The POV NFL Preview - Wither Chicago?

It's that magical time of year again, where I get to write my favorite post: my NFL predictions. I am pressed for time this year, and so I won't recount my past successes and failures as I have in years past, but I take pride in the fact that I generally get more right than wrong. That said, this year I'm troubled because NOBODY wants to predict good things for my Bears. I mean nobody. Not even the Chicago media is drinking the kool-aid coming out of the Windy City. And ... I tend to agree with them. I said earlier that I had them pegged for 7-9 and third in the division, but could they be even worse than that? Such has been the struggle in my mind. But the season starts tomorrow, and I've got to make my picks before the start of the year. So I'll put aside my Bears' generated anguish and move forward.

This year, more than any other, I think that teams which have been together for awhile are going to succeed. No offseason workouts, no OTAs, nothing... that adds up to veteran teams succeeding. But in recent NFL history we know that half of the playoff field turns over... so I have to take that into consideration too. As a reminder, I pick records that make sense to me, but I don't take the time to see if all the records combined together would work. With that said, here are my predictions for the upcoming NFL season:

AFC East

1. New England - 13-3
2. New York - 10-6
3. Miami - 7-9
4. Buffalo - 5-11

The Reasoning: The Pats seem focused, and I'm sure that they are driven to get over the hump from the last few years of failing to win the Super Bowl. Last year's defeat, at the hands of the Jets, has to be eating at them. I like their veteran additions: Belicheck tends to get a good deal out of players like Haynsworth, Ochocinco, and Ellis. Brady is still the best QB in the game, bar none, and he is right in his prime. There is too much to like not to think they'll succeed. Plus, they are a veteran team that knows one another. As for the Jets, try as I might, I do not believe in Mark Sanchez, not even a little bit. He has a weak arm, is not accurate ... he's like the worst combination of Chad Pennington's arm strength and Ryan Leaf's accuracy (okay ... maybe Jeff George's accuracy). He is a "winner" for whatever that's worth, but he's also playing in NYC, with a bunch of giant egos, and that is a house of cards. They have enough talent that they will hold on to the Wild Card, but I don't see them giving New England a real run for their money during the regular season. Miami and Buffalo are a toss up, but I'll side with the Dolphins because they have more top level talent (Jake Long first and foremost), although they may not have a passing game or a running game this year at all. In Buffalo, I wish the Fitzpatrick experiment the best, but trading Lee Evans did not help. Poor Buffalo.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - 11-5
2. Cleveland Browns - 9-7
3. Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
4. Cincinnati Bengals - 1-15

The Reasoning: I'm going bottom up this time: Cincinnati has a chance to be historically bad. I would not be shocked if they competed for the Lions 0-16 "record." They are starting a QB that is going to be woefully underqualified for the job, with a rookie WR (never a good match), a RB with no heart (great 5 days in jail Cedric!), and a poor offensive line. Their defense isn't bad, but it isn't amazing either. This team should have a chance to draft Andrew Luck next year so that he can retire if they don't trade him. As for the rest of the division, Pittsburgh meets my criteria of minimal turnover and knowing each other. Baltimore doesn't; they are packing in every available veteran right now, but, unlike New England, they don't have a history of doing well with end of the road vets. Cleveland has a very easy schedule, doesn't play Pittsburgh or Baltimore until the final five weeks of the season, and if they go into that final five at 8-3 or 7-4 I wouldn't be shocked. At that point I think they'll need to split with Baltimore (possible) to hold on to second in the division. Either way, this division is Pittsburgh's to lose, and you can expect a big year out of Big Ben (if he can stay upright behind such a shoddy offensive line).

AFC South

1. Houston Texans - 9-7
2. Tennessee Titans - 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts - 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars - 5-11

The Reasoning: Why did I just start putting team names in with the teams? I have no idea. I also have no idea what to make of Peyton Manning. The man hasn't missed a game, always comes through, and never loses this division (thanks to Commissioner Tags for giving Peyton an easy division for his prime!). Manning is as consistent as can be. And now? Who knows what to say or think? I, personally, will be shocked if he isn't out there Sunday. How can he not be? I've been waiting for years to stop saying "this is the year the Colts fall" and actually have it be the year. Peyton has pulled an all time epic on us in front of our faces, only his lack of post-season success made us blind to it. This Colts team legitimately died four years ago when they started missing on every single draft pick, but he kept them winning divisions. Without him? Let's just say that 8-8 is how I think they will be if he misses 4-6 weeks. If he misses the whole year, they may be 3-13. As for the rest of the division, Del Rio cutting Garrard was a desperate move by a desperate man, and I don't see it ending well. Tennessee has the potential for a good offense and a competent defense, although their lack of coaching will hurt (most inexperienced staff in the league). Houston is my reluctant pick, although I know that everyone is on their bandwagon, and that they will choke. Or try to. Actually, if Manning can even give the Colts ten games of real Manning (back by week five or so), they may be ok.

AFC West

1. San Diego - 12-4
2. Oakland - 8-8
3. Denver - 6-10
4. Kansas City - 5-11

The Reasoning: with time limited before class, I'll speed by this one:

A) The Chargers have more talent than the other teams combined
B) Kansas City is due for a major regression to the mean
C) Oakland seems poised for the jump (as they have for years now)
D) Denver will improve, but has too far to go.


NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys - 11-5
2. New York Giants - 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles - 8-8
4. Washington Redskins - 6-10

The Reasoning: Stay with me here: I think Philly is due for a major crash. I don't buy Vick staying healthy or getting as lucky as he did with interceptions last year. Their offensive line makes the Bears' line look good. They have a ton of egos, and a moron backup QB who already labeled them the team of destiny. I see them struggling big time out of the gate and not righting the ship quick enough. In the interim, Dallas will succeed for the opposite reason: minimal hype (for them), uniformity on the team, and being humbled by last year's experience. New York has had a ton of injuries, but will be healthier by the time their schedule picks up. Washington is starting Rex Grossman. 'Nuff Said.

NFC North

1. Green Bay - 12-4
2. Detroit Lions - 10-6
3. Chicago Bears - 7-9
4. Minnesota Vikings - 6-10

The Reasoning: The Bears may well finish a lot lower than this, but I don't have the heart to be that honest with myself. If Aaron Rodgers stays healthy then the damn Pack is probably secure as the top team. Detroit has a good chance to make the leap this year with a tough defense and a good offense if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy. Minnesota has a washed up veteran QB, and a defense and offensive line that is breaking down. Sound familiar? At any rate, expect another lost year Bears fans. Because, as Lovie said this offseason, he feels no pressure now that he got a contract extension. No, seriously, he said that. Look it up.

NFC South

1. New Orleans - 12-4
2. Atlanta - 10-6
3. Tampa Bay - 8-8
4. Carolina - 2-14

The Reasoning: Tampa will regress to the mean after a year in which they took advantage of an easy schedule and had an improbably low INT rate from Josh Freeman. Atlanta has the tools, but New Orleans has the experience and the stability that I'm looking for. Carolina is going to be a train wreck, and I think that Cam Newton is Vince Young redux. And (Forrest Gump voice) "that's all I've got to say about that."

NFC West

1. St. Louis - 8-8
2. Arizona - 7-9
3. Seattle - 4-12
4. San Francisco - 3-13

The Reasoning: does it matter? This division is awful, and whatever team gets to play it for its' out of conference opponent has a huge competitive advantage over anyone in the field. Kinda like Happy Gilmore and his long drive. I need to get Apollo Creed in here to give the speech, but you get the point. I think that St. Louis and Arizona will battle it out, and one of them might get to .500 this year, as they are the only two teams with even a bit of promise at the QB position at this time.

The Playoffs (teams listed in order of seed)

AFC Playoff Teams: New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston, NY Jets, Cleveland (gulp!)


NFC Playoff Teams: New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, Atlanta, Detroit

Wild Card: Jets over Texans, Steelers over Browns, Cowboys over Falcons, Lions over Rams

Divisional round: Patriots over Jets, Steelers over Chargers, Saints over Lions, Cowboys over Packers

Conference Finals: Patriots over Steelers, Saints over Cowboys

Superbowl: Patriots over Saints

And that's your NFL this year: not quite as random as a box of chocolates, but with some fun mixed in. Unless you're a Bears fan. Then you'll just be wondering why they had to extend him...