthy is much more likely to make a "Lovie Smith Memorial 'Why the HELL did he do that?!?!?!?'" call than Tomlin is. Steelers 10 - Packers 8.

So, adding it up:

Pittsburgh: 95

Green Bay: 92


It should be a close game, but the slight edge goes to Pittsburgh. The line is Green Bay (-3) v Pittsburgh.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (+3) over Green Bay / Pittsburgh 27 Green Bay 21

Until next year (or the year after, lockout pending)...