2012 NFL Picks Week 3

Sometimes I am very glad that I don't bet copious amounts of money on the NFL. Last week was one of those times. After two weeks, one eighth of the way through the season, almost everything I thought I knew at the season's onset is being called into questions. The AFC East is a bunch of 1-1 teams, with each team having one game where it looked like a potential division champion and one game looking like a scrub. Arizona, one of my picks to be the laughing stock of the league, is 2-0 with a victory over New England, my preseason pick to win it all. Above all else, my Bears proved emphatically that Lovie still has not learned to game plan, or at least that he has no idea how to go after the Packers.

Looking at this another way, consider the following:

- six teams are 2-0; of those teams, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Houston and maybe San Diego can be expected, while Arizona couldn't have been.
- 20 teams (including the entirety of the NFC North and AFC East are 1-1, most of them looking great one week and awful the next.
- The remaining six teams are 0-2; of those teams New Orleans might be the biggest surprise, but Kansas City has certainly surprised me with their level of stink (roped in by Romeo Crennel again!)

Twenty teams doing a Jekyll/Hyde act ... I suppose that explains a bit of why I have no idea who to pick this week. However...

9-6-1 against the spread. That was my record last week, which shocked me (again, I struggled with the late games). 9-7 straight up. In a week that felt totally hectic, my picks weren't actually that bad. So what to make of all of it? I have a few thoughts on the NFL right now:

1. The replacement officials have added a degree of variability to the product on the field. The Rams-Redskins game was the most blatantly physical game in the better part of a decade. The Falcons-Broncos game showed the same thing: teams are looking for ways to take advantage of the rules. Mike Lombari was on the Score (670 AM Chicago) this week and stated that he hasn't seen one instance of the illegal contact call made this year. This rule, remember, was the "Peyton Manning Rule," instituted after Bill Polian whined to the NFL about the Patriots playing physical defense on the Colts WRs. Essentially, you can't contact a receiver at all after 5 yards ... except the first two games of this year when, apparently, you can. The officials have yet to completely blow a game, at least as near as I can tell (and please understand that I've only seen one game this year so far: Bears V Colts). But the impact of the officials is vastly changing the way teams are playing.

2. The regression of the big three is fully in progress. Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were heads and shoulders above all others in the league. This year all three are playing much more human. Take it from me (starting Rodgers on my fantasy team): this is very real. It has also led to those three starting the year 2-4. If I had given you that bet at the start of the year you would have said they'd have more than two wins.

3. With all the young QBs starting in the league right now teams don't have the consistency they might have had with a veteran hand at the helm. Couple that with some atrocious offensive lines (Chicago and Pittsburgh) and you have a huge number of teams that will look all world one week, and worth of the top pick in the draft the next.

If I had to do a power ranking of the NFL teams, grouped by where I see them fitting into the big scheme, it would look this way:

Top Pick Here We Come! (The Matt Barkley Sweepstakes)

32. Oakland (0-2) - After making Ryan Tannehill look like Joe Montana, I believe Oakland is that bad.
31. Cleveland (0-2) - I still don't believe in Brandon Weeden.
30. Kansas City (0-2) - And that's how my AFC West pick loses me after two games. ROMEO!!!!!
29. Jacksonville (0-2) - I still don't believe in Blaine Gabbert.
28. Tennessee (0-2) - Their offensive line is downright offensive, leading to Chris Johnson getting 24 yards on 19 carries, leading to my fantasy team completely being a nightmare. Thanks Tennessee offensive line.
27. Miami (1-1) - AND I still don't believe in Ryan Tannehill
26. Arizona (2-0) - Yeah, I still don't believe. Also, I might be a bit upset that Larry Fitzgerald had 4 yards receiving last week. Yes, he's on my fantasy team.

The Best of the Bad Teams (good enough to rope you in, bad enough to blow a game when you bet on them)

25. Minnesota (1-1) - Ponder is probably the second best QB on the roster, yet he starts.
24. Indianapolis (1-1) - Luck will be up and down this year, but looks like he has the tools. Again, however, a porous offensive line.

The Team That Might Just Be Screwed This Year (as if bounty gate didn't already prove that)

23. New Orleans (0-2) - This just seems like the type of year where everything that can go wrong will go wrong. If I was Drew Brees I'd take out insurance against a significant injury.

The Complete Enigmas (teams that could go either way, and have huge question marks)

22. Carolina (1-1) - Is there a running game in Carolina?
21. St. Louis (1-1) - Is Sam Bradford a franchise QB?
20. Buffalo (1-1) - Is there talent here, or is it just an illusion? What is Ryan Fitzpatrick?
19. Seattle (1-1) - Should Russell Wilson really be starting over Matt Flynn?
18. Washington (1-1) - Can this offense adapt and gain complexity?
17. Cincinnati (1-1) - Can the Bengals play with the big boys? They sure looked bad against Baltimore.
16. Tampa Bay (1-1) - Are the Bucs 10-6 quality (2010) or as bad as last year? Can Schiano coach with the big boys?
15. Detroit (1-1) - Can a team win without any semblance of a running game? Also, can a team survive a coach who struggles with emotional control?
14. Dallas (1-1) - Can their offensive line block like they did against the Giants, or will they be as porous as they were in Seattle?
13. Chicago (1-1) - Will Lovie ever be able to game plan for a better team? Can the offensive line ever learn to block? Will they stay health? At what point will Urlacher punch Lovie for wasting his prime with stupid offensive schemes? And, above all else, is Cutler a leader?
12. NY Jets (1-1) - Good Sanchez? Bad Sanchez? Wither Tebow Christ?
11. Pittsburgh (1-1) - Again, porous offensive line, aging defense, no running game... can this team win with great coaching and Big Ben?
10. Denver (1-1) - Can Peyton stay healthy? Can he throw deep down field? How will he do now that his remaining 14 games are outdoors?

The Teams With The Talent To Win (should be factor because...)

9. San Diego (2-0) - They've had talent for awhile... but they still have Norv...
8. Baltimore (1-1) - They might have a more dynamic offense ... but are they getting old, and is Flacco consistent enough?
7. Green Bay (1-1) - they still have Rodgers ... but has he peaked?
6. Philadelphia (2-0) - they are talented ... but barely beat the Browns...
5. NY Giants (1-1) - They won it all last year ... but are off to an unimpressive start.
4. Atlanta (2-0) - They should have a clear run to the division title ... but is Matt Ryan ready to make the leap?
3. New England (1-1) - They have more defense this year ... but is Brady getting over the hill?
2. Houston (2-0) - They have offense and defense and have looked as good as they should.
1. San Francisco (2-0) - They look locked in and ready to go. Period.

With all that as the background, on to the picks:

- Last week against the spread: 9-6-1
- Last week straight up: 9-7
- Season against the spread: 16-15-1
- Season straight up: 17-15

Thursday Night

Giants (+3) over Carolina - This line seems off to me, so I'll take the Giants + the points in a game that ESPN is telling me is a toss up. Also, I just want to reiterate how absolutely stupid Thursday night football games are. On my list of reasons why Roger Goodell is the worst commissioner this side of Gary Bettman, this is somewhere on the top ten.

Sunday Early Games

Bears (-8) over St. Louis - I am giving Lovie one more chance: I'll be able to watch this one and I have some faith that the problem is just that Green Bay has some combination of his and Cutler's number. But if they don't look great in this game it might be time for the year's first "why can't we fire Lovie, this guy sucks" blog rants.

Buffalo (-3) over Cleveland - Assuming that the Bills actual level of performance fall somewhere between their week one debacle against the Jets and last week's evisceration of the Chiefs, this line seems right.

Tampa Bay (+8) over Dallas (Dallas straight up) - I think Dallas will bounce back to win, but I get the feeling that Tampa will be a tough out. Of course, if Dallas loses my uncle will get a week of "what's wrong with the Cowboys" sports radio... which is nice.

Detroit (-4) over Tennessee - I've exited the Titans bandwagon. I just hope that the Lions porous defense can resurrect Chris Johnson's corpse for my fantasy team's well being.

Indianapolis (-3) over Jacksonville - Really this comes down to a simple formula in my mind: Luck > Gabbert.

Jets (-3) over Miami - This just feels like the Jets bouncing back to establish their place as one of the better teams that isn't really that good. Miami, on the other hand? I'll just say that Rex Ryan might give up his defensive genius card if he can't take advantage of Tannehill.

San Francisco (-8) over Minnesota - As you can see from my power rankings, I'm in on the 49ers.

New Orleans (-9) over Kansas City - A stoppable force meets a moveable object! I think coach Brees can find a way against Coach Romeo. Just saying.

Cincinnati (+3) over Washington - Just a hunch here, but this game is the perfect line and could go either way.

Sunday Late Games

Philadelpia (+4) over Arizona- This  HAS to be where the wheels come off for Arizona, right? RIGHT?

Atlanta (+3) over San Diego - Norv Turner can't start 3-0... right?

Houston (-3) over Denver - Until Peyton Manning proves he can throw the ball 50+ yards in the air I've got questions. Houston should be able to cover the spread on the road here. This should be the game of the day, however.

Pittsburgh(+5) over Oakland - Based on my power rankings I shouldn't think about this. So I won't.

Sunday Night Game

New England (+3) over Baltimore - If New England hadn't inexplicably crapped the bed last week this is Patriots -3. I'll take the points, but this game should tell us a great deal about both teams.

Monday Night Game

Green Bay (-4) over Seattle - I can't root for Green Bay (unlike my brother), and I'm always hoping for the epic "Rodgers throws for six TDs, 700 yards, and the Packers STILL Lose"... but I need to see something from Mr. Rodgers right about now for my fantasy season. I think he does it here.