And here we are, once again, ready for some football. Even watching Alabama tear Michigan apart couldn't change one fact, one reality: the NFL is king. And, at the present time, no sport (professional or "amateur") can even lay siege to the crown. Concussion worries, official lockout, player safety concerns at an all time high... none of it matters. Fantasy football, 60 inch home TVs with HD, gambling... it all points to the NFL as king.
Before we dive in, in case you are curious about previous years, here are links to my 2011, 2010, and 2009 (In the 2009 article you'll find a recap of the 2008, 2007 and 2006 preseason super bowl predictions from my previous blog as well).
Last year I picked the Pats correctly to win the AFC, and in 2010 I picked the Steelers correctly to win the AFC. In 2009 I failed to pick anyone correctly for the Super Bowl (blame that one on the Jay Cutler honeymoon phase of my life), but in 2008 I picked the Steelers correctly to win it all. In 2007 I picked the Pats correctly to win the AFC, and then, in 2006, I had picked the Colts to beat the Bears in the super bowl (still wish I could take that one back). Long story short, I've managed to correctly pick at least one Super Bowl contender in five of six years. Looking closer, however, and I can safely place much of the responsibility for that great record on the fact that I've ridden the Pats and Steelers hard each year. This year? Well, you'll just have to see if I'm still riding those teams, or if I'm going to go outside of the box for the AFC (the NFC, mind you, I'm only 1 for 6 on in the last six years, and zero for my last five).
As a final disclaimer, I don't take the time to research who plays who to determine exact records. The records below, in fact, couldn't actually happen (probably anyway) as they probably don't add up. On to the picks:
AFC East
1. New England (12-4)
2. Buffalo (9-7)
3. NY Jets (7-9)
4. Miami (6-10)
The reasoning: New England has the NFL's most high octane passing game and just added a deep target for the first time since Randy Moss was breaking records in their 16-0* year. They also added a great deal of depth to the defense, which should help given that their team was one of the worst on defense last year. The big reason to pick New England here is that, in light of their defeat last year in the Super Bowl, you can expect Brady and company to be hyper focused on winning it all. Brady is still one ring short of being able to open the Brady V Montana book for greatest of all time, and after watching what happened to Manning I'm sure Tom realizes tomorrow is not guaranteed to anyone. The rest of the division depends heavily on what you believe about quarter back play and defense. I believe that Fitzpatrick is a much better QB than Sanchez/Tebow (Sanchbow? Tebez?) or Tannehill (usually not a good sign when your rookie QB couldn't complete passes with accuracy in college). In fact, the only reason that I'm not placing the Jets dead last in this division is because I really think Tannehill will be that bad. I also believe the Bills defense will be improved, while the Jets continues to back slide (Revis is the only thing holding them together). Long story short, this division is still the Patriots to lose, and I don't think they will.
AFC North
1. Baltimore (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh (9-7)
3. Cincinnati (7-9)
4. Cleveland (3-13)
The reasoning: first, after picking Cleveland to make the playoffs last year (I plea concussion on that one), I had to put them back down. I don't believe drafting modern era Chris Wienke was the right move, let alone starting him, and I just could see it being another long year in Cleveland (besides, when was the last time something went well for Cleveland sports fans). Beyond Cleveland, the division is a bit of a toss up for me. Baltimore's defense is aging and the loss of Terrell Suggs will hurt quite a bit. But Pittsburgh's defense is equally old and the Pittsburgh offense is minus their starting running back and their offensive line is in shambles (for, by my count, year ten in a row). I believe in Big Ben much more than Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh's receivers are, on paper, better than Baltimore's are. Still, something just tells me that the Steelers are in for a down year, and that Baltimore will do just enough to put it together to win the division. As for the Bengals, I don't believe in their coach, and I think that a regression back makes sense for this team. Moving forward, however, this division may be Cincinnati's to lose as the Ravens and Steelers continue to age.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (11-5)
2. Tennessee Titans (10-6)
3. Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
The reasoning: Houston always finds a way to play back towards the pack and I don't see that ending this year. I expect a big bounce back year for Chris Johnson in Tennessee, and Jake Locker has all the tools to become a quality starting QB in the NFL. I think that Luck will have a more successful rookie year than Peyton did, but much of that is due to the change in NFL rules since 1998. As for the Jags, I'm not sure I like much of anything coming out of Jacksonville this year. I would say there is an outside chance that the Colts could make a run at this division, but I still can't buy into the Rookie QB leading a ten game turn around angle. So, for now, this is the best stab at it.
AFC West
1. Kansas City (11-5)
2. San Diego (8-8)
3. Denver (8-8)
4. Oakland (6-10)
The reasoning: This division is an entire toss up and I could easily see any of these four teams ending the year in first. The Chiefs promise to have a tough running game and solid defense, leaving their biggest question mark at QB with Matt Cassel. The Chargers have the most talent of any team in the division, but they also have a history of underachieving greatly and they have Norv Turner inexplicably still entrenched as their head coach. Denver has the biggest question mark of all in Peyton Manning's health. Oakland seems to be mired in an era of "whatever can go wrong will go wrong." In other words, I could see this division end in the exact opposite way I've predicted here and I wouldn't be surprised. But, for now, I see Kansas City and their easier schedule moving up to first.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia (12-4)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (7-9)
4. Washington (6-10)
The reasoning: The year after the "Dream Team" fell apart in Philly I see some rebound with a defense that looked great at the end of last year and an offense that is capable of scoring in bunches. The Giants always tend to trend backwards after a great year, and I see that staying consistent this year. All the injuries in Dallas already bode for a long year for the team and Washington should make some strides with a QB under center more talented than Grossman, but I still see them bringing up the rear in this division.
NFC North
1. Chicago (13-3)
2. Green Bay (10-6)
3. Detroit (9-7)
4. Minnesota (5-11)
The reasoning: the biggest concern that I have about picking my Bears to finish first is Urlacher's bulky knee. I have a hard time believing that he will be able to play at anything close to 100% this year, and, as we've seen in the past, Urlacher tends to be the key to a successful defense in Chicago. The Bears have the talent to overcome, but only if Lovie is actually willing to run a defense outside of his Tampa 2 (history indicates he probably won't). That said, the Bears should have by far the most dynamic offense in my life time, if not team history. And, if recent NFL history has shown us anything its that you can skimp on defense if your offense can move the ball. As for Green Bay, I see some regression for them, particularly with no running game or defense to speak of. I see the same for Detroit, and (spoiler) I see this as a lull that leads to their coach getting fired when it carries into next year. Minnesota, playing with three playoff caliber teams in their division, will be lucky to get to five or six wins.
NFC South
1. Atlanta (12-4)
2. New Orleans (10-6)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (6-10)
The reasoning: With New Orleans hamstrung by suspensions I see the door opening for the Falcons to make the jump, so to speak, into the upper half of the NFC title contenders. I still see New Orleans, led by Drew Brees, making a push for a good record. I think that Cam Newton will struggle more than people expect in year two (given his final eight games last year) and I think that there is plenty of work to do in Tampa before the Bucs are ready to compete for the division.
NFC West
1. San Francisco (10-6)
2. St. Louis (9-7)
3. Seattle (7-9)
4. Arizona (4-12)
The reasoning: I'm still not sold on this division as being anything other than a cakewalk for out of division foes, but I suppose that San Francisco's defensive advantage and coaching advantage gives them the edge here. I think St. Louis will see a big bounce back from Sam Bradford, and Jeff Fisher tends to be able to take even poor teams into the average category. From there on out Seattle is starting a rookie third round pick, and Arizona is in shambles.
AFC Playoffs (in order of seed)
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Baltimore
4. Kansas City
5. Tennessee
6. Buffalo
NFC Playoffs (in order seed)
1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. San Francisco
5. Green Bay
6. New Orleans
First Round:
1. Baltimore over Buffalo
2. Tennessee over Kansas City
3. Atlanta over New Orleans
4. Green Bay over San Francisco
Second Round:
1. New England over Tennessee
2. Baltimore over Houston
3. Chicago over Green Bay
4. Atlanta over Philadelphia
Championship Games:
1. New England over Baltimore
2. Chicago over Atlanta
Super Bowl:
New England over Chicago
And there you have it: the 2012 NFL Preview. I went back to the well with the Patriots as my pick, as well as with Chicago as my pick for the third time in seven years. If it ends up being Pats and Bears right now you have to go with the Pats given their experience and their huge coaching advantage. But, if history is any indicator, there will be far more turnover among playoff teams than shown here. No matter what, it should be a fun time.
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