NFL - Week Two Picks

With NYC on the horizon this weekend I will make it two weeks in a row that I don't watch any NFL games. Of course, given the Bears shockingly strong performance against Atlanta last Sunday, maybe that's a good thing. As I mentioned last week I'll be picking the NFL games this week, with some thoughts as to the likely outcomes. I'll pick against the spread, but I'll also try to indicate who I like separate from the gambling. Since I have to pick so early in the week (and take any opportunity to write I have) I won't be able to take into account late injury news, which isn't the best ... but I'm sure you'll forgive me.

Last week I had the following numbers:

Against the spread: 6-9-1
Straight Up: 8-8

In other words, not a very good week. In fact, a pretty bad one. The highlights:

- The Packers-Saints shootout that I should have won on the spread, if not straight up, if New Orleans doesn't call that asinine up the gut run play to end it.
- The Bears beating the Falcons in every phase of the game, and looking uber competent while doing it.
- Cincinnati getting their one win of the year against one of my "sleeper" teams, Cleveland
- The Bills looking good, and the Rams getting so injured that they might have lost their advantage in the NFC West after one week.
- Pittsburgh getting owned by Baltimore.
- New England looking unstoppable in the air.

Year after year we are told, and sometimes taught, not to take one week and extrapolate that over a whole year. So I'm going to stay patient this week and try to stick to my guns, assuming that last week just had some crazy games in it. After I take another beating, I'll change my strategy for week two. On to the picks (all lines courtesy of ESPN.com):

Sunday Early Games

Buffalo (-4) over Oakland

The Bills looked crazy good last week, whereas Oakland looked just good enough to beat a crappy Broncos team. Fitzpatrick has had a year run now where he's looked somewhere between a competent QB and an All-Pro level QB. At some point you'd think he would have to give, but what if this guy is a modern day Kurt Warner who just has the magic? I mean, he's throwing to crappy receivers and still takes the game over. On the other hand, my dad will probably start him in fantasy football this week, almost assuredly jinxing him. I think Buffalo may be sneaky good, so I'll take them here.

Detroit (-9) over Kansas City

NINE POINTS?!?!?!?! These are the Lions we're talking about, right? They barely hold on against Tampa and now they are giving nine points? This line feels like a bad combo of Vegas loving Detroit and over reacting to how badly KC flopped last week. But the game is in Detroit, they do have a fearsome defensive line, and they can throw the ball. Still, how high would this line be if it were KC at Green Bay? Green Bay (-28)? I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the line were two points lower, but given this line I'll still ride Detroit. I'm just not happy about it.

Baltimore (-7) over Tennessee

This is one instance where I'll admit I might have been wrong after one week, and I'll jump (hesitantly) onto the Ravens bandwagon. The defense looked better than ever, the offense looked great, and they were playing a good Steelers team. That said, Pittsburgh fans will have to wait a decade to see their team play that bad again. And Baltimore isn't that good. But Chris Johnson is rusty, and as much as I can see this going the other way, I think a push is the most likely, so I'll take the -7 and the better team.

Cleveland (-3) over Indianapolis

This is a great matchup for the Browns, and right when they need it after laying an egg against Cincinnati. When was the last time that Indy was the dog at home? Peyton's rookie year? I had to double take to make sure I was reading this right. Indy is in real trouble, and they might be smart to pull a San Antonio circa 1998 and tank for Andrew Luck.

Tampa Bay (+3) over Minnesota

Boy McNabb looked bad last week. And Tampa has to be fired up after having their "up and coming team of the NFC" title usurped by Detroit. I'll take the fired up better team plus the points happily. And for nostalgia factors, remember when these teams used to play in the same division?

New Orleans (-7) over Chicago

Very tricky Vegas, putting this line just high enough that I almost jumped at my Bears and said "hell yes, give me the points." I know better; you're just trying to reverse jinx me. I will not take my Bears over my NFC Super Bowl pick. Chicago, you may proceed with proving me wrong. Again. For the second straight week.

Jacksonville (+9) over NY Jets

Here's my case: the Jets just played a game that their coach declared more important than the Super Bowl, looked toasted in it, then miraculously came back because Tony Romo loves his country and couldn't bear to see the Jets lose at home on the tenth anniversary of 9/11, so he threw the game (and you can't convince me otherwise ... Romo LOVES his country ok? He wouldn't do anything to hurt it! He had to lose that game!). Now they have a universally panned Jags team coming in, and everyone looks at this line and says "that can't be high enough. The Jags just cut their starting QB. They are awful." Let's just say that I think the Jets will win, but I think the Jags keep it really close. It's called emotional let down people.

Pittsburgh (-15) over Seattle

Are you kidding me? +15? That line is so asininely high that I had to go check another website to see if ESPN was just screwing with me. According to Vegas.com it's 14.5. Okay, so let me get this straight: Pittsburgh get's killed, looks incompetent, and generally craps the bed ... and then they get favored by more than two TDs? The Tavaris Jackson effect sports fans ... he's so bad I can't pick him even with 15 points being fronted.

Arizona (+5) over Washington

Now we've seen good Rex. Are you ready for bad Rex Redskins fans? Arizona may not be the team to do it against him since Cam Newton shredded them last week, but it's coming. Oh yes, it's coming (insert evil laugh here)

Green Bay (-11) over Carolina

This line cannot be high enough. Cam Newton is overvalued at this point. I would lay two full TDs.

Sunday Late Games

Dallas (-3) over San Francisco

Now that Tony Romo saved the world by throwing the 9/11 game he can get back to doing what he does best: picking apart bad teams to make himself look good. Up next, a San Francisco team that was celebrating their victory over Seattle, then went "wait a minute, we want to lose so we can get Andrew Luck! Dammit! I knew something felt wrong!"

Denver (-5) over Cincinnati

Denver's bad. Cincinnati can't win again or I'm obligated to give you all a money back guarantee on this blog.

Houston (-3) over Miami

I mean ... did you SEE what Brady did to this Miami secondary? Schaub's gotta be able to at least come close right? And with a better running game?

San Diego (+7) over New England

Tough game for the Pats on a short week. Let's just say that I'll be at a concert for this one, but I think that San Diego can hang with the Pats, making this line fair, but I'll take the points and a late Brady drive for a Gostkowski field goal for the Pats win.

Sunday Night Game

Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia

Vick returns to Atlanta, who is coming off an embarrassing loss to Chicago. If Atlanta loses this one they are in a heap of trouble. My advice? Hit Vick early, hit him often, and rile the crowd up.

Monday Night Game

Rams (+5) over Giants

Both these teams are so decimated by injury that they should probably agree to tie and take the week off to heal. I'll take the points because I have no idea which way this one will go. It probably depends on good Eli versus bad Eli.