Wednesday, September 12, 2012

2012 NFL Picks Week 2

This week I will miss every football game due to work (Thursday and Sunday) and Class (Monday). I am officially tired of doing 80+ hours of work, school and practicum every week. I made it to the half way point of my 3rd of 32 weeks before announcing it on a blog. I think that's a victory.

Anyway, a reminder that I pull the lines right from ESPN.com on the scoreboard page. Before I dive into the week 2 picks, last week I went:
- 7 and 9 against the spread
- 8 and 8 straight up.

Not the best start, but something manageable to build on for the rest of the year.

On to this week's picks:

-  Chicago (+6) over Green Bay (Chicago straight up) - Cutler to Green Bay secondary: "enjoy Brandon Marshall: try playing physical with him." I'm generally not in favor of too much trash talking when the opponent has owned your jock (literally, I think the Packers have owned Jay's jock since he came over from Denver). I'm going to take this as not so quiet confidence rather than being overzealous. Either way, I'll be at work all night so I'll have to get updates via the cell phone. HUGE bummer. Thursday night NFL games are stupid.

Sunday early games

- Bills (-3) over Chiefs - I'm already regretting my preseason predictions for both of these teams. A special thanks Chan Gailey and Romeo Crennel for only taking one week to remind me why they are bad coaches. Are the Jets and the Falcons that good, or were these teams that bad? Either way, I'll drink the CJ Spiller Kool-Aid for one week at least... while I start him on my fantasy team.

- Cincinnati (-7) over Cleveland - One week after Baltimore showed the Bengals how they play football in the big boys league they get Brandon Weeden (he of the 5.1 QB rating). It's like comfort food, right? The logic here is simple: Cincinnati can't be as bad as they looked last week, but Cleveland easily can.

- Indianapolis (+2) over Minnesota - I think Andrew Luck will be motivated after all the RG3 talk he's hearing this week. Minnesota has a good pass rush, and Peterson looked fine last week, but Luck has the ability and will put it all together a number of weeks this year. I believe this may be one of them.

- Oakland (-3) over Miami - Yes, I think Ryan Tannehill his that bad. Look up Kyle Boller for my favorite comparison. Still, with the whole "west coast team coming east" thing it would make me feel a whole lot better if this line were under the field goal line.

-  New England (-14) over Arizona - Check please!

- Tampa (+9) over NY Giants (Giants straight up) - I didn't do so hot with my hedges last week, but I'll try to hedge the Giants again and see if I have any more luck. I liked what I read about the Bucs defense last week, and I didn't like what I saw out of the Giants against Dallas.

- Ravens (+3) over Philadelphia - Did nearly losing to the Weeden disaster wake Philly up? No matter what, that Ravens offense looked even better than advertised on Monday night. Give me the points.

- Carolina (+3) over New Orleans - I tried to hedge last week with the Saints, but I fear that this may be one of those years where everything that can go wrong will go wrong for my friends in New Orleans.

- Houston (-8) over Jacksonville - is Houston ready to make the jump? If they are, this should be an easy line for them to cover.

Sunday Late Games

- Rams (+3) over Washington - I think Jeff Fisher will have a game plan to stop RGIII and the Baylor offense that Washington ran effectively against New Orleans last week.

- Dallas (-3) over Seattle - I don't know why this line isn't higher. I know that given the home field advantage this really makes Dallas a six point favorite, but doesn't it feel like it should be higher after what we saw last week for both of these teams? 

- Jets (+6) over Pittsburgh - it was only one week, but until the Jets show they aren't that good, or the Steelers prove they aren't too old, I've got to take the points for the road dog here.

- Tennessee (+6) over San Diego (Charger straight up) - a second hedge, but one I don't feel much of anything about. How's that for saying "I wouldn't bet on this game if you gave me your money to do it"?

Sunday Night Football

- San Francisco (-7) over Detroit - The Lions barely escaped last week against the Rams. Meanwhile, the 49ers thumped Green Bay convincingly. Furthermore, Harbaugh is the hot head to pick in the coaching matchup. Again, I wish I wasn't working all day Sunday so I could live blog the handshake here.

Monday Night Football

- Atlanta (-3) over Denver - I'll give Atlanta the benefit of the doubt here, but Michael Turner looked washed up last week, and Peyton looked like the Peyton of pre-neck surgery. This really is a toss up in my mind, which is why the line is where it is.

Enjoy football everyone! Please, do it for me :-)

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