2012 NFL Week Picks - Week Six

Last week against the spread: 8-6
Last week straight up: 10-4

Season against the spread: 42-33-2
Season straight up: 49-28

Another solid week last week, finishing ahead against the spread and a solid 10-4 straight up. Eerily, as I look back to my week six picks last year, I started by posting my record, which was as follows:

"Last week against the spread: 9-4
Last week straight up: 10-3
Season against the spread: 38-37-2
Season straight up: 52-25"

So, at this point in the year I am doing much better against the spread and slightly worse straight up. That said, 21 games above .500 straight up isn't bad, and I'll always take nine games up on the spread every five weeks. This week I'm looking to build momentum, but during a dangerous week. Why is this week dangerous, you might ask? In fact, I'll answer this as if my millions (read: three) of readers were asking it aloud:

Question: Mike, why is this week dangerous?

Answer: Thanks millions (read: three) of faithful readers! I'll tell you why it's a dangerous week for me. You see, my fantasy football team has already decided it's not interested in commemorating Aaron Rodgers final season with my team by going for a fourth straight third place finish. Instead, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. To wit, my fiancee moved me up to the number six pick, the worst possible place to draft in our twelve team league this year. Then, Chris Johnson was the only option sitting at number six worth drafting (side note: I was unaware at the time that last year's "down" year for Chris Johnson was actually a great year compared to what he was going to bring to the table this year. In hindsight, I could have drafted Curtis Enis and probably been better off because at least I could cut Enis. But I digress). I followed that up by having Steven Jackson fall to me, then Larry Fitzgerald, then Brandon Lloyd. My draft plan was completely screwed up and the players I wanted kept getting taken right ahead of my pick. I took a plethora of 2nd tier running backs and wide receivers, needing to only hit on one or two to have a great team. I then hit on C.J. Spiller then watched him get injured and now am watching him get stuck in a running back by committee. Needless to say I'm 2-3, scoring nowhere near enough points to fathom making the playoff redraft, and I'm ready to sell off my team for draft picks next year. The problem with this? Nobody in my league wants to trade yet. So that's one reason why this week is dangerous: I'm checked out of fantasy football, so I'm not really paying attention to the other teams. The other reason is much simpler: the Bears are on a bye week, and I work all day Sunday, so I have nothing to draw me in this week.

So, with the challenge of fantasy apathy, a Bears' bye week, and a marathon double shift on Sunday, consider yourself warned: all the signs are there for a picks regression. Still, I'll try.

ON TO THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(New Orleans, Carolina and Jacksonville join Chicago on the bye ... that alone should make gambling more difficult with three stay away teams on the sideline)

Thursday Night Game

Pittsburgh (-5) over Tennessee - My thoughts: Pittsburgh has a running game again, and was able to beat a (supposedly) good Eagles team last week. Tennessee doesn't look good. The sad thing? I'll end up starting Chris Johnson again this week because I have no other good options.

Sunday Day Games

Atlanta (-9) over Oakland - My thoughts: Atlanta should be able to score on Oakland, and Palmer is liable to be down three, pressing, and throw a game ending TAINT (Touchdown After Interception). Or Atlanta might just kill them. Either way, this line would have to be 10+ for me to take the points and Oakland.

Cincinnati (-1) over Cleveland - My thoughts: This is free money, right? Even if Cincinnati is the "good bad team" this year, we also are sure that Cleveland is one of the "bad bad teams" right? Is Andy Dalton currently abducted by aliens? A.J. Green? How does this line makes sense?

St. Louis (+4) over Miami - My thoughts: I'm not sure if St. Louis is the best "good bad team" or the worst "bad good team" but I think I'll take more than three for them against a Miami team due for regression after last week.

Jets (-3) over Indianapolis - My thoughts: The Jets held it together against Houston; I think that Indy had their emotional win last week, and this becomes a defacto must win for Rex and the Jets. This feels like the game the Jets win that starts the "are the Jets going to be ok" talk. You know, the one that comes right before the next lopsided loss restarting the "should Tebow replace Sanchez" talk.

Philadelphia (-5) over Detroit - My thoughts: this game is like a movable object going up against a stoppable force. Andy Reid is a terrible coach. Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach. We will leave this game either thinking that the Eagles are frauds and not very good, or that the Lions are done. I hate giving points when Andy Reid is involved, but Detroit has looked bad, and Philly's defense is actually pretty good.

Tampa Bay (-3) over Kansas City - My thoughts: YUCK! That's my main thought about this game. My second thought would be when a home team is -3 that means Vegas thinks the game is even. The final thought: if you have to make a pick in this game, go against Romeo on the road.

Baltimore (-4) over Dallas - My thoughts: The Raven's disappointing game last week brings this line down way too far. I saw what can be done to Dallas when my Bears did it to them. Baltimore may have some flaws, but that team can do the same to Dallas

Sunday Late Games

Buffalo (+5) over Arizona - My thoughts: Buffalo has looked AWFUL the last two weeks. But Arizona continues to look worse and worse on offense; they have no running game, and no QB to throw the ball to Fitzgerald (remember, he's on my fantasy team so I know this). I'd stay away from this game entirely, but gun to head I'd take the points on the thoughts of a rebound game for Buffalo. (NOTE: After making this pick I found out Dave Wannstedt is the Bills defensive coordinator. That explains how their defense gave up over 1,200 yards in the last two games and nearly 100 points. Needless to say, I might take this game back if I could, but since I already wrote it I'll just hedge saying ARIZONA STRAIGHT UP. Also, how the hell is Dave Wannstedt still getting coaching jobs in football? Would you hire him to coach a pee-wee league team?)

New England (-4) over Seattle - My thoughts: this line seems low, and I like the way that New England is playing. Tough defense, tough running game, a little Brady sprinkled in ... holy crap, did I just time warp back to 2003?

San Francisco (-5) over NY Giants - My thoughts: revenge for the NFC title game. Also, San Fran is playing well, and the Giants just let Brandon Weeden roll 27 points up on them.

Minnesota (+2) over Washington - My thoughts: if Cousins is the QB this is a no brainer: take the points. If RGIII is healthy this becomes more of a tough question.

Sunday Night Game

Houston (-4) over Green Bay - My thoughts: a "season may be on the line early" type game for the Pack. Do you realize they are very close to being 1-4, and that the only team they showed up against was my Bears? Do you realize that if Houston wins this game we'll have the talking heads on ESPN talking all week about how Houston is Super Bowl bound, and the Packers are on life support? Do you realize that I'm a Bears fan, and that the Colts playing the Packers is the only possible scenario where I would root for the Colts ... so I celebrated the Packers' late choke last week? Do you realize I'm answering the "my thoughts" segment with only questions at this point?

Monday Night Game

Denver (+1) over San Diego - My thoughts: A week ago, San Diego was 3-1 and starting to get "the Chargers just MIGHT run away with this division" buzz. I'm amazed how many people forget that Norv Turner is still (inexplicably) coaching this team. Manning wins, both teams come out  3-3, and the buzz goes to "when will Norv get fired?" again. The world will feel more right at that point.


Enjoy football for me everyone, I'll be working. As always, Thursday night football SUCKS.