NFL Picks - Week 3

Rushed, but in rushed form is better than me giving up my quest to give you bad gambling info after only two weeks.

Last week against the spread: 8-7-1
Last week straight up: 13-3 (read dialogue on Jets and Pats games)

Season against the spread: 14-16-2
Season straight up: 21-11

So ... that looks better. I had a great week picking winners, missing only on the Ravens, the Cardinals and the Rams. Against the spread, I made some picks that seemed like good ideas at the time (take the Chargers and Jags plus the points even though you don't think they will win outright), that went down in flames. The lesson as always: only take a dog if you think they can win the game. I didn't think they could win, I took them, and I missed.

Without delay, here are this week's picks, with quick hit thoughts:

Sunday Early Games

New England (-9) over Buffalo

This is what I put down, but then I looked at the statistics, and let's just say that I'm going to change my pick based on the following: Buffalo has a top ten passing defense right now, New England has the second worst passing defense right now, and both these teams have offenses. I will straddle the pole again and pick the Pats to win, but the Bills to cover, and no I did not learn my lesson from last week.

Buffalo (+9) over New England

(Please note: when Tom Brady has thrown for his third first quarter TD to give the Pats a three score lead in the first quarter I will be shaking my head slowly ... at myself.

San Francisco (+3) over Cincinnati

Words cannot describe how little I like this Bengals team, but my repeated picking against them (I plan on going against them for sixteen games this year) will show it.

Cleveland (-3) over Miami

I struggled with this one before remembering that I picked Cleveland to make the playoffs, so they need to win this game. That's how you decide a coin flip: by who you'd like to see win.

Denver (+7) over Tennessee

Okay ... the Titans just went from a seven point dog to a seven point favorite in one week? Is the difference between Baltimore and Denver that great? These lines seem to be blowing in the wind as if Vegas doesn't know what to do with them. I'll go against the Titans again, but with the points this time.

Detroit (-4) over Minnesota

Did you know Detroit has covered something like eight games in a row? Did you know that we have no indisputable video evidence that Donovan McNabb has a pulse? When you combine those factors you end up with a very scary 3-0 Lions team after this week.

New Orleans (-4) over Houston

This line is WAAAAYYYYY to small. I'd take the Saints -7 here. If I had a bookie, I would be on the phone with him right away. We all do realize that the Saints lost to the defending champs, then throttled a Bears team that beat Atlanta ... who just beat Philly ... and that the Saints were (-7) over the Bears. And they were home. And now they are home against an overhyped Houston team who played Miami (bad) and the Colts (worse)? Is anyone listening? I need to search for the nearest sports book and put some money on this one.

Philadelphia (PK) over NY Giants

If Vick is healthy this looks laughable for you: a pick em (even line) against a beat up Giants team that has the Rex Grossman of Mannings playing for them? If he doesn't go, this becomes more realistic. I'm guessing Vegas thinks Vick doesn't go, or isn't healthy. I'm thinking that hit wasn't that bad in reality. Jim McMahon ate hits like those for breakfast.

Jacksonville (+4) over Carolina

I looked at these teams and promised myself I'd take the points because neither team should be favored. Thank goodness this wasn't a pick em; I wouldn't know what to do.

SUNDAY LATE GAMES

Oakland (+4) over NY Jets

The Jets fooled me once ... last week ... when they throttled a bad Jacksonville offense with such ferocity that it overcame another stink bomb by Dirty Sanchez. I might be crazy, but I kinda like Oakland's swagger. Actually, I'm probably crazy, but I'm starting Oakland's D this weekend, so there.

Ravens (-4) over St. Louis

So last week the Ravens are overvalued at Tennessee ... this week they get only four against the Rams? A team that got killed by a not so good Giants team? Check please?

San Diego (-15) over Kansas City

Could this line be high enough that I would take KC? Let's just say that I'm starting to wonder if the entire team has a fantasy of Andrew Luck starting at Arrow Head. Two huge stink bombs in a row ... so no. It couldn't be. The -15 didn't even phase me. Does Tom Brady play the Chiefs this year, because he might hit 1,000 passing yards in that game if he does.

Green Bay (-4) over Chicago

Packers beat Saints ... Saints favored by -7 against Chicago ... Packers play Bears ... Packers only favored by 4 over Bears. Hmmm....

Cardinals (-4) against Seattle

Dear Ken Wisenhunt: please enjoy another victory, courtesy of Pete Carol's fascination with crappy QBs. You thought Whitehurst was bad enough ... here's Tavaris Jackson. Seriously, we couldn't want Andrew Luck any more, and we already got San Fran to win a game. We rule. Sincerely, Seahawks front management.

Atlanta (+1) over Tampa Bay

I like Atlanta's mojo after winning against Philly last week.

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

Pittsburgh (-11) over the Indianapolis "oh where or where did my Manning go?" Colts

Again ... line couldn't be too high really. I'm surprised, after the Steelers covered (-15) against Seattle last week that they aren't in the same neighborhood this week against a really bad Colts team. I'm betting NBC thought this game would be a bigger draw when they picked it.

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

Cowboys (PK) over Washington

Rex Grossman, if you win again I'm going to sack you and puncture your lung. That's a bad Rex for being good Rex two weeks in a row. Don't hurt these fans by drawing them in only to let them down. Dan Snyder has done enough damage to last a lifetime. Bad Rex! BAD REX!!!