NFL - The Year In Review

And now, finally, we head into week 17, the last week of full NFL football for over a year if the owners have anything to say about it. It has been a wild and whacky year, and so in hindsight I'll review my preseason picks (posted here) and figure out what I was right about, what I was wrong about, and what just doesn't make any sense. Then, starting next week, we'll go with the playoff picks.

AFC EAST

Preseason predictions: New England (11-5), Miami (10-6), NY Jets (7-9), Buffalo (3-13)

Through week sixteen: New England (13-2), NY Jets (10-5), Miami (7-8), Buffalo (4-11)

What I was right about: in August my Uncle and I had a discussion about New England, and Tom Brady in particular. I stated that I thought Brady would have a resurgent year, due in large part to having a year under his belt since his knee injury. My Uncle proclaimed Brady to be done, based on the logic that he had the rings, the super model wife, and wasn't going to be as devoted to the trade as in years past. We agreed to disagree. For once I was more than right; Brady's season might be the best year a QB has had in NFL history, particularly when you consider that one of his four interceptions was on an end of half Hail Mary, the talent around him was either rebounding from serious injury (Welker), over the hill (Branch) or unknown castoffs (rookie TEs, Woodhead and Green-Ellis). One year after I lamented the fact that Manning was on the verge of making "Manning or Brady" a legitimate argument, Brady has made it laughable again.

What I was wrong about: I expected the Jets to fall much more spectacularly, and while I was mostly right about their flaws (highly overrated QB, poor decision switching Thomas Jones for Tomlinson, a defense with too many egos and not enough discipline), they are good enough to make the playoffs, and they have enough talent to make some noise again this year. So, by default, I was wrong in calling for the Jets demise this year. Leading the Jets to consecutive playoff appearances is quite the feat for Rex Ryan.

What doesn't make any sense: The Miami Dolphins: 1 and 7 at home, 6 and 1 on the road. Miami fans have had a rough year, between the Heat having to teach their fans how to be fans, and the Dolphins having the exact opposite of a home court advantage.

AFC North

Preseason predictions: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (10-6), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (4-12)

Through week sixteen: Pittsburgh (11-4), Baltimore (11-4), Cleveland (5-10), Cincinnati (4-11)

What I was right about: in the preseason I stated that "even with a porous offensive line the Steelers will reassert themselves as the top team in the AFC north." So far, so good. I also correctly projected a playoff year for Baltimore, and a regression from the Division Champ to out of the playoffs for Cincinnati, as well as a poor year for Cleveland.

What I was wrong about: I also wrote about Cincinnati that "Cincinnati has all kinds of warning flags for me: a QB who has looked progressively more washed up with every year, a RB who has no heart and poor secondary numbers, two big mouthed diva WRs, and a coach who nobody is sure is actually good." Even with realizing all of that I didn't devalue the Bengals enough. This is how bad the Bengals season was: a co-worker of mine, a life long Bengals fan, finally decided enough was enough this year, and he dumped the team. That's right, he disowned them, held a multi-week search for a new team, and finally settled on the New York Jets. I can't say I condone this action, but I at least appreciate what drove him to it.

What doesn't make any sense: I'm still puzzled by Cleveland giving millions of dollars to Jake Delhomme's corpse. It doesn't make any more sense now than it did at the time. Thank God, for the city of Cleveland's sake, that Delhomme got hurt. Only Jake's play could make Colt McCoy look like a franchise savior.

AFC South

Preseason predictions: Indianapolis (13-3), Houston (11-5), Tennessee (8-8), Jacksonville (8-8)

Through week sixteen: Indianapolis (9-6), Jacksonville (8-7), Tennessee (6-9), Houston (5-10)

What I was right about: Check out my quote from the preseason and tell me this isn't hauntingly prophetic: "the Colts have become like a bad horror movie: every time you think they are dead you walk away, fail to finish the deed, then they come back and maul you. Someone needs to cut their head off, but looking at this group I'm not sure anyone is capable of it." Now, flash forward to week 14. The Colts are 6-6, the Jags are in control of the division, even Houston and Tennessee have outside chances. Three weeks later, and none of the group were capable of finishing the Colts off. Somehow, this team is going to be in the playoffs again, as the division champs again.

What I was wrong about: I vastly overrated Houston's ability to capitalize on all their talent. They should have just collectively retired after beating the Colts week one. That was the high point of their season.

What doesn't make any sense: Ok, the idea that Peyton Manning is playing with a group of players so inferior to Tom Brady this year is ridiculous. Peyton, welcome to Tom's world: playing with castoffs, late round draft picks, and washed up veterans. With the lone exception of a two year honeymoon with Randy Moss, that's been his entire career. You know, while you've been berating a few guys by the names of Harrison, James, Faulk, Wayne, and Clark. The Manning myth is the most impressive thing the NFL has ever constructed.


AFC West

Preseason predictions: Oakland Raiders (9-7), San Diego Charges (8-8), Denver Broncos (7-9), Kansas City (6-10)

Through week sixteen: Kansas City (10-5), San Diego (8-7), Oakland (7-8), Denver (4-11)

What I was right about: The Chargers really did find a way to blow the division, and Oakland really did improve quite a bit. My preseason Oakland prediction wasn't actually as crazy as you thought, was it?

What I was wrong about: I vastly underrated the impact that the Chiefs would get out of getting the band back together: Charlie Wise and Romeo Crennel both did wonders for their respective sides of the ball, and for the second time in three years Matt Cassell looks like a competent QB. Thomas Jones just keeps on delivering playoff appearances for whatever team wakes up and realizes he still a productive running back. I'm so glad the Bears dumped him a few years back for Cedric Benson. Jerry and Lovie, you guys are absolute geniuses. (Help me. Lovie has a gun to my head right now. SEND HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

What doesn't make any sense: The Chargers have the second best offense in the league, and the best defense in the league. Can we all just agree to fire Norv Turner now, and never rehire him? I feel like I need to hold an intervention for NFL owners. Seriously guys, this never ends well. The Norv train ain't never late.


NFC East

Preseason predictions: Dallas (13-3), NY Giants (10-6), Washington Redskins (8-8), Philadelphia (6-10)

Through week sixteen: Philadelphia (10-5), NY Giants (9-6), Washington (6-9), Dallas (5-10)

What I was right about: Not much. I suppose you can say that I was pretty spot on in my analysis of the New York Giants, even though most in the media didn't like them to return to the playoffs. I was also right in my "why this won't happen" section, when I stated "Wade Phillips outweighs his talent."

What I was wrong about: I clearly stated that Dallas had too much talent to do exactly what they did: crap the bed, or billion dollar stadium, so to speak. Can we also agree never to hire Wade Phillips again? If only I'd followed my Norv logic through to the end I wouldn't have missed this one by so much. I also didn't envision Michael Vick becoming the captain of the most exciting offense in the NFL. Although I did see it coming after his week one performance, when I picked him up for my fantasy teams.

What doesn't make any sense: Mike Shanahan just benched Donovan McNabb, right after extending him for $78 million dollars, for Rex Grossman. I take back my preseason assessment that you wouldn't mind having Shanahan run your team.


NFC North

Preseason predictions: Green Bay (11-5), Chicago (10-6), Minnesota (7-9), Detroit (6-10)

Through week sixteen: Chicago (11-4), Green Bay (9-6), Minnesota (6-9), Detroit (5-10)

What I was right about: Almost everything; in fact, were it not for a multitude of injuries for Green Bay I'm thinking I might have been dead on. I told you that the Bears would win just enough for management to extend Lovie. And I couldn't be more excited about it. The man truly is a coaching genius. Who's Mike Ditka? (PLEASE SEND HELP. I'M AFRAID LOVIE IS GOING TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SINCE HE WILL ALMOST UNDOUBTEDLY MAIL THIS WEEK'S GAME IN, A TERRIBLE ... I MEAN, GREAT STRATEGY. I SAID GREAT STRATEGY LOVIE. WAIT, LOVIE .... NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!)

What I was wrong about: Pretty much nothing except for not projecting that Green Bay would look more like a trauma ward and less like a football team this year.

What doesn't make any sense: Why does Brian Urlacher not care anymore? Did last year really mellow him out this much? While watching the Bears get ripped apart by New England the most depressing part of the game was that nobody seemed to care. Three years ago Urlacher would have ended someone on the sidelines, on the field, something. What happened big guy? Who knew your heart was actually located in the wrist?


NFC South

Preseason predictions: New Orleans (14-2), Carolina (11-5), Atlanta (9-7), Tampa Bay (5-11)

Through week sixteen: Atlanta (12-3), New Orleans (11-4), Tampa Bay (9-6), Carolina (2-13)

What I was right about: The streak of non-concurrent division winners continues ... which I mentioned in the section about why my prediction for this division would not happen. Crap.

What I was wrong about: I refuse to believe that I picked Carolina to go 11-5 this year. This part of the picks section had to have been hijacked by The Wiese. There is no way that I would have ever typed the words "I believe in Matt Moore."

What doesn't make any sense: Why I was stupid enough to pick Carolina to go 11-5. On the whole I didn't do too bad this year. But this pick is pretty embarrassing. Even Lovie is laughing at me.


NFC West

Preseason predictions: San Francisco (11-5), Arizona (8-8), St. Louis (5-11), Seattle (4-12)

Through week sixteen: St. Louis (7-8), Seattle (6-9), San Francisco (5-10), Arizona (5-10)

What I was right about: That's a good question. I guess I was right about this division not being any good, and being "super weak." I was so right about that read that we are getting the following promo this Sunday night: "Rams! Seahawks! A five hundred or worse playoff team is only sixty minutes from being crowned. A playoff play in on NBC!" Even Collinsworth can't sell this right?

What I was wrong about: I'm sorry Mike Singletary. I believed in you. I'll still wear your jersey proudly. But you were not very good as a coach.

What doesn't make any sense: I'm having trauma echos about betting against the NFC West champ in the first round, and I don't even know who they champ will be yet. The reason? Betting three straight rounds against "the worst team to ever make the playoffs" two years ago (9-7 Arizona) only to have them march to the Super Bowl. History can't repeat itself ... right?


Preseason Playoff Predictions

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Houston Texans
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Carolina Panthers
6. New York Giants


Likely Playoff Teams through week 16.

AFC:

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Indianapolis
5. Baltimore
6. NY Jets

(this could be shifted upside down if Pittsburgh and KC lose, and the Colts, Ravens, and Jets win. Then it would be 1. New England, 2. Baltimore, 3. Indianapolis, 4. Kansas City, 5. NY Jets and 6. Pittsburgh. And yes, I have that memorized. Seeding is important for playoff picks. And even though it isn't likely to happen, I suppose the Jags beaten corpse could win, with the Colts losing, resulting in the Colts missing the playoffs and the Jags as the 4 seed. Please?)

NFC:

1. Atlanta
2. Chicago
3. Philadelphia
4. St. Louis
5. New Orleans
6. Green Bay

(Atlanta could still lose the number one seed or division heading into the final week. Fear the Panthers Atlanta. This is John Fox's last game, and like I ... I mean, like The Wiese said earlier this year, the Panthers are going all out for him. It's time for win number three baby!

...

...

I'm back. Beyond that, Seattle could be the 4 seed if they beat St. Louis, the Bears could be the one seed if they win and Atlanta and New Orleans lose, the NY Giants could be in if they win and Green Bay falls to Chicago. But that six looks likely to me. So there.)

And so, in comparison, I (most likely) got four of six AFC teams correct (New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indy) while missing on the AFC west (KC not Oakland) and the other wild card team (NY Jets, not Houston ... never Houston). I only got one certain, and no more than two NFC teams correct (New Orleans and probably Green Bay.

50%

That's the NFL baby. At least my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl (New Orleans over Pittsburgh) is still alive. Although I could have sworn I took Pittsburgh. Maybe The Wiese wrote that part too, huh Lovie?