The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2012, Part 1

Now, with the recap behind us, we move on to the real meat of the NFL season. All the fantasy football, all the regular season picks, all the games lead to this moment: playoff football. There is nothing like the NFL playoffs when it comes to picks, nor gambling. Last year I picked each game straight up and with the spread, and I'll do the same this year. The search for the perfect year is on, and right at the start we are given a difficult game in Cincinnati and Houston. Also, ESPN doesn't have lines, so we are moving to footballlocks.com. Without any more delay, here are the picks:

Saturday 4;30pm

Houston (-3) vs Cincinnati

Background: Houston comes into the playoffs stumbling, and one has to wonder if they have had too many major injuries to withstand at this point. Andre Johnson is banged up and a shadow of his former self, but him playing is essential to the Texans having a chance. The luster has also worn off of the T.J. Yates show, and the Texans have lost three in a row. The Bengals, on the other hand, made it into the playoffs after going 3-5 in their final eight. They also lost to the Texans four weeks ago, 20-19. Looking deeper into that game you'll see that Cincinnati led most of the game and that Houston needed a last second TD to win. Looking further, however, will show you that Houston outgained the Bengals 412 to 285, and that it was the four Texans turnovers that kept the game really close.

The Numbers: Houston was 13th in total offensive yards; Cincinnati was 20th. Houston scored 23.8 points per game, good for 10th in the league, while Cincinnati scored 21.5, good for 18th. Houston was 2nd in rushing yards per game, where Cincinnati was 19th. On defense Houston was 2nd in total yards, and Cincinnati was 7th. Against the run Houston was 4th, and Cincinnati was tenth. Houston was fourth in points per game, Cincinnati was ninth (17.4 v 20.2).

The Logic: As banged up as Houston is, limping into the playoffs, they have the real advantage of playing an equally inexperienced playoff team. The Bengals are that team that isn't good, and somehow wins on grit. They seem to do this every few years now a days. Benson isn't a good running back, but he finds a way to grind out yards. Dalton isn't a great QB, but he can manage a game. The defense is solid, but unspectacular. This game could go either way, and Vegas thinks these teams are even. In a coin toss I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the superior running game and defense of Houston.

The Pick: Houston (-3) over Cincinnati / Houston 20 - Cincinnati 13


Saturday 8:00PM

New Orleans (-10.5) vs Detroit

Background: last year the Saints were an 11 point road favorite and lost outright. This year they are a ten and a half point home favorite. They have been hot down the stretch, winning eight in a row. The Lions, meanwhile, are 5-6 in their last 11 after a 5-0 start, and have looked downright human at times. Oh, and they gave up 480 passing yards and 6 TDs to the Packers yesterday, which is expected because Aaron Rodgers has been great all year. What's that? Rodgers didn't really play? Matt Flynn put up those numbers? Oh ... and five weeks ago New Orleans won by two TDs. Hmm...

The Numbers: The Saints were first by a wide margin in total yards; the Lions were fifth. In passing yards the Saints were first, the Lions fourth. The Saints can run a bit (sixth at 132.9 ypg) ... the Lions can't (29th at 95.2 ypg). Both teams have potent offenses that thrive in their home dome environments (Saints 2nd at 34.2 ppg, the Lions 4th at 29.6 ppg). On the other side of the ball, Detroit is 23rd and New Orleans 24th in yards per game. Detroit was 22nd in passing defense, while New Orleans was 30th. New Orleans was 12th against the run, while Detroit was 23rd. Finally, New Orleans held their opponents to 21.2 points per game (good for 13th in the league) while Detroit allowed 24.2 points per game, which placed them 23rd.

The Logic: The Saints are clearly the better team, and I'm hopeful that last year's playoff choke will inspire them to greater things this year. Both teams have potent offenses and porous defenses. It should be mentioned that Detroit is superior in the turnover battle, sitting at +13 (third overall in the NFC) while New Orleans is at -4. I don't expect either team to really stop the other offense much, but I do feel that New Orleans has the better chance of doing that, as the Lions can be painfully one dimensional. I sense a late cover for the Lions, so I'm going to split this pick.

The Pick: Detroit (+10.5) over New Orleans / New Orleans 38 - Detroit 31


Sunday 1:00PM

NY Giants (-3) VS Atlanta

Background: a third straight home favorite, and a second one where Vegas is essentially saying the teams are even. I'm going to go in brief here, by telling you what I think we know about each of these teams. For New York, I think we know that they are more potent passing than running, they have some backbone (as seen in the last two weeks), and their defense can make plays, even if it is a shadow of what it once was. For Atlanta, their running game isn't as good as it used to be, Matt Ryan is good but not yet great, and the defense is solid if unspectacular. Both teams were on the right side of the turnover battle at +5 and +6 respectively. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside; the Giants are an outdoor team built to play inside.

The Numbers: Starting with the defense, the Giants were 25th and the Falcons 18th in points per game. The Giants, however, gave up the 27th most yards per game, while the Falcons were a much more respectable 12th. On offense, the Giants were 8th and the Falcons 10th in yards per game, while in points per game Atlanta was 7th and the Giants were 9th. The most shocking aspect of the numbers game is that Atlanta is middle of the pack in rushing offense (where you'd expect them) but the Giants are dead last. In other words, the weather in New York has the potential to hurt the Giants more than help them.

The Logic: The Giants righted the ship in the last two weeks, but prior to that they were 1-5 in their last six. Atlanta, meanwhile, took care of business down the stretch, losing twice to New Orleans and once to Houston while going 8-3 in their last eleven.

The Pick: Atlanta (+3) over NY Giants / Atlanta 27 - NY Giants 24

Sunday 4:30PM

Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver

Background: Last year the Saints were 11 point favorites on the road, so I'm a bit surprised this line is this low. The shine seems to have come off the T.C. era in Denver already, as Timmy has played very poorly in the last three games. Pittsburgh's defense should be able to dominate the one dimensional Broncos' offensive attack.

The Numbers: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the league both in YPG and PPG. Denver was 24th in PPG and 20th in YPG. On offense, Pittsburgh was 12th and Denver 23rd in YPG, and Pittsburgh was 21st in PPG while Denver was 25th.

The Logic: I have Pittsburgh as one of my conference finalists, and no matter how rough the offense looks, the defense should have a heyday here.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-8) over Denver / Pittsburgh 24 - Denver 9

So, to recap, baring any injuries this week in practice or other unforeseen calamities, I'll take two favorites (Pittsburgh and Houston) and two dogs (Detroit and Atlanta) against the spread, and the straight up picks are Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Unless something else comes up, enjoy the NFL playoffs next weekend!