NFL Recap - How did the POV do?

After starting off strong this NFL season, posting picks weekly (and not doing too shabby at that) I fell off the deep end. A strong combination of life circumstances, work, and school will do that to you. I didn't even do my halfway point recap of the NFL this year. Rough times, indeed. But I will stop by now to recap the NFL season, and to take the opportunity to look forward to my playoff picks. Year after year I search for the perfect playoff picks: 11-0. I've been picking the games since that fated 1998 season (8-0 heading into the conference championship games, only to watch Gary Anderson kill my playoffs), and I've never come as close as I did that year. So hopefully a review of the year that was can help me to examine what is coming up in the next month plus.

AFC East

Preseason prediction:

1. New England - 13-3
2. New York - 10-6
3. Miami - 7-9
4. Buffalo - 5-11

Final Record:

1. New England - 13-3
2. NY Jets - 8-8
3. Miami 6-10
4. Buffalo - 6-10

What I got right: I hit the Pats right on the head, at 13-3. I also got the order the teams finished exactly right, although it took a monumental collapse in Buffalo, coupled with a surge from the Dolphins to accomplish that one.

What I missed: I didn't think that this would be the year that the bottom gave out in New York. I gave them enough of a benefit of the doubt to project ten wins, but I also said things like "I do not believe in Mark Sanchez" and I called this team "a house of cards." If only I'd followed my convictions a bit more I would have predicted this exactly.

AFC North

Preseason Prediction:

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - 11-5
2. Cleveland Browns - 9-7
3. Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
4. Cincinnati Bengals - 1-15

Final Record:

1. Baltimore - 12-4
2. Pittsburgh - 12-4
3. Cincinnati - 9-7
4. Cleveland - 4-12

What I got right: Pittsburgh made the playoffs. Other than that, not a whole lot.

What I missed: I overvalued Cleveland badly. Their offense fell on harder times rather than improving, their defense was nothing special ... what did I see in this team again? I'm guessing it was their easy schedule. I also discounted Baltimore's ability to integrate veterans, which they did fine, and I completely whiffed on Cincinnati, saying "Cincinnati has a chance to be historically bad." In the extended edition of the blog I would have also mentioned "but I believe that Andy Dalton, combined with A.J. Green, will rejuvenate the Bengals."

AFC South

Preseason Predictions:

1. Houston Texans - 9-7
2. Tennessee Titans - 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts - 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11

Final Records:

1. Houston Texans - 10-6
2. Tennessee Titans - 9-7
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11
4. Indianapolis Colts - 2-14

What I got right: Pretty much everything. I hit the Jags on the head, was close with the Texans and Titans. I hedged my Colts bet, picking 7-9 assuming a Manning return around week 5, but I also noted "if he misses the whole year they may be 3-13." So I'm willing to say that I hit this division pretty much head on.

What I missed: I'll just take this moment to apologize to my father for pining his fantasy season on Peyton's neck. Manning keeps sticking it to me even when he isn't playing.

AFC West:

Preseason Prediction:

1. San Diego - 12-4
2. Oakland - 8-8
3. Denver - 6-10
4. Kansas City - 5-11

Final Record:

1. Denver 8-8
2. San Diego 8-8
3. Oakland 8-8
4. Kansas City 7-9

What I got right: Kansas City did regress to the mean, Oakland did jump to 8-8, and Denver did improve.

What I missed: Norv Turner successfully ruined the most talented team in the division, and somehow isn't fired as of this moment. I also failed to foresee the Broncos turning to Tebow Christ, who, through a vigorous prayer schedule, managed to lead Denver to an improbable comeback and division crown. I can't decide if I'm giddy to be against them in the playoffs or terrified of betting against T.C. I think terrified.

NFC East

Preseason Predictions:

1. Dallas Cowboys - 11-5
2. New York Giants - 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles - 8-8
4. Washington Redskins - 6-10

Final Record:

1. NY Giants - 9-7
2. Philadelphia - 8-8
3. Dallas Cowboys - 8-8
4. Washington - 5-11

What I got right: well, this pretty much says it all. And I quote "Stay with me here: I think Philly is due for a major crash. I don't buy Vick staying healthy or getting as lucky as he did with interceptions last year. Their offensive line makes the Bears' line look good. They have a ton of egos, and a moron backup QB who already labeled them the team of destiny. I see them struggling big time out of the gate and not righting the ship quick enough." I couldn't have hit that one better if I had asked T.C. for the outcome. I also hit the Giants record head on, and narrowly missed on the Redskins.

What I missed: Dallas is star crossed, and I'm starting to think that Jerry Jones must have sold his soul for the early 1990s teams ... or that Jimmy Johnson put a curse on the Cowboys when Jerry forced him out ... or that karma is just piling it on for Emmit Smith holding on just to break Walter's record. Either way, there is only one way left for Jerry to right this ship: trade Romo for T.C. and let the prayer circles begin.

NFC North

Preseason Predictions:

1. Green Bay - 12-4
2. Detroit Lions - 10-6
3. Chicago Bears - 7-9
4. Minnesota Vikings - 6-10

Final Records:

1. Green Bay - 15-1
2. Detroit - 10-6
3. Chicago - 8-8
4. Minnesota - 3-13

What I got right: again, pretty much everything. I hit the Lions on the head and narrowly missed on the Bears. The Vikes were even worse than I predicted, and the Packers were slightly better. Six divisions in and I'm doing pretty well.

What I missed: The Bears would have made the playoffs and probably finished with 11 wins if not for the injuries taking hold. That said, a large part of the reason I picked them to go 7-9 was because they had been so lucky with injuries the year before. I wrote at the time that Lovie didn't feel any pressure because he got a contract extension. I'm so glad we can look forward to another year or two of horrible personnel decisions and inept clock management. Lovie is the friggin gift that keeps on giving.

NFC South

Preseason Predictions:

1. New Orleans - 12-4
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Tampa Bay - 8-8
4. Carolina - 2-14

Final Records:

1. New Orleans 13-3
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Carolina - 6-10
4. Tampa Bay - 4-12

What I got right: the top half of this division, led by a dominate Saints team (I wrote "New Orleans has the experience and the stability I'm looking for") and a solid Falcons team. I also said "Tampa will regress to the mean." Which was correct. I just didn't realize how hard of a fall it would be.

What I missed: The bottom half of the division. "Carolina is going to be a train wreck." (Gulp). "Cam Newton is Vince Young redux." (GULP). I'll probably regret having written that.

NFC West

Preseason Predictions:

1. St. Louis - 8-8
2. Arizona - 7-9
3. Seattle - 4-12
4. San Francisco - 3-13


Final Records:

1. San Francisco - 13-3
2. Arizona 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. St Louis - 2-14

What I got right: I'll take credit for nearly hitting on Arizona. I'll also try to convince you that I had a typo, and meant that San Fran would go 13-3, not 3-13.

What I missed: Mike Singletary really is that bad of a coach. And Jim Harbaugh really is that good. Also, St. Louis sucks. I forgot that "Cardinal" rule.

AFC Playoff picture (listed in order of seed):

Preseason Predictions:

AFC Playoff Teams: New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston, NY Jets, Cleveland (gulp!)

Final Standings: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati

What I got right: I hit on New England and Houston, and had Pittsburgh in. So, 3-3, with two head on.

NFC Playoff Picture (listed in order of seed):

Preseason Predictions:

NFC Playoff Teams: New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, Atlanta, Detroit

Final Standings: Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, NY Giants, Atlanta, Detroit

What I got right: I hit on the Packers, Saints, and both the Falcons and Lions as Wild Card teams. If the Cowboys hadn't choked this would have looked real good. 4-2, with four direct hits.

Preseason Super Bowl Pick: Pats over Saints (I strangely feel pretty decent about this right now)