I had been in a bar with my brother earlier that year arguing that if the Broncos really wanted to get rid of Jay Cutler then the Bears had to make the move to get him. Cutler's numbers thus far had been good, but compared to the junk the Bears had rolled out week ... after week ... after week of my lifetime they looked downright epic. Cutler was coming off of a year in which he threw over 4,500 yards. While the ensuing eight years of NFL football have cheapened that number, it's still a semi-impressive number, and it was even more impressive back then. Cutler played on a team with awful defense, and hadn't been able to win. But the Bears, always seeming to be a quarterback away, would fix that problem for him. They had a great defense, and were only a few years away from playing in the Super Bowl. All they seemed to need was a competent quarterback, and Cutler promised to be much more than that.
The trade was made, and almost immediately upon being announced there was drama. Team leader and future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher gave the most lukewarm welcome to the team imaginable to Cutler, while praising the outgoing Orton. Word leaked that Cutler had refused to return the Broncos' calls for over a week preceding the trade. There was smoke that perhaps the fire of a premadonna burned deep inside Mr. Cutler. But the Bears had a QB, and suddenly they also had a brighter future. Or so we thought. That future didn't come in 2009, Cutler's first year. An injury to Urlacher in the season opener damped spirits, and the team limped to a 7-9 record. I continued my calls to fire Lovie Smith, calls which went unheeded, much like most of my calls for moves by the teams I root for (see above). The 2010 season was a pivotal one for Smith's Bears, after missing the playoffs for three straight years following the 2006 season which culminated in the Super Bowl loss to the Colts*. The Bears pulled together to save Smith by winning the NFC North with an 11-5 record, and winning in the Divisional Round of the playoffs by ousting the Seattle Seahawks. An NFC Championship Game with the Green Bay Packers loomed ... and Cutler "got hurt." Of course he did. Somehow, it appeared that the Bears didn't even have a backup quarterback on the roster, or any player beyond Cutler who had ever played quarterback. Sure, Caleb Hanie was "listed" as a quarterback, but anyone who watched that game knows the Bears were screwed when Cutler "went down**." He just stood there, on the sidelines ... looking like he didn't care ... as the Packers held on to beat the Bears. The would go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.
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Cutler's career in Chicago since then has been pretty bad overall. His numbers have been intermittently good, and they have been stellar compared with the history of Bears quarterbacks, but the results for the team just haven't been there. All through it, Cutler has pretty much looked like this:
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| Smokin' Jay Cutler just don't give a ... |
Needless to say, things aren't trending in the right direction. The Bears resigned Cutler before the 2014 season, coming off his best statistical year in year one of the Marc Trestman disaster. It was a huge deal, or at least it was reported to be. Seven Years. $126.7 million dollars. That's $126,700,000. That's a lot of money. Many people have torn into the Bears over signing Cutler to this contract, but let me ask you this: have you ever looked at a list of starting Bears quarterbacks in the last 30 years? No? Well, good news my friend. I'm here to help you. Beyond Cutler, here you go (starting with the most recent non-Cutler starter, going back to the Super Bowl year of 1985):
- Brian Hoyer
- Matt Barkley
- Jimmy Clausen
- Josh McCown
- Jason Campbell
- Caleb Hanie
- Todd Collins (Note: from Collins up on this list are the Quarterbacks who have started for the Bears in place of Cutler. Because he's been injured that much. Another factor to consider.)
- Kyle Orton
- Rex Grossman
- Brian Griese
- Craig Krenzel
- Chad Hutchinson
- Jonathan Quinn
- Kordell Stewart
- Chris Chandler
- Jim Miller
- Henry Burris
- Shane Matthews
- Cade McNown
- Erik Kramer
- Steve Stenstrom
- Moses Moreno
- Rick Mirer
- Dave Krieg
- Steve Walsh
- Jim Harbaugh
- Peter Tom Willis
- Will Furrer
- Mike Tomczak
- Jim McMahon
- Mike Hohensee
- Steve Bradley
- Steve Fuller
- Doug Flutie
That is 34 quarterbacks, beyond Cutler, in 31 years. That, my friends, is terrible. And many of the quarterbacks listed above were terrible. In fact, you probably have never heard of some of them. Beyond that, I probably could have made up a name, slipped it in there, and most Bears fans wouldn't be able to tell. In fact, I might have done that. Or not. But here's another way to look at the Bears' quarterbacking situation over the last 31 years. This is the list of seasons in which the Bears only started one quarterback for all 16 games during that time period:
- 1991 - Jim Harbaugh
- 1995 - Erik Kramer
- 2006 - Rex Grossman
- 2009 - Jay Cutler
And...that's a wrap. Four seasons out of 31. Hold on, I'm curious about something...
- 1986, 1989, 1993-2009, 2012, 2014-2016
That's the list of seasons, since 1985, in which the Green Bay Packers have started only one quarterback for all 16 games. That is 23 of 31 seasons. Of course, I cherry picked the Packers, due to their stability at quarterback between Favre (he accounted for every year in that streak from 1993 until 2007) and Rodgers (every year in that streak since 2007). But it serves to prove the point: the Bears have had really crappy quarterbacks, and have had to shuffle them in and out to injury and ineffectiveness at a maddening rate. Imagine if there was a major business that shifted managers in and out at that rate. Would we be surprised they had gone 31 years without being the top in their field? Ultimately, that's where the Bears have been.
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And that, finally, brings me to my point on this post (I know, I'm killing all 1.75 of you with my long preambles. But I'm writing again!). My purpose in this postis to ask a simple question, and attempt to give a not so simple answer. Here is the simple question:
Should the Chicago Bears keep Jay Cutler or cut Jay Cutler?
That question is valid because of the structure of that huge aforementioned deal. There was $54 million guaranteed in that contract, but now, with the first three years in the past, there is next to nothing left to hit the cap. If the Bears cut Cutler this year there would be $2,000,000 worth of dead money on the cap this year, and $1,000,000 next year. They would save a total of $30,000,000 beyond that against the cap by cutting him. The contract was one of the rare good moves the Bears have made recently because it got them a few more years to see if Cutler would put all the pieces together, all while giving them a great deal of flexibility to move on with next to no dead money on the cap once they got through three years of the contact. And so, from a financial perspective, it could easily be argued that yes, the Bears should cut him.
But the Bears already project to have just over $54 million in open cap space heading into this offseason. That is the eighth most in the league, and plenty of money to do quite a bit without touching Cutler. Because of that I would argue that, at a minimum, they should hold on to Cutler until the last possible moment, before his roster bonus is set to kick in. That gives them maximum flexibility to make the decision.
But it doesn't tell you what decision they should make. Should the Bears keep Cutler for next year? Ultimately, that comes down to what their other options are, and how they rank vis a vi Cutler. If I were to make a very quick ranking of NFL QBs by tier, this is how I would do it:
- Tier One: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers
- Tier Two: Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson
- Tier Three: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins
- Tier Four: Matt Stafford, Jamis Winston, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Eli Manning
- Tier Five: Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco
- Tier Six: Tyrod Taylor, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, Trevor Siemian
- Tier Seven: Whatever/Whoever starts for the Browns, 49ers, or Rams, along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler
Now, I left Cutler out of there (along with the Matt Barkley/Brian Hoyer pu pu platter). Where would you realistically put him on that list? I feel very confident he's above tiers seven and six. Banged up? He fits in the fifth tier for me, but healthy he easily makes it into the fourth tier for me. And that is where this becomes difficult. The Bears have a tier four/tier five QB on what amounts to a year to year contract, with no long term commitment. They have the money to spend, so it's not like they have to cut him to pay other players. The question becomes can the Bears feasibly get a QB who will be able to play their way into the top three tiers?
Realistically, the best chance they have for that is to draft one. The league is trending younger, overall, and getting a young QB who can become the next Dak Prescott, or even Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins (meaning they would take a few years to get there) is the best direction, if you can pull it off. Teams don't trade franchise quarterbacks, and if they seem like they are about to it's probably a bit of an illusion (in fact, Cutler is exhibit A in that regard!). A name often floated, in the opposite direction, is Tony Romo. But Romo's injury history isn't any better at this point that Cutler's, and his history of winning isn't any better either. Besides that, Romo would cost you more money, plus draft picks Cutler is virtually free to the Bears at this point. Finally, best case scenario, does Romo crack the third tier at this point in his career? History says no. How about paying multiple first round picks for Jimmy Garoppolo? Given how well Matt Cassell and Brian Hoyer (among others) careers have worked out after they left their backup role in New England for other jobs, I'm not willing risk that much if I'm the Bears.
In a weak QB draft, the Bears' best bet might be to bring Cutler back, then, and draft for depth at other positions. Take a swing on a QB in the middle rounds and hope you get lucky. Build the offense around timing routes and Jordan Howard, and focus on improving an already improving offensive line and defense. Until week 17 of the last seasons I hadn't seen the Bears give up on a game. They were notorious for playing tough for a half and then getting outclassed in the second half. They didn't, if I dare say, look that far away. The NFL is designed for quick turnarounds, and Cutler may in fact give the Bears their best chance of that. As long as they don't mortgage their future for that hope, I'm fine with it. And Cutler's unique contract structure makes it so that they can keep him another year... or two ... or three ... or four, without mortgaging anything. And at the end of the day, that's why we should still care about Jay Cutler ... even if Smokin' Jay doesn't ever look like he cares back.
* As an aside, the Bears Super Bowl loss stings less to me now than it did even a year ago. We can all thank the Cubs for that. Thanks Cubs!
** That, in large part, is what contributes to the deep disdain fans feel for Cutler. He just stands there and doesn't look invested. It is the "Smokin' Jay" persona that spawned so many memes. Come to find out, Cutler really was hurt in the NFC title game, asked to go back in and was told an unequivocal no by medical staff. But he just stood there, didn't look like he was in pain, and didn't look like he cared. Inside, he might have been dying. He might have been in significant pain, and been being eaten up by the fact that his team was so close to the Super Bowl and he couldn't help them. We'll never know. Ultimately, however, it was Lovie Smith who screwed him the most by refusing to rule him out in some misguided attempt to confuse the Packers. When your coach is playing games, mid game, with injuries hoping that throws the opponent off their game ... how did we not fire that man earlier? Please, tell me? It's one of the biggest mysteries of my life.
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